Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance最新文献

The European Monetary Union (EMU) sovereign debt crisis has been thoroughly investigated in the literature. However, our analysis attempts to shed light on the link between the U.S. and the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) bond markets during the Great Recession. We employ a daily 12-year period dataset and utilize an EGARCH-X approach. Our results reveal significant contagion effects from the U.S. bond market towards the yields of PIIGS bonds. However, our findings suggests that the distribution imposed on the standardized residuals is crucial for identifying the magnitude of the contagion.

This study examines the relationship between environmental, social, and corporate disclosures and its affects on financial position of the firm. The study is based on India’s listed companies which disclosed the ESG variable over the last decade. We examine the five measures of financial performance and firm ESG disclosures. In addition to financial performance measures as response variables, this study uses of Piotroski F scores as a proxy for financial position is unique and novel approach in sustainable finance research. The results show the social disclosures have positive significant affect on firm financial position. Firm value, valuation of the stock and cost of capital. The study will help regulators to strengthen the ESG disclosures and for investors it gives insight about the relationship between ESG disclosure and financial performance of a firms.

This study utilizes weekly datasets on loan growth in Colombia to develop a daily indicator of credit expansion using a two-step machine learning approach. Initially, employing Random Forests (RF), missing data in the raw credit indicator is filled using high frequency indicators like spreads, interest rates, and stock market returns. Subsequently, Quantile Random Forest identifies periods of excessive credit creation, particularly focusing on growth quantiles above 95 %, indicative of potential financial instability. Unlike previous studies, this research combines machine learning with mixed frequency analysis to create a versatile early warning instrument for identifying instances of excessive credit growth in emerging market economies. This methodology, with its ability to handle nonlinear relationships and accommodate diverse scenarios, offers significant value to central bankers and macroprudential authorities in safeguarding financial stability.

Using data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2020, this study employs a partial observable bivariate probit model and introduces fraud triangle theory to explain the mechanisms of overconfidence, short selling, and corporate fraud. Our findings show that overconfidence offers rationalization to investors and corporations, reduces fraud detection, and increases corporate incentives to commit fraud. Short selling promotes information transparency, increases fraud detection, and reduces the opportunities to commit fraud. Moreover, it moderates the relationship between overconfidence and corporate fraud. In addition, overconfidence and short selling affect different types of fraud (operational, executive, and information disclosure fraud). Furthermore, our results show heterogeneity among the ownership types. This study provides a theoretical basis for corporate fraud governance in China’s stock market.

This study analyzes how monthly stock returns in the United States react to conventional and unconventional shadow rates from February 1994 to April 2023. The study uses a nonstationary heterogeneous panel data technique appropriate for analyzing large cross-sections and long periods. The analysis is separated into turbulent and tranquil periods. The findings suggest that, although the shadow rate is expected to align with the long-term rate, its ability to boost economic activity in the stock markets is only applicable in the short term. Despite the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) being unable to be lowered below zero bounds, the study shows results that support the effectiveness of the FFR in stimulating stock returns in the long run, particularly during crisis periods. The study also reveals that both conventional and unconventional shadow rates share a common feature, which is that they demonstrate how the stock markets can be downward-sticky in the long run with a rising shadow rate in virtually all 50 states in the U.S. The findings provide sturdy insights into the usefulness of unconventional monetary policy measures for stock market performance during crises and normal periods.

A joint decision-making model for debt financing and operations is constructed in this study. The proposed model is designed so that enterprises can actively adjust the transparency of private information while considering the risks of corporate bankruptcy, bank premium behavior, and possible damage to the product market. We systematically analyzed the mechanisms of bank interest rate pricing, corporate information transparency, and corresponding stocking strategies. We examined the impact of the companies’ inventories and transparency of different types of information on bank interest rates, which revealed financing and management-related decision-making issues based on the bank’s interest rate response function. Various levels of information transparency are appropriate for companies in the context of debt financing. We discuss the impact of changes in exogenous parameters in the product and financial markets on the basis of global equilibrium, as well as corporate characteristics affecting optimal decision-making.

We examine liquidity policies in an environment in which banks can cover their liquidity needs by hoarding liquidity or selling long-term assets to expert investors. Investors can acquire costly information regarding asset quality and deprive banks with bad assets from accessing the asset market. To prevent expert scrutiny, banks must accept fire sale prices for their assets. These depressed prices induce banks to hoard inefficiently low (high) amounts of liquidity when the likelihood of a liquidity shock is relatively low (high). We show that policy interventions aimed at maintaining opacity in the asset market encourage (discourage) liquidity hoarding when there is underhoarding (overhoarding) of liquidity. This suggests that ex-post interventions can serve as substitutes for ex-ante liquidity regulations.

The accuracy of CDS premiums has been questioned in many former studies. However, we intend to show that the volatilities of these spreads rather than their basis point levels indicate and signal the status of sovereign risk and credit worthiness as they tend to reveal sudden deteriorations in key sovereign and global economic indicators. In that respect we aim to reveal the determinants of Turkish CDS spread volatility by using an ARDL Bounds Test framework. In line with our expectations exchange rate, stock market indice and oil price volatility have significant positive coefficients in the long run whereas US 10-year bond spreads have short run effects up to three lags. Also, our results show that COVID pandemic has remarkably increased Turkish CDS volatility. Moreover, the unorthodox monetary policies adopted after COVID has also raised CDS volatility with persistently high spread levels where a long-term memory effect was prevalent.

The impact of export decisions on firm performance has been extensively studied empirically, yet little attention has been given to the investments resulting from these decisions and their subsequent returns. Moreover, existing research predominantly examines export choices from a technological perspective, with minimal emphasis on the marketing aspects of exporting. Our study offers new insights by examining whether exporting induces firms to invest in marketing and research and development (R&D), and how these investments affect their performance before and after entering export markets. Using a panel of Indian firms from 2002 to 2019, our two-step methodology employs propensity score matching (PSM) to extract export-induced expenditures and production function estimation to assess their impacts on firm performance. The findings reveal that both export-induced marketing and R&D expenditures positively influence firm performance, with marketing investments exhibiting a stronger impact. The combined effect becomes significantly evident post-export entry. We also utilized the instrumental variable (IV) method to validate our findings. Heterogeneous IV analysis highlights that mature firms and those facing financial constraints particularly ramp up these investments post-export entry. Our results hold implications for managers and policymakers, emphasizing the importance of carefully designing export investment policies alongside other export support programs.

The Japan Financial Services Agency (JFSA), the country’s financial regulatory body, is concerned with business conduct surrounding mutual fund sales in Japan, especially regarding thematic and monthly distribution funds. The agency introduced a new regulatory policy in 2015 to encourage competition to provide high-quality, customer-oriented financial products and services. Unlike traditional regulation, this policy is based on the comply-or-explain approach, which does not mandate compliance. We utilize a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine whether this policy induces changes in the behavior of fund distributors regarding the promotion of these funds. We find that the effectiveness of the policy is not uniform. The policy has a limited impact on reducing fund flows and the size of thematic and monthly distribution funds among active funds, which include equity, bond, and balanced funds. By contrast, we find some evidence that the policy has reduced the fund flows and the size of equity thematic and monthly distribution funds relative to low-cost equity index funds. We find that the comply-or-explain approach alone may not suffice to regulate these fund sales, as distributors and managers can pursue their own interests. In addition, the effectiveness of the approach also depends on investors’ behavior, which may be hindered by a lack of sophistication in understanding the characteristics of these funds.