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Testing Causal Theories with Learned Proxies 用学习代理检验因果理论
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-06 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-111443
D. Knox, Christopher Lucas, W. Cho
Social scientists commonly use computational models to estimate proxies of unobserved concepts, then incorporate these proxies into subsequent tests of their theories. The consequences of this practice, which occurs in over two-thirds of recent computational work in political science, are underappreciated. Imperfect proxies can reflect noise and contamination from other concepts, producing biased point estimates and standard errors. We demonstrate how analysts can use causal diagrams to articulate theoretical concepts and their relationships to estimated proxies, then apply straightforward rules to assess which conclusions are rigorously supportable. We formalize and extend common heuristics for “signing the bias”—a technique for reasoning about unobserved confounding—to scenarios with imperfect proxies. Using these tools, we demonstrate how, in often-encountered research settings, proxy-based analyses allow for valid tests for the existence and direction of theorized effects. We conclude with best-practice recommendations for the rapidly growing literature using learned proxies to test causal theories. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
社会科学家通常使用计算模型来估计未观察到的概念的代理,然后将这些代理合并到他们理论的后续测试中。这种做法的后果,发生在最近超过三分之二的政治学计算工作中,被低估了。不完美的代理可以反映噪声和其他概念的污染,产生有偏差的点估计和标准误差。我们演示了分析师如何使用因果图来阐明理论概念及其与估计代理的关系,然后应用简单的规则来评估哪些结论是严格支持的。我们将“为偏差签名”(一种对未观察到的混淆进行推理的技术)的常见启发式形式化并扩展到具有不完美代理的场景。使用这些工具,我们展示了在经常遇到的研究设置中,基于代理的分析如何允许对理论化效应的存在和方向进行有效的测试。最后,我们为快速增长的文献提供了最佳实践建议,这些文献使用学习代理来测试因果理论。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 11
Elites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign Policy 制定和打破外交政策的精英
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-12-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-103330
E. Saunders
Scholarship on elites and foreign policy has made important advances in identifying who elites are, what elites want, and how elites influence foreign policy. This review assesses these advances, focusing on the tension between elites’ expertise, on the one hand, and resentment of elites as selfish or unrepresentative of the people's interests, on the other. What remains missing in the literature on elites and foreign policy are the dynamics of elite politics. The same elites can behave very differently in different settings, and elites frequently do not get what they want on foreign policy despite strong preferences. To understand this variation, we need more research on three kinds of elite politics: how elites attain their positions; their incentives once they arrive in those positions; and how elites relate to each other and to mass publics. Without attending to elite politics, we miss important sources of state behavior. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
关于精英和外交政策的学术研究在确定精英是谁、精英想要什么以及精英如何影响外交政策方面取得了重要进展。本文对这些进步进行了评估,重点关注精英们的专业知识与对精英们自私或不代表人民利益的怨恨之间的紧张关系。关于精英和外交政策的文献中仍然缺少的是精英政治的动态。同样的精英在不同的环境下可能表现得非常不同,尽管他们有强烈的偏好,但他们在外交政策上往往得不到他们想要的。为了理解这种差异,我们需要对三种精英政治进行更多的研究:精英如何获得他们的职位;一旦他们到达这些职位,他们的动机;以及精英们如何相互联系,如何与大众联系。如果不关注精英政治,我们就会错过国家行为的重要来源。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 13
Three Faces of Climate Justice 气候正义的三面
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-125514
N. Dolšak, A. Prakash
There is overwhelming consensus about the science of climate change. Climate politics, however, remains volatile, driven by perceptions of injustice, which motivate policy resistance and undermine policy legitimacy. We identify three types of injustice. The first pertains to the uneven exposure to climate change impacts across countries and communities within a country. Socially, politically, and economically disadvantaged communities that have contributed the least to the climate crisis tend to be affected the most. To address climate change and its impacts, countries and subnational units have enacted a range of policies. But even carefully designed mitigation and adaptation policies distribute costs (the second justice dimension) and benefits (the third justice dimension) unevenly across sectors and communities, often reproducing existing inequalities. Climate justice requires paying careful attention to who bears the costs and who gets the benefits of both climate inaction and action. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
关于气候变化的科学,人们达成了压倒性的共识。然而,气候政治仍然不稳定,受到不公正观念的驱动,这激发了政策阻力,破坏了政策的合法性。我们确定了三种不公正。第一个问题涉及国家之间和国家内部社区对气候变化影响的不均衡暴露。对气候危机贡献最小的社会、政治和经济弱势群体往往受到的影响最大。为了应对气候变化及其影响,国家和地方单位制定了一系列政策。但是,即使是精心设计的缓解和适应政策,在各个部门和社区之间的成本(第二个正义维度)和收益(第三个正义维度)分配也不均衡,往往会再现现有的不平等。气候正义需要认真关注谁承担成本,谁从气候不作为和气候行动中获益。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 18
The American Political Economy: Markets, Power, and the Meta Politics of US Economic Governance 美国政治经济学:市场、权力和美国经济治理的元政治
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-013916
J. Hacker, Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, P. Pierson, K. Thelen
This article provides an overview of the emerging field of American political economy (APE). Methodologically eclectic, this field seeks to understand the interaction of markets and government in America's unequal and polarized polity. Though situated within American politics research, APE draws from comparative political economy to develop a broad approach that departs from the American politics mainstream in two main ways. First, APE focuses on the interaction of markets and governance, a peripheral concern in much American politics research. Second, it invokes a theoretical orientation attentive to what we call meta politics—the processes of institution shaping, agenda setting, and venue shopping that unfold before and alongside the more visible processes of mass politics that figure so centrally in American politics research. These substantive and theoretical differences expand the study of American politics into neglected yet vital domains, generating fresh insights into the United States’ distinctive mix of capitalism and democracy. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
本文概述了美国政治经济学这一新兴领域。在方法论上,这个领域试图理解美国不平等和两极化政体中市场和政府的相互作用。虽然它位于美国政治研究的范围内,但APE借鉴了比较政治经济学,在两个主要方面发展了一种与美国政治主流不同的广泛方法。首先,APE关注的是市场与治理的相互作用,这是许多美国政治研究的外围关注点。其次,它需要一种关注我们所谓的元政治的理论取向——制度形成、议程设置和场地选择的过程,这些过程在美国政治研究中占据中心位置的更明显的大众政治过程之前和旁边展开。这些实质上和理论上的差异将对美国政治的研究扩展到被忽视但至关重要的领域,对美国独特的资本主义和民主的混合产生了新的见解。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 10
Political Participation Amid Mass Incarceration 大规模监禁中的政治参与
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-29 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-014809
Ariel White
Contact with the carceral state—ranging from police stops to prison time—is a frequent experience in the United States, particularly in communities marginalized on the basis of race and class. In recent years, political scientists have sought to measure the impacts of these encounters on individuals’ and communities’ political engagement. This review describes the main sources of evidence in this literature and what we learn from them. I present a series of stylized facts about the carceral state and political behavior, highlighting places where we know a great deal (such as the relative underrepresentation of people with criminal convictions among voters) and places where more work is needed (such as nonvoting participation and community spillovers). Then, I discuss policy proposals that seek to mitigate the political impacts of the carceral state, and what is and is not yet known about what they might accomplish. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
在美国,特别是在因种族和阶级而被边缘化的社区,与监狱国家(从警察拦截到监狱时间)接触是一种常见的经历。近年来,政治学家试图衡量这些遭遇对个人和社区政治参与的影响。这篇综述描述了文献中证据的主要来源以及我们从中学到的东西。我提出了一系列关于州和政治行为的风格化事实,强调了我们了解很多的地方(比如有犯罪前科的人在选民中的代表性相对不足)和需要更多工作的地方(比如不参与投票和社区溢出效应)。然后,我讨论了旨在减轻专制国家政治影响的政策建议,以及它们可能实现的目标。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 5
Race in International Relations: Beyond the “Norm Against Noticing” 国际关系中的种族:超越“反对注意的规范”
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-18 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051820-120746
Bianca Freeman, D.G. Kim, David A. Lake
The global movement for racial justice and the rise of anti-Asian hate at the height of the pandemic have called new attention to race and racism in international politics. Although critical theorists have decried the “norm against noticing,” other scholars of international relations have long sidestepped the possible role of race in shaping contemporary international affairs. New studies of hierarchy in international relations open the door for new understandings of race in world politics. We propose an analytic framework for the relationship between racial hierarchy, international law, and foreign policy, demonstrating that race can help explain patterns of interstate interactions that sustain an unequal global order. Positing two faces of racism in international relations, we examine how race biases international law in practice and affects the assessment of foreign threats and national interest. We discuss key methodological challenges in empirical research on race in international relations, focusing on issues of measurement, aggregation, and causation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
全球种族正义运动以及在疫情最严重时期出现的反亚洲仇恨情绪,促使人们重新关注国际政治中的种族和种族主义问题。尽管批判理论家谴责“不注意的规范”,但其他国际关系学者长期以来一直回避种族在塑造当代国际事务中的可能作用。对国际关系中等级制度的新研究为对世界政治中的种族问题的新理解打开了大门。我们提出了种族等级制度、国际法和外交政策之间关系的分析框架,证明种族可以帮助解释维持不平等全球秩序的州际互动模式。假设种族主义在国际关系中的两个方面,我们研究种族在实践中如何影响国际法,并影响对外国威胁和国家利益的评估。我们讨论了国际关系中种族实证研究中的关键方法论挑战,重点是测量、汇总和因果关系问题。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 5
Government Responsiveness in Developing Countries 发展中国家的政府反应能力
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-17 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-112501
Guy Grossman, Tara Slough
When and how do governments deliver public goods and services in response to citizen preferences? We review the current literature on government responsiveness, with a focus on public goods and service delivery in developing countries. We identify three types of actors that are commonly present in these accounts: politicians, bureaucrats, and citizens. Much of this literature examines interactions between dyads of these actors. The study of electoral accountability and constituency services emphasizes relationships between citizens (or voters) and politicians. Studies of bureaucratic incentives and political oversight of bureaucrats emphasize interactions between politicians and bureaucrats. Finally, studies of bureaucratic embeddedness and citizen oversight of bureaucrats elaborate the interactions between bureaucrats and citizens. We argue that an emerging literature that considers interactions between all three types of actors provides rich theoretical and empirical terrain for developing our understanding of responsiveness and accountability in low- and middle-income countries and beyond. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
政府何时以及如何根据公民的偏好提供公共产品和服务?我们回顾了当前关于政府响应的文献,重点关注发展中国家的公共产品和服务提供。我们确定了这些账户中常见的三种类型的参与者:政治家、官僚和公民。这方面的很多文献都考察了这些参与者之间的相互作用。选举问责制和选区服务的研究强调公民(或选民)和政治家之间的关系。官僚激励和官僚政治监督的研究强调政治家和官僚之间的相互作用。最后,关于官僚嵌入性和公民对官僚的监督的研究阐述了官僚与公民之间的互动关系。我们认为,考虑所有三种行为者之间相互作用的新兴文献为发展我们对低收入和中等收入国家及其他国家的响应性和问责制的理解提供了丰富的理论和实证领域。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 14
The Power of Beliefs 信念的力量
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-15 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-013517
M. Levi
My commitment to combining normative concerns with empirical social science led, perhaps a bit counterintuitively, to early adoption of rational choice political economy. However, it was a modified form of rational choice that takes into account ethical and societal concerns. This was the approach I applied to considerations of compliance and consent with government, what makes a trustworthy government, the formation of legitimating beliefs, and finally the construction of an expanded and inclusive community of fate as a building block for a new moral political economy. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
我致力于将规范性问题与经验社会科学结合起来,这可能有点违反直觉,导致了理性选择政治经济学的早期采用。然而,它是考虑到伦理和社会问题的理性选择的一种改良形式。这就是我应用于考虑服从和同意政府的方法,是什么造就了一个值得信赖的政府,形成了合法的信仰,最后构建了一个扩大和包容的命运共同体,作为一个新的道德政治经济学的基石。预计《政治学年度评论》第25卷的最终在线出版日期为2022年5月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 1
Secrecy in International Relations and Foreign Policy 国际关系和外交政策中的保密
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-05-13 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-POLISCI-041719-102430
A. Carnegie
Scholarship on the politics of secrecy in international relations and foreign policy has experienced tremendous growth in recent years. This article begins by providing an overview of this literatu...
近年来,关于国际关系和外交政策中的保密政治的学术研究有了巨大的增长。本文首先概述了这些文献。
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引用次数: 11
How Do Electoral Gender Quotas Affect Policy 选举性别配额如何影响政策
IF 10.8 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-05-13 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-POLISCI-041719-102019
Amanda Clayton
Electoral gender quotas now exist in a majority of national legislatures worldwide. In general, quotas are followed by greater legislative attention to the interests and priorities of women as a gr...
全世界大多数国家立法机构现在都有选举性别配额。一般来说,在配额之后,立法机构会更加注意妇女作为一个群体的利益和优先事项。
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引用次数: 27
期刊
Annual Review of Political Science
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