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Network Autocorrelation Modeling: Bayesian Techniques for Estimating and Testing Multiple Network Autocorrelations 网络自相关建模:估计和测试多个网络自相关的贝叶斯技术
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.1177/0081175020913899
D. Dittrich, R. Leenders, J. Mulder
The network autocorrelation model has been the workhorse for estimating and testing the strength of theories of social influence in a network. In many network studies, different types of social influence are present simultaneously and can be modeled using various connectivity matrices. Often, researchers have expectations about the order of strength of these different influence mechanisms. However, currently available methods cannot be applied to test a specific order of social influence in a network. In this article, the authors first present flexible Bayesian techniques for estimating network autocorrelation models with multiple network autocorrelation parameters. Second, they develop new Bayes factors that allow researchers to test hypotheses with order constraints on the network autocorrelation parameters in a direct manner. Concomitantly, the authors give efficient algorithms for sampling from the posterior distributions and for computing the Bayes factors. Simulation results suggest that frequentist properties of Bayesian estimators on the basis of noninformative priors for the network autocorrelation parameters are overall slightly superior to those based on maximum likelihood estimation. Furthermore, when testing statistical hypotheses, the Bayes factors show consistent behavior with evidence for a true data-generating hypothesis increasing with the sample size. Finally, the authors illustrate their methods using a data set from economic growth theory.
网络自相关模型一直是估计和测试网络中社会影响理论强度的主要工具。在许多网络研究中,不同类型的社会影响同时存在,可以使用各种连接矩阵来建模。通常,研究人员对这些不同影响机制的强弱顺序有预期。然而,目前可用的方法不能用于测试网络中社会影响的特定顺序。在本文中,作者首先提出了灵活的贝叶斯技术,用于估计具有多个网络自相关参数的网络自相关模型。其次,他们开发了新的贝叶斯因子,允许研究人员以直接的方式测试网络自相关参数的顺序约束的假设。同时,作者给出了从后验分布中抽样和计算贝叶斯因子的有效算法。仿真结果表明,基于非信息先验的网络自相关参数贝叶斯估计的频性总体上略优于基于极大似然估计的网络自相关参数贝叶斯估计。此外,在检验统计假设时,贝叶斯因子表现出与真实数据生成假设的证据一致的行为,随着样本量的增加。最后,作者用经济增长理论中的一组数据说明了他们的方法。
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引用次数: 6
Explanatory Item Response Models for Dyadic Data from Multiple Groups 多组二元数据的解释性项目反应模型
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-05-17 DOI: 10.1177/0081175020967392
James P. Murphy
Like other quantitative social scientists, network researchers benefit from pooling information from multiple observed variables to infer underlying (latent) attributes or social processes. Appropriate network data for this task is increasingly available. The inherent dependencies in relational data, however, pose unique challenges. This is especially true for the ascendant tasks of cross-network comparisons and multilevel network analysis. The author draws on item response theory and multilevel (mixed effects) modeling to propose a methodological approach that accounts for these dependencies and allows the analyst to model variation of latent dyadic traits across relations, actors, and groups precisely and parsimoniously. Examples demonstrate the approach’s utility for three important research areas: tie strength in adolescent friendships, group differences in how discussing personal problems relates to tie strength, and the analysis of multiple relations.
与其他定量社会科学家一样,网络研究人员受益于从多个观察变量中收集信息,以推断潜在的属性或社会过程。用于此任务的适当网络数据越来越多。然而,关系数据中固有的依赖关系带来了独特的挑战。这对于跨网络比较和多层次网络分析的优势任务尤其如此。作者利用项目反应理论和多层(混合效应)模型提出了一种方法方法,该方法可以解释这些依赖关系,并允许分析人员精确而简洁地模拟跨关系,参与者和群体的潜在二元特征的变化。例子证明了该方法在三个重要研究领域的效用:青少年友谊中的纽带强度,如何讨论与纽带强度相关的个人问题的群体差异,以及多重关系的分析。
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引用次数: 1
Small-Area Analyses Using Public American Community Survey Data: A Tree-Based Spatial Microsimulation Technique 使用美国公共社区调查数据的小区域分析:基于树的空间微模拟技术
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-04-13 DOI: 10.1177/00811750211057572
Nicholas Graetz, Kevin Ummel, Daniel Aldana Cohen
Quantitative sociologists and social policymakers are increasingly interested in local context. Some city-specific studies have developed new primary data collection efforts to analyze inequality at the neighborhood level, but methods from spatial microsimulation have yet to be broadly used in sociology to take better advantage of existing public data sets. The American Community Survey (ACS) is the largest household survey in the United States and indispensable for detailed analysis of specific places and populations. The authors propose a technique, tree-based spatial microsimulation, to produce “small-area” (census-tract) estimates of any person- or household-level phenomenon that can be derived from ACS microdata variables. The approach is straightforward and computationally efficient, based only on publicly available data, and it provides more reliable estimates than do prevailing methods of microsimulation. The authors demonstrate the technique’s capabilities by producing tract-level estimates, stratified by race/ethnicity, of (1) the proportion of people in the census-tract population who have children and work in an essential occupation and (2) the proportion of people in the census-tract population living below the federal poverty threshold and in a household that spends greater than 50 percent of monthly income on rent or owner costs. These examples are relevant to understanding the sociospatial inequalities dramatized by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The authors discuss potential extensions of the technique to derive small-area estimates of variables observed in surveys other than the ACS.
数量社会学家和社会政策制定者对当地环境越来越感兴趣。一些针对城市的研究开发了新的初级数据收集工作,以分析社区层面的不平等,但空间微观模拟的方法尚未在社会学中广泛使用,以更好地利用现有的公共数据集。美国社区调查(ACS)是美国最大的家庭调查,对具体地点和人口的详细分析不可或缺。作者提出了一种基于树的空间微观模拟技术,可以从ACS微观数据变量中得出任何个人或家庭层面现象的“小区域”(人口普查区)估计值。该方法简单明了,计算效率高,仅基于公开的数据,而且它提供了比主流微观模拟方法更可靠的估计。作者通过产生按种族/民族分层的地区水平估计来证明该技术的能力,(1)人口普查区人口中有孩子并从事基本职业的人的比例,以及(2)人口普查区人群中生活在联邦贫困线以下且家庭每月收入的50%以上用于租金或业主成本的比例。这些例子与理解2019冠状病毒病大流行所加剧的社会空间不平等有关。作者讨论了该技术的潜在扩展,以导出在ACS以外的调查中观察到的变量的小面积估计。
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引用次数: 4
Retrospective Network Imputation from Life History Data: The Impact of Designs 从生活史数据中回溯网络推断:设计的影响
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-02-26 DOI: 10.1177/0081175020905624
Yue Yu, Emily Smith, C. Butts
Retrospective life history designs are among the few practical approaches for collecting longitudinal network information from large populations, particularly in the context of relationships like sexual partnerships that cannot be measured via digital traces or documentary evidence. While all such designs afford the ability to “peer into the past” vis-à-vis the point of data collection, little is known about the impact of the specific design parameters on the time horizon over which such information is useful. In this article, we investigate the effect of two different survey designs on retrospective network imputation: (1) intervalN, where subjects are asked to provide information on all partners within the past N time units; and (2) lastK, where subjects are asked to provide information about their K most recent partners. We simulate a “ground truth” sexual partnership network using a published model of Krivitsky (2012), and we then sample this data using the two retrospective designs under various choices of N and K . We examine the accumulation of missingness as a function of time prior to interview, and we investigate the impact of this missingness on model-based imputation of the state of the network at prior time points via conditional ERGM prediction. We quantitatively show that—even setting aside problems of alter identification and informant accuracy—choice of survey design and parameters used can drastically change the amount of missingness in the dataset. These differences in missingness have a large impact on the quality of retrospective parameter estimation and network imputation, including important effects on properties related to disease transmission.
回顾性生活史设计是从大量人群中收集纵向网络信息的少数实用方法之一,尤其是在性伴侣关系等无法通过数字痕迹或文件证据衡量的关系中。尽管所有这些设计都提供了相对于数据收集点“回顾过去”的能力,但人们对特定设计参数对这些信息有用的时间范围的影响知之甚少。在这篇文章中,我们调查了两种不同的调查设计对回顾性网络插补的影响:(1)intervalN,即受试者被要求提供过去N个时间单位内所有伴侣的信息;以及(2)lastK,其中受试者被要求提供关于他们的K个最近伴侣的信息。我们使用Krivitsky(2012)的一个已发表的模型模拟了一个“基本事实”性伴侣关系网络,然后我们在N和K的不同选择下使用两个回顾性设计对这些数据进行采样。我们检查了作为采访前时间函数的缺失累积,并通过条件ERGM预测研究了这种缺失对基于模型的网络先前时间点状态估算的影响。我们定量地表明,即使不考虑身份变更和信息准确性的问题,调查设计和使用的参数的选择也会极大地改变数据集中的缺失量。这些缺失的差异对回顾性参数估计和网络插补的质量有很大影响,包括对与疾病传播相关的特性的重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
Intergenerational Income Elasticities, Instrumental Variable Estimation, and Bracketing Strategies 代际收入弹性,工具变量估计和分类策略
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-07 DOI: 10.1177/0081175019887992
Pablo A. Mitnik
The fact that the intergenerational income elasticity (IGE)—the workhorse measure of economic mobility—is defined in terms of the geometric mean of children’s income generates serious methodological problems. This has led to a call to replace it with the IGE of the expectation, which requires developing the methodological knowledge necessary to estimate the latter with short-run measures of income. This article contributes to this aim. The author advances a “bracketing strategy” for the set estimation of the IGE of the expectation that is equivalent to that used to set estimate (rather than point estimate) the conventional IGE with estimates obtained with the ordinary least squares and instrumental variable (IV) estimators. The proposed bracketing strategy couples estimates generated with the Poisson pseudo–maximum likelihood estimator and a generalized method of moments IV estimator of the Poisson or exponential regression model. The author develops a generalized error-in-variables model for the IV estimation of the IGE of the expectation and compares it with the corresponding model underlying the IV estimation of the conventional IGE. By considering both bracketing strategies from the perspective of the partial-identification approach to inference, the author specifies how to construct confidence intervals for the IGEs, in particular when the upper bound is estimated more than once with different sets of instruments. Finally, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the author shows that the bracketing strategies work as expected and assesses the information they generate and how this information varies across instruments and short-run measures of parental income. Three computer programs made available as companions to the article make the set estimation of IGEs, and statistical inference, very simple endeavors.
代际收入弹性(IGE)——衡量经济流动性的主要指标——是根据儿童收入的几何平均值来定义的,这一事实产生了严重的方法论问题。这导致有人呼吁用预期的IGE来代替它,这需要发展必要的方法知识,以便用短期收入措施来估计后者。本文有助于实现这一目标。作者提出了一种“包套策略”,用于期望IGE的集合估计,该策略相当于使用普通最小二乘和工具变量(IV)估计器获得估计的常规IGE的集合估计(而不是点估计)。所提出的包套策略将泊松伪极大似然估计与泊松或指数回归模型的广义矩IV估计方法相结合。作者建立了一个广义的变量误差模型,用于期望的IGE的IV估计,并将其与传统IGE的IV估计相对应的模型进行了比较。通过从部分识别推理方法的角度考虑这两种括号策略,作者详细说明了如何构建IGEs的置信区间,特别是当上界使用不同的工具集多次估计时。最后,作者使用收入动态小组研究的数据表明,分类策略如预期的那样起作用,并评估了它们产生的信息,以及这些信息在不同工具和父母收入的短期衡量标准之间的差异。本文附带的三个计算机程序使IGEs的集合估计和统计推断成为非常简单的工作。
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引用次数: 10
Testing Self-Report Time-Use Diaries against Objective Instruments in Real Time 针对客观仪器实时测试自我报告时间使用日记
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-30 DOI: 10.1177/0081175019884591
J. Gershuny, Teresa A. Harms, A. Doherty, Emma Thomas, K. Milton, P. Kelly, C. Foster
This study provides a new test of time-use diary methodology, comparing diaries with a pair of objective criterion measures: wearable cameras and accelerometers. A volunteer sample of respondents (n = 148) completed conventional self-report paper time-use diaries using the standard UK Harmonised European Time Use Study (HETUS) instrument. On the diary day, respondents wore a camera that continuously recorded images of their activities during waking hours (approximately 1,500–2,000 images/day) and also an accelerometer that tracked their physical activity continuously throughout the 24-hour period covered by the diary. Of the initial 148 participants recruited, 131 returned usable diary and camera records, of whom 124 also provided a usable whole-day accelerometer record. The comparison of the diary data with the camera and accelerometer records strongly supports the use of diary methodology at both the aggregate (sample) and individual levels. It provides evidence that time-use data could be used to complement physical activity questionnaires for providing population-level estimates of physical activity. It also implies new opportunities for investigating techniques for calibrating metabolic equivalent of task (MET) attributions to daily activities using large-scale, population-representative time-use diary studies.
这项研究提供了一种新的时间使用日记方法的测试,将日记与两种客观标准措施:可穿戴相机和加速度计进行比较。志愿者样本(n = 148)使用标准的英国统一欧洲时间使用研究(HETUS)工具完成传统的自我报告纸质时间使用日记。在日记日,受访者佩戴了一个相机,连续记录他们醒着的时候的活动图像(大约每天1500 - 2000张图像),还有一个加速度计,在日记所涵盖的24小时内连续跟踪他们的身体活动。在最初招募的148名参与者中,131人提供了可用的日记和相机记录,其中124人还提供了可用的全天加速度计记录。日记数据与相机和加速度计记录的比较有力地支持了日记方法在总体(样本)和个人水平上的使用。它提供的证据表明,时间使用数据可以用来补充体力活动问卷,以提供人口水平的体力活动估计。这也意味着利用大规模的、具有人口代表性的时间使用日记研究来研究校准日常活动代谢当量(MET)归因的技术的新机会。
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引用次数: 36
The Challenges of “More Data” for Protest Event Analysis “更多数据”对抗议事件分析的挑战
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/0081175019866425
Han Zhang, Jennifer Pan
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引用次数: 3
Prologue 开场
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/0081175019869320
Ekkehard Kopp
Ekkehard Kopp adopts a chronological framework to demonstrate that changes in our understanding of numbers have o� en relied on the breaking of long-held conven� ons, making way for new inven� ons that provide greater clarity and widen mathema� cal horizons. Viewed from this historical perspec� ve, mathema� cal abstrac� on emerges as neither mysterious nor immutable, but as a con� ngent, developing human ac� vity.
Ekkehard-Kopp采用了一个时间框架来证明我们对数字的理解发生了变化� en依靠打破长期以来的惯例� ons,为新inven让路� 提供更清晰和拓宽mathema的ons� cal层位。从这个历史角度看� ve,mathema� 抽象的� on既不是神秘的,也不是一成不变的,而是一个骗局� ngent,发展人类交流� vity。
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引用次数: 1
A Quest for Transparent and Reproducible Text-Mining Methodologies in Computational Social Science 计算社会科学中对透明和可复制文本挖掘方法的探索
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/0081175019867855
Jan Goldenstein, Philipp Poschmann
We thank the editorial board for the opportunity to discuss our methodological contribution in a symposium dialogue as well as the two commentators for their inspiring and challenging comments. We are especially delighted that the commentators agree on the relevance of analyzing the dynamics of manifest and latent meanings in big data using different textmining tools in general and for map analysis in particular. According to our reading, the commentators focused on quality criteria, namely, two different but highly relevant aspects of transparency in research processes. Laura K. Nelson (this volume, pp. 139–143) focused on transparency in the context of research foci and analytical steps in a text-analysis project to ensure the reproducibility of results, whereas Burt L. Monroe (this volume, pp. 132–139) focused on transparency regarding data inspection and thus the credibility of results. We structured our rejoinder as follows: First, we draw on selected aspects Nelson and Monroe posed that we believe they consider to be most important to reflect on transparency in the context of big data and text-mining tools. Second, because quality criteria such as transparency do not exist in isolation, we complement the discussion on quality by adding general issues regarding overarching textmining methodology. Finally, we conclude by providing a prospect for further establishment of big data analysis in the social sciences.
我们感谢编委会有机会在研讨会对话中讨论我们在方法上的贡献,并感谢两位评论员鼓舞人心、富有挑战性的评论。我们特别高兴的是,评论员们一致认为,使用不同的文本挖掘工具,特别是地图分析,分析大数据中明显和潜在含义的动态具有相关性。根据我们的阅读,评论员关注的是质量标准,即研究过程中透明度的两个不同但高度相关的方面。Laura K.Nelson(本卷,第139-143页)专注于文本分析项目中研究重点和分析步骤的透明度,以确保结果的可重复性,而Burt L.Monroe(本卷第132-139页)则专注于数据检查的透明度,从而提高结果的可信度。我们的反驳结构如下:首先,我们借鉴了Nelson和Monroe提出的一些我们认为最重要的方面,以反映大数据和文本挖掘工具背景下的透明度。其次,由于透明度等质量标准并非孤立存在,我们通过添加有关总体文本挖掘方法的一般问题来补充关于质量的讨论。最后,我们对社会科学中大数据分析的进一步建立提供了展望。
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引用次数: 5
The Meanings of “Meaning” in Social Scientific Text Analysis 社会科学语篇分析中“意义”的含义
IF 3 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/0081175019865231
B. Monroe
Goldenstein and Poschmann (hereafter GP, this volume, pp. 83–131) offer a novel approach, or combination of approaches, for tracking multiple layers of “meaning” in a collection of texts over time. The core theoretical argument is sound: Any given text conveys multiple layers of meaning simultaneously, the relationships across those layers may evolve dynamically over time in any given corpus, and different textanalytic tools capture different layers of meaning and should be able to characterize this co-evolution if used in combination. In fact, similar logic underlies recent developments at the cutting edge of natural language processing (NLP) research. There are, however, some pernicious measurement traps in the text-analytic techniques GP apply here, and in the absence of some important validation, we cannot be certain that they have captured the meaning they assert.
Goldenstein和Poschmann(以下简称GP,本卷,第83-131页)提供了一种新的方法或方法的组合,用于随着时间的推移跟踪文本集合中的多层“意义”。核心理论论点是合理的:任何给定的文本都同时传达多层含义,在任何给定的语料库中,这些层之间的关系可能会随着时间的推移而动态演变,不同的文本分析工具捕捉不同的含义层,如果结合使用,应该能够描述这种共同演变。事实上,类似的逻辑是自然语言处理(NLP)研究前沿的最新发展的基础。然而,GP在这里应用的文本分析技术中存在一些有害的测量陷阱,在缺乏一些重要验证的情况下,我们不能确定它们是否捕捉到了它们所断言的含义。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Sociological Methodology
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