American Journal of Economics and Sociology最新文献

Understanding risk taking is an important part of the economic analysis of human behavior. When engaging in risky behaviors, individuals rely on heuristics and external information. It is an open question as to whether external information about fluctuating risk reduces bad outcomes for risk takers. We examine this question using data from avalanche incidents in wintertime backcountry recreation. The number of people traveling in avalanche terrain in the United States has grown exponentially in the past more than 2 decades, yet major avalanche accidents have remained relatively constant. Using data from reported avalanche incidents in Colorado and Utah, this paper shows that additional avalanche forecasting services reduce dangerous incidents. A policy change in Colorado allows for a difference-in-differences estimation with neighboring forecast centers, which gives causal estimates of forecasting reducing incidents by 42% on higher danger days. This reduction may be partially offset by an increase in incidents on lowest rated danger days.

There is a growing consensus that spatial effects can help to explain electoral outcomes. Additionally, the concept of economic freedom is also correlated with many different economic outcomes. This paper combines these two ideas using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial probit econometric model. Hierarchical models have a long history in the Bayesian literature and allow for the estimation of Level 1 (county) and Level 2 (state) variables. In this study, we use county-level data on county-level votes for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election and control for state-level economic freedom using a newly developed Bayesian hierarchical spatial probit model. The results indicate that state-level economic freedom contributed positively to Donald Trump's vote at the county level.

Entrepreneurship is a vital source of high-quality employment in China and is crucial in advancing Chinese-style modernization. Using panel data from 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2021, this study employs difference-in-differences and double machine learning models to examine the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on entrepreneurship. The research findings are as follows: The BRI implementation significantly enhances entrepreneurship at city and provincial levels, with results remaining robust across various tests. The BRI promotes entrepreneurship through industrial innovation, digital trade development, and economic agglomeration. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the BRI's positive effects on entrepreneurship are more pronounced in small and medium-sized cities and central and western regions. Furthermore, the BRI exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, stimulating entrepreneurship in neighboring cities. The initiative also effectively reduces relative disparities in entrepreneurship across regions, particularly between eastern, central, and western areas, thus promoting coordinated regional development. Additionally, triple-difference results indicate that the BRI's positive effects on urban industrial innovation are mainly concentrated in manufacturing sectors such as energy, equipment, and information technology. This study complements the BRI's effects and provides policy implications for narrowing regional entrepreneurship gaps and promoting high-quality full employment in China.

This study aims to examine the impact of corporate environmental, social responsibility, and corporate governance (ESG) performance on supply chain concentration in the Chinese capital market. It finds that corporate ESG performance reduces supply chain concentration by increasing firms' information transparency and bargaining power. Additionally, digital transformation positively moderates the relationship between ESG performance and supply chain concentration. Further analyses indicate that the dampening effect of corporate ESG performance on supply chain concentration is more pronounced among firms that are non-state-owned and have higher financing costs. These findings offer valuable practical guidance for Chinese listed companies and governments.

Renewable energy technology innovation (RETI) is essential for addressing climate change and ensuring energy security, but the impact of political stability on RETI remains underexplored. Using panel data for 65 countries from 2002 to 2022, this paper systematically examines the direct and indirect effects of political stability on RETI, along with the substitution effect of economic risk on political stability, by integrating economic risk into the analysis. The results show that (1) political stability has a significant contribution to RETI, which still holds after robustness tests and the exclusion of endogeneity. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that political stability influences RETI via three channels: financial stability, industrial stability, and R&D stability. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that political stability contributes more significantly to RETI in countries facing higher economic risks. A lower economic risk also promotes RETI and partially substitutes for political stability. The findings offer key insights for maintaining political stability and advancing RETI.

Climate change imposes severe impacts on society and the economy. Solving this problem may require a major redesign of how available resources on our planet are exploited, and those changes induce resistance. Therefore, the general public and politicians welcome claims that climate change is not as bad as scientists conclude. An article in this issue by May and Crok casting doubt on the conclusions of climate science was submitted to this journal and apparently passed peer review. On that basis, the authors claim authority and a high status for their article in posts on social media. However, there are serious problems with this article. It applies a number of logical fallacies frequently used by climate denialists. Rather than debunking all of these fallacies, the present article uses the one by May and Crok to showcase several of these fallacies. These include examples of rhetorical tricks denialists frequently use to cast doubt on the major findings of climate science such as use of fake experts, cherry picking, creating false expectations, and misrepresentations of available understanding.

This study investigates the impact of rising housing prices on urban innovation capabilities from a comprehensive and systemic perspective, using panel data from 246 Chinese cities from 2004 to 2020. The findings challenge traditional views that emphasize only the negative effects of high housing prices on innovation. Instead, the analysis reveals that rising housing prices can enhance urban innovation through specific mechanisms. These include attracting and concentrating talent and generating spatial spillover effects that benefit neighboring cities. The study employs feasible methodological approaches, including the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to measure urban innovation capability and spatial econometric models to capture spillover effects. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers to promote urban innovation, including stabilizing housing markets, optimizing industrial structures, attracting high-skilled individuals, and establishing inter-city innovation coordination mechanisms. This research contributes a novel theoretical framework for understanding the complex relationship between housing prices and urban innovation, enriching the fields of urban economics and innovation studies.