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Determinants of Human Resources Considering Industry Specialisation 考虑行业专业化的人力资源决定因素
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-5
исследовательская статья, Zhanna A. Ermakova, N. Speshilova, Vyacheslav N. Shepel
Since digitalisation of the economy greatly affects the labour market, human resources in each constituent entity of Russia should be developed taking into account regional specialisation (agriculture, industry or other). Thus, the study aims to substantiate the determinants of human resources in regional economy by considering the dominance of various economic activities. Statistical data analysis, as well as comparison and causal analysis methods were utilised. The following significant determinants of human resources in regional economy were identified: the management system, labour availability and movement, vocational education system and, in particular, the role of local universities in it. The study suggested to introduce an automated intelligent decision support system (AIDSS) into the activities of regional authorities and proposed a methodological approach to the block-by-block organisation of data storage (on the example of Orenburg oblast). It is noted that the architecture and algorithm of AIDSS are being developed, which can be used for managing personnel, as well as for studying and predicting various factors affecting regional economy. The testing demonstrated that the population in Orenburg oblast has been decreasing since 2014. The share of rural population decreased more than the urban one; this factor negatively affected the reproduction of labour resources, considering economic specialisation of this regions. Orenburg oblast is characterised by slow implementation of innovations and the need to develop knowledge-intensive industries; therefore, it is necessary to intensify the training of highly qualified personnel (primarily at regional universities) competent to work in the conditions of digitalisation of the economy. Scientists and specialists in the field of human capital development can use the research findings to create state policies to ensure human resources in Russian regions.
由于经济数字化对劳动力市场产生了巨大影响,俄罗斯各组成实体的人力资源开发应考虑到区域专业化(农业、工业或其他)。因此,本研究旨在通过考虑各种经济活动的主导地位来证实区域经济中人力资源的决定因素。采用统计资料分析、比较分析、因果分析等方法。确定了区域经济中人力资源的下列重要决定因素:管理制度、劳动力供应和流动、职业教育制度,特别是地方大学在其中的作用。该研究建议在地区当局的活动中引入一个自动智能决策支持系统(AIDSS),并提出了一种数据存储的分块组织方法(以奥伦堡州为例)。报告指出,目前正在开发艾滋病信息系统的架构和算法,可用于人员管理,以及研究和预测影响区域经济的各种因素。测试表明,自2014年以来,奥伦堡州的人口一直在减少。农村人口比重下降幅度大于城市人口比重;考虑到该地区的经济专业化,这一因素对劳动力资源的再生产产生了负面影响。奥伦堡州的特点是创新实施缓慢,需要发展知识密集型产业;因此,有必要加强培养能够在经济数字化条件下工作的高素质人才(主要是在地方大学)。人力资本开发领域的科学家和专家可以利用研究成果制定国家政策,以确保俄罗斯各地区的人力资源。
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引用次数: 1
Industries Development with the Input-Output Analysis: Investment Simulation on Two Regencies in Indonesia 投入产出分析下的产业发展:印尼两大产业的投资模拟
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-17
F. Firmansyah, S. Oktavilia, S. Handayani
The similarity of the industrial structure of the main industries in two neighboring regencies, Wonosobo and Temanggung, Indonesia, is expected to result in equality demand for intermediate and primary inputs. The neighbouring regencies are located in the mountainous area and had similarities in economic structure. The goals of this study were to analyse the economic structure, select 5 main sectors in each district, and compare the impact of the economic investment on the main sectors in order to identify the effectiveness of the investment in the same production sector in the context of its impact on the economy. This research employed independent Input-Output analysis using the 2016 Input-Output Tables of Wonosobo and Temanggung regencies to evaluate the flow of intersectoral transactions and develop a multiplier analysis to determine development strategies which are shock injections applied to each region. This study hypothesises that the increase of sectoral investments increases output which is relatively the same in 5 corresponding industries in both regions. The obtained results showed that the selected main sector included Trade, Other Food and Beverage Industries, Building, and Wood and Wood Materials Industries. The investment on the main industrial sector led to a higher improvement in Temanggung rather than in Wonosobo. By simulating investment policies in two adjoining regencies, the optimally economic impact on each region and the cooperation approach used to carry out development planning can be assessed.
印度尼西亚的沃诺索博和特曼贡两个邻近地区的主要产业的产业结构相似,预计将导致对中间和初级投入的需求相等。邻近的县域都位于山区,经济结构有相似之处。本研究的目标是分析经济结构,选择每个地区的5个主要部门,并比较经济投资对主要部门的影响,以便在其对经济影响的背景下确定同一生产部门投资的有效性。本研究采用了独立的投入产出分析,使用了2016年Wonosobo县和Temanggung县的投入产出表来评估部门间交易的流动,并开发了一个乘数分析,以确定适用于每个地区的发展战略。本研究假设部门投资的增加增加了产出,这在两个地区的5个相应行业中是相对相同的。所得结果表明,选择的主要行业包括贸易、其他食品和饮料工业、建筑、木材和木材材料工业。对主要工业部门的投资导致Temanggung比Wonosobo有更高的改善。通过模拟两个相邻县域的投资政策,可以评估对每个区域的最佳经济影响以及用于实施发展规划的合作方法。
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引用次数: 1
Differentiation of Small Towns by Knowledge Localisation Factors 基于知识本土化因素的小城镇分化研究
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-3
Jel O18, Т. Б. Мельникова, Tatyana B. Melnikova, Tatyana B. Melnikova — Cand, Sci. Econ
The ambiguity of the causal relationship between knowledge creation and regional growth does not indicate its insignificance, as proven by numerous empirical studies. However, such works rarely examine small towns, characterised by uncertainty of knowledge sources. The article aims to identify and compare groups of similar small towns in the Central, Ural and Southern Federal Districts by using a set of knowledge localisation factors. A two-stage clustering was performed by the k-means method according to the following criteria: interactions between actors, specific knowledge stock and financial resources for commercialisation. The resulting cluster centres were divided into quartiles according to the grading system (good, satisfactory or poor). First, the study revealed 10 clusters in the Central Federal District, 7 clusters in the Ural Federal District and 5 clusters in the Southern Federal District. In 35 % of the towns of the Southern Federal District, 35 % of the Central Federal District and 38 % of the Ural Federal District, the estimated specific knowledge stock exceeded the availability of financial resources. Second, towns were differentiated by population and divided into two groups depending on the agglomeration impact of larger cities. Clusters were formed within each group and federal district. 50 % of Ural towns with a population of 10,000 to 20,000 people unaffected by the agglomeration, as well as 62 % of towns with more than 20,000 people have the advantage of specific knowledge stock over financial resources. These values are 18 % and 8 %, respectively, for the Central Federal District, 36 % and 30 % for the Southern Federal District. The findings can help extend the analytical framework for making decisions on the small towns development. Future research may focus on establishing measures to improve the characteristics of clusters.
大量实证研究证明,知识创造与区域增长之间因果关系的模糊性并不意味着其不重要。然而,这些作品很少考察小城镇,其特点是知识来源的不确定性。本文旨在通过使用一套知识本地化因素来识别和比较中部、乌拉尔和南部联邦区相似的小城镇群体。根据以下标准,通过k-means方法进行两阶段聚类:参与者之间的相互作用,特定知识存量和商业化的财务资源。根据评分系统(好、满意或差)将得到的聚类中心分为四分位数。首先,研究发现中央联邦区有10个集群,乌拉尔联邦区有7个集群,南部联邦区有5个集群。在南部联邦区35%的城镇、中央联邦区35%的城镇和乌拉尔联邦区38%的城镇,估计的具体知识存量超过了可用的财政资源。第二,以人口划分城镇,并根据较大城市的集聚效应将城镇划分为两类。在每个群体和联邦区内形成集群。乌拉尔1 - 2万人口的城镇中,50%未受集聚影响,2万以上的城镇中,62%具有特定知识存量优于财力的优势。这些数值在中央联邦区分别为18%和8%,在南部联邦区分别为36%和30%。研究结果有助于扩展小城镇发展决策的分析框架。未来的研究重点可能是建立改善集群特征的措施。
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引用次数: 0
Methodology for Assessing the Effectiveness of Investment Policy in Russian Regions 评估俄罗斯地区投资政策有效性的方法
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-20
V. Myakshin, V. Petrov, T. N. Pesiakova
Objective and reliable information on the investment results, as well as the methodology for their comprehensive assessment are necessary to make effective investment decisions. The conducted analysis of modern investment ratings revealed numerous methodological problems. Thus, the present study aims to develop a new and promising tool for examining the investment attractiveness of Russian regions and assessing the effectiveness of their investment policy. Kaplan and Norton’s balanced score-card model is used as the main research method. The configuration of the balanced scorecard was determined in accordance with the key investment factors; it includes four components: development; natural resource; political, economic and social; production and financial. The study identified main assessment indicators connected with the key investment factors and information needs of investment actors (pubic authorities, private investors, population). Additionally, the article proposed assessment methods and a measuring system based on the target values of indicators, depending on the objectives of regional investment policy. To determine the achievement of these objectives, the target and actual (showing the investment results) values of indicators were compared. The significant deviation of these values allowed us to establish priorities of regional investment policy. Based on the data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the developed methodology was tested on regions of the Russian Arctic. The natural resource component positively influences the investment attractiveness of these regions, while the development component has a negative impact. The revealed differentiation and multidirectional dynamics of integral indicators indicate an imbalance in certain areas of the investment policy of these regions (excluding the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)), limiting the realisation of their investment potential. Based on the research results, ways to increase regional investment attractiveness were described.
要作出有效的投资决策,客观可靠的投资结果信息及其综合评价方法是必要的。对现代投资评级的分析揭示了许多方法上的问题。因此,本研究旨在开发一个新的和有前途的工具来检查俄罗斯地区的投资吸引力和评估其投资政策的有效性。本文采用Kaplan和Norton的平衡计分卡模型作为主要研究方法。根据关键投资因素确定平衡计分卡的配置;它包括四个部分:发展;自然资源;政治、经济和社会;生产和财务。这项研究确定了与关键投资因素和投资行为者(公共当局、私人投资者、人口)的信息需要有关的主要评价指标。此外,根据区域投资政策目标,提出了基于指标目标值的评价方法和衡量体系。为了确定这些目标的实现情况,将指标的目标值与实际值(显示投资结果)进行比较。这些值的显著偏差使我们能够确定区域投资政策的优先级。根据联邦国家统计局的数据,开发的方法在俄罗斯北极地区进行了测试。自然资源部分正向影响区域投资吸引力,而发展部分负向影响区域投资吸引力。综合指标所显示的差异和多向动态表明,这些地区(萨哈(雅库特)共和国除外)投资政策的某些领域不平衡,限制了其投资潜力的实现。在此基础上,提出了提高区域投资吸引力的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Product Segments of the Agri-food Market: Unified Approach or Targeted State Regulation 农产品市场的产品细分:统一方式还是国家定向调控
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-16
T. Belova, I. N. Chernyshov, R. Gubanov
The state policy of protectionism in the agri-food sector yielded ambiguous results, such as success in agriculture and achievement of food security thresholds on the one hand, and a sharp increase in food prices on the other. Sugar market has satisfied domestic demand and therefore needs either export expansion or production restriction. The article analyses the development dynamics of the sugar beet industry and sugar consumer market in 2000-2021. The study aims to assess the effectiveness of existing state support measures in the sugar market, considering changes in import substitution. It is hypothesised that in case of saturation of the market with domestic products, the state should support consumers rather than producers. Statistical data analysis and simulation modelling were used as the main research methods. Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) was chosen to indicate changes in state support. Domestic market volume under constant demand was assessed. Given that the average per capita sugar consumption remains at 39 kg/person, domestic consumption is 5.8 million tonnes. Considering current production volumes (7.6 million tonnes), the equilibrium price of sugar is estimated at 37 roubles/kg. Calculated NPC values show the dominance of market price transfers for sugar producers. Thus, it is necessary to switch to unrelated support measures for strengthening the effect of market mechanisms. The results can be adapted to develop specific agricultural policy instruments. Future research may conduct deeper structural analysis of selected segments of food markets in order to identify regional and corporate characteristics of participant interaction and adjustment of state regulation measures.
农业食品部门的国家保护主义政策产生了模棱两可的结果,例如一方面在农业方面取得了成功,实现了粮食安全门槛,另一方面粮食价格急剧上涨。食糖市场已经满足了国内需求,因此需要扩大出口或限制生产。本文分析了2000-2021年甜菜产业和糖消费市场的发展动态。考虑到进口替代的变化,本研究旨在评估现有国家对糖市场支持措施的有效性。假设在国内产品市场饱和的情况下,国家应该支持消费者而不是生产者。主要研究方法为统计数据分析和仿真建模。选择名义保护系数(NPC)来表示国家支持的变化。评估了持续需求下的国内市场数量。鉴于人均糖消费量保持在39公斤/人,国内消费量为580万吨。考虑到目前的产量(760万吨),食糖的均衡价格估计为37卢布/公斤。计算出的NPC值表明,市场价格转移对食糖生产商起主导作用。因此,有必要转向不相关的支持措施,以加强市场机制的作用。研究结果可用于制定具体的农业政策工具。未来的研究可以对选定的食品市场细分市场进行更深入的结构分析,以确定参与者互动和国家监管措施调整的区域和企业特征。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of the Impact of Firm Level Competition on Russian Innovation 企业层面竞争对俄罗斯创新的影响评价
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-12
James Okrah, James Okrah — Research Engineer
Innovation is an essential component of a company’s survival in this competitive world of business. Firms in free and competitive marketplaces are compelled to adopt more efficient production techniques and provide customers with new and improved products. This research examines the impact of competition on innovation in free and competitive marketplaces. The study is motivated by the Russian government’s goal of increasing productivity of small and medium-sixed enterprises (SMEs) to 32% of gross domestic product. The study employed the Logit model to analyse the data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey. The findings reveal that fierce competition has a significant negative effect on innovation. Specifically, competition reduces product, process, and new product innovation by 5%, 3%, and 3.5% respectively. The step-by-step innovation model indicates that competition stimulates innovation in firms operating in contestable markets. Additionally, higher levels of competition negatively affect new product innovation. These results suggest that intense competition may impede firms’ ability to innovate, particularly in the areas of product development, process improvement, and introducing new products. However, competition acts as a driving force that compels firms to innovate in order to maintain their competitiveness in the market. Consequently, increased competition may lead to a diversion of resources towards research and development (R&D), potentially limiting firms’ capacity to introduce new products.
在这个竞争激烈的商业世界中,创新是公司生存的重要组成部分。在自由和竞争的市场上,公司被迫采用更有效的生产技术,并向顾客提供新的和改进的产品。本研究考察了自由竞争市场中竞争对创新的影响。俄罗斯政府的目标是将中小企业(SMEs)的生产率提高到国内生产总值(gdp)的32%,这一目标推动了这项研究。本研究采用Logit模型分析世界银行企业调查的数据。研究结果表明,激烈的竞争对创新具有显著的负向影响。具体来说,竞争使产品、工艺和新产品创新分别减少了5%、3%和3.5%。渐进式创新模型表明,竞争刺激了竞争市场中企业的创新。此外,更高水平的竞争会对新产品创新产生负面影响。这些结果表明,激烈的竞争可能会阻碍公司的创新能力,特别是在产品开发、过程改进和引入新产品方面。然而,竞争作为一种驱动力,迫使企业创新,以保持其在市场上的竞争力。因此,竞争加剧可能导致资源转向研发(R&D),潜在地限制了企业推出新产品的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Does Education Affect Income Inequality? A Comparative Review of Fourteen European Countries 教育影响收入不平等吗?欧洲十四个国家的比较回顾
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-8
Joanna Muszyńska, E. Wędrowska, . JoannaMuszyńskaiD
For years, income inequality and its sources have remained the focus of attention of many researchers. The present article aims to expand and update the knowledge concerning the dimensions of household income inequality in European countries. The paper focuses on the association between the educational attainment and income inequality. It is hypothesised that the different level of income inequality observed in different countries can depend on the educational attainment of the society. Therefore, the main research objective of the article is to explain how the education level of the head of household affects income inequality in fourteen West-EU countries. The analysis also has two empirical aims: to assess the divergence in the mean incomes of the distinguished subgroups of households and to measure how much of the overall inequality can be attributed to the distance between these subgroups rather than to inequalities within them. To this end, the Generalised Entropy measures were applied, using the representative microdata derived from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). The obtained results indicate that the education level has a significant impact on the income variability between households, with some differences between countries. The study also revealed that the higher proportion of people with the lowest level of education, the higher inter-group income differentiation. Moreover, the study demonstrates that most countries with a high proportion of well-educated people also show low levels of inequality at the bottom of the distribution. This suggests that income inequality could be controlled through the development of education.
多年来,收入不平等及其成因一直是许多研究者关注的焦点。本文旨在扩大和更新有关欧洲国家家庭收入不平等方面的知识。本文主要研究受教育程度与收入不平等之间的关系。假设在不同国家观察到的不同程度的收入不平等可能取决于社会的教育程度。因此,本文的主要研究目的是解释14个西欧国家的户主教育水平如何影响收入不平等。该分析还有两个实证目的:评估不同家庭子群体平均收入的差异,以及衡量总体不平等在多大程度上可以归因于这些子群体之间的距离,而不是它们内部的不平等。为此,使用来自欧盟收入和生活条件统计(EU- silc)的代表性微数据,应用了广义熵测量。所得结果表明,教育水平对家庭间收入变异性有显著影响,且国家间存在一定差异。研究还显示,受教育程度最低的人群比例越高,群体间的收入差距就越大。此外,该研究表明,大多数受过良好教育的人口比例较高的国家,在收入分配的底层,不平等程度也较低。这表明,收入不平等可以通过发展教育来控制。
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引用次数: 2
Participation of Vietnam in Global Value Chains in the Context of Their Regionalisation 越南在全球价值链区域化背景下参与全球价值链
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-19
И. А. Коргун, I. Korgun
The COVID-19 pandemic and US-China confrontation caused a reconfiguration of global value chains. Since multinational companies choose the China Plus One strategy and seek to diversify their production, Southeast Asian economies and particularly Vietnam have been gaining importance. The present paper aims to analyse the participation of Vietnam in global value chains in terms of its relations with the Republic of Korea. It is hypothesised that as a major trade and investment partner, Korea provides significant value added of Vietnamese exports, contributing to the integration of Vietnam into value chains. Using formulas for assessing a country’s participation in global value chains, the study examined statistics from the international Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database, UNCTAD trade data, and national investment statistics of Korea. Regression analysis was performed to confirm the influence of Korea on Vietnamese exports. The conducted research revealed the growing importance of Vietnam in global value chains. Since 2016, Korean foreign direct investment has been affecting the diversification of Vietnam’s participation in industry value chains, demonstrating the importance of Korea in the development of national manufacturing capabilities. The emerging relationship between these two economies indicates a redistribution of industrial capital in East Asia that contributes to the regionalisation of value chains. The obtained findings can be used for further analysis of global value chains, as well as for studying economic development and transformations, shifts in the balance of economic power due to increasing competition between East Asian countries.
新冠肺炎疫情和中美对抗引发全球价值链重构。由于跨国公司选择了“中国加一”战略,并寻求使其生产多样化,东南亚经济体,尤其是越南,已经变得越来越重要。本文旨在分析越南在与韩国关系方面参与全球价值链的情况。据推测,作为主要的贸易和投资伙伴,韩国为越南的出口提供了大量的附加值,有助于越南融入价值链。该研究使用了评估一国参与全球价值链的公式,分析了国际增加值贸易(TiVA)数据库、联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)贸易数据和韩国国家投资统计数据。回归分析证实了韩国对越南出口的影响。所进行的研究显示,越南在全球价值链中的重要性日益增加。自2016年以来,韩国对外直接投资一直在影响越南参与产业价值链的多元化,表明韩国在国家制造能力发展中的重要性。这两个经济体之间的新兴关系表明,东亚工业资本的再分配有助于价值链的区域化。所得结果可用于进一步分析全球价值链,以及研究经济发展和转型,以及东亚国家之间日益激烈的竞争导致的经济实力平衡的变化。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the Russian Environmental policy on Regional Investments in Environmental protection 俄罗斯环境政策对区域环境保护投资的影响
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-15
E. Tyutyukina, R. Melnikov, T. Sedash, D. Egorova
The implementation of the sustainable development concept determines economic growth while reducing the negative impact on the environment. To achieve this, investments in environmental protection are required, which, first of all, should be stimulated by the national environmental policy. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of environmental policy instruments (charges for emission limits, charges for exceeding emission limits, fines, costs for eco-control, interbudgetary transfers, mandatory environmental insurance, regional tax incentives) on the development of regional investments in environmental protection in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation based on Federal State Statistics Service data. The research methods are panel regressions with fixed and random effects, the typology of regions by industry specialization based on the values of the localization coefficients, various types of analysis (structural, groupings). Our findings demonstrate that the Russian environmental policy pursued in Russia contributed to a slight increase in current environmental expenditures in the regions, primarily in the regions of agricultural specialization, but did not stimulate an increase in environmental investments in fixed assets. As a result, environmental quality indicators did not improve in the majority of Russian regions. Eco-control costs (in industrial regions), and charges for emission limits (in industrial and agro-industrial regions) have the greatest incentive to increase environmental costs. Fines, interbudgetary transfers, mandatory environmental insurance, regional tax incentives do not have a significant impact on environmental investment in fixed assets in Russian regions. To improve the efficiency of the state environmental policy the authors propose to increase the charge for exceeding emission limits and fines for environmental law violation, to revise the target nature of interbudgetary transfers in terms of stimulating environmental investments in fixed assets, and to implement pilot projects to introduce environmental policy instruments that comply with best international practices.
可持续发展理念的实施决定了经济增长,同时减少了对环境的负面影响。为了实现这一目标,需要在环境保护方面进行投资,首先应该由国家环境政策来刺激。本文的目的是根据联邦国家统计局的数据,评估环境政策工具(排放限额收费、超过排放限额收费、罚款、生态控制费用、预算间转移、强制性环境保险、区域税收优惠)对俄罗斯联邦各组成实体在环境保护方面开展区域投资的影响。研究方法有固定效应和随机效应的面板回归、基于定位系数值的行业专业化区域类型、各种类型的分析(结构分析、分组分析)。我们的研究结果表明,在俄罗斯推行的俄罗斯环境政策促成了该地区当前环境支出的小幅增加,主要是在农业专业化地区,但并未刺激固定资产环境投资的增加。结果,俄罗斯大多数地区的环境质量指标没有改善。生态控制成本(在工业地区)和排放限制收费(在工业和农业工业地区)是增加环境成本的最大诱因。罚款、预算间转移、强制性环境保险、地区税收优惠对俄罗斯地区固定资产的环境投资没有显著影响。为了提高国家环境政策的效率,作者建议提高对超标排放的收费和对违反环境法律的罚款,在刺激固定资产环境投资方面修改预算间转移的目标性质,并实施试点项目,引入符合最佳国际实践的环境政策工具。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Kazakhstan’s Regional Labour Markets in the Digital Economy: Factors and Conditions 数字经济中哈萨克斯坦区域劳动力市场的发展:因素和条件
IF 4.4 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-1-8
N. Kurmanov, G. Kabdullina, Zh. Zh. Aliyeva
Changes in the labour market are an inevitable result of technological progress. In these cir-cumstances, the effectiveness of public policy will depend on the correct projection of the future bal-ance in the labour market and on the drivers that can affect the technological development, elimination or preservation of jobs. Based on correlation and regression analysis, the study examines the influence of various factors on the transformation of regional labour markets in the context of digitalisation. The con-ducted calculations revealed that the human capital and entrepreneurial activity in the region influence the labour market the most. The calculated coefficient of elasticity shows that when the share of students in the population increases by 1 %, the value of the variable of the share of IT employees in the total num-ber of employees increases by 0.15 %. Increase in the ratio of small enterprises to the labour force by 1 unit shall increase the share of IT employees in the total number of employees by 0.002 %. However, at present, information and communication infrastructure is not a key factor in the development of labour market and new sectors, expanding opportunities for digital entrepreneurship, as well as online and of-fline training. Also, region’s innovative potential (level of business innovation in the regions by techno-logical innovations) is not a significant indicator of the intensity of development of new economic sec-tors and the formation of a regional base of accumulated knowledge and competencies. It was concluded that for the developing economy of Kazakhstan, the improvement of information and communication in-frastructure based on digital platforms is more rational for the labour market’s further development.
劳动力市场的变化是技术进步的必然结果。在这些情况下,公共政策的有效性将取决于对劳动力市场未来平衡的正确预测,以及可能影响技术发展、消除或保留工作的驱动因素。基于相关和回归分析,本研究考察了数字化背景下各因素对区域劳动力市场转型的影响。进行的计算显示,该区域的人力资本和创业活动对劳动力市场的影响最大。计算出的弹性系数表明,当学生在人口中的比例增加1%时,IT员工在员工总数中所占比例的变量值增加0.15%。小企业占劳动力的比例每增加1个单位,IT从业人员占员工总数的比例就会增加0.002%。然而,目前,信息和通信基础设施不是发展劳动力市场和新行业、扩大数字创业机会以及在线和在线培训的关键因素。此外,区域创新潜力(区域内通过技术创新实现的业务创新水平)并不是新经济部门发展强度和区域知识和能力积累基础形成的重要指标。结论是,对于发展中的哈萨克斯坦经济而言,基于数字平台的信息通信基础设施的改善对于劳动力市场的进一步发展更为合理。
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Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society
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