<p><b>World Bank Group, <i>World Development Report 2024: The Middle-income Trap</i>. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2024. xxx + 241 pp</b>. <b>www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2024</b></p><p>Over the past two decades, both within academia and in multilateral policy circles, significant attention has been devoted to analysing the ‘middle-income trap’ (MIT), which generally refers to a growth slowdown at middle-income levels (Agénor, <span>2016</span>; Doner and Schneider, <span>2016</span>; Felipe et al., <span>2012</span>; Gill and Kharas, <span>2007</span>; Im and Rosenblatt, <span>2013</span>). The growing literature on the MIT suggests widespread agreement that falling into this trap is likely. Yet it is not clear whether such a trap exists at all (see discussion in Kang and Paus, <span>2020</span>). Several studies have found no generalizable pattern indicative of a ‘trap’ facing middle-income countries (Pritchett and Summers, <span>2014</span>). Others have argued that growth slowdowns attributed to the MIT took place much earlier in Latin America and parts of Southeast Asia than its proponents suggest (Palma and Pincus, <span>2024</span>). Debates also persist over its multiple definitions, the income thresholds used to delineate it, and the empirical evidence required to identify a growth slowdown (Bulman et al., <span>2014</span>).</p><p>The growing prominence of the MIT concept in policy debates is most clearly reflected in the World Bank's most recent annual flagship publication, the <i>World Development Report 2024: The Middle-income Trap</i> (henceforth WDR 2024 or the Report). The Report's lead author, Indermit Gill, now Chief Economist of the World Bank, and Homi Kharas, a former World Bank official, are often cited as having first introduced the term (Gill and Kharas, <span>2007</span>). That said, many years prior, Arthur Lewis (<span>1980</span>) had already postulated that countries tend to experience a growth slowdown as they approach high-income status due to the diminishing benefits of labour transfers from the non-capitalist to the capitalist sector in the dual economy model, once the Lewis turning point is reached.</p><p>Our article has two main objectives. First, we critically review the WDR 2024 and highlight its shortcomings. Second, we discuss alternative frameworks for explaining growth slowdowns. We argue that the Report is an oddly defensive response to the recent surge in discussions around industrial policy, especially given the World Bank's earlier openness under Justin Lin's tenure as Chief Economist. We also contend that the Report represents an attempt at paradigm maintenance, intended to limit the role of the state as ruptures between the neoclassical view of industrial policies and the enactment of such policies in the Global South become increasingly visible. Such paradigm maintenance strategies have been a feature of earlier World Development Reports (Wade, <span>1996</span>). For example, following
{"title":"Middle-income Trap or Neoliberal Trap? Industrial Policy and Ideology in the World Development Report 2024","authors":"Pritish Behuria, Andy Sumner","doi":"10.1111/dech.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>World Bank Group, <i>World Development Report 2024: The Middle-income Trap</i>. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2024. xxx + 241 pp</b>. <b>www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2024</b></p><p>Over the past two decades, both within academia and in multilateral policy circles, significant attention has been devoted to analysing the ‘middle-income trap’ (MIT), which generally refers to a growth slowdown at middle-income levels (Agénor, <span>2016</span>; Doner and Schneider, <span>2016</span>; Felipe et al., <span>2012</span>; Gill and Kharas, <span>2007</span>; Im and Rosenblatt, <span>2013</span>). The growing literature on the MIT suggests widespread agreement that falling into this trap is likely. Yet it is not clear whether such a trap exists at all (see discussion in Kang and Paus, <span>2020</span>). Several studies have found no generalizable pattern indicative of a ‘trap’ facing middle-income countries (Pritchett and Summers, <span>2014</span>). Others have argued that growth slowdowns attributed to the MIT took place much earlier in Latin America and parts of Southeast Asia than its proponents suggest (Palma and Pincus, <span>2024</span>). Debates also persist over its multiple definitions, the income thresholds used to delineate it, and the empirical evidence required to identify a growth slowdown (Bulman et al., <span>2014</span>).</p><p>The growing prominence of the MIT concept in policy debates is most clearly reflected in the World Bank's most recent annual flagship publication, the <i>World Development Report 2024: The Middle-income Trap</i> (henceforth WDR 2024 or the Report). The Report's lead author, Indermit Gill, now Chief Economist of the World Bank, and Homi Kharas, a former World Bank official, are often cited as having first introduced the term (Gill and Kharas, <span>2007</span>). That said, many years prior, Arthur Lewis (<span>1980</span>) had already postulated that countries tend to experience a growth slowdown as they approach high-income status due to the diminishing benefits of labour transfers from the non-capitalist to the capitalist sector in the dual economy model, once the Lewis turning point is reached.</p><p>Our article has two main objectives. First, we critically review the WDR 2024 and highlight its shortcomings. Second, we discuss alternative frameworks for explaining growth slowdowns. We argue that the Report is an oddly defensive response to the recent surge in discussions around industrial policy, especially given the World Bank's earlier openness under Justin Lin's tenure as Chief Economist. We also contend that the Report represents an attempt at paradigm maintenance, intended to limit the role of the state as ruptures between the neoclassical view of industrial policies and the enactment of such policies in the Global South become increasingly visible. Such paradigm maintenance strategies have been a feature of earlier World Development Reports (Wade, <span>1996</span>). For example, following ","PeriodicalId":48194,"journal":{"name":"Development and Change","volume":"56 4-5","pages":"1061-1083"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dech.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145730501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article debates the prospect of renewables capitalism and the hypothesis that capitalism per se does not require fossil fuels from a feminist degrowth perspective by elucidating how capitalism, its imperatives and its contradictions — and thus the potentiality of renewables capitalism — would be viewed from this perspective. To this end, the article outlines a feminist degrowth understanding of capitalism by building on traditions and frameworks which inform degrowth thinking, delineating two aspects in particular: the biophysicality of capitalism and its conception as a heterogeneous social formation. This particular understanding of capitalism is then mobilized to elaborate on the potential contradictions of renewables capitalism, structured around the limits and constraints that the biophysical properties of renewables would pose for capitalism and the labour of social-ecological reproduction in renewables capitalism. The article concludes by highlighting the contribution of a feminist degrowth perspective to contemporary debates on renewables capitalism, as well as the lessons to be drawn from degrowth thinkers over the prospect of a renewables transition led by capital.
{"title":"Biophysicality, Social Reproduction and the Limits of Renewables Capitalism","authors":"Bengi Akbulut","doi":"10.1111/dech.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article debates the prospect of renewables capitalism and the hypothesis that capitalism per se does not require fossil fuels from a feminist degrowth perspective by elucidating how capitalism, its imperatives and its contradictions — and thus the potentiality of renewables capitalism — would be viewed from this perspective. To this end, the article outlines a feminist degrowth understanding of capitalism by building on traditions and frameworks which inform degrowth thinking, delineating two aspects in particular: the biophysicality of capitalism and its conception as a heterogeneous social formation. This particular understanding of capitalism is then mobilized to elaborate on the potential contradictions of renewables capitalism, structured around the limits and constraints that the biophysical properties of renewables would pose for capitalism and the labour of social-ecological reproduction in renewables capitalism. The article concludes by highlighting the contribution of a feminist degrowth perspective to contemporary debates on renewables capitalism, as well as the lessons to be drawn from degrowth thinkers over the prospect of a renewables transition led by capital.</p>","PeriodicalId":48194,"journal":{"name":"Development and Change","volume":"56 4-5","pages":"729-754"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dech.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145719591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Debate section asks whether developing countries can leverage the transition to renewables capitalism to escape their peripheral status in the global economy. This contribution focuses on how capitalism, and thus also renewables capitalism, creates windows of opportunity during periods of disruptive technological change and how latecomer countries can exploit these windows for technological catch-up; it suggests possible pathways out of the periphery that have been downplayed or overlooked in the development studies literature. The authors argue that successfully leveraging windows of opportunity requires three interconnected dynamics: (1) local firms must access and assimilate foreign knowledge through transnational networks; (2) firms must use this knowledge base for innovation while securing adequate market demand and financing to scale production and reduce costs; and (3) governments must provide strategic support through targeted industrial policies. The article makes a novel contribution to the debate on technological catch-up in development studies by demonstrating that all three dynamics are not only important but necessary for technological catch-up. It illustrates this argument through two industry case studies from the more distant past (South Korea and Taiwan in semiconductors) and the more recent past (China in electric vehicles). Its insights can inform strategies regarding the windows of opportunity related to green decarbonization technologies which will inevitably arise under renewables capitalism.
{"title":"Opportunities for Latecomer Technological Catch-up in the Era of Renewables Capitalism: Possible Pathways out of the Periphery","authors":"Lindsay Whitfield, Tobias Wuttke","doi":"10.1111/dech.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.70016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Debate section asks whether developing countries can leverage the transition to renewables capitalism to escape their peripheral status in the global economy. This contribution focuses on how capitalism, and thus also renewables capitalism, creates windows of opportunity during periods of disruptive technological change and how latecomer countries can exploit these windows for technological catch-up; it suggests possible pathways out of the periphery that have been downplayed or overlooked in the development studies literature. The authors argue that successfully leveraging windows of opportunity requires three interconnected dynamics: (1) local firms must access and assimilate foreign knowledge through transnational networks; (2) firms must use this knowledge base for innovation while securing adequate market demand and financing to scale production and reduce costs; and (3) governments must provide strategic support through targeted industrial policies. The article makes a novel contribution to the debate on technological catch-up in development studies by demonstrating that all three dynamics are not only important but necessary for technological catch-up. It illustrates this argument through two industry case studies from the more distant past (South Korea and Taiwan in semiconductors) and the more recent past (China in electric vehicles). Its insights can inform strategies regarding the windows of opportunity related to green decarbonization technologies which will inevitably arise under renewables capitalism.</p>","PeriodicalId":48194,"journal":{"name":"Development and Change","volume":"56 4-5","pages":"783-812"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dech.70016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145730413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines the destruction of Gaza since October 2023 as part of a longer settler-colonial project in which war, reconstruction and development are inseparably linked. Far from a rupture, the devastation exemplifies a historical continuum of erasure, from the Nakba of 1948 to contemporary schemes such as ‘Gaza 2035’, which envision the territory as a depopulated investment frontier for energy, logistics and speculative urbanism. Situating Palestine within comparative settler-colonial scholarship, the article highlights how development and humanitarian discourses function as technologies of control, embedding dispossession within fiscal regimes, aid dependency and infrastructural planning. Tracing these dynamics through the Oslo Accords, donor interventions and regional economic normalization, it shows how neoliberal frameworks have transformed reconstruction into an extension of war by other means. In this system, Israel emerges not only as militarily dominant but also as economically indispensable, its occupation sustained through global markets, supply chains and international complicity.
{"title":"Development as Erasure: Palestine, Genocide and ‘Reconstruction’","authors":"Rafeef Ziadah","doi":"10.1111/dech.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines the destruction of Gaza since October 2023 as part of a longer settler-colonial project in which war, reconstruction and development are inseparably linked. Far from a rupture, the devastation exemplifies a historical continuum of erasure, from the Nakba of 1948 to contemporary schemes such as ‘Gaza 2035’, which envision the territory as a depopulated investment frontier for energy, logistics and speculative urbanism. Situating Palestine within comparative settler-colonial scholarship, the article highlights how development and humanitarian discourses function as technologies of control, embedding dispossession within fiscal regimes, aid dependency and infrastructural planning. Tracing these dynamics through the Oslo Accords, donor interventions and regional economic normalization, it shows how neoliberal frameworks have transformed reconstruction into an extension of war by other means. In this system, Israel emerges not only as militarily dominant but also as economically indispensable, its occupation sustained through global markets, supply chains and international complicity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48194,"journal":{"name":"Development and Change","volume":"56 4-5","pages":"597-618"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dech.70014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145719361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}