Pub Date : 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102053
I-Ju Chen , Hang Thi Dieu Nguyen
This study examines the impact of firm diversification on performance during the Covid-19 pandemic, with a focus on investment efficiency and labor productivity. Leveraging the pandemic as an external shock, we explore whether diversified firms navigate disruptions more effectively than single-segment firms. Our findings indicate that diversified firms, particularly those with greater financial flexibility, outperform the focused counterparts. This study highlights the role of internal capital and labor markets in crisis mitigation and underscores the importance of financial resilience. It contributes to the diversification debate and provides managerial insights into strengthening organizational resilience amid external shocks.
{"title":"Corporate diversification, financial flexibility and firm performance during the Covid-19 pandemic","authors":"I-Ju Chen , Hang Thi Dieu Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102053","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of firm diversification on performance during the Covid-19 pandemic, with a focus on investment efficiency and labor productivity. Leveraging the pandemic as an external shock, we explore whether diversified firms navigate disruptions more effectively than single-segment firms. Our findings indicate that diversified firms, particularly those with greater financial flexibility, outperform the focused counterparts. This study highlights the role of internal capital and labor markets in crisis mitigation and underscores the importance of financial resilience. It contributes to the diversification debate and provides managerial insights into strengthening organizational resilience amid external shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102053"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102055
I-Chan Chiu , Mao-Wei Hung , Kuang-Chieh Yen
The literature rarely addresses the correlation between option-implied information in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. This study introduces VMS, defined as the difference between the squared VIX and SVIX indices, which captures the left-tail risk of the stock market (Martin, 2017). Analyzing data from 2014 to 2022, we find that higher VMS predicts increased excess returns in the cryptocurrency market. This relationship remains robust when controlling for economic policy uncertainty (Baker, et al., 2016) and the VIX premium (Cheng, 2019), with no significant impacts from crypto-size or crypto-momentum factors.
文献很少涉及股票和加密货币市场中期权隐含信息之间的相关性。本研究引入了VMS，定义为VIX指数和VIX指数的平方之差，它捕获了股票市场的左尾风险（Martin, 2017）。分析2014年至2022年的数据，我们发现更高的VMS预示着加密货币市场的超额回报会增加。在控制经济政策不确定性（Baker, et al., 2016）和VIX溢价（Cheng, 2019）时，这种关系仍然稳固，加密货币规模或加密货币动量因素没有显著影响。
{"title":"SVIX, VIX, and cryptocurrency market return","authors":"I-Chan Chiu , Mao-Wei Hung , Kuang-Chieh Yen","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The literature rarely addresses the correlation between option-implied information in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. This study introduces <em>VMS</em>, defined as the difference between the squared VIX and SVIX indices, which captures the left-tail risk of the stock market (Martin, 2017). Analyzing data from 2014 to 2022, we find that higher <em>VMS</em> predicts increased excess returns in the cryptocurrency market. This relationship remains robust when controlling for economic policy uncertainty (Baker, et al., 2016) and the VIX premium (Cheng, 2019), with no significant impacts from crypto-size or crypto-momentum factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102055"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The role of monetary policy in combating money laundering is underexplored. This study examines how central bank monetary instruments, financial development, and governance influence anti-money laundering (AML) effectiveness across 126 countries (2012–2022). Using macroeconomic theories, we analyze financial institutions’ trade-offs between AML compliance and profit-driven behaviors, such as exploiting high deposit rates. Key findings indicate: (1) broad money supply weakens AML effectiveness, especially post-2015 due to FinTech growth; (2) deposit rates, amplified by financial development, increase money laundering risks; (3) strong control of corruption enhances AML, particularly in less developed financial systems. These results, derived from OLS with robust standard errors and two-step system GMM, highlight the need to integrate AML objectives into monetary and financial policies through targeted measures, including interest rate monitoring, AI-driven transaction tracking, FATF cooperation, and governance reforms.
{"title":"Monetary policy, financial development and money laundering: International evidence","authors":"Nguyen-Quynh-Nhu Ngo , Ngoc-Yen-Nhi Vuong , M. Kabir Hassan , Mabruk Billah","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102051","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102051","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The role of monetary policy in combating money laundering is underexplored. This study examines how central bank monetary instruments, financial development, and governance influence anti-money laundering (AML) effectiveness across 126 countries (2012–2022). Using macroeconomic theories, we analyze financial institutions’ trade-offs between AML compliance and profit-driven behaviors, such as exploiting high deposit rates. Key findings indicate: (1) broad money supply weakens AML effectiveness, especially post-2015 due to FinTech growth; (2) deposit rates, amplified by financial development, increase money laundering risks; (3) strong control of corruption enhances AML, particularly in less developed financial systems. These results, derived from OLS with robust standard errors and two-step system GMM, highlight the need to integrate AML objectives into monetary and financial policies through targeted measures, including interest rate monitoring, AI-driven transaction tracking, FATF cooperation, and governance reforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102051"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145159119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-17DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102041
Ekaterina Pirozhkova , Nicola Viegi
This paper studies the bank lending channel of monetary policy in South Africa. We measure credit supply with homeloan data from banks and nonbanks and we use monetary shocks via high-frequency asset price reactions to policy announcements in a proxy-SVAR model. We find that the bank lending channel is operative, as banks reduce the supply of homeloans after monetary tightening, negatively impacting the housing market. In addition, we show that the deposit channel underpins the bank lending channel’s effectiveness. After a monetary tightening, banks widen the deposits spread and the volume of deposits shrinks, as expected. Since retail deposits are vital stable funding for banks, this mechanism drives the lending channel.
{"title":"The bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in South Africa","authors":"Ekaterina Pirozhkova , Nicola Viegi","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the bank lending channel of monetary policy in South Africa. We measure credit supply with homeloan data from banks and nonbanks and we use monetary shocks via high-frequency asset price reactions to policy announcements in a proxy-SVAR model. We find that the bank lending channel is operative, as banks reduce the supply of homeloans after monetary tightening, negatively impacting the housing market. In addition, we show that the deposit channel underpins the bank lending channel’s effectiveness. After a monetary tightening, banks widen the deposits spread and the volume of deposits shrinks, as expected. Since retail deposits are vital stable funding for banks, this mechanism drives the lending channel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102041"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-04DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102040
Marcelo Fernandes , Murilo Pereira
Economic news contain valuable information to predict future movements in financial market prices. We explore the relative importance of news flow to forecast realized volatility in the Brazilian stock market. We build news-based uncertainty indicators from articles of major newspapers in Brazil. We then incorporate these indicators into volatility models that already account for persistence, leverage effects, jumps, and market microstructure noise. We find that adding news-based indicators significantly improves the forecasting ability of volatility models, especially for the most liquid stocks and, perhaps surprisingly, for longer horizons. Because news cycles are more persistent than negative returns and jumps, they contribute more than the latter in forecasting realized volatility up to four weeks ahead.
{"title":"Forecasting realized volatility using news flow","authors":"Marcelo Fernandes , Murilo Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic news contain valuable information to predict future movements in financial market prices. We explore the relative importance of news flow to forecast realized volatility in the Brazilian stock market. We build news-based uncertainty indicators from articles of major newspapers in Brazil. We then incorporate these indicators into volatility models that already account for persistence, leverage effects, jumps, and market microstructure noise. We find that adding news-based indicators significantly improves the forecasting ability of volatility models, especially for the most liquid stocks and, perhaps surprisingly, for longer horizons. Because news cycles are more persistent than negative returns and jumps, they contribute more than the latter in forecasting realized volatility up to four weeks ahead.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102040"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-03DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102042
Langang Feng , Jin Hu , Minmin Huang , Muhammad Irfan , Mingjun Hu
This paper explores how artificial intelligence (AI) drives corporate innovation. Using a procurement‑based AI adoption index, patent records, and supply‑chain data from 4004 A-share firms over 2011–2023, we find that greater AI adoption significantly increases the output and efficiency of firms' innovation. We propose a dual‑channel model in which AI enhances knowledge creation and reuse (knowledge orchestration) and transforms data into actionable environmental assets (data assetization). Heterogeneity analysis reveals that large incumbents and growth‑stage firms leverage AI most effectively for innovation outputs and efficiency. Further analysis shows that AI-driven innovation is amplified in firms with executives who have information technology backgrounds, and that highly innovative firms diversify their supply chain to reduce resource risk. Our results demonstrate AI’s potential to advance corporate innovation. We conclude with policy recommendations for municipal planners and corporate strategists to enhance firms’ competitive advantage and promote the development of AI.
{"title":"From algorithms to invention: AI’s impact on corporate innovation output and efficiency","authors":"Langang Feng , Jin Hu , Minmin Huang , Muhammad Irfan , Mingjun Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how artificial intelligence (AI) drives corporate innovation. Using a procurement‑based AI adoption index, patent records, and supply‑chain data from 4004 A-share firms over 2011–2023, we find that greater AI adoption significantly increases the output and efficiency of firms' innovation. We propose a dual‑channel model in which AI enhances knowledge creation and reuse (knowledge orchestration) and transforms data into actionable environmental assets (data assetization). Heterogeneity analysis reveals that large incumbents and growth‑stage firms leverage AI most effectively for innovation outputs and efficiency. Further analysis shows that AI-driven innovation is amplified in firms with executives who have information technology backgrounds, and that highly innovative firms diversify their supply chain to reduce resource risk. Our results demonstrate AI’s potential to advance corporate innovation. We conclude with policy recommendations for municipal planners and corporate strategists to enhance firms’ competitive advantage and promote the development of AI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102042"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102036
Yunmin Chen , Dongmeng Ren
We propose a competitive equilibrium model incorporating taxation and minimum wage constraints in the presence of capital-skill complementarity. The paper mainly addresses how exogenous minimum wage constraints (MWC) impact the optimal progressivity of labor income tax and optimal capital income tax rate. We find the following two results for a steady-state optimal taxes with a binding MWC in an economy with risk averse agents: (i) The capital tax rate is positive, (ii) The labor tax schedule is less progressive in the presence of the MWC than in its absence.
{"title":"Optimal taxation, minimum wage constraint in a model of capital-skill complementarity","authors":"Yunmin Chen , Dongmeng Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a competitive equilibrium model incorporating taxation and minimum wage constraints in the presence of capital-skill complementarity. The paper mainly addresses how exogenous minimum wage constraints (MWC) impact the optimal progressivity of labor income tax and optimal capital income tax rate. We find the following two results for a steady-state optimal taxes with a binding MWC in an economy with risk averse agents: (i) The capital tax rate is positive, (ii) The labor tax schedule is less progressive in the presence of the MWC than in its absence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102036"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-26DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102038
Jinlong Zhang , Wei Zhang , Jiyue E
We examine regulatory risks under biodiversity conservation policy and use a difference-in-differences (DID) model to assess the Green Shield Program's (GSP) impact on enterprise audit pricing. We find that biodiversity regulations increase audit pricing for nature reserve enterprises, with policy effects strengthening over time. Mechanism tests confirm risk disclosure and contagion channels explain this trend. Further analysis excludes "economic correlation collusion" and "firewall risk isolation" as drivers of risk premiums, indicating auditors appropriately compensate for biodiversity regulatory risks. Additionally, GSP boosts the total factor productivity and green total factor productivity of enterprises in nature reserves, supporting the Porter hypothesis. We provide insights into achieving the Porter effect through regulation and offer guidance for implementing the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
{"title":"The impact of biodiversity regulation on audit pricing − A quasi-natural experiment based on the Green Shield Program","authors":"Jinlong Zhang , Wei Zhang , Jiyue E","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine regulatory risks under biodiversity conservation policy and use a difference-in-differences (DID) model to assess the Green Shield Program's (GSP) impact on enterprise audit pricing. We find that biodiversity regulations increase audit pricing for nature reserve enterprises, with policy effects strengthening over time. Mechanism tests confirm risk disclosure and contagion channels explain this trend. Further analysis excludes \"economic correlation collusion\" and \"firewall risk isolation\" as drivers of risk premiums, indicating auditors appropriately compensate for biodiversity regulatory risks. Additionally, GSP boosts the total factor productivity and green total factor productivity of enterprises in nature reserves, supporting the Porter hypothesis. We provide insights into achieving the Porter effect through regulation and offer guidance for implementing the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102038"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144917470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-25DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102039
Shaoyu Li , Henry Hongren Huang , Jeff J. Oxman
Booming markets are a time of high risk and high returns, including the risk of misrepresenting the quality of an investment. China’s debt market is recently experiencing a booming period, and thus this paper presents empirical evidence of ratings shopping in the enterprise bond market. The evidence herein shows that some firms obtain higher credit ratings than they should, resulting in a lower cost of debt financing. We also find that investors become aware of this after multiple financing rounds and punish all clients of those ratings firms that inflate ratings, resulting in a so-called lemon market for the bonds of certain firms.
{"title":"Competition, ratings shopping, and yield spread: Evidence from China’s enterprise bond market","authors":"Shaoyu Li , Henry Hongren Huang , Jeff J. Oxman","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Booming markets are a time of high risk and high returns, including the risk of misrepresenting the quality of an investment. China’s debt market is recently experiencing a booming period, and thus this paper presents empirical evidence of ratings shopping in the enterprise bond market. The evidence herein shows that some firms obtain higher credit ratings than they should, resulting in a lower cost of debt financing. We also find that investors become aware of this after multiple financing rounds and punish all clients of those ratings firms that inflate ratings, resulting in a so-called lemon market for the bonds of certain firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102039"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144917471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-09DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102037
Xinzhu Wang , Mengmeng Pan
Enhancing collaboration among enterprises is crucial for fostering and achieving creative progress across the region and within the industry. Distributing resources and risks is an efficient approach to leverage external benefits that can offset a firm’s inherent deficiencies. This study investigates the impact of urban agglomerations on fostering open innovation among firms traded on China’s A-share markets from 2010 to 2021. Our findings reveal that urban agglomerations decrease the quantity of open innovation but enhance its quality. Mechanism analysis indicates that urban agglomerations improve the quality of open innovation by dismantling transportation barriers; however, urban agglomerations reduce open innovation quantity by promoting industrial concentration. This relationship between urban agglomerations and open innovation is pronounced in large firms. Our study also show that urban agglomerations cannot offset managerial myopia. For firms with limited information disclosure, urban agglomerations exert a positive influence on the quality of open innovation.
{"title":"Will connectedness between urban areas foster cooperation?——The impact of urban agglomerations on open innovation","authors":"Xinzhu Wang , Mengmeng Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhancing collaboration among enterprises is crucial for fostering and achieving creative progress across the region and within the industry. Distributing resources and risks is an efficient approach to leverage external benefits that can offset a firm’s inherent deficiencies. This study investigates the impact of urban agglomerations on fostering open innovation among firms traded on China’s A-share markets from 2010 to 2021. Our findings reveal that urban agglomerations decrease the quantity of open innovation but enhance its quality. Mechanism analysis indicates that urban agglomerations improve the quality of open innovation by dismantling transportation barriers; however, urban agglomerations reduce open innovation quantity by promoting industrial concentration. This relationship between urban agglomerations and open innovation is pronounced in large firms. Our study also show that urban agglomerations cannot offset managerial myopia. For firms with limited information disclosure, urban agglomerations exert a positive influence on the quality of open innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102037"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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