We test whether age discrimination rises during recessions using two complementary analyses. Confidential EEOC microdata reveal that age-related firing and hiring charges rise by 3.3 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, for each percentage point increase in a state-industry’s monthly unemployment. Though the opportunity cost of filing falls, the fraction of meritorious claims increases—a sufficient condition for rising discrimination under plausible assumptions. Second, we repurpose data from hiring correspondence studies conducted across different cities and time periods during the recovery from the Great Recession. Each percentage point increase in local unemployment reduces the callback rate for older versus younger women by 15 percent. (JEL E32, J14, J16, J23, J71, M51)
{"title":"Age Discrimination across the Business Cycle","authors":"Gordon B. Dahl, Matthew Knepper","doi":"10.1257/pol.20210169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210169","url":null,"abstract":"We test whether age discrimination rises during recessions using two complementary analyses. Confidential EEOC microdata reveal that age-related firing and hiring charges rise by 3.3 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, for each percentage point increase in a state-industry’s monthly unemployment. Though the opportunity cost of filing falls, the fraction of meritorious claims increases—a sufficient condition for rising discrimination under plausible assumptions. Second, we repurpose data from hiring correspondence studies conducted across different cities and time periods during the recovery from the Great Recession. Each percentage point increase in local unemployment reduces the callback rate for older versus younger women by 15 percent. (JEL E32, J14, J16, J23, J71, M51)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"62 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135217739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We construct a database of public pension policy changes with motivation and implementation information for ten OECD countries. Structural pension reforms, motivated by long-run sustainability concerns, often come with prolonged phase-in periods. In response to pension retrenchments implemented immediately, people close to retirement stay in the workforce longer. News about future pension retrenchments with implementation lags, however, is likely to lead this group to exit the labor market. This decline in the labor force participation rate is particularly strong for reforms with long lags, ones that introduce fundamental policy changes, and ones where citizens have lower trust in the government. (JEL E62, H55, J14, J22, J26)
{"title":"Public Pension Reforms and Retirement Decisions: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications","authors":"Huixin Bi, Sarah Zubairy","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200881","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a database of public pension policy changes with motivation and implementation information for ten OECD countries. Structural pension reforms, motivated by long-run sustainability concerns, often come with prolonged phase-in periods. In response to pension retrenchments implemented immediately, people close to retirement stay in the workforce longer. News about future pension retrenchments with implementation lags, however, is likely to lead this group to exit the labor market. This decline in the labor force participation rate is particularly strong for reforms with long lags, ones that introduce fundamental policy changes, and ones where citizens have lower trust in the government. (JEL E62, H55, J14, J22, J26)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"3 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135161309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We provide experimental evidence on the impact of specific faculty behaviors aimed at increasing student success for college students from historically underrepresented groups. The intervention was developed after conducting in-person focus groups and a pilot experiment. We find significant positive treatment effects across a multitude of short- and longer-run outcomes. Specifically, underrep-resented students in the treatment report more positive perceptions of the professor and earned higher course grades. These positive effects persisted over the next several years, with students in the treatment more likely to persist in college, resulting in increased credit accumulation and degree completion. (JEL I22, I23, I28, J15, J44)
{"title":"My Professor Cares: Experimental Evidence on the Role of Faculty Engagement","authors":"Scott E. Carrell, Michal Kurlaender","doi":"10.1257/pol.20210699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210699","url":null,"abstract":"We provide experimental evidence on the impact of specific faculty behaviors aimed at increasing student success for college students from historically underrepresented groups. The intervention was developed after conducting in-person focus groups and a pilot experiment. We find significant positive treatment effects across a multitude of short- and longer-run outcomes. Specifically, underrep-resented students in the treatment report more positive perceptions of the professor and earned higher course grades. These positive effects persisted over the next several years, with students in the treatment more likely to persist in college, resulting in increased credit accumulation and degree completion. (JEL I22, I23, I28, J15, J44)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"340 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135216144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the impacts of school-based internet access on second graders’ test scores, using over 2 million student observations from a panel of Peruvian public primary schools. We identify effects up to 6+ years after installation on different cohorts of second-grade students, exploiting variation in the timing of internet access induced by the rollout of a national program. We find positive but modest short-run impacts, but importantly, these effects grow for subsequent cohorts. Indeed, short-run estimates alone would have led to different conclusions. These dynamics underscore the value of extended evaluation windows to allow benefits of educational technology to materialize. (JEL I21, I26, I28, O15)
{"title":"Dynamic Impacts of School-Based Internet Access on Student Learning: Evidence from Peruvian Public Primary Schools","authors":"Leah K. Lakdawala, Eduardo Nakasone, Kevin Kho","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200719","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the impacts of school-based internet access on second graders’ test scores, using over 2 million student observations from a panel of Peruvian public primary schools. We identify effects up to 6+ years after installation on different cohorts of second-grade students, exploiting variation in the timing of internet access induced by the rollout of a national program. We find positive but modest short-run impacts, but importantly, these effects grow for subsequent cohorts. Indeed, short-run estimates alone would have led to different conclusions. These dynamics underscore the value of extended evaluation windows to allow benefits of educational technology to materialize. (JEL I21, I26, I28, O15)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"42 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135217537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Can sanctions deter juvenile crime? Research indicates that they may not, as offending barely decreases when individuals cross the age of criminal majority and begin to face harsher sanctions. Several models of criminal behavior predict, however, that these small reactions close to the threshold may mask larger behavioral responses among individuals below the age threshold. Policy variation between 2007–2015 in the United States is used to show evidence consistent with these predictions—juvenile crime increases when the age of majority is increased. This increase is driven by younger age groups and is considerably larger than discontinuity estimates at the threshold. (JEL D91, J13, K42)
{"title":"Juvenile Crime and Anticipated Punishment","authors":"Ashna Arora","doi":"10.1257/pol.20210530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210530","url":null,"abstract":"Can sanctions deter juvenile crime? Research indicates that they may not, as offending barely decreases when individuals cross the age of criminal majority and begin to face harsher sanctions. Several models of criminal behavior predict, however, that these small reactions close to the threshold may mask larger behavioral responses among individuals below the age threshold. Policy variation between 2007–2015 in the United States is used to show evidence consistent with these predictions—juvenile crime increases when the age of majority is increased. This increase is driven by younger age groups and is considerably larger than discontinuity estimates at the threshold. (JEL D91, J13, K42)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"43 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136103388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study direct and indirect effects of Chinese import competition on union membership in the United States, 1990–2014. Import competition in manufacturing induced a modest decline in unionization within manufacturing industries. The magnitude is small because unionized manufacturers competed in higher-quality product segments. Manufacturers in right-to-work states experienced more direct competition with low-quality Chinese imports. Outside of manufacturing, however, import competition causes an important increase in union membership, as less educated women shift away from retail and toward jobs in health care and education where unions are stronger. We calculate that Chinese imports prevented 26 percent of the union density decline that would have otherwise occurred. (JEL F14, F16, J16, J51, L60, P33)
{"title":"The Effects of Import Competition on Unionization","authors":"John S. Ahlquist, Mitch Downey","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200709","url":null,"abstract":"We study direct and indirect effects of Chinese import competition on union membership in the United States, 1990–2014. Import competition in manufacturing induced a modest decline in unionization within manufacturing industries. The magnitude is small because unionized manufacturers competed in higher-quality product segments. Manufacturers in right-to-work states experienced more direct competition with low-quality Chinese imports. Outside of manufacturing, however, import competition causes an important increase in union membership, as less educated women shift away from retail and toward jobs in health care and education where unions are stronger. We calculate that Chinese imports prevented 26 percent of the union density decline that would have otherwise occurred. (JEL F14, F16, J16, J51, L60, P33)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"275 1-2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135217803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The free digital distribution of creative works could cannibalize demand for physical versions, but it could also boost physical sales by enabling consumers to discover the original work. We study the impact of the Google Books digitization project on the market for physical books. We find that digitization significantly boosts the demand for physical versions and provide evidence for the discovery channel. Moreover, digitization allows independent publishers to introduce new editions for existing books, further increasing sales. Our results highlight the potential of free digital distribution to strengthen the demand for and supply of physical products. (JEL D12, L82, L86)
{"title":"Digitization and the Market for Physical Works: Evidence from the Google Books Project","authors":"Abhishek Nagaraj, Imke Reimers","doi":"10.1257/pol.20210702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210702","url":null,"abstract":"The free digital distribution of creative works could cannibalize demand for physical versions, but it could also boost physical sales by enabling consumers to discover the original work. We study the impact of the Google Books digitization project on the market for physical books. We find that digitization significantly boosts the demand for physical versions and provide evidence for the discovery channel. Moreover, digitization allows independent publishers to introduce new editions for existing books, further increasing sales. Our results highlight the potential of free digital distribution to strengthen the demand for and supply of physical products. (JEL D12, L82, L86)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"90 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135166957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Do politics matter for macroprudential policies? I show that changes in macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Policies restricting mortgages and consumer credit are systematically looser before elections, particularly during economic expansions. Consistent with theories of opportunistic political cycles, this pattern is stronger when election outcomes are uncertain, regulators are closely tied to politicians, and institutions are poor. These results suggest that political pressures may limit the ability of regulators to “lean against the wind.” (JEL D72, E32, G01, G21, G28)
{"title":"Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation","authors":"Karsten Müller","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200626","url":null,"abstract":"Do politics matter for macroprudential policies? I show that changes in macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Policies restricting mortgages and consumer credit are systematically looser before elections, particularly during economic expansions. Consistent with theories of opportunistic political cycles, this pattern is stronger when election outcomes are uncertain, regulators are closely tied to politicians, and institutions are poor. These results suggest that political pressures may limit the ability of regulators to “lean against the wind.” (JEL D72, E32, G01, G21, G28)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"44 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135216640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michael D. Frakes, Jonathan Gruber, Timothy Justicz
Recent debates over health care reform, including in the context of the Military Health System (MHS) and Veterans Administration, highlight the dispute between public and private provision of health care services. Using novel data on childbirth claims from the MHS and drawing on the combination of plausibly exogenous patient moves and heterogeneity across bases in the availability of base hospitals, we identify the impact of receiving obstetrical care on versus off military bases. We find evidence that off-base care is associated with slightly greater resource intensity, but also notably better outcomes, suggesting marginal efficiency gains from care privatization. (JEL H51, H56, I11, I18, J13, L33)
{"title":"Public and Private Options in Practice: The Military Health System","authors":"Michael D. Frakes, Jonathan Gruber, Timothy Justicz","doi":"10.1257/pol.20210625","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210625","url":null,"abstract":"Recent debates over health care reform, including in the context of the Military Health System (MHS) and Veterans Administration, highlight the dispute between public and private provision of health care services. Using novel data on childbirth claims from the MHS and drawing on the combination of plausibly exogenous patient moves and heterogeneity across bases in the availability of base hospitals, we identify the impact of receiving obstetrical care on versus off military bases. We find evidence that off-base care is associated with slightly greater resource intensity, but also notably better outcomes, suggesting marginal efficiency gains from care privatization. (JEL H51, H56, I11, I18, J13, L33)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136103392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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