Journal of Financial Research最新文献

We establish a model in which speculators use feedback trading characteristics to infer the behavior of irrational investors and induce them to trade. We also discuss the stability and time series of asset prices. Our results show that: (1) speculators have speculation and arbitrage demands and make “noise” to induce irrational investors to trade, (2) the time series of asset prices show stable momentum and a reversal effect when fundamental traders dominate the market, and (3) momentums are unstable and perform poorly under extreme circumstances. Our article offers a unique approach to understanding the micro mechanism of different momentum effects in various markets and suggests a plausible theoretical framework to illustrate such differences.

We investigate the causal effect of increasing shareholder rights on employee satisfaction. To ensure causality, we use close shareholder votes on antitakeover provisions included in the Entrenchment Index (E-Index) as exogenous shocks to the corporate governance of a company. A 1-point increase in shareholder rights on the E-Index scale causes a 10% decrease in employee satisfaction. The channels that drive our results are decreases in employees' opinion about firm culture, in their view about the company's CEO, in the number of employees, and in capital expenditures.

We study the potential factors that determine the large and persistent price deviations in Chinese equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Our results suggest that ETF liquidity and arbitrage activity are positively correlated with ETF price efficiency, and the relation is more pronounced with higher institutional ownership. We also evaluate the effect of two exogenous shocks in the Chinese market. Using a policy change that added market makers to ETFs on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), we find that market makers improve price efficiency and that the impact is stronger for ETFs with lower liquidity. We also exploit a change in trading rules on the SZSE and show that the relaxation of arbitrage restrictions improves price efficiency. Altogether, these findings provide evidence that lack of liquidity, due to the unique market structure and regulations of the Chinese market, contributes to price inefficiency of Chinese ETFs.

We investigate the influence of gender diversity on the acquisition choices of bidding firms and find that firms with greater gender diversity are more likely to acquire nonlisted targets, use cash as the method of payment, and purchase firms in similar industries. Results show that these preferences are significantly influenced by female directors' financial expertise, target industry experience, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) experience, academic and professional qualifications, and networks. The percentage of female directors on boards is positively correlated with the market response to the announcement of acquisition choices preferred by female directors. Furthermore, bidders improve efficiency and accumulate long-term value gains through the contributions made by their female directors to these acquisition choices.

The determinants of banks' cost of equity are not well understood. We depart from prior work assuming rational expectations and instead explore the impact of Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity on bank stocks. We test a large set of asset pricing models and find that investors' lack of confidence in both the drift and correlation structure driving bank stock returns affects banks' cost of capital. We also investigate the economic relation among ambiguity, market liquidity, and banks' capital shortfall, which reveals the transmission channels through which ambiguity may increase the probability of a systemic crisis. Our findings have implications for macroprudential policy.

A CEO's pay–performance sensitivity (PPS) is higher in the first year of their tenure than in the following years. I explain this finding with reference to chief executive officer (CEO) prior uncertainty: Because of information asymmetry and/or uncertainty about the quality of the match between a CEO and a firm, first-year compensation is often arranged to depend largely on performance. Consistent with this explanation, CEOs with higher prior uncertainty exhibit higher first-year PPS. Also, PPS is higher for outsider CEOs than insider CEOs. Among outsider CEOs, first-year PPS is lower for former executives of large public firms. An insider CEO's service time in a firm before becoming the CEO reduces first-year PPS.

A rising trend is that analysts bundle earnings forecasts for multiple firms on the same day, and such forecast bundling is associated with low-quality forecasts. We explore target price bundling and recommendation bundling. Factors driving bundling revisions of an output for multiple firms vary across three outputs: forecasts, target prices, and recommendations. Target price (recommendation) revisions bundled for firms are less informative than stand-alone revisions. Although consistency in the direction of revisions between different outputs is typically associated with higher perceived quality, consistent revisions between outputs are not associated with higher informativeness of revisions bundled for multiple firms.

We build an active asset management model to study the interplay between the career concerns of a manager and prevailing market conditions. We show that fund managers overinvest in market-neutral strategies, as these have a reputational benefit. This benefit is smaller in bull markets, when investors expect more managers to use high-beta strategies, making their performance less informative about their ability than in bear markets. Consequently, fund flows that follow high-beta strategies are less responsive to the fund's performance, and flow-performance sensitivity is higher in bear markets than in bull markets.

We investigate the relation between observable managerial characteristics (i.e., gender, age, tenure, professional qualifications, and advanced education) and performance in diversified equity mutual funds domiciled in the eurozone. We find that differences in the fund alphas are statistically significant only in groups based on age, tenure, and professional qualifications (i.e., chartered financial analyst [CFA]). We also find a significant positive relation for age and CFA certification with a fund's risk-adjusted performance and a significant negative relation for tenure. However, we find no significant effect for gender and advanced education (i.e., master of business administration [MBA]). The differences in risk taking are significantly related only with age and tenure; the former has a negative and the latter a positive relation with risk taking.

We document that the Treasury market investor sentiment (TSENT) of institutional investors is a powerful predictor of bond risk premia. Specifically, TSENT positively predicts Treasury bond excess returns in and out of sample. The forecasting gains of TSENT are incremental to those in conventional bond return predictors: Fama–Bliss forward spreads, Cochrane–Piazzesi forward rate factor, and Ludvigson–Ng macro factor, as well as equity market sentiment proxies such as the investor sentiment index and the partial least squares sentiment index. Asset allocation analysis indicates the forecasting power of TSENT is economically valuable to investors. Finally, we show that the time-series bond risk premia predictability associated with TSENT relates to its predictive power for macroeconomic performance, such as payroll employment, unemployment rate, and industrial production.