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The Financial Crisis: The Cause and the Cure? 金融危机:原因与对策?
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1336345
A. Farhadieh
This discussion paper lays the foundation for formulating an effective policy to address the current financial crisis facing the United Kingdom. The paper calls for an aggressive and coordinated intervention by the Treasury and the Bank of England including (i) the creation of two Government Sponsored Entities, (a Consumer Bank with a mandate to provide loans directly to consumers and a SME Bank) and (ii) for the Bank of England to establish a taskforce to work with the troubled banks to write down the value of their illiquid and non-performing loans and that the Bank of England (as opposed to the Treasury) should directly inject capital into these troubled banks. The paper also calls for targeted tax cuts to allow the consumer to undertake an orderly deleveraging and for direct government investment to resuscitate the economy.
本讨论文件为制定有效的政策来解决英国目前面临的金融危机奠定了基础。该报告呼吁财政部和英格兰银行采取积极和协调的干预措施,包括(i)创建两个政府赞助实体;(授权直接向消费者和中小企业银行提供贷款的消费者银行)和(ii)英格兰银行建立一个特别工作组,与陷入困境的银行合作,减记其非流动性和不良贷款的价值,并且英格兰银行(而不是财政部)应直接向这些陷入困境的银行注入资金。该文件还呼吁有针对性的减税,让消费者能够有序地去杠杆化,并呼吁政府直接投资,以复苏经济。
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引用次数: 2
What Drives Euro Area Break-Even Inflation Rates? 是什么推动了欧元区的盈亏平衡通胀率?
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-01-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1316216
Matteo Ciccarelli, Juan A. Garcia
The yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (or break-even inflation rates, BEIR) is a fundamental indicator of inflation expectations (and associated premia). This paper investigates which macroeconomic and financial variables explain BEIRs. We evaluate a large number of potential explanatory variables through Bayesian model selection techniques and document their explanatory power at different horizons. At short horizons, actual inflation dynamics is the main determinant of BEIRs. At long horizons, financial variables (i.e. term spread, bond market volatility) become increasingly relevant, but confidence and cyclical indicators remain important. JEL Classification: C11, C52, E31
名义与通胀挂钩债券之间的收益率差(或盈亏平衡通胀率,BEIR)是通胀预期(及相关溢价)的基本指标。本文研究了哪些宏观经济变量和金融变量可以解释beir。我们通过贝叶斯模型选择技术评估了大量潜在的解释变量,并记录了它们在不同视界的解释力。从短期来看,实际通胀动态是beir的主要决定因素。从长远来看,金融变量(如期限价差、债券市场波动性)变得越来越重要,但信心和周期性指标仍然很重要。JEL分类:C11, C52, E31
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引用次数: 68
Rentabilidad y creación de valor de 136 empresas españolas en 2008 (Shareholder Value Creation of 136 Spanish Companies in 2008) 2008年136家西班牙公司的盈利能力和价值创造(2008年136家西班牙公司的股东价值创造)
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-01-09 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1325147
Pablo Fernández, Vicente J. Bermejo
Spanish Abstract: En 2008, la rentabilidad de la bolsa espanola fue -40%, solo hubo 3 empresas (entre 136) con rentabilidad positiva y 61 empresas tuvieron una rentabilidad inferior a -50%. Las 136 empresas destruyeron valor para sus accionistas por importe de €420 millardos. Ha sido un ano con gran volatilidad (y, por tanto, con grandes oportunidades de inversion): el cociente entre la cotizacion maxima y la cotizacion minima ha sido superior a 2,5 en 57 empresas y superior a 2 en 92 empresas.Tambien se muestra que el descenso de 2008 fue menor que los de 2002, 1947 y 1980; y similar a los de 1958 y 1992.Considerando conjuntamente 2007 y 2008, 9 empresas tuvieron rentabilidad positiva.English Abstract: 133 companies out of 136 had negative return in 2008. The 136 companies destroyed 420 billion euros (17 billion euros in 2007). The average return of the 136 companies was -40%.
西班牙文摘:2008年,西班牙证券交易所的盈利能力为-40%,136家公司中只有3家盈利能力为正,61家公司盈利能力低于-50%。这136家公司损失了4200亿欧元的股东价值。这是波动性很大的一年(因此有很大的投资机会):57家公司的最高报价与最低报价之比超过2.5,92家公司的最高报价与最低报价之比超过2。研究还显示,2008年的下降幅度小于2002年、1947年和1980年;与1958年和1992年类似。在2007年和2008年,有9家公司的盈利能力为正。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查,该县的总面积为,其中土地和(1.0%)水。136家公司损失了4200亿欧元(2007年为170亿欧元)。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查局的数据,该县总面积为,其中土地和(1.0%)水。
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引用次数: 2
Corporate Investment, Cash Flow Level and Market Imperfections 企业投资、现金流水平与市场不完善
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-01-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.968149
G. Mundaca
We analyze firms’ investment behavior, differentiating firms according to the cash flow levels they experience during their lifecycles. We consequently consider the firm as the basic unit and not firm-year observations. Firms with persistent positive cash flow show higher investment-cash flow sensitivity than firms with persistent negative cash flow. Independent of the industry they belong to, older firms with positive cash flow show a weaker sensitivity than younger firms with positive cash flow. Firms with persistent negative cash flow are neither younger nor smaller than their counterparts, and their cash flow coefficient can be positive, negative or statistically insignificant. Thus, classifying firms by age or size may not yield a group of firms with similar financial structures.
我们分析了公司的投资行为,根据公司在其生命周期中所经历的现金流水平来区分公司。因此,我们将公司视为基本单位,而不是公司年度观察结果。持续现金流为正的企业比持续现金流为负的企业表现出更高的投资-现金流敏感性。独立于他们所属的行业,具有正现金流的老公司比具有正现金流的年轻公司表现出更弱的敏感性。持续负现金流量的企业既不年轻也不小,其现金流量系数可以为正、负或统计上不显著。因此,按年龄或规模对公司进行分类可能不会产生一组财务结构相似的公司。
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引用次数: 4
Liquidity and Price Discovery in the European C02 Futures Market: An Intraday Analysis 欧洲二氧化碳期货市场的流动性和价格发现:日内分析
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1220389
E. Benz, J. Hengelbrock
European Union CO2 allowances (EUAs) are traded on several markets with increasing intensity. We provide an intraday data analysis of the EUA futures market for the complete first trading period 2005-2007. To investigate the trading process in this young market, we compare the two main trading platforms ECX and Nord Pool with respect to liquidity and price discovery. Both are of high relevance to traders. We analyze liquidity by estimating traded bid-ask spreads following the approach of Madhavan et al. (1997) and study price discovery using the VECM framework of Engle and Granger (1987). We find that while estimated transaction costs are always lower on the larger exchange ECX, the less liquid platform Nord Pool also contributes to price discovery, especially during the first months of trading. Overall, results indicate that from 2005 to 2007 liquidity in the European CO2 futures market has markedly increased and organized trading has rapidly expanded.
欧盟二氧化碳配额(eua)在多个市场上交易,交易强度越来越大。我们提供了一个完整的2005-2007年首个交易期的EUA期货市场的日内数据分析。为了调查这个年轻市场的交易过程,我们比较了两个主要交易平台ECX和Nord Pool在流动性和价格发现方面的差异。两者都与交易员高度相关。我们根据Madhavan等人(1997)的方法,通过估计交易的买卖价差来分析流动性,并使用Engle和Granger(1987)的VECM框架研究价格发现。我们发现,虽然大型交易所ECX的估计交易成本总是较低,但流动性较差的平台Nord Pool也有助于价格发现,特别是在交易的头几个月。总体而言,结果表明,从2005年到2007年,欧洲二氧化碳期货市场的流动性显著增加,有组织的交易迅速扩大。
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引用次数: 1
Private Credit Development and Economic Growth In Transition Economies 转型经济中的私人信贷发展与经济增长
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1465595
D. Bakardzhieva, B. Kamar
This research compares the links between the economic growth and the development of banking credit for the private sector in three transition economies. The empirical results confirm the choice of a case-by-case analytical and time series econometrical approach. Each country has its own specificities which justify the established long-run positive two-way link between the real and financial sector in Poland, the positive link going from the real sector towards the private credit development in the case of Hungary, and the negative two-way link between the two sectors in the case of the Czech Republic. We explain those particularities by the different methods of banking sector privatization, the different approaches for solving the bad credit problems, and the different attitudes towards banking FDI. The comparison between the experiences of these three countries underlines the importance of adequately supporting and regulating the emerging banking sectors in lower-income transition economies when designing growth-promoting economic policies on the road to EU accession.
本研究比较了三个转型经济体的经济增长与私营部门银行信贷发展之间的联系。实证结果证实了个案分析和时间序列计量方法的选择。每个国家都有自己的特点,这证明波兰实体和金融部门之间建立了长期的积极双向联系,匈牙利从实体部门到私人信贷发展的积极联系,以及捷克共和国两个部门之间的消极双向联系。我们通过银行业私有化的不同方法、解决不良信贷问题的不同方法以及对银行业FDI的不同态度来解释这些特殊性。这三个国家经验的比较强调了在加入欧盟的道路上设计促进增长的经济政策时,充分支持和规范低收入转型经济体新兴银行业的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Sovereignty Versus Soundness: Cross-Border/Interstate Banking in the European Union and in the United States: Similarities, Differences and Policy Issues 主权与稳健:欧盟和美国的跨境/州际银行:相似性、差异和政策问题
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2008.00121.x
G. Garcia
Banks are finally crossing borders within the European Union (EU) and the United States. Some EU member countries and some U.S. states have welcomed entry by banks from elsewhere, while others have resisted it. The article compares the processes of banking deregulation in the two unions and provides some measures of the ensuing progressnot yet completetoward cross-border banking. The analysis focuses on resistance to entry, the reasons for it, and the methods used to put it into effect. Apportioning responsibilities for chartering, prudential supervision and other facets of the financial safety net between the EU and its member countries give rise to active conflicts over sovereignty and compromises over efficiency. Similar conflicts raise questions over the continued viability of the dual banking system in the United States.
银行终于跨越了欧盟(EU)和美国的边界。一些欧盟成员国和美国的一些州欢迎其他地区的银行进入,而另一些国家则持反对态度。本文比较了两个联盟的银行放松管制的过程,并提出了一些尚未完成的跨境银行的后续进展措施。分析的重点是进场阻力,进场阻力的原因,以及进场阻力实施的方法。在欧盟及其成员国之间分配特许经营、审慎监管和金融安全网其他方面的责任,会引发围绕主权的积极冲突,并在效率方面做出妥协。类似的冲突引发了人们对美国双重银行体系能否继续生存的质疑。
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引用次数: 6
Are UK Share Prices Too High? Fundamental Value or New Era 英国股价是否过高?基本价值或新时代
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2008.00290.x
D. McMillan
Since the mid-1990s the dividend yield reached and largely remained at a historically low level, even accounting for the stock market correction in the early 2000s. This appears to suggest that prices are overvalued. However, alternative valuation models based upon comparing bond and equity yields suggest that, if anything, prices are undervalued. This paper seeks to provide answers to this seeming paradox. Preliminary results suggest non-stationarity of the dividend yield and bond yieldequity yield differential, although the yield ratio is possibly stationary, casting doubt on mean reversion. Evidence from structural breakpoint testing suggests that all measures have been subjected to several mean level shifts throughout the sample period, and notably within the last decade, such that each series now fluctuates around a mean level lower than that experienced previously. Thus, the lower dividend yield and lower bondequity ratio do not necessarily imply equity mispricing but that concepts of pre-existing normal levels no longer apply. In explaining why higher equity prices are supported, we note that the last decade has seen a period of historically low and stable inflation and interest rates. Further, there is a strong positive relationship between inflation and the dividend yield. This more stable economic environment has led to more accurate valuation of stocks and lower required rates of return, thus supporting higher prices.
自20世纪90年代中期以来,股息收益率达到并基本保持在历史最低水平,即使考虑到21世纪初股市的调整。这似乎表明价格被高估了。然而,基于比较债券和股票收益率的另一种估值模型表明,如果有的话,价格被低估了。本文试图为这一看似矛盾的现象提供答案。初步结果表明,股息收益率和债券收益率差异的非平稳性,尽管收益率比率可能是平稳的,对均值回归产生怀疑。来自结构断点检验的证据表明,在整个样本期间,特别是在过去十年中,所有措施都经历了几次平均水平变化,因此,每个系列现在都在比以前经历的平均水平更低的水平上下波动。因此,较低的股息收益率和较低的债券比率并不一定意味着股票定价错误,但预先存在的正常水平的概念不再适用。在解释股价上涨受到支撑的原因时,我们注意到,过去10年的通胀和利率处于历史低位且保持稳定。此外,通胀与股息收益率之间存在很强的正相关关系。这种更稳定的经济环境导致股票估值更准确,要求的回报率更低,从而支撑了更高的价格。
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引用次数: 9
Investment Performance of Residual Income Valuation Models on the German Stock Market 剩余收益评估模型在德国股票市场的投资绩效
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2008-12-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.741884
Goesta Jamin
This paper analyses value-investing strategies based on the residual income valuation approach which has become popular due to the work of Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995) for the German stock market. Plenty of empirical evidence shows that it is possible to earn positive abnormal returns by investing in on the basis of simple fundamental ratios such as PE ratio, PB ratio, or dividend yield undervalued stocks. A price-value (PV) ratio calculated with the residual income approach is theoretically better founded than the simple ratios mentioned above as it captures all value-generating aspects. Four model specifications are developed and their performance when using them for value-investing strategies is compared to the performance of the simple ratios for German companies over a period of 1990 - 2002. It turns out that fundamentally undervalued companies indeed earn higher returns but the results are statistically weak and the theoretically superior models do not perform significantly better than the simple ratios.
本文分析了基于剩余收益估值方法的价值投资策略,该方法由于Ohlson(1995)和Feltham and Ohlson(1995)对德国股票市场的研究而流行起来。大量的实证证据表明,根据简单的基本面比率,如本益比、市净率或股息收益率低估的股票进行投资,有可能获得正的异常回报。从理论上讲,用剩余收益法计算的价格价值比上面提到的简单比率更有根据,因为它涵盖了所有产生价值的方面。开发了四种模型规范,并将其用于价值投资策略时的表现与1990 - 2002年期间德国公司的简单比率的表现进行了比较。事实证明,从根本上被低估的公司确实获得了更高的回报,但结果在统计上很弱,理论上较优的模型的表现并不明显好于简单的比率。
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引用次数: 4
Managerial Incentives and Corporate Leverage: Evidence from the United Kingdom 管理激励与公司杠杆:来自英国的证据
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2008-12-18 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-629X.2009.00296.x
Chris Florackis, Aydin Ozkan
This paper investigates the effect of managerial incentives and corporate governance on capital structure using a large sample of UK firms during the period 1999–2004. The analysis revolves around the view that managerial incentives are important in determining a firm's leverage. However, we argue that the exact impact of these incentives on leverage is likely to be determined by firm-specific governance characteristics. To conduct our investigation, we construct a simple corporate governance measure using detailed ownership and governance information. We present evidence of a significant non-monotonic relationship between executive ownership and leverage. There is also strong evidence suggesting that corporate governance practices have a significant impact on leverage. More importantly, the results reveal that the nature of the relation between executive ownership and leverage depends on the firm's corporate governance structure.
本文以1999-2004年英国公司为样本,研究了管理层激励和公司治理对资本结构的影响。分析围绕着这样一种观点,即管理激励在决定公司杠杆率方面很重要。然而,我们认为这些激励对杠杆的确切影响可能取决于公司特定的治理特征。为了进行调查,我们使用详细的所有权和治理信息构建了一个简单的公司治理度量。我们提出的证据显着非单调关系之间的高管所有权和杠杆。也有强有力的证据表明,公司治理实践对杠杆有显著影响。更重要的是,研究结果揭示了高管持股与杠杆关系的本质取决于公司的公司治理结构。
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引用次数: 77
期刊
European Journal of Finance
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