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Demonstrated risk preferences and COVID-19 regulations in the United States 美国的示范风险偏好和 COVID-19 法规
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01185-x
Peter Anderson

Research has pointed towards U.S. state officials setting COVID regulations based on their constituents’ political affiliation. But a further explanation is needed as prior to 2020, U.S. voters did not choose their political party in accord with how they thought politicians would act in a pandemic. In contrast, other papers have found that people with higher risk preferences took fewer mitigating actions during COVID. Building on these results and the public choice view that political markets lack a dynamic-feedback process, this paper hypothesizes that upcoming elections incentivized state officials to partially set regulations in congruence with their constituents’ demonstrated risk preferences. The hypothesis is tested with a balanced panel of all U.S. states over seven time periods ranging from April until shortly before the 2020 election. A log-linear hybrid model finds a negative relationship between risky actions and the stringency of COVID regulations at the between-state level. The relationship is statistically and regulatorily significant while controlling for relevant time-varying and time-invariant health, political, and economic measures. Multiple robustness tests confirm these results, including instrumenting people’s risky actions. At the within-state level, regulations only varied with changes in revealed risk preferences when governors faced impending feedback from a reelection contest. Republican governors running for reelection decreased regulations when revealed risk taking increased whereas their Democratic counterparts responded by increasing regulations. In states without a gubernatorial election, regulations show little responsiveness to changes in risk taking, corroborating the public choice viewpoint.

研究表明,美国各州官员是根据其选民的政治派别来制定 COVID 法规的。但这需要进一步的解释,因为在 2020 年之前,美国选民在选择政党时并没有考虑到他们认为政治家在大流行病中会采取什么行动。相反,其他论文发现,风险偏好较高的人在 COVID 期间采取的缓解行动较少。基于这些结果以及政治市场缺乏动态反馈过程的公共选择观点,本文假设即将到来的选举会激励州政府官员根据选民表现出的风险偏好制定部分法规。本文使用美国各州在从 4 月到 2020 年大选前不久的七个时间段内的平衡面板对这一假设进行了检验。对数线性混合模型发现,在州与州之间,风险行动与 COVID 法规的严格程度之间存在负相关关系。在控制了相关的时变和时不变的健康、政治和经济指标后,这种关系在统计和调节上都是显著的。多种稳健性检验证实了这些结果,包括对人们的风险行为进行工具检验。在州内层面,只有当州长面临即将到来的连任竞选反馈时,法规才会随着所揭示的风险偏好的变化而变化。竞选连任的共和党州长在揭示的风险偏好增加时会减少监管,而民主党州长则会增加监管。在没有州长选举的州,法规对风险承担的变化几乎没有反应,这证实了公共选择的观点。
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引用次数: 0
Popular autocrats: why do voters support Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary? A quantitative analysis 受欢迎的专制者:选民为何支持匈牙利维克托-欧尔班政府?定量分析
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01175-z
Áron Hajnal

Authoritarian populism has become an increasingly prevalent subtype of hybrid regime and is characterized by weakened democratic institutions and a leader who relies on populist appeals. Authoritarian populist regimes limit citizens’ freedom, undermine accountability and the rule of law, and are likely to be more corrupt than democratic regimes. Nevertheless, certain authoritarian populist regimes appear to enjoy broad popular support. Based on the European Social Survey database and my calculations of respondents’ personal income tax rates, I investigate the factors that influenced voters’ support for Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary from 2010 to 2020, which may be considered an exemplary case of an autocratic populist regime. The analysis shows that voters’ support for the government was influenced by their perceptions of the economy and government performance, political beliefs (i.e., policy congruence and ideology), and basic human values (i.e., self-transcendence and conservation). By contrast, changes in voters’ individual economic conditions were not found to be associated with their support for the government. The findings indicate that, in addition to explanations of government support that specifically focus on hybrid regimes, economic voting theory, which originated from and has typically been applied in democratic contexts, also provides viable explanations for understanding support for authoritarian populist regimes. More broadly, the findings also lend support to the altruistic and expressive voter hypotheses.

专制民粹主义已成为混合政权中日益盛行的一种亚类型,其特点是民主体制被削弱,领导人依靠民粹主义的号召力。专制民粹主义政权限制公民自由,破坏问责制和法治,可能比民主政权更加腐败。然而,某些专制民粹主义政权似乎得到了广泛的民众支持。基于欧洲社会调查数据库和我对受访者个人所得税税率的计算,我研究了 2010 年至 2020 年影响选民支持匈牙利维克托-欧尔班政府的因素,匈牙利可被视为专制民粹主义政权的典范。分析表明,选民对政府的支持受到他们对经济和政府表现的看法、政治信仰(即政策一致性和意识形态)以及人类基本价值观(即自我超越和保护)的影响。相比之下,选民个人经济状况的变化与他们对政府的支持并无关联。研究结果表明,除了专门针对混合政权的政府支持率解释外,源自民主背景并通常应用于民主背景的经济投票理论也为理解专制民粹主义政权的支持率提供了可行的解释。更广泛地说,研究结果也支持利他主义和表现型选民假设。
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引用次数: 0
Jurisdiction size and perceived corruption 辖区大小与腐败感知
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01188-8
Abel François, Nicolas Lagios, Pierre-Guillaume Méon

This paper studies the relationship between the size of a jurisdiction and how corrupt its citizens perceive officials to be. The relationship may a priori be driven by four distinct mechanisms: (i) larger communities have more officials, thereby making it more likely at least one official is corrupt; (ii) larger communities have a larger budget, thereby offering more opportunity for corruption; (iii) monitoring officials is costlier in larger communities; and (iv) the public is less likely to have contact with officials in larger communities, which raises citizens’ suspicion. First, using cross-country analysis, we establish that people perceive more corruption in countries with larger populations. We then test this stylized fact using French survey data on the perception of municipal government corruption. We again observe that the perception of corruption increases with population size. This result is robust to a series of checks and many confounding factors. Moreover, our results hold across two distinct periods and for another administrative unit, departments. Finally, we report suggestive evidence that the stylized fact is driven by mechanisms (i) and (ii), but not by (iii) and (iv).

本文研究了一个司法管辖区的规模与其公民认为官员腐败程度之间的关系。这种关系可能先验地受到四种不同机制的驱动:(i) 较大的社区有更多的官员,因此更有可能至少有一名官员是腐败的;(ii) 较大的社区有更多的预算,因此提供了更多的腐败机会;(iii) 在较大的社区监督官员的成本较高;(iv) 公众与较大社区的官员接触的可能性较小,从而提高了公民的怀疑。首先,通过跨国分析,我们确定在人口较多的国家,人们认为腐败现象更严重。然后,我们利用法国关于市政府腐败认知的调查数据来检验这一典型事实。我们再次发现,人们对腐败的感知随着人口数量的增加而增加。这一结果经受住了一系列检查和许多干扰因素的考验。此外,我们的结果在两个不同时期以及另一个行政单位--省--都是成立的。最后,我们报告了一些提示性证据,表明风格化事实是由机制(i)和(ii)驱动的,而不是由机制(iii)和(iv)驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental regulation, regulatory spillovers and rent-seeking 环境监管、监管溢出效应和寻租
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01189-7
Juan Pablo González

How do special interests react to an increase in their regulatory burden? In this paper, I use a shock to the regulatory environment by analyzing state-level enforcement of the Clean Air Act during the fracking boom. First, I show that fracking is associated with an increase in state regulatory activities for non-energy-related industries, generating regulatory spillovers to firms unrelated to fracking. Using the fact that fracking had regulatory spillovers to other industries, I use the presence of fracking as an instrument for environmental regulation for non-energy-related firms. I find that increased environmental enforcement is associated with an increase in state campaign contributions going to Republicans, and particularly to legislative races in competitive districts. These results provide some of the first evidence that changes in the regulatory environment can spur private sector mobilization with the potential to affect broader areas of policy through its electoral consequences.

特殊利益集团如何应对监管负担的增加?在本文中,我通过分析各州在压裂热潮期间对《清洁空气法》的执行情况,对监管环境进行了冲击。首先,我证明了压裂与各州对非能源相关行业监管活动的增加有关,从而对与压裂无关的企业产生了监管溢出效应。利用压裂对其他行业产生监管溢出效应这一事实,我将压裂的存在作为非能源相关企业环境监管的工具。我发现,环境执法的加强与州政府对共和党的竞选捐款增加有关,尤其是对竞争激烈的选区的立法选举。这些结果首次证明,监管环境的变化可以刺激私营部门的动员,并有可能通过其选举后果影响更广泛的政策领域。
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引用次数: 0
Internet Addiction and Psychological Health in Adolescent Indian Medical Students: A Cross-sectional Study. 印度青少年医学生的网络成瘾与心理健康:一项横断面研究。
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.32598/bcn.2021.3295.2
Megha Agrawal, Sowmya Rajaram, Girija Kumar

Introduction: With the presence of the internet in daily life, it has become crucial to explore its purposes, implications, and effects on the mental health of users. As adolescents are a vulnerable age group, this study was conducted on Indian medical students in late adolescence to learn how the internet impacts their lives. We aim to explore the severity of problematic internet use (PIU) in Indian medical students. We intend to assess its effects on psychological health and loneliness and correlate PIU with the purpose of using the internet.

Methods: A total of 185 first-year MBBS students of Bangalore Medical College and Research Institute (mean age: 18.07 years) were recruited and administered four questionnaires: Young's internet addiction test (YIAT20), UCLA loneliness questionnaire (version 3), general health questionnaire (GHQ12), and a self-administered questionnaire (to assess the purpose of internet usage).

Results: Out of 185 students, 67 were average users with complete control of their internet use, and 118 had PIU (113 with frequent, 5 with significant problems). PIU showed a significant positive correlation with psychological morbidity (r=0.34, P<0.0001) and loneliness (r=0.20, P=0.01). Daily mean use of the internet was mostly for social media (51.2%), followed by academics (20%), others (20%), and gaming (8.2%). PIU was significantly and positively correlated to social media usage (r=0.27, P=0.00) and negatively correlated to academics (r=-0.37, P<0.0001).

Conclusion: In our study, PIU was positively correlated to poor psychological health, loneliness, and use of social media. It showed a negative correlation with academics. This situation may suggest that PIU is linked to psychosocial implications. It may be worthwhile to correlate the purpose of use with the severity of PIU. Social media seems important in India as opposed to China, where gaming is the major concern. As some activities could be more addictive than others and result in a dysfunctional lifestyle, internet use must be regulated and used judiciously.

简介随着互联网在日常生活中的普及,探索其目的、意义以及对用户心理健康的影响变得至关重要。由于青少年是一个易受伤害的年龄段,本研究以处于青春期后期的印度医科学生为对象,以了解互联网对他们生活的影响。我们旨在探讨印度医学生使用问题互联网(PIU)的严重程度。我们打算评估其对心理健康和孤独感的影响,并将 PIU 与使用互联网的目的联系起来:共招募了 185 名班加罗尔医学院和研究所的 MBBS 一年级学生(平均年龄:18.07 岁),并对他们进行了四次问卷调查:杨氏网瘾测试(YIAT20)、加州大学洛杉矶分校孤独感问卷(第 3 版)、一般健康问卷(GHQ12)和自制问卷(评估使用互联网的目的):在 185 名学生中,67 名是完全控制自己上网的普通用户,118 名有 PIU(113 名经常出现问题,5 名有严重问题)。PIU与心理发病率呈显著正相关(r=0.34,PC结论:在我们的研究中,PIU 与心理健康状况不佳、孤独感和社交媒体的使用呈正相关。它与学业呈负相关。这种情况可能表明,PIU 与社会心理影响有关。也许值得将使用目的与 PIU 的严重程度联系起来。在印度,社交媒体似乎很重要,而在中国,游戏是主要关注点。由于某些活动可能比其他活动更容易使人上瘾,并导致生活方式失调,因此必须对互联网的使用进行监管,并谨慎使用。
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引用次数: 0
Movement split: how the structure of revolutionary coalitions shapes revolutionary outcomes 运动分裂:革命联盟的结构如何塑造革命成果
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01170-4
Benjamin Abrams

This article investigates the relationship between the coalitional structure of revolutionary movements and revolutionary outcomes. Noting the chimerical nature of revolutionary coalitions, it introduces readers to the concept of ‘movement split’: the moment in a revolutionary process when, once a regime is overthrown, the revolutionary coalition fractures into ‘radicals’, who seek further, social revolution; and ‘conservatives’ who are satisfied with a limited, political revolution. By means of a comparative historical analysis of the 1789 French Revolution and 2011 Egyptian Revolution, it analyses the role of coalition structure in determining revolutionary outcomes after movement split. In both cases, the distribution of mobilizing capacity between radicals and conservatives was the key factor determining whether each revolutionary movement came to pursue a ‘political’ or ‘social’ revolutionary’ program. Where conservatives retained control over mobilization, advancement of the revolutionary process ended once political revolution was achieved, while when radicals retained control, a process of social revolution was undertaken. Thus, when seeking to anticipate the trajectory of change an emergent revolutionary movement is liable to undertake, it is fruitful to examine whether it is radicals or conservatives who control its principal mobilizing structures.

本文探讨了革命运动的联盟结构与革命结果之间的关系。文章注意到革命联盟的虚幻性,向读者介绍了 "运动分裂 "的概念:在革命进程中,一旦政权被推翻,革命联盟就会分裂为 "激进派 "和 "保守派"。"激进派 "寻求进一步的社会革命,而 "保守派 "则满足于有限的政治革命。通过对 1789 年法国大革命和 2011 年埃及革命的历史比较分析,本报告分析了运动分裂后联盟结构对革命结果的决定作用。在这两次革命中,激进派和保守派之间动员能力的分配是决定每场革命运动是追求 "政治革命 "还是 "社会革命 "纲领的关键因素。在保守派继续控制动员能力的情况下,一旦实现了政治革命,革命进程的推进就会结束;而在激进派继续控制动员能力的情况下,革命进程就会转向社会革命。因此,在试图预测一场新兴革命运动可能会经历的变革轨迹时,研究控制其主要动员结构的是激进派还是保守派是很有帮助的。
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引用次数: 0
Revolution and Institutional Change: an introduction to the special issue 革命与体制变革:特刊导言
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01183-z
Mehrdad Vahabi

This special issue reflects one of the first systematic inquiries into the effects of revolutions on institutional change, a topic previously explored only tangentially across diverse social science domains. It fosters interdisciplinary discourse on revolutionary outcomes among economists, political scientists, sociologists, and economic historians informed by the public choice research program. The issue is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on regime overthrow and institutional transformation and the second of which focuses on rational-choice theoretic analyses of revolution and its results. By employing analytical narratives and comparative analyses of contemporary and historical revolutions, the issue advances both theoretical and empirical understandings of revolution, revolutionary dynamics, and their implications.

本特刊反映了对革命对制度变迁的影响的首次系统性研究,而这一主题以前只是在不同的社会科学领域中进行了浅层次的探讨。它促进了经济学家、政治学家、社会学家和经济史学家在公共选择研究计划的指导下就革命结果进行跨学科讨论。本期杂志分为两部分,第一部分侧重于政权推翻和制度转型,第二部分侧重于对革命及其结果的理性选择理论分析。通过对当代革命和历史革命的分析叙述和比较分析,本期杂志推进了对革命、革命动力及其影响的理论和实证理解。
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引用次数: 0
Ruled by robots: preference for algorithmic decision makers and perceptions of their choices 被机器人统治:对算法决策者的偏好以及对其选择的看法
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01178-w
Marina Chugunova, Wolfgang J. Luhan

As technology-assisted decision-making is becoming more widespread, it is important to understand how the algorithmic nature of the decision maker affects how decisions are perceived by those affected. We use an online experiment to study the preference for human or algorithmic decision makers in redistributive decisions. In particular, we consider whether an algorithmic decision maker will be preferred because of its impartiality. Contrary to previous findings, the majority of participants (over 60%) prefer the algorithm as a decision maker over a human—but this is not driven by concerns over biased decisions. However, despite this preference, the decisions made by humans are regarded more favorably. Subjective ratings of the decisions are mainly driven by participants’ own material interests and fairness ideals. Participants tolerate any explainable deviation between the actual decision and their ideals but react very strongly and negatively to redistribution decisions that are not consistent with any fairness principles.

随着技术辅助决策的普及,了解决策者的算法性质如何影响受影响者对决策的看法非常重要。我们利用在线实验来研究在再分配决策中对人类决策者还是算法决策者的偏好。我们特别考虑了算法决策者是否会因为其公正性而受到青睐。与之前的研究结果相反,大多数参与者(超过 60%)更倾向于选择算法作为决策者,而不是人类--但这并不是因为担心决策存在偏见。不过,尽管有这种偏好,人类做出的决定还是更受青睐。对决策的主观评价主要受参与者自身的物质利益和公平理想的驱动。参与者可以容忍实际决策与他们的理想之间任何可以解释的偏差,但对不符合任何公平原则的再分配决策则反应非常强烈和消极。
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引用次数: 0
A tournament theory of congressional committee leadership 国会委员会领导力的锦标赛理论
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01184-y
Christian Fong, Joshua McCrain

We apply tournament theory to congressional leadership to unify research on campaign finance with theories of endogenous party strength. Parties want to incentivize members to do costly work for the benefit of the party, such as fundraising. Accordingly, they make leadership offices attractive and award these leadership offices on the basis of who does the most work for the party. The more attractive the leadership office becomes, the harder party members work to win. We present a model to formalize this argument, derive its empirical implications, and find support for these implications using data from committee assignments, committee authorizations, and fundraising for leadership political action committees and congressional hill committees.

我们将锦标赛理论应用于国会领导层,将竞选融资研究与内生党派力量理论统一起来。党派希望激励党员为党的利益做代价高昂的工作,如筹款。因此,他们会使领导职位具有吸引力,并根据谁为党做的工作最多来授予这些领导职位。领导职位越有吸引力,党员就越努力工作以赢得领导职位。我们提出了一个模型来正式表述这一论点,推导出其经验含义,并利用领导层政治行动委员会和国会山丘委员会的委员会分配、委员会授权和筹款数据为这些含义提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
Rosters and connected apportionments 名册和相关摊款
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01182-0
Manshu Khanna, Haydar Evren

Affirmative action in India reserves explicit proportions of seats and jobs in publicly funded institutions for various beneficiary groups. Because seats are indivisible and arise in small numbers over time, implementation of this policy requires that beneficiary groups take turns claiming seats, for which purpose India relies on a device called a roster. We study the problem of constructing a roster, which involves addressing a series of connected apportionment problems. To identify suitable apportionment methods, six essential requirements direct our search to a large class of divisor methods. We show that the Webster–Sainte-Laguë method is the unique divisor method that satisfies several practical properties and fairness criteria. Comparative analysis between an existing Indian roster and the application of the Webster–Sainte-Laguë method highlights that method’s benefits.

印度的平权行动在公共资助机构中为各受益群体保留了明确比例的席位和工作。由于席位是不可分割的,而且随着时间的推移出现的席位数量很少,因此实施这项政策需要受益群体轮流申请席位,为此印度采用了一种叫做花名册的装置。我们研究了构建名册的问题,这涉及到一系列相关的分配问题。为了确定合适的分配方法,我们需要满足六个基本要求,并寻找一大类除法。我们的研究表明,韦伯斯特-圣-拉古方法是唯一一种满足多项实用特性和公平标准的除数方法。对现有的印度花名册和 Webster-Sainte-Laguë 方法的应用进行比较分析,凸显了该方法的优势。
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引用次数: 0
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Public Choice
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