This study investigates the issue of trilemma versus dilemma in relation to monetary autonomy. We construct a long‐term interest rate independence index (LRI) apart from the conventional monetary policy independence evaluated on the basis of the short‐term interest rate independence index (SRI). LRI intends to capture the independence of domestic financial conditions and the monetary policy in a broad sense. Empirical results are as follows. On the basis of SRI, trilemma holds well, in which trade‐offs between SRI and international capital mobility and between SRI and exchange rate stability are found. This outcome is consistent with the findings of many past studies that support trilemma. However, on the basis of LRI, dilemma holds after the global financial crisis because only the trade‐off between LRI and international capital mobility exists. This result is consistent with the conclusion of Rey (2013), which emphasized the huge effects of the global financial cycle on the domestic financial condition owing to the integration of international financial markets. Empirical results settle the issue between trilemma and dilemma.
本研究探讨了与货币自主权相关的三难与两难问题。除了以短期利率独立性指数（SRI）为基础的传统货币政策独立性评估外，我们还构建了长期利率独立性指数（LRI）。LRI 意在从广义上反映国内金融条件和货币政策的独立性。实证结果如下。在 SRI 的基础上，三难困境成立，即 SRI 与国际资本流动性之间以及 SRI 与汇率稳定性之间存在权衡。这一结果与过去许多支持三难困境的研究结果一致。然而，以 LRI 为基础，两难困境在全球金融危机后依然存在，因为只有 LRI 与国际资本流动性之间存在权衡。这一结果与 Rey（2013）的结论一致，后者强调了由于国际金融市场的一体化，全球金融周期对国内金融状况的巨大影响。实证结果解决了三难和两难之间的问题。
{"title":"Trilemma versus dilemma: Monetary autonomy and long‐term interest rate independence","authors":"Kyunghun Kim, Soyoung Kim","doi":"10.1111/roie.12751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12751","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the issue of trilemma versus dilemma in relation to monetary autonomy. We construct a long‐term interest rate independence index (LRI) apart from the conventional monetary policy independence evaluated on the basis of the short‐term interest rate independence index (SRI). LRI intends to capture the independence of domestic financial conditions and the monetary policy in a broad sense. Empirical results are as follows. On the basis of SRI, trilemma holds well, in which trade‐offs between SRI and international capital mobility and between SRI and exchange rate stability are found. This outcome is consistent with the findings of many past studies that support trilemma. However, on the basis of LRI, dilemma holds after the global financial crisis because only the trade‐off between LRI and international capital mobility exists. This result is consistent with the conclusion of Rey (2013), which emphasized the huge effects of the global financial cycle on the domestic financial condition owing to the integration of international financial markets. Empirical results settle the issue between trilemma and dilemma.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141385286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the effect of exports on worker safety and health in the US. We use foreign countries' unilateral liberalization as an instrument to capture the demand shocks on US exports. Our two‐stage estimates with establishment fixed effects suggest that a $1000 increase in exports per worker decreased the workplace injury rate by a significant 0.7%, which implies an annual reduction of about 55,000 injuries among manufacturing workers. The reduction in injuries is more salient among establishments with lower injury rates, indicating an increase of inequality in working conditions. The improvement in working conditions might come from more investment in advanced equipment and better compliance with safety and health regulations.
{"title":"Can exports be pain relievers? The effect of exports on workplace safety and health","authors":"Ling Li, Yang Liang","doi":"10.1111/roie.12765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12765","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effect of exports on worker safety and health in the US. We use foreign countries' unilateral liberalization as an instrument to capture the demand shocks on US exports. Our two‐stage estimates with establishment fixed effects suggest that a $1000 increase in exports per worker decreased the workplace injury rate by a significant 0.7%, which implies an annual reduction of about 55,000 injuries among manufacturing workers. The reduction in injuries is more salient among establishments with lower injury rates, indicating an increase of inequality in working conditions. The improvement in working conditions might come from more investment in advanced equipment and better compliance with safety and health regulations.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141196947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper empirically examines the heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops in international capital flows on economic growth. We identified 24 sudden stop episodes since 1990 and employed a counterfactual method with cross‐economy panel data to evaluate the impact of each episode on economic growth. The results indicate that 14 sudden stop episodes triggered significant economic decline, with varying magnitudes; 9 episodes were accompanied by insignificant economic downturn, and 1 episode was followed by economic growth. We further utilize the treatment effect derived from the counterfactual analysis to investigate the causes of these heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops on economic growth. Results obtained from the panel data model suggest that external debt, financial development, and real investment return are the main driving forces contributing to the observed heterogeneity.
{"title":"Heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops of international capital flows on economic growth","authors":"Xiaoyun Fan, Wei Wang, Zitong Xu, Haoxi Yang","doi":"10.1111/roie.12759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12759","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically examines the heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops in international capital flows on economic growth. We identified 24 sudden stop episodes since 1990 and employed a counterfactual method with cross‐economy panel data to evaluate the impact of each episode on economic growth. The results indicate that 14 sudden stop episodes triggered significant economic decline, with varying magnitudes; 9 episodes were accompanied by insignificant economic downturn, and 1 episode was followed by economic growth. We further utilize the treatment effect derived from the counterfactual analysis to investigate the causes of these heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops on economic growth. Results obtained from the panel data model suggest that external debt, financial development, and real investment return are the main driving forces contributing to the observed heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140978665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article investigates the Linder hypothesis for foreign direct investment (FDI) within the three‐way gravity framework, utilizing a newly compiled and extensive dataset encompassing greenfield and brownfield investment activities across diverse sectors from 2003 to 2018. The Linder hypothesis posits that multinational firms invest in countries with comparable income levels to their home country. Our primary findings affirm the relevance of the Linder hypothesis in the context of horizontal FDI. The influence of the Linder effect varies among sectors, with the service sector exhibiting the most pronounced effect, while no detectable effect is observable for the manufacturing sector. We also find that the Linder effect depends on the sector's position within the value chain and the degree of quality differentiation. Sectors closer to final consumer demand and those characterized by higher product differentiation exhibit greater exposure to the Linder effect. Additionally, our analysis reveals that the Linder effect is subject to variations based on the income levels of the host country and highlights the significance of consumer preferences in shaping FDI patterns. Our article underscores the pivotal role of industry dynamics, product quality considerations, and value chain positioning in influencing the Linder effect on FDI.
{"title":"The Linder hypothesis for foreign direct investment revisited","authors":"Dongin Kim, Sandro Steinbach","doi":"10.1111/roie.12758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12758","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the Linder hypothesis for foreign direct investment (FDI) within the three‐way gravity framework, utilizing a newly compiled and extensive dataset encompassing greenfield and brownfield investment activities across diverse sectors from 2003 to 2018. The Linder hypothesis posits that multinational firms invest in countries with comparable income levels to their home country. Our primary findings affirm the relevance of the Linder hypothesis in the context of horizontal FDI. The influence of the Linder effect varies among sectors, with the service sector exhibiting the most pronounced effect, while no detectable effect is observable for the manufacturing sector. We also find that the Linder effect depends on the sector's position within the value chain and the degree of quality differentiation. Sectors closer to final consumer demand and those characterized by higher product differentiation exhibit greater exposure to the Linder effect. Additionally, our analysis reveals that the Linder effect is subject to variations based on the income levels of the host country and highlights the significance of consumer preferences in shaping FDI patterns. Our article underscores the pivotal role of industry dynamics, product quality considerations, and value chain positioning in influencing the Linder effect on FDI.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140938543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines how trade policy shocks impact firm innovation indirectly through information sharing across firms. Using a unique dataset of Chinese firms between 2000 and 2013, we identify connections between firms by exploiting spillover effects of antidumping. Empirical results show that antidumping has negative spillover effects on firm innovation through information exchanges across firms in market or product networks. Trade restrictions on extensive and intensive margins work as important channels through which the networks impact firm innovation. Our findings provide new empirical evidence on indirect effects of antidumping on firm innovation and better understanding on channels of trade policy shocks.
{"title":"The ripple effect: How trade policy shocks impact innovation of Chinese firms","authors":"Ning Meng, Yining Ni, Yeqing Ma","doi":"10.1111/roie.12757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12757","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines how trade policy shocks impact firm innovation indirectly through information sharing across firms. Using a unique dataset of Chinese firms between 2000 and 2013, we identify connections between firms by exploiting spillover effects of antidumping. Empirical results show that antidumping has negative spillover effects on firm innovation through information exchanges across firms in market or product networks. Trade restrictions on extensive and intensive margins work as important channels through which the networks impact firm innovation. Our findings provide new empirical evidence on indirect effects of antidumping on firm innovation and better understanding on channels of trade policy shocks.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140996165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policies, capital controls, and their joint effect on income inequality. Using a panel dataset covering 60 countries from 2000 to 2019, we find that macroprudential policies and capital controls can mitigate income inequality, which are robust to various subsets of policy indexes. However, the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on income inequality depends on the tightness of capital controls. We verify that macroprudential policies affect income inequality through private sector leverage, and both capital controls and macroprudential policies have significant influences on gross capital flows and net capital flows to affect income inequality.
{"title":"Macroprudential policies, capital controls, and income inequality","authors":"Yu You, Xiaoying Hu, Zongye Huang","doi":"10.1111/roie.12756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12756","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policies, capital controls, and their joint effect on income inequality. Using a panel dataset covering 60 countries from 2000 to 2019, we find that macroprudential policies and capital controls can mitigate income inequality, which are robust to various subsets of policy indexes. However, the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on income inequality depends on the tightness of capital controls. We verify that macroprudential policies affect income inequality through private sector leverage, and both capital controls and macroprudential policies have significant influences on gross capital flows and net capital flows to affect income inequality.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140836806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mengting Zhang, Andreas Steiner, Jakob de Haan, Haizhen Yang
We analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt flows and banking flows have a significant positive impact on currency crises. Finally, our results suggest that countries with mature financial systems and fixed exchange rate regimes are less likely to experience a currency crisis after a capital flow shock. The mediating role of capital account liberalization varies by country type.
{"title":"Capital flow reversals and currency crises: Do capital flow types matter?","authors":"Mengting Zhang, Andreas Steiner, Jakob de Haan, Haizhen Yang","doi":"10.1111/roie.12753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12753","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt flows and banking flows have a significant positive impact on currency crises. Finally, our results suggest that countries with mature financial systems and fixed exchange rate regimes are less likely to experience a currency crisis after a capital flow shock. The mediating role of capital account liberalization varies by country type.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140806366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article analyzes the ways heterogenous firms procure their inputs in the presence of relationship‐specific investments and incomplete contracts. We first consider a closed economy in which firms decide how to structure their organization. Production is sequential and inputs (upstream and downstream) are sourced in the same order as production. While our closed‐economy setup is analogous to Antràs and Chor (Econometrica, 2013), there are two distinct features: (1) The reward to each supplier is determined through bargaining over the full revenue of the firm (as opposed to marginal contribution of the supplier), and (2) The reward structure combined with our sequential bargaining protocol gives rise to linkages across suppliers. The analysis in Antràs and Chor (Econometrica, 2013) identifies a mechanism in which upstream organizational decisions have spillover effects on downstream suppliers' investment incentives. Thanks to our novel features, we identify another mechanism: the spillover effects of downstream organizational decisions on the investment incentive of upstream suppliers. Next, we consider an open economy in which firms not only make organizational decisions but also determine where to source their inputs. We show that these decisions are connected between sequential production stages such that the sourcing location of the upstream input may affect the organizational choice in the downstream stage. We then examine how within sectoral heterogeneity and variations in industry characteristics influence the relative prevalence of firms that choose to form different organizational structures.
{"title":"The link between organizational choice and global input sourcing under sequential production","authors":"Bilgehan Karabay","doi":"10.1111/roie.12754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12754","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyzes the ways heterogenous firms procure their inputs in the presence of relationship‐specific investments and incomplete contracts. We first consider a closed economy in which firms decide how to structure their organization. Production is sequential and inputs (upstream and downstream) are sourced in the same order as production. While our closed‐economy setup is analogous to Antràs and Chor (<jats:italic>Econometrica</jats:italic>, 2013), there are two distinct features: (1) The reward to each supplier is determined through bargaining over the full revenue of the firm (as opposed to marginal contribution of the supplier), and (2) The reward structure combined with our sequential bargaining protocol gives rise to linkages across suppliers. The analysis in Antràs and Chor (<jats:italic>Econometrica</jats:italic>, 2013) identifies a mechanism in which <jats:italic>upstream</jats:italic> organizational decisions have spillover effects on <jats:italic>downstream</jats:italic> suppliers' investment incentives. Thanks to our novel features, we identify another mechanism: the spillover effects of <jats:italic>downstream</jats:italic> organizational decisions on the investment incentive of <jats:italic>upstream</jats:italic> suppliers. Next, we consider an open economy in which firms not only make organizational decisions but also determine where to source their inputs. We show that these decisions are connected <jats:italic>between sequential production stages</jats:italic> such that the sourcing location of the upstream input may affect the organizational choice in the downstream stage. We then examine how within sectoral heterogeneity and variations in industry characteristics influence the relative prevalence of firms that choose to form different organizational structures.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140800929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study explores how income inequality among individuals in each country and trade costs depicting geographic distance between countries impact economic welfare and regime choice under representative democracy, comparing three trading regimes: most favored nation, customs union, and free trade agreement. We examine two cases: one in which trade costs are incurred symmetrically among all countries, and the other in which no trade costs are incurred among the potential member countries, but only between them and nonmembers. In each case, we identify the political feasibility of each regime as well as the impact on the average welfare levels.
{"title":"The politics of tariff cooperation in the presence of trade costs","authors":"Taiki Susa, Masafumi Tsubuku","doi":"10.1111/roie.12755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12755","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores how income inequality among individuals in each country and trade costs depicting geographic distance between countries impact economic welfare and regime choice under representative democracy, comparing three trading regimes: most favored nation, customs union, and free trade agreement. We examine two cases: one in which trade costs are incurred symmetrically among all countries, and the other in which no trade costs are incurred among the potential member countries, but only between them and nonmembers. In each case, we identify the political feasibility of each regime as well as the impact on the average welfare levels.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140800897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the impact of Brexit on international student migration. In a structural gravity model, we estimate student migration between 69 countries for counterfactual scenarios in which the United Kingdom leaves the European Union one year before the referendum. This exercise reveals a decrease in exchange students studying in the UK of around 3.8% to 4.9%. While the number of non‐EU students to the UK rises, a drop in EU student numbers drives this result. Similarly, 30% to 38% fewer UK students choose to study abroad. The estimated changes in international student stocks show that most other member countries lose international students and non‐EU countries host more than without Brexit. Our findings provide evidence that there may be hidden costs to Brexit affecting global student exchanges that we have yet to see.
{"title":"Brexit and foreign students in gravity","authors":"Ronald B. Davies, Lena S. Specht","doi":"10.1111/roie.12750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12750","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of Brexit on international student migration. In a structural gravity model, we estimate student migration between 69 countries for counterfactual scenarios in which the United Kingdom leaves the European Union one year before the referendum. This exercise reveals a decrease in exchange students studying in the UK of around 3.8% to 4.9%. While the number of non‐EU students to the UK rises, a drop in EU student numbers drives this result. Similarly, 30% to 38% fewer UK students choose to study abroad. The estimated changes in international student stocks show that most other member countries lose international students and non‐EU countries host more than without Brexit. Our findings provide evidence that there may be hidden costs to Brexit affecting global student exchanges that we have yet to see.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140583560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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