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Out‐of‐sample predictability of firm‐specific stock price crashes: A machine learning approach 特定公司股价暴跌的样本外可预测性:机器学习方法
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12831
Devrimi Kaya, Doron Reichmann, Milan Reichmann
We use machine learning methods to predict firm‐specific stock price crashes and evaluate the out‐of‐sample prediction performance of various methods, compared to traditional regression approaches. Using financial and textual data from 10‐K filings, our results show that a logistic regression with financial data inputs performs reasonably well and sometimes outperforms newer classifiers such as random forests and neural networks. However, we find that a stochastic gradient boosting model systematically outperforms the logistic regression, and forecasts using suitable combinations of financial and textual data inputs yield significantly higher prediction performance. Overall, the evidence suggests that machine learning methods can help predict stock price crashes.
我们使用机器学习方法预测特定公司的股价暴跌,并评估各种方法与传统回归方法相比的样本外预测性能。我们使用 10-K 申报文件中的财务和文本数据,结果表明,使用财务数据输入的逻辑回归表现相当不错,有时甚至优于随机森林和神经网络等较新的分类器。不过,我们发现随机梯度提升模型的表现明显优于逻辑回归,而且使用财务数据和文本数据输入的适当组合进行预测,其预测性能也明显高于逻辑回归。总体而言,证据表明机器学习方法有助于预测股价暴跌。
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引用次数: 0
Top management team incentive dispersion and management earnings forecasts 高层管理团队激励分散与管理层盈利预测
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12833
Rachana Kalelkar, Yuan Shi, Hongkang Xu
We investigate whether heterogeneity in pay‐performance sensitivity (PPS) among top management team (TMT) members affects management earnings forecasts (MEFs). Extant studies find that dispersion of PPS among TMT members results in a lack of coordination among TMT members and has a significant consequence for the firm. Since the issuance of forecasts is jointly determined by TMT managers, we argue that heterogeneity in PPS among TMT members will affect forecast issuance. We find that firms are less likely to issue MEFs when PPS dispersion among TMT members is high. Moreover, the forecasts of these firms are less optimistic. Finally, our analyses reveal that the effect of dispersion of PPS among TMT members on MEFs is more pronounced when the difference in PPS between the chief executive officer and other executives is high or team tenure is short. Overall, our results suggest that heterogeneity in PPS among TMT members affects a firm's voluntary disclosures.
我们研究了高层管理团队(TMT)成员之间薪酬绩效敏感性(PPS)的异质性是否会影响管理层盈利预测(MEF)。现有研究发现,高层管理团队成员之间薪酬绩效敏感度的差异会导致高层管理团队成员之间缺乏协调,并对公司产生重大影响。由于预测的发布是由 TMT 管理者共同决定的,我们认为 TMT 成员之间 PPS 的异质性会影响预测的发布。我们发现,当 TMT 成员之间的 PPS 高度分散时,公司不太可能发布 MEF。此外,这些公司的预测也不那么乐观。最后,我们的分析表明,当首席执行官与其他高管之间的 PPS 差异较大或团队任期较短时,TMT 成员之间的 PPS 分散对 MEF 的影响更为明显。总之,我们的结果表明,TMT 成员间 PPS 的异质性会影响公司的自愿披露。
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引用次数: 0
Verifiable content in social media stock‐analysis articles: The long and short of it 社交媒体股票分析文章中的可验证内容:长与短
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12834
Lei Chen, Shuping Chen, Tian Gao, Wuyang Zhao
Investment‐related social media platforms are transforming the traditional intermediary landscape by rapidly disseminating user‐empowered opinions and recommendations, raising concerns about the credibility of information on such platforms. We examine the differential content verifiability of SeekingAlpha.com articles with sell recommendations (short articles) versus articles with buy recommendations (long articles). We find that short articles contain greater verifiable content than long articles, and verifiable content in short articles generates greater market reactions and better mitigates return reversals than that in long articles. This asymmetry contrasts prior research evidence that greater content verifiability accompanies traditional sell‐side analyst reports with buy recommendations. Our results are robust to various confounding factors, including author effects, among others. Our results become more pronounced in the presence of greater retail ownership. Taken together, our results provide new evidence on investors’ assessment of the credibility of information on social media platforms.
与投资相关的社交媒体平台正在改变传统中介机构的格局,迅速传播由用户授权的意见和建议,从而引发了人们对此类平台上信息可信度的担忧。我们研究了 SeekingAlpha.com 上推荐卖出的文章(短文)与推荐买入的文章(长文)在内容可验证性上的差异。我们发现,与长篇文章相比,短篇文章包含的可验证内容更多,而且短篇文章中的可验证内容比长篇文章中的可验证内容能产生更大的市场反应,并能更好地缓解回报逆转。这种不对称性与之前的研究证据形成了鲜明对比,之前的研究证据表明,在传统的卖方分析师报告中,买入建议的内容可验证性更高。我们的结果对各种混杂因素(包括作者效应等)都是稳健的。在散户持股比例较高的情况下,我们的结果会更加明显。总之,我们的结果为投资者评估社交媒体平台上信息的可信度提供了新的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Coarse performance evaluation for envious agents 妒忌剂的粗略性能评估
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12832
Eiji Ohashi
Information economics predicts that a principal will prefer a finer performance evaluation system to a coarser one. Nevertheless, coarse performance evaluation is often used in practice. To explain this seeming contradiction, I construct a model of a principal and envious agents. I show that a coarse evaluation system can do as well as a finer one if agents are sufficiently envious, that is, if they incur large utility loss when they are paid less than their peers. This result supports the use of coarse performance evaluation that aggregates signals of good performance, in the form of fixed wages or inflated ratings.
根据信息经济学的预测,校长更倾向于较细的绩效评估系统,而不是较粗的绩效评估系统。然而,在实践中却经常使用粗略的绩效评估。为了解释这一看似矛盾的现象,我构建了一个委托人和妒忌代理人的模型。我的研究表明,如果代理人有足够的妒忌心,也就是说,当他们的报酬低于同行时,他们就会遭受巨大的效用损失,那么粗略的评价体系就能和精细的评价体系一样好。这一结果支持使用粗略的绩效评估,即以固定工资或夸大评级的形式汇总良好绩效的信号。
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引用次数: 0
Does the textual quality of prospectuses affect gross spread in seasoned equity offerings? 招股说明书的文字质量是否会影响成熟股票发行的总价差?
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12824
Nandu J. Nagarajan, Sridhar Panchapakesan Nerur, Bin Srinidhi, Xiaoxiao Yu
We examine how expositional quality (measured by discretionary readability and lexical focus—new measures) in the textual content of prospectuses preceding seasoned equity offerings affects the gross spread after controlling for the quality of numerical information. We measure the gross spread as the difference between the offer price and the underwriter's purchase price per share, expressed as a percentage of the offer price. We find that the gross spread is higher in firms whose prospectuses have lower discretionary readability, while the discretionary readability of the preceding 10‐K has little effect. Further, when the prospectus readability is lower than that of the preceding 10‐K, the gross spread increases more than it decreases when readability is higher by the same amount. Low focus (lexical focus) in the Use of Proceeds section of the prospectus results in a higher gross spread. However, low prospectus focus is associated with higher gross spread only in the bad‐news subsample. Overall, our results show that the gross spread is incrementally associated with textual obfuscation over the numerical quality of earnings. Moreover, our findings indicate that investors get distinctly different and useful information from different measures of textual quality in different parts of the text. Finally, we present novel insights showing that investors respond differently to different measures of textual quality, for example, readability and lexical focus, depending on whether there is good or bad news.
我们研究了在控制数字信息的质量后,成熟股票发行前招股说明书文本内容的阐述质量(以自由可读性和词汇重点--新的衡量标准)如何影响总价差。我们用发行价与承销商每股购买价之间的差额(以发行价的百分比表示)来衡量总价差。我们发现,招股说明书可读性较低的公司的总价差较高,而前 10-K 的可读性影响不大。此外,当招股说明书的可读性低于上一份 10-K 报告的可读性时,总价差的增加幅度大于可读性较高时的减少幅度。招股说明书中 "募集资金用途 "部分的低关注度(词汇关注度)会导致较高的总价差。然而,只有在坏消息子样本中,招股说明书的低关注度才与较高的毛利差相关。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,与盈利的数字质量相比,毛利差与文字混淆的关联度更高。此外,我们的研究结果表明,投资者可以从文本不同部分的不同文本质量衡量标准中获得截然不同的有用信息。最后,我们提出了新颖的见解,表明投资者对不同的文本质量衡量标准(如可读性和词汇重点)的反应是不同的,这取决于是好消息还是坏消息。
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引用次数: 0
Do analysts’ gross margin forecasts influence manager's decisions to recognize inventory losses? 分析师的毛利率预测是否会影响经理确认库存损失的决策?
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12828
Nusrat Jahan, Padmakumar Sivadasan
Accounting standards require firms to write down their inventory when its market value (or net realizable value) drops below cost. Recognizing inventory write‐downs decreases gross margins and increases scrutiny of managers’ inventory management practices. Further, it is difficult for market participants to assess inventory balances. Therefore, managers often delay recognizing inventory losses. Compared with other analysts, analysts who issue disaggregated gross margin (GM) forecasts evaluate a firm's inventories more closely, which should motivate managers to recognize expected inventory losses. Consistent with this prediction, managers’ likelihood of recognizing an expected inventory loss increases as more analysts provide GM forecasts. However, the number of analysts issuing standalone earnings per share (EPS) or EPS and other disaggregated forecasts is not associated with inventory loss recognition. We address endogeneity concerns by documenting that firms are less likely to recognize an expected inventory loss after exogenous factors cause analysts to stop issuing GM forecasts for the firm. We contribute significantly to the literature by showing that analysts' GM forecasts are closely associated with managers’ timely inventory loss recognition. This insight bridges the gap between anecdotal evidence, which suggests analysts assess inventory carefully, and scholarly research indicating that analysts' forecasts may not fully capture the effects of inventory changes. Our findings suggest that managers act as if inventory management practices are more strictly monitored only when analysts issue GM forecasts.
会计准则要求企业在存货的市场价值(或可变现净值)低于成本时进行减记。确认库存减记会降低毛利率,并增加对管理者库存管理做法的审查。此外,市场参与者很难评估存货余额。因此,管理者通常会推迟确认存货损失。与其他分析师相比,发布分类毛利率(GM)预测的分析师会更仔细地评估公司的存货,这应该会促使管理者确认预期的存货损失。与这一预测相一致的是,随着越来越多的分析师提供 GM 预测,管理者确认预期存货损失的可能性也会增加。然而,发布独立每股收益(EPS)或每股收益及其他分类预测的分析师数量与存货损失确认无关。我们通过证明在外生性因素导致分析师停止发布公司的通用预测后,公司不太可能确认预期存货损失,从而解决了内生性问题。通过证明分析师的 GM 预测与管理者及时确认存货损失密切相关,我们为相关文献做出了重要贡献。这一见解弥补了传闻证据与学术研究之间的差距,传闻证据表明分析师会仔细评估库存,而学术研究则表明分析师的预测可能无法完全捕捉到库存变化的影响。我们的研究结果表明,只有当分析师发布全球机制预测时,经理们才会认为库存管理实践受到了更严格的监控。
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引用次数: 0
The real effects of M&As on targets’ peers 并购对目标公司同行的实际影响
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12825
Linda Du, Wen Li, Jianfei Sun
This paper studies the real effects of targets’ acquisitions on their peers through investigating the real earnings management (REM) behavior of the targets’ rivals following the mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Using a difference‐in‐differences design, we find that, on average, rivals of acquisition targets would engage in more REM after M&A announcements. We further find that within rivals of the target, the post‐announcement increase in REM is more pronounced when: (1) the rival is relatively less similar to the target; (2) the rival serves as the targets’ rival more than once within a year; (3) the target earns a higher bidding premium or positive abnormal returns; or (4) the rival has the higher institutional ownership or more analyst following. Additional analyses reveal that rivals engaging in more REM would have a higher likelihood of being acquired in subsequent years and would be sold at higher premiums. We also find that targets’ rivals boost their short‐term performance by engaging in REM activities at the cost of their long‐term performance. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. Overall, our evidence suggests that an acquisition activity could have a real effect on the target's industry, i.e., the effect on the accounting choices of the whole industry.
本文通过调查并购(M&As)后目标公司竞争对手的实际收益管理(REM)行为,研究目标公司并购对同行的实际影响。利用差异设计,我们发现,平均而言,并购目标的竞争对手会在并购公告发布后进行更多的实际收益管理。我们进一步发现,在目标公司的竞争对手内部,当出现以下情况时,并购公告发布后 REM 的增加会更加明显:(1) 竞争对手与目标公司的相似度相对较低;(2) 竞争对手在一年内不止一次成为目标公司的竞争对手;(3) 目标公司获得了更高的竞购溢价或正的异常回报;或 (4) 竞争对手拥有更高的机构所有权或更多的分析师关注。其他分析表明,参与更多 REM 的竞争对手在随后几年被收购的可能性更高,而且会以更高的溢价出售。我们还发现,目标公司的竞争对手通过参与 REM 活动提高了短期业绩,但却牺牲了长期业绩。我们的结果经得起各种稳健性检验。总体而言,我们的证据表明,收购活动会对目标公司所在行业产生实际影响,即对整个行业的会计选择产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Product market competition and disclosure content differentiation: A topic modeling analysis 产品市场竞争与披露内容差异:主题建模分析
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12827
Yongqiang Chu, Bo Huang, Haitong Li, Junqi Liu
We examine how product market competition affects firms’ disclosure content. Theory suggests that competition leads firms to strategically disclose to avoid proprietary costs; however, the empirical evidence has been mixed. We investigate whether firms manage disclosure content to protect proprietary information, a disclosure strategy under‐researched in the literature. We use a topic‐modeling technique to extract and compare thematic topics that industry peers disclose in management discussion and analysis (MD&A) in 10‐K filings. Exploiting large reductions in US import tariff rates as an exogenous shock to product market competition, we find that firms differentiate disclosure topics in response. This effect is more pronounced when disclosures incur higher proprietary costs, as theoretically predicted, and stronger for firms with greater product similarity to industry peers and those with longer MD&A disclosure texts.
我们研究了产品市场竞争如何影响企业的信息披露内容。理论认为,竞争会导致企业战略性地披露信息以避免专有成本;然而,经验证据却喜忧参半。我们研究了企业是否通过管理披露内容来保护专有信息,文献中对这一披露策略的研究不足。我们使用主题建模技术,提取并比较行业同类公司在 10-K 文件的管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)中披露的主题。利用美国大幅降低进口关税率作为产品市场竞争的外生冲击,我们发现企业会对披露主题做出不同反应。正如理论上所预测的那样,当信息披露产生更高的专有成本时,这种效应会更加明显,而对于那些产品与行业同行相似度更高的企业以及那些 MD&A 披露文本更长的企业来说,这种效应会更强。
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引用次数: 0
Does options trading affect audit pricing? 期权交易会影响审计定价吗?
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12821
Muhammad Jahangir Ali, Balasingham Balachandran, Huu Nhan Duong, Premkanth Puwanenthiren, Michael Theobald
We examine the impact of options trading on audit pricing for a sample of US firms over the period from 2004 to 2021. We find that options trading is significantly and negatively related to audit fees, indicating that firms characterized by higher options trading incur lower audit fees. Auditors spend a lower number of days auditing firms with higher options trading and firms with higher options trading experience lower probabilities of lawsuits, and misstatements, and lower likelihood of material weaknesses and auditor opinion on internal controls. The impact of options trading on audit fees is stronger when the auditor is located further away from the audited firm, for firms with non‐specialized auditors, higher information asymmetry problems, poorer earnings and lower governance quality. Overall, our findings underscore the significance of options trading in improving a firm's information environment and reducing litigation risk, resulting in lower audit fees.
我们以 2004 年至 2021 年期间的美国公司为样本,研究了期权交易对审计定价的影响。我们发现,期权交易与审计费用显著负相关,表明期权交易较多的公司审计费用较低。审计师花在期权交易量高的公司的审计天数较少,期权交易量高的公司遭遇诉讼和错报的概率较低,出现重大缺陷和审计师对内部控制发表意见的可能性较低。当审计师距离被审计公司较远、审计师非专业、信息不对称问题较严重、盈利较差和治理质量较低时,期权交易对审计费用的影响更大。总体而言,我们的研究结果强调了期权交易在改善公司信息环境和降低诉讼风险方面的重要作用,从而降低了审计费用。
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引用次数: 0
Do audit firms discount initial full‐year audit engagements with multiple potential successor auditors? 对于有多个潜在继任审计师的初次全年审计业务,审计公司是否会打折扣?
IF 2.9 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12823
Thomas C. Omer, Ming (Mike) Yuan
Auditing theory predicts fee discounting when multiple potential successor auditors bid for the client. However, the empirical evidence on this issue varies as more recent research attributes prior evidence of fee discounting to measurement errors related to audit fees’ partial‐year reporting. We argue that the mixed results of previous literature are partially attributable to a failure to identify competitive auditor changes. We use U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosures of audit firm changes to identify cases with multiple potential successor auditors, which suggests more competition for the client. We compare each disclosing firm's audit fees between the first year following the auditor change year and all other years of the same disclosing firm. We find that successor audit firms discount audit fees in the first full year following the auditor change, compared to all other years, within the same disclosing firm. The fee discounting continues until at least the second full year of the engagement. Results also suggest Big N successor firms discount fees to win new engagements from smaller successor audit firms. Audit fee discounting occurs when companies dismiss their audit firm rather than when audit firms resign. Finally, we find no evidence of impaired audit quality for the 2 years following the auditor change.
审计理论预测,当多个潜在继任审计师竞聘客户时,费用会打折扣。然而,有关这一问题的经验证据却不尽相同,最近的研究将先前的费用折扣证据归因于与审计费用的部分年度报告相关的计量误差。我们认为,以往文献结果不一的部分原因在于未能识别竞争性审计师变更。我们利用美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的审计师事务所变更信息来识别有多个潜在继任审计师的案例,这表明对客户的竞争更加激烈。我们比较了每家披露公司在审计师变更年后第一年和同一披露公司所有其他年份的审计费用。我们发现,继任审计公司在审计师变更后的第一年,与同一披露公司的所有其他年份相比,审计费用会打折扣。费用折扣至少会持续到聘用的第二年。结果还表明,"N 大 "继任公司会打折扣收费,以从规模较小的继任审计公司那里赢得新的业务。审计费打折发生在公司解聘其审计事务所时,而不是审计事务所辞职时。最后,我们没有发现审计师变更后两年内审计质量受损的证据。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Business Finance & Accounting
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