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Spatial-Rating Assessment of Entrepreneurial Performance in Industrial Parks of Russian Regions 俄罗斯地区工业园区创业绩效的空间分级评价
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-17
E. Piskun, K. B. Brusnikin
Analysis of statistics at the micro-level shows that the development trends of a large number of resident entrepreneurial structures of industrial parks are characterised by adverse dynamics. Accordingly, assessment of the performance of entrepreneurial structures and improvement of their management models in the general system of industrial parks become more relevant. This paper presents a methodological approach to the construction of a spatial-rating assessment of the performance of entrepreneurial structures in the system of industrial parks functioning. As a result, two groups of Russian regions were identified, among which a potential resident, when making a decision on the placement of production facilities, can choose a region taking into account its investment attractiveness and industrial activity. Two discriminant groups of industrial parks were determined, the condition of which can be defined as economically inefficient and efficient, by evaluating parks with low and high values of the park rating level in terms of attractiveness for external investors and resident entrepreneurial structures. The proposed methodological approach can be applied to improve the quality of decisions on the formation of differentiated strategies for sustainable development of both individual entrepreneurial structures in the system of industrial parks and their clusters, and regions as a whole. It is recommended for both enterprises and industrial parks when making decisions on the formation of strategies and development scenarios, as well as for federal and regional authorities when designing documents for the territorial development on the strategic and tactical level.
微观层面的统计分析表明,大量工业园区居民创业结构的发展趋势具有不利动态的特征。因此,在工业园区总体系统中对企业结构的绩效评价和管理模式的改进就显得更为重要。本文提出了一种方法方法来构建工业园区功能系统中企业结构绩效的空间等级评价。因此,确定了两组俄罗斯地区,其中潜在居民在决定生产设施的位置时,可以根据其投资吸引力和工业活动来选择一个地区。通过对园区对外部投资者吸引力和居民创业结构的评价,确定了经济效率低下和经济效率高的两类判别型园区。所提出的方法方法可用于提高工业园区及其集群系统中个体企业结构和整个区域可持续发展差异化战略形成决策的质量。建议企业和工业园区在制定战略和发展方案时,以及联邦和地区当局在设计战略和战术层面的领土发展文件时使用。
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引用次数: 1
Improving the Stability of power Supply in Regions on the Basis of Smart Local Energy Systems 基于智能局部能源系统提高区域供电稳定性
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-13
F. Byk, L. Myshkina, M. Kozhevnikov
A modern organisational and technological structure of the energy sector emerged due to the development of distributed energy improving the reliability, efficiency and environmental friendliness of regional power supply systems. The study aims to substantiate the economic benefits of integrating smart local energy systems (SLES) based on distributed energy into regional power supply systems. Using heu-ristic and theoretical methods, the article explores the genesis of SLES and reveals factors that spur their development in regions. Analysis of empirical data from the implemented SLES projects revealed the ac-celerating pace of adoption of distributed energy by various regional economic sectors, allowing us to esti-mate the effects. Municipal smart local energy systems have a priority over those in agriculture and man-ufacturing, since their integration generates systemic effects significant for the region. These effects in-clude increased availability of energy at socially acceptable prices, reduced cross-subsidisation, flexible energy supply through the use of smart technology, and better conditions for small and medium-sized en-terprises. A key factor limiting the implementation of SLES projects is an underdeveloped institutional en-vironment, which could be improved by changing the current rules of the wholesale and retail markets of electricity and capacity. In particular, it might be expedient to include SLES in regional energy systems in order to justify changes in the regulatory framework. The paper presents a comprehensive examination of the properties and characteristics of smart local energy systems and suggests ways to obtain useful eco-nomic effects in the development of regional power supply systems. As for the practical value, the research emphasises the appeal of SLES to investment companies and outlines conditions for a region’s sustaina-ble development.
由于分布式能源的发展,提高了区域供电系统的可靠性、效率和环境友好性,能源部门的现代组织和技术结构出现了。本研究旨在验证将基于分布式能源的智能局部能源系统(SLES)集成到区域供电系统中的经济效益。本文运用实证分析和理论分析的方法,探讨了区域经济发展的成因,揭示了促进区域经济发展的因素。对已实施的SLES项目的经验数据的分析显示,各个区域经济部门采用分布式能源的速度正在加快,这使我们能够估计其影响。市政智能本地能源系统优先于农业和制造业,因为它们的整合会对该地区产生重大的系统性影响。这些影响包括以社会可接受的价格增加能源供应,减少交叉补贴,通过使用智能技术实现灵活的能源供应,以及改善中小企业的条件。限制SLES项目实施的一个关键因素是体制环境不发达,这可以通过改变电力和容量批发和零售市场的现行规则来改善。特别是,在区域能源系统中包括SLES可能是一种权宜之计,以便证明改变管理框架是合理的。本文全面分析了智能局部能源系统的特性和特点,并提出了在区域供电系统发展中获得有益经济效益的途径。在实践价值方面,研究强调了SLES对投资公司的吸引力,并概述了区域可持续发展的条件。
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引用次数: 1
Modelling of Regional Economic Management in Conditions of Mass Diseases 群体性疾病条件下的区域经济管理模型
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-1
. И.В.ЛутошкинiD, М. С. Рыбина, . IgorV.LutoshkiniD, Maria S. Rybina
Economic globalisation, logistics intensification, world population growth and increasing mobility lead to the emergence of mass diseases, determining the behaviour of various economic agents. The article offers a new tool for analysing regional economic management in conditions of mass diseases, which combines both socio-biological and economic factors in one economic and mathematical model. The proposed model is based on the description of disease dynamics among various population groups (SIR or SIER compartmental models) and corresponding socio-economic changes. Investments in the improvement of hospital beds, in the construction of new hospitals, and in information campaigns to combat the disease are considered as control actions on the economic system. Thus, the regional management system can apply this tool to quantify and compare possible management decisions, taking into account the mutual influence of biological and socio-economic factors. Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology were analysed in order to construct the tool and assess its parameters by the methods of regression correlation analysis, simulation modelling, and numerical analysis of the differential equation system. In particular, statistical information on the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and Ulyanovsk oblast for 2020 was examined during the research. The developed software package was utilised to model the presence or absence of restrictive measures during the reviewed period; then, a comparative analysis of these strategies was conducted. The described tool can be adapted to assess the management strategies of various economic agents. It can be further supplemented with quality criteria and appropriate algorithms for selecting optimal strategies to manage regional economy in conditions of mass diseases.
经济全球化、物流集约化、世界人口增长和流动性增加导致大规模疾病的出现,决定了各种经济主体的行为。本文将社会生物学和经济因素结合在一个经济和数学模型中,为分析群体性疾病条件下的区域经济管理提供了一种新的工具。提出的模型是基于对不同人群之间疾病动态的描述(SIR或SIER分区模型)和相应的社会经济变化。在改善医院床位、建设新医院和开展防治疾病的宣传运动方面的投资被视为对经济系统的控制行动。因此,区域管理系统可以应用这一工具来量化和比较可能的管理决策,同时考虑到生物和社会经济因素的相互影响。采用回归相关分析、模拟建模和微分方程组数值分析等方法,分析了种群生物学和流行病学的数学模型,构建了该工具并对其参数进行了评估。研究期间特别审查了2020年俄罗斯和乌里扬诺夫斯克州2019冠状病毒病大流行的统计信息。已开发的软件包用于模拟审查期间是否存在限制措施;然后,对这些策略进行了比较分析。所描述的工具可以用来评估各种经济主体的管理策略。它可以进一步补充质量标准和适当的算法,以选择在群体性疾病条件下管理区域经济的最佳策略。
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引用次数: 0
Cluster Assessment of European Countries in Terms of Digitalisation and Sustainable Development 欧洲国家数字化与可持续发展的聚类评估
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-1
Z. Belyaeva, Y. Lopatkova
The world economic development nowadays is characterised by the significance of digital in-novations and sustainable development in all areas of production and management. However, the exist-ing literature still cannot explain how environmental, economic and social factors of sustainable develop-ment corresponding to these innovations affect the new global ecosystem, based on the introduction and adaptation of digital technologies and achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the national level. The article presents the results of the authors’ assessment and classification of countries according to the achievement of the SDGs and implementation of digital innovations in the national and global economy. The empirical analysis utilises the data on the digitalisation performance in-dicators of the Global Innovation Index (GII) and the Sustainable Development Goals Index (SDG Index). The country assessment matrix was classified in terms of digitalisation and sustainable development and tested on a sample of European countries. Cluster analysis of 39 European countries identified four homo-geneous clusters, which have distinctive systemic characteristics: advanced countries, catching-up coun-tries, locomotive countries and leaders in sustainable and digital development. The identified clusters ex-pand the possibilities for substantiating socio-economic and technological strategies at the country — re-gion — industry level. Russia is revealed as one of the eleven catching-up countries. The paper specifies the directions of the strategy to achieve the target digitalisation and sustainable development in the pro-cess of integration of the SDGs into national indicators. The proposed assessment can be used to adjust the state policy for the co-development of digital innovations and sustainable development indicators.
当今世界经济发展的特点是数字化创新和可持续发展在生产和管理的各个领域的重要性。然而,现有文献仍然无法解释基于数字技术的引入和适应以及国家层面联合国可持续发展目标(sdg)的实现,与这些创新相对应的可持续发展的环境、经济和社会因素如何影响新的全球生态系统。本文介绍了作者根据可持续发展目标的实现情况和数字创新在国家和全球经济中的实施情况对各国进行评估和分类的结果。实证分析利用了全球创新指数(GII)和可持续发展目标指数(SDG指数)的数字化绩效指标数据。国家评估矩阵根据数字化和可持续发展进行分类,并在欧洲国家样本上进行了测试。对39个欧洲国家的聚类分析发现,发达国家、追赶国家、火车头国家和可持续发展和数字化发展的领导者这四个同质集群具有鲜明的系统特征。确定的集群扩大了在国家-区域-工业一级实现社会经济和技术战略的可能性。俄罗斯是11个正在追赶的国家之一。本文明确了在将可持续发展目标纳入国家指标的过程中实现数字化和可持续发展目标的战略方向。所提出的评估可用于调整国家政策,以促进数字创新和可持续发展指标的共同发展。
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引用次数: 0
Tax System Reform as a Challenge to Economic Reform: A Case Study of Jordan 税制改革对经济改革的挑战:以约旦为例
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-21
Sanaa Maswadeh
Governments care about the tax system and pay attention to it not as a tool for collecting money, but rather as a tool of economic reform, so that taxes achieve their financial, economic and social goals, and then achieve tax justice and protect the poor and middle class. Thus, this study came to investigate the effect of the tax revenue structure in Jordan on economics reform indicators (per individual income growth rate, public debt, openness trade, and inflation) as a challenge to the economic reform. The study population consists of the public sector of the ministries and public sector departments responsible for preparing the general budget and the Jordanian Department of Statistics, with the aim of relying on data issued by them during the time period 1990-2019. Multiple regression models were used to study hypotheses. The research results showed that direct tax (income and profits tax) in Jordan did not significantly affect the economic reform indicators, while there was a negative significant impact at a significance level (á ≤ 0.05) of sales tax on the economic reform indicators. Additionally, the study found that there is no significant effect of indirect taxes (property tax and foreign trade) on economic indicators relative to GDP represented in per individual income growth rate, public debt, and inflation. Among the recommendations of the study is that Jordan must develop the country’s public revenues from its own resources in order to reduce dependence on foreign debt.
政府对税收制度的关心和重视,不是把它作为收税的工具,而是把它作为经济改革的工具,使税收实现其财政、经济和社会目标,从而实现税收公正,保护穷人和中产阶级。因此,本研究旨在探讨约旦税收结构对经济改革指标(人均收入增长率、公共债务、开放贸易和通货膨胀)的影响,作为对经济改革的挑战。研究对象包括负责编制总预算的部委和公共部门部门以及约旦统计局的公共部门,目的是依靠它们在1990-2019年期间发布的数据。采用多元回归模型对假设进行研究。研究结果表明,约旦直接税(所得税和利得税)对经济改革指标的影响不显著,而销售税对经济改革指标的影响在显著性水平(≤0.05)上呈显著负向。此外,研究发现间接税(财产税和外贸)对相对于人均收入增长率、公共债务和通货膨胀所代表的GDP的经济指标没有显著影响。研究报告的建议之一是,约旦必须利用本国资源发展国家的公共收入,以减少对外债的依赖。
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引用次数: 0
Typology of Russian Regional Systems in Connection with the Decarbonisation of the Economy 俄罗斯区域系统与经济脱碳的类型学
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-3
D. Gainanov, R. Gataullin, R. Safiullin
The Paris Agreement on climate change was adopted on December 12, 2015 by 197 states. Despite mutual sanctions between Russia and a group of countries led by the United States, the agree-ment remains in force. Since sanctions negatively affect the dynamics of the global economy, they cannot be perpetually imposed. Therefore, the state should be ready for any changes in foreign economic relations, including the lifting of sanctions and, in particular, fulfilment of the requirements of the Paris Agreement. To decarbonise the economy, regions have to take effective action and thoroughly assess the future work. The influence of the emission factor in each region is determined by the scale and structure of the econ-omy. The study presents a typology of regions based on the scale of production, functional localisation, vol-ume and structure of exports to non-CIS countries, volume and structure of exports by economic sectors subject to environmental taxation by the European Union and members of the Paris Agreement. Industrial regions, being major exporters of fuel and energy, chemistry and petrochemistry, metals, agricultural pro-duction, are more dependent on decarbonisation. Economically underdeveloped regions, such as Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Tyva, Chechnya and Jewish Autonomous Oblast, do not actively participate in the international division of labour and, consequently, do not depend on decarbonisation processes. Thus, the territorial differentiation of Russian regional systems should be considered when implementing socio-economic strategies, which take into account decarbonisation pro-cesses. Introduction of international hydrocarbon regulation by the European Union and transition to envi-ronmentally friendly technologies for the production of goods and services will require the territorial and structural transformation of regional economic systems.
2015年12月12日,197个国家通过了《巴黎气候变化协定》。尽管俄罗斯和以美国为首的一些国家相互制裁,但该协议仍然有效。由于制裁对全球经济的动态产生消极影响,因此不可能永远实施制裁。因此,国家应该为对外经济关系的任何变化做好准备,包括取消制裁,特别是履行《巴黎协定》的要求。为了使经济脱碳,各地区必须采取有效行动,并彻底评估未来的工作。各区域排放因子的影响是由经济的规模和结构决定的。该研究根据生产规模、功能本地化、向非独联体国家出口的数量和结构、由欧盟和《巴黎协定》成员国征收环境税的经济部门的出口数量和结构,提出了一种区域类型。工业地区是燃料和能源、化学和石化、金属、农业生产的主要出口国,它们更依赖于脱碳。达吉斯坦、印古什、卡巴尔达-巴尔卡里亚、卡尔梅克、卡拉恰伊-切尔克斯、特瓦、车臣和犹太自治州等经济不发达地区没有积极参与国际劳动分工,因此不依赖于脱碳进程。因此,在实施考虑到脱碳进程的社会经济战略时,应考虑俄罗斯区域系统的地域差异。欧洲联盟实行国际碳氢化合物管制和向生产货物和服务的环境友好技术过渡将要求区域经济制度的领土和结构改革。
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引用次数: 1
Global Production Networks in the Regional Analysis Framework: Case of the EU Peripheral Automotive Manufacturing 区域分析框架下的全球生产网络:以欧盟周边汽车制造业为例
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-18
G. H. González, E. Sapir, A. Vasilchenko
Recent transformations following the global financial crisis of 2009, COVID-19 pandemic, supply chains disruptions and newest shocks have radically reshaped global production landscape and challenged comparative benefits of global production networks (GPN) vs global value chains (GVC) paradigms in international production analysis. The study tests the hypothesis that GPN concept allows for a better identification of structural shifts in international production structures while revealing regional patterns of cooperation. In the first section, the main methodological constraints of GVC paradigm are specified. Additionally, the reasons for the application of network-based approach to international production are outlined. The second section dissects the EU automotive manufacturing to support the theoretical propositions. While comparing GVC and GPN quantitative toolkits, the possible trade-off has been reached which is to calculate network indicators (transitivity, centrality, etc.) on the inter-country input-output tables. As a result, the hypothesis was confirmed. Specifically, betweenness centrality metric suggests that Czechia and Slovakia have immediately favoured a positive effect of the entry into the EU, whereas neither of GVC indicators reveals such a shift. Simultaneously, 2008 crisis is depicted via GVC indicators, whilst network metrics suggest no structural changes in the production system. These results corroborate to our theoretical juxtaposition of GVC/GPN approaches. The methodological cohesion of two sets of indicators further advances the views on European regional coreperiphery integration and automotive production networks dynamics. At the same time, the findings may contribute to the reassessment of regional integration developments in Europe, as well as in Latin America and Eurasia.
2009年全球金融危机、2019冠状病毒肺炎大流行、供应链中断和最新冲击之后的近期变革从根本上重塑了全球生产格局,并对国际生产分析中全球生产网络(GPN)与全球价值链(GVC)范式的比较效益提出了挑战。该研究验证了GPN概念可以更好地识别国际生产结构的结构变化,同时揭示区域合作模式的假设。在第一部分中,详细说明了全球价值链范式的主要方法约束。此外,还概述了将基于网络的方法应用于国际生产的原因。第二部分对欧盟汽车制造业进行剖析,为理论命题提供支撑。在比较全球价值链和全球网络的量化工具包时,可能会达成折衷,即在国家间投入产出表上计算网络指标(传递性、中心性等)。结果,这一假设得到了证实。具体而言,中间性中心指标表明捷克和斯洛伐克立即赞成加入欧盟的积极影响,而全球价值链指标都没有显示出这种转变。同时,2008年的危机是通过全球价值链指标来描述的,而网络指标表明生产系统没有结构性变化。这些结果证实了我们对GVC/GPN方法的理论并置。两组指标的方法衔接进一步推进了对欧洲区域核心-外围一体化和汽车生产网络动态的看法。同时,研究结果可能有助于重新评估欧洲以及拉丁美洲和欧亚大陆的区域一体化发展。
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引用次数: 0
Socio-Economic Determinants of Tobacco Consumption in Russian Regions 俄罗斯地区烟草消费的社会经济决定因素
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-6
С. В. Дорошенко, О. В. Санаева, . SvetlanaV.DoroshenkoiD, O. Sanaeva
Nowadays, it is necessary to analyse the influence of various socio-economic factors on the regional heterogeneity of tobacco consumption in Russia, since there is a lack of econometric studies based on regional data. The present study aims to assess the impact of financial, economic and educational factors on tobacco consumption in Russian regions. To this end, a simultaneous quantile regression approach, resistant to outliers, was applied to separately estimate the influence of the above factors on regions classified as light and heavy smokers. Panel data on 82 Russian regions for the period 2005-2019 was examined. The dependent variable is the percentage of household expenditures on tobacco obtained from a sample survey of household budgets. The main independent variables are education, income, unemployment, loan debt. Control variables include alcohol consumption, male-to-female ratio, divorce rate, proportion of the rural population, binary variables. The invariance of the impact of factors relative to the percentiles of regions was revealed. The greatest differences are observed between light and heavy smokers regions (q10 and q90 groups). Individual loan debts, average per capita income, alcohol consumption, increase in excise tax, divorces and emergence of e-cigarettes are significant for regions with low tobacco consumption and insignificant for regions with high consumption. High consumption regions are greatly influenced by the male-to-female ratio, number of graduates of secondary vocational institutions and proportion of the rural population. Such factors as higher education, crises and anti-tobacco laws are significant for each quintile. The results can be used to improve state policy measures to reduce the consumption of nicotine products. The study is limited by the lack of regional data in terms of age and gender.
目前,由于缺乏基于区域数据的计量经济学研究,有必要分析各种社会经济因素对俄罗斯烟草消费区域异质性的影响。本研究旨在评估金融、经济和教育因素对俄罗斯地区烟草消费的影响。为此,采用不受异常值影响的同步分位数回归方法,分别估计上述因素对轻度和重度吸烟地区的影响。研究了2005-2019年期间俄罗斯82个地区的小组数据。因变量是从家庭预算抽样调查中获得的家庭烟草支出的百分比。主要的自变量是教育、收入、失业、贷款债务。控制变量包括饮酒量、男女比例、离婚率、农村人口比例、二元变量。揭示了各因素影响相对于区域百分位数的不变性。在轻度和重度吸烟者之间观察到最大的差异(q10组和q90组)。个人贷款债务、人均收入、酒精消费、消费税增加、离婚和电子烟的出现在烟草消费低的地区显著,在烟草消费高的地区不显著。高消费地区受男女比例、中等职业院校毕业生数量和农村人口比例的影响较大。高等教育、危机和反烟草法律等因素对每一个五分位数都很重要。研究结果可用于完善国家减少尼古丁产品消费的政策措施。由于缺乏年龄和性别方面的区域数据,这项研究受到限制。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable Development in Regional Strategies: Approaches and Solutions 区域战略中的可持续发展:方法和解决方案
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-2
I. Korshunov
The adoption of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development by the Russian Federation in 2016 requires the introduction of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into na-tional strategies and policies. As most SDGs are already included in the main strategic planning documents, regional development strategies should be changed accordingly. This emerging practice of regional stra-tegic planning needs to be carefully studied. Based on the analysis of socio-economic strategies of eleven Russian regions included in the Northwestern Federal District, the present study shows the incorporation of the SDGs into regional strategic plans. The findings lead to the following conclusions. The implementa-tion of the SDGs in regional strategies is extremely heterogeneous, ranging from complete abstraction to their recognition as key development benchmarks. However, even the regions, which expressed the inten-tion to follow the UN Agenda in their strategies, did not establish clear plans for its implementation. The economic component of sustainable development is considered a priority, while social and environmen-tal components are underestimated, indicating that sustainable economic growth and related goals are seen as the main direction of regional development. Thus, sustainable development is yet to be achieved in the context determined by the UN Agenda and government strategic planning documents. It is necessary to further examine each region’s motivation for the introduction of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development into regional strategies. Government and administrative bodies can use the research find-ings to improve approaches to strategic planning and management of the development of Russia and its regions.
俄罗斯联邦在2016年通过了《联合国2030年可持续发展议程》,这就要求将联合国可持续发展目标纳入国家战略和政策。由于大多数可持续发展目标已被纳入主要战略规划文件,区域发展战略应相应改变。这种新兴的区域战略规划实践需要仔细研究。本研究通过对俄罗斯西北联邦区11个地区的社会经济战略分析,表明可持续发展目标已纳入地区战略规划。研究结果得出以下结论。在区域战略中实施可持续发展目标的情况极不相同,从完全抽象到将其视为关键的发展基准。然而,即使是在其战略中表示愿意遵循联合国议程的地区,也没有制定明确的实施计划。可持续发展的经济组成部分被认为是优先事项,而社会和环境组成部分被低估,这表明可持续经济增长和有关目标被视为区域发展的主要方向。因此,在联合国议程和政府战略规划文件确定的背景下,可持续发展尚未实现。有必要进一步研究各地区将联合国2030年可持续发展议程纳入区域战略的动机。政府和行政机构可以利用研究结果来改进俄罗斯及其地区发展的战略规划和管理方法。
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引用次数: 1
Methodology for Selecting Regions to Study the Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change 农业适应气候变化研究的区域选择方法
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-14
Н. М. Светлов, Nikolai M. Svetlov, Nikolai M. Svetlov — Dr
The impact of climate change on the social and institutional conditions of agriculture (as opposed to technological ones) in Russia has hardly been studied. With a limited budget, such research should examine a small sample of regions. To reduce the subjectivity, a formalised methodology for creating and ranking small samples of regions was developed. While occupying the largest possible share in the country’s gross agricultural production, the regions included in the sample should significantly differ in natural and agricultural zones, agricultural production efficiency, contribution of peasant farms to agricultural output. Unlike other methods, the proposed technique uses a linear programming problem, where all corner solutions are integer. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was utilised to ensure the inclusion of both efficient and inefficient regions in the sample. In accordance with these requirements, Altai, Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar krais and Moscow oblast were selected for analysis. For the regions included in at least one of the five best samples (such as Volgograd, Saratov and Leningrad oblasts), a model of partial equilibrium on the wholesale markets of agricultural products of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (VIAPI model) was applied to assess the impact of scenario climate change on the output and wholesale prices of ten types of agricultural products. The research revealed that while the production in the selected regions is resistant to this influence, except for Altai and Krasnoyarsk krais, regional market prices are still rising due to the impact of world prices for milk products and grain.
气候变化对俄罗斯农业的社会和制度条件(与技术条件相反)的影响几乎没有被研究过。在预算有限的情况下,这类研究应该考察一小部分地区的样本。为了减少主观性,开发了一种形式化的方法来创建和排列区域的小样本。虽然在全国农业生产总值中所占的份额最大,但样本所包括的地区在自然和农业区域、农业生产效率、农民农场对农业产出的贡献方面应该存在显著差异。与其他方法不同,所提出的技术使用线性规划问题,其中所有角解都是整数。使用数据包络分析(DEA)来确保样本中有效和无效区域的包含。根据这些要求,我们选择了阿尔泰、克拉斯诺亚尔斯克、克拉斯诺达尔边疆区和莫斯科州进行分析。对于包括在五个最佳样本中至少一个的地区(如伏尔加格勒、萨拉托夫和列宁格勒州),应用俄罗斯联邦组成实体农产品批发市场的部分均衡模型(VIAPI模型)来评估情景气候变化对十种农产品产量和批发价格的影响。研究显示,除了阿尔泰和克拉斯诺亚尔斯克边疆区外,选定地区的生产对这种影响具有抵抗力,但由于世界奶制品和谷物价格的影响,该地区的市场价格仍在上涨。
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Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society
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