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Systemic risk in global FX markets: Measurement and determinants 全球外汇市场的系统性风险:衡量和决定因素
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103435
Yanting Jiang , Juan Lin , Yanghan Chen
This paper examines systemic risk in global foreign exchange (FX) markets using a dynamic skew-t factor copula model for 36 currencies from 2015 to 2024. We document significant time variation in systemic risk with pronounced spikes during major global disruptions. Exchange rate regimes significantly influence currency vulnerability, with floating and intermediate regimes providing better insulation against systemic risk than fixed regimes. We identify an inverted U-shaped relationship between global economic integration and currency vulnerability: initial trade and FDI integration increases vulnerability until reaching critical thresholds, beyond which deeper integration reduces vulnerability. These findings have important implications for systemic risk management in increasingly interconnected FX markets.
本文使用动态倾斜-t因子联结模型对2015年至2024年36种货币的全球外汇市场系统性风险进行了研究。我们记录了系统性风险的显著时间变化,在重大全球中断期间出现明显的峰值。汇率制度显著影响货币脆弱性,与固定汇率制度相比,浮动汇率制度和中间汇率制度能更好地防范系统性风险。我们发现全球经济一体化与货币脆弱性之间存在倒u型关系:在达到临界阈值之前,最初的贸易和外国直接投资一体化会增加脆弱性,超过临界阈值后,进一步的一体化会降低脆弱性。这些发现对日益相互关联的外汇市场的系统性风险管理具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of financial stress shocks on commodity prices 金融压力冲击对大宗商品价格的影响
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103436
Kai Wang , Cheng Zhang , Zhiping Zhou
This paper examines the impact of financial distress on commodity returns over the 1990–2023 period. Using Markov switching vector autoregressive models to identify three regimes, we find that an unexpected increase in financial distress is negatively associated with commodity returns. The analysis of impulse response functions suggests that the impact of financial stress shocks on commodity returns is approximately three times greater during the crisis regime, which includes the subprime mortgage crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, than normal times. Further examination of specific commodities, including foodstuffs, metals, and raw industrials, demonstrates that heightened financial stress also leads to a larger decline in commodity returns in the crisis regime. We also show that the impact is stronger for metals than foodstuffs and raw industrials.
本文考察了1990-2023年期间金融危机对商品回报的影响。使用马尔可夫切换向量自回归模型来识别三种制度,我们发现财务困境的意外增加与商品收益呈负相关。脉冲响应函数的分析表明,在包括次贷危机和COVID-19大流行在内的危机机制中,金融压力冲击对商品回报的影响大约是正常时期的三倍。对特定商品(包括食品、金属和工业原料)的进一步研究表明,金融压力的加剧也导致了危机时期商品回报的更大下降。我们还表明,对金属的影响比食品和原材料工业更大。
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引用次数: 0
Risk-on/risk-off: Measuring shifts in investor risk bearing capacity 风险开启/风险关闭:衡量投资者风险承受能力的变化
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103438
Anusha Chari , Karlye Dilts Stedman , Christian Lundblad
This paper defines risk-on/risk-off (RORO), an elusive terminology in pervasive use, as high frequency variation in global investor risk taking behavior. Our daily RORO index captures time-varying investor risk appetite across multiple dimensions: advanced economy credit risk, equity market volatility, funding conditions, and currency dynamics. The index exhibits risk-off skewness and fat tails, suggesting its amplifying potential for extreme, destabilizing events. Compared to other measures, our index reflects the diverse provenance of investor behavior (and therefore of risk) in a parsimonious form. Practical applications of the RORO index highlight its valuable role in understanding international portfolio reallocation and return predictability.
本文将风险开启/风险关闭(RORO)定义为全球投资者风险行为的高频变化,这是一个普遍使用的难以捉摸的术语。我们的每日RORO指数从多个维度捕捉投资者随时间变化的风险偏好:发达经济体信用风险、股市波动、融资条件和货币动态。该指数显示出规避风险的偏态和肥尾,表明极端、不稳定事件发生的可能性正在扩大。与其他措施相比,我们的指数以一种简洁的形式反映了投资者行为(以及风险)的多样化来源。RORO指数的实际应用突出了它在理解国际投资组合再配置和收益可预测性方面的重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Real exchange rate, financial constraints and product innovation: Evidence from China 实际汇率、金融约束与产品创新:来自中国的证据
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103437
Liang Fu , Chun-Yu Ho , Xiao Wei , Xiaoli Zhang
This paper examines how real exchange rate (RER) movements affects product innovation using a panel dataset of Chinese manufacturing firms. We construct a firm-specific effective RER to reflect each firm’s unique exposure to exchange rate shocks based on its composition of trading partners. Product innovation is measured by the share of new product sales in total sales (NPS), an indicator that reflects the successful commercialization of product innovation. Our main results report that RER appreciation reduces NPS. We further hypothesize that decreased profits from diminished exports, induced by RER appreciation, tighten financial constraints on developing new products. Empirical evidence supports this hypothesis: the negative effect of RER appreciation on NPS is more pronounced for financially constrained firms, specifically those with private ownerships, less fixed assets, a lower current ratio, a lower net liquidity ratio, or those located in cities with lower levels of financial development.
本文利用中国制造业企业的面板数据集,考察了实际汇率变动对产品创新的影响。我们构建了一个企业特定的有效RER,以反映每个企业基于其贸易伙伴组成的独特的汇率冲击风险。产品创新是通过新产品销售额占总销售额的比重(NPS)来衡量的,这是反映产品创新成功商业化的指标。我们的主要结果报告了RER升值降低了NPS。我们进一步假设,由于RER升值导致的出口利润减少,对开发新产品的资金限制更加严格。经验证据支持这一假设:对于资金受限的企业,特别是那些私有企业、固定资产较少、流动比率较低、净流动性比率较低的企业,或者那些位于金融发展水平较低城市的企业,RER升值对NPS的负面影响更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign monetary policy and domestic inflation in emerging markets 新兴市场的外汇政策与国内通胀
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103434
Marco Flaccadoro, Valerio Nispi Landi
We set up a New Keynesian model for a small open economy with dominant currency pricing, to study the response of domestic inflation to an increase in the US interest rate. We show that the sign of the inflation response crucially depends on the monetary policy regime: after a US monetary tightening, inflation decreases in countries with an exchange rate peg; it increases in countries with a flexible exchange rate, unless the country follows a strict inflation targeting: in this latter case, inflation barely moves. These results are consistent with empirical evidence in a sample of emerging economies, using local projection methods.
我们建立了一个以货币定价为主导的小型开放经济体的新凯恩斯模型,以研究国内通胀对美国利率上升的反应。我们表明,通胀反应的迹象在很大程度上取决于货币政策机制:在美国收紧货币政策后,实行钉住汇率制的国家通胀下降;在实行灵活汇率的国家,通货膨胀率会上升,除非该国遵循严格的通胀目标:在后一种情况下,通胀几乎没有变化。这些结果与使用当地预测方法的新兴经济体样本的经验证据一致。
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引用次数: 0
Hedging sanctions risk: Cryptocurrency in central bank reserves 对冲制裁风险:央行储备中的加密货币
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103433
Matthew Ferranti
Central banks may shift their international reserve holdings in order to protect themselves ex-ante against the risk of financial sanctions by fiat reserve currency issuers. For example, from 2016 to 2021, countries facing a higher risk of US sanctions increased the gold share of their reserves more than countries facing a lower risk of US sanctions. This paper explores the potential for Bitcoin to serve as an alternative hedging asset. I describe a dynamic Bayesian copula model to simulate the joint returns of Bitcoin and other reserve assets under a wide range of plausible sanctions probabilities, quantifying the extent to which varying levels of sanctions risk increase optimal gold, renminbi, and Bitcoin allocations. I conclude that sanctions risk may diminish the appeal of US Treasuries, propel broader diversification in central bank reserves, and bolster the long-run fundamental value of both cryptocurrency and gold.
中央银行可能会转移其国际储备,以事先保护自己免受法定储备货币发行国的金融制裁风险。例如,从2016年到2021年,面临美国制裁风险较高的国家比面临美国制裁风险较低的国家增加了其储备中的黄金份额。本文探讨了比特币作为另类对冲资产的潜力。我描述了一个动态贝叶斯联结模型来模拟比特币和其他储备资产在各种可能的制裁概率下的联合回报,量化不同制裁风险水平增加黄金、人民币和比特币最优配置的程度。我的结论是,制裁风险可能会削弱美国国债的吸引力,推动央行储备更广泛的多元化,并支撑加密货币和黄金的长期基本价值。
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引用次数: 0
A primer on bitcoin cross-border flows: Measurement and drivers 比特币跨境流动入门:衡量和驱动因素
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103424
Eugenio Cerutti, Jiaqian Chen, Martina Hengge
The rapid growth of crypto assets raises important questions about their cross-border usage. To gain a better understanding of cross-border Bitcoin flows, we use raw data covering both on-chain (on the Bitcoin blockchain) and off-chain (outside the Bitcoin blockchain) transactions globally. We provide a detailed description of available methodologies and datasets, and discuss the crucial assumptions behind the quantification of cross-border flows. We then present novel stylized facts about Bitcoin cross-border flows and study their global and domestic drivers. Bitcoin cross-border flows respond differently than capital flows to traditional drivers of capital flows, and differences appear between on-chain and off-chain Bitcoin cross-border flows. Off-chain cross-border flows seem correlated with incentives to avoid capital flow restrictions.
加密资产的快速增长引发了有关其跨境使用的重要问题。为了更好地了解比特币的跨境流动,我们使用了覆盖全球链上(在比特币区块链上)和链下(在比特币区块链之外)交易的原始数据。我们提供了可用方法和数据集的详细描述,并讨论了跨境流动量化背后的关键假设。然后,我们提出了有关比特币跨境流动的新颖风格化事实,并研究了其全球和国内驱动因素。比特币跨境流动对传统资本流动驱动因素的反应不同于资本流动,链上和链下比特币跨境流动也存在差异。链下跨境流动似乎与避免资本流动限制的动机相关。
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引用次数: 0
How does central bank independence influence the relationship between inflation, income inequality and poverty? 央行独立性如何影响通货膨胀、收入不平等和贫困之间的关系?
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103423
Bruno Pires Tiberto
This study employs panel data analysis for 46 countries from 1980 to 2022 to investigate the impact of inflation on income inequality and poverty, highlighting the mitigating role of central bank independence. Using a comprehensive index of de jure central bank independence, the study assesses its influence on five measures of income inequality, four measures of poverty, and income deciles. The findings suggest structural factors are the main drivers of income inequality and poverty, rather than central bank independence. However, while inflation worsens these issues, central bank independence can counteract the adverse effects of inflation. Moreover, the evidence indicates greater central bank independence disproportionately benefits low-income households at the expense of high-income households, with these redistributive effects being more pronounced at higher levels of independence. In conclusion, central bank independence is pivotal in alleviating the negative impacts of inflationary shocks on income inequality and poverty, thereby promoting social and economic justice.
本研究采用1980年至2022年46个国家的面板数据分析,考察通货膨胀对收入不平等和贫困的影响,突出了央行独立性的缓解作用。该研究利用法定央行独立性的综合指数,评估了央行对五项收入不平等指标、四项贫困指标和收入十分位数的影响。研究结果表明,结构性因素是收入不平等和贫困的主要驱动因素,而不是央行的独立性。然而,尽管通货膨胀加剧了这些问题,但央行的独立性可以抵消通货膨胀的不利影响。此外,有证据表明,央行独立性越高,低收入家庭受益越大,而高收入家庭则越少,这种再分配效应在独立性越高时更为明显。总之,中央银行的独立性对于减轻通货膨胀冲击对收入不平等和贫困的负面影响,从而促进社会和经济公正至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies 比特币交易与-à-vis法定货币的全球和本地驱动因素
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103405
Paola Di Casola , Maurizio Michael Habib , David Tercero-Lucas
We analyse global and local drivers of Bitcoin transactions against 45 fiat currencies in the largest peer-to-peer crypto exchanges. Global factors, such as momentum in the crypto-asset market or financial market volatility, do matter for Bitcoin trading. There is evidence of a global crypto cycle driven by speculative motives. Trading across currencies and users around the world moves in tandem with fluctuations in the Bitcoin price. Crypto shocks and global risk shocks are behind this cyclical comovement. Crucially, Bitcoin seems to also offer utility benefits in emerging and developing economies, since trading increases after idiosyncratic, currency-specific shocks that depreciate the currency. Local projections analysis and case studies confirm this important link between exchange rate instability and Bitcoin transactions.
我们分析了在最大的点对点加密交易所中,比特币交易与45种法定货币的全球和本地驱动因素。全球因素,如加密资产市场的势头或金融市场的波动,对比特币交易确实很重要。有证据表明,全球加密周期是由投机动机驱动的。全球货币和用户之间的交易与比特币价格的波动同步进行。加密货币冲击和全球风险冲击是这种周期性波动的背后原因。至关重要的是,比特币在新兴和发展中经济体似乎也提供了效用效益,因为在特殊的、特定于货币的冲击导致货币贬值后,比特币的交易量会增加。本地预测分析和案例研究证实了汇率不稳定与比特币交易之间的重要联系。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on markups – firm-level evidence for Switzerland 汇率波动对加价的影响——瑞士企业层面的证据
IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103422
Elizabeth Steiner, Yannic Stucki
This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on markups. Firm-level markups are estimated for a comprehensive panel of Swiss manufacturing firms for the period 2012–2017 using a production-function approach. The pass-through of the exchange rate is then estimated using an event–study design exploiting the large, sudden, and persistent appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro in January 2015. The results show that following an appreciation, Swiss manufacturing firms adjust their markups very heterogeneously. Large firms, especially highly profitable large exporters, substantially decrease their markups. Owing to their sheer size, large firms shape the aggregate response. In contrast, the average firm does not respond significantly. This suggests that smaller firms, which are in the majority, are either unable or unwilling to absorb exchange rate movements by adjusting their markups.
本文估计了汇率波动对加价的影响。使用生产函数方法对2012-2017年期间瑞士制造企业的综合面板进行了公司层面的加价估计。然后使用事件研究设计,利用2015年1月瑞士法郎对欧元的大幅、突然和持续升值来估计汇率的传递。结果表明,在人民币升值后,瑞士制造企业调整其加价幅度的差异很大。大公司,尤其是利润丰厚的大型出口商,大幅降低了利润率。由于其庞大的规模,大公司塑造了总体反应。相比之下,一般公司没有显著的反应。这表明,占多数的小公司要么不能,要么不愿通过调整加价来消化汇率变动。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Money and Finance
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