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The effect of maximum residue limit standards on China's agri‐food exports: A health perspective 最大残留限量标准对中国农业食品出口的影响:健康视角
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12752
Bo Chen, Yiming Chen, Siqi Zhang
This paper investigates the impact of maximum residue limit (MRL) standards of 2692 chemical substances regulated by 44 importing countries on China's agri‐food exports, disaggregated at HS 8‐digit product level over 2005–2021. We find that MRL standards for health‐threatening chemical substances facilitate China's exports of agri‐food products, while low‐hazard MRLs impede trade. Furthermore, stricter MRL standards for health‐threatening substances reduce the probability of exporting (extensive margin) while generating larger export values conditional on exporting (intensive margin). We also identify that the adjustments of fixed and variable compliance costs resulting from changes in health‐threatening and low‐hazard MRLs contribute to the heterogeneous responses on the extensive and intensive margins of exports.
本文研究了 2005-2021 年间由 44 个进口国监管的 2692 种化学物质的最大残留限量(MRL)标准对中国农业食品出口的影响。我们发现,威胁健康的化学物质最高残留限量标准促进了中国农业食品的出口,而低危害的最高残留限量标准则阻碍了贸易。此外,更严格的有害健康物质最大残留限量标准会降低出口概率(广义边际),同时在出口条件下产生更大的出口值(密集边际)。我们还发现,威胁健康和低危害最高残留限量的变化导致的固定和可变合规成本的调整,是出口的广阔边际和密集边际出现异质性反应的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Trade wars and trade disputes: The role of equity and political support 贸易战和贸易争端:公平和政治支持的作用
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12742
Eddy Bekkers, Joseph F. Francois, Douglas R. Nelson, Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa
Recent theoretical and quantitative analysis of trade wars is grounded in a relatively narrow treatment of optimal tariff theory and noncooperative Nash equilibria. The lynchpin of this approach is the assumption that trade policy makers are rational and have a simple well‐established objective function to optimize. We argue that the preferred specification of this objective function ignores inequality at its peril. We work with a quantitative trade model, introducing a comprehensive tariff‐space grid search new to the literature. This allows us to explicitly check for the presence of multiple Nash outcomes. We show that including income inequality—a primary focus of the earlier literature—as a determinant of social welfare can substantially change noncooperative Nash outcomes. We also show that the optimal tariff of the US falls by half when the social welfare function includes inequality as an objective. Hence, the economic outcomes of actual trade wars may be very different from what recent estimates grounded in optimal tariff theory would suggest.
最近对贸易战的理论和定量分析是建立在对最优关税理论和非合作纳什均衡的相对狭隘的处理之上的。这种方法的关键在于假定贸易政策制定者是理性的,并且有一个简单的既定目标函数需要优化。我们认为,这种目标函数的首选规范忽视了不平等,这是非常危险的。我们使用一个定量贸易模型,在文献中引入了一种新的综合关税空间网格搜索。这使我们能够明确检查多重纳什结果的存在。我们表明,将收入不平等--早期文献的主要关注点--作为社会福利的决定因素,会大大改变非合作的纳什结果。我们还表明,当社会福利函数将不平等作为目标时,美国的最优关税会下降一半。因此,实际贸易战的经济结果可能与近期基于最优关税理论的估计结果大相径庭。
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引用次数: 0
Subsidized wages, small businesses, and exports: Evidence from the paycheck protection program 补贴工资、小企业和出口:来自工资保护计划的证据
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12748
Ali Enami, Sucharita Ghosh
The easily forgivable federal loans offered through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to offset the impact of the COVID‐19 recession provide a unique opportunity to investigate whether subsidizing the costs of labor for small firms can increase exports in the whole industry. The main eligibility rule to receive these loans, i.e., having less than 500 employees in 2019 and the size of loans, were dependent on the size of the firm prior to the COVID‐19 pandemic. This implies a plausibly exogenous variation in the size of the PPP loans across states and industries. We exploit this exogenous variation in the size of PPP loans and estimate a difference‐in‐differences model that allows for heterogenous treatment effect to measure the instantaneous and dynamic effects of these loans. We find that a 10% increase in the size of PPP loans in 2020 and 2021 leads to 0.27% and 0.37% increase in exports in a given state‐industry. The 2020 loans appear to have no lasting effect beyond the quarter they are awarded. The 2021 loans, however, displayed a more dynamic effect and a 10% increase in the size of these loans in one quarter would lead to 0.28% increase in the value of exports three quarters later. In addition to estimating the average effect of these loans, we show that the effects of the loans are significantly heterogeneous across industries and the per‐dollar effect of these loans decreases as the loan size (per employee) increases.
为抵消 COVID-19 经济衰退的影响,通过 "工资保护计划"(PPP)提供了可轻松免除的联邦贷款,这为研究补贴小企业劳动力成本是否能增加整个行业的出口提供了一个独特的机会。获得这些贷款的主要资格规则,即 2019 年员工人数少于 500 人和贷款规模,取决于 COVID-19 大流行之前的企业规模。这意味着各州和各行业的购买力平价贷款规模可能存在外生差异。我们利用 PPP 贷款规模的这种外生性差异,估计了一个允许异质性处理效应的差分模型,以衡量这些贷款的即时和动态效应。我们发现,2020 年和 2021 年购买力平价贷款规模每增加 10%,就会导致特定国家-行业的出口分别增加 0.27% 和 0.37%。2020 年的贷款在发放季度之后似乎没有持续影响。而 2021 年的贷款则显示出更大的动态效应,贷款规模在一个季度内增加 10%,将导致三个季度后出口额增加 0.28%。除了估算这些贷款的平均效应外,我们还表明,这些贷款的效应在不同行业之间具有显著的异质性,而且这些贷款的每美元效应会随着贷款规模(每名雇员)的增加而降低。
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引用次数: 0
Trade and labor market segregation in Colombia 哥伦比亚的贸易与劳动力市场隔离
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12744
Josh Ederington, Jenny Minier, Kenneth R. Troske
Gary Becker's theory of discrimination argues that increasing competition will reduce discrimination by reallocating market share to less discriminatory firms. We develop a simple model in which increased competition can also affect discrimination by affecting firm‐level hiring decisions. We use the 1984–1991 Colombian trade liberalization episode and plant‐level data to investigate this claim. We find that plants in industries that faced the greatest reductions in tariff protection increased the female share of their workforce more than plants in industries that saw little or no reduction in tariffs. In addition, we find that exporting plants tended to employ a higher share of female workers than non‐exporters did. In contrast, we find little evidence that trade liberalization drove discriminating plants from the market.
加里-贝克尔的歧视理论认为,竞争的加剧会将市场份额重新分配给歧视程度较低的企业,从而减少歧视。我们建立了一个简单的模型,在这个模型中,竞争的加剧也会通过影响企业层面的雇佣决策来影响歧视。我们利用 1984-1991 年哥伦比亚贸易自由化事件和工厂层面的数据来研究这一观点。我们发现,与关税几乎没有降低的行业的工厂相比,关税保护削减幅度最大的行业的工厂增加了女性劳动力的比例。此外,我们还发现出口工厂雇用的女工比例往往高于非出口工厂。相比之下,我们几乎没有发现贸易自由化将歧视性工厂赶出市场的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Governing personal data and trade in digital services 管理个人数据和数字服务贸易
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12735
Martina F. Ferracane, Erik van der Marel
The regulation of personal data varies widely between countries, with potential effects on digital services. We develop a taxonomy for the regulation of cross‐border personal data transfers and systematically categorize 143 countries in one of the three data models identified, which are an open data model, a conditional model, and a control model. Using a gravity model, we then study if sharing a similar regulatory model between trading partners is associated with trade in digital services. Moreover, we assess if enacting a comprehensive data protection law impacts the relationship between data models and digital services. The open model of data transfers appears to support data flows, regardless of the the presence of a domestic regime for personal data. We find a negative effect on digital services for the conditional model that prescribes conditions that need to be fulfilled to transfer personal data across borders. Interestingly, we find that this negative effect is more than offset by the presence of a comprehensive data protection law. Finally, the control model, which has strict conditions to transfer personal data outside the country, only has a negative and significant effect when a domestic regime for data protection is implemented. The latter is likely to reflect the cost burden of firms to comply with these regulations as the trust channel might not be effective in countries characterized by government surveillance.
各国对个人数据的监管大相径庭,可能会对数字服务产生影响。我们为跨境个人数据传输的监管制定了一个分类标准,并将 143 个国家系统地归入所确定的三种数据模型之一,即开放数据模型、条件模型和控制模型。然后,我们利用引力模型,研究贸易伙伴之间共享类似的监管模式是否与数字服务贸易相关。此外,我们还评估了颁布全面的数据保护法是否会影响数据模式与数字服务之间的关系。无论是否存在国内个人数据制度,数据传输的开放模式似乎都支持数据流动。我们发现,有条件模式对数字服务有负面影响,这种模式规定了跨境传输个人数据必须满足的条件。有趣的是,我们发现这种负面影响被全面数据保护法的存在所抵消。最后,控制模型对向境外传输个人数据规定了严格的条件,只有在国内实施数据保护制度时才会产生显著的负面影响。后者可能反映了企业遵守这些法规的成本负担,因为在政府监控的国家,信任渠道可能并不有效。
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引用次数: 0
Service liberalization and productivity in high‐tech firms: Evidence from China 服务自由化与高科技企业的生产力:来自中国的证据
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12745
Xuchao Li, Jing Zhao, Ruomeng Yang
This article studies the relationship between service liberalization and the productivity of high‐tech manufacturing. Examining the sudden relaxation of FDI regulation in several service sectors in China, this article finds that service liberalization improves high‐tech firms' TFP. The effect is greater in non‐SOEs, firms with a higher degree of service dependence, and firms located in regions with better institutional environments. Furthermore, after service liberalization, high‐tech firms of all sizes have more outsourcing service expenditures and spend less on intermediate inputs. Only large‐sized high‐tech firms increase their R&D expenditures to improve production efficiency.
本文研究了服务业自由化与高科技制造业生产率之间的关系。通过考察中国几个服务行业突然放松的外国直接投资管制,本文发现服务业自由化提高了高科技企业的全要素生产率。这种效应在非国有企业、服务依赖程度较高的企业以及位于制度环境较好地区的企业中更为明显。此外,在服务自由化之后,各种规模的高科技企业都增加了外包服务支出,减少了中间投入。只有大型高科技企业增加了研发支出,以提高生产效率。
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引用次数: 0
ε$$ varepsilon $$‐ces preferences and trade ε$$ varepsilon $$-ces 偏好与贸易
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12749
Kristian Behrens, Sergei Kichko, Philip Ushchev
Kimball preferences possess properties that make them a powerful tool for multi‐sector applied general equilibrium. While they are homothetic, they also can be made arbitrarily close to constant elasticity of substitution (ces) preferences, thereby sharing some of their properties ‘by continuity’. We develop a trade model which brings together traded and nontraded sectors, variable markups, and costly trade for this rich class of homothetic preferences. We characterize the consequences—for both sectors—of trade liberalization in traded sector. Numerical simulations for a calibrated version of the model reveal that the elasticity of utility with respect to trade costs is about 25%–27%, depending on whether traded and nontrade goods are complements or substitutes.
金博尔偏好的特性使其成为多部门应用一般均衡的有力工具。虽然它们是同向的,但它们也可以任意地接近恒定替代弹性(ces)偏好,从而 "通过连续性 "分享它们的某些特性。我们建立了一个贸易模型,将贸易部门和非贸易部门、可变加价和代价高昂的贸易结合在一起,用于研究这一类丰富的同调偏好。我们描述了贸易自由化对贸易部门和非贸易部门的影响。对该模型的校准版本进行的数字模拟显示,效用与贸易成本的弹性约为 25%-27%,这取决于贸易产品和非贸易产品是互补品还是替代品。
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引用次数: 0
Spillover effects of government subsidies on outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from China 政府补贴对对外直接投资的溢出效应:来自中国的证据
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12747
Siqi Li, Mengdi Sun
We examine the effect of government subsidies on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) by Chinese listed firms. Based on a panel dataset covering Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2021, our findings indicate that government subsidies can promote OFDI by enhancing the production efficiency, innovation capability, and social performance of Chinese listed firms. Furthermore, the heterogeneous analyses show that non‐tax‐based subsidies significantly promote OFDI by Chinese listed firms, and government subsidies do not result in a discernible preference for greenfield investments or mergers and acquisitions. In addition, government subsidies can significantly contribute to promoting OFDI for non‐SOEs, older firms, firms in globally emerging sectors and domestically catching‐up sectors, as well as firms located in eastern China.
我们研究了政府补贴对中国上市公司对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响。基于 2009 年至 2021 年中国上市公司的面板数据集,我们的研究结果表明,政府补贴可以通过提高中国上市公司的生产效率、创新能力和社会绩效来促进对外直接投资。此外,异质性分析表明,非税收性补贴显著促进了中国上市公司的对外直接投资,而政府补贴并未导致对绿地投资或并购的明显偏好。此外,对于非国有企业、老企业、全球新兴行业和国内追赶型行业的企业以及位于中国东部的企业而言,政府补贴能极大地促进对外直接投资。
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引用次数: 0
Double whammy? Trade and automation in engineering services 双重打击?工程服务中的贸易和自动化
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12743
Franziska Klügl, Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås
This paper studies the role of trade for the joint uptake of AI-enabled automation in manufacturing and engineering. It develops an agent-based model (ABM) where the agents are heterogeneous manufacturers and engineering firms. The ABM features two technology-related business models: engineering as a face-to-face consultancy service and engineering as automated software. The software adoption rate follows an S-shaped curve for manufacturers and a boom and bust cycle for engineers. In the early phase, shortage of engineers constrains AI uptake, while engineers become abundant when AI is fully adopted. Trade affects the cut-off productivity level at which manufacturers switch technology, the shape of the adoption rate curve, and the incentives for engineers to develop software. Bulky transactions and different productivity distributions across countries are drivers of trade in their own right.
本文研究了贸易对制造业和工程业共同采用人工智能自动化的作用。它建立了一个基于代理的模型(ABM),其中的代理是异质制造商和工程公司。该模型有两种与技术相关的商业模式:工程是一种面对面的咨询服务,工程是一种自动化软件。制造商的软件采用率呈 S 型曲线,而工程师的软件采用率则呈繁荣与萧条循环。在早期阶段,工程师的短缺制约了人工智能的采用,而当人工智能被全面采用时,工程师就会变得非常充裕。贸易会影响制造商转换技术的生产率临界水平、采用率曲线的形状以及工程师开发软件的积极性。大宗交易和各国不同的生产力分布本身就是贸易的驱动力。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of China on commodity exporters 中国对商品出口国的影响
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12738
Arpita Chatterjee, Richa Saraf
We compare the effect of a domestic shock in China and the US on the real economy and financial markets of various commodity‐exporting countries. To obtain a reliable indicator for China's macroeconomic conditions, we estimate a Bayesian dynamic factor model using block‐exclusion restrictions to identify a China factor and a US factor from monthly macroeconomic data for China and the US. We, then, assess the implications of a negative shock to both factors on the macroeconomy of a commodity‐exporting nation using Bayesian FAVARs based on recursive identification. A negative China shock leads to output loss and a fall in stock prices in these countries. China shock affects the output of only a subset of countries in our sample compared to the US shock, which affects all countries. China shock has a larger, quicker and more persistent impact on the stock markets of commodity‐exporting countries compared to the US shock. Countries with weaker institutional or business environments experience a larger negative real effect of the China shock, whereas countries with less stable financial systems demonstrate stronger financial effects. Using historical decomposition, we establish a growing role of the China factor over time, in particular for large emerging economies such as Brazil and Russia.
我们比较了中国和美国国内冲击对不同商品出口国实体经济和金融市场的影响。为了获得反映中国宏观经济状况的可靠指标,我们利用块排斥限制估计了一个贝叶斯动态因子模型,从中国和美国的月度宏观经济数据中识别出一个中国因子和一个美国因子。然后,我们利用基于递归识别的贝叶斯 FAVAR,评估这两个因素的负面冲击对商品出口国宏观经济的影响。中国的负面冲击导致这些国家的产出损失和股票价格下跌。与影响所有国家的美国冲击相比,中国冲击只影响样本中一部分国家的产出。与美国冲击相比,中国冲击对商品出口国股市的影响更大、更快、更持久。制度或商业环境较弱的国家受到的中国冲击的实际负面影响更大,而金融体系不太稳定的国家受到的金融影响更大。通过历史分解,我们发现随着时间的推移,中国因素的作用越来越大,尤其是对巴西和俄罗斯等大型新兴经济体而言。
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引用次数: 0
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Review of International Economics
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