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Asset Class Selection and Financial Performance of Registered Umbrella Retirement Benefits Schemes in Kenya 肯尼亚注册伞式退休福利计划的资产类别选择和财务表现
3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.47941/ijf.1485
Joan Wanjiku Kibata, Agnes Wanjiru Njeru
Purpose: The financial performance of pension funds has deteriorated over time, threatening their main purpose of shielding retirees from old age poverty. Asset class selection is an essential component of pension management as it outlines the various investments undertaken to give a return, manage risks and maintain the liquidity of the retirement schemes. Uninformed or inappropriate selection of assets may lead to decreased performance of the pension schemes and a consequential decrease in the fund value of the pension savings. This study aimed to ascertain how asset class choice affects the financial performance of Kenyan registered Umbrella Retirement Benefits Schemes (URBS). The main goals of this study were to determine how allocating equity, fixed income, and alternative investments impacts the financial performance of registered URBS in Kenya. Three main research questions were employed in the study. Methodology: This research targeted thirty-two (32) registered Umbrella Retirement Benefits Schemes as of December 2022. The sampling technique in this study was a complete census because the data was available; the researcher sought to reduce errors and give an overall view of the asset allocation and how the Kenyan Umbrella Schemes performed over the five years. The study utilised secondary data which was obtained from the RBA’s website and offices for the five-year period between 2018 and 2022. A quantitative approach using descriptive and inferential analysis was employed. A multiple linear regression model was fitted on the data using SPSS version 27 and STATA version 14.2 for panel data analysis. Tables, charts, and graphs were also used to display the data. Findings: According to the multiple linear regression model's findings, alternative investments highly influenced the financial performance of the URBS, followed by fixed income and equity investments. Real estate contributed the highest returns in alternative investments, followed by offshore investments. For fixed income, treasury bonds and bills contributed the most considerable returns, followed by cash, bank deposits, and corporate and commercial bonds. For the equity investments, quoted equity contributed the most returns, followed by the unquoted equity. It was noted that the allocation of private equity by umbrella schemes was almost non-existent as it only began in 2022. Panel data analysis showed that all the weighted returns of the three asset classes are significant predictors of total weighted return. Weighted returns of offshore investment and property had the most significant associations with total weighted returns among all semi-variables. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The results support increased weighting of alternative investments, particularly offshore investments, followed by fixed-income investments.
目的:养老基金的财务业绩随着时间的推移而恶化,威胁到其保护退休人员免于老年贫困的主要目的。资产类别选择是退休金管理的重要组成部分,因为它概述了为获得回报、管理风险和维持退休计划的流动性而进行的各种投资。不知情或不适当的资产选择可能导致退休金计划的业绩下降,从而导致退休金储蓄的基金价值下降。本研究旨在确定资产类别选择如何影响肯尼亚注册伞式退休福利计划(URBS)的财务绩效。本研究的主要目标是确定分配股权、固定收益和另类投资如何影响肯尼亚注册URBS的财务绩效。本研究采用了三个主要的研究问题。 方法:本研究针对截至2022年12月的32个注册伞式退休福利计划。这项研究的抽样技术是一个完整的人口普查,因为数据是可用的;该研究人员试图减少错误,并对资产分配和肯尼亚保护伞计划在五年内的表现给出一个全面的看法。该研究利用了2018年至2022年五年期间从澳大利亚央行网站和办公室获得的二手数据。采用描述性和推理分析的定量方法。采用SPSS version 27和STATA version 14.2对数据进行多元线性回归模型拟合,进行面板数据分析。表格、图表和图形也被用来显示数据。 研究发现:多元线性回归模型发现,另类投资对城市银行财务绩效的影响最大,其次是固定收益和股权投资。在另类投资中,房地产的回报最高,其次是海外投资。就固定收益而言,国库券和票据贡献了最可观的回报,其次是现金、银行存款、公司和商业债券。在股权类投资中,上市股票的收益贡献最大,其次是非上市股票。有人指出,伞式计划的私募股权分配几乎不存在,因为它在2022年才开始。面板数据分析表明,三种资产类别的加权收益都是总加权收益的显著预测因子。在所有半变量中,海外投资和房地产的加权收益与总加权收益的关联最为显著。 对理论、政策和实践的独特贡献:结果支持增加另类投资的权重,特别是离岸投资,其次是固定收益投资。
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 Methodology: This research targeted thirty-two (32) registered Umbrella Retirement Benefits Schemes as of December 2022. The sampling technique in this study was a complete census because the data was available; the researcher sought to reduce errors and give an overall view of the asset allocation and how the Kenyan Umbrella Schemes performed over the five years. The study utilised secondary data which was obtained from the RBA’s website and offices for the five-year period between 2018 and 2022. A quantitative approach using descriptive and inferential analysis was employed. A multiple linear regression model was fitted on the data using SPSS version 27 and STATA version 14.2 for panel data analysis. Tables, charts, and graphs were also used to display the data.
 Findings: According to the multiple linear regression model's findings, alternative investments highly influenced the financial performance of the URBS, followed by fixed income and equity investments. Real estate contributed the highest returns in alternative investments, followed by offshore investments. For fixed income, treasury bonds and bills contributed the most considerable returns, followed by cash, bank deposits, and corporate and commercial bonds. For the equity investments, quoted equity contributed the most returns, followed by the unquoted equity. It was noted that the allocation of private equity by umbrella schemes was almost non-existent as it only began in 2022. Panel data analysis showed that all the weighted returns of the three asset classes are significant predictors of total weighted return. Weighted returns of offshore investment and property had the most significant associations with total weighted returns among all semi-variables.
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引用次数: 0
Economic policy uncertainty and access to finance: An international evidence 经济政策的不确定性与融资渠道:国际证据
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2898
Mohammed Benlemlih, Çiğdem Vural Yavaş, Cynthia Assaf

In this study, we provide the first attempt to relate economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to firms' access to finance. Using data from 26 countries and the news-based index from Baker et al. (2016), we provide evidence that EPU significantly increases financial constraints and decreases firms' access to finance. Our main inference is robust to alternative measures of financial constraints, alternative samples, alternative model specifications, and several approaches that control for potential endogeneity. We further show that the EPU-financial constraint relationship is driven by both the demand and supply sides of financing. Additional analyses suggest that the impact of EPU on firms' financial constraints is moderated by board characteristics (i.e., gender diversity, independence, and duality). They also highlight the moderating roles of government effectiveness, the rule of law and control of corruption. Collectively, our findings provide novel theoretical and practical contributions in relation to EPU and the firms' setting.

在本研究中,我们首次尝试将经济政策不确定性(EPU)与企业的融资渠道联系起来。利用 26 个国家的数据和 Baker 等人(2016 年)基于新闻的指数,我们提供了证据,证明 EPU 显著增加了财务约束,减少了企业的融资渠道。我们的主要推论对其他金融约束措施、其他样本、其他模型规格以及几种控制潜在内生性的方法都是稳健的。我们进一步表明,EPU 与财务约束之间的关系是由融资的供需双方共同驱动的。其他分析表明,EPU 对企业财务约束的影响受董事会特征(即性别多样性、独立性和双重性)的调节。这些分析还强调了政府效率、法治和腐败控制的调节作用。总之,我们的研究结果为 EPU 和企业环境提供了新的理论和实践贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting corporate governance and financial risk-taking 重新审视公司治理与金融风险承担
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2896
Noora Alzayed, Rasol Eskandari, Arman Eshraghi, Hassan Yazdifar

Corporate governance attributes have varying effects on risk taking when variables are examined separately. We study the effects of a large range of corporate governance attributes on risk taking using a comprehensive US sample. Our findings confirm that although there are certain characteristics that drive this positive effect such as compensation structure, there are those which have the opposite effect such as board-level attributes. Our paper contributes to the broader literature on the relationship between corporate governance and risk in financial institutions, which are often overlooked in traditional studies. We shed light on the importance of studying corporate governance at a granular level rather than using a single index. The findings offer insights to regulators in determining suitable corporate governance frameworks to ensure the protection of investors rights in financial institutions.

如果对变量进行单独研究,公司治理属性对风险承担的影响各不相同。我们利用一个全面的美国样本,研究了大量公司治理属性对风险承担的影响。我们的研究结果证实,虽然某些特征(如薪酬结构)会产生积极影响,但也有一些特征(如董事会层面的特征)会产生相反的影响。我们的论文为有关金融机构公司治理与风险之间关系的更广泛的文献做出了贡献,而这些文献在传统研究中往往被忽视。我们阐明了从细微层面研究公司治理而非使用单一指数的重要性。研究结果为监管机构确定合适的公司治理框架以确保金融机构的投资者权益保护提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Life insurance consumption across generations: The roles of financial knowledge, planning horizon, and self-control 跨代人寿保险消费:金融知识、规划期限和自我控制的作用
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2903
Lucía Rey-Ares, Sara Fernández-López, Sandra Castro-González

Life insurance enhances households' capacity to absorb financial shocks and protects against personal risks that no one likes to contemplate. This is even more important in times of economic hardship such as now, when many Europe countries and particularly Spain are going through difficult times due to rising inflation, the war in Ukraine, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Although previous studies have analysed the driving forces of life insurance demand, the influence of the individual's financial planning horizon, financial knowledge, and financial self-control have been underexplored. This study analyses the influence of personal financial attributes on life insurance demand and, in so doing, explores whether the effects of such attitudes differ across different generational cohorts (i.e., the silent generation, baby boomers, Gen Xers, and millennials). The data, taken from the Survey of Financial Competences, comprises 7245 Spanish individuals. Evidence from multivariate analyses reflects the relevance of standard sociodemographic characteristics in explaining individuals' decisions to become life insurance holders. In contrast, evidence does not support a statistically significant relationship in the case of behavioural variables such as financial self-control and the financial planning horizon.

人寿保险增强了家庭承受金融冲击的能力,并抵御了任何人都不愿考虑的个人风险。在经济困难时期,这一点显得尤为重要,比如现在,许多欧洲国家,尤其是西班牙,由于通胀率上升、乌克兰战争和正在发生的 COVID-19 大流行病,正处于困难时期。尽管以往的研究分析了人寿保险需求的驱动力,但对个人财务规划视野、财务知识和财务自控力的影响却探讨不足。本研究分析了个人财务属性对人寿保险需求的影响,并在此过程中探讨了这些态度对不同世代(即沉默的一代、婴儿潮一代、X一代和千禧一代)的影响是否有所不同。数据来源于财务能力调查,包括 7245 名西班牙人。多元分析的证据表明,标准的社会人口特征在解释个人成为人寿保险持有者的决定方面具有相关性。与此相反,证据并不支持财务自我控制和财务规划期限等行为变量之间存在统计意义上的显著关系。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon emission trading under the wings of black swans and green swans: Evidence from China 黑天鹅和绿天鹅翅膀下的碳排放交易:来自中国的证据
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2904
Yunxia Guo, Yujia Li, Haitao Wu, Yu Hao

In response to the potential green swans event in the future, China is adopting market-oriented means to encourage green development, specifically through carbon emission trading schemes. At the same time, under the outbreak of the current global pandemic, it is equally important to consider the impact of black swan events. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the fluctuations in carbon emission trading prices under green and black swan events by utilizing daily data from seven carbon emission exchanges in China from 2017 to 2020. The analysis includes the construction of multiple regression models, PVAR models, and panel threshold models. Additionally, the study addresses the endogeneity problem by using instrumental variables. The findings of the study indicate that: (1) Rising temperatures will drive up the carbon emissions trading price, and this impact will persist over time. On the other hand, increased humidity levels and sunshine hours will reduce the carbon emissions trading price. Furthermore, there is a positive correlation between the increase in the price of primary energy and the increase in the carbon emissions trading price. (2) The spread of COVID-19 has a restraining effect on the increase in temperature and will have a long-term negative impact on the carbon emissions trading price. (3) The threshold effect concerning the prevalence of pandemics is recognized, which implies that the impact of the epidemic is staged and nonlinear. Overall, the results of this article highlight the importance of a reasonable response to both black swan and green swan events in order to enhance the efficiency of the current emission trading scheme.

为应对未来可能出现的 "绿天鹅 "事件,中国正在采用市场化手段鼓励绿色发展,特别是通过碳排放交易计划。与此同时,在当前全球疫情爆发的情况下,考虑黑天鹅事件的影响也同样重要。因此,本研究旨在利用 2017 年至 2020 年中国七家碳排放交易所的每日数据,分析绿天鹅和黑天鹅事件下碳排放交易价格的波动情况。分析方法包括构建多元回归模型、PVAR 模型和面板阈值模型。此外,研究还利用工具变量解决了内生性问题。研究结果表明(1) 气温上升将推动碳排放交易价格上升,而且这种影响将长期存在。另一方面,湿度和日照时间的增加会降低碳排放交易价格。此外,一次能源价格的上涨与碳排放交易价格的上涨之间存在正相关关系。(2)COVID-19 的传播对气温上升有抑制作用,会对碳排放交易价格产生长期负面影响。(3)大流行病流行的门槛效应得到认可,这意味着流行病的影响是阶段性和非线性的。总之,本文的结果强调了合理应对黑天鹅和绿天鹅事件的重要性,以提高当前排放交易计划的效率。
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引用次数: 0
Profit Forecast Accuracy of Time Series Model - A Case Study of Associated British Foods 时间序列模型的利润预测准确性——以英国联合食品公司为例
3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI: 10.61173/czn50w46
None Yunfan Sun
Accurate earnings per share (EPS) forecasting is crucial for financial decision-making. This study explores the potential of improving EPS forecasting accuracy by integrating economic lead indicators into time-series models. By incorporating macroeconomic factors like GDP growth and interest rates, the models capture the influence of the broader economic environment on a company’s financial performance. Results demonstrate that including economic lead indicators significantly enhances EPS predictability beyond traditional time-series models. This integration offers a forward-looking perspective, comprehensive analysis, and context to the forecasting process, enabling stakeholders to make more informed investment decisions and develop better strategies. Further research can investigate additional lead indicators, assess their impact in different industries, and develop hybrid forecasting models for refined EPS predictions.
准确的每股收益(EPS)预测对财务决策至关重要。本研究探讨将经济先行指标纳入时间序列模型,以提高EPS预测准确度的潜力。通过纳入GDP增长和利率等宏观经济因素,这些模型捕捉到更广泛的经济环境对公司财务业绩的影响。结果表明,与传统的时间序列模型相比,包含经济先行指标显著提高了EPS的可预测性。这种整合为预测过程提供了前瞻性的视角、全面的分析和背景,使利益相关者能够做出更明智的投资决策并制定更好的战略。进一步的研究可以调查更多的领先指标,评估它们在不同行业的影响,并开发混合预测模型来改进EPS预测。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent Analysis Methods and Methodology of Banking Regulation Rules - Real Issues and Improvements in the Implementation by Commercial Banks 银行业监管规则的智能分析方法与方法论——商业银行实施中的现实问题与改进
3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI: 10.61173/prxshr72
None Haoyang An
Banking regulation rules serve as the institutional basis for promoting commercial banks’ healthy and sustainable development. The linguistic complexity within the regulation discourse system leads to challenges in overall comprehension and execution, as well as disparities in interpretation and enforcement. By introducing intelligent analysis methods, the author conducts comparative analysis and historical research on regulation rules from both cross- sectional and historical development perspectives. This approach maximizes the exploration of regulation essence and the identification of laws of change, thus enhancing the effective implementation of regulation rules in the design of commercial banking systems.
银行监管规则是促进商业银行健康可持续发展的制度基础。法规话语体系的语言复杂性导致了其在整体理解和执行上的挑战,以及在解释和执行上的差异。作者通过引入智能分析方法,从横断面和历史发展两个角度对规制规则进行比较分析和历史研究。这种方法最大限度地探索了监管本质,识别了变化规律,从而增强了监管规则在商业银行制度设计中的有效实施。
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引用次数: 0
The Kelly Criterion: Optimizing Decision-Making in Risk Management 凯利准则:风险管理中的优化决策
3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI: 10.61173/6s089240
None Andrew Chen
The Kelly capital growth investment criterion, or Kelly criterion, defines the fraction of wealth to invest in a favorable investment opportunity such that the exponential growth rate is maximized. Maximizing the exponential growth rate is equivalent to maximizing logarithmic utility.[1] It all began in the mid-20th century when John L. Kelly Jr., a researcher at Bell Labs, developed the criterion as a solution to a problem related to the efficient transmission of information in telecommunications. Kelly introduced the concept of the Kelly Criterion within his paper “A New Interpretation of Information Rate,” which he published in his early years. However, he did not refer to the Kelly Criterion by its now- known name. The Kelly Criterion initially gained recognition in academic and mathematical circles, primarily for its applications in information theory. Then, professional gamblers and investors started using the Kelly Criterion to manage their bankrolls and make more informed betting decisions. The financial industry also embraced the Kelly Criterion as an alternative approach to portfolio management and investment strategies. The Kelly Criterion gained further attention in investment circles, particularly in hedge funds and wealth management.
凯利资本增长投资标准,或凯利标准,定义了投资于有利投资机会的财富比例,从而使指数增长率最大化。最大化指数增长率等同于最大化对数效用。[1]这一切始于20世纪中期,当时贝尔实验室(Bell Labs)的研究员小约翰·l·凯利(John L. Kelly Jr.)提出了这一标准,以解决与电信信息高效传输有关的问题。凯利早年发表的论文《信息率的新解释》(A New Interpretation of Information Rate)中介绍了凯利标准的概念。然而,他并没有提到凯利标准的现在已知的名称。凯利标准最初在学术界和数学界获得认可,主要是因为它在信息论中的应用。然后,职业赌徒和投资者开始使用凯利标准来管理他们的资金,并做出更明智的投注决定。金融业也将凯利标准作为投资组合管理和投资策略的替代方法。凯利标准在投资界得到了进一步的关注,尤其是在对冲基金和财富管理领域。
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引用次数: 0
Portfolio Optimization and Analysis Using Modern Portfolio Theory 运用现代投资组合理论进行投资组合优化与分析
3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI: 10.61173/7q7mp960
None Shengrui Ou
In investment transactions, such as stocks and commodities, risk is always involved. The link between investment returns and risk factors is often discussed. Many academics have attempted to develop models under any expected rate of return. The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of modern portfolio theory in optimizing investment portfolios. The paper mainly analyzes the viewpoint through the use of historical financial data. The study constructs and examines portfolios using the Full Markowitz Model (MM) and the Index Model (IM) through five constraint conditions. By incorporating various constraints, the study aims to understand how regulatory, industry- specific, and client-driven limitations impact portfolio construction and performance.
在股票和商品等投资交易中,风险总是存在的。投资回报和风险因素之间的联系经常被讨论。许多学者试图在任何预期回报率下建立模型。本文的主要目的是论证现代投资组合理论在优化投资组合中的应用。本文主要通过使用历史财务数据来分析这一观点。本研究使用完整马科维茨模型(MM)和指数模型(IM)通过五个约束条件来构建和检验投资组合。通过整合各种约束,本研究旨在了解监管、行业特定和客户驱动的限制如何影响投资组合的构建和绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Anchoring effects and applications 锚定效果和应用
3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI: 10.61173/htn7ej80
None Helen Guo
The anchoring effect has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields, including economics, finance, and psychology. This paper describes the background, definition, motivation, and some applications of the anchoring effect. Simultaneously, we pay more attention to the influence on economic research and consumption decisions. In application 1, we focus on the anchoring effect and marketing strategy by analyzing Evian water in Starbucks, the limited purchase of Campbell soup, and the descending price order on the menu. In application 2, we focus on the measurability of the anchoring by calculating the amount of donation under different situations and assessing the house’s value. In application 3, we focus on the link between the anchoring effect and suggestion by analyzing additional questions in two porridge shops. Our studies showed that anchoring affects all aspects of people’s lives. In addition, all our preliminary results illuminate the nature anchoring effect, which significantly influences the research of heuristics.
长期以来,锚定效应一直是一个吸引了包括经济学、金融学和心理学在内的各个领域研究人员的课题。本文介绍了锚定效应的研究背景、定义、动机和一些应用。同时,我们更加关注对经济研究和消费决策的影响。在应用1中,我们通过分析星巴克的依云水,金宝汤的限购,菜单上的降序价格来关注锚定效应和营销策略。在应用程序2中,我们通过计算不同情况下的捐赠金额和评估房屋价值来关注锚定的可测量性。在应用3中,我们通过分析两家粥店的附加问题来关注锚定效应与建议之间的联系。我们的研究表明,锚定会影响人们生活的方方面面。此外,我们所有的初步结果都阐明了自然锚定效应,这对启发式的研究有重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Finance & Economics
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