首页 > 最新文献

Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

英文 中文
Risky firms and fragile banks: implications for macroprudential policy 高风险公司和脆弱银行:对宏观审慎政策的启示
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103451
Tommaso Gasparini , Vivien Lewis , Stéphane Moyen , Stefania Villa
Increases in firm default risk raise the default probability of banks while decreasing output and prices in US data. To rationalize the empirical evidence, we analyze firm risk shocks in a New Keynesian model where entrepreneurs and banks engage in a loan contract and both are subject to default risk. Corporate defaults lead to losses on banks’ balance sheets. A highly leveraged banking sector exacerbates the contractionary effects of firm defaults. We estimate the parameters of the model by matching VAR impulse responses of firm and bank risk, output, prices and the policy rate to a range of shocks – firm risk, demand, technology and monetary policy. Our model performs well at replicating the observed dynamics, making it suitable for policy analysis. We show that high minimum capital requirements jointly implemented with a countercyclical capital buffer are effective in dampening the adverse consequences of firm risk shocks.
企业违约风险的增加提高了银行的违约概率,同时降低了美国数据中的产出和价格。为了使经验证据合理化,我们在企业家和银行参与贷款合同的新凯恩斯模型中分析了企业风险冲击,两者都面临违约风险。企业违约会导致银行资产负债表上的损失。高度杠杆化的银行业加剧了企业违约的收缩效应。我们通过将企业和银行风险、产出、价格和政策利率的VAR脉冲响应与一系列冲击(企业风险、需求、技术和货币政策)相匹配来估计模型的参数。我们的模型在复制观察到的动态方面表现良好,使其适合于政策分析。我们表明,高最低资本要求与逆周期资本缓冲共同实施,有效地抑制了企业风险冲击的不利后果。
{"title":"Risky firms and fragile banks: implications for macroprudential policy","authors":"Tommaso Gasparini ,&nbsp;Vivien Lewis ,&nbsp;Stéphane Moyen ,&nbsp;Stefania Villa","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increases in firm default risk raise the default probability of banks while decreasing output and prices in US data. To rationalize the empirical evidence, we analyze firm risk shocks in a New Keynesian model where entrepreneurs and banks engage in a loan contract and both are subject to default risk. Corporate defaults lead to losses on banks’ balance sheets. A highly leveraged banking sector exacerbates the contractionary effects of firm defaults. We estimate the parameters of the model by matching VAR impulse responses of firm and bank risk, output, prices and the policy rate to a range of shocks – firm risk, demand, technology and monetary policy. Our model performs well at replicating the observed dynamics, making it suitable for policy analysis. We show that high minimum capital requirements jointly implemented with a countercyclical capital buffer are effective in dampening the adverse consequences of firm risk shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103451"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Yes! uncovered interest parity does hold in the long run 是的!长期来看,未覆盖的利率平价确实成立
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103455
Richard T. Baillie , George Kapetanios , Kun Ho Kim
There is clear evidence from many previous studies that UIP does not hold with monthly data. However, a recent study by Baillie, Diebold, Kapetanios, Kim and Mora (2025) advocated the “Durbin" regression approach to modeling time series regressions. This paper extends the application of that approach and finds strong evidence that information contained in lagged spot and forward exchange rates indicates that UIP is valid over long horizons. This evidence is based on heavily traded 30 day forward markets and avoids dealing with long term bonds and HAC robust standard errors. The evidence is important in confirming the validity of the long-run international Fisher condition, which is a vital cornerstone of international finance.
许多先前的研究都有明确的证据表明,UIP并不适用于月度数据。然而,Baillie, Diebold, Kapetanios, Kim和Mora(2025)最近的一项研究主张使用“Durbin”回归方法来建模时间序列回归。本文扩展了该方法的应用,并发现了强有力的证据,即滞后的现货和远期汇率中包含的信息表明,UIP在长期范围内是有效的。这一证据是基于交易量很大的30天远期市场,并避免了处理长期债券和HAC稳健的标准误差。这些证据对于确认长期国际费雪条件的有效性具有重要意义,而费雪条件是国际金融的重要基石。
{"title":"Yes! uncovered interest parity does hold in the long run","authors":"Richard T. Baillie ,&nbsp;George Kapetanios ,&nbsp;Kun Ho Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103455","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is clear evidence from many previous studies that UIP does not hold with monthly data. However, a recent study by Baillie, Diebold, Kapetanios, Kim and Mora (2025) advocated the “Durbin\" regression approach to modeling time series regressions. This paper extends the application of that approach and finds strong evidence that information contained in lagged spot and forward exchange rates indicates that UIP is valid over long horizons. This evidence is based on heavily traded 30 day forward markets and avoids dealing with long term bonds and HAC robust standard errors. The evidence is important in confirming the validity of the long-run international Fisher condition, which is a vital cornerstone of international finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103455"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global monetary policy spillovers: conference summary 全球货币政策溢出效应:会议摘要
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103454
Matthieu Bussière , Guillaume Horny , Mark M. Spiegel
Monetary policy operates through several channels, including through the external sector. As a result, domestic monetary policy decisions may have significant global spillover effects, with far reaching macroeconomic and financial stability considerations. This article outlines key lessons from the papers presented during the conference.
货币政策通过多种渠道发挥作用,包括通过外部部门。因此,国内货币政策决定可能具有重大的全球溢出效应,具有深远的宏观经济和金融稳定考虑。本文概述了会议期间提交的论文的主要经验教训。
{"title":"Global monetary policy spillovers: conference summary","authors":"Matthieu Bussière ,&nbsp;Guillaume Horny ,&nbsp;Mark M. Spiegel","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103454","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monetary policy operates through several channels, including through the external sector. As a result, domestic monetary policy decisions may have significant global spillover effects, with far reaching macroeconomic and financial stability considerations. This article outlines key lessons from the papers presented during the conference.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103454"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign exchange intervention and financial stability 外汇干预与金融稳定
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103439
Pierre-Richard Agénor , Timothy P. Jackson , Luiz A. Pereira da Silva
The effects of sterilized intervention are studied in a model with financial frictions. The central bank operates a managed float and issues sterilization bonds. In contrast with most of the existing literature, these bonds are held only by banks, and are imperfect substitutes for loans. The model is parameterized and used to study optimal policy responses to capital inflows associated with a transitory shock to world interest rates. The results show that sterilized intervention can be expansionary due to a bank portfolio channel and may exacerbate risks to financial stability. Full sterilization is optimal only when that channel is absent. The optimal degree of intervention is more aggressive when the central bank can choose simultaneously the degree of sterilization; in that sense, and conditional on intervention taking place, the instruments are complements. When the central bank’s objective function also accounts for the implicit cost of sterilization, and concerns with that cost are sufficiently high, intervention and sterilization can be substitutes—independently of whether exchange rate and financial stability considerations also matter for policymakers.
在一个有金融摩擦的模型中研究了消毒干预的效果。央行实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,并发行冲销债券。与大多数现有文献不同的是,这些债券仅由银行持有,是贷款的不完美替代品。该模型被参数化,并用于研究与全球利率暂时冲击相关的资本流入的最佳政策反应。结果表明,由于银行投资组合渠道的存在,冲销干预可能具有扩张性,并可能加剧金融稳定风险。只有当该通道不存在时,完全灭菌才是最佳的。当央行可以同时选择冲销程度时,最优干预程度更为激进;从这个意义上说,并以进行干预为条件,这些工具是互补的。当央行的目标函数也考虑了冲销的隐性成本,并且对该成本的担忧足够高时,干预和冲销就可以成为替代品——独立于汇率和金融稳定考虑是否对政策制定者也很重要。
{"title":"Foreign exchange intervention and financial stability","authors":"Pierre-Richard Agénor ,&nbsp;Timothy P. Jackson ,&nbsp;Luiz A. Pereira da Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103439","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103439","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of sterilized intervention are studied in a model with financial frictions. The central bank operates a managed float and issues sterilization bonds. In contrast with most of the existing literature, these bonds are held only by banks, and are imperfect substitutes for loans. The model is parameterized and used to study optimal policy responses to capital inflows associated with a transitory shock to world interest rates. The results show that sterilized intervention can be expansionary due to a <em>bank portfolio channel</em> and may exacerbate risks to financial stability. Full sterilization is optimal only when that channel is absent. The optimal degree of intervention is more aggressive when the central bank can choose simultaneously the degree of sterilization; in that sense, and conditional on intervention taking place, the instruments are complements. When the central bank’s objective function also accounts for the implicit cost of sterilization, and concerns with that cost are sufficiently high, intervention and sterilization can be substitutes—independently of whether exchange rate and financial stability considerations also matter for policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103439"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145425172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The path to currency internationalization: Insights from the Chinese renminbi 货币国际化之路:来自中国人民币的洞察
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103449
Minkyu Son
What matters for a currency to gain an international status? To explore this question, we examine the evolving role of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) in trade invoicing over 2003–2021 and the factors contributing to its heterogeneity using detailed trade data for Korea, China’s largest trading partner. China’s policy reform in 2009, permitting cross-border RMB settlement, boosted RMB invoicing in Korean exports particularly to China, but the US dollar’s existing dominance in trade with China impeded the expansion of RMB. Our study also finds that opening a direct FX market for RMB in 2014 further stimulated RMB usage in exports to non-Chinese destinations. This effect was more pronounced in destination countries with close trade ties or currency swap lines with China, and in exporting industries using more RMB-denominated inputs. These findings highlight the complementarity between a country’s economic fundamentals and government policies in internationalizing its currency.
一种货币获得国际地位的关键是什么?为了探讨这个问题,我们使用中国最大的贸易伙伴韩国的详细贸易数据,研究了2003-2021年人民币在贸易发票中的演变作用,以及导致其异质性的因素。我们的研究还发现,2014年人民币直接外汇市场的开放进一步刺激了人民币对非中国目的地出口的使用。在与中国有密切贸易关系或货币互换额度的目的地国,以及使用更多人民币计价投入的出口行业,这种影响更为明显。这些发现突出了一个国家的经济基本面和政府在货币国际化方面的政策之间的互补性。
{"title":"The path to currency internationalization: Insights from the Chinese renminbi","authors":"Minkyu Son","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What matters for a currency to gain an international status? To explore this question, we examine the evolving role of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) in trade invoicing over 2003–2021 and the factors contributing to its heterogeneity using detailed trade data for Korea, China’s largest trading partner. China’s policy reform in 2009, permitting cross-border RMB settlement, boosted RMB invoicing in Korean exports particularly to China, but the US dollar’s existing dominance in trade with China impeded the expansion of RMB. Our study also finds that opening a direct FX market for RMB in 2014 further stimulated RMB usage in exports to non-Chinese destinations. This effect was more pronounced in destination countries with close trade ties or currency swap lines with China, and in exporting industries using more RMB-denominated inputs. These findings highlight the complementarity between a country’s economic fundamentals and government policies in internationalizing its currency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103449"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The risk and reward of investing 投资的风险和回报
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103453
Ronald Doeswijk, Laurens Swinkels
We examine the risks and rewards of investing by constructing a comprehensive market portfolio valued at $150 trillion in global assets and spanning 1970–2022 at a monthly frequency. The monthly frequency allows for a more accurate estimate of investment risks compared to previous studies. Although the Sharpe ratio of the global market portfolio is not much higher than that of equities, it is much more stable over time. In addition, the drawdowns of the global market portfolio are less deep and shorter. When the market portfolio is expressed in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, risks of investing appear larger.
我们通过构建一个价值150万亿美元的全球资产的综合市场投资组合,以每月的频率检查投资的风险和回报。与以前的研究相比,每月的频率可以更准确地估计投资风险。尽管全球市场投资组合的夏普比率并不比股票高多少,但随着时间的推移,它要稳定得多。此外,全球市场投资组合的下跌幅度较小,时间也较短。当市场投资组合以美元以外的货币表示时,投资风险似乎更大。
{"title":"The risk and reward of investing","authors":"Ronald Doeswijk,&nbsp;Laurens Swinkels","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103453","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103453","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the risks and rewards of investing by constructing a comprehensive market portfolio valued at $150 trillion in global assets and spanning 1970–2022 at a monthly frequency. The monthly frequency allows for a more accurate estimate of investment risks compared to previous studies. Although the Sharpe ratio of the global market portfolio is not much higher than that of equities, it is much more stable over time. In addition, the drawdowns of the global market portfolio are less deep and shorter. When the market portfolio is expressed in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, risks of investing appear larger.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103453"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145425215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The announcement effect on international currency choices: Theory and evidence 公告对国际货币选择的影响:理论与证据
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103450
Han Han , Tao Liu , Dong Lu
This paper examines the announcement effect of financial policies that aim to promote the international usage of a previously domestic currency. To this end, we propose an open-economy monetary search model with transaction costs and use it to analyze international currency choices. We examine not only steady state changes, but also the transition path between these states. The announcement effect on transition dynamics depends on various factors such as the degree of risk aversion, searching friction, and information structure. Our empirical estimation between 2010 and 2018 reveals a significant but asymmetric announcement effect of RMB swap lines (RSL). We find that RSL announcements increase the RMB share in a counterparty country’s import from China, but not its export to China. Finally, a calibrated model implies that RSL announcements decrease RMB’s transaction cost by 54.35 %.
本文考察了旨在促进本币国际使用的金融政策的公告效应。为此,我们提出了一个考虑交易成本的开放经济货币搜索模型,并用它来分析国际货币选择。我们不仅研究稳态变化,而且研究这些状态之间的过渡路径。公告对转移动态的影响取决于风险规避程度、搜索摩擦和信息结构等多种因素。2010 - 2018年的实证估计表明,人民币互换额度的公告效应显著但不对称。我们发现,RSL公告增加了交易对手国从中国进口的人民币份额,而不是对中国出口的人民币份额。最后,经过校正的模型表明,RSL公告使人民币交易成本降低了54.35%。
{"title":"The announcement effect on international currency choices: Theory and evidence","authors":"Han Han ,&nbsp;Tao Liu ,&nbsp;Dong Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103450","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the announcement effect of financial policies that aim to promote the international usage of a previously domestic currency. To this end, we propose an open-economy monetary search model with transaction costs and use it to analyze international currency choices. We examine not only steady state changes, but also the transition path between these states. The announcement effect on transition dynamics depends on various factors such as the degree of risk aversion, searching friction, and information structure. Our empirical estimation between 2010 and 2018 reveals a significant but asymmetric announcement effect of RMB swap lines (RSL). We find that RSL announcements increase the RMB share in a counterparty country’s import from China, but not its export to China. Finally, a calibrated model implies that RSL announcements decrease RMB’s transaction cost by 54.35 %.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103450"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145425171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Riding the rate wave: Interest rate and run risks in euro area banks during the 2022–2023 monetary cycle 乘着利率浪潮:2022-2023年货币周期期间欧元区银行的利率和运行风险
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103444
Jonathan Rice , Giulia Maria Guerrini
This paper examines how the ECB’s 2022–2023 interest rate hikes affected euro area banks’ economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Drawing on granular, confidential data for 139 banks, we estimate each bank’s economic net worth and find that unrealised losses on loans and bonds averaged around 30 % of equity. By September 2023, roughly half of these losses had been offset by gains from the deposit franchise and interest rate swaps. We develop a theoretical framework linking banks’ economic net worth and deposit rate setting to depositor behaviour and run incentives. We demonstrate that banks with larger unrealised losses raised their deposit rates by less–a pattern we interpret as banks leveraging a more valuable deposit franchise to fund longer–duration assets. Although euro area banks as a whole avoided widespread runs, several institutions nonetheless carried substantial mark–to–market losses, suggesting latent fragilities.
本文研究了欧洲央行2022-2023年加息对欧元区银行经济净值和存款挤兑脆弱性的影响。根据139家银行的详细机密数据,我们估计了每家银行的经济净值,发现贷款和债券的未实现损失平均约为股本的30%。到2023年9月,这些损失中约有一半被存款特许经营权和利率掉期的收益所抵消。我们开发了一个理论框架,将银行的经济净值和存款利率设定与存款人行为和运行激励联系起来。我们证明,未实现亏损较大的银行提高存款利率的幅度较小——我们将这种模式解释为银行利用更有价值的存款特许经营权来为长期资产提供资金。尽管欧元区银行整体上避免了大规模挤兑,但仍有几家机构蒙受了大量按市值计价的损失,这表明它们存在潜在的脆弱性。
{"title":"Riding the rate wave: Interest rate and run risks in euro area banks during the 2022–2023 monetary cycle","authors":"Jonathan Rice ,&nbsp;Giulia Maria Guerrini","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the ECB’s 2022–2023 interest rate hikes affected euro area banks’ economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Drawing on granular, confidential data for 139 banks, we estimate each bank’s economic net worth and find that unrealised losses on loans and bonds averaged around 30 % of equity. By September 2023, roughly half of these losses had been offset by gains from the deposit franchise and interest rate swaps. We develop a theoretical framework linking banks’ economic net worth and deposit rate setting to depositor behaviour and run incentives. We demonstrate that banks with larger unrealised losses raised their deposit rates by less–a pattern we interpret as banks leveraging a more valuable deposit franchise to fund longer–duration assets. Although euro area banks as a whole avoided widespread runs, several institutions nonetheless carried substantial mark–to–market losses, suggesting latent fragilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103444"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What happens to emerging market economies when US yields go up? 当美国国债收益率上升时,新兴市场经济体会发生什么?
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103442
Julián Caballero, Christian Upper
This paper explores under what circumstances increases in US Treasury yields spill over into declines in emerging market economy (EME) asset prices. We identify episodes of sharp increases in US 10-year Treasury yields and explore under which conditions these are associated with reductions in EME local currency yields, exchange rates and equity prices. We find that rising US yields are more likely to be associated with adverse outcomes in emerging markets when they reflect (i) a rise in the US term premium and (ii) dollar appreciation. The effects of these variables are highly non-linear economically significant and robust to a variety of sensitivity checks. Of EME fundamentals, rising EME inflation expectations, a current account deficit and greater exchange rate flexibility seem to be associated with worse EME outcomes, although these results do not hold in all specifications.
本文探讨了在何种情况下,美国国债收益率的上升会导致新兴市场经济体(EME)资产价格的下跌。我们确定了美国10年期国债收益率大幅上升的时期,并探讨了在哪些条件下,这些时期与新兴市场本币收益率、汇率和股价的下降有关。我们发现,当美国国债收益率上升反映(1)美国期限溢价上升和(2)美元升值时,它更有可能与新兴市场的不利结果联系在一起。这些变量的影响在经济上是高度非线性的,并且对各种灵敏度检查具有鲁棒性。在EME基本面方面,不断上升的EME通胀预期、经常账户赤字和更大的汇率灵活性似乎与EME结果恶化有关,尽管这些结果并不适用于所有规范。
{"title":"What happens to emerging market economies when US yields go up?","authors":"Julián Caballero,&nbsp;Christian Upper","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103442","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103442","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores under what circumstances increases in US Treasury yields spill over into declines in emerging market economy (EME) asset prices. We identify episodes of sharp increases in US 10-year Treasury yields and explore under which conditions these are associated with reductions in EME local currency yields, exchange rates and equity prices. We find that rising US yields are more likely to be associated with adverse outcomes in emerging markets when they reflect (i) a rise in the US term premium and (ii) dollar appreciation. The effects of these variables are highly non-linear economically significant and robust to a variety of sensitivity checks. Of EME fundamentals, rising EME inflation expectations, a current account deficit and greater exchange rate flexibility seem to be associated with worse EME outcomes, although these results do not hold in all specifications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103442"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145365670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Life cycle performance of hedge fund managers 对冲基金经理的生命周期绩效
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103447
Rose Ruoxi Huang , Elaine Yongshi Jie , Yue Ma
We document that hedge fund managers exhibit a hump-shaped relationship between their work experience and performance. This observed pattern reflects the dynamic interplay between two contrasting effects of career concerns and incentives channel. In the early years of their careers, fund managers face significant career concerns, which exert high pressure to induce effort in their jobs. Meanwhile, managers also have a strong incentive to build their expertise, leading to better performance. However, as their performance steadily ascends, the rate of improvement decelerates. This is because their career concerns start to ebb away, leading to a cutback on effort that offsets their incentive effects. Consequently, after reaching its peak around the five-year mark, their performance tends to deteriorate afterwards. Additionally, we find that manager’s investment skill contributes positively to fund performance and female managers or master degree holders perform better than their counterparts. Fund size links to performance through diminishing returns to scale. Smaller funds exhibit better performance, whereas larger funds attract better managers. Managers in financial centers outperform their peers in non-financial centers due to both sorting and learning effects. Managers with a prior fund-related background perform better than their peers without it. However, the outperformance of both managers in financial centers and those with fund-related background diminishes in the long run. In a natural experiment setting, we show the stock market crash had a permanent negative impact on the performance of managers. Our findings are robust across varying numbers of manager-fund overlaps, investment strategies, and alternative performance measures.
我们证明,对冲基金经理的工作经验和业绩之间呈现驼峰形关系。这种观察到的模式反映了职业关注和激励渠道两种截然不同的影响之间的动态相互作用。在他们职业生涯的早期,基金经理面临着重大的职业问题,这给他们的工作施加了很大的压力。与此同时,管理者也有很强的动力去积累自己的专业知识,从而取得更好的业绩。然而,随着它们的性能稳步上升,改进的速度会减慢。这是因为他们对事业的担忧开始消退,导致努力的减少,抵消了他们的激励效应。因此,在达到5年左右的峰值后,它们的表现往往会随之恶化。此外,我们发现基金经理的投资技能对基金绩效有积极的贡献,女性经理或硕士学位持有人的表现优于其同行。基金规模通过规模收益递减与业绩挂钩。规模较小的基金表现更好,而规模较大的基金则吸引了更好的基金经理。金融中心的管理者表现优于非金融中心的管理者,主要是由于分类效应和学习效应。之前有基金相关背景的经理比没有背景的同行表现得更好。然而,从长期来看,金融中心的经理和那些有基金相关背景的经理的优异表现都会减弱。在一个自然实验环境中,我们证明了股市崩盘对管理者的绩效有永久性的负面影响。我们的研究结果在不同数量的基金经理重叠、投资策略和另类业绩衡量指标中都是稳健的。
{"title":"Life cycle performance of hedge fund managers","authors":"Rose Ruoxi Huang ,&nbsp;Elaine Yongshi Jie ,&nbsp;Yue Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that hedge fund managers exhibit a hump-shaped relationship between their work experience and performance. This observed pattern reflects the dynamic interplay between two contrasting effects of career concerns and incentives channel. In the early years of their careers, fund managers face significant career concerns, which exert high pressure to induce effort in their jobs. Meanwhile, managers also have a strong incentive to build their expertise, leading to better performance. However, as their performance steadily ascends, the rate of improvement decelerates. This is because their career concerns start to ebb away, leading to a cutback on effort that offsets their incentive effects. Consequently, after reaching its peak around the five-year mark, their performance tends to deteriorate afterwards. Additionally, we find that manager’s investment skill contributes positively to fund performance and female managers or master degree holders perform better than their counterparts. Fund size links to performance through diminishing returns to scale. Smaller funds exhibit better performance, whereas larger funds attract better managers. Managers in financial centers outperform their peers in non-financial centers due to both sorting and learning effects. Managers with a prior fund-related background perform better than their peers without it. However, the outperformance of both managers in financial centers and those with fund-related background diminishes in the long run. In a natural experiment setting, we show the stock market crash had a permanent negative impact on the performance of managers. Our findings are robust across varying numbers of manager-fund overlaps, investment strategies, and alternative performance measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103447"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145335224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of International Money and Finance
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1