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Registering a proposed business reduces police stops of innocent people? Reconsidering the effects of strip clubs on sex crimes found in Ciacci & Sviatschi’s study of New York City 注册一个拟议的企业会减少警察拦截无辜的人?重新考虑脱衣舞俱乐部对Ciacci案中性犯罪的影响;斯维亚奇对纽约的研究
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2253350
Brandon del Pozo, Peter Moskos, John K. Donohue, John Hall
ABSTRACTCiacci & Sviatschi’s ‘The Effect of Adult Entertainment Establishments on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City,’ published in The Economic Journal, concluded that opening new adult entertainment businesses reduces sex crimes, with the most compelling finding that ‘[strip clubs, gentleman’s clubs, and escort services] decrease sex crime by 13% per police precinct one week after the opening.’ We contend that the study’s conclusions speak beyond the data, which cannot support these findings because they do not measure the necessary variables. The study uses the date a business is registered with New York State as a proxy for its opening date, but the actual date of opening comes weeks or months later, after requirements such as inspections, licensure, and community board approval. The study then uses police Stop, Question and Frisk Reports as data about subsequent crimes. As reports created to memorialize forcible police stops based on less than probable cause, 94% of these reports document that the police had an unfounded belief in criminal activity, and the person stopped was innocent of any crime. In effect, what the study has done is measure changes in police encounters with innocent people in the week after an entity has filed the paperwork that will eventually allow it to open as a business. The study lacks construct validity, cannot reject the null hypothesis of its most important finding, and its methods fall short of the rigor necessary to permit replication.KEYWORDS: Sex crimesex workstop and friskpolicelaw enforcement Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. The Patrol Services Bureau of the New York City Police Department divides the city into 77 precincts (see p. 2 of Ciacci and Sviatschi (Citation2021)), with a mean population of 110,000 residents (i.e., New York City’s 2021 population of 8.46 million divided by 77). The study asserts that the opening of one adult entertainment establishment has a marginal effect of significantly reducing sex crimes among this mean population within a week.2. In the references to Ciacci and Sviatschi (Citation2021) here, we provide page numbers for the PDF of the paper published in its final form in The Economic Journal.3. https://www.superpages.com/search?search_terms=strip+club&geo_location_terms=New+York%2C+NY4. https://www.superpages.com/search?search_terms=escort&geo_location_terms= New+York+City%2C+NY5. https://www.superpages.com/search?search_terms=Gentlemen%27s+Club&geo_location_terms=New+York%2C+NY6. https://www.yellowpages.com/search?search_terms=strip+club&geo_location_terms=New+York+City%2C+NY7. https://www.yellowpages.com/search?search_terms=Gentlemen%27s+Club&geo_location_terms=New+York%2C+NY8. https://www.yellowpages.com/search?search_terms=Escort+Service&geo_location_terms=New+York+City%2C+NY9. See https://www.eros.com/new_york/new_york/eros.htm for one of many examples of services that operate citywide, outside the realm of t
ciacci和Sviatschi发表在《经济杂志》上的《成人娱乐场所对性犯罪的影响:来自纽约市的证据》得出结论,开设新的成人娱乐企业可以减少性犯罪,其中最令人信服的发现是,“(脱衣舞俱乐部、绅士俱乐部和陪护服务)在开业一周后,每个警察辖区的性犯罪减少了13%。”“我们认为,这项研究的结论超越了数据,数据不能支持这些发现,因为它们没有衡量必要的变量。”该研究使用企业在纽约州注册的日期作为其开业日期的代理,但实际开业日期要晚几周或几个月,需要经过检查、许可和社区委员会批准等要求。然后,该研究使用警察拦截、询问和搜身报告作为后续犯罪的数据。这些报告是为了纪念警察基于不太可能的原因强行拦截,其中94%的报告记录了警察对犯罪活动的毫无根据的信念,被拦截的人是无辜的。实际上,这项研究所做的是衡量一个实体提交最终允许其营业的文件后一周内警察与无辜者接触的变化。该研究缺乏结构效度,不能拒绝其最重要发现的零假设,其方法不够严格,无法允许复制。关键词:性犯罪性工作拦截和搜查警察执法披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。纽约市警察局巡逻服务局将纽约市划分为77个区(参见Ciacci and Sviatschi (Citation2021)第2页),平均人口为11万居民(即纽约市2021年的846万人口除以77)。该研究断言,开设一家成人娱乐场所对在一周内显著减少这一平均人口中的性犯罪具有边际效应。在Ciacci和Sviatschi (Citation2021)的参考文献中,我们提供了发表在the Economic journal上的论文最终版本的PDF页码。https://www.superpages.com/search?search_terms=strip + club&geo_location_terms =新+纽约% 2 c + NY4。https://www.superpages.com/search?search_terms=escort&geo_location_terms=新+纽约+ % 2 c + NY5城市。https://www.superpages.com/search?search_terms=Gentlemen%27s + Club&geo_location_terms =新+纽约% 2 c + NY6。https://www.yellowpages.com/search?search_terms=strip新+纽约+城市+ club&geo_location_terms = % 2 c + NY7。https://www.yellowpages.com/search?search_terms=Gentlemen%27s + Club&geo_location_terms =新+纽约% 2 c + NY8。https://www.yellowpages.com/search?search_terms=Escort新+纽约+城市+ Service&geo_location_terms = % 2 c + NY9。参见https://www.eros.com/new_york/new_york/eros.htm,这是全市范围内运营的许多服务的例子之一,超出了本研究的范围,但对其提出的因果模型有很大影响。警告:色情内容。https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/startabusiness/bar11。https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/startabusiness12。https://www.businessexpress.ny.gov/app/answers/cms/a_id/3737/kw/on%20premises13。https://sla.ny.gov/municipalcommunity-board-30-day-advance-notices-premises-applicants14。为了以一种经济的方式提出这个问题,我们使用了整个拦截问题和搜身报告来进行分析,但我们假设讨论的百分比和趋势与研究中定义的性犯罪子类别密切匹配;据我们所知,没有证据表明它们不存在。在我们的分析中使用的拦截、询问和搜身数据可以在这里找到:https://www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/reports-analysis/stopfrisk.page。Donohue先生、Hall先生和del Pozo博士在研究期间是纽约警察局SQF数据的保管人和分析师。额外的informationFundingDr。del Pozo得到了国家药物滥用研究所的支持[grant K01DA056654]。研究所在进行研究或准备发表研究结果方面没有任何作用。作者简介brandon del Pozo是布朗大学医学和公共卫生助理教授。他在纽约市警察局工作了19年,在佛蒙特州伯灵顿市担任了4年的警察局长。他是刑事司法委员会的当选成员,也是国家司法研究所执法推进数据和科学项目的学术研究员。Peter Moskos,约翰·杰伊刑事司法学院法律、警察科学和刑事司法管理系教授。
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引用次数: 0
1033 Program data for studying Policing and militarization: an open-source database in response to the recommendations of Koslicki (2023) 1033研究警务和军事化的项目数据:响应Koslicki建议的开源数据库(2023)
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2254887
Nathan T. Connealy, Abigail R. Hall, Chivon H. Fitch
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引用次数: 0
In the eye of the powerholder: examining the relationship between uniform and accoutrement combinations and police self-legitimacy 在权力者的眼中:检视制服与装备组合与警察自我正当性的关系
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2246620
E. Sargeant, Rylan Simpson
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引用次数: 0
Police lethal force errors and stress physiology during video and live evaluation simulations 视频和现场评估模拟中的警察致命武力错误和应激生理学
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-06 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2237624
P. M. Di Nota, Juha-Matti Huhta, Evelyn C. Boychuk, J. Andersen
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引用次数: 1
Replicating & reproducing policing research 复制和再现警务研究
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2221075
Khadija M. Monk, Jacek Koziarski
In science, replication and reproduction are critical for understanding the reliability of findings from scholarship that came before. When an independent group of researchers collects new data with the intention to replicate an earlier study and end up drawing similar conclusions, our certainty in knowing or understanding the phenomenon under scientific scrutiny grows; if, on the other hand, a replication fails to draw similar conclusions, what we know or understand about the phenomenon under scientific scrutiny is rightfully called into question (Lamal, 1990; Popper, 2005; Simons, 2014). As such, replication and reproduction in science is not only critical for knowledge creation, but for verifying what we know as well. Despite serving as critical pillars in the creation and verification of scientific knowledge, however, some fields do not engage in replication or reproduction efforts regularly. Psychology, for example, has been experiencing a so-called ‘replication crisis’ for the better part of the last two decades after researchers not only realized that few studies in the field have been replicated or reproduced, but when replications or reproductions were attempted, they were either not possible to conduct or failed to draw conclusions that were similar to their original investigations (Makel et al., 2012; Maxwell et al., 2015). The picture of replication and reproduction in criminology, and indeed the sub-field of policing, are no different. An investigation by McNeeley and Warner (2015), for example, found that between 2006 and 2010, just over 2% of published criminological studies were replications. And in policing, with exception to a small list of police practices that have received considerable empirical attention – such as hot spots policing (e.g., Braga et al., 2019) – policing scholarship has largely not faced the scrutiny of subsequent replication or reproduction efforts either. As such, whether replications or reproductions of existing policing scholarship can yield conclusions similar to their original investigations, let alone whether replications or reproductions of existing policing scholarship are even possible to begin with, remains to be seen. While an Editorial Introduction is not the appropriate venue to unpack the many reasons for why a replication crisis, too, exists in the field of policing, we would like to briefly touch upon one of these reasons: a bias toward publishing scholarship that is new, original, and innovative (Huey & Bennell, 2017). This bias is likely influenced by the fact that policing as an academic field is still ‘new’, so there is still a considerable amount of the profession that has been untapped for empirical investigation. Indeed, Discussion sections published in across policing journals – including this one – often contain a laundry list of related areas in need of future research because there is much more left to explore. Additionally, with the police possessing a broad net of roles and respo
在科学中,复制和再现对于理解先前学术发现的可靠性至关重要。当一个独立的研究小组收集新的数据,意图复制早期的研究,并最终得出类似的结论时,我们在科学审查下了解或理解现象的确定性增加了;另一方面,如果重复实验不能得出类似的结论,那么我们对科学审查下的现象的了解或理解就有理由受到质疑(Lamal, 1990;波普尔,2005;西蒙斯,2014)。因此,科学中的复制和再生产不仅对知识创造至关重要,而且对验证我们所知道的也至关重要。然而,尽管是创造和验证科学知识的关键支柱,但有些领域并不经常进行复制或再生产工作。例如,在过去二十年的大部分时间里,心理学一直在经历所谓的“复制危机”,因为研究人员不仅意识到该领域的研究很少被复制或再现,而且当试图复制或再现时,他们要么无法进行,要么无法得出与原始调查相似的结论(Makel et al., 2012;Maxwell et al., 2015)。犯罪学中复制和再生产的图景,以及警务的子领域,也没有什么不同。例如,McNeeley和Warner(2015)的一项调查发现,在2006年至2010年期间,发表的犯罪学研究中只有2%以上的研究是重复的。在警务方面,除了一小部分受到大量实证关注的警务实践(如热点警务(例如Braga等人,2019))外,警务学术在很大程度上也没有受到后续复制或再生产努力的审查。因此,现有警务研究的复制或复制是否能得出与原始调查相似的结论,更不用说现有警务研究的复制或复制是否有可能开始,还有待观察。虽然社论导言不是解释为什么在警务领域也存在复制危机的许多原因的合适场所,但我们想简要地谈谈其中一个原因:对新颖、原创和创新的出版学术的偏见(Huey & Bennell, 2017)。这种偏见很可能是受以下事实的影响:警务作为一个学术领域仍然是“新”的,因此仍有相当多的职业尚未开发用于实证调查。事实上,在各种警务期刊上发表的讨论部分——包括本刊——经常包含一长串需要未来研究的相关领域,因为还有更多的领域有待探索。此外,由于警察拥有广泛的角色和责任网络,这些角色和责任没有明确定义(参见例如,Langton等人,2022;Lum et al., 2022),警察作为一个机构和警务作为一种实践不断发展和演变,以满足对其服务的需求,同时也出现了新的实证调查机会。需要明确的是:新的、原创的、创新的学术研究拓宽和扩展了我们目前对警务的理解,这是需要的,也应该继续得到鼓励。然而,可以说,警务学者不应该把所有的鸡蛋都放在“原创”和“创新”的篮子里。正如Lowenkamp等人(2003,第353页)所解释的那样,继续这样做可能是有害的:
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引用次数: 1
How police investigators seek to secure that suspects speaking a second language understand their rights in investigative interviews 警方调查人员如何确保说第二语言的嫌疑人在调查采访中了解他们的权利
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2233660
Jan Svennevig, P. Urbanik, Aafke Diepeveen
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引用次数: 0
The impact of critical incidents, work stress, and organizational support on PTSD symptoms among law enforcement officers: a moderated moderation model 重大事件、工作压力和组织支持对执法人员PTSD症状的影响:一个有调节的调节模型
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2231594
E. Fuller, G. Boland, Temilola K. Salami
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引用次数: 0
Did De-policing contribute to the 2020 homicide spikes? 去警务化是否导致了2020年凶杀案的激增?
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2235056
Dae-Young Kim
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引用次数: 3
Parallel lines? The homogeneous and gendered career patterns of senior leaders in policing in England and Wales 平行线?英格兰和威尔士警察高级领导的同质性和性别职业模式
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2231593
J. Alexander, S. Charman
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引用次数: 0
Community policing during the pandemic 大流行期间的社区警务
IF 1.8 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1080/15614263.2023.2222869
Christina Smylie, Linda Duxbury, C. Bennell
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Police Practice and Research
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