Sumit Joshi, Ahmed Saber Mahmud, Abhinaba Nandy, Sudipta Sarangi
We model three factors that affect effectiveness of trade sanctions: a country's endowment, distance between countries, and network connectivity. Our model explains several empirical observations: (i) sanctions impose costs on both sender and target; (ii) sanctions are often unsuccessful; and (iii) import sanctions, and export plus import sanctions, are more effective than export sanctions alone. We also offer extensions of our benchmark including retaliation by target, incentives of the third country to participate in multilateral sanctions or sanction-busting, and the consequences of different centralities of sender and target in a trade network.
{"title":"Sanctions in directed trade networks","authors":"Sumit Joshi, Ahmed Saber Mahmud, Abhinaba Nandy, Sudipta Sarangi","doi":"10.1111/roie.12699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12699","url":null,"abstract":"We model three factors that affect effectiveness of trade sanctions: a country's endowment, distance between countries, and network connectivity. Our model explains several empirical observations: (i) sanctions impose costs on both sender and target; (ii) sanctions are often unsuccessful; and (iii) import sanctions, and export plus import sanctions, are more effective than export sanctions alone. We also offer extensions of our benchmark including retaliation by target, incentives of the third country to participate in multilateral sanctions or sanction-busting, and the consequences of different centralities of sender and target in a trade network.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138528925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How did China's zero Covid policy affect its exports?","authors":"Heiwai Tang, Xiuxiu Zheng","doi":"10.1111/roie.12696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12696","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48838348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exporters' environmental premium in a developing country: Firm‐level evidence from China","authors":"Gaoju Yang, Yuexing Xie, Xianhai Huang, Hangyu Chen","doi":"10.1111/roie.12697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12697","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42462381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Under extraterritorial sanctions the sanctioning country extends its policies to trade of third countries with the sanctioned country. An example is President Trump's decision in 2018 to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multilateral agreement with Iran. In this article, I develop a game‐theoretic model to explain the emergence of extraterritorial sanctions. Such trade sanctions (i) do not arise when the harmful activity of the sanctioned country (“build a nuclear bomb”) is verifiable even if monetary transfers are ruled out, but (ii) emerge if a second activity (“sponsor international terrorism”) is not verifiable, and the sanctioning countries differ in their gains from trade with the sanctioned country, their harm from the non‐verifiable activity, and their cost from abandoning the international economic order. In the context of the US–Iran–EU conflict, I argue that the oil and gas fracking boom in the US together with former President Trump's ignorance of his international reputation are key factors in the emergence of extraterritorial trade sanctions.
{"title":"Extraterritorial trade sanctions: Theory and application to the US–Iran–EU conflict","authors":"Eckhard Janeba","doi":"10.1111/roie.12682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12682","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Under extraterritorial sanctions the sanctioning country extends its policies to trade of third countries with the sanctioned country. An example is President Trump's decision in 2018 to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multilateral agreement with Iran. In this article, I develop a game‐theoretic model to explain the emergence of extraterritorial sanctions. Such trade sanctions (i) do not arise when the harmful activity of the sanctioned country (“build a nuclear bomb”) is verifiable even if monetary transfers are ruled out, but (ii) emerge if a second activity (“sponsor international terrorism”) is not verifiable, and the sanctioning countries differ in their gains from trade with the sanctioned country, their harm from the non‐verifiable activity, and their cost from abandoning the international economic order. In the context of the US–Iran–EU conflict, I argue that the oil and gas fracking boom in the US together with former President Trump's ignorance of his international reputation are key factors in the emergence of extraterritorial trade sanctions.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135309028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russell Hillberry, Kornel Mahlstein, Simon Schropp
: We use data from PayPal to study the geography of online payment activity. An empirical gravity model finds a distance elasticity of -0.58 for payment values, a result that is 40% lower than typically observed in conventional trade data. The firm-extensive margin is approximately half as sensitive to distance. The link between the scale of merchants’ exports and transaction distance is considerably weaker than observed in conventional international trade data. Zipf’s Law holds for PayPal merchants in some countries, but fails in smaller PayPal markets. Merchant age accounts only marginally affects the scale and average distance of export sales.
{"title":"The geography of payment activity on PayPal","authors":"Russell Hillberry, Kornel Mahlstein, Simon Schropp","doi":"10.1111/roie.12683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12683","url":null,"abstract":": We use data from PayPal to study the geography of online payment activity. An empirical gravity model finds a distance elasticity of -0.58 for payment values, a result that is 40% lower than typically observed in conventional trade data. The firm-extensive margin is approximately half as sensitive to distance. The link between the scale of merchants’ exports and transaction distance is considerably weaker than observed in conventional international trade data. Zipf’s Law holds for PayPal merchants in some countries, but fails in smaller PayPal markets. Merchant age accounts only marginally affects the scale and average distance of export sales.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48513481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christian Keuschnigg, Linda Kirschner, Michael Kogler, Hannah Winterberg
Abstract We propose a model of the Eurozone and analyze an asymmetric recession in a vulnerable member state with high public debt, weak banks, and low growth. We compare macroeconomic adjustment under continued membership with two exit scenarios that introduce flexible exchange rates and autonomous monetary policy. An exit with stable investor expectations could significantly dampen the short‐run impact. Stabilization is achieved by a targeted monetary expansion combined with depreciation. However, investor panic may lead to escalation, aggravate the recession and delay the recovery.
{"title":"Monetary union, asymmetric recession, and exit","authors":"Christian Keuschnigg, Linda Kirschner, Michael Kogler, Hannah Winterberg","doi":"10.1111/roie.12693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12693","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We propose a model of the Eurozone and analyze an asymmetric recession in a vulnerable member state with high public debt, weak banks, and low growth. We compare macroeconomic adjustment under continued membership with two exit scenarios that introduce flexible exchange rates and autonomous monetary policy. An exit with stable investor expectations could significantly dampen the short‐run impact. Stabilization is achieved by a targeted monetary expansion combined with depreciation. However, investor panic may lead to escalation, aggravate the recession and delay the recovery.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136355759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article examines the disparate impacts of Chinese import growth on US workers according to gender and age. I show that Chinese import growth generates larger employment losses for less skilled women than men in manufacturing. The gendered effects vary by age and are most concentrated among middle‐aged workers. The motherhood career interruption may explain the gender‐age disparities. Trade shocks depress labor outcomes more for women with children than for their male counterparts. Moreover, I find that the gender‐age differential effect is alleviated when trade shocks hit industries with longer female job tenure.
{"title":"The impacts of trade liberalization on the local labor market: Older women are especially vulnerable","authors":"Chan Yu","doi":"10.1111/roie.12694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12694","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article examines the disparate impacts of Chinese import growth on US workers according to gender and age. I show that Chinese import growth generates larger employment losses for less skilled women than men in manufacturing. The gendered effects vary by age and are most concentrated among middle‐aged workers. The motherhood career interruption may explain the gender‐age disparities. Trade shocks depress labor outcomes more for women with children than for their male counterparts. Moreover, I find that the gender‐age differential effect is alleviated when trade shocks hit industries with longer female job tenure.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136355773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Constantinos Syropoulos, Gabriel Felbermayr, Aleksandra Kirilakha, Erdal Yalcin, Yoto V. Yotov
Abstract This paper introduces the third update/release of the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB‐R3). The GSDB‐R3 extends the period of coverage from 1950–2019 to 1950–2022, which includes two special periods—COVID‐19 and the new sanctions against Russia. This update of the GSDB contains a total of 1325 cases. In response to multiple inquiries and requests, the GSDB‐R3 has been amended with a new variable that distinguishes between unilateral and multilateral sanctions. As before, the GSDB comes in two versions, case‐specific and dyadic, which are freely available upon request at GSDB@drexel.edu . To highlight one of the new features of the GSDB, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of unilateral and multilateral sanctions on trade. We also obtain estimates of the effects on trade of the 2014 sanctions on Russia.
{"title":"The global sanctions data base–Release 3: COVID‐19, Russia, and multilateral sanctions","authors":"Constantinos Syropoulos, Gabriel Felbermayr, Aleksandra Kirilakha, Erdal Yalcin, Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1111/roie.12691","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12691","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper introduces the third update/release of the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB‐R3). The GSDB‐R3 extends the period of coverage from 1950–2019 to 1950–2022, which includes two special periods—COVID‐19 and the new sanctions against Russia. This update of the GSDB contains a total of 1325 cases. In response to multiple inquiries and requests, the GSDB‐R3 has been amended with a new variable that distinguishes between unilateral and multilateral sanctions. As before, the GSDB comes in two versions, case‐specific and dyadic, which are freely available upon request at GSDB@drexel.edu . To highlight one of the new features of the GSDB, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of unilateral and multilateral sanctions on trade. We also obtain estimates of the effects on trade of the 2014 sanctions on Russia.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136355778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy's adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per capita GDP growth is quantified under the two alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that although weather shocks are generally detrimental to per capita income growth, the impact is less severe under flexible exchange rate regimes. Moreover, the medium‐term adverse growth impact of a 1°C increase in temperature under a pegged regime is about −1.4 percentage points on average, while under a flexible regime, the impact is less than one half that amount (−0.6 percentage point). This finding bolsters the idea that exchange rate flexibility not only helps mitigate the initial impact of the shock but also promotes a faster recovery. Importantly, there is evidence of nonlinear effects, whereby greater exchange rate flexibility can be more beneficial for EMDCs with hotter climates. In terms of mechanisms, our findings suggest that the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate under a flexible regime supports real export growth. In contrast to standard theoretical predictions, we find that countercyclical fiscal policy may not be effective under pegged regimes amid high debt, highlighting the importance of the policy mix and precautionary (fiscal) buffers.
{"title":"Weather shocks and exchange rate flexibility","authors":"Selim Elekdag, Maxwell Tuuli","doi":"10.1111/roie.12692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12692","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy's adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per capita GDP growth is quantified under the two alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that although weather shocks are generally detrimental to per capita income growth, the impact is less severe under flexible exchange rate regimes. Moreover, the medium‐term adverse growth impact of a 1°C increase in temperature under a pegged regime is about −1.4 percentage points on average, while under a flexible regime, the impact is less than one half that amount (−0.6 percentage point). This finding bolsters the idea that exchange rate flexibility not only helps mitigate the initial impact of the shock but also promotes a faster recovery. Importantly, there is evidence of nonlinear effects, whereby greater exchange rate flexibility can be more beneficial for EMDCs with hotter climates. In terms of mechanisms, our findings suggest that the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate under a flexible regime supports real export growth. In contrast to standard theoretical predictions, we find that countercyclical fiscal policy may not be effective under pegged regimes amid high debt, highlighting the importance of the policy mix and precautionary (fiscal) buffers.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136260963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trade policy uncertainty and pollution emissions of export enterprises—The case of China‐ASEAN free trade area","authors":"Kexuan Zhou, Linhui Yu, Xinling Jiang, Sanjay Kumar","doi":"10.1111/roie.12684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12684","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44907710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：