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Green innovation through trade: The impact of European Union emissions trading scheme on Chinese exporters 通过贸易实现绿色创新:欧盟排放交易计划对中国出口商的影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103215
Yinan Liu , Peiyao Lv , Hao Zhao
This paper investigates the international diffusion of green innovation through trade, focusing on the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on Chinese exporters. Using a difference-in-differences approach with firm-level data from 2000 to 2013, we find that the EU ETS significantly increased green patent applications among China-to-EU exporters. The likelihood of green patent applications increased by 0.2%, effectively doubling the pre-policy rate. Our mechanism analyses indicate that the increase is driven by the learning-by-exporting effect, rather than market size effects or the anticipation of regulatory and market condition changes. These results highlight the role of international trade in disseminating green technology and demonstrate how environmental regulations can foster innovation across global markets.
本文以欧盟排放交易计划(EU ETS)对中国出口商的影响为重点,研究了绿色创新通过贸易在国际上的传播。我们利用 2000 年至 2013 年的企业层面数据,采用差分法研究发现,欧盟排放交易计划显著增加了中国对欧盟出口企业的绿色专利申请。绿色专利申请的可能性增加了 0.2%,实际上是政策实施前的两倍。我们的机制分析表明,这一增长是由出口学习效应驱动的,而不是市场规模效应或对监管和市场条件变化的预期。这些结果凸显了国际贸易在传播绿色技术方面的作用,并证明了环境法规如何促进全球市场的创新。
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引用次数: 0
Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates 债券供应预期和利率的期限结构
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103217
M. Billio , F. Busetto , A. Dufour , S. Varotto
This paper investigates the influence of forward-looking government bond supply information on changes in the term structure of interest rates. While traditional arbitrage-free models suggest that bond supply should not impact bond yields, models accounting for preferred-habitat investors and imperfect asset substitutability raise this possibility. By analysing debt supply expectations derived from Germany's Treasury press releases, we find that news about expected bond supply affects bond yields, supporting the notion that supply expectations influence current interest rates. Our study also extends macro-finance models, highlighting the significant role of supply expectations in term structure dynamics. Additionally, we provide insights into the puzzle of German government bond yields falling below the ECB deposit rate.
本文研究了前瞻性政府债券供应信息对利率期限结构变化的影响。虽然传统的无套利模型表明债券供应不应该影响债券收益率,但考虑到优先居住地投资者和不完全资产替代性的模型却提出了这种可能性。通过分析从德国财政部新闻稿中得出的债务供应预期,我们发现有关债券供应预期的新闻会影响债券收益率,从而支持了供应预期会影响当前利率的观点。我们的研究还扩展了宏观金融模型,强调了供给预期在期限结构动态中的重要作用。此外,我们还揭示了德国政府债券收益率低于欧洲央行存款利率的谜团。
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引用次数: 0
Economic policy uncertainty in OFDI host countries and the cross-section of stock returns 对外直接投资东道国经济政策的不确定性与股票收益的横截面
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103214
Ya Peng, Xueyong Zhang
This study examines the association between foreign economic policy uncertainty (FEPU) originating from the host countries (regions) of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and expected stock returns. We construct a novel variable, FEPU, based on the year-end OFDI amounts of Chinese listed multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the EPU indices of 23 host countries (regions). Our findings reveal that stocks with higher FEPU outperform those with lower FEPU by 4.96 % annually. Beyond predicting short-term expected returns, FEPU also exhibits strong positive predictive power for firms’ long-term cumulative returns. Additionally, through mechanism tests, we demonstrate that this excess return is attributable to compensation for risk premium. Unlike the majority of studies that focus solely on the impact of EPU within a single country or region, we examine the cross-border implications of EPU. This approach offers an innovative perspective on the pricing of MNEs’ stocks by characterizing the exposure to external EPU.
本研究探讨了源自对外直接投资(OFDI)东道国(地区)的外国经济政策不确定性(FEPU)与股票预期收益之间的关联。我们根据中国上市跨国企业的年末对外直接投资额和 23 个东道国(地区)的 EPU 指数构建了一个新变量 FEPU。我们的研究结果表明,FEPU 较高的股票每年比 FEPU 较低的股票高出 4.96%。除了预测短期预期回报外,FEPU 还对企业的长期累计回报具有很强的正向预测能力。此外,通过机制测试,我们证明这种超额收益可归因于风险溢价补偿。与大多数只关注 EPU 对单一国家或地区影响的研究不同,我们研究了 EPU 的跨境影响。这种方法通过描述外部 EPU 的影响,为跨国企业股票定价提供了一个创新视角。
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引用次数: 0
Import licenses, intermediaries, and price pass-through: Evidence from the Chinese steel market 进口许可证、中间商和价格传递:来自中国钢铁市场的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103209
Puyang Sun , Kewei Ma , Li Su
This study examines the impact of abolishing the exclusive license of importing iron ore on price pass-through in the Chinese steel market. We model the intermediate traders' role in alleviating market uncertainties, which have a critical impact on price pass-through. In addition, we leverage the monthly iron ore import prices and steel market prices in Chinese cities, and employ a difference-in-difference framework to empirically analyze the impact of the import license reform on price pass-through. We show that the reform on average reduces the price pass-through by 15 percentage points, which is around 3 points further in treated cities. Our findings imply the price pass-through hinges on market uncertainties, and the reform, although eliminating double marginalization, makes downstream steel producers have to face market uncertainties directly, and results in a lower price pass-through.
本研究探讨了取消铁矿石进口排他性许可对中国钢铁市场价格传递的影响。我们模拟了中间贸易商在缓解市场不确定性方面的作用,这种作用对价格传导有着至关重要的影响。此外,我们利用中国城市的月度铁矿石进口价格和钢材市场价格,采用差分法框架实证分析了进口许可证改革对价格传递的影响。我们的研究表明,改革平均降低了 15 个百分点的价格转嫁率,而在受影响的城市中则进一步降低了约 3 个百分点。我们的研究结果表明,价格转嫁取决于市场的不确定性,而改革虽然消除了双重边际化,却使下游钢铁生产商不得不直接面对市场的不确定性,从而导致价格转嫁的降低。
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引用次数: 0
Did interest rate guidance in emerging markets work? 新兴市场的利率指导起作用了吗?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103212
Julián Caballero , Blaise Gadanecz
Central banks in emerging market economies experimented with explicit interest rate guidance during 2020-2021. We explore the effectiveness of this policy. Despite some heterogeneity, interest rate guidance generally provided additional monetary stimulus, as reflected in lower medium-term yields and lower term spreads. The magnitude of the reduction in 10-year yields ranged between five and twenty basis points. In the immediate aftermath of the guidance, we do not observe a systematic negative market reaction – such as de-anchoring of inflation expectations, currency depreciation pressures, or increased sovereign credit risk – that would be associated with a loss of central bank credibility or with concerns about fiscal dominance.
新兴市场经济体的中央银行在 2020-2021 年期间尝试了明确的利率指导。我们探讨了这一政策的有效性。尽管存在一些差异,但利率指导普遍提供了额外的货币刺激,这体现在中期收益率下降和期限利差缩小上。10 年期收益率的降幅在 5 到 20 个基点之间。在利率指导之后,我们没有观察到系统性的负面市场反应--如通胀预期去锚、货币贬值压力或主权信贷风险增加--这可能与中央银行信誉丧失或对财政主导地位的担忧有关。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous inflation expectations: A call for customized monetary policy communication? 异质通胀预期:定制化货币政策沟通的呼声?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103211
J.P. Medina , Miguel Mello , Jorge Ponce
The extent to which firms differentiate their inflation expectations between one-year and two-year horizons is an important indicator of changes in inflation expectations. Within a monetary policy framework aimed at reducing the inflation rate toward the target band, firms that obtain information from the central bank are more likely to distinguish between these horizons and expect inflation to converge toward the target. Generally, decision-makers do not differentiate between horizons, but when they do, they are more likely to anticipate convergence. Conversely, external advisors often differentiate between horizons and are more likely to expect divergence. The heterogeneity in how inflation expectations are formed—depending on who within the firm sets these expectations, the information they use, and their use of aggregate inflation expectations data—suggests a need for customized monetary policy communication.
企业对一年期和两年期通胀预期的区分程度是通胀预期变化的一个重要指标。在旨在将通胀率降至目标区间的货币政策框架内,从中央银行获得信息的企业更有可能区分这些期限,并预期通胀率向目标收敛。一般来说,决策者不会区分不同的区间,但当他们区分时,他们更有可能预期收敛。与此相反,外部顾问通常会区分不同的视角,并更有可能预期分歧。通胀预期形成方式的异质性--取决于公司内部由谁来设定这些预期、他们使用的信息以及他们对通胀预期总数据的使用--表明有必要进行定制化的货币政策沟通。
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引用次数: 0
Are R&D-intensive firms more resilient to trade shocks? Evidence from the U.S.–China trade war 研发密集型企业是否更能抵御贸易冲击?来自中美贸易战的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103208
Kenneth A. Kim , Hongjun Xie , Xiaojia Zheng
We study whether research and development (R&D)-intensive Chinese firms were more resilient during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war. Using an event study, we confirm that (unsurprisingly) Chinese exporting firms that were most affected by the new U.S. tariffs suffered larger valuation declines than other firms. However, among those most affected, those that were R&D intensive suffered significantly less severe declines. We also identify a channel that allowed R&D-intensive firms to better absorb the trade shock: their production efficiency improved amidst the trade war, due to enhanced operational efficiency and lower operating costs. Furthermore, in response to the trade disruptions, numerous R&D-intensive Chinese companies acquired U.S. firms.
我们研究了研究与开发(R&D)密集型中国企业在2018-2019年中美贸易战期间是否更具弹性。通过事件研究,我们证实(不出所料),受美国新关税影响最大的中国出口企业的估值跌幅大于其他企业。然而,在受影响最大的企业中,研发密集型企业的估值下降幅度要小得多。我们还发现了一个能让研发密集型企业更好地吸收贸易冲击的渠道:由于运营效率提高和运营成本降低,这些企业的生产效率在贸易战中得到提高。此外,为应对贸易中断,许多研发密集型中国企业收购了美国企业。
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引用次数: 0
Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations 高债务是否制约了货币政策?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103206
Luis Brandao-Marques , Marco Casiraghi , Gaston Gelos , Olamide Harrison , Gunes Kamber
This paper examines whether high public debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing the impact of public debt surprises on inflation expectations advanced- and emerging market economies. It finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The effects are stronger when initial debt levels are already high, when inflation levels are initially high, and when debt dollarization is significant. By contrast, debt surprises have only modest effects in countries with inflation targeting regimes. Increased debt levels may complicate the fight against inflation in emerging market economies with high and dollarized debt levels, and weaker monetary policy frameworks.
本文探讨了高额公共债务是否会对抑制通胀构成挑战。为此,本文评估了公共债务意外对发达经济体和新兴市场经济体通胀预期的影响。本文发现,债务意外事件会持续提高新兴市场经济体的长期通胀预期,而发达经济体则不会。当初始债务水平已经很高、通胀水平最初很高以及债务美元化程度很高时,这种影响会更大。相比之下,债务意外对实行通胀目标制的国家影响不大。新兴市场经济体的债务水平高且美元化,货币政策框架较弱,债务水平的提高可能会使对抗通胀的斗争复杂化。
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引用次数: 0
Stress testing climate risk: A network-based analysis of the Chinese banking system 气候风险压力测试:基于网络的中国银行系统分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103207
Hai-Chuan Xu , Tai-Min Li , Peng-Fei Dai , Duc Khuong Nguyen , Wei-Xing Zhou
Assessing the impact of climate risks on the financial system is one of the most urgent issues currently. We build a network-based climate risk model to explain how a shock from climate policies translates into shocks in the banking system. Then, we conduct macroprudential stress tests on the Chinese banking system under various climate policy scenarios. We show that under the policy target of peaking the carbon in 2030 and CO2 concentration no more than 500 ppm in 2100, individual banks in China will face equity losses ranging from 1.93% to 14.03%, equivalent to an overall loss of 6.94% in 2025. When considering the electric power sector's adoption of green energy technologies, the adverse effects will be slightly mitigated. Our stress tests suggest that the implementation of climate policies should be gradual and consider potential economic impacts so that climate goals can be achieved without undue shocks to the economy.
评估气候风险对金融体系的影响是当前最紧迫的问题之一。我们建立了一个基于网络的气候风险模型,以解释气候政策的冲击如何转化为银行体系的冲击。然后,我们对不同气候政策情景下的中国银行体系进行了宏观审慎压力测试。结果表明,在 2030 年达到碳排放峰值、2100 年二氧化碳浓度不超过 500ppm 的政策目标下,中国的单个银行将面临 1.93% 至 14.03% 的股本损失,相当于 2025 年 6.94% 的整体损失。如果考虑到电力行业采用绿色能源技术,不利影响将略有缓解。我们的压力测试表明,气候政策的实施应循序渐进,并考虑潜在的经济影响,以便在实现气候目标的同时不会对经济造成过度冲击。
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引用次数: 0
From ban to balance: How agricultural climate policies reshape rural asset allocation? 从禁止到平衡:农业气候政策如何重塑农村资产配置?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103205
Dongyang Zhang
Environmental regulation on climate risk for promoting sustainable development is an important research topic that requires further attention. In response to the increasing awareness of agricultural climate and environmental protection, the implementation of the straw burning ban policy has been adopted in China. To gain a deeper understanding of the implications and effectiveness of the straw burning ban policy on rural households assets allocation behaviors, and this study utilizes China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) during 2010 to 2018 and employs the Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimation strategy to identify the causal effect. Accordingly, we draw several empirical findings. First, the straw burning ban policy has a significant impact on the assets allocation behaviors of rural households, leading to an increase in both risk and non-risk assets. Specifically, a preference for risky investments strongly exist following the occurrence of the straw burning shock. Second, we reveal significant reductions in the number of farmers and farming production costs, including expenses related to irrigation, seeds, and land usage. Conversely, we observe a significant increase in land renting and farmer machinery leasing activities. These effects are found to change the income patterns and thus affect household assets allocation behaviors. Third, the straw burning ban policy has a significant decline impact on household expenditures, specifically in total and housing expenditures, while welfare expenditure shows a positive increase as the preventive motivation. Finally, rural households affected by straw burning ban policy are significantly induced to increase allocation in short-term saving and non-financing assets, as well as in financing fixed-assets and financial investments.
促进可持续发展的气候风险环境监管是一个需要进一步关注的重要研究课题。随着农业气候环境保护意识的增强,中国开始实施秸秆禁烧政策。为深入了解秸秆禁烧政策对农村家庭资产配置行为的影响和效果,本研究利用 2010 年至 2018 年的中国家庭面板研究(CFPS),采用差分估计(DID)策略来识别因果效应。据此,我们得出了几个实证结论。首先,秸秆禁烧政策对农村家庭的资产配置行为有显著影响,导致风险资产和非风险资产的增加。具体而言,秸秆焚烧冲击发生后,农户对风险投资的偏好强烈存在。其次,我们发现农户数量和农业生产成本(包括与灌溉、种子和土地使用相关的费用)显著减少。相反,我们观察到土地租赁和农民机械租赁活动大幅增加。这些效应改变了收入模式,从而影响了家庭资产配置行为。第三,秸秆禁烧政策对家庭支出,特别是总支出和住房支出产生了显著的下降影响,而福利支出则因预防动机而出现了正增长。最后,受秸秆禁烧政策影响的农村家庭会显著增加短期储蓄和非融资性资产的配置,以及固定资产融资和金融投资的配置。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Money and Finance
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