This article investigates the effect of China's college expansion policy on firms' exporting behavior. Taking advantage of this policy‐induced exogenous surge in skilled labor starting in 2002, our difference‐in‐differences estimates indicate that firms in more human‐capital‐intensive industries have been able to export more since 2002. We further show that this result is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests and controlling for other contemporaneous changes in economic environment. Turning to channels, we find that after 2002, the affected firms experienced greater improvements in product quality and exported relatively more to richer countries.
{"title":"Educated workers and firms' exporting behavior: The case of China","authors":"Yi Che, Jinqiu Lv, Yan Zhang","doi":"10.1111/roie.12712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12712","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the effect of China's college expansion policy on firms' exporting behavior. Taking advantage of this policy‐induced exogenous surge in skilled labor starting in 2002, our difference‐in‐differences estimates indicate that firms in more human‐capital‐intensive industries have been able to export more since 2002. We further show that this result is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests and controlling for other contemporaneous changes in economic environment. Turning to channels, we find that after 2002, the affected firms experienced greater improvements in product quality and exported relatively more to richer countries.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"21 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139268549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We extend the theoretical model of Antoniades (2015, Heterogeneous Firms, quality, and trade. Journal of International Economics , 95(2), 263–273) to analyze the impact of export demand shocks on the quality of multi‐product firms. Using Chinese micro‐data, we find that positive export demand shocks significantly promote the export quality of multi‐product firms, but the impact decreases as firm productivity increases. In addition to the scale effect and the competition effect, the intensified competition caused by the expansion of export demand will induce firms to skew their export sales towards the best performing products. Our findings elucidate the importance of the resource reallocation effect in the study of trade‐induced export performance.
{"title":"Do export demand shocks affect the export quality of multi‐product firms? Evidence from China","authors":"Lei Wang, Xianhai Huang, Qianyun Sun","doi":"10.1111/roie.12715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12715","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We extend the theoretical model of Antoniades (2015, Heterogeneous Firms, quality, and trade. Journal of International Economics , 95(2), 263–273) to analyze the impact of export demand shocks on the quality of multi‐product firms. Using Chinese micro‐data, we find that positive export demand shocks significantly promote the export quality of multi‐product firms, but the impact decreases as firm productivity increases. In addition to the scale effect and the competition effect, the intensified competition caused by the expansion of export demand will induce firms to skew their export sales towards the best performing products. Our findings elucidate the importance of the resource reallocation effect in the study of trade‐induced export performance.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"262 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135273488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Through the lens of a quantitative general equilibrium model of international trade and multinational production, this paper studies corporate tax competition and cooperation among asymmetric countries. The model theoretically supports the empirical regularities that corporate income taxation influences multinational firms' location and production decisions. Calibrating the model to three asymmetric countries for a hypothetical tax competition, I find that race to the bottom occurs in the Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, counterfactual analysis of the global minimum corporate tax shows welfare reduction compared to the equilibrium of tax competition but welfare improvement compared to the current tax regime.
{"title":"Corporate income taxation and multinational production","authors":"Yang Shen","doi":"10.1111/roie.12718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12718","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Through the lens of a quantitative general equilibrium model of international trade and multinational production, this paper studies corporate tax competition and cooperation among asymmetric countries. The model theoretically supports the empirical regularities that corporate income taxation influences multinational firms' location and production decisions. Calibrating the model to three asymmetric countries for a hypothetical tax competition, I find that race to the bottom occurs in the Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, counterfactual analysis of the global minimum corporate tax shows welfare reduction compared to the equilibrium of tax competition but welfare improvement compared to the current tax regime.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"7 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136104602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We examine the 2014 European Union economic sanctions on exports to Russia and the Russian retaliatory measures on imports from several Western countries. Using the universe of highly disaggregated international trade and taxation data for firms in the Netherlands, we systematically analyze the impact of these economic sanctions on Dutch firms' exports and foreign direct investment. Our analyses account for the product‐specific EU restrictions on arms, equipment used for oil exploration and extraction, and dual‐use products suitable for civilian and military use, as well as the Russian import ban on various primary commodities. Our empirical findings highlight the overall negative impact of sanctions on the intensive margin of exports. However, having a foreign affiliate in Russia helps to mitigate the otherwise negative impact of sanctions on the extensive margin of exports. We also show that exporters do not circumvent sanctions by setting up a local affiliate in Russia. In fact, exposure to Russian countersanctions may even force firms to close their Russian affiliates.
{"title":"Going Dutch? Firm exports and FDI in the wake of the 2014 EU‐Russia sanctions","authors":"Tristan Kohl, Marcel van den Berg, Loe Franssen","doi":"10.1111/roie.12717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12717","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine the 2014 European Union economic sanctions on exports to Russia and the Russian retaliatory measures on imports from several Western countries. Using the universe of highly disaggregated international trade and taxation data for firms in the Netherlands, we systematically analyze the impact of these economic sanctions on Dutch firms' exports and foreign direct investment. Our analyses account for the product‐specific EU restrictions on arms, equipment used for oil exploration and extraction, and dual‐use products suitable for civilian and military use, as well as the Russian import ban on various primary commodities. Our empirical findings highlight the overall negative impact of sanctions on the intensive margin of exports. However, having a foreign affiliate in Russia helps to mitigate the otherwise negative impact of sanctions on the extensive margin of exports. We also show that exporters do not circumvent sanctions by setting up a local affiliate in Russia. In fact, exposure to Russian countersanctions may even force firms to close their Russian affiliates.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"63 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136317154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper provides direct empirical evidence that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are consistent with the terms‐of‐trade theory. Using PTAs that occur between 2001 and 2015, we first show a PTA is associated with being more likely if countries have greater importer market power over one another. Second, using recently available tariff data for 39 bilateral PTAs, we show high levels of importer market power lead to tariff cuts that are larger in magnitude when PTAs enter into force. These results provide a rationale for why PTAs are permitted by the World Trade Organization.
{"title":"Importer market power and preferential trade agreements: Empirical evidence","authors":"Ross Jestrab","doi":"10.1111/roie.12713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12713","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides direct empirical evidence that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are consistent with the terms‐of‐trade theory. Using PTAs that occur between 2001 and 2015, we first show a PTA is associated with being more likely if countries have greater importer market power over one another. Second, using recently available tariff data for 39 bilateral PTAs, we show high levels of importer market power lead to tariff cuts that are larger in magnitude when PTAs enter into force. These results provide a rationale for why PTAs are permitted by the World Trade Organization.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"37 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136262708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully and systematically undermine Western sanction efforts, we study the effects of US and EU sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 2002–2019. We find no evidence of systematic sanction busting by Russia. For China, our results are more ambiguous. While we do not find robust evidence for an increase in overall trade between China and countries targeted by Western sanctions, trade in (raw) materials and critical goods increases notably.
{"title":"Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation","authors":"Jerg Gutmann, Matthias Neuenkirch, Florian Neumeier","doi":"10.1111/roie.12716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12716","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully and systematically undermine Western sanction efforts, we study the effects of US and EU sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 2002–2019. We find no evidence of systematic sanction busting by Russia. For China, our results are more ambiguous. While we do not find robust evidence for an increase in overall trade between China and countries targeted by Western sanctions, trade in (raw) materials and critical goods increases notably.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"142 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136318310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Orefice, Giovanni Pica, Anna Cecilia Rosso
Abstract This article investigates the effect of shocks to the occupational structure of exporting firms induced by the introduction of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) in importing countries. We rely on specific trade concerns data to identify trade‐restrictive TBT measures, combined with matched employer‐employee data for French exporters over the period 1995–2010, and information on the product‐destinations served by each exporter. Controlling for time‐invariant firm/occupation fixed effects and for time‐varying sector/occupation shocks, the 2SLS estimates show that exporting firms adapt to the imposition of TBTs at destination by increasing the share of managers at the expense of blue collars, white collars and other professionals.
{"title":"TBTs, firm organization and labor structure","authors":"Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Orefice, Giovanni Pica, Anna Cecilia Rosso","doi":"10.1111/roie.12714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12714","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article investigates the effect of shocks to the occupational structure of exporting firms induced by the introduction of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) in importing countries. We rely on specific trade concerns data to identify trade‐restrictive TBT measures, combined with matched employer‐employee data for French exporters over the period 1995–2010, and information on the product‐destinations served by each exporter. Controlling for time‐invariant firm/occupation fixed effects and for time‐varying sector/occupation shocks, the 2SLS estimates show that exporting firms adapt to the imposition of TBTs at destination by increasing the share of managers at the expense of blue collars, white collars and other professionals.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"62 14","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135316517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999–2011. Increases in upstream, forward GVC integration directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via other business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly , by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream‐biased”. Rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, relative demand for labor there.
{"title":"Automation, global value chains and functional specialization","authors":"Lionel Fontagné, Ariell Reshef, Gianluca Santoni, Giulio Vannelli","doi":"10.1111/roie.12711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12711","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999–2011. Increases in upstream, forward GVC integration directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via other business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly , by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream‐biased”. Rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, relative demand for labor there.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135884474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study proposes an empirical strategy to identify the impact of policy uncertainty (PU) at the host economy‐sector‐reservation level on foreign direct investment (FDI) by exploiting sectoral differences in PU before and after the entry into force of international investment agreements (IIAs). These sectoral differences arise because IIAs mitigate PU in host economies, but sectors included in negative lists of IIAs continue to face different degrees of PU owing to exemptions from certain obligations, such as national treatment and the most favored nation in IIAs. Using this empirical strategy, we evaluate how the activities of Japanese multinational enterprises and their foreign affiliates are affected by Japan's 22 IIAs, including bilateral investment treaties and economic partnership agreements with investment provisions, during 1995–2016 at the microdata level. We find that PU regarding a combination of national treatment and most favored nation has a negative impact on FDI. In particular, PU discourages the establishment of new foreign affiliates. However, PU does not necessarily induce affiliates to exit the market.
{"title":"The impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment: Micro‐evidence from Japan's international investment agreements","authors":"Mitsuo Inada, Naoto Jinji","doi":"10.1111/roie.12710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12710","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study proposes an empirical strategy to identify the impact of policy uncertainty (PU) at the host economy‐sector‐reservation level on foreign direct investment (FDI) by exploiting sectoral differences in PU before and after the entry into force of international investment agreements (IIAs). These sectoral differences arise because IIAs mitigate PU in host economies, but sectors included in negative lists of IIAs continue to face different degrees of PU owing to exemptions from certain obligations, such as national treatment and the most favored nation in IIAs. Using this empirical strategy, we evaluate how the activities of Japanese multinational enterprises and their foreign affiliates are affected by Japan's 22 IIAs, including bilateral investment treaties and economic partnership agreements with investment provisions, during 1995–2016 at the microdata level. We find that PU regarding a combination of national treatment and most favored nation has a negative impact on FDI. In particular, PU discourages the establishment of new foreign affiliates. However, PU does not necessarily induce affiliates to exit the market.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135351780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lisandra Flach, Inga Heiland, Mario Larch, Marina Steininger, Feodora A. Teti
Abstract This paper evaluates the effects of sanctions on Russia between 2014 and 2019 and the resulting countersanctions. We estimate their impact on trade in a gravity framework, allowing for treatment heterogeneity among pairs and sectors, and use the estimated elasticities in a general equilibrium analysis. We find that the sanctions decreased trade with Russia in key sectors, translating to a loss in real income in Russia by 0.3%. Full decoupling of the EU and its allies from Russia would increase this effect to over 4%. Our results emphasize the role of deep sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and international cooperation.
{"title":"Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia","authors":"Lisandra Flach, Inga Heiland, Mario Larch, Marina Steininger, Feodora A. Teti","doi":"10.1111/roie.12707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12707","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper evaluates the effects of sanctions on Russia between 2014 and 2019 and the resulting countersanctions. We estimate their impact on trade in a gravity framework, allowing for treatment heterogeneity among pairs and sectors, and use the estimated elasticities in a general equilibrium analysis. We find that the sanctions decreased trade with Russia in key sectors, translating to a loss in real income in Russia by 0.3%. Full decoupling of the EU and its allies from Russia would increase this effect to over 4%. Our results emphasize the role of deep sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and international cooperation.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136062301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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