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A review of the driving forces of the informal economy and policy measures for mitigation: an analysis of six EU countries 审查非正规经济的驱动力和缓解政策措施:对六个欧盟国家的分析
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09842-z
Alban Asllani, Friedrich Schneider

This study presents detailed estimates of the shadow economy's size and development in all European Union (EU) countries with particular emphasis on six specific countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Italy, and Romania) from 2003 to 2022. It focuses on understanding the key factors that motivate economic agents to engage in shadow economy activities within EU and particularly these countries. The estimates presented show a significant reduction in the shadow economy's size from 22.6% of GDP in 2003 to 17.3% in 2022, highlighting the effectiveness of various policy measures implemented in most EU countries with particular focus on these six countries. Despite a slight increase in the shadow economy across most EU nations due to the Coronavirus pandemic after 2020, our research identifies the main determinants of economic informality in most EU countries. Our analysis expose that weak institutional quality, ineffective government institutions, complex and burdensome tax and regulatory systems, the lack of strong legal systems, and pervasive corruption are the main determinants of economic informality in most countries of the EU. The study thoroughly reviews the driving forces behind the shadow economy and discusses the specific policy measures these six countries part of this policy analysis paper have adopted to mitigate and reduce its presence.

本研究详细估算了 2003 年至 2022 年所有欧盟国家的影子经济规模和发展情况,并特别关注六个特定国家(德国、奥地利、丹麦、希腊、意大利和罗马尼亚)。它侧重于了解促使经济主体在欧盟,特别是这些国家从事影子经济活动的关键因素。估算结果显示,影子经济规模从 2003 年占 GDP 的 22.6% 大幅下降到 2022 年的 17.3%,这凸显了大多数欧盟国家(尤其是这六个国家)实施的各种政策措施的有效性。尽管大多数欧盟国家的影子经济在 2020 年后因冠状病毒大流行而略有增加,但我们的研究确定了大多数欧盟国家经济非正规性的主要决定因素。我们的分析表明,制度质量薄弱、政府机构效率低下、税收和监管体系复杂繁琐、缺乏强有力的法律体系以及普遍存在的腐败现象,是大多数欧盟国家经济非正规性的主要决定因素。本研究全面回顾了影子经济背后的驱动力,并讨论了本政策分析报告所涉及的六个国家为缓解和减少影子经济所采取的具体政策措施。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of electronic cash registers on reported revenue 电子收银机对报告收入的影响
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09844-x
Per Engström, Johannes Hagen, Alireza Khoshghadam, Andrea Schneider

We assess the impact of a Swedish regulatory change, which required businesses with any business-to-consumer transactions, whether by cash or card, to use a certified electronic cash register (ECR), on reported revenue. To do this, we use administrative data on the monthly reported revenue of all affected firms and a staggered difference-in-differences approach. Our findings indicate that there was an immediate increase of about 2.7–4.3% in reported revenue following the implementation of a certified ECR. However, the effect was temporary and diminished to zero after just a few months, which indicates that firms found innovative methods to underreport their revenue.

我们评估了瑞典的一项监管改革对报告收入的影响,该改革要求任何企业与消费者之间的交易,无论是现金交易还是刷卡交易,都必须使用经过认证的电子收银机(ECR)。为此,我们使用了所有受影响企业每月报告收入的行政数据,并采用了交错差分法。我们的研究结果表明,实施经认证的电子收银机后,报告收入立即增加了约 2.7-4.3%。然而,这种影响是暂时的,仅仅几个月后就减弱为零,这表明企业找到了创新方法来少报收入。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating national accounting and macroeconomic approaches to estimate the underground, informal, and illegal economy in European countries 整合国民核算和宏观经济方法,估算欧洲国家的地下、非正规和非法经济
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09835-y
Roberto Dell’Anno

This article proposes a hybrid national accounts (NA)-macroeconometric approach to fill the gap between the demand for reliable and internationally comparable estimates and the sparse availability of official statistics based on the NA approach. The proposed method combines data from Eurostat’s Tabular approach for the exhaustiveness of NA with estimates based on theoretical hypotheses on the drivers of non-observed production. We estimate underground, informal, and illegal economies for 22 European countries over the period 2000–2020.

本文提出了一种国民核算(NA)-宏观计量经济学混合方法,以填补对可靠且具有国际可比性的估算的需求与基于国民核算方法的官方统计数据稀缺之间的差距。所提议的方法结合了欧盟统计局表格式国民账户详尽性方法的数据和基于非观察生产驱动因素理论假设的估算。我们估算了 2000-2020 年间 22 个欧洲国家的地下经济、非正规经济和非法经济。
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引用次数: 0
Labor market consequences of antitax avoidance policies 反避税政策对劳动力市场的影响
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09838-9
Katarzyna Bilicka

In this paper, I analyze the local labor market consequences of multinational firms reallocating employees across their affiliates in response to antitax avoidance policies. I leverage the introduction of a worldwide debt cap in 2010 in the United Kingdom as a quasi-natural experiment that limited one of the forms of profit shifting—debt shifting—for a group of multinational corporations (MNCs). Multinationals affected by the reform reallocated their employees from the United Kingdom to foreign locations. I show that this led to a reduction in employment in regions more exposed to the reform in the United Kingdom. In foreign countries, the initial reallocation of labor across firms resulted in a relatively larger expansion of the affected local labor markets. These results suggest that a reallocation of labor across firms generates asymmetries in how negative and positive firm-level shocks are amplified through regional markets.

在本文中,我分析了跨国公司为应对反避税政策而在其分支机构间重新分配员工对当地劳动力市场造成的影响。我将 2010 年英国引入的全球债务上限作为一个准自然实验,限制了跨国公司利润转移的一种形式--债务转移。受改革影响的跨国公司将其雇员从英国重新分配到国外。我的研究表明,这导致受英国改革影响较大的地区就业人数减少。而在国外,企业间最初的劳动力重新配置导致受影响的当地劳动力市场相对扩大。这些结果表明,企业间劳动力的重新配置在企业层面的负面和正面冲击通过区域市场放大的方式上产生了不对称性。
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引用次数: 0
Government consumption in the DINA framework: allocation methods and consequences for post-tax income inequality DINA 框架中的政府消费:分配方法和税后收入不平等的后果
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09832-1
Lukas Riedel, Holger Stichnoth

About half of government expenditure in the United States takes the form of government consumption (e.g., education, defense, infrastructure). In many studies of post-tax inequality based on the Dina framework (including the influential study by Piketty et al. (Q J Econ 133(2):553–609, 2018), government consumption is allocated either proportionally to post-tax disposable income or on a per-capita basis, and the level of inequality is fairly sensitive to this choice. This paper provides direct evidence on how public education spending (a substantial part of government consumption) is actually distributed. An allocation proportional to post-tax disposable income is clearly rejected, while a lump-sum allocation is found to provide a good approximation.

美国约有一半的政府支出采取政府消费的形式(如教育、国防、基础设施)。在许多基于迪纳框架的税后不平等研究中(包括皮凯蒂等人颇具影响力的研究(Q J Econ 133(2):553-609, 2018)),政府消费要么按税后可支配收入的比例分配,要么按人均分配,而不平等水平对这一选择相当敏感。本文提供了公共教育支出(政府消费的重要组成部分)实际分配情况的直接证据。与税后可支配收入成比例的分配显然是不可行的,而一次总付的分配方式则提供了一个很好的近似值。
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引用次数: 0
The determinants of political selection: a citizen-candidate model with valence signaling and incumbency advantage 政治选择的决定因素:带有价值信号和在职优势的公民-候选人模型
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09831-2
Susana Peralta, Tanguy van Ypersele

We expand the theory of politician quality in electoral democracies with citizen candidates by supposing that performance while in office sends a signal to the voters about the politician’s valence. Individuals live two periods and decide to become candidates when young, trading off against type-specific private wages. The valence signal increases the reelection chances of high valence incumbents (screening mechanism of reelection), and thus their expected gain from running for office (self-selection mechanism). Since self-selection improves the average quality of challengers, voters become more demanding when evaluating the incumbent’s performance. This complementarity between the self-selection and the screening mechanisms may lead to multiple equilibria. We show that more difficult and/or less variable political jobs increase the politicians’ quality. Conversely, societies with more wage inequality have lower quality polities. We also show that incumbency advantage blurs the screening mechanism by giving incumbents an upper-hand in electoral competition and may wipe out the positive effect of the screening mechanism on the quality of the polity.

我们拓展了有公民候选人的选举民主政体中政治家素质的理论,假设政治家在任期间的表现会向选民发出有关政治家价值的信号。个体生活两个时期,决定在年轻时成为候选人,与特定类型的私人工资进行权衡。价值信号增加了高价值现任者的连任机会(连任筛选机制),从而增加了他们竞选公职的预期收益(自我选择机制)。由于自我选择提高了挑战者的平均素质,选民在评价现任者的表现时就会变得更加苛刻。自我选择机制和筛选机制之间的这种互补性可能会导致多重均衡。我们的研究表明,难度更大和/或可变性更小的政治工作会提高政治家的素质。相反,工资不平等程度越高的社会,政体质量越低。我们还表明,现任者的优势会让现任者在选举竞争中占上风,从而模糊了筛选机制,并可能抹杀筛选机制对政体质量的积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Tax planning and investment responses to dividend taxation 股息税的税收筹划和投资对策
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09837-w
Aliisa Koivisto

This study explores empirically how business owners respond to dividend taxes in a range of different margins including tax planning and investment. Using administrative tax data on all privately held Finnish corporations, I find exceptionally clear dividend payment responses to tax rate discontinuities and changes. Studying the income composition of owners around tax changes reveals clear income shifting between wage and dividends with negligible effect on gross income received from the firm. Evidence on the asset composition of firms indicates that a notable part of the payment response is due to inter-temporal income-smoothing, while I observe no statistically significant real responses in output or investment. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that more experienced owners and owners with lower income have higher tax base elasticities.

本研究从实证角度探讨了企业主如何从税收筹划和投资等不同角度应对股息税。通过使用芬兰所有私有企业的税收管理数据,我发现企业主对税率间断和变化的股息支付反应异常明显。研究税率变动前后企业所有者的收入构成发现,工资和股息之间的收入转移非常明显,对企业总收入的影响微乎其微。有关企业资产构成的证据表明,支付反应的很大一部分是由跨期收入平滑引起的,而我观察到的产出或投资方面的实际反应在统计上并不显著。异质性分析表明,经验丰富的所有者和收入较低的所有者具有较高的税基弹性。
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引用次数: 0
Investing in the roots of your political ancestors 投资于政治先辈的根基
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09840-1
Pantelis Kammas, Maria Poulima, Vassilis Sarantides

We use regional data for Greece between 1975–1989 to demonstrate a disproportionate allocation of public investment funds to prefectures that exhibited stronger support for the incumbent party. Our main empirical evidence comes from an Instrumental Variables (IV) analysis that exploits the discontinuity in Greece's political landscape after a brief military junta (1967–1974) to link the parties established after 1974 with their ancestors from the same 'political family' during the pre-dictatorial era. In particular, we show that the electoral strength of political ancestors influences the allocation of public investment. Moreover, there is a strong association between the political support of ancestor and descendant parties, both of which influence the allocation of public investment in prefectures with many core supporters. We also present evidence indicating that the appointment of deputy ministers from loyal prefectures of the incumbent party plays a significant mediating role in the allocation of public investment to prefectures with a strong base of core supporters.

我们利用 1975-1989 年间希腊的地区数据来证明,公共投资资金被不成比例地分配给了对执政党支持较强的省份。我们的主要经验证据来自于工具变量分析(IV),该分析利用了希腊短暂军政府统治(1967-1974 年)后政治格局的不连续性,将 1974 年后成立的政党与其在前独裁统治时期来自同一 "政治家族 "的祖先联系起来。我们特别指出,政治祖先的选举实力会影响公共投资的分配。此外,祖先党派和后代党派的政治支持之间存在密切联系,两者都会影响拥有众多核心支持者的都道府县的公共投资分配。我们还提出证据表明,任命来自忠于执政党的都道府县的副部长,对核心支持者基础雄厚的都道府县的公共投资分配起着重要的中介作用。
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引用次数: 0
A critical analysis of economic substance rules of Mauritius: a comparative study with Cayman Islands 对毛里求斯经济实质规则的批判性分析:与开曼群岛的比较研究
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09843-y
Ambareen Beebeejaun, Nilakshi Bickharry

Various low-tax jurisdictions including Mauritius, have been often accused of usurping the just share of taxes of other countries. Given the adverse impact on the reputation of the ‘tax havens’, the country has implemented in 2019 the economic substance requirements to ensure a minimum substance for resident companies to be taxed in Mauritius. The aim of this research is to assess the efficiency and robustness of the economic substance rules of Mauritius in combatting harmful tax practices including base erosion and profit shifting. A doctrinal approach and a comparative analysis with the corresponding substance rules of Cayman Islands were adopted to achieve the research objective. The findings demonstrate that there is still room for improving the economic substance rules of Mauritius in terms of an enhanced interpretation of the rules, reporting requirements and imposition of the relevant sanctions.

包括毛里求斯在内的各种低税辖区经常被指责侵占其他国家的正当税收份额。鉴于对 "避税天堂 "声誉的不利影响,毛里求斯于 2019 年实施了经济实质要求,以确保居民公司在毛里求斯纳税的最低实质要求。本研究旨在评估毛里求斯经济实质规则在打击税基侵蚀和利润转移等有害税收行为方面的效率和稳健性。为实现研究目标,采用了理论方法,并与开曼群岛的相应实质规则进行了比较分析。研究结果表明,毛里求斯的经济实质规则在加强规则解释、报告要求和实施相关制裁方面仍有改进空间。
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引用次数: 0
Gendered taxes: the interaction of tax policy with gender equality 性别税:税收政策与性别平等的相互作用
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09829-w
Maria Coelho, Aieshwarya Davis, Alexander Klemm, Carolina Osorio-Buitron

This paper provides an overview of the relationship between tax policy and gender equality, covering labor, capital and wealth, as well as consumption taxes. It considers implicit and explicit gender biases and corrective taxation. On labor taxes, we discuss the well-established findings on female labor supply and present new empirical work on the impact of household taxation. We also analyze the impact of progressivity on pay gaps and labor supply. On capital and wealth taxation, we discuss the implications of lower effective capital income taxation on the personal income tax burden gap across genders. We show that countries with relatively low female shares of capital income and wealth also tend to tax property and inheritances particularly lightly. On consumption taxes, we cover taxes on feminine hygiene products and excise taxes, which we assess in relation to externalities and differences in consumption patterns across genders.

本文概述了税收政策与性别平等之间的关系,涉及劳动税、资本税、财富税以及消费税。它考虑了隐性和显性性别偏见以及纠正性税收。在劳动税方面,我们讨论了有关女性劳动力供给的公认结论,并介绍了有关家庭税收影响的新实证工作。我们还分析了累进性对薪酬差距和劳动力供给的影响。在资本和财富税方面,我们讨论了较低的有效资本收入税对两性个人所得税负担差距的影响。我们发现,女性在资本收入和财富中所占比例相对较低的国家也倾向于对财产和遗产征税较轻。在消费税方面,我们讨论了女性卫生用品税和消费税,并结合外部效应和不同性别消费模式的差异对其进行了评估。
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引用次数: 0
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International Tax and Public Finance
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