Pub Date : 2023-12-30DOI: 10.1177/10439862231219470
Philip J. Cook, Javier Lopez
Chicago’s homicide arrest rate dropped from 91% in 1965 to 57% in 1994 and dropped still lower in recent years. This pattern mirrors the trend in the national homicide clearance rate. A plausible explanation for this great decline is the trend in homicide case mix, which arguably has made it intrinsically more difficult to solve homicide cases. Our analysis describes the change in case mix for the period 1965 to 2020 and analyzes the effect on the arrest rate for the first 30 years of this period, all by use of a unique homicide case microdata set. We document the large changes in case mix: for example, the percentage of all homicides in which a male victim was shot outdoors increased from 18% (1965) to 69% (2020). But the change in case mix does not account for Chicago’s great decline during the earlier decades, as we demonstrate by use of a novel arrest rate index. In fact, the arrest rates in each of the categories defined by location, sex, and weapon type exhibited similar declines through 1994. (Subsequent years of arrest data are unavailable for now.) Our preferred explanation for the great decline is that the operational standard for making an arrest increased during this period. That interpretation is well supported by evidence explaining the corresponding national trend, though direct evidence is lacking for Chicago. This interpretation challenges the use of the arrest rate as a police performance indicator and offers a positive interpretation of the great decline.
{"title":"Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest","authors":"Philip J. Cook, Javier Lopez","doi":"10.1177/10439862231219470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231219470","url":null,"abstract":"Chicago’s homicide arrest rate dropped from 91% in 1965 to 57% in 1994 and dropped still lower in recent years. This pattern mirrors the trend in the national homicide clearance rate. A plausible explanation for this great decline is the trend in homicide case mix, which arguably has made it intrinsically more difficult to solve homicide cases. Our analysis describes the change in case mix for the period 1965 to 2020 and analyzes the effect on the arrest rate for the first 30 years of this period, all by use of a unique homicide case microdata set. We document the large changes in case mix: for example, the percentage of all homicides in which a male victim was shot outdoors increased from 18% (1965) to 69% (2020). But the change in case mix does not account for Chicago’s great decline during the earlier decades, as we demonstrate by use of a novel arrest rate index. In fact, the arrest rates in each of the categories defined by location, sex, and weapon type exhibited similar declines through 1994. (Subsequent years of arrest data are unavailable for now.) Our preferred explanation for the great decline is that the operational standard for making an arrest increased during this period. That interpretation is well supported by evidence explaining the corresponding national trend, though direct evidence is lacking for Chicago. This interpretation challenges the use of the arrest rate as a police performance indicator and offers a positive interpretation of the great decline.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":" 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139139188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-21DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190213
G. LaFree, Bo Jiang, Yesenia Yanez
Over the past two decades, the study of terrorism has been increasingly integrated into mainstream criminology. Like other types of criminal behavior, terrorism can be divided into etiology (an emphasis on “breaking laws”) and criminal justice (an emphasis on “making laws” and “reacting toward the breaking of laws”). Moreover, like the study of crime, the study of terrorism is inherently multidisciplinary. Nevertheless, terrorism differs from more common forms of crime in fundamental ways: Terrorist perpetrators, unlike common criminals, rarely see themselves as criminal, often seek rather than eschew publicity, and often have broader political goals. Despite similarities and differences, we could identify little prior research that has directly compared the determinants of terrorism and more ordinary types of crime. In this article, we create large cross-national datasets on homicides and terrorist attacks and then compare the effects of a set of common economic, political, and social variables on each. We find a good deal of similarity in the determinants of the two types of violence. Both homicide and terrorism are more common in countries with high GDP, high percent urban, high ethnic fractionalization, and in countries moving toward democratization. Both homicide and terrorism are low in countries experiencing high globalization. Although homicides are more common in countries experiencing high levels of inequality and poverty, neither of these two variables is significantly associated with terrorist attacks. We discuss the implications of the findings for theory, policy, and future research.
{"title":"Comparing the Determinants of Worldwide Homicide and Terrorism","authors":"G. LaFree, Bo Jiang, Yesenia Yanez","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190213","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past two decades, the study of terrorism has been increasingly integrated into mainstream criminology. Like other types of criminal behavior, terrorism can be divided into etiology (an emphasis on “breaking laws”) and criminal justice (an emphasis on “making laws” and “reacting toward the breaking of laws”). Moreover, like the study of crime, the study of terrorism is inherently multidisciplinary. Nevertheless, terrorism differs from more common forms of crime in fundamental ways: Terrorist perpetrators, unlike common criminals, rarely see themselves as criminal, often seek rather than eschew publicity, and often have broader political goals. Despite similarities and differences, we could identify little prior research that has directly compared the determinants of terrorism and more ordinary types of crime. In this article, we create large cross-national datasets on homicides and terrorist attacks and then compare the effects of a set of common economic, political, and social variables on each. We find a good deal of similarity in the determinants of the two types of violence. Both homicide and terrorism are more common in countries with high GDP, high percent urban, high ethnic fractionalization, and in countries moving toward democratization. Both homicide and terrorism are low in countries experiencing high globalization. Although homicides are more common in countries experiencing high levels of inequality and poverty, neither of these two variables is significantly associated with terrorist attacks. We discuss the implications of the findings for theory, policy, and future research.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47023811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-20DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190206
C. Kubrin, Bradley J. Bartos
California has fundamentally reformed its criminal justice system. Since 2011, the state passed several reforms which reduced its massive prison population. Importantly, this decarceration has not harmed public safety as research finds these measures had no impact on violent crime and only marginal impacts on property crime statewide. The COVID-19 pandemic furthered the state’s trend in decarceration, as California reduced prison and jail populations to slow the spread of the virus. In fact, in terms of month-to-month proportionate changes in the state correctional population, California’s efforts to reduce overcrowding as a means to limit the spread of COVID-19 reduced the correctional population more severely and abruptly than any of the state’s decarceration reforms. Although research suggests the criminal justice reforms did not threaten public safety, there is reason to suspect COVID-mitigation releases did. How are COVID-19 jail downsizing measures and crime trends related in California, if at all? We address this question in the current study. We employ a synthetic control group design to estimate the impact of jail decarceration intended to mitigate COVID-19 spread on crime in California’s 58 counties. Adapting the traditional method to account for the “fuzzy-ness” of the intervention, we utilize natural variation among counties to isolate decarceration’s impact on crime from various other shocks affecting California as a whole. Findings do not suggest a consistent relationship between COVID-19 jail decarceration and violent or property crime at the county level.
{"title":"The COVID-19 Pandemic, Prison Downsizing, and Crime Trends","authors":"C. Kubrin, Bradley J. Bartos","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190206","url":null,"abstract":"California has fundamentally reformed its criminal justice system. Since 2011, the state passed several reforms which reduced its massive prison population. Importantly, this decarceration has not harmed public safety as research finds these measures had no impact on violent crime and only marginal impacts on property crime statewide. The COVID-19 pandemic furthered the state’s trend in decarceration, as California reduced prison and jail populations to slow the spread of the virus. In fact, in terms of month-to-month proportionate changes in the state correctional population, California’s efforts to reduce overcrowding as a means to limit the spread of COVID-19 reduced the correctional population more severely and abruptly than any of the state’s decarceration reforms. Although research suggests the criminal justice reforms did not threaten public safety, there is reason to suspect COVID-mitigation releases did. How are COVID-19 jail downsizing measures and crime trends related in California, if at all? We address this question in the current study. We employ a synthetic control group design to estimate the impact of jail decarceration intended to mitigate COVID-19 spread on crime in California’s 58 counties. Adapting the traditional method to account for the “fuzzy-ness” of the intervention, we utilize natural variation among counties to isolate decarceration’s impact on crime from various other shocks affecting California as a whole. Findings do not suggest a consistent relationship between COVID-19 jail decarceration and violent or property crime at the county level.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45659182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-08DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190212
Min Xie, Veyli Ortiz Solis, P. Chauhan
Victims’ willingness to report crime and their opinions about the police are important indicators of police performance, police legitimacy, and trust in the justice system. This study examines two decades of trends in police notification and victims’ perceptions of the police in the United States and major metropolitan areas since 2000, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In contrast to previous studies indicating an increase in police notification in the 1980s and 1990s, the present study shows a progressive decline in police notification observed in the last two decades, especially since 2010. Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in victims’ mistrust of police responsiveness since the mid-2000s. Using multivariable regression models that control for potential changes in the characteristics of crime and survey methodology, we find that the victims’ rising distrust of the police is widespread in many metropolitan areas, in all racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups, and especially so for victims of theft, burglary, and simple assault. In the discussion, we suggest that the changing policing strategies and the evolving economic, political, and social environments of the 21st century may help explain the trends identified by this research. Understanding victim reporting trends and victims’ opinions of the police may affect data and policy and help the justice system to better serve victims and enhance public safety.
{"title":"Declining Trends in Crime Reporting and Victims’ Trust of Police in the United States and Major Metropolitan Areas in the 21st Century","authors":"Min Xie, Veyli Ortiz Solis, P. Chauhan","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190212","url":null,"abstract":"Victims’ willingness to report crime and their opinions about the police are important indicators of police performance, police legitimacy, and trust in the justice system. This study examines two decades of trends in police notification and victims’ perceptions of the police in the United States and major metropolitan areas since 2000, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In contrast to previous studies indicating an increase in police notification in the 1980s and 1990s, the present study shows a progressive decline in police notification observed in the last two decades, especially since 2010. Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in victims’ mistrust of police responsiveness since the mid-2000s. Using multivariable regression models that control for potential changes in the characteristics of crime and survey methodology, we find that the victims’ rising distrust of the police is widespread in many metropolitan areas, in all racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups, and especially so for victims of theft, burglary, and simple assault. In the discussion, we suggest that the changing policing strategies and the evolving economic, political, and social environments of the 21st century may help explain the trends identified by this research. Understanding victim reporting trends and victims’ opinions of the police may affect data and policy and help the justice system to better serve victims and enhance public safety.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47670701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-08DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189629
L. Gittner, Jeff A. Dennis
A matrix is proposed to characterize mental health diversion programs and standardize the reporting of program context, outputs, outcomes, and community settings. Data collection for program reporting is challenging because individual programs report on what is relevant to local conditions and may omit or overlook important contextual or structural factors that are key to programmatic success or failure. This limits generalizability and comparability. Using a standard matrix reporting framework clearly lists the constructs of the program, context, and community systems. Two diversion programs are reported demonstrating the use of the matrix. Although different jurisdictions have a wide spectrum of agencies and resources available to support diversion, and may approach the concept differently, standardizing and streamlining reporting will assist with evaluation of diversion and the creation of sustainable programs.
{"title":"A Standardized Matrix for Mental Health Diversion Program Reporting","authors":"L. Gittner, Jeff A. Dennis","doi":"10.1177/10439862231189629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189629","url":null,"abstract":"A matrix is proposed to characterize mental health diversion programs and standardize the reporting of program context, outputs, outcomes, and community settings. Data collection for program reporting is challenging because individual programs report on what is relevant to local conditions and may omit or overlook important contextual or structural factors that are key to programmatic success or failure. This limits generalizability and comparability. Using a standard matrix reporting framework clearly lists the constructs of the program, context, and community systems. Two diversion programs are reported demonstrating the use of the matrix. Although different jurisdictions have a wide spectrum of agencies and resources available to support diversion, and may approach the concept differently, standardizing and streamlining reporting will assist with evaluation of diversion and the creation of sustainable programs.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":"39 1","pages":"613 - 632"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46546431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-06DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189423
Caroline Conrad Ban, Julia Elizabeth Riordan
Cities across the political spectrum in the United States are shifting toward co-responder models that involve social workers with police departments in some capacity, but research is lagging about the proper role of police social workers (PSWs). This case study explores how the micro and macro roles of the embedded PSW model can improve resource delivery and divert people in crisis away from the criminal justice system. Few research studies to date have explored the role and potential effectiveness of creating such a position within police departments. An analysis of 7 months of data found that the PSW was much more efficient than officers in making referrals for high-needs clients. Furthermore, high-needs clients were more likely to have unmet basic needs such as shelter, food, and health care, indicating that police departments may frequently interact with people who have high levels of such needs. Qualitative case notes also revealed that PSWs can divert individuals from the criminal justice system by using crisis intervention and de-escalation techniques on-scene with clients. This research has important implications for improving community safety and well-being, and this case study reveals that PSWs with micro and macro skills are a promising model for improving public safety and justice in the right context.
{"title":"Re-Envisioning Public Safety Through an Embedded Police Social Worker (PSW) Model: A Promising Approach for Multidisciplinary Resource Delivery and Diversion","authors":"Caroline Conrad Ban, Julia Elizabeth Riordan","doi":"10.1177/10439862231189423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189423","url":null,"abstract":"Cities across the political spectrum in the United States are shifting toward co-responder models that involve social workers with police departments in some capacity, but research is lagging about the proper role of police social workers (PSWs). This case study explores how the micro and macro roles of the embedded PSW model can improve resource delivery and divert people in crisis away from the criminal justice system. Few research studies to date have explored the role and potential effectiveness of creating such a position within police departments. An analysis of 7 months of data found that the PSW was much more efficient than officers in making referrals for high-needs clients. Furthermore, high-needs clients were more likely to have unmet basic needs such as shelter, food, and health care, indicating that police departments may frequently interact with people who have high levels of such needs. Qualitative case notes also revealed that PSWs can divert individuals from the criminal justice system by using crisis intervention and de-escalation techniques on-scene with clients. This research has important implications for improving community safety and well-being, and this case study reveals that PSWs with micro and macro skills are a promising model for improving public safety and justice in the right context.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":"39 1","pages":"537 - 554"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43697070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-06DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190215
R. Rosenfeld, Mark T. Berg
Despite its importance for testing criminological theories and informing crime control policy, forecasting crime rates has all but disappeared from criminology. We argue for a resurgence of crime forecasting in the study of crime trends. As an example of the value, as well as the challenges, of forecasting, we engage in a forecasting exercise based on data from New York City. We discuss each of the steps taken to forecast New York’s violent and property crime rates to 2024, from preparing the data for reliable analysis, specifying the forecasting model, selecting the forecasting method, and validating the results. The results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast models show a rise in New York’s violent and property crime rates in 2022 and 2023 before flattening in 2024. Renewed attention to forecasting can help to secure the future of the study of crime trends.
{"title":"Forecasting Future Crime Rates","authors":"R. Rosenfeld, Mark T. Berg","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190215","url":null,"abstract":"Despite its importance for testing criminological theories and informing crime control policy, forecasting crime rates has all but disappeared from criminology. We argue for a resurgence of crime forecasting in the study of crime trends. As an example of the value, as well as the challenges, of forecasting, we engage in a forecasting exercise based on data from New York City. We discuss each of the steps taken to forecast New York’s violent and property crime rates to 2024, from preparing the data for reliable analysis, specifying the forecasting model, selecting the forecasting method, and validating the results. The results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast models show a rise in New York’s violent and property crime rates in 2022 and 2023 before flattening in 2024. Renewed attention to forecasting can help to secure the future of the study of crime trends.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49583120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189615
Ariel L. Roddy, Tristan Nighswander, Juliette Roddy, B. Ray
This research presents the outcomes of a substance use diversion program in a Midwestern county. Specifically, this work assesses the efficacy (operationalized through re-arrest) and cost-efficacy (operationalized through cost per 1% reduction in re-arrest likelihood) of the program across varying levels of American Society of Addiction Medicine levels of care (ASAM LOC). Using a sample of 430 program participants, findings illustrate that the program overall reduced the likelihood of re-arrest over both a 6- and 12-month horizon across program completers. However, more granular analyses revealed differences across ASAM LOC; the most statistically robust form of treatment was the most intensive 3.5 ASAM LOC, which led to an 82% reduction in 6-month re-arrest and an 80% reduction in 12-month re-arrest for those who completed the program relative to those who did not. The 3.5 ASAM LOC was also the most cost-effective among those explored, costing $66.04 per 1% reduction in recidivism. The outcomes of this work emphasize (a) the relevance of the ASAM LOC in determining program efficacy and (b) the need for varying levels of treatment intensity to better accommodate the needs of substance use disorder diversion participants.
本研究提出了在中西部县的物质使用转移计划的结果。具体而言，本研究评估了该项目在美国成瘾医学协会(ASAM LOC)不同级别护理水平上的有效性(通过再次逮捕进行操作)和成本效益(通过每减少1%再次逮捕可能性的成本进行操作)。通过对430名项目参与者的抽样调查，结果表明，该项目总体上降低了项目完成者在6个月和12个月期间再次被捕的可能性。然而，更细致的分析揭示了ASAM LOC之间的差异;统计上最稳健的治疗形式是最强化的3.5 ASAM LOC，相对于那些没有完成该计划的人，完成该计划的人6个月再被捕率降低82%，12个月再被捕率降低80%。3.5 ASAM LOC也是所有研究中最具成本效益的，每减少1%的再犯成本为66.04美元。这项工作的结果强调了(a) ASAM LOC在确定项目有效性方面的相关性，以及(b)需要不同程度的治疗强度，以更好地适应物质使用障碍转移参与者的需求。
{"title":"Outcomes of a Court-Based Substance Use Disorder Diversion Pilot Program: A Cost Analysis","authors":"Ariel L. Roddy, Tristan Nighswander, Juliette Roddy, B. Ray","doi":"10.1177/10439862231189615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189615","url":null,"abstract":"This research presents the outcomes of a substance use diversion program in a Midwestern county. Specifically, this work assesses the efficacy (operationalized through re-arrest) and cost-efficacy (operationalized through cost per 1% reduction in re-arrest likelihood) of the program across varying levels of American Society of Addiction Medicine levels of care (ASAM LOC). Using a sample of 430 program participants, findings illustrate that the program overall reduced the likelihood of re-arrest over both a 6- and 12-month horizon across program completers. However, more granular analyses revealed differences across ASAM LOC; the most statistically robust form of treatment was the most intensive 3.5 ASAM LOC, which led to an 82% reduction in 6-month re-arrest and an 80% reduction in 12-month re-arrest for those who completed the program relative to those who did not. The 3.5 ASAM LOC was also the most cost-effective among those explored, costing $66.04 per 1% reduction in recidivism. The outcomes of this work emphasize (a) the relevance of the ASAM LOC in determining program efficacy and (b) the need for varying levels of treatment intensity to better accommodate the needs of substance use disorder diversion participants.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":"39 1","pages":"555 - 569"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41439586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190214
Meghan L. Rogers
This article explores whether there was a universal increase in homicide victimization in 2014 to 2016 and 2019 to 2020. Although the United States observed increases in homicide victimization in 2014 to 2016 and 2019 to 2002, it is unlikely that all nations observed simultaneous increases in homicide victimization. Therefore, we explore whether countries observed increases in homicide victimization from 2014 to 2016, only part of the time, and before and after 2014 to 2016. We also investigated which nations observed an increase in homicide victimization from 2019 to 2020. We used WHO mortality homicide victimization data for an initial sample of 116 nations. In general, it does not appear that there was a simultaneous universal increase in the times under study. However, most of the sample at some point between 2014 and 2016 experienced increases in homicide victimization.
{"title":"Was There a Universal Homicide Increase in 2014 to 2016 and 2019 to 2020?","authors":"Meghan L. Rogers","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190214","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores whether there was a universal increase in homicide victimization in 2014 to 2016 and 2019 to 2020. Although the United States observed increases in homicide victimization in 2014 to 2016 and 2019 to 2002, it is unlikely that all nations observed simultaneous increases in homicide victimization. Therefore, we explore whether countries observed increases in homicide victimization from 2014 to 2016, only part of the time, and before and after 2014 to 2016. We also investigated which nations observed an increase in homicide victimization from 2019 to 2020. We used WHO mortality homicide victimization data for an initial sample of 116 nations. In general, it does not appear that there was a simultaneous universal increase in the times under study. However, most of the sample at some point between 2014 and 2016 experienced increases in homicide victimization.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135015129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-31DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189986
Kelsey Cundiff
Within the crime trends literature, there exist several notable studies that have examined the linkages between various economic measures and trends in violent and property crime. This research expands on that literature by examining whether and to what extent racial income gaps are related to changes in city-level crime. Pulling together data from the Uniform Crime Report, U.S. Census, and American Community Survey, this project focuses on homicide and violent crime trends of 73 cities from 2006 to 2020 and changes in city-level racial-ethnic income gaps. This study employs a series of multilevel longitudinal models to measure whether changes in this income gap, whether widening or constricting, are related to changes in rates of violent crime and homicide both within and between cities. Results find that changes in any of the racial-ethnic income gaps tested are not related to trends in violent crime and homicide within or between cities. However, the inclusion of the White-Hispanic income gap and total income gap explained sizable portions of the between-city and within-city rates of violence and homicide.
{"title":"City-Level Violent Crime Trends and Racial-Ethnic Income Inequality","authors":"Kelsey Cundiff","doi":"10.1177/10439862231189986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189986","url":null,"abstract":"Within the crime trends literature, there exist several notable studies that have examined the linkages between various economic measures and trends in violent and property crime. This research expands on that literature by examining whether and to what extent racial income gaps are related to changes in city-level crime. Pulling together data from the Uniform Crime Report, U.S. Census, and American Community Survey, this project focuses on homicide and violent crime trends of 73 cities from 2006 to 2020 and changes in city-level racial-ethnic income gaps. This study employs a series of multilevel longitudinal models to measure whether changes in this income gap, whether widening or constricting, are related to changes in rates of violent crime and homicide both within and between cities. Results find that changes in any of the racial-ethnic income gaps tested are not related to trends in violent crime and homicide within or between cities. However, the inclusion of the White-Hispanic income gap and total income gap explained sizable portions of the between-city and within-city rates of violence and homicide.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45593592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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