Maria del Mar Delgado, Chiara Bettega, Davide Scridel, Antonio López Orta, Rafael Benjumea, Mattia Brambilla, Paolo Pedrini, Devin R. de Zwaan
The loss of both functionally distinct and geographically restricted (i.e., rare) species can limit the capacity of ecological communities to respond to ongoing environmental changes. Mountains, which harbor high biodiversity and unique species, are particularly vulnerable to rapidly shifting climate conditions and remain understudied compared to lowland areas, creating significant global conservation challenges. In this study, we assessed the inter‐relatedness of species' functional distinctiveness, geographic restrictedness, and rarity (i.e., the combination of geographic restrictedness and functional distinctiveness) in the context of thermal niche space for 800 mountain birds breeding in the Holarctic. We demonstrated that mountain bird species in colder thermal niches exhibit distinct trait‐based responses that are spatially non‐stationary and play unique functional roles in their ecosystems, highlighting the combined roles of environmental filtering and functional turnover in shaping mountain bird communities. When linking geographical restrictedness to functional distinctiveness, we found that most rare species occur in mountain areas experiencing high rates of warming. Together, these results highlight the vulnerability of cold‐adapted species or communities of the Holarctic mountains to climate change. Due to the irreplaceable role of functionally distinct species in ecological networks, we anticipate that cold regions within the Holarctic mountains may be particularly susceptible to cascading, climate‐driven species loss and community disruptions. Understanding the linkages between species‐specific vulnerability to climate change and ecosystem functioning is key to preserving the unique ecological and evolutionary characteristics contained within mountains.
{"title":"Functional distinctiveness and rarity highlight climate vulnerability of mountain birds","authors":"Maria del Mar Delgado, Chiara Bettega, Davide Scridel, Antonio López Orta, Rafael Benjumea, Mattia Brambilla, Paolo Pedrini, Devin R. de Zwaan","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70345","url":null,"abstract":"The loss of both functionally distinct and geographically restricted (i.e., rare) species can limit the capacity of ecological communities to respond to ongoing environmental changes. Mountains, which harbor high biodiversity and unique species, are particularly vulnerable to rapidly shifting climate conditions and remain understudied compared to lowland areas, creating significant global conservation challenges. In this study, we assessed the inter‐relatedness of species' functional distinctiveness, geographic restrictedness, and rarity (i.e., the combination of geographic restrictedness and functional distinctiveness) in the context of thermal niche space for 800 mountain birds breeding in the Holarctic. We demonstrated that mountain bird species in colder thermal niches exhibit distinct trait‐based responses that are spatially non‐stationary and play unique functional roles in their ecosystems, highlighting the combined roles of environmental filtering and functional turnover in shaping mountain bird communities. When linking geographical restrictedness to functional distinctiveness, we found that most rare species occur in mountain areas experiencing high rates of warming. Together, these results highlight the vulnerability of cold‐adapted species or communities of the Holarctic mountains to climate change. Due to the irreplaceable role of functionally distinct species in ecological networks, we anticipate that cold regions within the Holarctic mountains may be particularly susceptible to cascading, climate‐driven species loss and community disruptions. Understanding the linkages between species‐specific vulnerability to climate change and ecosystem functioning is key to preserving the unique ecological and evolutionary characteristics contained within mountains.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147478091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Thomas J. Muratore, Nikhil R. Chari, Richard P. Phillips, Benton N. Taylor, Melissa A. Knorr, Serita D. Frey
Plant roots are primary drivers of soil organic matter dynamics, mediating belowground carbon (C) inputs, stabilization, and losses. Yet, how global changes such as rising temperatures and altered nitrogen (N) availability interact to affect these dynamics has rarely been tested empirically in the field. Here, we quantify how inputs to soil organic matter from fine‐root production, root exudates, and root‐associated fungi respond to long‐term (16 years) soil warming (+5°C), nitrogen (N) enrichment (+5 g N m −2 year −1 ), and their combination in a temperate hardwood forest. Warming alone reduced root‐derived C inputs by 21% and increased microbial respiration by 46%, resulting in a net soil C loss of 135 g C m −2 year −1 . In contrast, N enrichment increased root‐derived soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation by 47% and reduced root respiration by 40%, contributing to a near‐neutral soil C balance. When combined, warming × N addition increased root‐derived SOC fourfold (from 70 to 281 g C m −2 year −1 ), fully offsetting warming‐induced C losses and maintaining soil C stocks at control levels. Root‐derived SOC accumulation was positively related to fine‐root production ( r2 = 0.42) and to maple:oak exudate ratios ( r2 = 0.31), highlighting species‐specific control over C stabilization. These findings demonstrate that interacting global change factors can have balancing effects on root C allocation and microbial losses, highlighting soil N availability as a critical control determining whether warming accelerates SOC depletion or stabilizes new root‐derived C.
植物根系是土壤有机质动态的主要驱动因素，介导地下碳(C)的输入、稳定和损失。然而，全球变化（如温度上升和氮(N)有效性的改变）如何相互作用影响这些动态，很少在实地进行经验检验。在这里，我们量化了在温带阔叶林中，细根生产、根分泌物和根相关真菌对土壤有机质的投入如何响应长期（16年）土壤变暖（+5°C）、氮(N)富集（+5 g N m−2年−1）及其组合。仅变暖就减少了21%的根源碳输入，增加了46%的微生物呼吸，导致土壤碳的净损失为135 g C m−2年−1。相反，氮的富集增加了47%的根源土壤有机碳（SOC）积累，减少了40%的根呼吸，有助于接近中性的土壤碳平衡。增温加氮使根源有机碳增加了4倍（从70到281 g C m−2年−1年），完全抵消了增温引起的碳损失，并将土壤碳储量维持在控制水平。根系来源的有机碳积累与细根产量（r 2 = 0.42）和枫树与橡树的分泌物比（r 2 = 0.31）呈正相关，突出了物种对碳稳定的特异性控制。这些发现表明，相互作用的全球变化因子对根碳分配和微生物损失具有平衡作用，强调土壤氮有效性是决定变暖是加速有机碳消耗还是稳定新的根源碳的关键控制因素。
{"title":"Increased root‐derived carbon buffers soil carbon loss under simultaneous warming and nitrogen addition","authors":"Thomas J. Muratore, Nikhil R. Chari, Richard P. Phillips, Benton N. Taylor, Melissa A. Knorr, Serita D. Frey","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70351","url":null,"abstract":"Plant roots are primary drivers of soil organic matter dynamics, mediating belowground carbon (C) inputs, stabilization, and losses. Yet, how global changes such as rising temperatures and altered nitrogen (N) availability interact to affect these dynamics has rarely been tested empirically in the field. Here, we quantify how inputs to soil organic matter from fine‐root production, root exudates, and root‐associated fungi respond to long‐term (16 years) soil warming (+5°C), nitrogen (N) enrichment (+5 g N m <jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> year <jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> ), and their combination in a temperate hardwood forest. Warming alone reduced root‐derived C inputs by 21% and increased microbial respiration by 46%, resulting in a net soil C loss of 135 g C m <jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> year <jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> . In contrast, N enrichment increased root‐derived soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation by 47% and reduced root respiration by 40%, contributing to a near‐neutral soil C balance. When combined, warming × N addition increased root‐derived SOC fourfold (from 70 to 281 g C m <jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> year <jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> ), fully offsetting warming‐induced C losses and maintaining soil C stocks at control levels. Root‐derived SOC accumulation was positively related to fine‐root production ( <jats:italic>r</jats:italic> <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0.42) and to maple:oak exudate ratios ( <jats:italic>r</jats:italic> <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0.31), highlighting species‐specific control over C stabilization. These findings demonstrate that interacting global change factors can have balancing effects on root C allocation and microbial losses, highlighting soil N availability as a critical control determining whether warming accelerates SOC depletion or stabilizes new root‐derived C.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"190 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147470860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the field of plant–herbivore interactions, a key question is to understand which plants will be consumed. From the point of view of herbivores, this question takes the form of how animals select resources. To answer it, the theory of optimal foraging provides a mathematical framework that takes into account the constraints experienced by animals, such as the availability and diversity of resources available. Historically, plant‐focused researchers have framed this question slightly differently: How to explain patterns of herbivory? Hypotheses grouped under the term associational effects aim to describe how plant community characteristics influence these patterns. Results of associational effects studies, however, are variable in magnitude, in direction and are often idiosyncratic. There is a growing awareness that associational effects could be equally well explained by optimal foraging. Several studies of associational effects, however, fail to consider factors linked with herbivores' active foraging choices such as the effects of plant size. I will try to mend the gap between fields using examples of optimal foraging framework integration in studies of associational effects, mostly with mammalian herbivores, but also with invertebrates. I review the proposed mechanisms for associational effects and evaluate whether they could be explained by optimal foraging. Finally, I propose guidance on predictions and type of studies that allow us to discriminate associational effects produced by optimal foraging from other potential mechanisms. Incorporating active foraging choices and using an optimal framework could improve our understanding of associational effects and their variations. Moreover, clearly identifying herbivores as the actor in these interactions forces us to consider their abilities and behavior. It also creates links with nutritional ecology, landscape ecology, and population dynamics and has potential implications in conservation and management practices.
{"title":"Associational effects need to be studied within an optimal foraging framework","authors":"Emilie Champagne","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70355","url":null,"abstract":"In the field of plant–herbivore interactions, a key question is to understand which plants will be consumed. From the point of view of herbivores, this question takes the form of how animals select resources. To answer it, the theory of optimal foraging provides a mathematical framework that takes into account the constraints experienced by animals, such as the availability and diversity of resources available. Historically, plant‐focused researchers have framed this question slightly differently: How to explain patterns of herbivory? Hypotheses grouped under the term associational effects aim to describe how plant community characteristics influence these patterns. Results of associational effects studies, however, are variable in magnitude, in direction and are often idiosyncratic. There is a growing awareness that associational effects could be equally well explained by optimal foraging. Several studies of associational effects, however, fail to consider factors linked with herbivores' active foraging choices such as the effects of plant size. I will try to mend the gap between fields using examples of optimal foraging framework integration in studies of associational effects, mostly with mammalian herbivores, but also with invertebrates. I review the proposed mechanisms for associational effects and evaluate whether they could be explained by optimal foraging. Finally, I propose guidance on predictions and type of studies that allow us to discriminate associational effects produced by optimal foraging from other potential mechanisms. Incorporating active foraging choices and using an optimal framework could improve our understanding of associational effects and their variations. Moreover, clearly identifying herbivores as the actor in these interactions forces us to consider their abilities and behavior. It also creates links with nutritional ecology, landscape ecology, and population dynamics and has potential implications in conservation and management practices.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147470859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carlota Solano‐Udina, María José Carmona, Eduardo M. García‐Roger
Environmental variability imposes strong selective pressures that may favor adaptive responses such as phenotypic plasticity and bet hedging. Plasticity is generally favored under predictable conditions, whereas bet hedging is advantageous against environmental uncertainty. Plastic responses rely on reliable cues to adjust phenotypes to future conditions, whereas bet hedging spreads risks when cues are unreliable. However, because environments often consist of both predictable and unpredictable components, combined responses may be selected. Here, plasticity and bet hedging were examined in diapause‐exit traits of Brachionus plicatilis clones sampled along a natural gradient of environmental predictability regarding hydroperiod length. Diapausing egg hatching was experimentally assessed under six salinity treatments, with salinity considered as a potential cue for diapause termination in predictable habitats. Because salinity integrates water volume and evaporation, it can act as an informative cue of the expected hydroperiod duration. For each clone, hatching fraction and timing of hatching were quantified across salinities, from which three key traits were derived: (1) a plasticity index of hatching fraction, capturing sensitivity to salinity; (2) the magnitude of hatching fraction across the studied salinity range, reflecting risk spreading among growing seasons through incomplete hatching (i.e., among‐season bet hedging); and (3) the variation in hatching time, spreading risk within a growing season through asynchronous hatching (i.e., within‐season bet hedging). Across clones, hatching fractions were higher and hatching occurred faster at low salinities, whereas hatching was delayed or even inhibited at higher salinities. Such a peaked response suggests that salinity is a reliable cue of favorable future conditions. Moreover, clones showed intermediate hatching fractions, indicative of bet hedging. Clones with higher hatching fractions also showed more asynchronous hatching, indicating potential functional redundancy between among‐season and within‐season bet hedging. Additionally, clones exhibiting stronger plastic responses showed higher hatching fractions, supporting the interpretation of phenotypic plasticity and bet hedging as alternative yet potentially co‐occurring adaptive responses. Finally, plasticity was greater in clones originating from predictable habitats, whereas bet‐hedging traits were stronger in clones from less predictable environments. Overall, these findings highlight how the reliability of environmental cues can shape the evolution of combined adaptive responses in fluctuating environments.
{"title":"Adaptive responses to environmental variability in rotifers: Integrating plasticity and bet hedging in dormancy exit","authors":"Carlota Solano‐Udina, María José Carmona, Eduardo M. García‐Roger","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70346","url":null,"abstract":"Environmental variability imposes strong selective pressures that may favor adaptive responses such as phenotypic plasticity and bet hedging. Plasticity is generally favored under predictable conditions, whereas bet hedging is advantageous against environmental uncertainty. Plastic responses rely on reliable cues to adjust phenotypes to future conditions, whereas bet hedging spreads risks when cues are unreliable. However, because environments often consist of both predictable and unpredictable components, combined responses may be selected. Here, plasticity and bet hedging were examined in diapause‐exit traits of <jats:italic>Brachionus plicatilis</jats:italic> clones sampled along a natural gradient of environmental predictability regarding hydroperiod length. Diapausing egg hatching was experimentally assessed under six salinity treatments, with salinity considered as a potential cue for diapause termination in predictable habitats. Because salinity integrates water volume and evaporation, it can act as an informative cue of the expected hydroperiod duration. For each clone, hatching fraction and timing of hatching were quantified across salinities, from which three key traits were derived: (1) a plasticity index of hatching fraction, capturing sensitivity to salinity; (2) the magnitude of hatching fraction across the studied salinity range, reflecting risk spreading among growing seasons through incomplete hatching (i.e., among‐season bet hedging); and (3) the variation in hatching time, spreading risk within a growing season through asynchronous hatching (i.e., within‐season bet hedging). Across clones, hatching fractions were higher and hatching occurred faster at low salinities, whereas hatching was delayed or even inhibited at higher salinities. Such a peaked response suggests that salinity is a reliable cue of favorable future conditions. Moreover, clones showed intermediate hatching fractions, indicative of bet hedging. Clones with higher hatching fractions also showed more asynchronous hatching, indicating potential functional redundancy between among‐season and within‐season bet hedging. Additionally, clones exhibiting stronger plastic responses showed higher hatching fractions, supporting the interpretation of phenotypic plasticity and bet hedging as alternative yet potentially co‐occurring adaptive responses. Finally, plasticity was greater in clones originating from predictable habitats, whereas bet‐hedging traits were stronger in clones from less predictable environments. Overall, these findings highlight how the reliability of environmental cues can shape the evolution of combined adaptive responses in fluctuating environments.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147470857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Multiple factors influence temporal species turnover, including resource requirements and species traits. The standard model in plant ecology is that adding soil nutrients will result in taller communities, reducing understory light levels and leading to species loss via size‐asymmetric competition. However, underlying this model is the notion that competitive dynamics are outcomes of individual species characteristics rather than an emergent trait of the suite of species involved in the interactions. Thus, whether plant social context (identities and interactions of neighbors) impacts competitive outcomes is unclear and potentially overlooked. Using data from a three‐year field study manipulating light and soil resources, we asked how resource manipulations, community diversity, or structural (physiological) and social (interactions with neighbors) traits influenced species turnover. We created co‐occurrence networks to develop novel metrics that capture the prevalence of positive and negative associations for each of 24 species in a native grassland community. We then estimated temporal beta diversity to partition species turnover into gains and losses, testing whether these compositional changes were impacted by resource manipulations or communities' structural or social traits. We found evidence that resources, structural traits, and social traits all impacted aspects of community assembly. Nutrient addition but not reduced light increased species losses, and communities with either high or low specific leaf area (SLA) and root tissue density (RTD) community‐weighted mean (CWM) trait values gained more species. Communities consisting of species forming numerous positive species co‐occurrences gained fewer species throughout the study than communities of species forming fewer positive co‐occurrences. Thus, a species' tendency to form positive co‐occurrences has a functional consequence for community‐level compositional stability. Resource addition increased species losses independently of CWM height, suggesting it was not size‐asymmetric competition for light that resulted in species loss in our study. Together, these results challenge the notion that nutrient‐driven species loss is primarily mediated by size‐asymmetric competition, highlighting the role of species' social interactions in governing community change.
{"title":"Social and structural traits influence species gains while resources influence species losses in a native grassland","authors":"Emily M. Holden, James F. Cahill","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70347","url":null,"abstract":"Multiple factors influence temporal species turnover, including resource requirements and species traits. The standard model in plant ecology is that adding soil nutrients will result in taller communities, reducing understory light levels and leading to species loss via size‐asymmetric competition. However, underlying this model is the notion that competitive dynamics are outcomes of individual species characteristics rather than an emergent trait of the suite of species involved in the interactions. Thus, whether plant social context (identities and interactions of neighbors) impacts competitive outcomes is unclear and potentially overlooked. Using data from a three‐year field study manipulating light and soil resources, we asked how resource manipulations, community diversity, or structural (physiological) and social (interactions with neighbors) traits influenced species turnover. We created co‐occurrence networks to develop novel metrics that capture the prevalence of positive and negative associations for each of 24 species in a native grassland community. We then estimated temporal beta diversity to partition species turnover into gains and losses, testing whether these compositional changes were impacted by resource manipulations or communities' structural or social traits. We found evidence that resources, structural traits, and social traits all impacted aspects of community assembly. Nutrient addition but not reduced light increased species losses, and communities with either high or low specific leaf area (SLA) and root tissue density (RTD) community‐weighted mean (CWM) trait values gained more species. Communities consisting of species forming numerous positive species co‐occurrences gained fewer species throughout the study than communities of species forming fewer positive co‐occurrences. Thus, a species' tendency to form positive co‐occurrences has a functional consequence for community‐level compositional stability. Resource addition increased species losses independently of CWM height, suggesting it was not size‐asymmetric competition for light that resulted in species loss in our study. Together, these results challenge the notion that nutrient‐driven species loss is primarily mediated by size‐asymmetric competition, highlighting the role of species' social interactions in governing community change.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"93 1","pages":"e70347"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147447606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emma M Foster,Jason J Dombroskie,Christopher A Halsch,Thomas H Q Powell,Eliza M Grames
In temperate ecosystems, warming temperatures can advance spring phenology, extend autumn phenology, disrupt dormancy regulation, result in phenological mismatch across taxa, and even lead to increases in the number of generations per year (i.e., increases in voltinism). Much of what we know about the impacts of global change on species phenology and voltinism comes from recent decades; however, anthropogenic warming began centuries ago. Using light trap datasets from 1889-1892 and 1919-1922, alongside contemporary records, we document long-term changes in phenology and voltinism for 78 moth species, and changes in occurrence for 169 species, in New York, USA. From 1919-1922 to 2019-2024, we found an advance in spring phenology by 0.55 days per decade and an extension of the end of the flight period by 1.18 days per decade. This shift was largely driven by bi- and multivoltine species, which have added generations extending the end of their flight period by 1.58 days per decade compared to an extension of only 0.49 days per decade for univoltine species. We also document the apparent disappearance of 13 species from the region from 1889 to present, whose ranges now tend to be farther north and at higher elevations, possibly due to global change. As this region becomes warmer and wetter with ongoing climate change, more species may extend their active period or add more generations per year, with the potential for rapid adaptation and consequences for ecosystem function as some insect herbivores become more abundant.
{"title":"Phenological shifts and increases in voltinism within a moth community over a century of anthropogenic change.","authors":"Emma M Foster,Jason J Dombroskie,Christopher A Halsch,Thomas H Q Powell,Eliza M Grames","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70328","url":null,"abstract":"In temperate ecosystems, warming temperatures can advance spring phenology, extend autumn phenology, disrupt dormancy regulation, result in phenological mismatch across taxa, and even lead to increases in the number of generations per year (i.e., increases in voltinism). Much of what we know about the impacts of global change on species phenology and voltinism comes from recent decades; however, anthropogenic warming began centuries ago. Using light trap datasets from 1889-1892 and 1919-1922, alongside contemporary records, we document long-term changes in phenology and voltinism for 78 moth species, and changes in occurrence for 169 species, in New York, USA. From 1919-1922 to 2019-2024, we found an advance in spring phenology by 0.55 days per decade and an extension of the end of the flight period by 1.18 days per decade. This shift was largely driven by bi- and multivoltine species, which have added generations extending the end of their flight period by 1.58 days per decade compared to an extension of only 0.49 days per decade for univoltine species. We also document the apparent disappearance of 13 species from the region from 1889 to present, whose ranges now tend to be farther north and at higher elevations, possibly due to global change. As this region becomes warmer and wetter with ongoing climate change, more species may extend their active period or add more generations per year, with the potential for rapid adaptation and consequences for ecosystem function as some insect herbivores become more abundant.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"67 1","pages":"e70328"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russell W Perry,Adam C Pope,A Noble Hendrix,Joseph E Kirsch,Bryan G Matthias,Michael J Dodrill
Removal sampling is an important method for estimating abundance, but nearly all removal models assume closure during sampling. Yet, closure may be difficult to assume, evaluate, or enforce in many settings. To address situations where populations are geographically open between each removal sample, we incorporated a Markovian availability process into an N-mixture model framework. This model relates local abundance available for sampling to a superpopulation through recruitment of new individuals to the sampling area. To test the model, we (1) conducted parameter identifiability analysis, (2) fit the model to removal data generated from a random walk movement model, and (3) analyzed a case study of empirical removal data. Parameters were increasingly identifiable as capture probability exceeded 0.25 and removal samples increased from 3 to 6. Abundance estimates were unbiased when parameters were identifiable, except for scenarios that simulated a behavioral response to sampling. For our case study, the model estimated negligible recruitment for benthic-oriented fishes, indicating closure, but we found evidence against closure for juvenile Chinook salmon, a highly mobile species. Our removal model allows researchers to formally test closure assumptions, to estimate the degree of closure, and to estimate abundance without bias when closure is violated.
{"title":"Who needs closure? Estimating abundance with a Markovian availability model for geographically open removal sampling.","authors":"Russell W Perry,Adam C Pope,A Noble Hendrix,Joseph E Kirsch,Bryan G Matthias,Michael J Dodrill","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70289","url":null,"abstract":"Removal sampling is an important method for estimating abundance, but nearly all removal models assume closure during sampling. Yet, closure may be difficult to assume, evaluate, or enforce in many settings. To address situations where populations are geographically open between each removal sample, we incorporated a Markovian availability process into an N-mixture model framework. This model relates local abundance available for sampling to a superpopulation through recruitment of new individuals to the sampling area. To test the model, we (1) conducted parameter identifiability analysis, (2) fit the model to removal data generated from a random walk movement model, and (3) analyzed a case study of empirical removal data. Parameters were increasingly identifiable as capture probability exceeded 0.25 and removal samples increased from 3 to 6. Abundance estimates were unbiased when parameters were identifiable, except for scenarios that simulated a behavioral response to sampling. For our case study, the model estimated negligible recruitment for benthic-oriented fishes, indicating closure, but we found evidence against closure for juvenile Chinook salmon, a highly mobile species. Our removal model allows researchers to formally test closure assumptions, to estimate the degree of closure, and to estimate abundance without bias when closure is violated.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"198 1","pages":"e70289"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Seed dispersal by cockroaches and crickets in a non-photosynthetic plant with fermented scents.","authors":"Kenji Suetsugu,Satoshi Kakishima,Yudai Okuyama","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70321","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"1 1","pages":"e70321"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qiang Yang,Wim H van der Putten,Freddy C Ten Hooven,Jeffrey A Harvey,G F Veen
Plant species are responding to anthropogenic climate change by expanding their distributions to higher latitudes and altitudes. This is generating novel communities consisting of a mixture of range-expanding and native plant species. These communities are increasingly subject to extreme droughts and are shaped by herbivory. How drought and herbivores interact to impact biomass production and plant recovery from drought is, however, poorly understood. Here, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to study how grazing by grasshoppers affected biomass production and plant survival of mixed plant communities, that is, consisting of native and range-expanding plant species, under summer drought. Before the summer drought, we exposed mixed plant communities to a 2-week period of feeding by a local meadow grasshopper and had a control without grasshoppers. Communities were grown in soils from the new (Northern) and original range (Southern) of the range-expanding plants and were pre-conditioned by either native or range-expanding plant communities. We show that grasshopper feeding reduced plant biomass loss to drought and enhanced the capacity of plants to recover from drought, both in terms of biomass production and survival. Grasshopper feeding increased the biomass of range-expanders relative to natives, independent of summer drought. In general, soil origin and previous soil conditioning by range-expanding versus native plants did not modify the effects of grasshoppers. We conclude that aboveground herbivory by grasshoppers affects responses of mixed plant communities to drought, increasing both plant community resistance and resilience to drought.
{"title":"Insect herbivores reduce plant biomass loss and enhance plant recovery in response to extreme drought.","authors":"Qiang Yang,Wim H van der Putten,Freddy C Ten Hooven,Jeffrey A Harvey,G F Veen","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70329","url":null,"abstract":"Plant species are responding to anthropogenic climate change by expanding their distributions to higher latitudes and altitudes. This is generating novel communities consisting of a mixture of range-expanding and native plant species. These communities are increasingly subject to extreme droughts and are shaped by herbivory. How drought and herbivores interact to impact biomass production and plant recovery from drought is, however, poorly understood. Here, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to study how grazing by grasshoppers affected biomass production and plant survival of mixed plant communities, that is, consisting of native and range-expanding plant species, under summer drought. Before the summer drought, we exposed mixed plant communities to a 2-week period of feeding by a local meadow grasshopper and had a control without grasshoppers. Communities were grown in soils from the new (Northern) and original range (Southern) of the range-expanding plants and were pre-conditioned by either native or range-expanding plant communities. We show that grasshopper feeding reduced plant biomass loss to drought and enhanced the capacity of plants to recover from drought, both in terms of biomass production and survival. Grasshopper feeding increased the biomass of range-expanders relative to natives, independent of summer drought. In general, soil origin and previous soil conditioning by range-expanding versus native plants did not modify the effects of grasshoppers. We conclude that aboveground herbivory by grasshoppers affects responses of mixed plant communities to drought, increasing both plant community resistance and resilience to drought.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"264 1","pages":"e70329"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The multifaceted impacts of global climate change on biota challenge our understanding and capability of anticipating the long-term viability of wild populations, which is an emergent property of ecological systems. Using Bayesian integrated population modeling, sensitivity analyses, and ecological forecasting, we investigate how climate variability shapes the long-term population dynamics of a species highly sensitive to climate change: the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). Leveraging a multi-decadal database from Pointe Géologie, East Antarctica, we assess penguin sensitivity to multiple environmental drivers and produce anticipatory projections of the emerging population trajectories under the noise of forecasted climatic changes. We found that receding fast ice during chick-rearing, leading to reduced commuting distances to open water, improves breeding success. Conversely, ocean warming and stronger winds negatively impact adult survival, possibly due to changes in Antarctic marine productivity. These contrasting effects of ocean warming and sea ice contractions on adult survival and breeding success, the most important contributors to the realized population growth rate, indicate opposing effects of climate change on penguins. Using forecasts, we explored how these opposing forces will jointly determine long-term emperor penguin population dynamics. We found that the increased breeding success linked to reductions in fast ice may buffer and delay population declines by over a decade. However, ocean warming and its likely repercussions to the food web and adult survival will ultimately drive population declines. While forecasting is well established in climate science, ecological forecasting faces distinct challenges, including shorter and less defined predictability horizons, greater stochasticity, and limited long-term data. Yet, forecasts can be used to understand and anticipate population responses, which is particularly valuable, given the urgent need to define proactive conservation plans. Here, forecasts reveal contrasting demographic impacts of sea ice loss and ocean warming on emperor penguins. Our approach, adaptable to other species and systems, highlights the value of anticipatory projections for disentangling and quantifying drivers of long-term population change.
{"title":"Ecological forecasts highlight opposing effects of long-term climate change on population demography.","authors":"Francesco Ventura,Bilgecan Sen,Christian Che-Castaldo,Christophe Barbraud,Karine Delord,Kristen Krumhardt,Marika Holland,Laura Landrum,Zephyr Sylvester,Paul Lukacs,Stéphanie Jenouvrier","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70330","url":null,"abstract":"The multifaceted impacts of global climate change on biota challenge our understanding and capability of anticipating the long-term viability of wild populations, which is an emergent property of ecological systems. Using Bayesian integrated population modeling, sensitivity analyses, and ecological forecasting, we investigate how climate variability shapes the long-term population dynamics of a species highly sensitive to climate change: the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). Leveraging a multi-decadal database from Pointe Géologie, East Antarctica, we assess penguin sensitivity to multiple environmental drivers and produce anticipatory projections of the emerging population trajectories under the noise of forecasted climatic changes. We found that receding fast ice during chick-rearing, leading to reduced commuting distances to open water, improves breeding success. Conversely, ocean warming and stronger winds negatively impact adult survival, possibly due to changes in Antarctic marine productivity. These contrasting effects of ocean warming and sea ice contractions on adult survival and breeding success, the most important contributors to the realized population growth rate, indicate opposing effects of climate change on penguins. Using forecasts, we explored how these opposing forces will jointly determine long-term emperor penguin population dynamics. We found that the increased breeding success linked to reductions in fast ice may buffer and delay population declines by over a decade. However, ocean warming and its likely repercussions to the food web and adult survival will ultimately drive population declines. While forecasting is well established in climate science, ecological forecasting faces distinct challenges, including shorter and less defined predictability horizons, greater stochasticity, and limited long-term data. Yet, forecasts can be used to understand and anticipate population responses, which is particularly valuable, given the urgent need to define proactive conservation plans. Here, forecasts reveal contrasting demographic impacts of sea ice loss and ocean warming on emperor penguins. Our approach, adaptable to other species and systems, highlights the value of anticipatory projections for disentangling and quantifying drivers of long-term population change.","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"1 1","pages":"e70330"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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