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The politics of climate denialism and the secondary denialism of economics 政治上的气候否认和经济上的二次否认
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12606
Clifford William Cobb

Primary climate-change denialism rejects the idea that global warming is driven by human activity. This belief system now appeals to about one-third of Americans. Having been influenced by a 1990s Exxon campaign to sow doubt that fossil fuels are responsible for global warming, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be primary climate-change deniers. But polls show that many US climate-change accepters do not take it seriously enough to pay a nominal sum to prevent continued warming. This secondary denialism (accept the science, deny the urgency of action) may stem from the economic analysis of climate change. Discounting future damage and believing that economic growth will compensate for damage are two standard features of economic theory that justify treating climate issues with a degree of apathy—or at least as low priority. The work of Nobel-Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus provides almost as much cause for indifference among accepters as the climate denialists offer their followers. Scientists may view climate change with alarm, but policy-makers mostly take their cues from economists. Nordhaus stated in a popular book in 2008 that his model demonstrates that 3.45°C warming is economically optimal. Not just tolerable, but optimal. His work is highly influential. Even though some economists have objected to the methods of economic analysis that understate the perils of climate change, their voices have had little influence on policy. Thus, seeming partisan differences about climate change have converged around go-slow polices that manage climate issues as technical problems and that do not impose significant demands upon citizens or disrupt present economic arrangements.

初级气候变化否认主义反对全球变暖是由人类活动驱动的观点。这种信仰体系现在吸引了大约三分之一的美国人。受上世纪90年代埃克森公司(Exxon)宣传化石燃料是全球变暖的罪魁祸首的影响,共和党人比民主党人更有可能成为主要的气候变化否认者。但民意调查显示,许多接受气候变化的美国人并没有认真对待这个问题,没有支付象征性的资金来防止持续变暖。这种二次否定主义(接受科学,否认行动的紧迫性)可能源于对气候变化的经济分析。低估未来的损害和相信经济增长将弥补损害是经济理论的两个标准特征,它们证明了以某种程度的冷漠对待气候问题是合理的——或者至少是低优先级。诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家威廉•诺德豪斯(William Nordhaus)的研究为气候变化否认者提供的理由,几乎与气候变化否认者提供给追随者的理由一样多。科学家可能会警惕气候变化,但政策制定者大多从经济学家那里获得线索。诺德豪斯在2008年的一本畅销书中指出,他的模型表明,3.45°C的变暖在经济上是最优的。不仅可以忍受,而且是最佳的。他的作品很有影响力。尽管一些经济学家反对低估气候变化危险的经济分析方法,但他们的声音对政策几乎没有影响。因此,在气候变化问题上,表面上的党派分歧已经集中在缓慢的政策上,这些政策将气候问题作为技术问题来管理,不会对公民提出重大要求,也不会扰乱当前的经济安排。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change and economic growth: Evidence for European countries 气候变化与经济增长:欧洲国家的证据
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12605
Alfred Greiner, Bettina Bökemeier, Benjamin Owusu

Climate change may affect economies and the welfare of people around the world. To design appropriate policy responses, the economic effects of climate change should be known. One strand in the literature empirically estimates the growth effects of climatic variations. However, those studies often neglect economic variables that have proven to be robust in explaining economic growth. Further, often they fail to check for the robustness of their results. The main aim of this study is to detect whether there exists a statistically significant robust relation between climate change and economic growth by estimating different model specifications. To do so panel estimation techniques for 24 European economies for the period from 2002 to 2019 are applied whereby panel fixed effects estimations and dynamic Generalized Methods of Moments estimations are resorted to. No statistically significant robust relationship between the temperature change and economic growth is found just as for precipitation that does not exert a significant effect on growth. As regards the institutional and macroeconomic control variables the rule of law, the fiscal variable, and the output gap are statistically significant and robust. It is argued that far-reaching policy measures, such as the net zero goal of the European Union, should be given only based on robust results. Otherwise, economic policy may turn out to be inadequate and can lead to welfare losses. Hence, the conclusion is that the net zero goal of the European Green Deal is to be seen skeptical.

气候变化可能影响世界各地的经济和人民的福利。为了设计适当的政策反应,应该了解气候变化的经济影响。文献中的一条线索是经验性地估计气候变化对生长的影响。然而,这些研究往往忽略了在解释经济增长方面被证明是强有力的经济变量。此外,他们常常不能检查结果的稳健性。本研究的主要目的是通过估计不同的模型规格来检测气候变化与经济增长之间是否存在统计上显著的稳健关系。为此,对2002年至2019年期间24个欧洲经济体的面板估计技术进行了应用,其中使用了面板固定效应估计和动态广义矩量方法估计。气温变化与经济增长之间没有统计学上显著的牢固关系,正如降水对经济增长没有显著影响一样。在制度和宏观调控变量方面,法治、财政变量和产出缺口在统计上显著且稳健。有人认为,影响深远的政策措施,如欧盟的净零目标,只应基于强劲的结果来制定。否则,经济政策可能会被证明是不充分的,并可能导致福利损失。因此,结论是,欧洲绿色协议的净零目标是值得怀疑的。
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引用次数: 0
Income inequality and financial overconfidence 收入不平等和金融过度自信
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12603
Aron Gottesman, Matthew Morey

In this paper, we examine the relationship between income inequality and overconfidence. Using data from the FINRA Foundation's National Financial Capability Study, we measure respondents' self-perceived and actual investment knowledge and thus identify overconfident individuals. We also identify for each respondent their U.S. state of residence and the corresponding state-level income inequality. We then examine the relationship between state-level income inequality and overconfidence of the survey participants. Using a number of controls, several overconfidence measures, and two different datasets we find a positive and significant relationship between income inequality and overconfidence. We also find evidence that income inequality is positively related to financial satisfaction and financial risk taking. Indeed, we find that as inequality increases, poorer individuals increase their risk willingness.

本文研究了收入不平等与过度自信之间的关系。使用FINRA基金会的国家金融能力研究数据,我们测量了受访者的自我感知和实际投资知识,从而识别过度自信的个人。我们还为每个受访者确定了他们在美国居住的州和相应的州收入不平等。然后,我们研究了州一级收入不平等与调查参与者过度自信之间的关系。使用一些控制,几个过度自信的措施,和两个不同的数据集,我们发现收入不平等和过度自信之间的积极和显著的关系。我们还发现收入不平等与财务满意度和财务风险承担呈正相关的证据。事实上,我们发现,随着不平等的加剧,较贫穷的个体的风险意愿也会增加。
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引用次数: 0
Where does it matter? Revisiting the role of proximity in knowledge spillovers 这有什么关系?重新审视邻近性在知识溢出中的作用
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12604
Zaizhou Hu, Zengdong Cao, Anran Du, Qin Tu

This paper seeks to reconcile the divergent views on the role of proximity in knowledge spillovers through a comparative analysis of proximity's various dimensions and an examination of conditions under which proximity is effective. Our findings indicate that cognitive and social proximity not only mitigate the hindrance of geographical distance on knowledge diffusion but also play a dominant role in facilitating knowledge flows over long distances. Consequently, non-geographical proximity has a more profound impact on knowledge spillovers, although the effect of geographical proximity remains significant and should not be overlooked. Through mechanistic analysis, we find that geographical proximity is effective in facilitating the diffusion of tacit knowledge, learning by firms with poorer knowledge stock, and searching for unfixed knowledge sources. The impact of geographical proximity on knowledge spillovers depends on a range of conditions, and appreciating this complexity is vital for an accurate comprehension of its role. In contrast, non-geographical proximity exhibits greater robustness, as it faces fewer limiting conditions and possesses stronger explanatory power.

本文试图通过对接近性各维度的比较分析和对接近性有效条件的考察,来调和关于接近性在知识溢出中的作用的不同观点。研究结果表明,认知接近和社会接近不仅减轻了地理距离对知识传播的阻碍,而且在促进长距离知识流动方面起着主导作用。因此,非地理邻近性对知识溢出的影响更为深远,尽管地理邻近性的影响仍然显著且不可忽视。通过机制分析,我们发现地理邻近性对隐性知识的扩散、知识存量较差的企业的学习和寻找不固定的知识来源具有促进作用。地理邻近对知识溢出的影响取决于一系列条件,认识到这种复杂性对于准确理解其作用至关重要。相比之下,非地理邻近性表现出更强的稳健性,因为它面临的限制条件较少,具有更强的解释力。
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引用次数: 0
Does economic freedom push people into suicide? New evidence from developing and developed societies, 1980–2019 经济自由促使人们自杀吗?来自发展中社会和发达社会的新证据,1980-2019年
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12602
Minea Rutar, Tibor Rutar

This research paper investigates the impact of market liberalization on country-level suicide rates using a sample of 96 developing and developed countries from 1980 to 2019. We estimate fixed-effects panel regression models with robust standard errors clustered at the country level and conduct a variety of robustness checks, including using different estimators and disaggregating the data. We consistently find that the aggregate Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) measure is not statistically significantly related to within-country variations in age-standardized suicide rates, but some individual components are. Freedom to trade internationally weakly predicts increases in suicide rates, while sound money is associated with decreased suicide rates. The former result is highly vulnerable to different specifications. This study underscores the existence of a complex, non-intuitive relationship between market liberalization and suicide rates, suggesting that both critics and defenders of liberalization might be mistaken in making any unequivocal judgments about the process.

本研究论文以 1980 年至 2019 年的 96 个发展中国家和发达国家为样本,研究了市场自由化对国家层面自杀率的影响。我们利用在国家层面聚类的稳健标准误差估计了固定效应面板回归模型,并进行了各种稳健性检验,包括使用不同的估计器和对数据进行分类。我们一致发现,世界经济自由度(EFW)的总体衡量标准与各国国内年龄标准化自杀率的变化在统计上没有显著关系,但一些单独的组成部分却有显著关系。国际贸易自由度对自杀率上升的预测作用较弱,而稳健货币则与自杀率下降有关。前者的结果极易受到不同规格的影响。这项研究强调了市场自由化与自杀率之间存在着复杂的、非直观的关系,表明自由化的批评者和捍卫者在对自由化进程做出任何明确判断时都可能是错误的。
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引用次数: 0
Policy uncertainty and non-performing loans in Greece 希腊的政策不确定性和不良贷款
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12601
Stephanos Papadamou, Konstantinos Pitsilkas

Based on the growing interest in understanding the impact of uncertainty on various aspects of the economy, this study investigates the long-run relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU), its components, unemployment, capital adequacy, liquidity risk, and non-performing loans (NPLs) in Greece. Our findings indicate several key results: (1) There exists a negative, long-term co-integrating relationship between EPU and its components with financial stability. (2) Unemployment and capital adequacy also exert long-term negative effects on financial stability. (3) These results hold robustly even after decomposing the total NPL ratio into mortgage, consumer, and business NPLs. (4) Consumer NPLs exhibit the slowest adjustment to long-run equilibrium among the NPL sub-categories, with mortgages presenting the fastest rate of adjustment. The findings underscore important policy implications: initiatives aimed at reducing fiscal and banking policy uncertainties and fostering a stable environment for businesses and households could effectively manage NPLs more efficiently, as uncertainty influences NPLs not only in the short run but also in the long run.

基于对了解不确定性对经济各方面影响的日益增长的兴趣,本研究调查了希腊经济政策不确定性(EPU)及其组成部分、失业率、资本充足率、流动性风险和不良贷款(NPLs)之间的长期关系。结果表明:(1)EPU及其构成要素与金融稳定存在负相关的长期协整关系。(2)失业和资本充足率对金融稳定也有长期的负面影响。(3)即使在将总不良贷款率分解为抵押贷款,消费者和商业不良贷款率之后,这些结果仍然有效。(4)在不良贷款子类别中,消费者不良贷款向长期均衡的调整速度最慢,抵押贷款的调整速度最快。研究结果强调了重要的政策含义:旨在减少财政和银行政策不确定性以及为企业和家庭营造稳定环境的举措可以更有效地管理不良贷款,因为不确定性不仅在短期内影响不良贷款,而且在长期内也会影响不良贷款。
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引用次数: 0
Political democracy, economy, and cancer risk: A comparative analysis of 170 countries 政治民主、经济与癌症风险:170 个国家的比较分析
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12600
Andrew C. Patterson

Much literature acknowledges the importance of political systems for population health. People living in democratic countries tend to have higher life expectancies and lower rates of infant mortality compared to those in other countries. However, few quantitative comparative studies explore the political origins of chronic disease. To address this gap, this study examines the impact of political democracy on cancer risk. Using data from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN), regression models test differences in age-adjusted cancer rates across 170 countries. Counter to study hypotheses, overall incidence of cancer is not any lower in democratic countries. This is evident even when removing the confounding influence of economic and several other factors. However, among children and adolescents, cancer mortality rates and leukemia incidence are exceptions since these are lower in democratic countries in some models. Results otherwise do not support the view that political regime type alone prevents cancer. Overall findings appear robust to threats of endogeneity, higher average age in developed countries, comparative differences in the ability to diagnose cases, and several other threats. The broader literature indicates that democratic countries have better health overall. However, findings are that democratic countries have higher cancer incidence on average, which is likely due to having higher levels of economic prosperity compared to more autocratic countries. Economic policy is likely to be an important consideration for preventing cancer. Longitudinal analysis was not possible for these data, which is reason for caution when interpreting these findings.

许多文献都承认政治制度对人口健康的重要性。与其他国家相比,生活在民主国家的人往往预期寿命较长,婴儿死亡率较低。然而,很少有定量比较研究探讨慢性疾病的政治根源。为了填补这一空白,本研究探讨了政治民主对癌症风险的影响。利用全球癌症观察站(GLOBOCAN)的数据,回归模型检验了 170 个国家年龄调整后癌症发病率的差异。与研究假设相反,民主国家的癌症总发病率并没有降低。即使剔除经济和其他一些因素的干扰影响,这一点也是显而易见的。不过,在儿童和青少年中,癌症死亡率和白血病发病率是个例外,因为在某些模型中,民主国家的癌症死亡率和白血病发病率较低。除此之外,研究结果并不支持仅凭政权类型就能预防癌症的观点。总的来说,研究结果似乎能够抵御内生性、发达国家平均年龄较高、病例诊断能力的比较差异以及其他一些威胁。更广泛的文献表明,民主国家的总体健康状况更好。然而,研究结果表明,民主国家的癌症发病率平均较高,这可能是因为民主国家的经济繁荣程度高于专制国家。经济政策可能是预防癌症的一个重要考虑因素。这些数据无法进行纵向分析,因此在解释这些发现时需要谨慎。
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引用次数: 0
A cross-cultural study on countries' environmental performance: The influence of religion 国家环境绩效的跨文化研究:宗教的影响
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12599
Francesca Di Pillo, Fabrizio Rossi

Although numerous scientific studies have extensively analyzed religion's impact on environmental performance at the firm level, the literature on environmental effects at a country level is relatively poor. This paper aims to fill this gap by studying how the dimensions of national culture, including religion, impact a country's sustainability performance in 96 countries. We apply Geert Hofstede's cross-cultural dimensions and evaluate countries' sustainability performance using the EPI indicator, which provides a comprehensive environmental overview, including indicators such as climate change, environmental health, and ecosystem vitality. Additionally, to provide a more comprehensive framework for the sustainability performance of countries, we conducted a comparative analysis using the SDG index scores encompassing 1056 country-year observations. Our findings suggest that the impact on a country's environmental performance varies according to the cultural dimension, mainly, the Christian religion positively influences national sustainability performance.

虽然许多科学研究广泛地分析了宗教在公司层面对环境绩效的影响,但关于国家层面环境影响的文献相对较少。本文旨在通过研究包括宗教在内的民族文化维度如何影响96个国家的可持续发展绩效来填补这一空白。我们采用Geert Hofstede的跨文化维度,并使用EPI指标评估各国的可持续性绩效,该指标提供了全面的环境概况,包括气候变化、环境健康和生态系统活力等指标。此外,为了为各国的可持续发展绩效提供一个更全面的框架,我们利用可持续发展目标指数得分进行了比较分析,其中包括1056个国家/年的观察结果。研究结果表明,文化维度对国家环境绩效的影响不同,主要是基督教对国家可持续发展绩效的积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Tax revenue instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter? 撒哈拉以南非洲税收不稳定:机构质量重要吗?
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12598
Roukiatou Nikiema, Mahamoudou Zore

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) nations face a dual fiscal challenge: the need to increase tax revenue mobilization and to manage revenue instability. This paper examines the causal impact of institutional quality on tax revenue stability in SSA from 2000 to 2020. Using UNU-WIDER data and the System GMM technique, the study finds that institutional quality reduces tax revenue instability, with a stronger effect on indirect tax revenues than on direct taxes. This result is robust to changes in the measure of tax revenue instability, the measure of quality of institutions, the sample, and the time horizon. The effect is particularly pronounced in resource-rich countries and in countries experiencing economic growth. The article's results are relevant to tax policy, specifically the necessary adjustments to improve tax revenue stability through institutional quality.

撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家面临着双重财政挑战:既要提高税收动员能力,又要控制税收的不稳定性。本文研究了 2000 年至 2020 年制度质量对撒哈拉以南非洲税收稳定性的因果影响。利用联合国大学世界发展经济学研究所的数据和系统 GMM 技术,研究发现,制度质量降低了税收的不稳定性,对间接税收入的影响强于对直接税的影响。这一结果对税收不稳定性的衡量、机构质量的衡量、样本和时间跨度的变化都是稳健的。这种效应在资源丰富的国家和经济增长国家尤为明显。文章的结果与税收政策相关,特别是通过机构质量提高税收稳定性的必要调整。
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引用次数: 0
Family strategies: Labor migration, multigenerational households, and children's schooling in Nepal 家庭战略:尼泊尔的劳动力迁移、多代同堂家庭和儿童入学问题
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12597
Mark Schafer, Krishna P. Paudel, Kamal Upadhyaya

Temporary migration to international destinations has many implications for the family members left behind. This paper discusses family economic theoretical perspectives and the family strategies that are adopted in Chitwan, Nepal. The family strategies include single united, split-single generation, multigenerational, and split-multigenerational households that are linked to the presence or absence of fathers and grandfathers. We examined how family strategies impact school outcomes, that is, school investment and school progress. We obtained three critical findings about family migration and structure strategies and school investment. First, multigenerational family strategies mitigated the negative association between siblings on educational investments. Second, split-household strategies mitigated the negative associations between age and private school and between remittance dependency and top school fees. Third, family strategies shaped how ethnicity and caste influence educational investments as split-household, multigenerational (and both) mitigated negative connection between the least powerful castes and ethnicities and school investment. Our findings did not show significant associations between family strategies and children's educational progress in Chitwan. Families in rural Nepal are responding to macrostructural changes, and there is a need for more research to better understand shifting family migration and household structure strategies, in all their complexities, and their implications for children in rural Nepal or other rural locations with a high temporary migration rate.

向国际目的地的临时移民对留守家庭成员有许多影响。本文讨论了尼泊尔奇特旺的家庭经济理论观点和所采取的家庭策略。这些家庭策略包括单亲家庭、分离式单代家庭、多代家庭和分离式多代家庭,这些家庭策略与父亲和祖父的存在与否有关。我们研究了家庭策略如何影响学校成果,即学校投资和学校进步。关于家庭迁移和结构策略与学校投资,我们得出了三个重要发现。首先,多代同堂的家庭策略减轻了兄弟姐妹之间对教育投资的负面影响。第二,分户策略减轻了年龄与私立学校之间以及汇款依赖与最高学费之间的负相关。第三,家庭策略影响了种族和种姓对教育投资的影响,因为分户、多代(以及两者)减轻了最弱势种姓和种族与学校投资之间的负相关。我们的研究结果表明,在奇特旺,家庭策略与儿童教育进步之间并无明显关联。尼泊尔农村地区的家庭正在对宏观结构的变化做出反应,因此有必要开展更多的研究,以更好地了解家庭迁移和家庭结构策略的变化及其复杂性,以及它们对尼泊尔农村地区或其他临时迁移率较高的农村地区儿童的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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