Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-05-31DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102011
Klenio Barbosa , Eduardo Fiuza
This paper empirically investigates the impact of pooled procurement arrangements on acquisition prices of pharmaceuticals and health products. Pooled procurement involves a collaborative agreement among organizations aiming to procure products from suppliers jointly. Pooled arrangements can decrease acquisition prices by aggregating demand but may raise the price paid by buyers with lower payment risk when they jointly acquire products with high-risk ones. We examine these two different channels through which pooled procurement affects prices in the context of public health procurement in Brazil. We find that pooled procurement allows public entities to obtain lower prices. However, we also find evidence that the price paid by low payment risk buyers increases when they associate with high payment risk buyers in pooled arrangements. These two results together indicate that pooled procurement must be properly designed to achieve its potential gains for buyers, which can lead to suboptimal creation of bulk procurement arrangements.
{"title":"Demand aggregation and payment risk effects on pooled procurement: Evidence from the public healthcare sector","authors":"Klenio Barbosa , Eduardo Fiuza","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically investigates the impact of pooled procurement arrangements on acquisition prices of pharmaceuticals and health products. Pooled procurement involves a collaborative agreement among organizations aiming to procure products from suppliers jointly. Pooled arrangements can decrease acquisition prices by aggregating demand but may raise the price paid by buyers with lower payment risk when they jointly acquire products with high-risk ones. We examine these two different channels through which pooled procurement affects prices in the context of public health procurement in Brazil. We find that pooled procurement allows public entities to obtain lower prices. However, we also find evidence that the price paid by low payment risk buyers increases when they associate with high payment risk buyers in pooled arrangements. These two results together indicate that pooled procurement must be properly designed to achieve its potential gains for buyers, which can lead to suboptimal creation of bulk procurement arrangements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102011"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144231462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-18DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102027
Sha Lin , Xuanmeng Lin , Xin-Jiang He
This study utilizes the Hawkes process as an alternative to the Poisson distribution assumption in the jump-diffusion KMV (JD-KMV) model, thereby enhancing the assumption of the expected asset jump size and deriving the Hawkes jump-diffusion KMV (HJD-KMV) model. Subsequently, a regression analysis is conducted on the default distance calculated by the model using bond spreads as a proxy variable for credit risk. The findings reveal that the enhanced jump frequency assumption in the HJD-KMV model enriches its representation of asset information, leading to an improved ability in identifying credit risk. In terms of heterogeneity research, we find that the enhancement of the jump frequency assumption consistently grants the HJD-KMV model superior capacity in identifying credit risk. Moreover, relaxing rigid payment structures proves beneficial to the model's ability in identifying credit risk, while the implementation of financial "deleveraging" policies and the occurrence of epidemics tend to diminish the model's effectiveness in credit risk identification.
{"title":"Credit risk identification with Hawkes processes: Theory and evidence","authors":"Sha Lin , Xuanmeng Lin , Xin-Jiang He","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study utilizes the Hawkes process as an alternative to the Poisson distribution assumption in the jump-diffusion KMV (JD-KMV) model, thereby enhancing the assumption of the expected asset jump size and deriving the Hawkes jump-diffusion KMV (HJD-KMV) model. Subsequently, a regression analysis is conducted on the default distance calculated by the model using bond spreads as a proxy variable for credit risk. The findings reveal that the enhanced jump frequency assumption in the HJD-KMV model enriches its representation of asset information, leading to an improved ability in identifying credit risk. In terms of heterogeneity research, we find that the enhancement of the jump frequency assumption consistently grants the HJD-KMV model superior capacity in identifying credit risk. Moreover, relaxing rigid payment structures proves beneficial to the model's ability in identifying credit risk, while the implementation of financial \"deleveraging\" policies and the occurrence of epidemics tend to diminish the model's effectiveness in credit risk identification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102027"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144514218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-23DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102010
Bradley Paye , Carolina Magda da Silva Roma , Marcelo Fernandes
We construct measures of the time-varying degree of disconnection between uncertainty and volatility for various international equity markets. We show that a strong global component drives the disconnect processes across countries. Building upon prior work focused on the US equity market, we provide an international perspective that confirms and strengthens evidence linking time-variation in the equity premium with uncertainty. Predictability appears to be driven almost exclusively by common (global) variance and uncertainty, consistent with the predictions of benchmark international asset pricing models featuring integrated markets.
{"title":"The equity premium and the disconnect between uncertainty and volatility: A global perspective","authors":"Bradley Paye , Carolina Magda da Silva Roma , Marcelo Fernandes","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We construct measures of the time-varying degree of disconnection between uncertainty and volatility for various international equity markets. We show that a strong global component drives the disconnect processes across countries. Building upon prior work focused on the US equity market, we provide an international perspective that confirms and strengthens evidence linking time-variation in the equity premium with uncertainty. Predictability appears to be driven almost exclusively by common (global) variance and uncertainty, consistent with the predictions of benchmark international asset pricing models featuring integrated markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102010"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144634028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-07-04DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102030
Xiaohui Chen , Paul Moon Sub Choi , Sang-Joon Kim , Jangwook Lee , Seung-Hee Kim
The Internet celebrity (“Wanghong”) economy is a business model that leverages the purchasing power of social media users through online traffic. Since 2016, China has witnessed the rise of the Wanghong economy, characterized by listed firms’ engagement in livestreaming and Wanghong-based commerce. In this study, we find distinctive patterns in short- versus long-term market responses. Investor attention positively affects short-term cumulative abnormal returns upon firms’ initial involvement in Wanghong activities, reflecting sentiment-induced price buoyancy. However, initially overreacted, positive buy-and-hold abnormal returns reverse over 7- to 12-month holding periods. While the Wanghong effect on revenue growth is marginal, long-term returns are in line with firm profitability, suggesting market valuations ultimately revert to fundamentals. In sum, there is a discernible dynamic shift from short-term emotional reactions to long-term rational adjustments in the Wanghong economy.
{"title":"Do influencers pay? Evidence from the Internet celebrity economy in China","authors":"Xiaohui Chen , Paul Moon Sub Choi , Sang-Joon Kim , Jangwook Lee , Seung-Hee Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Internet celebrity (“Wanghong”) economy is a business model that leverages the purchasing power of social media users through online traffic. Since 2016, China has witnessed the rise of the Wanghong economy, characterized by listed firms’ engagement in livestreaming and Wanghong-based commerce. In this study, we find distinctive patterns in short- versus long-term market responses. Investor attention positively affects short-term cumulative abnormal returns upon firms’ initial involvement in Wanghong activities, reflecting sentiment-induced price buoyancy. However, initially overreacted, positive buy-and-hold abnormal returns reverse over 7- to 12-month holding periods. While the Wanghong effect on revenue growth is marginal, long-term returns are in line with firm profitability, suggesting market valuations ultimately revert to fundamentals. In sum, there is a discernible dynamic shift from short-term emotional reactions to long-term rational adjustments in the Wanghong economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102030"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102032
Adnan Aslam , Mohammad Khaleq Newaz
This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on global bond markets, with a focus on distinguishing between geopolitical threats and realized geopolitical events. Using daily data, the study applies a multi-method framework comprising the time-varying parameter vector autoregression connectedness framework, wavelet quantile correlation, and cross-quantilogram analysis to investigate dynamic spillovers, asymmetric relationships, and lead-lag dependencies between geopolitical risk categories and bond markets. Our findings show that bond markets exhibit pronounced sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, with threat-based risks exerting a more persistent and widespread impact than realized geopolitical events. Sovereign and corporate bonds emerge as particularly vulnerable, whereas alternative fixed-income instruments such as sukuk and municipal bonds demonstrate greater resilience. Although bonds are often viewed as long-term safe-haven assets, their short-term hedging effectiveness varies considerably across segments and risk types. Notably, sukuk consistently serve as a reliable safe-haven during periods of elevated geopolitical threat. Our results underline the complexity of geopolitical risk effects, illustrating the importance of distinguishing between geopolitical threats and realized geopolitical events for understanding investor behaviour, risk premiums, and asset pricing dynamics. This study contributes to the literature by offering new insights into the resilience of different bond segments to geopolitical shocks and providing valuable implications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and investment strategies during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
{"title":"Geopolitical risk and bond market dynamics: Assessing the impact of threats and realized events","authors":"Adnan Aslam , Mohammad Khaleq Newaz","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on global bond markets, with a focus on distinguishing between geopolitical threats and realized geopolitical events. Using daily data, the study applies a multi-method framework comprising the time-varying parameter vector autoregression connectedness framework, wavelet quantile correlation, and cross-quantilogram analysis to investigate dynamic spillovers, asymmetric relationships, and lead-lag dependencies between geopolitical risk categories and bond markets. Our findings show that bond markets exhibit pronounced sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, with threat-based risks exerting a more persistent and widespread impact than realized geopolitical events. Sovereign and corporate bonds emerge as particularly vulnerable, whereas alternative fixed-income instruments such as sukuk and municipal bonds demonstrate greater resilience. Although bonds are often viewed as long-term safe-haven assets, their short-term hedging effectiveness varies considerably across segments and risk types. Notably, sukuk consistently serve as a reliable safe-haven during periods of elevated geopolitical threat. Our results underline the complexity of geopolitical risk effects, illustrating the importance of distinguishing between geopolitical threats and realized geopolitical events for understanding investor behaviour, risk premiums, and asset pricing dynamics. This study contributes to the literature by offering new insights into the resilience of different bond segments to geopolitical shocks and providing valuable implications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and investment strategies during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102032"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144653559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-08-30DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102036
Yunmin Chen , Dongmeng Ren
We propose a competitive equilibrium model incorporating taxation and minimum wage constraints in the presence of capital-skill complementarity. The paper mainly addresses how exogenous minimum wage constraints (MWC) impact the optimal progressivity of labor income tax and optimal capital income tax rate. We find the following two results for a steady-state optimal taxes with a binding MWC in an economy with risk averse agents: (i) The capital tax rate is positive, (ii) The labor tax schedule is less progressive in the presence of the MWC than in its absence.
{"title":"Optimal taxation, minimum wage constraint in a model of capital-skill complementarity","authors":"Yunmin Chen , Dongmeng Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a competitive equilibrium model incorporating taxation and minimum wage constraints in the presence of capital-skill complementarity. The paper mainly addresses how exogenous minimum wage constraints (MWC) impact the optimal progressivity of labor income tax and optimal capital income tax rate. We find the following two results for a steady-state optimal taxes with a binding MWC in an economy with risk averse agents: (i) The capital tax rate is positive, (ii) The labor tax schedule is less progressive in the presence of the MWC than in its absence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102036"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-07-28DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102034
Chune Young Chung , Irfan Haider Shakri
This research explores the impact of local non-governmental environmental organizations on board structures. Our results indicate that the intensity of such local organizations relates positively to the number of employee directors on the board. This finding suggests that a firm’s long-term orientation, influenced by local stakeholders, contributes to the development of sustainable board structures. We also analyze whether firms’ internal and external factors affect these organizations. The results show that the positive impact is stronger when local societies and corporate governance prioritize long-term goals. Thus, our findings align with social movement theory, suggesting that social initiatives motivate firms to enhance their social and environmental practices, ultimately fostering a long-term-oriented board structure.
{"title":"Local environmental organizations and employee directors on the board","authors":"Chune Young Chung , Irfan Haider Shakri","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research explores the impact of local non-governmental environmental organizations on board structures. Our results indicate that the intensity of such local organizations relates positively to the number of employee directors on the board. This finding suggests that a firm’s long-term orientation, influenced by local stakeholders, contributes to the development of sustainable board structures. We also analyze whether firms’ internal and external factors affect these organizations. The results show that the positive impact is stronger when local societies and corporate governance prioritize long-term goals. Thus, our findings align with social movement theory, suggesting that social initiatives motivate firms to enhance their social and environmental practices, ultimately fostering a long-term-oriented board structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102034"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-20DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102028
Mustafa Raza Rabbani , Madiha Kiran , Oguzhan Cepni , Muhammad Abubakr Naeem
The global firms are feeling pressure to urgently address the climate concerns and transition towards sustainable green practices. There is an immediate concern from the regulators, investors, governments, and consumers about addressing this pressing issue. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the role of green investments in mitigating climate risk with the moderating role of ESG performance. The study employs panel data from 4375 non-financial firms across 74 countries from 2002 to 2023 to ensure robust inference by using the OLS, GMM, and heterogeneity tests. The findings indicate that green investment significantly reduces climate risk exposure, with ESG performance amplifying this effect. Simultaneously, a high ESG score signals long-term risk management and corporate responsibility, strengthening investor confidence and stakeholder trust. This synergy enhances a firm’s resilience to regulatory and environmental shocks and improves its market valuation and credibility. These insights offer valuable guidance to institutional investors, regulators, and policymakers aiming to align capital allocation with global climate commitments and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Encouraging green investment and ESG integration can serve as a dual-purpose strategy, mitigating climate risk while fostering sustainable, inclusive economic growth. This research contributes to the discourse on sustainable finance by highlighting the role of responsible investment in promoting resilience against climate risk.
{"title":"Fortune favors the green: Role of green investment in mitigating climate risk and the moderating role of ESG performance","authors":"Mustafa Raza Rabbani , Madiha Kiran , Oguzhan Cepni , Muhammad Abubakr Naeem","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global firms are feeling pressure to urgently address the climate concerns and transition towards sustainable green practices. There is an immediate concern from the regulators, investors, governments, and consumers about addressing this pressing issue. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the role of green investments in mitigating climate risk with the moderating role of ESG performance. The study employs panel data from 4375 non-financial firms across 74 countries from 2002 to 2023 to ensure robust inference by using the OLS, GMM, and heterogeneity tests. The findings indicate that green investment significantly reduces climate risk exposure, with ESG performance amplifying this effect. Simultaneously, a high ESG score signals long-term risk management and corporate responsibility, strengthening investor confidence and stakeholder trust. This synergy enhances a firm’s resilience to regulatory and environmental shocks and improves its market valuation and credibility. These insights offer valuable guidance to institutional investors, regulators, and policymakers aiming to align capital allocation with global climate commitments and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Encouraging green investment and ESG integration can serve as a dual-purpose strategy, mitigating climate risk while fostering sustainable, inclusive economic growth<strong>.</strong> This research contributes to the discourse on sustainable finance by highlighting the role of responsible investment in promoting resilience against climate risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102028"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-08-09DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102037
Xinzhu Wang , Mengmeng Pan
Enhancing collaboration among enterprises is crucial for fostering and achieving creative progress across the region and within the industry. Distributing resources and risks is an efficient approach to leverage external benefits that can offset a firm’s inherent deficiencies. This study investigates the impact of urban agglomerations on fostering open innovation among firms traded on China’s A-share markets from 2010 to 2021. Our findings reveal that urban agglomerations decrease the quantity of open innovation but enhance its quality. Mechanism analysis indicates that urban agglomerations improve the quality of open innovation by dismantling transportation barriers; however, urban agglomerations reduce open innovation quantity by promoting industrial concentration. This relationship between urban agglomerations and open innovation is pronounced in large firms. Our study also show that urban agglomerations cannot offset managerial myopia. For firms with limited information disclosure, urban agglomerations exert a positive influence on the quality of open innovation.
{"title":"Will connectedness between urban areas foster cooperation?——The impact of urban agglomerations on open innovation","authors":"Xinzhu Wang , Mengmeng Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhancing collaboration among enterprises is crucial for fostering and achieving creative progress across the region and within the industry. Distributing resources and risks is an efficient approach to leverage external benefits that can offset a firm’s inherent deficiencies. This study investigates the impact of urban agglomerations on fostering open innovation among firms traded on China’s A-share markets from 2010 to 2021. Our findings reveal that urban agglomerations decrease the quantity of open innovation but enhance its quality. Mechanism analysis indicates that urban agglomerations improve the quality of open innovation by dismantling transportation barriers; however, urban agglomerations reduce open innovation quantity by promoting industrial concentration. This relationship between urban agglomerations and open innovation is pronounced in large firms. Our study also show that urban agglomerations cannot offset managerial myopia. For firms with limited information disclosure, urban agglomerations exert a positive influence on the quality of open innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102037"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01Epub Date: 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102025
Yang Jiao , Gemma Renart , Laura Serra
This paper examines the impact of China’s fiscal policy on macroeconomic performance during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, focusing on whether government spending affected output and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data from 2001 to 2010, we apply a vector autoregression (VAR) framework with Johansen cointegration and impulse response analysis to evaluate the short- and long-term relationships between fiscal expenditure, GDP, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The findings indicate that fiscal policy had a limited effect on short-term GDP growth but significantly influenced inflation, with government spending acting as a stabilizing tool for both consumer and producer prices. These results highlight the role of fiscal instruments in price stabilization when monetary policy is constrained. The study offers relevant policy insights for emerging economies seeking to maintain macroeconomic stability during global shocks through inflation-sensitive fiscal strategies.
{"title":"The dynamics of fiscal policy: Insights from China's macroeconomic indicators","authors":"Yang Jiao , Gemma Renart , Laura Serra","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of China’s fiscal policy on macroeconomic performance during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, focusing on whether government spending affected output and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data from 2001 to 2010, we apply a vector autoregression (VAR) framework with Johansen cointegration and impulse response analysis to evaluate the short- and long-term relationships between fiscal expenditure, GDP, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The findings indicate that fiscal policy had a limited effect on short-term GDP growth but significantly influenced inflation, with government spending acting as a stabilizing tool for both consumer and producer prices. These results highlight the role of fiscal instruments in price stabilization when monetary policy is constrained. The study offers relevant policy insights for emerging economies seeking to maintain macroeconomic stability during global shocks through inflation-sensitive fiscal strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102025"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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