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Causal Inference with Networked Treatment Diffusion 网络化治疗扩散的因果推理
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2018-07-25 DOI: 10.1177/0081175018785216
Weihua An
Treatment interference (i.e., one unit’s potential outcomes depend on other units’ treatment) is prevalent in social settings. Ignoring treatment interference can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects and incorrect statistical inferences. Some recent studies have started to incorporate treatment interference into causal inference. But treatment interference is often assumed to follow a simple structure (e.g., treatment interference exists only within groups) or measured in a simplistic way (e.g., only based on the number of treated friends). In this paper, I highlight the importance of collecting data on actual treatment diffusion in order to more accurately measure treatment interference. Furthermore, I show that with accurate measures of treatment interference, we can identify and estimate a series of causal effects that are previously unavailable, including the direct treatment effect, treatment interference effect, and treatment effect on interference. I illustrate the methods through a case study of a social network–based smoking prevention intervention.
治疗干扰(即一个单位的潜在结果取决于其他单位的治疗)在社会环境中很普遍。忽视治疗干扰可能导致对治疗效果的有偏差估计和不正确的统计推断。最近的一些研究已经开始将治疗干扰纳入因果推理。但治疗干扰通常被认为遵循一个简单的结构(例如,治疗干扰只存在于群体内)或以一种简单的方式衡量(例如,仅基于接受治疗的朋友的数量)。在本文中,我强调了收集实际治疗扩散数据的重要性,以便更准确地测量治疗干扰。此外,我表明,通过对治疗干扰的准确测量,我们可以识别和估计一系列以前无法获得的因果效应,包括直接治疗效应、治疗干扰效应和治疗对干扰的影响。我通过一个基于社会网络的吸烟预防干预的案例研究来说明这些方法。
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引用次数: 6
The Problem of Underdetermination in Model Selection 模型选择中的欠确定问题
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2018-07-13 DOI: 10.1177/0081175018786762
Michael Schultz
Conventional model selection evaluates models on their ability to represent data accurately, ignoring their dependence on theoretical and methodological assumptions. Drawing on the concept of underdetermination from the philosophy of science, the author argues that uncritical use of methodological assumptions can pose a problem for effective inference. By ignoring the plausibility of assumptions, existing techniques select models that are poor representations of theory and are thus suboptimal for inference. To address this problem, the author proposes a new paradigm for inference-oriented model selection that evaluates models on the basis of a trade-off between model fit and model plausibility. By comparing the fits of sequentially nested models, it is possible to derive an empirical lower bound for the subjective plausibility of assumptions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, the method is applied to models of the relationship between cultural tastes and network composition.
传统的模型选择根据模型准确表示数据的能力来评估模型,忽略了它们对理论和方法假设的依赖性。根据科学哲学中的不确定性概念,作者认为,不加批判地使用方法论假设可能会给有效推理带来问题。通过忽略假设的合理性,现有技术选择的模型对理论的表述很差,因此对推理来说是次优的。为了解决这个问题,作者提出了一种面向推理的模型选择新范式,该范式基于模型拟合和模型合理性之间的权衡来评估模型。通过比较顺序嵌套模型的拟合,可以得出假设主观合理性的经验下界。为了证明这种方法的有效性,将该方法应用于文化品味和网络构成之间关系的模型中。
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引用次数: 1
We Ran 9 Billion Regressions: Eliminating False Positives through Computational Model Robustness 我们运行了90亿次回归:通过计算模型稳健性消除误报
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2018-07-13 DOI: 10.1177/0081175018777988
John Muñoz, Cristobal Young
False positive findings are a growing problem in many research literatures. We argue that excessive false positives often stem from model uncertainty. There are many plausible ways of specifying a regression model, but researchers typically report only a few preferred estimates. This raises the concern that such research reveals only a small fraction of the possible results and may easily lead to nonrobust, false positive conclusions. It is often unclear how much the results are driven by model specification and how much the results would change if a different plausible model were used. Computational model robustness analysis addresses this challenge by estimating all possible models from a theoretically informed model space. We use large-scale random noise simulations to show (1) the problem of excess false positive errors under model uncertainty and (2) that computational robustness analysis can identify and eliminate false positives caused by model uncertainty. We also draw on a series of empirical applications to further illustrate issues of model uncertainty and estimate instability. Computational robustness analysis offers a method for relaxing modeling assumptions and improving the transparency of applied research.
假阳性发现在许多研究文献中是一个日益严重的问题。我们认为,过多的误报往往源于模型的不确定性。有很多合理的方法可以指定回归模型,但研究人员通常只报告一些首选的估计值。这引发了人们的担忧,即此类研究只揭示了可能结果的一小部分,可能很容易导致不可靠的假阳性结论。通常不清楚模型规范在多大程度上驱动了结果,以及如果使用不同的合理模型,结果会发生多大变化。计算模型稳健性分析通过从理论上知情的模型空间估计所有可能的模型来解决这一挑战。我们使用大规模随机噪声模拟来展示(1)模型不确定性下的超额误报误差问题,以及(2)计算鲁棒性分析可以识别和消除由模型不确定性引起的误报。我们还利用一系列经验应用来进一步说明模型的不确定性和估计的不稳定性问题。计算稳健性分析为放宽建模假设和提高应用研究的透明度提供了一种方法。
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引用次数: 37
Estimating Income Statistics from Grouped Data: Mean-constrained Integration over Brackets 从分组数据估计收入统计:括号上的均值约束整合
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2018-07-09 DOI: 10.1177/0081175018782579
P. Jargowsky, Christopher A. Wheeler
Researchers studying income inequality, economic segregation, and other subjects must often rely on grouped data—that is, data in which thousands or millions of observations have been reduced to counts of units by specified income brackets. The distribution of households within the brackets is unknown, and highest incomes are often included in an open-ended top bracket, such as “$200,000 and above.” Common approaches to this estimation problem include calculating midpoint estimators with an assumed Pareto distribution in the top bracket and fitting a flexible multiple-parameter distribution to the data. The authors describe a new method, mean-constrained integration over brackets (MCIB), that is far more accurate than those methods using only the bracket counts and the overall mean of the data. On the basis of an analysis of 297 metropolitan areas, MCIB produces estimates of the standard deviation, Gini coefficient, and Theil index that are correlated at 0.997, 0.998, and 0.991, respectively, with the parameters calculated from the underlying individual record data. Similar levels of accuracy are obtained for percentiles of the distribution and the shares of income by quintiles of the distribution. The technique can easily be extended to other distributional parameters and inequality statistics.
研究收入不平等、经济隔离和其他主题的研究人员必须经常依赖分组数据——也就是说,在这些数据中,成千上万或数百万的观察结果被简化为特定收入等级的单位数。括号内的家庭分布是未知的,最高收入通常包括在一个开放的顶部括号中,如“200000美元及以上”。解决这一估计问题的常见方法包括在顶部括号中使用假定的Pareto分布计算中点估计量,并将灵活的多参数分布拟合到数据中。作者描述了一种新的方法,即括号上的平均约束积分(MCIB),它比那些只使用括号计数和数据总平均值的方法准确得多。基于对297个大都市地区的分析,MCIB得出了标准差、基尼系数和泰尔指数的估计值,这些估计值分别与根据基本个人记录数据计算的参数相关,分别为0.997、0.998和0.991。对于分布的百分位数和按分布的五分位数划分的收入份额,可以获得类似的准确度。该技术可以很容易地扩展到其他分布参数和不等式统计。
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引用次数: 11
The Intergenerational Elasticity of What? The Case for Redefining the Workhorse Measure of Economic Mobility 什么的代际弹性?重新定义经济流动性衡量标准的案例
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/0081175019886613
Pablo A. Mitnik, D. Grusky
The intergenerational elasticity (IGE) has been assumed to refer to the expectation of children’s income when in fact it pertains to the geometric mean of children’s income. We show that mobility analyses based on the conventional IGE have been widely misinterpreted, are subject to selection bias, and cannot disentangle the different channels for transmitting economic status across generations. The solution to these problems—estimating the IGE of expected income or earnings—returns the field to what it has long meant to estimate. Under this approach, intergenerational persistence is found to be substantially higher, thus raising the possibility that the field’s stock results are misleading.
代际弹性(IGE)被认为是指对儿童收入的期望,而事实上它与儿童收入的几何平均数有关。我们表明,基于传统IGE的流动性分析被广泛误解,存在选择偏差,无法理清跨代传递经济地位的不同渠道。这些问题的解决方案——估计预期收入或收益的IGE——将该领域恢复到其长期以来的估计值。在这种方法下,代际持久性被发现要高得多,从而增加了该领域的总体结果具有误导性的可能性。
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引用次数: 20
Item Location, the Interviewer–Respondent Interaction, and Responses to Battery Questions in Telephone Surveys 项目位置、访谈者-受访者互动以及对电话调查中电池问题的回答
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2018-06-18 DOI: 10.1177/0081175018778299
Kristen Olson, Jolene D Smyth, Beth Cochran
Survey researchers often ask a series of attitudinal questions with a common question stem and response options, known as battery questions. Interviewers have substantial latitude in deciding how to administer these items, including whether to reread the common question stem on items after the first one or to probe respondents’ answers. Despite the ubiquity of use of these items, there is virtually no research on whether respondent and interviewer behaviors on battery questions differ over items in a battery or whether interview behaviors are associated with answers to these questions. This article uses a nationally representative telephone survey with audio-recorded interviews and randomized placement of items within four different batteries to examine interviewer and respondent behaviors and respondent answers in battery questions. Using cross-classified random-effects models, the authors find strong evidence that there is more interviewer–respondent interaction on items asked earlier in the battery. In addition, interviewer and respondent behaviors are associated with both substantive and nonsubstantive answers provided to battery items, especially if the interviewer decided to reread or probe with the response options. These results suggest that survey designers should follow recommendations to randomize battery items and consider the importance of standardization of question administration when designing battery questions.
调查研究人员经常提出一系列态度问题,这些问题有一个常见的问题干和回答选项,称为电池问题。面试官在决定如何管理这些项目时有很大的自由度,包括是重读第一个项目后的常见问题词干,还是探究受访者的答案。尽管这些项目的使用无处不在,但实际上没有研究受访者和面试官在电池问题上的行为是否与电池中的项目不同,或者面试行为是否与这些问题的答案有关。这篇文章使用了一项具有全国代表性的电话调查,包括录音采访和在四个不同的电池内随机放置项目,以检查采访者和受访者的行为以及受访者在电池问题中的回答。通过使用交叉分类的随机效应模型,作者发现了强有力的证据,证明在小组早期提出的问题上,访谈者和受访者之间有更多的互动。此外,面试官和受访者的行为与对电池项目提供的实质性和非实质性回答有关,尤其是当面试官决定重读或探究回答选项时。这些结果表明,调查设计者在设计电池问题时,应遵循随机化电池项目的建议,并考虑问题管理标准化的重要性。
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引用次数: 6
Estimating the Relationship between Time-varying Covariates and Trajectories: The Sequence Analysis Multistate Model Procedure 估计时变协变量和轨迹之间的关系:序列分析多状态模型过程
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2018-01-08 DOI: 10.1177/0081175017747122
M. Studer, E. Struffolino, A. Fasang
The relationship between processes and time-varying covariates is of central theoretical interest in addressing many social science research questions. On the one hand, event history analysis (EHA) has been the chosen method to study these kinds of relationships when the outcomes can be meaningfully specified as simple instantaneous events or transitions. On the other hand, sequence analysis (SA) has made increasing inroads into the social sciences to analyze trajectories as holistic “process outcomes.” We propose an original combination of these two approaches called the sequence analysis multistate model (SAMM) procedure. The SAMM procedure allows the study of the relationship between time-varying covariates and trajectories of categorical states specified as process outcomes that unfold over time. The SAMM is a stepwise procedure: (1) SA-related methods are used to identify ideal-typical patterns of changes within trajectories obtained by considering the sequence of states over a predefined time span; (2) multistate event history models are estimated to study the probability of transitioning from a specific state to such ideal-typical patterns. The added value of the SAMM procedure is illustrated through an example from life-course sociology on how (1) time-varying family status is associated with women’s employment trajectories in East and West Germany and (2) how German reunification affected these trajectories in the two subsocieties.
过程和时变协变量之间的关系是解决许多社会科学研究问题的核心理论兴趣。一方面,当结果可以被有意义地指定为简单的瞬时事件或过渡时,事件历史分析(EHA)一直是研究这类关系的首选方法。另一方面,序列分析(SA)已经越来越多地进入社会科学,将轨迹作为整体的“过程结果”进行分析。我们提出了这两种方法的原始组合,称为序列分析多状态模型(SAMM)过程。SAMM程序允许研究时变协变量与随时间展开的过程结果指定的分类状态轨迹之间的关系。SAMM是一个循序渐进的过程:(1)使用与sa相关的方法来识别通过考虑预定义时间范围内的状态序列而获得的轨迹内的理想典型变化模式;(2)估计多状态事件历史模型,研究从特定状态过渡到理想-典型模式的概率。SAMM程序的附加价值通过一个来自生命历程社会学的例子来说明:(1)随时间变化的家庭地位如何与东德和西德妇女的就业轨迹相关联,以及(2)德国统一如何影响两个亚社会的这些轨迹。
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引用次数: 27
Estimating Moderated Causal Effects with Time-varying Treatments and Time-varying Moderators: Structural Nested Mean Models and Regression with Residuals. 用时变处理和时变调节因子估计有调节的因果效应:结构嵌套均值模型和残差回归。
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2017-08-01 Epub Date: 2017-04-27 DOI: 10.1177/0081175017701180
Geoffrey T Wodtke, Daniel Almirall

Individuals differ in how they respond to a particular treatment or exposure, and social scientists are often interested in understanding how treatment effects are moderated by observed characteristics of individuals. Effect moderation occurs when individual covariates dampen or amplify the effect of some exposure. This article focuses on estimating moderated causal effects in longitudinal settings where both the treatment and effect moderator vary over time. Effect moderation is typically examined using covariate by treatment interactions in regression analyses, but in the longitudinal setting, this approach may be problematic because time-varying moderators of future treatment may be affected by prior treatment-for example, moderators may also be mediators-and naively conditioning on an outcome of treatment in a conventional regression model can lead to bias. This article introduces to sociology moderated intermediate causal effects and the structural nested mean model for analyzing effect moderation in the longitudinal setting. It discusses problems with conventional regression and presents a new approach to estimation that avoids these problems (regression-with-residuals). The method is illustrated using longitudinal data from the PSID to examine whether the effects of time-varying exposures to poor neighborhoods on the risk of adolescent childbearing are moderated by time-varying family income.

个体对特定治疗或暴露的反应不同,社会科学家通常对了解治疗效果如何被观察到的个体特征所缓和感兴趣。当个体协变量抑制或放大某些暴露的影响时,就会发生效应调节。这篇文章的重点是估计在纵向设置的缓和因果效应,其中治疗和效果缓和随时间而变化。在回归分析中,效果调节通常是通过治疗相互作用使用协变量来检验的,但在纵向设置中,这种方法可能存在问题,因为未来治疗的时变调节因子可能受到先前治疗的影响-例如,调节因子也可能是中介-并且在传统回归模型中对治疗结果的天真条件反射可能导致偏倚。本文引入社会学调节的中间因果效应和结构嵌套均值模型来分析纵向背景下的效应调节。它讨论了传统回归的问题,并提出了一种新的估计方法,避免了这些问题(残差回归)。该方法使用来自PSID的纵向数据来说明,以检查时变暴露于贫困社区对青少年生育风险的影响是否被时变家庭收入所调节。
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引用次数: 15
Rejoinder: DyNAMs and the Grounds for Actor-oriented Network Event Models 复辩状:DyNAM和面向参与者的网络事件模型的基础
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/0081175017733457
Christoph Stadtfeld, James Hollway, Per Block
Dynamic Event Processes in Social Networks. Karlsruhe, Germany: KIT Scientific. Tranmer, M., C. S. Marcum, F. B. Morton, D. P. Croft, and S. R. de Kort. 2015. “Using the Relational Event Model (REM) to Investigate the Temporal Dynamics of Animal Social Networks.” Animal Behaviour 101:99–105. Vu, D., A. Lomi, D. Mascia, and F. Pallotti. 2017. “Relational Event Models for Longitudinal Network Data with an Application to Interhospital Patient Transfers.” Statistics in Medicine 36(14):2265–87. Vu, D., P. Pattison, and G. Robins. 2015. “Relational Event Models for Social Learning in MOOCs.” Social Networks 43:121–35.
社交网络中的动态事件过程。德国卡尔斯鲁厄:KIT Scientific。Tranmer,M.,C.S.Marcum,F.B.Morton,D.P.Croft和S.R.de Kort。2015,“使用关系事件模型(REM)调查动物社交网络的时间动态”,动物行为101:99-105。Vu,D.、A.Lomi、D.Mascia和F.Pallotti。2017年,“纵向网络数据的关系事件模型及其在医院间患者转移中的应用”,《医学统计学》36(14):2265–87。Vu,D.,P.Pattison和G.Robins。2015,“MOOC中社交学习的关系事件模型”,社交网络43:121-35。
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引用次数: 12
Prologue 序言
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/0081175017730075
Christoph Stadtfeld, James Hollway
This is the second volume of Sociological Methodology (SM) under my editorship. The work presented here spanned several years in that some of the papers were initially reviewed and/or accepted under previous editors. Most of the contributions included here exemplify the principle articulated by Jim Davis in the epigraph to the dedication, that the focus of substantive interests of sociologists may be capricious, but their methods are cumulative. This is apparent from the papers published here, which cover a broad range of methodological problems and are grounded in prior innovations and extend that work. We have organized the material in the present volume into seven major sections: (1) a symposium on dynamic network models, (2) more on social network models, (3) multiplicative models for continuous dependent variables, (4) causal inference, (5) decomposing segregation, (6) survey measurement, and (7) data visualization.
这是我主编的《社会学方法论》第二卷。这里介绍的工作跨越了几年,其中一些论文最初是在前任编辑的指导下进行审查和/或接受的。这里包含的大多数贡献都体现了吉姆·戴维斯在奉献题词中阐述的原则,即社会学家的实质性兴趣可能是反复无常的,但他们的方法是累积的。这一点从这里发表的论文中可以明显看出,这些论文涵盖了广泛的方法论问题,并以先前的创新为基础,扩展了这项工作。我们将本卷中的材料分为七个主要部分:(1)关于动态网络模型的研讨会,(2)关于社交网络模型的更多信息,(3)连续因变量的乘法模型,(4)因果推理,(5)分解分离,(6)调查测量,以及(7)数据可视化。
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引用次数: 0
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Sociological Methodology
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