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Empirical Properties of Crime Rate Trends 犯罪率趋势的经验性质
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189979
D. McDowall
This article considers the operation of the time series processes that underlie U.S. crime rate trends. These processes are important because they carry the influence of the variables that generate the rates. They limit the forms that explanations of crime trends can take, and they open avenues for new theoretical development. Using data from the nation and a panel of large cities, analysis finds that crime trends operate much like random walks or their smoothed cousins; that they rarely deviate from a constant pattern; and that they show little evidence of nonlinearity. The article discusses the substantive implications of these features for understanding crime trends, and it considers directions for expanding the study of their empirical properties.
本文考虑了美国犯罪率趋势背后的时间序列过程的操作。这些过程很重要,因为它们受到产生速率的变量的影响。它们限制了解释犯罪趋势的形式,并为新的理论发展开辟了道路。利用来自全国和一组大城市的数据,分析发现犯罪趋势的运作方式很像随机漫步或它们的平滑表兄弟;它们很少偏离固定的模式;而且它们几乎没有显示出非线性的迹象。本文讨论了这些特征对理解犯罪趋势的实质性影响,并考虑了扩大其经验性质研究的方向。
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引用次数: 0
Trends in U.S. Mass Shootings: Facts, Fears and Fatalities 美国大规模枪击事件的趋势:事实、恐惧和死亡
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189987
J. Fox
Although representing a rather small percentage of gun deaths in the United States, mass shootings receive a disproportionate share of crime news coverage, with the fears of countless Americans at a level well above the actual risk. This article attempts to clarify some of the wide-ranging confusion regarding what exactly is a mass shooting, how often they occur, and whether they have been on the rise over the past several years. After discussion of some methodological issues associated with measuring prevalence, trends exhibited in several reliable data sources on mass shooting are presented. The article concludes with a brief discussion of contagion and whether it is reasonable to expect that the recent spike in mass shootings will persist.
尽管大规模枪击事件在美国枪支死亡人数中所占比例很小,但在犯罪新闻报道中所占的比例却不成比例,无数美国人的恐惧程度远远超过了实际风险。本文试图澄清一些广泛存在的困惑,比如大规模枪击究竟是什么,发生的频率有多高,以及在过去几年中是否呈上升趋势。在讨论了与测量流行率有关的一些方法问题之后,提出了几个可靠的大规模枪击数据来源所显示的趋势。文章最后简要讨论了传染问题,以及预期最近大规模枪击事件的激增将持续下去是否合理。
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引用次数: 0
The Research Utility of the National Violent Death Reporting System for Understanding Homicide Trends 国家暴力死亡报告系统对了解凶杀趋势的研究效用
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189985
Ethan M. Rogers, Jonathan Davis
Homicide trend research has relied heavily on the same two data systems for decades. The current article highlights the research utility of a newer database—the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)—for examining the contours of homicide change. First, we describe the history, design, and availability of the NVDRS, and review past homicide and longitudinal studies using these data. Second, we discuss two features of the data system that researchers should consider when conducting homicide trend analyses: (a) data availability and representativeness and (b) data completeness. Third, we demonstrate a strong degree of correspondence between NVDRS homicide victimization trends and trends from other data systems. Fourth, we illustrate the ways in which the NVDRS can enrich our understanding of homicide trends by examining how homicide characteristics changed during the two recent homicide spikes from 2014 to 2016 and 2019 to 2020.
几十年来,凶杀趋势研究在很大程度上依赖于相同的两个数据系统。目前的文章强调了一个新数据库——国家暴力死亡报告系统(NVDRS)——在研究凶杀案变化轮廓方面的研究效用。首先,我们描述了NVDRS的历史、设计和可用性,并使用这些数据回顾了过去的凶杀和纵向研究。其次,我们讨论了研究人员在进行凶杀趋势分析时应考虑的数据系统的两个特征:(a)数据的可用性和代表性;(b)数据的完整性。第三,我们展示了NVDRS凶杀案受害趋势与其他数据系统的趋势之间的高度一致性。第四,我们通过研究2014年至2016年和2019年至2020年最近两次凶杀案高峰期间凶杀案特征的变化,说明了NVDRS如何丰富我们对凶杀案趋势的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying Multilevel Community Supervision Challenges to Inform Diversion Approaches for People With Mental Illnesses 识别多层次社区监督挑战,为精神疾病患者提供信息转移方法
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189418
Allison K. Waters, Mariah Cowell Mercier, Mackensie Disbennett, Suzanne Ziaii, Gary S. Cuddeback, Tracy Velázquez, Tonya B. Van Deinse
Efforts to divert people with mental illnesses from the criminal legal system are widespread among mental health and criminal justice authorities. Most diversion efforts focus on directing individuals with mental illnesses to treatment; however, these treatment-focused interventions are an insufficient approach to diverting people with mental illnesses from the criminal legal system and fail to adequately address organizational and system-level factors that impact criminal legal system involvement. This study uses a social ecological approach to identify multilevel supervision challenges that probation officers face in diverting people with mental illnesses from future criminal legal system involvement. Twenty-six probation agency representatives from across the United States were interviewed as part of a larger study about supervising people with mental illnesses on probation. Salient themes indicate diversion targets related to (1) probation officer and agency capacity, (2) interorganizational relationships and roles, and (3) resources and systems in the local community. A comprehensive framework for diversion must include a both-and approach that maintains focus on individual-level supports and predictors of recidivism and violations, while also targeting the macro- or system-level factors that create the conditions for recidivism at the individual level.
精神卫生和刑事司法当局普遍努力将精神疾病患者从刑事司法系统中转移出去。大多数转移注意力的努力都集中在指导精神疾病患者接受治疗;然而,这些以治疗为重点的干预措施不足以将精神疾病患者从刑事法律系统中转移出来,也未能充分解决影响刑事法律系统参与的组织和系统层面的因素。本研究使用社会生态学方法来识别缓刑官员在将精神疾病患者从未来的刑事法律体系中转移出来时所面临的多层次监督挑战。来自美国各地的26名缓刑机构代表接受了采访,这是一项关于监督缓刑期间精神疾病患者的大型研究的一部分。突出主题表明转移目标与(1)缓刑官和机构能力,(2)组织间关系和角色,以及(3)当地社区的资源和系统相关。一个全面的转移犯罪框架必须包括一种兼容并蓄的方法,既要关注个人层面的支持和累犯和违法行为的预测因素,又要关注在个人层面上为累犯创造条件的宏观或系统层面的因素。
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引用次数: 1
Who Deserves Diversion? A Theoretical Critique of Mitigation, Consequentialism, and the Juvenile Court 谁值得转移注意力?对减刑、结果主义和少年法庭的理论批判
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189616
S. Zane, D. Mears
The juvenile court was created as a means of diverting youth from the criminal justice system, and, in turn, diversion within the juvenile court has been used for a variety of purposes. This paper argues that an understanding of diversion, and its implications, requires distinguishing deservingness and consequentialism. Analysis of the former goal entails a focus on mitigation and draws attention to a critical gap in scholarship—namely, how do juvenile courts decide which youth deserve diversion? While risk and needs assessments likely play a role, so, too, may mitigation assessments about which youth are more deserving of interventions that may impose less punishment and more rehabilitation. In advancing this argument, we discuss ways in which a focus on diversion, and on mitigation, help to illuminate fundamental tensions in juvenile justice. We discuss, too, ways in which this focus can help to advance research and policy.
少年法庭的设立是为了将青少年从刑事司法系统中转移出去,而少年法庭内部的转移又被用于各种目的。本文认为,要理解转移及其含义,就必须区分应得主义和后果主义。对前一个目标的分析需要关注缓解,并提请人们注意学术上的一个关键差距——即青少年法庭如何决定哪些青少年应该被分流?虽然风险和需求评估可能会发挥作用,但缓解评估也可能发挥作用,即哪些年轻人更值得采取干预措施,减少惩罚,增加康复。在推进这一论点的过程中,我们讨论了如何将重点放在分流和减轻上,有助于阐明青少年司法中的根本紧张关系。我们还讨论了这种关注有助于推进研究和政策的方式。
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引用次数: 0
Occupational Stress Associated With Technological Diversion Among Pretrial Services Officers: A Qualitative Case Study of GPS Supervision for Intimate Partner and Domestic Violence Cases 审前服务人员与技术转移相关的职业压力:亲密伴侣和家庭暴力案件GPS监控的定性案例研究
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189628
S. Lawson, Eric Grommon
The application of global positioning system (GPS) technology as a pretrial diversion mechanism to monitor intimate partner and domestic violence (IPV/DV) cases has become increasingly common. As more jurisdictions implement GPS technology, there is a need to understand the workplace experiences of community corrections officers with this nascent supervision strategy. This qualitative case study draws upon the experiences gleaned from in-depth interviews with all the pretrial officers assigned to technology caseloads (n = 8) in a single jurisdiction to explore prevailing occupational stress themes associated with GPS supervision for IPV/DV cases as a diversion from pretrial detention. The results reinforce and extend a range of well-established stressors in the extant literature related to pretrial officers managing a GPS caseload of IPV/DV defendants. The findings highlight that pretrial officers using GPS technology are expected to serve in other unique roles (e.g., critical educator, software engineer, data collection specialist, communication expert, and victim advocate) in the course of their duties that were unanticipated sources of occupational stress. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.
全球定位系统(GPS)技术作为一种审前分流机制,用于监测亲密伴侣和家庭暴力(IPV/DV)案件已越来越普遍。随着越来越多的司法管辖区实施GPS技术,有必要通过这种新兴的监管策略了解社区矫正官员的工作经验。这一定性案例研究借鉴了对单个司法管辖区负责技术案件(n = 8)的所有审前官员的深度访谈所收集到的经验,以探讨与GPS监督IPV/DV案件相关的普遍职业压力主题,作为审前拘留的转移。研究结果加强并扩展了现有文献中与审前官员管理IPV/DV被告GPS案件负荷相关的一系列行之有效的压力源。研究结果强调,使用GPS技术的审前官员在其职责过程中有望担任其他独特角色(例如,关键教育者、软件工程师、数据收集专家、通信专家和受害者辩护律师),这是意想不到的职业压力来源。对政策和实践的影响进行了讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Perspectives on Diversion in the Criminal Justice and Health care Systems 在刑事司法和卫生保健系统转移的观点
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189410
Jerry M. Stott, Jordan T. Giese, L. Gittner, Robert E. Forbis, Jeff A. Dennis
This introduction offers a primer for this special edition of the Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice. The purpose is to provide an interdisciplinary platform for scholars and practitioners to communicate perspectives of criminal justice, criminology, and law; public policy and administration, economics and political science; social work and sociology; behavioral health, counseling and psychology; public health, emergency medicine, and psychiatry around diversion. While disciplines share objectives of diversion as (1) rehabilitation, (2) efficient case processing, and (3) reducing resources, the defining and reporting of diversion differs. Justice-involved individuals with mental health issues making successful re-entry into the civil society, however, becomes convoluted. Diversion in practice has taken many shapes. Diversion in theory has taken many meanings. This special edition offers a variety of empirical and theoretical articles that attempt to provide clarity to an often implemented and understudied area of criminal justice and health care. Interviews with street-level officials, quantitative analyses of programs, and philosophical challenges to innate assumptions about individuals and systems are seen from a wide variety of scholars. The authors showcase their varied backgrounds with graduate students, university faculty, and practitioners, offering the fields of criminal justice and health care insight into diversion at all levels.
这篇介绍为本期《当代刑事司法杂志》的特别版提供了入门读物。目的是为学者和从业者提供一个跨学科的平台,以交流刑事司法,犯罪学和法律的观点;公共政策与管理、经济与政治学;社会工作与社会学;行为健康、咨询和心理学;公共卫生,急诊医学和精神病学都围绕着转移。虽然各学科的分流目标都是:(1)康复,(2)有效处理病例,(3)减少资源,但分流的定义和报告各不相同。然而,与司法有关的有精神健康问题的个人如何成功地重新进入民间社会,就变得复杂起来。在实践中,转移有多种形式。从理论上讲,转移注意力有多种含义。这个特别版提供了各种经验和理论的文章,试图提供一个经常实施和研究不足的刑事司法和卫生保健领域的清晰度。对街头官员的采访,对项目的定量分析,以及对个人和系统固有假设的哲学挑战,都可以从各种各样的学者那里看到。作者展示了他们与研究生、大学教师和从业人员的不同背景,提供了刑事司法和卫生保健领域对各级转移的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Diversion: A Systems Theory Perspective 分流:系统论视角
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189415
L. Gittner, Jeff A. Dennis, Robert E. Forbis
There is a distinct lack of a normative theory for diversion of justice-involved individuals with mental illness at the intersection of the criminal justice and health care systems. The nexus where the criminal justice and health care systems are supposed to connect during diversion is not conceptually framed in a measurable way. The paper proposes a potential systems theory of diversion that explicates the overlapping boundaries within and between the criminal justice and health care systems. From a systems perspective, diversion is operationalized differently depending on the entry of an individual with justice involvement and mental illness into one of the systems. The criminal justice and health care systems have multiple levels (micro-, meso-, and macro-), but individuals enter both systems at the respective systems intersection of the micro- and meso-levels. The theoretical disconnect may fail to consider the impact of criminal justice diversion on the health care system. We propose a unified systems theory of diversion to improve evaluation, comparability, sustainability, resource allocation, and outcomes of diversion programs.
在刑事司法和医疗保健系统的交叉点上,明显缺乏涉及精神疾病患者的司法分流的规范性理论。刑事司法和医疗保健系统在分流期间应该连接的关系在概念上没有以可衡量的方式构建。本文提出了一种潜在的分流系统理论,解释了刑事司法和医疗保健系统内部和之间的重叠边界。从系统的角度来看,分流的操作方式不同,这取决于有司法参与和精神疾病的个人进入其中一个系统。刑事司法和医疗保健系统有多个层面(微观、中观和宏观),但个人在微观和中观层面的各自系统交叉点进入这两个系统。理论上的脱节可能没有考虑到刑事司法分流对医疗保健系统的影响。我们提出了一个统一的分流系统理论,以改进分流计划的评估、可比性、可持续性、资源分配和结果。
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引用次数: 0
Diversion: Where Do We Go From Here? 转移注意力:我们将何去何从?
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189639
Robert E. Forbis, L. Gittner, Jeff A. Dennis, Jerry M. Stott, Jordan T. Giese
This conclusion provides a brief synopsis of the research articles presented in this special edition of The Journal of Contemporary Justice. The research findings clearly demonstrate that when the objective of diversion is sought by diversion-based programs where the criminal justice and health care systems intersect, processes and services frequently break down. As this collection of articles highlights, our collective understanding of diversion is siloed by academic discipline; thus, the broader picture of diversion remains muddled. It remains muddled because the reporting of diversion is scattered across disciplinary journals where a more robust understanding of diversion becomes unwieldy if not impossible for researchers and practitioners alike without sifting through multiple books, journals, manuscripts, and websites. Therefore, diversion will continue to elude efficacy without the coordination and cooperation of numerous disciplines spanning both the criminal justice and health care systems diversion. As this collection of articles strongly suggests, there is a need to create a transdisciplinary understanding of diversion as well as publication outlets so best practices can be developed and shared in one place.
这一结论简要介绍了本期《当代司法杂志》的研究文章。研究结果清楚地表明,当刑事司法和医疗保健系统交叉的基于分流的项目寻求分流目标时,流程和服务经常会出现故障。正如这本文章集所强调的那样,我们对分流的集体理解是由学术学科孤立的;因此,转移注意力的总体情况仍然很混乱。它仍然很混乱,因为对分流的报道分散在各个学科期刊上,如果不筛选多本书、期刊、手稿和网站,研究人员和从业者都很难对分流有更深入的了解。因此,如果没有刑事司法和医疗保健系统分流领域众多学科的协调与合作,分流将继续无法发挥作用。正如这组文章强烈表明的那样,有必要建立对转移注意力和出版渠道的跨学科理解,以便在一个地方开发和共享最佳实践。
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引用次数: 0
Studying Crime Trends: Introduction to the Special Issue 研究犯罪趋势:特刊导言
IF 2 2区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189977
R. Rosenfeld, Mark T. Berg
The study of change over time in crime rates is as old as criminology itself. A fundamental question about crime rates is whether they are moving up or down. This special issue of the Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice brings together recent research on trends in crime and related issues, such as arrests, imprisonment, terrorism, and reporting crimes to the police. These papers show that the study of crime trends is alive and well in criminology and point to innovative data sources, methods, and topics that deepen our understanding of how and why crime rates move up and down over time.
对犯罪率随时间变化的研究与犯罪学本身一样古老。犯罪率的一个根本问题是上升还是下降。《当代刑事司法杂志》的这期特刊汇集了关于犯罪趋势和相关问题的最新研究,如逮捕、监禁、恐怖主义和向警方报告犯罪。这些论文表明,对犯罪趋势的研究在犯罪学中是活跃和良好的,并指出了创新的数据来源、方法和主题,这些数据源、方法和话题加深了我们对犯罪率如何以及为什么随着时间的推移而上下波动的理解。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice
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