Pub Date : 2024-04-16DOI: 10.1177/10439862241245839
Rok Hacin, Gorazd Meško
Government measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 affected crime opportunities and criminal justice systems, resulting in changes in crime trends. This article explores the effects of restrictions (lockdowns) on the number of femicides. The monthly data on femicides from 2017 to 2021 were collected in five Central and South-eastern European countries: Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovenia. The total number of femicides from 2017 to 2021 decreased in all observed countries. Increases were detected in Croatia and Slovenia in 2020. However, they presented an exception to the general trend. The monthly distribution of femicides showed that there was no common point peak month(s) among observed countries. Analyzing the effects of the level of restrictions using the Stringency Index on the number of femicides confirmed the initial observation that the number of femicides was not dependent on lockdown measures. In general, the findings show that restriction measures had no effect on the number of femicides in the studied countries.
{"title":"Femicide and COVID-19 Pandemic: Examining the Situation in Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovenia","authors":"Rok Hacin, Gorazd Meško","doi":"10.1177/10439862241245839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862241245839","url":null,"abstract":"Government measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 affected crime opportunities and criminal justice systems, resulting in changes in crime trends. This article explores the effects of restrictions (lockdowns) on the number of femicides. The monthly data on femicides from 2017 to 2021 were collected in five Central and South-eastern European countries: Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovenia. The total number of femicides from 2017 to 2021 decreased in all observed countries. Increases were detected in Croatia and Slovenia in 2020. However, they presented an exception to the general trend. The monthly distribution of femicides showed that there was no common point peak month(s) among observed countries. Analyzing the effects of the level of restrictions using the Stringency Index on the number of femicides confirmed the initial observation that the number of femicides was not dependent on lockdown measures. In general, the findings show that restriction measures had no effect on the number of femicides in the studied countries.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140694571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-16DOI: 10.1177/10439862241245882
Kyle Treiber
During the COVID-19 pandemic, stay-at-home restrictions significantly changed people’s daily lives around the world. Opportunity and strain theories predict this would lead to an increase in intimate partner abuse (IPA), including intimate partner homicide (IPH). This paper applies an alternative theoretical framework—situational action theory (SAT)—to explain mixed findings regarding changes in IPA and unexpected findings regarding (a lack of) changes in IPH. It is argued that SAT may contribute to explaining the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on IPA and IPH in three important ways: 1. by addressing the fact that motivation is necessary but not sufficient for explaining action and better specifying how motivation translates into IPA and IPH; 2. by addressing the fact that people perceive different alternatives for action and better specifying why some people come to see IPA and IPH as acceptable action alternatives; 3. by addressing the fact that exposure affects people differently and better specifying how stay-at-home restrictions shaped people’s activity fields and, in turn, their perceptions and action choices.
{"title":"Intimate Partner Abuse and Homicide During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Situational Action Theory Analysis","authors":"Kyle Treiber","doi":"10.1177/10439862241245882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862241245882","url":null,"abstract":"During the COVID-19 pandemic, stay-at-home restrictions significantly changed people’s daily lives around the world. Opportunity and strain theories predict this would lead to an increase in intimate partner abuse (IPA), including intimate partner homicide (IPH). This paper applies an alternative theoretical framework—situational action theory (SAT)—to explain mixed findings regarding changes in IPA and unexpected findings regarding (a lack of) changes in IPH. It is argued that SAT may contribute to explaining the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on IPA and IPH in three important ways: 1. by addressing the fact that motivation is necessary but not sufficient for explaining action and better specifying how motivation translates into IPA and IPH; 2. by addressing the fact that people perceive different alternatives for action and better specifying why some people come to see IPA and IPH as acceptable action alternatives; 3. by addressing the fact that exposure affects people differently and better specifying how stay-at-home restrictions shaped people’s activity fields and, in turn, their perceptions and action choices.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140696649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-16DOI: 10.1177/10439862241245888
Olga Cunha, S. Caridade, Rui Abrunhosa Gonçalves
Intimate partner femicide (IPF) and attempted intimate partner femicide (AIPF) are severe forms of violence and global phenomena occurring in all societies worldwide. However, explaining IPF and AIPF is a complex and challenging endeavor. This article delves into the evolution of IPF and AIPF in Portugal during and after COVID-19, seeking to comprehend the underlying explanatory factors through a comprehensive strain-based approach. IPF rates during the COVID-19 pandemic have remained relatively stable, comparable to those observed before the pandemic, following a pattern akin to that documented in other countries. However, a significant increase in AIPF occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a slight uptick in IPF indicators was noted toward the end of the pandemic period (2022). Perpetrators faced various strains, such as separation and financial difficulties, along with experiencing emotions like anger, jealousy, anxiety, and depression, leading to instances of IPF and AIPF. The COVID-19 crisis and associated restrictions introduced additional strains, including social isolation, economic losses, anxiety, and widespread fear, which may contribute to psychological distress, stress, and depression, thereby heightening the likelihood of committing IPF and AIPF. The pandemic restrictions also resulted in limited access to support and protection services, hindering victims from seeking help. Establishing a contingency plan for use in future crises (including pandemics) is imperative to promote support for victims and prevent situations of IPF and AIPF.
{"title":"Understanding Intimate Partner Femicide and Attempted Intimate Partner Femicide During and After COVID-19: A Comprehensive Strain-Based Approach","authors":"Olga Cunha, S. Caridade, Rui Abrunhosa Gonçalves","doi":"10.1177/10439862241245888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862241245888","url":null,"abstract":"Intimate partner femicide (IPF) and attempted intimate partner femicide (AIPF) are severe forms of violence and global phenomena occurring in all societies worldwide. However, explaining IPF and AIPF is a complex and challenging endeavor. This article delves into the evolution of IPF and AIPF in Portugal during and after COVID-19, seeking to comprehend the underlying explanatory factors through a comprehensive strain-based approach. IPF rates during the COVID-19 pandemic have remained relatively stable, comparable to those observed before the pandemic, following a pattern akin to that documented in other countries. However, a significant increase in AIPF occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a slight uptick in IPF indicators was noted toward the end of the pandemic period (2022). Perpetrators faced various strains, such as separation and financial difficulties, along with experiencing emotions like anger, jealousy, anxiety, and depression, leading to instances of IPF and AIPF. The COVID-19 crisis and associated restrictions introduced additional strains, including social isolation, economic losses, anxiety, and widespread fear, which may contribute to psychological distress, stress, and depression, thereby heightening the likelihood of committing IPF and AIPF. The pandemic restrictions also resulted in limited access to support and protection services, hindering victims from seeking help. Establishing a contingency plan for use in future crises (including pandemics) is imperative to promote support for victims and prevent situations of IPF and AIPF.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140695996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.1177/10439862241242868
Janne Kivivuori, Shanta Balgobind Singh, Karoliina Suonpää, G. Jagganath, Anna Raeste, Sultan Khan, P. B. B. Murhula, Robert Chetty
Homicide remains a major cause of death globally. The global risk differentials are a persistent public health challenge. Africa’s homicide rate of 13 victims per 100,000 people is markedly higher than the European average (2.2 per 100,000 people). To understand the causes of such large differences, homicide research needs to move from country-level rates to disaggregated analyses in which homicide is broken down by victim, offender, and incident characteristics. We conducted a pilot study in which the European Homicide Monitor (EHM) coding manual is applied to a South African research location and compared to an extreme point in the Global North, Finnish urban areas. We find differential patterns in the two locations. The high-rate context of South Africa manifests a younger offender and victim age structure, a higher share of criminal and revenge motives and the use of firearms, and incidents in public places. In contrast, the comparatively low-rate Finnish context shows a higher relative share of intimate partner violence and familial incidents taking place in private places. The role of alcohol and drugs appears more salient in Finnish urban homicide, a finding calling for replication. We conclude by discussing the methodological challenges revealed by the pilot comparison.
{"title":"Homicide in Global Extremes: Exploring the Feasibility of EHM-Based Analysis in Finland and South Africa","authors":"Janne Kivivuori, Shanta Balgobind Singh, Karoliina Suonpää, G. Jagganath, Anna Raeste, Sultan Khan, P. B. B. Murhula, Robert Chetty","doi":"10.1177/10439862241242868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862241242868","url":null,"abstract":"Homicide remains a major cause of death globally. The global risk differentials are a persistent public health challenge. Africa’s homicide rate of 13 victims per 100,000 people is markedly higher than the European average (2.2 per 100,000 people). To understand the causes of such large differences, homicide research needs to move from country-level rates to disaggregated analyses in which homicide is broken down by victim, offender, and incident characteristics. We conducted a pilot study in which the European Homicide Monitor (EHM) coding manual is applied to a South African research location and compared to an extreme point in the Global North, Finnish urban areas. We find differential patterns in the two locations. The high-rate context of South Africa manifests a younger offender and victim age structure, a higher share of criminal and revenge motives and the use of firearms, and incidents in public places. In contrast, the comparatively low-rate Finnish context shows a higher relative share of intimate partner violence and familial incidents taking place in private places. The role of alcohol and drugs appears more salient in Finnish urban homicide, a finding calling for replication. We conclude by discussing the methodological challenges revealed by the pilot comparison.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140714653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-30DOI: 10.1177/10439862231219470
Philip J. Cook, Javier Lopez
Chicago’s homicide arrest rate dropped from 91% in 1965 to 57% in 1994 and dropped still lower in recent years. This pattern mirrors the trend in the national homicide clearance rate. A plausible explanation for this great decline is the trend in homicide case mix, which arguably has made it intrinsically more difficult to solve homicide cases. Our analysis describes the change in case mix for the period 1965 to 2020 and analyzes the effect on the arrest rate for the first 30 years of this period, all by use of a unique homicide case microdata set. We document the large changes in case mix: for example, the percentage of all homicides in which a male victim was shot outdoors increased from 18% (1965) to 69% (2020). But the change in case mix does not account for Chicago’s great decline during the earlier decades, as we demonstrate by use of a novel arrest rate index. In fact, the arrest rates in each of the categories defined by location, sex, and weapon type exhibited similar declines through 1994. (Subsequent years of arrest data are unavailable for now.) Our preferred explanation for the great decline is that the operational standard for making an arrest increased during this period. That interpretation is well supported by evidence explaining the corresponding national trend, though direct evidence is lacking for Chicago. This interpretation challenges the use of the arrest rate as a police performance indicator and offers a positive interpretation of the great decline.
{"title":"Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest","authors":"Philip J. Cook, Javier Lopez","doi":"10.1177/10439862231219470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231219470","url":null,"abstract":"Chicago’s homicide arrest rate dropped from 91% in 1965 to 57% in 1994 and dropped still lower in recent years. This pattern mirrors the trend in the national homicide clearance rate. A plausible explanation for this great decline is the trend in homicide case mix, which arguably has made it intrinsically more difficult to solve homicide cases. Our analysis describes the change in case mix for the period 1965 to 2020 and analyzes the effect on the arrest rate for the first 30 years of this period, all by use of a unique homicide case microdata set. We document the large changes in case mix: for example, the percentage of all homicides in which a male victim was shot outdoors increased from 18% (1965) to 69% (2020). But the change in case mix does not account for Chicago’s great decline during the earlier decades, as we demonstrate by use of a novel arrest rate index. In fact, the arrest rates in each of the categories defined by location, sex, and weapon type exhibited similar declines through 1994. (Subsequent years of arrest data are unavailable for now.) Our preferred explanation for the great decline is that the operational standard for making an arrest increased during this period. That interpretation is well supported by evidence explaining the corresponding national trend, though direct evidence is lacking for Chicago. This interpretation challenges the use of the arrest rate as a police performance indicator and offers a positive interpretation of the great decline.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139139188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-21DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190213
G. LaFree, Bo Jiang, Yesenia Yanez
Over the past two decades, the study of terrorism has been increasingly integrated into mainstream criminology. Like other types of criminal behavior, terrorism can be divided into etiology (an emphasis on “breaking laws”) and criminal justice (an emphasis on “making laws” and “reacting toward the breaking of laws”). Moreover, like the study of crime, the study of terrorism is inherently multidisciplinary. Nevertheless, terrorism differs from more common forms of crime in fundamental ways: Terrorist perpetrators, unlike common criminals, rarely see themselves as criminal, often seek rather than eschew publicity, and often have broader political goals. Despite similarities and differences, we could identify little prior research that has directly compared the determinants of terrorism and more ordinary types of crime. In this article, we create large cross-national datasets on homicides and terrorist attacks and then compare the effects of a set of common economic, political, and social variables on each. We find a good deal of similarity in the determinants of the two types of violence. Both homicide and terrorism are more common in countries with high GDP, high percent urban, high ethnic fractionalization, and in countries moving toward democratization. Both homicide and terrorism are low in countries experiencing high globalization. Although homicides are more common in countries experiencing high levels of inequality and poverty, neither of these two variables is significantly associated with terrorist attacks. We discuss the implications of the findings for theory, policy, and future research.
{"title":"Comparing the Determinants of Worldwide Homicide and Terrorism","authors":"G. LaFree, Bo Jiang, Yesenia Yanez","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190213","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past two decades, the study of terrorism has been increasingly integrated into mainstream criminology. Like other types of criminal behavior, terrorism can be divided into etiology (an emphasis on “breaking laws”) and criminal justice (an emphasis on “making laws” and “reacting toward the breaking of laws”). Moreover, like the study of crime, the study of terrorism is inherently multidisciplinary. Nevertheless, terrorism differs from more common forms of crime in fundamental ways: Terrorist perpetrators, unlike common criminals, rarely see themselves as criminal, often seek rather than eschew publicity, and often have broader political goals. Despite similarities and differences, we could identify little prior research that has directly compared the determinants of terrorism and more ordinary types of crime. In this article, we create large cross-national datasets on homicides and terrorist attacks and then compare the effects of a set of common economic, political, and social variables on each. We find a good deal of similarity in the determinants of the two types of violence. Both homicide and terrorism are more common in countries with high GDP, high percent urban, high ethnic fractionalization, and in countries moving toward democratization. Both homicide and terrorism are low in countries experiencing high globalization. Although homicides are more common in countries experiencing high levels of inequality and poverty, neither of these two variables is significantly associated with terrorist attacks. We discuss the implications of the findings for theory, policy, and future research.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47023811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-20DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190206
C. Kubrin, Bradley J. Bartos
California has fundamentally reformed its criminal justice system. Since 2011, the state passed several reforms which reduced its massive prison population. Importantly, this decarceration has not harmed public safety as research finds these measures had no impact on violent crime and only marginal impacts on property crime statewide. The COVID-19 pandemic furthered the state’s trend in decarceration, as California reduced prison and jail populations to slow the spread of the virus. In fact, in terms of month-to-month proportionate changes in the state correctional population, California’s efforts to reduce overcrowding as a means to limit the spread of COVID-19 reduced the correctional population more severely and abruptly than any of the state’s decarceration reforms. Although research suggests the criminal justice reforms did not threaten public safety, there is reason to suspect COVID-mitigation releases did. How are COVID-19 jail downsizing measures and crime trends related in California, if at all? We address this question in the current study. We employ a synthetic control group design to estimate the impact of jail decarceration intended to mitigate COVID-19 spread on crime in California’s 58 counties. Adapting the traditional method to account for the “fuzzy-ness” of the intervention, we utilize natural variation among counties to isolate decarceration’s impact on crime from various other shocks affecting California as a whole. Findings do not suggest a consistent relationship between COVID-19 jail decarceration and violent or property crime at the county level.
{"title":"The COVID-19 Pandemic, Prison Downsizing, and Crime Trends","authors":"C. Kubrin, Bradley J. Bartos","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190206","url":null,"abstract":"California has fundamentally reformed its criminal justice system. Since 2011, the state passed several reforms which reduced its massive prison population. Importantly, this decarceration has not harmed public safety as research finds these measures had no impact on violent crime and only marginal impacts on property crime statewide. The COVID-19 pandemic furthered the state’s trend in decarceration, as California reduced prison and jail populations to slow the spread of the virus. In fact, in terms of month-to-month proportionate changes in the state correctional population, California’s efforts to reduce overcrowding as a means to limit the spread of COVID-19 reduced the correctional population more severely and abruptly than any of the state’s decarceration reforms. Although research suggests the criminal justice reforms did not threaten public safety, there is reason to suspect COVID-mitigation releases did. How are COVID-19 jail downsizing measures and crime trends related in California, if at all? We address this question in the current study. We employ a synthetic control group design to estimate the impact of jail decarceration intended to mitigate COVID-19 spread on crime in California’s 58 counties. Adapting the traditional method to account for the “fuzzy-ness” of the intervention, we utilize natural variation among counties to isolate decarceration’s impact on crime from various other shocks affecting California as a whole. Findings do not suggest a consistent relationship between COVID-19 jail decarceration and violent or property crime at the county level.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45659182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-08DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190212
Min Xie, Veyli Ortiz Solis, P. Chauhan
Victims’ willingness to report crime and their opinions about the police are important indicators of police performance, police legitimacy, and trust in the justice system. This study examines two decades of trends in police notification and victims’ perceptions of the police in the United States and major metropolitan areas since 2000, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In contrast to previous studies indicating an increase in police notification in the 1980s and 1990s, the present study shows a progressive decline in police notification observed in the last two decades, especially since 2010. Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in victims’ mistrust of police responsiveness since the mid-2000s. Using multivariable regression models that control for potential changes in the characteristics of crime and survey methodology, we find that the victims’ rising distrust of the police is widespread in many metropolitan areas, in all racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups, and especially so for victims of theft, burglary, and simple assault. In the discussion, we suggest that the changing policing strategies and the evolving economic, political, and social environments of the 21st century may help explain the trends identified by this research. Understanding victim reporting trends and victims’ opinions of the police may affect data and policy and help the justice system to better serve victims and enhance public safety.
{"title":"Declining Trends in Crime Reporting and Victims’ Trust of Police in the United States and Major Metropolitan Areas in the 21st Century","authors":"Min Xie, Veyli Ortiz Solis, P. Chauhan","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190212","url":null,"abstract":"Victims’ willingness to report crime and their opinions about the police are important indicators of police performance, police legitimacy, and trust in the justice system. This study examines two decades of trends in police notification and victims’ perceptions of the police in the United States and major metropolitan areas since 2000, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In contrast to previous studies indicating an increase in police notification in the 1980s and 1990s, the present study shows a progressive decline in police notification observed in the last two decades, especially since 2010. Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in victims’ mistrust of police responsiveness since the mid-2000s. Using multivariable regression models that control for potential changes in the characteristics of crime and survey methodology, we find that the victims’ rising distrust of the police is widespread in many metropolitan areas, in all racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups, and especially so for victims of theft, burglary, and simple assault. In the discussion, we suggest that the changing policing strategies and the evolving economic, political, and social environments of the 21st century may help explain the trends identified by this research. Understanding victim reporting trends and victims’ opinions of the police may affect data and policy and help the justice system to better serve victims and enhance public safety.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47670701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-08DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189629
L. Gittner, Jeff A. Dennis
A matrix is proposed to characterize mental health diversion programs and standardize the reporting of program context, outputs, outcomes, and community settings. Data collection for program reporting is challenging because individual programs report on what is relevant to local conditions and may omit or overlook important contextual or structural factors that are key to programmatic success or failure. This limits generalizability and comparability. Using a standard matrix reporting framework clearly lists the constructs of the program, context, and community systems. Two diversion programs are reported demonstrating the use of the matrix. Although different jurisdictions have a wide spectrum of agencies and resources available to support diversion, and may approach the concept differently, standardizing and streamlining reporting will assist with evaluation of diversion and the creation of sustainable programs.
{"title":"A Standardized Matrix for Mental Health Diversion Program Reporting","authors":"L. Gittner, Jeff A. Dennis","doi":"10.1177/10439862231189629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189629","url":null,"abstract":"A matrix is proposed to characterize mental health diversion programs and standardize the reporting of program context, outputs, outcomes, and community settings. Data collection for program reporting is challenging because individual programs report on what is relevant to local conditions and may omit or overlook important contextual or structural factors that are key to programmatic success or failure. This limits generalizability and comparability. Using a standard matrix reporting framework clearly lists the constructs of the program, context, and community systems. Two diversion programs are reported demonstrating the use of the matrix. Although different jurisdictions have a wide spectrum of agencies and resources available to support diversion, and may approach the concept differently, standardizing and streamlining reporting will assist with evaluation of diversion and the creation of sustainable programs.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46546431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-06DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190215
R. Rosenfeld, Mark T. Berg
Despite its importance for testing criminological theories and informing crime control policy, forecasting crime rates has all but disappeared from criminology. We argue for a resurgence of crime forecasting in the study of crime trends. As an example of the value, as well as the challenges, of forecasting, we engage in a forecasting exercise based on data from New York City. We discuss each of the steps taken to forecast New York’s violent and property crime rates to 2024, from preparing the data for reliable analysis, specifying the forecasting model, selecting the forecasting method, and validating the results. The results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast models show a rise in New York’s violent and property crime rates in 2022 and 2023 before flattening in 2024. Renewed attention to forecasting can help to secure the future of the study of crime trends.
{"title":"Forecasting Future Crime Rates","authors":"R. Rosenfeld, Mark T. Berg","doi":"10.1177/10439862231190215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190215","url":null,"abstract":"Despite its importance for testing criminological theories and informing crime control policy, forecasting crime rates has all but disappeared from criminology. We argue for a resurgence of crime forecasting in the study of crime trends. As an example of the value, as well as the challenges, of forecasting, we engage in a forecasting exercise based on data from New York City. We discuss each of the steps taken to forecast New York’s violent and property crime rates to 2024, from preparing the data for reliable analysis, specifying the forecasting model, selecting the forecasting method, and validating the results. The results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast models show a rise in New York’s violent and property crime rates in 2022 and 2023 before flattening in 2024. Renewed attention to forecasting can help to secure the future of the study of crime trends.","PeriodicalId":47370,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49583120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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