Pub Date : 2023-06-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.2.1
O. Rybakovsky
The article presents the results of the author’s regularly conducted general analysis of depopulation in the regions of Russia in the post-Soviet period. The results of population reproduction for the period from the beginning of 1992 to the end of 2022 are summed up. For all regions, a ranking was carried out according to the relative level of depopulation for the period, that is, by the share of population losses due to natural decline relative to the population at the beginning of depopulation in the country (1992). For each of the selected groups of territories, the contribution of structural and non-structural components of fertility and mortality to the formation of the final natural decline of a particular region is indicated. Similarly, those few territories of Russia in which there was no depopulation for 31 years (in total) were investigated. The role of demographic structural waves in the formation of the current scale of depopulation in most of the country’s territories is emphasized. It is concluded that the depopulation is not only the result of a low fertility and high mortality of the population of the regions of Russia, but also a consequence of the negative age structure of the population, and in some periods of time — and the downward demographic structural wave. To get out of the depopulation, the demographic policy should be carried out differentially in time and territorially. The active phase of the pronatalist demographic policy should begin at the descent of the demographic structural wave, and not on the rise, as it has already happened in the history of Russia twice since 1980, which only increased the wave-like age structure of the country’s population.
{"title":"Depopulation in the regions of Russia: results for 1992–2022 and components","authors":"O. Rybakovsky","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.2.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.2.1","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the results of the author’s regularly conducted general analysis of depopulation in the regions of Russia in the post-Soviet period. The results of population reproduction for the period from the beginning of 1992 to the end of 2022 are summed up. For all regions, a ranking was carried out according to the relative level of depopulation for the period, that is, by the share of population losses due to natural decline relative to the population at the beginning of depopulation in the country (1992). For each of the selected groups of territories, the contribution of structural and non-structural components of fertility and mortality to the formation of the final natural decline of a particular region is indicated. Similarly, those few territories of Russia in which there was no depopulation for 31 years (in total) were investigated. The role of demographic structural waves in the formation of the current scale of depopulation in most of the country’s territories is emphasized. It is concluded that the depopulation is not only the result of a low fertility and high mortality of the population of the regions of Russia, but also a consequence of the negative age structure of the population, and in some periods of time — and the downward demographic structural wave. To get out of the depopulation, the demographic policy should be carried out differentially in time and territorially. The active phase of the pronatalist demographic policy should begin at the descent of the demographic structural wave, and not on the rise, as it has already happened in the history of Russia twice since 1980, which only increased the wave-like age structure of the country’s population.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42590250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.2.9
E. Skvortsova
The article analyzes digitalization indicators of the Russian general education system provided by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), as well as data from a secondary analysis of the results of the sociological survey “Teenagers 360°” (within the framework of the strategic program “Teenagers Russia” of the Commissioner for Children’s Rights under the President of the Russian Federation) and other sources. The following indicators are considered as indicators: the indicator of the use of special software tools available to students in educational organizations; the number of students using e-learning and distance learning technologies; the number of students in organizations engaged in educational activities under additional general educational programs for children; the proportion of children attending additional educational classes; the purposes of using the Internet by children. Their dynamics over the past few years is traced. The interpretation of the digitalization impact on education is presented at the quantitative and qualitative levels. There are analyzed the opinions of specialists in the field of social and pedagogical sciences, teachers and physicians directly related to education and childhood on the digitalization impact on health, mental abilities, assimilation of knowledge and acquisition of craft and work skills. It is concluded that the excessive introduction of digital technologies in all sectors of domestic general education, including additional school education, can interfere with acquisition and systematization of basic knowledge and not contribute to upbringing of the younger generation in a traditional and moral way. Digital educational innovations are perhaps useful as additional educational tools, but only with a quality and serious content.
{"title":"Interpretation of digitalization indicators of the Russian system of general education","authors":"E. Skvortsova","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.2.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.2.9","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes digitalization indicators of the Russian general education system provided by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), as well as data from a secondary analysis of the results of the sociological survey “Teenagers 360°” (within the framework of the strategic program “Teenagers Russia” of the Commissioner for Children’s Rights under the President of the Russian Federation) and other sources. The following indicators are considered as indicators: the indicator of the use of special software tools available to students in educational organizations; the number of students using e-learning and distance learning technologies; the number of students in organizations engaged in educational activities under additional general educational programs for children; the proportion of children attending additional educational classes; the purposes of using the Internet by children. Their dynamics over the past few years is traced. The interpretation of the digitalization impact on education is presented at the quantitative and qualitative levels. There are analyzed the opinions of specialists in the field of social and pedagogical sciences, teachers and physicians directly related to education and childhood on the digitalization impact on health, mental abilities, assimilation of knowledge and acquisition of craft and work skills. It is concluded that the excessive introduction of digital technologies in all sectors of domestic general education, including additional school education, can interfere with acquisition and systematization of basic knowledge and not contribute to upbringing of the younger generation in a traditional and moral way. Digital educational innovations are perhaps useful as additional educational tools, but only with a quality and serious content.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41343685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.2.13
I. Nazarova, Roman Nesterov
Every year the number of registered HIV-infected people is increasing, which by the end of 2021 made 851.8 thousand people. In this connection the organization of work on prevention and treatment of HIV infection is relevant. The survey of 6313 representatives of the key group, i.e. clients of HIV servicing NPOs — Russians (4793 people) and citizens of other countries (1520 people) identified the main risk groups, for which it is necessary to work out the principal activity strategies connected with treatment and prevention. Every tenth client of the Charitable Foundation is HIV-infected and hepatitis C positive, every fourth has had or is having sexually transmitted infection (STI), and 4.6% of men and 1.4% of women have syphilis. The group is characterized by risky behavior in terms of HIV infection, STIs (and other dangerous diseases), including: drug use (17.8% of men — injecting and/or 46.1% of women — non-injecting), prostitution (13.6% of men and 15.4% of women), consume sex services (16.6% of men and 5.0% of women). Based on analytical and mathematical methods, eight basic conditional groups of patients of the Foundation were identified that will allow us to develop work strategies depending on a number of basic socio-demographic characteristics (age, sexual orientation), attainability of clients, morbidity, risk behavior and attitudes regarding morbidity, treatment and prevention. In particular, the most difficult groups of clients to work with at the Foundation have been identified: legal and illegal migrants and men involved in prostitution. What all of these groups have in common is that they depend on their employer and their priority is to keep their jobs, for the sake of which they are willing to sacrifice their health and lead deviant lifestyles.
{"title":"Clients of a HIV-service NPO: structure, typology, behavioral features","authors":"I. Nazarova, Roman Nesterov","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.2.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.2.13","url":null,"abstract":"Every year the number of registered HIV-infected people is increasing, which by the end of 2021 made 851.8 thousand people. In this connection the organization of work on prevention and treatment of HIV infection is relevant. The survey of 6313 representatives of the key group, i.e. clients of HIV servicing NPOs — Russians (4793 people) and citizens of other countries (1520 people) identified the main risk groups, for which it is necessary to work out the principal activity strategies connected with treatment and prevention. Every tenth client of the Charitable Foundation is HIV-infected and hepatitis C positive, every fourth has had or is having sexually transmitted infection (STI), and 4.6% of men and 1.4% of women have syphilis. The group is characterized by risky behavior in terms of HIV infection, STIs (and other dangerous diseases), including: drug use (17.8% of men — injecting and/or 46.1% of women — non-injecting), prostitution (13.6% of men and 15.4% of women), consume sex services (16.6% of men and 5.0% of women). Based on analytical and mathematical methods, eight basic conditional groups of patients of the Foundation were identified that will allow us to develop work strategies depending on a number of basic socio-demographic characteristics (age, sexual orientation), attainability of clients, morbidity, risk behavior and attitudes regarding morbidity, treatment and prevention. In particular, the most difficult groups of clients to work with at the Foundation have been identified: legal and illegal migrants and men involved in prostitution. What all of these groups have in common is that they depend on their employer and their priority is to keep their jobs, for the sake of which they are willing to sacrifice their health and lead deviant lifestyles.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49396912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.2.2
S. Sivoplyasova
The pandemic of a new coronavirus infection has had a significant impact on demographic processes in Russia, in particular, on the dynamics of marriage and divorce. In 2020 the indicators reached the lowest values since the beginning of the 21st century. Meanwhile, quarantines and “lockdowns” affected marriage more strongly than divorce. Analysis of monthly crude marriage and divorce rates showed that after the “acute phases” of restrictions, when there was a sharp decline in indicators, in the periods of reduction of the quarantine measures, a “compensatory effect” was observed: both the number of registered marriages and divorces increased. However, in the case of divorces, the “compensatory” effect appeared immediately after the lifting of restrictions and persisted throughout the pandemic. In the case of marriages, “restraint” in matrimonial behaviour was observed for almost a year, and the “effect of delayed marriages” manifested itself only in 2021. At the same time, the different rate of dynamics of marriage and divorce led to the fact that the ratio of marriages and divorces in the country exceeded a record 100:70, respectively. There is a regional differentiation in marriage and divorce rates. The study showed that the matrimonial behaviour of the population in different subjects became more similar during the acute phase of the pandemic (in 2020), and differences increased in marriage rates during the period with milder restrictions (in 2021), while they decreased even more in divorce rates. There were RF subjects in which the number of divorces not only equalled the number of marriages (for example, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug in 2020), but also exceeded it during the pandemic period (in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic and the Republic of Ingushetia in 2021). This situation causes particular concern, as it affects the marriage structure of population and, as a result, may affect the dynamics of reproduction. Thus, unfavourable external factors can have a strong impact on marriage and divorce, thereby creating risks for the demographic development of the country. Conversely, a stable socio-economic, political and epidemiological situation will allow demographic processes to develop in a positive way and become the basis for achieving the goals of the socio-demographic policy of the State.
{"title":"Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marriage and divorce in Russia","authors":"S. Sivoplyasova","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.2.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.2.2","url":null,"abstract":"The pandemic of a new coronavirus infection has had a significant impact on demographic processes in Russia, in particular, on the dynamics of marriage and divorce. In 2020 the indicators reached the lowest values since the beginning of the 21st century. Meanwhile, quarantines and “lockdowns” affected marriage more strongly than divorce. Analysis of monthly crude marriage and divorce rates showed that after the “acute phases” of restrictions, when there was a sharp decline in indicators, in the periods of reduction of the quarantine measures, a “compensatory effect” was observed: both the number of registered marriages and divorces increased. However, in the case of divorces, the “compensatory” effect appeared immediately after the lifting of restrictions and persisted throughout the pandemic. In the case of marriages, “restraint” in matrimonial behaviour was observed for almost a year, and the “effect of delayed marriages” manifested itself only in 2021. At the same time, the different rate of dynamics of marriage and divorce led to the fact that the ratio of marriages and divorces in the country exceeded a record 100:70, respectively. There is a regional differentiation in marriage and divorce rates. The study showed that the matrimonial behaviour of the population in different subjects became more similar during the acute phase of the pandemic (in 2020), and differences increased in marriage rates during the period with milder restrictions (in 2021), while they decreased even more in divorce rates. There were RF subjects in which the number of divorces not only equalled the number of marriages (for example, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug in 2020), but also exceeded it during the pandemic period (in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic and the Republic of Ingushetia in 2021). This situation causes particular concern, as it affects the marriage structure of population and, as a result, may affect the dynamics of reproduction. Thus, unfavourable external factors can have a strong impact on marriage and divorce, thereby creating risks for the demographic development of the country. Conversely, a stable socio-economic, political and epidemiological situation will allow demographic processes to develop in a positive way and become the basis for achieving the goals of the socio-demographic policy of the State.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49463961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.13
O. Rudneva, A. Sokolov
Assessment of the readiness of regions for the occurrence of critical situations is atopical area of research in modern conditions. The problem of high mortality in Russia determines the importance of studying the factors that shape the current state of the socio-demographic system of the population and the prerequisites for its change in the future or in the present under the influence of negative processes. To form an objective picture of the current situation, two areas are identified: potential (the state of the region's healthcare system) and demographic stability (risks of population decline), on the basis of which complex integral indices are calculated and regions are ranked. The specificity of the author's approach to the analysis consists in the complex use of demographic indicators, morbidity indicators and the functioning of the healthcare system. As a result of the analysis, it was found out that an ambiguous situation has developed in the regions. According to the assessment of demographic sustainability, the republics of the North Caucasus have become the best, but there is also the lowest level of development of the healthcare system. The opposite situation is observed in remote and sparsely populated regions of the Far East — Sakhalin Oblast, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug — with high indicators of the potential of the healthcare system there are high demographic risks. The depth of the consequences of the pandemic was reflected in the form of excess mortality. In the first year, the regions of the North Caucasus became leaders in terms of mortality growth — Chechnya (by 44%), Dagestan (by 32%) and Ingushetia (by 27%).The most stable were Adygea, Sevastopol and Buryatia — excess mortality did not exceed 6%. In the second year, actively increasing mortality has already affected all regions, with the exception of the Republic of Tyva and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug having the lowest proportion of the population over working age. The proposed concept of a two-way study of regions will make it possible to trace the main problem areas in dynamics and give an opportunity to prevent the consequences of other possible force majeure.
{"title":"Analysis of the readiness of Russian regions for the COVID-19 pandemic based on demographic sustainability and development of the healthcare system","authors":"O. Rudneva, A. Sokolov","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.1.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.13","url":null,"abstract":"Assessment of the readiness of regions for the occurrence of critical situations is atopical area of research in modern conditions. The problem of high mortality in Russia determines the importance of studying the factors that shape the current state of the socio-demographic system of the population and the prerequisites for its change in the future or in the present under the influence of negative processes. To form an objective picture of the current situation, two areas are identified: potential (the state of the region's healthcare system) and demographic stability (risks of population decline), on the basis of which complex integral indices are calculated and regions are ranked. The specificity of the author's approach to the analysis consists in the complex use of demographic indicators, morbidity indicators and the functioning of the healthcare system. As a result of the analysis, it was found out that an ambiguous situation has developed in the regions. According to the assessment of demographic sustainability, the republics of the North Caucasus have become the best, but there is also the lowest level of development of the healthcare system. The opposite situation is observed in remote and sparsely populated regions of the Far East — Sakhalin Oblast, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug — with high indicators of the potential of the healthcare system there are high demographic risks. The depth of the consequences of the pandemic was reflected in the form of excess mortality. In the first year, the regions of the North Caucasus became leaders in terms of mortality growth — Chechnya (by 44%), Dagestan (by 32%) and Ingushetia (by 27%).The most stable were Adygea, Sevastopol and Buryatia — excess mortality did not exceed 6%. In the second year, actively increasing mortality has already affected all regions, with the exception of the Republic of Tyva and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug having the lowest proportion of the population over working age. The proposed concept of a two-way study of regions will make it possible to trace the main problem areas in dynamics and give an opportunity to prevent the consequences of other possible force majeure.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48463708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.16
O. Aleksandrova, A. Yarasheva
-
-
{"title":"International research and practical conference “Incomes, expenditures and savings of the Russian population: trends and prospects”","authors":"O. Aleksandrova, A. Yarasheva","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.1.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.16","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>-</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46119071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.14
V. Loginov
The article discusses the features of the reproduction of the population in the Arctic region in the post-Soviet period and in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective analysis of the population dynamics is carried out and the factors of the population change in the post-Soviet period are identified. There is noted a significant impact of the economic development and social well-being level of the territory on the change in demographic indicators that determine the positive vector and scales of both natural and, in some years, mechanical population growth. The factors affecting the spread of COVID-19 in the Arctic subject of the Russian Federation — Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and the level of mortality and morbidity from coronavirus, their impact on the population reproduction over two years of the pandemic has been identified, based on the characteristics of the socio-economic and demographic development, the geographical location of the region and its municipalities. The role of the coronavirus pandemic as the main source of excess mortality in 2020-2021, and the dependence of the morbidity and mortality of the population on the age structure, the characteristics of the spread of coronavirus infection, the impact of the population level and geographic location are examined. There are identified intra-regional differences and local areas having their own specifics, both in socio-economic and demographic terms, and features of the pandemic spread. The hypothesis about the role of older ages of 60+ as the main risk group in determining the rate of spread and the number of deaths due to the coronavirus has been empirically confirmed. Analysis of the statistical data on the dynamics of morbidity and mortality in the period under review made it possible to identify the cyclicity of the waves of the first and second indicators in time from the lowest level to the peak, the duration of which was eight months.
{"title":"Demographic features of the COVID-19 spreading in the Arctic region","authors":"V. Loginov","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.1.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.14","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the features of the reproduction of the population in the Arctic region in the post-Soviet period and in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective analysis of the population dynamics is carried out and the factors of the population change in the post-Soviet period are identified. There is noted a significant impact of the economic development and social well-being level of the territory on the change in demographic indicators that determine the positive vector and scales of both natural and, in some years, mechanical population growth. The factors affecting the spread of COVID-19 in the Arctic subject of the Russian Federation — Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and the level of mortality and morbidity from coronavirus, their impact on the population reproduction over two years of the pandemic has been identified, based on the characteristics of the socio-economic and demographic development, the geographical location of the region and its municipalities. The role of the coronavirus pandemic as the main source of excess mortality in 2020-2021, and the dependence of the morbidity and mortality of the population on the age structure, the characteristics of the spread of coronavirus infection, the impact of the population level and geographic location are examined. There are identified intra-regional differences and local areas having their own specifics, both in socio-economic and demographic terms, and features of the pandemic spread. The hypothesis about the role of older ages of 60+ as the main risk group in determining the rate of spread and the number of deaths due to the coronavirus has been empirically confirmed. Analysis of the statistical data on the dynamics of morbidity and mortality in the period under review made it possible to identify the cyclicity of the waves of the first and second indicators in time from the lowest level to the peak, the duration of which was eight months.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47732642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.5
I. Filimonova, A. Ivershin, A. Komarova, O.I. Krivosheeva
Birth rate has a special place among the demographic factors determining the growth of population and the pace of the country's economic development. Solution to the problem of proper fertility in Russia is in building a powerful state demographic policy based on strengthening the key determinants of the reproductive process. The work is devoted to identifying the determinants of making a decision about the birth of a child in Russian families, understanding of which will allow substantiating the ways to improve the effectiveness of the demographic policy to stimulate the birth rate. To study fertility factors, two econometric models were built: a logistic regression for dependent variable of having a child during the year and an ordinal logistic regression for the number of children. The models took into account the problem of endogeneity — there was used instrumental variables method. The main data source was the RLMS HSE statistical database. The primary analysis of the data showed that in Russia the transition to European family type continues: there is an increase in the age at which women have children, and extramarital unions are spreading. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found out that the probability of having a child during the year is influenced primarily by personal and socio-economic factors, as well as working conditions. The number of children a woman has is affected by all types of factors, in particular— socio-economic factors and working conditions. Families that are not sure of their future financial stability, including their living conditions, are less likely to have a large number of children. The paper gives recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of the state demographic policy in Russia.
{"title":"Factors affecting the decision about having a child and the number of children by women in Russia","authors":"I. Filimonova, A. Ivershin, A. Komarova, O.I. Krivosheeva","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.1.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.5","url":null,"abstract":"Birth rate has a special place among the demographic factors determining the growth of population and the pace of the country's economic development. Solution to the problem of proper fertility in Russia is in building a powerful state demographic policy based on strengthening the key determinants of the reproductive process. The work is devoted to identifying the determinants of making a decision about the birth of a child in Russian families, understanding of which will allow substantiating the ways to improve the effectiveness of the demographic policy to stimulate the birth rate. To study fertility factors, two econometric models were built: a logistic regression for dependent variable of having a child during the year and an ordinal logistic regression for the number of children. The models took into account the problem of endogeneity — there was used instrumental variables method. The main data source was the RLMS HSE statistical database. The primary analysis of the data showed that in Russia the transition to European family type continues: there is an increase in the age at which women have children, and extramarital unions are spreading. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found out that the probability of having a child during the year is influenced primarily by personal and socio-economic factors, as well as working conditions. The number of children a woman has is affected by all types of factors, in particular— socio-economic factors and working conditions. Families that are not sure of their future financial stability, including their living conditions, are less likely to have a large number of children. The paper gives recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of the state demographic policy in Russia.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46850200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.3
V. Gnevasheva, Chulpan Ildarkhanova
The architectonics of the authors' research reflects the paradoxes of public consciousness concerning the perception of the phenomenon of social loneliness through the prism of the completeness of family and the presence of children. The prerogative of material prosperity in the name of the prospects for future family well-being in the conditions of the modern labor market in some cases results in social loneliness, when the compensating result of a woman's life cycle is professional solvency in the absence of family and children. Social loneliness begins to lose its negative context in the perception of the individual himself, which is expressed in an increase in the proportion of Russians aged30 to 45years who have never been married. The authors reveal women's reflections on the phenomenon of social loneliness in the context of existing family constructs, as well as aspects of the stigmatization of single mothers and children growing up without a father. Objectively and from the standpoint of the interests of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation, postponing important demographic events to later ages increases the risks of social loneliness, expressed in lower chances of starting a family and having children. Subjectively, the segment of people who, according to various indicators can be considered lonely, is an established demographic and social reality and does not feel lonely. The study is aimed at clarifying the peculiarities of women's perception of social loneliness, their identification of their role in society, the significance of their main social positions for them, their wish to be involved in one or another social group. The results of the study are presented on the basis of a sociological survey conducted in the all-Russian format. The sample is characterized as continuous, random, at the last stage nested (one cluster of the sample is selected — women, N=1075). The initial processing of the empirical data provided an opportunity to draw a number of conclusions regarding the value orientations of women and their formation of social behavior in the context of building a professional, family and marital life trajectory. The research focus of presenting the results is on finding ways to minimize social loneliness in public perceptions.
{"title":"Do modern Russian women consider themselves lonely?","authors":"V. Gnevasheva, Chulpan Ildarkhanova","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"The architectonics of the authors' research reflects the paradoxes of public consciousness concerning the perception of the phenomenon of social loneliness through the prism of the completeness of family and the presence of children. The prerogative of material prosperity in the name of the prospects for future family well-being in the conditions of the modern labor market in some cases results in social loneliness, when the compensating result of a woman's life cycle is professional solvency in the absence of family and children. Social loneliness begins to lose its negative context in the perception of the individual himself, which is expressed in an increase in the proportion of Russians aged30 to 45years who have never been married. The authors reveal women's reflections on the phenomenon of social loneliness in the context of existing family constructs, as well as aspects of the stigmatization of single mothers and children growing up without a father. Objectively and from the standpoint of the interests of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation, postponing important demographic events to later ages increases the risks of social loneliness, expressed in lower chances of starting a family and having children. Subjectively, the segment of people who, according to various indicators can be considered lonely, is an established demographic and social reality and does not feel lonely. The study is aimed at clarifying the peculiarities of women's perception of social loneliness, their identification of their role in society, the significance of their main social positions for them, their wish to be involved in one or another social group. The results of the study are presented on the basis of a sociological survey conducted in the all-Russian format. The sample is characterized as continuous, random, at the last stage nested (one cluster of the sample is selected — women, N=1075). The initial processing of the empirical data provided an opportunity to draw a number of conclusions regarding the value orientations of women and their formation of social behavior in the context of building a professional, family and marital life trajectory. The research focus of presenting the results is on finding ways to minimize social loneliness in public perceptions.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44397820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-27DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.1.2
Y. Simagin, D. Murtuzalieva, Irina Vankina
The demographic problem is one of the most acute in modern Russia, especially at the level of municipalities, most of which have experienced depopulation since 2010, when the country's population as a whole was increasing. Numerous actions are being taken to solve the demographic problem, and further expansion of their list is quite justified, since in the future the situation may become even worse. At the same time, the issue of the impact on the demographic situation of the municipal-territorial transformations carried out in the regions of the country, which are mainly aimed at abolishing or reducing the number of second-level municipalities — urban and rural settlements, has not been investigated. Meanwhile, public service institutions in the fields of education, healthcare and others may disappear, that negatively affects the living conditions of the population and does not contribute to solving demographic problems. Other consequences of municipal-territorial transformations also have not been studied. This article shows that the municipalities of the first level (urban districts, municipal areas, municipal districts), which in the period 2010-2020 were covered by transformations, are characterized by poorer demographic dynamics (less increase or more decrease in population) compared to other municipalities in the same subjects of the Russian Federation, which were not covered by such transformations. Municipalities with and without transformations also differ in terms of natural and migration movement of the population. It can be concluded that municipal-territorial transformations aimed at simplifying the municipal structure in the country may solve some momentary difficulties, in particular, reduce budget expenditures. But in the future, they may have negative consequences for solving Russia's main problems, including preserving and increasing the country's population.
{"title":"The impact of municipal-territorial transformations in the regions of Russia on population dynamics","authors":"Y. Simagin, D. Murtuzalieva, Irina Vankina","doi":"10.19181/population.2023.26.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"The demographic problem is one of the most acute in modern Russia, especially at the level of municipalities, most of which have experienced depopulation since 2010, when the country's population as a whole was increasing. Numerous actions are being taken to solve the demographic problem, and further expansion of their list is quite justified, since in the future the situation may become even worse. At the same time, the issue of the impact on the demographic situation of the municipal-territorial transformations carried out in the regions of the country, which are mainly aimed at abolishing or reducing the number of second-level municipalities — urban and rural settlements, has not been investigated. Meanwhile, public service institutions in the fields of education, healthcare and others may disappear, that negatively affects the living conditions of the population and does not contribute to solving demographic problems. Other consequences of municipal-territorial transformations also have not been studied. This article shows that the municipalities of the first level (urban districts, municipal areas, municipal districts), which in the period 2010-2020 were covered by transformations, are characterized by poorer demographic dynamics (less increase or more decrease in population) compared to other municipalities in the same subjects of the Russian Federation, which were not covered by such transformations. Municipalities with and without transformations also differ in terms of natural and migration movement of the population. It can be concluded that municipal-territorial transformations aimed at simplifying the municipal structure in the country may solve some momentary difficulties, in particular, reduce budget expenditures. But in the future, they may have negative consequences for solving Russia's main problems, including preserving and increasing the country's population.","PeriodicalId":47095,"journal":{"name":"Population","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42118802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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