I analyze how two reforms, introduced to expand college access in Brazil, impacted enrollments of low-SES students. The first policy centralized applications in a nationwide platform (SISU), and the second expanded affirmative action quotas (AA) to a uniform share of 50 percent of vacancies offered by degree. Results show that SISU changes enrollment decisions of high-SES students, crowding out low-SES groups from the least competitive degrees disproportionately. In contrast, AA increases enrollments of low-SES individuals not only mechanically but also through behavioral responses. Finally, their interaction creates a complementary effect, protecting the low-SES groups from the crowding-out of centralization. (JEL I23, I24, I28, O15)
{"title":"Centralized Admissions, Affirmative Action, and Access of Low-Income Students to Higher Education","authors":"Ursula Mello","doi":"10.1257/pol.20190639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190639","url":null,"abstract":"I analyze how two reforms, introduced to expand college access in Brazil, impacted enrollments of low-SES students. The first policy centralized applications in a nationwide platform (SISU), and the second expanded affirmative action quotas (AA) to a uniform share of 50 percent of vacancies offered by degree. Results show that SISU changes enrollment decisions of high-SES students, crowding out low-SES groups from the least competitive degrees disproportionately. In contrast, AA increases enrollments of low-SES individuals not only mechanically but also through behavioral responses. Finally, their interaction creates a complementary effect, protecting the low-SES groups from the crowding-out of centralization. (JEL I23, I24, I28, O15)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84428766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. Pollakowski, D. Weinberg, Fredrik W. Andersson, J. Haltiwanger, G. Palloni, Mark Kutzbach
We create a national-level longitudinal dataset to analyze how children’s participation in public and voucher-assisted housing affects age-26 earnings and adult incarceration. Naïve OLS estimates suggest that returns to subsidized housing participation are negative, but that relationship is driven by household selection into assisted housing. Household fixed effects estimates indicate that additional years of public housing increase earnings by 6.2 percent for females and 6.1 percent for males, while voucher-assisted housing increases earnings by 4.8 percent for females and 2.7 percent for males. Childhood participation in assisted housing also reduces the likelihood of adult incarceration for all household race/ethnicity groups. (JEL I38, J13, J31, K42, R38)
{"title":"Childhood Housing and Adult Outcomes: A Between-Siblings Analysis of Housing Vouchers and Public Housing","authors":"H. Pollakowski, D. Weinberg, Fredrik W. Andersson, J. Haltiwanger, G. Palloni, Mark Kutzbach","doi":"10.1257/pol.20180144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180144","url":null,"abstract":"We create a national-level longitudinal dataset to analyze how children’s participation in public and voucher-assisted housing affects age-26 earnings and adult incarceration. Naïve OLS estimates suggest that returns to subsidized housing participation are negative, but that relationship is driven by household selection into assisted housing. Household fixed effects estimates indicate that additional years of public housing increase earnings by 6.2 percent for females and 6.1 percent for males, while voucher-assisted housing increases earnings by 4.8 percent for females and 2.7 percent for males. Childhood participation in assisted housing also reduces the likelihood of adult incarceration for all household race/ethnicity groups. (JEL I38, J13, J31, K42, R38)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90874877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I measure the effect of child marriage bans on female educational attainment and employment using a difference-in-differences approach employing subnational spatial and cohort variation in a sample of over 250,000 female respondents from 17 low- and middle-income countries banning child marriage between 1995 and 2012. My results using the full study sample suggest that raising the minimum legal age of marriage to 18 increased age at marriage, age at first birth, and the likelihood of employment. In urban areas, the bans also reduced child marriage and increased educational attainment. Effects of the bans typically were smaller in rural areas, in countries with a lower pre-ban minimum legal age at marriage, for cohorts with lower temporal exposure to the ban, and for reducing marriage at ages just below 18, consistent with imperfect enforcement. (JEL I21, J12, J13, J16, J18, K38, O15)
{"title":"Child Marriage Bans and Female Schooling and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Natural Experiments in 17 Low- and Middle-Income Countries","authors":"Nicholas L. Wilson","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200008","url":null,"abstract":"I measure the effect of child marriage bans on female educational attainment and employment using a difference-in-differences approach employing subnational spatial and cohort variation in a sample of over 250,000 female respondents from 17 low- and middle-income countries banning child marriage between 1995 and 2012. My results using the full study sample suggest that raising the minimum legal age of marriage to 18 increased age at marriage, age at first birth, and the likelihood of employment. In urban areas, the bans also reduced child marriage and increased educational attainment. Effects of the bans typically were smaller in rural areas, in countries with a lower pre-ban minimum legal age at marriage, for cohorts with lower temporal exposure to the ban, and for reducing marriage at ages just below 18, consistent with imperfect enforcement. (JEL I21, J12, J13, J16, J18, K38, O15)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83598243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the impact of temperature on mortality in Mexico using daily data over the period 1998–2017 and find that 3.8 percent of deaths in Mexico are caused by suboptimal temperature (26,000 every year). However, 92 percent of weather-related deaths are induced by cold (<12°C) or mildly cold ( 12–20°C) days and only 2 percent by outstandingly hot days (>32°C). Furthermore, temperatures are twice as likely to kill people in the bottom half of the income distribution. Finally, we show causal evidence that the Seguro Popular, a universal health care policy, has saved at least 1,600 lives per year from cold weather since 2004. (JEL I12, I13, I14, O13, O15, Q54)
{"title":"Mortality, Temperature, and Public Health Provision: Evidence from Mexico","authors":"F. Cohen, Antoine Dechezleprêtre","doi":"10.1257/pol.20180594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180594","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the impact of temperature on mortality in Mexico using daily data over the period 1998–2017 and find that 3.8 percent of deaths in Mexico are caused by suboptimal temperature (26,000 every year). However, 92 percent of weather-related deaths are induced by cold (<12°C) or mildly cold ( 12–20°C) days and only 2 percent by outstandingly hot days (>32°C). Furthermore, temperatures are twice as likely to kill people in the bottom half of the income distribution. Finally, we show causal evidence that the Seguro Popular, a universal health care policy, has saved at least 1,600 lives per year from cold weather since 2004. (JEL I12, I13, I14, O13, O15, Q54)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84023315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ekaterina Jardim, M. Long, R. Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob L. Vigdor, Hilary Wething
Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)
{"title":"Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle","authors":"Ekaterina Jardim, M. Long, R. Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob L. Vigdor, Hilary Wething","doi":"10.1257/pol.20180578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180578","url":null,"abstract":"Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75594529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The rapid expansion of charter schools has fueled concerns about their impact on traditional public schools. I estimate the effect of charter openings on traditional public schools in Massachusetts and North Carolina by comparing schools near actual charter sites to those near proposed sites that were never occupied. I find charter openings reduced public school enrollment by around 5 percent and reduced White enrollment in North Carolina. I find no impact on student achievement, and my 95 percent confidence intervals rule out effects larger than ± 0.05 standard deviations. I find no effects on attendance or suspensions. (JEL H75, I21, I28, J15)
{"title":"The Effect of Charter School Openings on Traditional Public Schools in Massachusetts and North Carolina","authors":"Kirsten Slungaard Mumma","doi":"10.1257/pol.20190457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190457","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid expansion of charter schools has fueled concerns about their impact on traditional public schools. I estimate the effect of charter openings on traditional public schools in Massachusetts and North Carolina by comparing schools near actual charter sites to those near proposed sites that were never occupied. I find charter openings reduced public school enrollment by around 5 percent and reduced White enrollment in North Carolina. I find no impact on student achievement, and my 95 percent confidence intervals rule out effects larger than ± 0.05 standard deviations. I find no effects on attendance or suspensions. (JEL H75, I21, I28, J15)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"157 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83435952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
School choice programs break the link between residential location and school attendance, and should weaken the capitalization of school quality into house prices. For the first time, I quantify the effect of one such program—charter school expansions—across several states using a dataset covering charter entries and house prices. I embed an event study of charter entry into a boundary discontinuity design and find that, on average, school choice decreases the valuation of traditional schools by four percentage points. Suggestive evidence shows school choice can lead to neighborhood change through resorting as school boundaries become less important. (JEL H75, I21, I24, I28, R23, R31)
{"title":"The Valuation of Local School Quality under School Choice","authors":"Angela L. Zheng","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200678","url":null,"abstract":"School choice programs break the link between residential location and school attendance, and should weaken the capitalization of school quality into house prices. For the first time, I quantify the effect of one such program—charter school expansions—across several states using a dataset covering charter entries and house prices. I embed an event study of charter entry into a boundary discontinuity design and find that, on average, school choice decreases the valuation of traditional schools by four percentage points. Suggestive evidence shows school choice can lead to neighborhood change through resorting as school boundaries become less important. (JEL H75, I21, I24, I28, R23, R31)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81995132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The measles vaccine was introduced in 1963. Take-up of the vaccine in the United States occurred quickly and universally, leading to reductions in morbidity and mortality. New biological evidence on how the measles virus interacts with our immune system indicates the impact of the measles vaccine may be underestimated. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, I find evidence the measles vaccine increased earnings and employment. Long-term follow-up of adults finds an increase in income of 1. 1 percent and positive effects on employment. This increase in income is not from an increase in hours worked but rather from greater productivity. (JEL I12, I18, J22, J24, J31)
{"title":"The Long-Term Effects of Measles Vaccination on Earnings and Employment","authors":"Alicia Atwood","doi":"10.1257/pol.20190509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190509","url":null,"abstract":"The measles vaccine was introduced in 1963. Take-up of the vaccine in the United States occurred quickly and universally, leading to reductions in morbidity and mortality. New biological evidence on how the measles virus interacts with our immune system indicates the impact of the measles vaccine may be underestimated. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, I find evidence the measles vaccine increased earnings and employment. Long-term follow-up of adults finds an increase in income of 1. 1 percent and positive effects on employment. This increase in income is not from an increase in hours worked but rather from greater productivity. (JEL I12, I18, J22, J24, J31)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"251 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73608770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates how a common form of environmental regulation—air quality standards—affects exporters. We develop a simple theoretical model to show how the design of these standards causes (i) some firms to stop exporting and (ii) a reduction in the export volumes of affected continuing exporters. We exploit quasi-experimental variation resulting from the design of Canadian air quality standards to test these predictions empirically. Our estimates confirm our model’s predictions: we find that for the most affected manufacturers, regulation reduced export volumes by 32 percent and increased the likelihood plants stop exporting by 5 percentage points. (JEL D12, F14, F18, Q53, Q58)
{"title":"Do Environmental Regulations Affect the Decision to Export?","authors":"Jevan Cherniwchan, Nouri Najjar","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200290","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how a common form of environmental regulation—air quality standards—affects exporters. We develop a simple theoretical model to show how the design of these standards causes (i) some firms to stop exporting and (ii) a reduction in the export volumes of affected continuing exporters. We exploit quasi-experimental variation resulting from the design of Canadian air quality standards to test these predictions empirically. Our estimates confirm our model’s predictions: we find that for the most affected manufacturers, regulation reduced export volumes by 32 percent and increased the likelihood plants stop exporting by 5 percentage points. (JEL D12, F14, F18, Q53, Q58)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87645437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper estimates the impact of hospital crowding on medical treatment decisions and patient health outcomes. Exploiting pseudorandom variation in emergency admissions, I find that a one-standard-deviation admission shock increases the unplanned readmission rate by 4.1 percent. Nonparametric and heterogeneity analyses suggest that “quicker and sicker” discharges contribute to the additional readmissions. The crowding impacts are larger in hospital departments with fewer beds, sicker patients, and stronger incentives to admit nonemergency patients. (JEL H51, I11, I12, I18)
{"title":"Does Hospital Crowding Matter? Evidence from Trauma and Orthopedics in England","authors":"T. Hoe","doi":"10.1257/pol.20180672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180672","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of hospital crowding on medical treatment decisions and patient health outcomes. Exploiting pseudorandom variation in emergency admissions, I find that a one-standard-deviation admission shock increases the unplanned readmission rate by 4.1 percent. Nonparametric and heterogeneity analyses suggest that “quicker and sicker” discharges contribute to the additional readmissions. The crowding impacts are larger in hospital departments with fewer beds, sicker patients, and stronger incentives to admit nonemergency patients. (JEL H51, I11, I12, I18)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82136136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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