We propose using cost shifters as valid instruments for the estimation of short-run price elasticity of demand for residential electricity. We argue that most of the previous studies do not address the endogeneity of price in the demand equation and hence suffer from simultaneity bias. Furthermore, we argue that using lagged prices or consumption as instruments clearly violates the exclusion restriction and overstates the magnitude of the short-run elasticity of demand. We propose using the price of coal and natural gas as instruments, since they are two of the most important inputs in the production of electricity in the U.S. We are able to estimate much smaller magnitudes of price elasticity, which implies that in the short run consumers are much less responsive to changes in prices than previously believed. Policies based on previous (higher) estimates are likely to take longer time to be effective, since these estimates are confounding short-run and long-run consumer responses to price changes.
{"title":"Short Run Price Elasticity of Demand for Energy in the US","authors":"YoungSook Kim, Younoh Kim, Vlad Radoias","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2740716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2740716","url":null,"abstract":"We propose using cost shifters as valid instruments for the estimation of short-run price elasticity of demand for residential electricity. We argue that most of the previous studies do not address the endogeneity of price in the demand equation and hence suffer from simultaneity bias. Furthermore, we argue that using lagged prices or consumption as instruments clearly violates the exclusion restriction and overstates the magnitude of the short-run elasticity of demand. We propose using the price of coal and natural gas as instruments, since they are two of the most important inputs in the production of electricity in the U.S. We are able to estimate much smaller magnitudes of price elasticity, which implies that in the short run consumers are much less responsive to changes in prices than previously believed. Policies based on previous (higher) estimates are likely to take longer time to be effective, since these estimates are confounding short-run and long-run consumer responses to price changes.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87544430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent literature has highlighted the importance of considering the financial cycle for the estimation of business cycles. The applied estimation approaches, however, differ widely and cyclical estimates are therefore difficult to compare. In this paper, we assess the robustness of finance-augmented business cycle estimates to different trend specifications for Japan, the UK, and the US. In line with earlier studies, we confirm that the inclusion of financial variables strongly affects the estimates of the business cycle, resulting in larger amplitudes and more persistent dynamics than traditional cycle estimates. While the dynamics of the cyclical component does not depend much on the model used, its amplitude shows strong sensitivity to the underlying assumptions of the trend model.
{"title":"Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check","authors":"Octavio Fernández-Amador","doi":"10.7892/BORIS.91717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7892/BORIS.91717","url":null,"abstract":"Recent literature has highlighted the importance of considering the financial cycle for the estimation of business cycles. The applied estimation approaches, however, differ widely and cyclical estimates are therefore difficult to compare. In this paper, we assess the robustness of finance-augmented business cycle estimates to different trend specifications for Japan, the UK, and the US. In line with earlier studies, we confirm that the inclusion of financial variables strongly affects the estimates of the business cycle, resulting in larger amplitudes and more persistent dynamics than traditional cycle estimates. While the dynamics of the cyclical component does not depend much on the model used, its amplitude shows strong sensitivity to the underlying assumptions of the trend model.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91325851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tenure contract is criticized for curbing the incentives for spending effort after obtaining the tenured status. Yet, the best faculty seems to work on a tenure contract, and schools who employ the best faculty seem to prefer to offer a tenure-track contract to their new hires. I argue that tenure-track contracts are by construction more attractive to more able freshly minted PhDs, and therefore the observed sorting is rationalizable.
{"title":"Tenure-Track Contract Helps Self-Selection","authors":"Sergey V Popov","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2580900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2580900","url":null,"abstract":"Tenure contract is criticized for curbing the incentives for spending effort after obtaining the tenured status. Yet, the best faculty seems to work on a tenure contract, and schools who employ the best faculty seem to prefer to offer a tenure-track contract to their new hires. I argue that tenure-track contracts are by construction more attractive to more able freshly minted PhDs, and therefore the observed sorting is rationalizable.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77134277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We build on existing literature and contemporary challenges to African development to assess the role of political stability in fighting corruption and boosting corruption-control in 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. We postulate that on the one hand, an atmosphere of political instability should increase the confidence of impunity owing to less corruption-control. On the other hand, in the absence such impunity from corruption, political instability further fuels corruption. Our findings validate both hypotheses. Hence, contrary to a stream of the literature, we establish causal evidence of a positive (negative) nexus between political stability/no violence and corruption-control (corruption). The empirical evidence is based on Generalized Methods of Moments. The findings are robust to contemporary and non-contemporary quantile regressions. The political stability estimates are consistently significant with decreasing (increasing) magnitudes throughout the conditional distributions of corruption (corruption-control). In other words, the positive responsiveness of corruption-control to political stability is an increasing function of corruption-control while the negative responsiveness of corruption to political stability is a decreasing function of corruption. Simply put: a good turn deserves another.
{"title":"A Good Turn Deserves Another: Political Stability, Corruption and Corruption-Control","authors":"S. Asongu, Jacinta C. Nwachukwu","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2662731","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2662731","url":null,"abstract":"We build on existing literature and contemporary challenges to African development to assess the role of political stability in fighting corruption and boosting corruption-control in 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. We postulate that on the one hand, an atmosphere of political instability should increase the confidence of impunity owing to less corruption-control. On the other hand, in the absence such impunity from corruption, political instability further fuels corruption. Our findings validate both hypotheses. Hence, contrary to a stream of the literature, we establish causal evidence of a positive (negative) nexus between political stability/no violence and corruption-control (corruption). The empirical evidence is based on Generalized Methods of Moments. The findings are robust to contemporary and non-contemporary quantile regressions. The political stability estimates are consistently significant with decreasing (increasing) magnitudes throughout the conditional distributions of corruption (corruption-control). In other words, the positive responsiveness of corruption-control to political stability is an increasing function of corruption-control while the negative responsiveness of corruption to political stability is a decreasing function of corruption. Simply put: a good turn deserves another.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77827601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we discuss a scenario in capital structure where two divisional managers compete for capital from a firm for their projects in a perfect information setting. We consider verifiable profits and study take-it-or-leave-it contracts where the managers ask for capital from the firm privately or sequentially in public and offer a part of the profit to the firm. Under capital constraint, we demonstrate that in private meeting, there is no sub game perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) in pure strategies; but in sequential public meeting, SPNE exists in pure strategies and, for the firm it is better to operate under capital constraint to increase the competition among managers.
{"title":"Capital rationing under perfect information","authors":"A. Chand, Amit R k","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2433923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2433923","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we discuss a scenario in capital structure where two divisional managers compete for capital from a firm for their projects in a perfect information setting. We consider verifiable profits and study take-it-or-leave-it contracts where the managers ask for capital from the firm privately or sequentially in public and offer a part of the profit to the firm. Under capital constraint, we demonstrate that in private meeting, there is no sub game perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) in pure strategies; but in sequential public meeting, SPNE exists in pure strategies and, for the firm it is better to operate under capital constraint to increase the competition among managers.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87576877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper proposes the thorough investigation of in-sample and out-of-sample performance of five GARCH and two stochastic volatility models, estimated on the Russian financial data. The data includes prices of Aeroflot and Gazprom stocks and Ruble against US dollar exchange rates. In our analysis we use probability integral transform for in-sample comparison and Mincer-Zarnowitz regression along with classical forecast performance measures for out-of-sample comparison. Studying both the explanatory and the forecasting power of the considered models we came to the conclusion that stochastic volatility models perform equally or in some cases better than GARCH models.
{"title":"Fluke of stochastic volatility versus GARCH inevitability or which model creates better forecasts","authors":"Lakshina Valeriya Vladimirovna, M. Andrey","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2513851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2513851","url":null,"abstract":"The paper proposes the thorough investigation of in-sample and out-of-sample performance of five GARCH and two stochastic volatility models, estimated on the Russian financial data. The data includes prices of Aeroflot and Gazprom stocks and Ruble against US dollar exchange rates. In our analysis we use probability integral transform for in-sample comparison and Mincer-Zarnowitz regression along with classical forecast performance measures for out-of-sample comparison. Studying both the explanatory and the forecasting power of the considered models we came to the conclusion that stochastic volatility models perform equally or in some cases better than GARCH models.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82125851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-10-01DOI: 10.1142/9781786349699_0012
J Wagner
This paper uses comparable firm level data from France, Italy and Spain to test a hypothesis derived by Bustos (AER 2011) in a model that explains the decision of heterogeneous firms to export and to engage in R&D. Using a non-parametric test for first order stochastic dominance it is shown that, in line with this hypothesis, the productivity distribution of firms with exports and R&D dominates that of exporters without R&D, which in turn dominates that of firms that neither export nor engage in R&D. These results are in line with findings for Argentina reported by Bustos, and with findings for Germany and Denmark. The model, therefore, seems to be useful to guide empirical work on the relation between exports, R&D and productivity.
{"title":"Exports, R&D and Productivity: A Test of the Bustos-model with Enterprise Data from France, Italy and Spain","authors":"J Wagner","doi":"10.1142/9781786349699_0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9781786349699_0012","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses comparable firm level data from France, Italy and Spain to test a hypothesis derived by Bustos (AER 2011) in a model that explains the decision of heterogeneous firms to export and to engage in R&D. Using a non-parametric test for first order stochastic dominance it is shown that, in line with this hypothesis, the productivity distribution of firms with exports and R&D dominates that of exporters without R&D, which in turn dominates that of firms that neither export nor engage in R&D. These results are in line with findings for Argentina reported by Bustos, and with findings for Germany and Denmark. The model, therefore, seems to be useful to guide empirical work on the relation between exports, R&D and productivity.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88736859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-09-24DOI: 10.1142/9781786349699_0011
J Wagner
This note uses comparable representative data for manufacturing firms from five European countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) to investigate the links between firm age and the participation of the firms in export, the share of exports in total sales, the number of countries exported to, and the participation in import. The big picture revealed is in line with the theoretical considerations. Older firms tend to be more often exporters and importers, they export to more different destination countries, and they export a higher share of their total sales in three out of five countries.
{"title":"Firm Age and the Margins of International Trade: Comparable Evidence from Five European Countries","authors":"J Wagner","doi":"10.1142/9781786349699_0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9781786349699_0011","url":null,"abstract":"This note uses comparable representative data for manufacturing firms from five European countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) to investigate the links between firm age and the participation of the firms in export, the share of exports in total sales, the number of countries exported to, and the participation in import. The big picture revealed is in line with the theoretical considerations. Older firms tend to be more often exporters and importers, they export to more different destination countries, and they export a higher share of their total sales in three out of five countries.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73357317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-01-01DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-41109-0_4
Guifu Chen, S. Hamori
{"title":"Do Chinese employers discriminate against females when hiring employees","authors":"Guifu Chen, S. Hamori","doi":"10.1007/978-3-642-41109-0_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41109-0_4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84594560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper focuses on the transmission of bank liquidity shocks in Loan and deposit in emerging markets. First, we attempt to identify the factors that affect the credit strategy of foreign banks in emerging countries. Second, we test whether depositors do exert market discipline on foreign subsidiaries. Combining between financial variables of subsidiaries, their parent banks, and macroeconomic variables of host and home countries, we investigate the factors that are likely to impact the depositors' behaviour. Our empirical approach is based on a Partial Least Squares-Path model, through which we can identify the causal relationships between the various groups of variables. Our results show that foreign bank lending is determined by the specific financial variables of the parent bank as well as macroeconomic variables of the country of origin. This means that the foreign subsidiary's strategy credit is centrally managed at the parent bank and that subsidiaries' credit supply depends primarily on the financial situation of its parent bank. Finally, we evidence market discipline as applied to foreign subsidiaries in emerging countries. We demonstrate that market discipline is strongly affected by the specific characteristics of the subsidiary.
{"title":"Determinants of loans and deposits strategies of foreign bank subsidiaries in emerging countries","authors":"Jean-Michel Sahut, M. Mili","doi":"10.5195/emaj.2013.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5195/emaj.2013.42","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the transmission of bank liquidity shocks in Loan and deposit in emerging markets. First, we attempt to identify the factors that affect the credit strategy of foreign banks in emerging countries. Second, we test whether depositors do exert market discipline on foreign subsidiaries. Combining between financial variables of subsidiaries, their parent banks, and macroeconomic variables of host and home countries, we investigate the factors that are likely to impact the depositors' behaviour. Our empirical approach is based on a Partial Least Squares-Path model, through which we can identify the causal relationships between the various groups of variables. Our results show that foreign bank lending is determined by the specific financial variables of the parent bank as well as macroeconomic variables of the country of origin. This means that the foreign subsidiary's strategy credit is centrally managed at the parent bank and that subsidiaries' credit supply depends primarily on the financial situation of its parent bank. Finally, we evidence market discipline as applied to foreign subsidiaries in emerging countries. We demonstrate that market discipline is strongly affected by the specific characteristics of the subsidiary.","PeriodicalId":47355,"journal":{"name":"Economics Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2013-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79201199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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