Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-25DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102066
Kyoung-Hun Bae , Peter Dixon , Eun-Jung Lee
We study whether a subset of high-frequency traders, which we refer to as opportunistic high-frequency traders, systematically anticipate and trade around individual large trades to profit from their price impact. The trading patterns we document, using account-level transaction data from the Korean Stock Exchange, are consistent with opportunistic high-frequency traders anticipating individual large trades and trading opportunistically around them. Our findings are difficult to reconcile with alternative hypotheses that opportunistic high-frequency traders and large traders are trading on a common price signal, or that the observed trading behavior is the byproduct of market-making strategies.
{"title":"Large trade anticipation","authors":"Kyoung-Hun Bae , Peter Dixon , Eun-Jung Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether a subset of high-frequency traders, which we refer to as opportunistic high-frequency traders, systematically anticipate and trade around individual large trades to profit from their price impact. The trading patterns we document, using account-level transaction data from the Korean Stock Exchange, are consistent with opportunistic high-frequency traders anticipating individual large trades and trading opportunistically around them. Our findings are difficult to reconcile with alternative hypotheses that opportunistic high-frequency traders and large traders are trading on a common price signal, or that the observed trading behavior is the byproduct of market-making strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102066"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145417298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-24DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102068
Marie Finnegan , Lucía Morales
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) access to bank finance is a significant concern for researchers, with much literature using discrete choice models and the ECB/EC Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). However, there is no consensus in this literature on the treatment of standard errors. Some employ heteroskedastic robust standard errors, some cluster standard errors at the country level, while others cluster at the country x time level. Yet, different standard error treatments can lead to different effects and can affect the reliability of model estimations. The methodology employed is a discrete choice binary dependent probit model and sensitivity analysis, which subjects the main findings to different standard error treatments and the application of a novel diagnostic framework to choose the best performing discrete choice model. The main findings show that results for variables from SAFE remain consistent regardless of standard errors used, but country effects vary with different treatments. This highlights the need for researchers to make explicit their research choices and rationale regarding standard errors, subject their findings to sensitivity analysis and ensure valid inference. In general, clustering at the country x time level is particularly appropriate when using discrete choice models when the data exhibits both cross-sectional and temporal dependencies. This paper contributes to the literature by examining standard error treatments used in previous SAFE studies and introducing a diagnostic framework to identify the best-performing discrete choice model. This diagnostic framework bridges the gap between econometric guidance and applied studies using SAFE and can be applied more generally to multi-country discrete choice analysis.
{"title":"Evaluating discrete choice model specifications in SAFE-based research: Implications for research in SMEs access to bank finance","authors":"Marie Finnegan , Lucía Morales","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) access to bank finance is a significant concern for researchers, with much literature using discrete choice models and the ECB/EC Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). However, there is no consensus in this literature on the treatment of standard errors. Some employ heteroskedastic robust standard errors, some cluster standard errors at the country level, while others cluster at the country x time level. Yet, different standard error treatments can lead to different effects and can affect the reliability of model estimations. The methodology employed is a discrete choice binary dependent probit model and sensitivity analysis, which subjects the main findings to different standard error treatments and the application of a novel diagnostic framework to choose the best performing discrete choice model. The main findings show that results for variables from SAFE remain consistent regardless of standard errors used, but country effects vary with different treatments. This highlights the need for researchers to make explicit their research choices and rationale regarding standard errors, subject their findings to sensitivity analysis and ensure valid inference. In general, clustering at the country x time level is particularly appropriate when using discrete choice models when the data exhibits both cross-sectional and temporal dependencies. This paper contributes to the literature by examining standard error treatments used in previous SAFE studies and introducing a diagnostic framework to identify the best-performing discrete choice model. This diagnostic framework bridges the gap between econometric guidance and applied studies using SAFE and can be applied more generally to multi-country discrete choice analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102068"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145417299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-25DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102061
Hao Fang , Chien-Ping Chung , Yen-Hsien Lee
Using a dynamic panel threshold regression that allows both the threshold variable and regressors to be endogenous, this study precisely analyzes the moderating effects of the threshold in a credit market on the relationship between financial development and economic growth considering a banking crisis. Our sample includes data from 54 countries for1996–2017. We find that without a banking crisis, the effect of finance on growth under lower credit growth is significantly positive, but this effect turns significantly negative under higher credit growth. However, when a banking crisis occurs, the net effect of the finance–growth relationship on higher credit growth becomes increasingly negative. Our findings indicate that the effect of financial development on economic growth intuitively depends on growth in private credit rather than only the level of the credit market.
{"title":"Moderating effect of credit growth for financial development on economic growth: Considering banking crises and endogeneity","authors":"Hao Fang , Chien-Ping Chung , Yen-Hsien Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a dynamic panel threshold regression that allows both the threshold variable and regressors to be endogenous, this study precisely analyzes the moderating effects of the threshold in a credit market on the relationship between financial development and economic growth considering a banking crisis. Our sample includes data from 54 countries for1996–2017. We find that without a banking crisis, the effect of finance on growth under lower credit growth is significantly positive, but this effect turns significantly negative under higher credit growth. However, when a banking crisis occurs, the net effect of the finance–growth relationship on higher credit growth becomes increasingly negative. Our findings indicate that the effect of financial development on economic growth intuitively depends on growth in private credit rather than only the level of the credit market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102061"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145417300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-04DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102040
Marcelo Fernandes , Murilo Pereira
Economic news contain valuable information to predict future movements in financial market prices. We explore the relative importance of news flow to forecast realized volatility in the Brazilian stock market. We build news-based uncertainty indicators from articles of major newspapers in Brazil. We then incorporate these indicators into volatility models that already account for persistence, leverage effects, jumps, and market microstructure noise. We find that adding news-based indicators significantly improves the forecasting ability of volatility models, especially for the most liquid stocks and, perhaps surprisingly, for longer horizons. Because news cycles are more persistent than negative returns and jumps, they contribute more than the latter in forecasting realized volatility up to four weeks ahead.
{"title":"Forecasting realized volatility using news flow","authors":"Marcelo Fernandes , Murilo Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic news contain valuable information to predict future movements in financial market prices. We explore the relative importance of news flow to forecast realized volatility in the Brazilian stock market. We build news-based uncertainty indicators from articles of major newspapers in Brazil. We then incorporate these indicators into volatility models that already account for persistence, leverage effects, jumps, and market microstructure noise. We find that adding news-based indicators significantly improves the forecasting ability of volatility models, especially for the most liquid stocks and, perhaps surprisingly, for longer horizons. Because news cycles are more persistent than negative returns and jumps, they contribute more than the latter in forecasting realized volatility up to four weeks ahead.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102040"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-26DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102056
Xuan Minh Thuy Nguyen , Ying Wang , Albert Acheampong
This study examines the impact of banking depth on economic performance in 47 Asian economies from 1980 to 2022, with a focus on the mediating role of institutional governance. Using feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) models and structural equation modelling (SEM), we find that banking depth positively affects both economic development (GDP per capita) and growth (ΔGDPPC). Institutional governance—measured by government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and political stability—enhances this relationship, underscoring the importance of institutional context in Asia. Specifically, control of corruption, rule of law, and voice and accountability fully mediate the impact of banking depth on economic growth, suggesting that improvements in banking depth alone are insufficient without strong institutional support. Additionally, the results highlight the nuanced role of institutional quality across different income groups: while economic growth in higher-income countries is broadly supported by institutional quality, these same governance structures may not optimally enhance the positive impacts of banking depth and size development on the economy. In contrast, the effects of banking on growth in lower-income countries become volatile when institutional quality is considered, emphasizing the need for targeted institutional reforms. Our findings contribute to the existing literature and highlight the need for tailored institutional reforms to maximize the economic benefits of financial sector development and institutional strengthening in Asia.
{"title":"The mediating effect of institutional governance on banking depth and economic performance","authors":"Xuan Minh Thuy Nguyen , Ying Wang , Albert Acheampong","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of banking depth on economic performance in 47 Asian economies from 1980 to 2022, with a focus on the mediating role of institutional governance. Using feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) models and structural equation modelling (SEM), we find that banking depth positively affects both economic development (GDP per capita) and growth (ΔGDPPC). Institutional governance—measured by government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and political stability—enhances this relationship, underscoring the importance of institutional context in Asia. Specifically, control of corruption, rule of law, and voice and accountability fully mediate the impact of banking depth on economic growth, suggesting that improvements in banking depth alone are insufficient without strong institutional support. Additionally, the results highlight the nuanced role of institutional quality across different income groups: while economic growth in higher-income countries is broadly supported by institutional quality, these same governance structures may not optimally enhance the positive impacts of banking depth and size development on the economy. In contrast, the effects of banking on growth in lower-income countries become volatile when institutional quality is considered, emphasizing the need for targeted institutional reforms. Our findings contribute to the existing literature and highlight the need for tailored institutional reforms to maximize the economic benefits of financial sector development and institutional strengthening in Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102056"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-25DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102069
Claudio de Oliveira de Moraes , Roberto Van Meeuwen
This study explores the relationship between financial development and environmental impacts in developing countries. While the growth of financial activities can exacerbate environmental challenges, certain aspects of financial development have the potential to counterbalance these negative effects. These findings emphasize the need for policymakers to carefully assess the trade-offs involved in promoting financial development. A more regulated and balanced approach is essential to ensure that financial progress aligns with sustainability goals.
{"title":"The financial development-environmental nexus – Unveiling trade-offs","authors":"Claudio de Oliveira de Moraes , Roberto Van Meeuwen","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the relationship between financial development and environmental impacts in developing countries. While the growth of financial activities can exacerbate environmental challenges, certain aspects of financial development have the potential to counterbalance these negative effects. These findings emphasize the need for policymakers to carefully assess the trade-offs involved in promoting financial development. A more regulated and balanced approach is essential to ensure that financial progress aligns with sustainability goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102069"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145578871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102054
David Dekker , Chih-Yueh Huang , Dimitrios Christopoulos
Financial markets allow a premium to green bond issuers (a.k.a. greenium), which incentivises the transition to green projects. This premium also absorbs costs associated with green bond certification, necessary to prevent greenwashing, and aimed at reducing investors’ uncertainty. Several taxonomies have been created to classify bonds to that end. A question is to what extend are such classifications an effective means as traditional credit ratings serve a similar, more generic purpose? And what is the possible effect on market efficiency of these classifications? An observed variance in green bond premiums across different bond classes would also suggest that charges for the certification of green bonds should vary. Difference in greeniums reveal differences in the way the markets assess distinctive classes of green bonds. Especially, when bond classifications change, or taxonomies are ambiguous this could lead to adverse selection or invite greenwashing. Here we compare 858 pairs of matched green and non-green bonds and use a mixed effects model to estimate how bonds’ greenium differ over credit ratings and ‘Use of Proceeds’ categories. Results show that lower-rated bonds reach higher levels of green premiums, controlling for categorical random effects. Similar effects are found for ‘Use of Proceeds’ classes. However, compared to either of the two other classifications a cross-classification model provides significant improvement, demonstrating the added value of green bond taxonomies for investors. This solves a paradox in the literature that found that high score ESG bonds, but also low credit rated bonds receive a higher premium. The other implication is that market inefficiencies may occur due to segmentation since it is common practice for certification costs to be flat and independent from greenium levels. Counterintuitively, creating a green taxonomy could lead to more uncertainty and adverse selection for “true” green project financing, which would delay the green transition and the desired shift to a low-carbon economy. An implied remedy is to implement differentiated verification charges for green bonds across bond credit ratings.
{"title":"Price of greenness: Classifications and green bond premiums","authors":"David Dekker , Chih-Yueh Huang , Dimitrios Christopoulos","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Financial markets allow a premium to green bond issuers (a.k.a. greenium), which incentivises the transition to green projects. This premium also absorbs costs associated with green bond certification, necessary to prevent greenwashing, and aimed at reducing investors’ uncertainty. Several taxonomies have been created to classify bonds to that end. A question is to what extend are such classifications an effective means as traditional credit ratings serve a similar, more generic purpose? And what is the possible effect on market efficiency of these classifications? An observed variance in green bond premiums across different bond classes would also suggest that charges for the certification of green bonds should vary. Difference in greeniums reveal differences in the way the markets assess distinctive classes of green bonds. Especially, when bond classifications change, or taxonomies are ambiguous this could lead to adverse selection or invite greenwashing. Here we compare 858 pairs of matched green and non-green bonds and use a mixed effects model to estimate how bonds’ greenium differ over credit ratings and ‘Use of Proceeds’ categories. Results show that lower-rated bonds reach higher levels of green premiums, controlling for categorical random effects. Similar effects are found for ‘Use of Proceeds’ classes. However, compared to either of the two other classifications a cross-classification model provides significant improvement, demonstrating the added value of green bond taxonomies for investors. This solves a paradox in the literature that found that high score ESG bonds, but also low credit rated bonds receive a higher premium. The other implication is that market inefficiencies may occur due to segmentation since it is common practice for certification costs to be flat and independent from greenium levels. Counterintuitively, creating a green taxonomy could lead to more uncertainty and adverse selection for “true” green project financing, which would delay the green transition and the desired shift to a low-carbon economy. An implied remedy is to implement differentiated verification charges for green bonds across bond credit ratings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102054"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145159117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102059
Jinlei Li , Yuanbiao Huang
This study explores how the housing purchase restriction (HPR) in China affects corporate employment. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we present strong evidence that the policy has positive effects on corporate employment. The effect is more significant among firms with lower financing constraint and higher labor intensity, and firms in cities with better credit availability and more abundant labor supply. Mechanism tests reveal that the HPR policy reduces real estate investment and increases productive investments. Furthermore, we discuss the effects of this policy on firms’ employment structure and city-level employment.
{"title":"Housing purchase restriction and corporate employment: Evidence from China","authors":"Jinlei Li , Yuanbiao Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102059","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102059","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how the housing purchase restriction (HPR) in China affects corporate employment. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we present strong evidence that the policy has positive effects on corporate employment. The effect is more significant among firms with lower financing constraint and higher labor intensity, and firms in cities with better credit availability and more abundant labor supply. Mechanism tests reveal that the HPR policy reduces real estate investment and increases productive investments. Furthermore, we discuss the effects of this policy on firms’ employment structure and city-level employment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102059"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102058
Ufuk Can , Turalay Kenc , Emrah Ismail Cevik
This paper investigates the transmission mechanisms of high policy rate volatility episodes in Türkiye, characterized by sharp and unpredictable interest rate fluctuations. Focusing on the bank lending channel, we employ a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility model to analyze the evolving impact of monetary policy on bank lending. Our analysis examines several key aspects: the relative effectiveness of a single, large policy rate change compared to a series of gradual adjustments; the potential non-linearity of transmission, investigating whether tight or lax monetary policy exhibits greater effectiveness; and the differential responses of rate-based conventional banks and profit-loss-sharing Islamic banks to monetary policy shocks. The key findings indicate that the effectiveness of the bank lending channel varies with the nature and magnitude of monetary policy shocks. Notably, episodes of substantial monetary tightening, especially when coupled with significant exchange rate depreciation, exert a more pronounced dampening effect on lending activity. Furthermore, Islamic banks are more sensitive to policy shocks, largely because of their distinct reliance on profit-sharing arrangements and liquidity-dependent funding models.
{"title":"Bank lending channel under high policy rate volatility: Evidence from Türkiye","authors":"Ufuk Can , Turalay Kenc , Emrah Ismail Cevik","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the transmission mechanisms of high policy rate volatility episodes in Türkiye, characterized by sharp and unpredictable interest rate fluctuations. Focusing on the bank lending channel, we employ a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility model to analyze the evolving impact of monetary policy on bank lending. Our analysis examines several key aspects: the relative effectiveness of a single, large policy rate change compared to a series of gradual adjustments; the potential non-linearity of transmission, investigating whether tight or lax monetary policy exhibits greater effectiveness; and the differential responses of rate-based conventional banks and profit-loss-sharing Islamic banks to monetary policy shocks. The key findings indicate that the effectiveness of the bank lending channel varies with the nature and magnitude of monetary policy shocks. Notably, episodes of substantial monetary tightening, especially when coupled with significant exchange rate depreciation, exert a more pronounced dampening effect on lending activity. Furthermore, Islamic banks are more sensitive to policy shocks, largely because of their distinct reliance on profit-sharing arrangements and liquidity-dependent funding models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102058"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102075
I-Ling Chen , Chia-Chien Chang
This study analyzes the short- and long-term relationships between total ESG score (TESG), their pillars, and corporate credit risk in Taiwan's traditional industries using a panel autoregressive distributed lag model. The results show a stable long-term link between TESG and credit risk, with TESG reducing long-term risk but having no short-term effect. This suggests that ESG performance has an indirect, delayed short-term effect, but effective ESG risk management improves long-term credit risk. Environmental investments lower short-term credit risk, whereas corporate governance enhances long-term stability. In the livelihood and chemical industries, TESG influences long-term credit risk, with governance playing a key role, which is consistent with the full sample results. In the chemical sector, ESG pillars reduce long-term credit risk, but only environmental factors impact short-term risk, suggesting that firms prioritize environmental management for sustainable development and credit risk management.
{"title":"Short- and long-term effects of ESG pillars on credit risk","authors":"I-Ling Chen , Chia-Chien Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the short- and long-term relationships between total ESG score (TESG), their pillars, and corporate credit risk in Taiwan's traditional industries using a panel autoregressive distributed lag model. The results show a stable long-term link between TESG and credit risk, with TESG reducing long-term risk but having no short-term effect. This suggests that ESG performance has an indirect, delayed short-term effect, but effective ESG risk management improves long-term credit risk. Environmental investments lower short-term credit risk, whereas corporate governance enhances long-term stability. In the livelihood and chemical industries, TESG influences long-term credit risk, with governance playing a key role, which is consistent with the full sample results. In the chemical sector, ESG pillars reduce long-term credit risk, but only environmental factors impact short-term risk, suggesting that firms prioritize environmental management for sustainable development and credit risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102075"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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