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Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019 波动性、调整和选举冲击:英国脱欧和2019年英国大选
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S1049096523000422
E. Fieldhouse, Geoffrey Evans, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, Christopher Prosser, J. Bailey
The 2019 UK General Election had seismic consequences for British politics. After three years of political turmoil following the 2016 referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU), the 2019 election marked a victory for the Leave side of the Brexit debate, putting to rest questions of a second referendum and any chance of Parliament blocking the Withdrawal Bill. The United Kingdom left the EU on January 31, 2020. Although there were clear consequences for Britain’s EU membership, there is debate about whether 2019 was a “Brexit election” (Prosser 2020)—even a critical election (Green 2021)—or the continuation of long-term realignments in British politics (Cutts et al. 2020; Jennings and Stoker 2017). By most accounts, Brexit dominated the 2019 election as a political issue, but whether this represents a key moment in a process of realignment of voters in Britain remains to be seen.
2019年英国大选对英国政治产生了地震般的影响。2016年英国脱欧公投后,英国经历了三年的政治动荡,2019年的选举标志着脱欧辩论中脱欧派的胜利,第二次公投的问题以及议会阻止脱欧法案的可能性都得到了解决。英国于2020年1月31日脱离欧盟。尽管脱欧对英国的欧盟成员国身份产生了明显的影响,但关于2019年是“英国脱欧选举”(Prosser 2020)——甚至是一场关键选举(Green 2021)——还是英国政治长期重组的延续(Cutts et al. 2020;Jennings and Stoker 2017)。从大多数人的角度来看,英国脱欧作为一个政治问题主导了2019年的选举,但这是否代表着英国选民重新调整过程中的关键时刻,仍有待观察。
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引用次数: 1
Divided Images: How the English Perceive Nationhood and How This Shapes Voting and Opinion 分裂的形象:英国人如何看待国家地位,以及这如何影响投票和意见
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S1049096523000471
Eric P. Kaufmann, David L. Leal, Joe R. Tafoya
Do people’s political beliefs alter the emphasis they place on different symbols when constructing their “personal” national identity (Cohen 1996)? Does the content of their national identity affect how they vote? These are the central questions we address in this article, focusing on England but using the United States as a comparative case to demonstrate common dynamics.
人们的政治信仰是否会改变他们在构建“个人”国家认同时对不同符号的强调(Cohen 1996)?他们的民族认同会影响他们的投票方式吗?这些是我们在本文中要解决的核心问题,本文将重点放在英国,但将美国作为一个比较案例来展示共同的动态。
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引用次数: 0
What Happens When Mini-Publics Are Held in a Deeply Divided Place? Evidence from Northern Ireland 当迷你公众在一个分裂严重的地方举行时会发生什么?来自北爱尔兰的证据
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S1049096523000409
James Pow, John Garry
A pessimistic view of the potential of deliberative mini-publics to effectively contribute to democratic decision making on highly contested issues in deeply divided places asserts that (1) deliberative quality would be low due to the bitterness prompted by discussion of divisive issues, and (2) levels of opinion change would be low given the stubbornly enduring nature of political attitudes in divided places. We empirically examined this pessimistic view using a quasi-experiment involving mini-publics on two separate issues in Northern Ireland: (1) the contentious ethno-national question of Northern Ireland’s constitutional status, and (2) the much less contested and non-ethno-national issue of social care. Contrary to the pessimistic view, we find evidence that from the perspective of the participants themselves, deliberative quality was higher in the mini-public on an ethno-national issue. However, in line with the pessimistic view, levels of self-reported opinion change were significantly lower in the ethno-national mini-public. Overall, the findings highlight the potential for carefully designed deliberative mini-publics to address divisive ethno-national issues: they provide a space for participants to engage with such issues in open and respectful discussion—even if the prospects for attitudinal change are more limited.
一种悲观的观点认为,在分歧严重的地区,协商小公众对高度争议问题的民主决策做出有效贡献的潜力是:(1)由于讨论分歧问题引起的痛苦,协商的质量会很低;(2)由于分歧地区政治态度的顽固持久性,意见变化的水平会很低。我们对这一悲观观点进行了实证检验,使用了一项涉及北爱尔兰两个独立问题的小型公众的准实验:(1)有争议的北爱尔兰宪法地位的民族问题,以及(2)争议较小且非民族的社会关怀问题。与悲观观点相反,我们发现证据表明,从参与者自身的角度来看,小型公众在民族问题上的审议质量更高。然而,与悲观观点一致的是,自我报告的意见变化水平在民族-民族小公众中明显较低。总的来说,研究结果强调了精心设计的审议迷你公众的潜力,以解决分裂的种族-国家问题:它们为参与者提供了一个空间,让他们在公开和尊重的讨论中参与这些问题——即使态度改变的前景更加有限。
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引用次数: 1
How Divided Is Britain? Symbolic Boundaries and Social Cohesion in Post-Brexit Britain 英国到底有多分裂?英国脱欧后的象征边界与社会凝聚力
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S1049096523000240
Lindsay Richards, Anthony F. Heath
ABSTRACT In post-Brexit and post-devolution Britain, relationships among the four nations appear fragile. This article aims to discover where British citizens draw the symbolic boundaries that define in-group and out-group members between nations—in particular, England, Scotland, and Wales—and within England. Within England, we also examine class divides and the North–South divide. We operationalize symbolic boundaries through a set of new innovative measures administered in an online survey in 2019. Questions ascertain agreement that the various groups “share my values,” are “people I could get on with,” and are “straightforward and honest.” Results of our descriptive analysis suggest that boundaries are blurred between the British and the Welsh but sharper for the Scottish. We also find sharp but asymmetrical boundaries within England, between the working class and the middle class, and between Northerners and Southerners. Regional differences in perceptions of Southerners map closely onto those of how well Westminster looks after regional interests, which suggests that power imbalances reduce social cohesion.
在脱欧和权力下放后的英国,四国之间的关系显得脆弱。这篇文章的目的是发现英国公民在哪里划定了国家之间(特别是英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士)和英格兰内部的群体内和群体外成员的象征性边界。在英格兰,我们还研究了阶级分化和南北分化。我们在2019年的一项在线调查中通过一系列新的创新措施来实施象征性边界。问题确定了不同的团体“分享我的价值观”,是“我可以相处的人”,并且是“坦率和诚实的”。我们的描述性分析结果表明,英国人和威尔士人之间的界限是模糊的,但苏格兰人之间的界限则更清晰。我们还发现,在英格兰内部,工人阶级和中产阶级之间,北方人和南方人之间,存在着明显但不对称的界限。对南方人看法的地区差异与威斯敏斯特如何照顾地区利益密切相关,这表明权力不平衡降低了社会凝聚力。
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引用次数: 0
The End of the Ethnic Bloc Vote? Ethnic Minority Leavers After the Brexit Referendum 民族集团投票的终结?英国脱欧公投后的少数民族脱欧者
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S1049096523000288
Nicole S. Martin, M. Sobolewska
The 2016 referendum on UK membership in the European Union (EU) led to a realignment of voters along their referendum position (Fieldhouse et al. 2021; Sobolewska and Ford 2020). By December 2019, both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party received approximately 80% of their support from voters who had been on “their” side during the referendum (Fieldhouse et al. 2021). Brexit identities were akin to partisanship, with affective polarization and perceptual screening (Sobolewska and Ford 2020; Sorace and Hobolt 2021). Research also traces the Brexit vote to a growing values divide (Evans and Menon 2017), with ethnocentric attitudes found on opposing sides of the referendum (Sobolewska and Ford 2020). The views of ethnic minority voters, as traditional victims of white ethnocentrism, have been seen largely in this debate as the same as the identity of liberal Remainers. However, despite the assumption that minorities naturally would fall on the side opposing white ethnocentrism, the referendum marked the biggest departure from the traditional ethnic minorities bloc vote since 2005, when a substantial minority of Muslim voters deserted Labour over the Iraq War (Curtice, Fisher, and Steed 2005). The Leave side in the 2016 referendum received approximately one third of the votes of ethnic minorities (Martin, Sobolewska, and Begum 2020), despite Leave also drawing a majority of its support from “UKIP-curious” voters (Evans and Mellon 2019) who had voted for or considered supporting the anti-immigrant radical-right United Kingdom Independence Party.
2016年关于英国是否留在欧盟(EU)的公投导致选民沿着他们的公投立场重新调整(Fieldhouse等人,2021年;Sobolewska and Ford 2020)。到2019年12月,保守党和工党都获得了大约80%的支持,这些支持来自在公投期间站在“他们”一边的选民(Fieldhouse et al. 2021)。英国脱欧身份类似于党派之分,存在情感两极分化和感知筛选(Sobolewska和Ford 2020;Sorace and Hobolt 2021)。研究还将英国脱欧投票归因于日益严重的价值观分歧(Evans and Menon 2017),在公投的对立双方都存在种族中心主义态度(Sobolewska and Ford 2020)。作为白人种族中心主义的传统受害者,少数族裔选民的观点在这场辩论中基本上被视为与自由派留欧派的认同相同。然而,尽管假设少数民族自然会站在反对白人种族中心主义的一边,这次公投标志着自2005年以来传统少数民族集团投票的最大背离,当时大量少数穆斯林选民因伊拉克战争而抛弃了工党(Curtice, Fisher, and Steed, 2005)。在2016年的公投中,脱欧派获得了少数民族(Martin, Sobolewska和Begum, 2020)约三分之一的选票,尽管脱欧派也获得了“对英国独立党好奇”的选民(Evans和Mellon, 2019)的大部分支持,这些选民曾投票支持或考虑支持反移民的极右翼英国独立党。
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引用次数: 1
Brexit as an Identity: Political Identities and Policy Norms 英国脱欧作为一种身份:政治身份与政策规范
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S1049096523000367
James Tilley, S. Hobolt
The decision by a narrow majority of British voters to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016 was a political earthquake that few had seen coming. It produced new political divisions, not only between the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe but also within the United Kingdom. In particular, the referendum campaign and the outcome generated two new political identities: “Leavers” and “Remainers.” These Brexit identities crosscut partisan identities and voters formed deep emotional attachments to them (Curtice 2018; Evans and Schaffner 2019). Moreover, this Brexit divide led to affective polarization in the form of out-group animosity and discrimination (Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley 2021). It also shaped perceptions of the economy (Sorace and Hobolt 2021), attitudes toward immigration (Pickup et al. 2021), vote choices (Hobolt and Rodon 2020), and losers’ consent (Schaffner 2021; Tilley and Hobolt 2023a). Brexit identities have been shown to be salient and politically consequential. Yet, we know much less about whether these new identities are rooted in policy norms that go beyond preferences about the desirability of leaving the EU. In this article, we thus explore the nature of Brexit identities and how they relate to policy norms.
2016年,英国选民以微弱多数决定退出欧盟,这是一场几乎没有人预料到的政治地震。它产生了新的政治分歧,不仅在英国和欧洲其他国家之间,而且在英国内部。特别是,公投运动和结果产生了两种新的政治身份:“脱欧派”和“留欧派”。这些脱欧身份跨越了党派身份,选民对他们形成了深刻的情感依恋(Curtice 2018;Evans and Schaffner 2019)。此外,这种脱欧分歧导致了以群体外仇恨和歧视的形式出现的情感两极分化(Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley 2021)。它还影响了人们对经济的看法(Sorace and Hobolt 2021)、对移民的态度(Pickup et al. 2021)、投票选择(Hobolt and Rodon 2020)和失败者的同意(Schaffner 2021;蒂利和霍伯特2023a)。英国脱欧身份已被证明具有突出和政治意义。然而,我们对这些新身份是否根植于政策规范的了解要少得多,这些政策规范超越了人们对是否愿意离开欧盟的偏好。因此,在本文中,我们将探讨英国脱欧身份的本质及其与政策规范的关系。
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引用次数: 1
Symposium on the Contemporary Politics of the United Kingdom: Introduction and Reflections 英国当代政治研讨会:介绍与反思
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S1049096523000410
David L. Leal
Although my evidence is anecdotal and impressionistic, my sense is that political science teaching, research, and careers are less likely to involve UK politics and the Special Relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom.
虽然我的证据是轶事和印象,但我的感觉是,政治学教学、研究和职业不太可能涉及英国政治和英美之间的特殊关系。
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引用次数: 0
As We Like It: Did the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum Reveal the “Will of the People?” 如我们所愿:2016年英国脱欧公投揭示了“民意”吗?
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/S104909652300046X
Kristoffer Ahlstrom-Vij, W. Allen
Rhetoric surrounding the United Kingdom’s 2016 referendum on continued European Union (EU) membership frequently has invoked the “will of the people.” Addressing the House of Commons in March 2019, then–Prime Minster Theresa May stated that “my sense of responsibility and duty has meant that I have kept working to ensure that we deliver on the result and the will of the people” (March 27, 2019).1 May’s successor, Boris Johnson, appealed to the same notion when suggesting in the Daily Telegraph (September 15, 2019) that opposition parties were “united in wanting to cancel the referendum result…and overturn the will of the people.” On the other side of the debate, Caroline Lucas (currently the sole Member of Parliament for the UK’s Green Party) stated that “[e]very recent opinion poll shows that the will of the people has changed since [the referendum]” (December 4, 2018).
围绕2016年英国是否继续留在欧盟的公投,言论经常援引“人民的意愿”。2019年3月,时任英国首相特蕾莎·梅在下议院发表讲话时表示,“我的责任感和责任感意味着我一直在努力确保我们实现结果和人民的意愿。”(2019年3月27日)1梅的继任者鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)在2019年9月15日的英国《每日电讯报》(Daily Telegraph)上表示,反对党“团结一致,想要取消公投结果……推翻人民的意愿”,也表达了同样的观点。另一方面,卡罗琳·卢卡斯(现任英国绿党议会唯一议员)表示,“最近的民意调查显示,自[公投]以来,人民的意愿发生了变化。”(2018年12月4日)。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating Research Methods Training into Elective Courses in an Undergraduate Curriculum 将研究方法训练纳入本科选修课程
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-03 DOI: 10.1017/s1049096523000483
G. Arıkan, Ðorđe Milosav
This article discusses the integration of research methods training into a third-year elective undergraduate course. We suggest that the building blocks of research design can be embedded in courses without compromising their content. This introduces research methods to students who have no prior methods training or gives students with methods training more opportunities to engage in research design. We present evidence that this approach increased students’ self-assessed knowledge of and confidence with research-related skills, especially among those without prior methods training. Additionally, the analysis of research proposals—the final assignment of the course—revealed that most students were able to apply core research design skills. These findings demonstrate that progress in research methods skills is possible across the curriculum.
本文探讨了将研究方法训练融入本科三年级选修课的问题。我们建议,研究设计的构建模块可以嵌入到课程中,而不会影响其内容。这给没有受过方法训练的学生介绍了研究方法,或者给受过方法训练的学生更多的机会从事研究设计。我们提供的证据表明,这种方法增加了学生对研究相关技能的自我评估知识和信心,特别是在那些没有事先接受过方法培训的学生中。此外,对研究计划的分析——课程的最后作业——表明大多数学生能够运用核心研究设计技能。这些发现表明,在整个课程中,研究方法技能的进步是可能的。
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引用次数: 0
Explaining Partisan Gaps in Satisfaction with Democracy after Contentious Elections: Evidence from a US 2020 Election Panel Survey 解释有争议的选举后对民主满意度的党派差距:来自美国2020年选举小组调查的证据
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI: 10.1017/s1049096523000458
Sam Whitt, Alixandra B. Yanus, Mark Setzler, B. McDonald, J. Graeber, Gordon Ballingrud, Martin J. Kifer
What effects do contentious elections have on partisan appraisals of democracy? We consider the case of the November 2020 US election, a highly polarized partisan contest but also an objectively free and fair election by credible accounting. We conducted a panel study embedded within two nationally representative surveys before and after the election. Results indicate a familiar but underexamined partisan gap, in which satisfaction with democracy decreases among Republicans and increases among Democrats relative to nonpartisans. We find that the gap is fully mediated by partisan shifts in satisfaction with elections and the news media that cover them. Our results underscore how eroding institutional confidence can undermine democratic legitimacy in hitherto consolidated democracies. To overcome partisan divisions following contentious elections, we highlight the need to bolster confidence in democratic institutions to reduce partisan fears and uncertainties—both rational and irrational—that electoral losses may trigger.
有争议的选举对党派对民主的评价有什么影响?我们以2020年11月的美国大选为例,这是一场高度两极化的党派之争,但也是一场客观自由、公正的选举。我们在选举前后进行了两次具有全国代表性的调查,并进行了小组研究。结果显示了一个熟悉但未被充分研究的党派差距,其中共和党人对民主的满意度下降,而民主党人对民主的满意度相对于无党派人士有所上升。我们发现,党派对选举和报道选举的新闻媒体满意度的变化完全弥补了这一差距。我们的研究结果强调,在迄今为止稳固的民主国家,机构信心的侵蚀会如何破坏民主的合法性。为了克服有争议的选举后的党派分歧,我们强调有必要增强对民主制度的信心,以减少选举失败可能引发的党派恐惧和不确定性——无论是理性的还是非理性的。
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引用次数: 0
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Ps-Political Science & Politics
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