Growth and Change最新文献

Recent analyses have highlighted the fact that the creative economy promotes the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and consequently affects urban structure and dynamics. Previous work primarily provided descriptive analyses and case studies regarding the link between the creative economy and urban poverty. In this context, this paper advances the discussion by examining the effect of the creative economy, measured by the share of creative goods and services exports in GDP, on slum incidence from a macroeconomic perspective. Using a panel of 115 developing countries over the period 2002–2022 based on the Driscoll-Kraay technique, we support the hypothesis that the creative economy reduces slum incidence. In other words, the socioeconomic benefits of cultural and creative industries (CCIs) contribute to addressing urban planning challenges. These results remain less sensitive to decomposition by type of creative goods, changes in measures of the creative economy, and the additional control variables. Furthermore, these results remain robust when we use estimation techniques that control endogeneity, censoring, and asymmetry. In addition, mediation analysis shows that income inequality and foreign direct investment are the main channels through which the creative economy influences slum prevalence.

Income inequality remains a persistent socio-economic challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), posing a significant threat to inclusive growth and sustainable development. Although infrastructure development is widely promoted as a catalyst for economic progress, its impact on income distribution remains ambiguous and context-dependent. This study investigates both the direct and conditional effects of infrastructure on income inequality in SSA, with particular attention to how urbanization and trade openness may amplify or mitigate these impacts. Using a balanced panel of 44 SSA countries from 2005 to 2023, the analysis employs dynamic panel estimators (System GMM) alongside Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQREG) to capture distributional heterogeneity. The findings indicate that, on average, infrastructure expansion tends to widen income inequality; however, this effect is moderated by higher levels of trade openness and urbanization. Specifically, greater trade openness dampens the inequality-increasing effect of infrastructure and can occasionally reverse it, resulting in a slight reduction in inequality at higher openness levels. Likewise, accelerated urban population growth offsets the adverse distributional impact, with results indicating that an urban growth rate exceeding 6.5% neutralizes the inequality effect. The quantile regression results further confirm that the relationship between infrastructure and inequality is more pronounced at lower and median quantiles. These insights underscore the importance of integrated infrastructure planning, supportive trade policies, and inclusive urban governance to leverage infrastructure for more equitable development in SSA.

Land transfer plays a pivotal role in driving agricultural modernization and rural revitalization in China; however, its impact on rural collective action remains insufficiently examined. Using micro-level survey data from farm households in Guizhou Province, this study examines the relationship between land transfer and rural collective action, with a focus on the development of the rural collective economy. Employing the Probit model, we find that land transfer significantly enhances rural collective action, a result that remains robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting rigorous robustness checks. Mechanism analysis reveals that land transfer fosters collective action by strengthening village leadership and accumulating social capital. Furthermore, rural shareholding cooperation reform further enhances the positive effects of land transfer. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the benefits of land transfer are more pronounced in villages with smaller populations and higher levels of collective economic development.

This paper explores the complex interplay between regional economic growth, political discontent, and policy responsiveness within EU regions, focusing on increasing inequalities in the context of the EU's ongoing processes of deepening and widening integration. Drawing on panel data for the EU28 at the regional level (NUTS2) from 2010 to 2018, these interconnected dimensions are treated as endogenous within a Three-Stage Least Squares estimation framework, aiming to uncover both direct and indirect effects. Our findings reveal the existence of feedback loops that link regional economic trajectories, rising public discontent, and the responsiveness (or lack thereof) of EU Cohesion Policy and underscore the necessity of a holistic and systemic approach to policy design.

This paper analyzes the long-term economic impacts of workforce development initiatives designed to address skill mismatch in Nevada's labor market, driven by automation shock and rising demand for skilled labor. Two key programs—Career Technical Education and the Governor Guinn Millennium Scholarship—aim to improve educational attainment and job readiness, ensuring a stable supply of skilled workers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we simulate six policy scenarios reflecting varying levels of educational attainment and workforce upskilling. Results show these programs significantly boost high school and post-secondary graduation rates, increase Gross State Product (GSP), and modestly reduce income inequality. In the best-case scenario, cumulative household income rises by $9.1 billion, with an annual GSP increase of 0.164% over 30 years. All scenarios, however, experience short-term output contractions due to temporary labor supply reductions during upskilling periods. Reductions in occupational income disparities are modest, highlighting the need for broader program reach. The study underscores the importance of sustained investment in inclusive, scalable education and training programs, particularly for future workforce facing the automation challenges. Aligning workforce strategies with evolving labor demands is essential for strengthening Nevada's economic resilience and adaptability amid ongoing technological and industrial transformation.

Digital governance (DG), functioning as a critical driver in regional innovation ecosystems, effectively promotes spatial equity and innovation equilibrium. Based on a panel of Chinese cities from 2010 to 2023, we treat the Internet + Government Services policy as a quasi-natural experiment of DG and apply a difference-in-differences model to analyze the impact of the DG on the regional innovation gaps (RIG). Results indicate that DG significantly narrows RIG, particularly in cities with advanced digital infrastructure, non-shrinking population, large-scale cities and abundant human capital. The mechanism analysis demonstrates that DG narrows RIG by eliminating disparities in the innovation environment and facilitating the cross-regional flow of innovation factors. This convergence effect predominantly originates from reducing RIG between developed and less-developed regions. Additionally, DG exerts a more pronounced promotional effect on innovation development in central municipal districts, while its effect on county-level areas remains relatively limited, thereby exacerbating the RIG within cities. These findings offer substantial implications for formulating targeted DG strategies to foster spatially balanced regional innovation development.

The manufacturing industry (MI) in China has long been constrained by low-end lock-in. Digital infrastructure, as a solid foundation of the digital economy, has played an increasingly crucial role in economic growth as the digital transformation of global society accelerates. This raises an important question: Can the rapid development of digital infrastructure promote the upgrading of manufacturing enterprises (UME)? To investigate this, we selected manufacturing enterprises listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2004 to 2020 to empirically analyze the impact and mechanisms of digital infrastructure on UME. We find that digital infrastructure indeed significantly promotes enterprise upgrading. A heterogeneity analysis further reveals that this influence is more pronounced fro small-scale and low-tech manufacturing enterprises relative to large-scale or high-tech enterprises, and that it digital infrastructure contributes more to UME in underdeveloped rather than developed regions. Our mechanism analysis indicates that digital infrastructure supports UME by enhancing resource allocation efficiency and fostering technological innovation. These findings may have significant implications for developing countries, pointing toward a necessity for strengthening digital infrastructure and deepening its integration with the manufacturing sector. In particular, underdeveloped regions and small-scale, low-tech manufacturing enterprises should prioritize using digital infrastructure to advance the modernization of traditional manufacturing operations.

Africa's sustainable development is challenged by rapid urbanization and persistent food insecurity. It is critically important to understand how digital innovation can be used to shape the relationship between urbanization and food security. This study investigates the asymmetric impact of urbanization on food security in Africa, emphasizing the moderating role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT). Using a panel quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag with a Pooled Mean Group (PQARDL-PMG) approach on data from 41 African countries (1990–2023), we examine how urbanization and ICT jointly influence the four dimensions of food security across varying contexts. Results reveal that increases in urbanization positively affect food availability and accessibility, while declines in urbanization significantly weaken utilization and stability. ICT improves food security outcomes, but its interaction with urbanization reveals asymmetric effects. Rising urbanization combined with ICT shows negative effects on food availability at higher quantiles, while ICT mitigates the adverse impacts of urban decline by improving availability, accessibility, and stability. Policy implications call for reorienting urban strategies to prioritize food systems, including protecting peri-urban farmland and strengthening rural-urban linkages through digitally enabled infrastructure.

This paper analyzes the long-term rise of labor market detachment within the United States. We construct a measure of the detachment rate that identifies prime-age men and women who have been out of the labor force for more than a year. Detachment has risen for men in most local labor markets since 1980, and for women since around 2000, with more than a third of the prime-age population detached in some parts of the country. We show there has been a widening in the spatial distribution of detachment and a corresponding increase in its geographic concentration. Empirical results indicate that detachment rose more in places with weak local economies, particularly those that experienced a loss of routine production and administrative support jobs due to globalization and technological change, and that frictions in local labor market adjustment contributed to its uneven rise. Moreover, the rise in detachment has been concentrated among older prime-age individuals and those without a college degree, and, consistent with regional reinvention, occurred less in places with high human capital. These findings point to an important role for place-based economic development policy in distressed regions with persistently high detachment.