Ekaterina Jardim, M. Long, R. Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob L. Vigdor, Hilary Wething
Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)
{"title":"Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle","authors":"Ekaterina Jardim, M. Long, R. Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob L. Vigdor, Hilary Wething","doi":"10.1257/pol.20180578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180578","url":null,"abstract":"Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75594529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
School choice programs break the link between residential location and school attendance, and should weaken the capitalization of school quality into house prices. For the first time, I quantify the effect of one such program—charter school expansions—across several states using a dataset covering charter entries and house prices. I embed an event study of charter entry into a boundary discontinuity design and find that, on average, school choice decreases the valuation of traditional schools by four percentage points. Suggestive evidence shows school choice can lead to neighborhood change through resorting as school boundaries become less important. (JEL H75, I21, I24, I28, R23, R31)
{"title":"The Valuation of Local School Quality under School Choice","authors":"Angela L. Zheng","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200678","url":null,"abstract":"School choice programs break the link between residential location and school attendance, and should weaken the capitalization of school quality into house prices. For the first time, I quantify the effect of one such program—charter school expansions—across several states using a dataset covering charter entries and house prices. I embed an event study of charter entry into a boundary discontinuity design and find that, on average, school choice decreases the valuation of traditional schools by four percentage points. Suggestive evidence shows school choice can lead to neighborhood change through resorting as school boundaries become less important. (JEL H75, I21, I24, I28, R23, R31)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81995132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The measles vaccine was introduced in 1963. Take-up of the vaccine in the United States occurred quickly and universally, leading to reductions in morbidity and mortality. New biological evidence on how the measles virus interacts with our immune system indicates the impact of the measles vaccine may be underestimated. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, I find evidence the measles vaccine increased earnings and employment. Long-term follow-up of adults finds an increase in income of 1. 1 percent and positive effects on employment. This increase in income is not from an increase in hours worked but rather from greater productivity. (JEL I12, I18, J22, J24, J31)
{"title":"The Long-Term Effects of Measles Vaccination on Earnings and Employment","authors":"Alicia Atwood","doi":"10.1257/pol.20190509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190509","url":null,"abstract":"The measles vaccine was introduced in 1963. Take-up of the vaccine in the United States occurred quickly and universally, leading to reductions in morbidity and mortality. New biological evidence on how the measles virus interacts with our immune system indicates the impact of the measles vaccine may be underestimated. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, I find evidence the measles vaccine increased earnings and employment. Long-term follow-up of adults finds an increase in income of 1. 1 percent and positive effects on employment. This increase in income is not from an increase in hours worked but rather from greater productivity. (JEL I12, I18, J22, J24, J31)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"251 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73608770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper estimates the impact of hospital crowding on medical treatment decisions and patient health outcomes. Exploiting pseudorandom variation in emergency admissions, I find that a one-standard-deviation admission shock increases the unplanned readmission rate by 4.1 percent. Nonparametric and heterogeneity analyses suggest that “quicker and sicker” discharges contribute to the additional readmissions. The crowding impacts are larger in hospital departments with fewer beds, sicker patients, and stronger incentives to admit nonemergency patients. (JEL H51, I11, I12, I18)
{"title":"Does Hospital Crowding Matter? Evidence from Trauma and Orthopedics in England","authors":"T. Hoe","doi":"10.1257/pol.20180672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180672","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of hospital crowding on medical treatment decisions and patient health outcomes. Exploiting pseudorandom variation in emergency admissions, I find that a one-standard-deviation admission shock increases the unplanned readmission rate by 4.1 percent. Nonparametric and heterogeneity analyses suggest that “quicker and sicker” discharges contribute to the additional readmissions. The crowding impacts are larger in hospital departments with fewer beds, sicker patients, and stronger incentives to admit nonemergency patients. (JEL H51, I11, I12, I18)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82136136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates how a common form of environmental regulation—air quality standards—affects exporters. We develop a simple theoretical model to show how the design of these standards causes (i) some firms to stop exporting and (ii) a reduction in the export volumes of affected continuing exporters. We exploit quasi-experimental variation resulting from the design of Canadian air quality standards to test these predictions empirically. Our estimates confirm our model’s predictions: we find that for the most affected manufacturers, regulation reduced export volumes by 32 percent and increased the likelihood plants stop exporting by 5 percentage points. (JEL D12, F14, F18, Q53, Q58)
{"title":"Do Environmental Regulations Affect the Decision to Export?","authors":"Jevan Cherniwchan, Nouri Najjar","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200290","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how a common form of environmental regulation—air quality standards—affects exporters. We develop a simple theoretical model to show how the design of these standards causes (i) some firms to stop exporting and (ii) a reduction in the export volumes of affected continuing exporters. We exploit quasi-experimental variation resulting from the design of Canadian air quality standards to test these predictions empirically. Our estimates confirm our model’s predictions: we find that for the most affected manufacturers, regulation reduced export volumes by 32 percent and increased the likelihood plants stop exporting by 5 percentage points. (JEL D12, F14, F18, Q53, Q58)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87645437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pharmaceutical companies market to physicians through individual detailing accompanied by monetary or in-kind transfers. Large compensation payments to a small number of physicians account for most of this promotional spending. Studying US promotional payments and prescriptions for anticoagulant drugs, we investigate how peer influence broadens the payments' reach. Following a compensation payment, prescriptions for the marketed drug increase by both the paid physician and the paid physician's peers. Payments increase prescriptions to both recommended and contraindicated patients. Over three years, marketed anticoagulant prescriptions rose 23 percent due to payments, with peer spillovers contributing a quarter of the increase.
{"title":"Drug Diffusion Through Peer Networks: The Influence of Industry Payments.","authors":"Leila Agha, Dan Zeltzer","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200044","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Pharmaceutical companies market to physicians through individual detailing accompanied by monetary or in-kind transfers. Large compensation payments to a small number of physicians account for most of this promotional spending. Studying US promotional payments and prescriptions for anticoagulant drugs, we investigate how peer influence broadens the payments' reach. Following a compensation payment, prescriptions for the marketed drug increase by both the paid physician and the paid physician's peers. Payments increase prescriptions to both recommended and contraindicated patients. Over three years, marketed anticoagulant prescriptions rose 23 percent due to payments, with peer spillovers contributing a quarter of the increase.</p>","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"14 2","pages":"1-33"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9387671/pdf/nihms-1764085.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40714676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many scholars have studied the employment effects of minimum wages, but little is known about effects on the composition of hires. I investigate whether Germany’s minimum wage introduction raised hiring standards, using worker fixed effects as a proxy for worker productivity. For the least productive workers hired, the minimum wage led to a 4 percentile point shift in the productivity distribution. This increase is missed using standard observable measures of worker productivity. The effects are larger with greater pre-reform screening intensity—indicating an employer response. This more selective hiring compensates about two-thirds of higher wage costs for the least productive hires. (JEL J23, J24, J31, J38, M51)
{"title":"Raising the Bar: Minimum Wages and Employers’ Hiring Standards","authors":"Sebastian Butschek","doi":"10.1257/pol.20190534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190534","url":null,"abstract":"Many scholars have studied the employment effects of minimum wages, but little is known about effects on the composition of hires. I investigate whether Germany’s minimum wage introduction raised hiring standards, using worker fixed effects as a proxy for worker productivity. For the least productive workers hired, the minimum wage led to a 4 percentile point shift in the productivity distribution. This increase is missed using standard observable measures of worker productivity. The effects are larger with greater pre-reform screening intensity—indicating an employer response. This more selective hiring compensates about two-thirds of higher wage costs for the least productive hires. (JEL J23, J24, J31, J38, M51)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83045312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides evidence that replacing minimum unemployment benefits with a basic income of equal size has minor employment effects at best. We examine an experiment in Finland in which 2,000 benefit recipients were randomized to receive a monthly basic income. The experiment lowered participation tax rates by 23 percentage points for full-time employment. Despite the considerable increase in work incentives, days in employment remained statistically unchanged in the first year of the experiment. Moreover, even though all job search requirements were waived, participation in reemployment services remained high. (JEL C93, H24, H53, I38, J64, J65)
{"title":"Removing Welfare Traps: Employment Responses in the Finnish Basic Income Experiment","authors":"Jouko Verho, Kari Hämäläinen, Ohto Kanninen","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200143","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides evidence that replacing minimum unemployment benefits with a basic income of equal size has minor employment effects at best. We examine an experiment in Finland in which 2,000 benefit recipients were randomized to receive a monthly basic income. The experiment lowered participation tax rates by 23 percentage points for full-time employment. Despite the considerable increase in work incentives, days in employment remained statistically unchanged in the first year of the experiment. Moreover, even though all job search requirements were waived, participation in reemployment services remained high. (JEL C93, H24, H53, I38, J64, J65)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138516460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the impacts of two distinct types of school spending on student outcomes. State-imposed revenue limits cap the total amount of revenue that a school district in Wisconsin can raise unless the district holds a referendum asking voters to exceed the cap. Importantly, Wisconsin law requires districts to hold separate referenda for operational and capital expenditures, which allows for estimating their independent effects. Leveraging close elections in a dynamic regression discontinuity framework, I find that increases in operational spending have substantial positive effects on test scores, dropout rates, and postsecondary enrollment, but additional capital expenditures have little impact. (JEL D72, H75, I21, I22, I28)
{"title":"School Spending and Student Outcomes: Evidence from Revenue Limit Elections in Wisconsin","authors":"E. Jason Baron","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200226","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impacts of two distinct types of school spending on student outcomes. State-imposed revenue limits cap the total amount of revenue that a school district in Wisconsin can raise unless the district holds a referendum asking voters to exceed the cap. Importantly, Wisconsin law requires districts to hold separate referenda for operational and capital expenditures, which allows for estimating their independent effects. Leveraging close elections in a dynamic regression discontinuity framework, I find that increases in operational spending have substantial positive effects on test scores, dropout rates, and postsecondary enrollment, but additional capital expenditures have little impact. (JEL D72, H75, I21, I22, I28)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138516466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In recent decades, gentrification has transformed American central city neighborhoods. I estimate a spatial equilibrium model to show that the rising value of high-skilled workers’ time contributes to the gentrification of American central cities. I show that the increasing value of time raises the cost of commuting and exogenously increases the demand for central locations by high-skilled workers. While change in the value of time has a modest direct effect on gentrification of central cities, the effect is substantially magnified by endogenous amenity change driven by the changes in local skill mix. (JEL J22, J24, R21, R23)
{"title":"The Rising Value of Time and the Origin of Urban Gentrification","authors":"Yichen Su","doi":"10.1257/pol.20190550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190550","url":null,"abstract":"In recent decades, gentrification has transformed American central city neighborhoods. I estimate a spatial equilibrium model to show that the rising value of high-skilled workers’ time contributes to the gentrification of American central cities. I show that the increasing value of time raises the cost of commuting and exogenously increases the demand for central locations by high-skilled workers. While change in the value of time has a modest direct effect on gentrification of central cities, the effect is substantially magnified by endogenous amenity change driven by the changes in local skill mix. (JEL J22, J24, R21, R23)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138516434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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