We examine the effects of three facets of monetary policy in Australia using high-frequency yield changes around the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcements: current policy, signalling/forward guidance and changes in premia. Shocks to current policy have similar effects to those identified using conventional approaches, but the effects of signalling and premia shocks are imprecisely estimated. Still, the approach provides the following evidence: forward guidance shocks raised future rate expectations in the mid-2010s as the Reserve Bank of Australia highlighted housing risks; COVID-era policy mainly affected term premia, unlike pre-COVID policy; shocks to the expected path of rates are predictable, suggesting markets misunderstand the RBA's reaction to data.
{"title":"Can we Use High-Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!*","authors":"Jonathan Hambur, Qazi Haque","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12786","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12786","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the effects of three facets of monetary policy in Australia using high-frequency yield changes around the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcements: current policy, signalling/forward guidance and changes in premia. Shocks to current policy have similar effects to those identified using conventional approaches, but the effects of signalling and premia shocks are imprecisely estimated. Still, the approach provides the following evidence: forward guidance shocks raised future rate expectations in the mid-2010s as the Reserve Bank of Australia highlighted housing risks; COVID-era policy mainly affected term premia, unlike pre-COVID policy; shocks to the expected path of rates are predictable, suggesting markets misunderstand the RBA's reaction to data.</p>","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"3-43"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139978844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Research to date has failed to generate a comprehensive understanding of the source of the gender gap in financial literacy in adulthood. Using microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and an analysis covering four age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29 and 30–34), this paper suggests that the gender gap starts young and well before individuals enter adulthood. The analysis also suggests that that raw (unadjusted) gender gap likely underestimates the underlying gap. It is important to establish whether the gap begins before or after children enter school, since policy aimed at addressing it would be very different.
{"title":"When Does the Gender Gap in Financial Literacy Begin?*","authors":"Alison Preston, Robert E. Wright","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12785","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12785","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Research to date has failed to generate a comprehensive understanding of the source of the gender gap in financial literacy in adulthood. Using microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and an analysis covering four age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29 and 30–34), this paper suggests that the gender gap starts young and well before individuals enter adulthood. The analysis also suggests that that raw (unadjusted) gender gap likely underestimates the underlying gap. It is important to establish whether the gap begins before or after children enter school, since policy aimed at addressing it would be very different.</p>","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"44-73"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1475-4932.12785","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139752372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Welfare for Markets: A Global History of Basic Income, by A. Jäger and D. Zamora Vargas (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2023), pp. 264","authors":"Ben Spies-Butcher","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12791","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12791","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 329","pages":"266-269"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139785936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<p>In his book, Michael Beenstock labels the recent responses to macroeconomic crises that involve setting policy interest rates close to zero and running large budget deficits as ‘the New Abnormal’, with Japan providing an early example of this approach in the 1990s, and many OECD economies following suit during the global financial crisis in 2008 and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Beenstock's central thesis is that such policies generate an ‘existential risk’ in the sense of ultimately being unsustainable and setting up future debt crises with high inflation that cannot be tamed by higher interest rates due to Sargent and Wallace's (<span>1981</span>) ‘unpleasant monetarist arithmetic’ under which spiralling debt service costs necessitate implicit default via monetisation of nominal government debt. Beenstock also sees the ‘stay-at-home’ mitigation policy responses adopted in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic as fitting in with the ‘New Abnormal’ paradigm.</p><p>Cutting interest rates and running large budget deficits might sound to some (like me) as being fairly textbook Keynesian responses to deep recessions rather than being all that ‘abnormal’. But it is the persistent maintenance of such policies following the last two global crises, along with the unconventional nature of monetary policy at the zero lower bound, that particularly concerns Beenstock as being highly ‘unorthodox’ and dangerous. Specifically, he argues that modern macroeconomic theory misinterprets Wicksell's (<span>1898</span>) natural rate of interest in a way that has influenced policymakers to keep interest rates too low for far too long and to rely too much on Quantitative Easing (QE) and large budget deficits without realizing the existential risks to inflation that these policies might pose.</p><p>The big mistake in Beenstock's view is that New Keynesian theory, as developed by Woodford (<span>2003</span>) and others, defines the natural rate of interest as the level consistent with stable inflation at a target level and a zero output gap, while Beenstock prefers Patinkin's (<span>1966</span>) interpretation of Wicksell that the natural rate is the marginal product of capital (minus depreciation) from neoclassical growth theory. Implicitly, Beenstock believes that zero interest rate policy can keep real interest rates away from this ‘neoclassical’ rate beyond the horizon over which prices are sticky, with central banks apparently somehow doing so under the ‘New Abnormal’. Based on back-of-the-envelope calculations of marginal products of capital for different countries, Beenstock's preferred estimates suggest positive neoclassical rates at the same time when estimates of long-run real rates have been negative, while inflation has remained stable at close to target levels and the output gap has also averaged close to zero.</p><p>Why, one might ask, would policymakers not see that they are holding interest rates too low for too long? Beyond Be
在日本以及最近在其他国家，利率之所以长期处于低位，可能是因为新古典利率实际上一直处于低位，而不一定是因为政策在粘性价格的范围之外持续压低实际利率。贝恩斯托克批评现代宏观经济学是 "后现代主义"，这无疑是本书最有趣的部分，其中包括一个有趣的猜测，即福柯可能会如何构架博客圈常说的 "宏观战争"。我个人非常赞同贝恩斯托克对现代宏观经济学的某些批判，并在莫利（2010）一书中提出了相关观点，尤其是关于卢卡斯批判的观点。但同样，如果能更多地接触文献，会更好。例如，参考 Glandon 等人（2023 年）对宏观经济学中不同认识论方法的全面评述，将有助于加强 Beenstock 关于 DSGE 方法的兴起和使用时间序列方法进行实证主义假设检验的衰落的论点。与此同时，应该指出的是，Glandon 等人（2023 年）强调 DSGE 方法近年来在很大程度上接受了模型拟合，这与贝恩斯托克的说法恰恰相反。更广泛地说，贝恩斯托克对现代宏观经济学的批评存在一些大胆的说法，但这些说法并不令人信服。例如，他认为 "VAR 模型[并]不寻求识别政策对宏观经济的因果效应"，尽管这正是结构性 VAR 所要做的。我们可以对经常使用的外生货币政策冲击的识别假设提出批评，但使用结构性 VAR 的目的显然是为了识别因果效应。或许，随着在 VAR 中考虑 "外部工具 "的兴起，这种对因果推断的追求变得更加清晰（例如，Stock & Watson, 2018）。同时，贝恩斯托克认为 "SVAR 爱好者施加了无法检验的限制"，对此我想指出，结构变化和异方差识别允许对识别结构冲击时使用的限制进行一些检验（例如，参见 Lanne & Lütkepohl，2008 年）。在我自己的实证工作中，我有时也是'贝叶斯主义者'，因此读到'贝叶斯主义者相信他们的模型是正确的'时，我也感到非常惊讶，因为这从来都不是我与其他贝叶斯主义者讨论推理时得到的印象，而且这似乎也暗示，与大量文献相反，贝叶斯模型平均化和模型比较并不存在。具体来说，我在阅读近期文献时的印象是，"宏观战争 "已基本结束，经验主义者赢得了一些关键战役。随着估计 DSGE 模型的兴起，人们对宾斯托克提出的 "宏观计量经济学模型必须很好地拟合数据 "这一建议有了强烈的认同。贝恩斯托克认为，"斯梅特-沃特斯模型产生的 VAR 系数与无限制的 VAR 系数截然不同"。但这忽略了 Sims（1980 年）的观点，他也认为宏观计量经济学模型必须很好地拟合数据，但他指出，从隐含移动平均形式（即脉冲响应系数）的角度来比较拟合程度更好，因为由于多重共线性的存在，各种不同的 VAR 系数可以非常相似地拟合数据，但脉冲响应在不同的 VAR 系数估计值中往往更加稳定。明确地说，Smets-Wouters 模型的良好拟合度与其说是由于理论结构造成的内生动态，不如说是由于假定的冲击过程造成的。但两者对可观测变量动态的综合影响是，该模型的拟合效果与缩小形式的 VAR 差不多，至少足以避免扭曲政策的定量效果估计值。考虑到近期事件的发展速度，书中有关 COVID-19 的材料似乎有点过时（例如，对澳大利亚和新西兰疫苗接种率低的讨论），这也许并不奇怪。同样，贝恩斯托克对相关文献的看法也过于狭隘。鉴于他对 SIR 模型的考虑，一个特别令人沮丧的疏忽是，有文献用 SIR 动力学增强了 DSGE 模型，以考虑在允许对流行病做出内生经济反应的情况下的最优缓解政策，Jones 等人（2021 年）就是一个例子（2020 年 4 月有工作论文版本）。
{"title":"Zero Interest Policy & the New Abnormal: A Critique, by Michael Beenstock (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2022)","authors":"James Morley","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12789","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12789","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In his book, Michael Beenstock labels the recent responses to macroeconomic crises that involve setting policy interest rates close to zero and running large budget deficits as ‘the New Abnormal’, with Japan providing an early example of this approach in the 1990s, and many OECD economies following suit during the global financial crisis in 2008 and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Beenstock's central thesis is that such policies generate an ‘existential risk’ in the sense of ultimately being unsustainable and setting up future debt crises with high inflation that cannot be tamed by higher interest rates due to Sargent and Wallace's (<span>1981</span>) ‘unpleasant monetarist arithmetic’ under which spiralling debt service costs necessitate implicit default via monetisation of nominal government debt. Beenstock also sees the ‘stay-at-home’ mitigation policy responses adopted in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic as fitting in with the ‘New Abnormal’ paradigm.</p><p>Cutting interest rates and running large budget deficits might sound to some (like me) as being fairly textbook Keynesian responses to deep recessions rather than being all that ‘abnormal’. But it is the persistent maintenance of such policies following the last two global crises, along with the unconventional nature of monetary policy at the zero lower bound, that particularly concerns Beenstock as being highly ‘unorthodox’ and dangerous. Specifically, he argues that modern macroeconomic theory misinterprets Wicksell's (<span>1898</span>) natural rate of interest in a way that has influenced policymakers to keep interest rates too low for far too long and to rely too much on Quantitative Easing (QE) and large budget deficits without realizing the existential risks to inflation that these policies might pose.</p><p>The big mistake in Beenstock's view is that New Keynesian theory, as developed by Woodford (<span>2003</span>) and others, defines the natural rate of interest as the level consistent with stable inflation at a target level and a zero output gap, while Beenstock prefers Patinkin's (<span>1966</span>) interpretation of Wicksell that the natural rate is the marginal product of capital (minus depreciation) from neoclassical growth theory. Implicitly, Beenstock believes that zero interest rate policy can keep real interest rates away from this ‘neoclassical’ rate beyond the horizon over which prices are sticky, with central banks apparently somehow doing so under the ‘New Abnormal’. Based on back-of-the-envelope calculations of marginal products of capital for different countries, Beenstock's preferred estimates suggest positive neoclassical rates at the same time when estimates of long-run real rates have been negative, while inflation has remained stable at close to target levels and the output gap has also averaged close to zero.</p><p>Why, one might ask, would policymakers not see that they are holding interest rates too low for too long? Beyond Be","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 329","pages":"261-266"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1475-4932.12789","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139752404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Migration and Health, Edited by Sandro Galea, Catherine K. Ettman and Muhammad H. Zaman (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2022), pp. 550, DOI: https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226822495.001.0001","authors":"Alfredo R. Paloyo","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12788","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12788","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"117-119"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139796951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2011, I delivered a keynote address titled ‘Predicting the Present with Google Trends’ at the annual meeting of the Australian Conference of Economists. Working with my colleague Hyunyoung Choi, that talk turned into a paper that was subsequently published in the June 2012 proceedings of this journal. The paper received over 3000 citations in Google Scholar. This enthusiastic reception encouraged me to continue work with my colleague Steve Scott to develop new tools and new examples which are described in this paper.
{"title":"Nowcasting with Google Trends","authors":"Hal Varian","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12783","url":null,"abstract":"In 2011, I delivered a keynote address titled ‘Predicting the Present with Google Trends’ at the annual meeting of the Australian Conference of Economists. Working with my colleague Hyunyoung Choi, that talk turned into a paper that was subsequently published in the June 2012 proceedings of this journal. The paper received over 3000 citations in Google Scholar. This enthusiastic reception encouraged me to continue work with my colleague Steve Scott to develop new tools and new examples which are described in this paper.","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139375652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century, by J. Bradford DeLong (Basic Books, London, 2022), pp. 605","authors":"Declan Trott","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12780","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12780","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"125-127"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138603288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foundations of Real-World Economics: What Every Economics Student Needs to Know, by John Komlos (Routledge, New York, 2023)","authors":"Eileen Tipoe","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12779","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12779","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"123-125"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139227632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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