Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

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Tokenization: a potential pathway for Bitcoin’s future 代币化：比特币未来的潜在途径

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103492

Georgii Zvonka

We introduce tokenization as a way to upgrade Bitcoin and analyze how it affects Bitcoin’s value. The tokenization possibility explains Bitcoin’s current high valuation despite expectations that declining mining rewards will reduce security. We develop a new monetarist model with two monetary standards, network effects, and transaction costs from congestion and declining security. Without tokenization options, the model predicts a zero Bitcoin price given declining security. With tokenization, the transition may be delayed by trade-offs between network effects and congestion on Bitcoin’s blockchain versus those on a new monetary standard. As Bitcoin’s security declines, this balance shifts toward the new standard, generating equilibria where Bitcoin’s price rises with token adoption. Bitcoin-backed tokens already exist (e.g., WBTC), demonstrating practical feasibility, though empirical evidence reveals that trust in token issuers remains critical. To address this trust issue, we propose a simple soft-fork mechanism.

我们将代币化作为一种升级比特币的方式，并分析它如何影响比特币的价值。代币化的可能性解释了比特币目前的高估值，尽管人们预期挖矿奖励的下降会降低安全性。我们开发了一个新的货币主义模型，其中包含两种货币标准，网络效应以及来自拥堵和安全性下降的交易成本。如果没有代币化选项，该模型预测，鉴于安全性下降，比特币价格将为零。对于代币化，由于比特币区块链与新货币标准的网络效应和拥堵之间的权衡，过渡可能会延迟。随着比特币的安全性下降，这种平衡向新标准转移，产生均衡，比特币的价格随着代币的采用而上涨。比特币支持的代币已经存在（例如，WBTC），证明了实际的可行性，尽管经验证据表明，对代币发行者的信任仍然至关重要。为了解决这个信任问题，我们提出了一个简单的软分叉机制。

引用次数: 0

Not all housing cycles are created equal: Macroeconomic consequences of housing booms 并非所有的房地产周期都是平等的：房地产繁荣的宏观经济后果

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103496

Bruno Albuquerque , Eugenio Cerutti , Yosuke Kido , Richard Varghese

This paper shows that not all housing price cycles are alike. The speed and persistence of house price increases during housing expansions are key determinants of both the severity of the subsequent downturn and the net macroeconomic impact over the cycle. Analyzing 180 housing expansions across 68 countries, we classify 49 % as housing booms, characterized by rapid and persistent real house price increases. We find that economic downturns are significantly deeper and longer when housing contractions are preceded by a housing boom. The housing contraction is more severe the more intense the preceding housing boom, and when accompanied by a credit boom. Overall, while housing booms spur stronger economic growth during the expansion phase, their sharp reversals lead to severe housing contractions, resulting in significant net negative effects on the real economy.

本文表明，并非所有的房价周期都是相似的。在住房扩张期间，房价上涨的速度和持久性是决定随后经济低迷严重程度和整个周期的净宏观经济影响的关键因素。我们分析了68个国家的180次住房扩张，将49%归类为住房繁荣，其特征是实际房价快速持续上涨。我们发现，当房地产市场收缩之前出现房地产繁荣时，经济衰退的深度和时间都要长得多。之前的房地产繁荣越强烈，当伴随着信贷繁荣时，房地产收缩就越严重。总体而言，虽然房地产繁荣在扩张阶段刺激了更强劲的经济增长，但它们的急剧逆转导致了严重的房地产收缩，对实体经济产生了显著的净负面影响。

引用次数: 0

FOEs and the transmission of US monetary policy shocks: Evidence from China 敌人与美国货币政策冲击的传导：来自中国的证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103497

Yuanyuan Li , Xun Wang , Jingwen Yu

The transmission mechanisms of global liquidity shocks have garnered significant attention, particularly in the context of emerging market economies. This study contributes to this literature by empirically examining a novel household income channel through which foreign-owned enterprises (FOEs) propagate US monetary policy shocks to host countries. Leveraging a large Chinese individual-level survey dataset, we uncover a hitherto understudied mechanism linking external monetary tightening to income dynamics in the private sector. Tightening US monetary policy shocks exhibit a significantly larger contractionary effect on individuals employed in FOEs relative to those in non-FOEs. These spillover effects are more pronounced for individuals working in industries with greater external financial dependence and in provinces with less developed financial sector. Moreover, the income dampening effect of US monetary policy shocks through FOEs affects household consumption, and households with greater financing constraints are more prominently affected. Our paper provides new insights into how FOEs act as transmission intermediaries for external liquidity shocks, affecting the host country’s economy.

全球流动性冲击的传导机制引起了极大的关注，尤其是在新兴市场经济体的背景下。本研究通过实证研究一种新的家庭收入渠道，为这一文献做出了贡献，通过这种渠道，外资企业（foe）将美国货币政策冲击传播给东道国。利用中国大型个人层面的调查数据集，我们发现了一个迄今尚未得到充分研究的机制，将外部货币紧缩与私营部门的收入动态联系起来。紧缩的美国货币政策冲击对发达国家就业的个人的收缩效应明显大于非发达国家就业的个人。这些溢出效应对于在外部金融依赖程度较高的行业和金融部门欠发达省份工作的个人更为明显。此外，美国货币政策冲击对家庭消费的收入抑制效应，融资约束程度越高的家庭受到的影响越显著。我们的论文提供了新的见解，以了解foe如何作为外部流动性冲击的传导中介，影响东道国的经济。

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引用次数: 0

How do credit supply conditions transmit across the globe? 信贷供应状况如何在全球范围内传播？

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103488

Helmut Herwartz , Christian Ochsner , Hannes Rohloff

Pointing to the prominent role of global shocks in determining financial outcomes, global credit aggregates and indicators of country-specific credit market stress co-move to a significant extent. In this work, we examine the transmission of global credit supply shocks associated with governments, businesses and households to the country level. In a data-rich environment, we show that a substantial amount of variation in credit aggregates and interest rates is explained by common global credit supply components. In addition, we find that real risk and term premia and their associated uncertainties (i.e., realized volatilities) transmit global shocks to country-level debt and equity markets. However, effect magnitudes and signs are heterogeneous across sectors, and highlight the relevance of sector-specific credit market monitoring. For instance, whereas global government credit supply eases financial pressures, acting as safe-haven lending, global household credit supply shocks significantly increase risk and liquidity premia across the globe. An investigation of monetary policy effects of major central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ) on global credit supply reveals important transmission heterogeneities of conventional versus unconventional policies.

鉴于全球冲击在决定金融结果方面的突出作用，全球信贷总量和各国信贷市场压力指标在很大程度上是联动的。在这项工作中，我们研究了与政府、企业和家庭相关的全球信贷供应冲击向国家层面的传导。在数据丰富的环境中，我们表明信贷总量和利率的大量变化可以用共同的全球信贷供应组成部分来解释。此外，我们发现实际风险和期限溢价及其相关的不确定性（即已实现波动率）将全球冲击传递到国家层面的债务和股票市场。然而，不同行业的影响程度和迹象是不同的，这凸显了针对特定行业的信贷市场监测的相关性。例如，虽然全球政府信贷供应缓解了金融压力，起到了避险贷款的作用，但全球家庭信贷供应冲击显著增加了全球范围内的风险和流动性溢价。对主要央行（美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行、日本央行）货币政策对全球信贷供应影响的调查揭示了传统政策与非常规政策的重要传导异质性。

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引用次数: 0

Exchange rate regime flexibility and firms’ employment 汇率制度灵活性与企业就业

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103487

Silvio Contessi , Qingyuan Du , Deting Gao , Lei Pan , Shenxiang Xie

This paper examines how exchange rate regime flexibility impacts the allocation of labor across firms. Specifically, we investigate how differences in labor-intensity or capital-intensity in production affect employment decisions under various degrees of exchange rate regime flexibility. In a simple theoretical model, we show that firms utilizing more labor-intensive production technologies are more likely to expand their employment when the exchange rate they face becomes less flexible. In contrast, firms employing more capital-intensive technology tend to hire more workers when the exchange rate is more flexible. We test our theory using granular firm-level data from China and provide robust evidence supporting the theoretical predictions.

本文考察了汇率制度灵活性对企业间劳动力配置的影响。具体来说，我们研究了在不同程度的汇率制度灵活性下，生产中劳动强度或资本强度的差异如何影响就业决策。在一个简单的理论模型中，我们表明，当企业面临的汇率变得不那么灵活时，使用更多劳动密集型生产技术的企业更有可能扩大就业。相反，当汇率更灵活时，雇佣更多资本密集型技术的公司倾向于雇佣更多的工人。我们使用来自中国的颗粒级企业数据来检验我们的理论，并提供有力的证据来支持理论预测。

引用次数: 0

Government spending dynamics in small open economies 小型开放经济体的政府支出动态

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103483

Raphaelle G. Coulombe , Jaroslav Horvath

Compared to small open advanced economies (AEs), emerging market economies (EMEs) exhibit simultaneously higher volatility and procyclicality of government spending, two features likely to amplify business cycle fluctuations. To rationalize these stylized facts, we augment the canonical small open economy model with heterogeneous parties and repeated elections with endogenous voting. We relate the distinct dynamics of government spending in EMEs to a combination of larger interest rate fluctuations and a higher degree of political polarization. While, on their own, interest rate shocks and political polarization account, respectively, for about a quarter and a half of government spending variance in EMEs, we show that higher political polarization amplifies the macroeconomic effects of interest rate shocks by increasing political turnover. We provide corroborating evidence for this mechanism by documenting that EMEs exhibit, on average, larger political turnover than AEs.

与小型开放的发达经济体（ae）相比，新兴市场经济体（eme）同时表现出更高的波动性和政府支出的顺周期性，这两个特征可能会放大商业周期波动。为了使这些风格化的事实合理化，我们用异质政党和内生投票的重复选举来增强规范的小型开放经济模型。我们将eme中政府支出的独特动态与较大的利率波动和较高程度的政治两极分化联系起来。虽然利率冲击和政治极化本身分别占到eme政府支出差异的四分之一和一半左右，但我们表明，更高的政治极化通过增加政治更替放大了利率冲击的宏观经济效应。我们通过记录EMEs表现出平均比ae更大的政治流动率，为这一机制提供了确凿的证据。

引用次数: 0

The trade-inflation nexus: The role of production networks 贸易-通货膨胀关系：生产网络的作用

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103484

Thuy Hang Duong , Weifeng Larry Liu

From the 1990s until the COVID-19 pandemic, the world experienced a sustained period of low and stable inflation, alongside a marked increase in trade integration among countries. This paper examines the impacts of international trade on inflation through domestic production networks. We first construct a theoretical model of an open economy to illustrate how domestic input–output networks propagate the price impacts of trade shocks. Using Australia as a case study, we find that the network impacts of trade shocks on inflation are as significant as their direct impacts, and primarily propagate upstream, based on data from 47 manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2023. Australia’s low inflation before COVID benefited from increased exposure to China’s low-cost exports, while inflation surged during episodes of global supply chain disruptions, among other factors. This paper underscores the importance of economic globalization and production structures for inflation, and offers several implications for monetary and trade policies.

从20世纪90年代到2019冠状病毒病大流行，世界经历了持续的低而稳定的通货膨胀时期，同时各国之间的贸易一体化显著加强。本文通过国内生产网络考察国际贸易对通货膨胀的影响。我们首先构建了一个开放经济的理论模型，以说明国内投入产出网络如何传播贸易冲击的价格影响。以澳大利亚为例，基于2000年至2023年47个制造业的数据，我们发现贸易冲击对通胀的网络影响与其直接影响一样显著，并且主要是向上游传播。澳大利亚在新冠肺炎之前的低通胀得益于对中国低成本出口的敞口增加，而在全球供应链中断等因素期间，通胀飙升。本文强调了经济全球化和生产结构对通货膨胀的重要性，并对货币和贸易政策提出了几点启示。

引用次数: 0

Liquidity, sentiment, and global spillover across financial markets 流动性、市场情绪和金融市场的全球溢出效应

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103494

Zeyun Bei , Liyuan Cui , Yinggang Zhou

Debate remains about what drives global spillovers across financial markets. We address this question by examining the roles of sentiment, liquidity, and other fundamental linkages. Investor sentiment principally drives short-term spillovers, while long-term transmission is primarily influenced by liquidity. Moreover, we highlight the essential influence of capital flows in adjusting market liquidity and triggering global spillovers. Investor sentiment significantly intensifies the impacts of capital flows and unconventional monetary policies, contributing to potential systemic risks during distress. Additionally, we propose a new approach to capturing the structural changes in spillover networks and decomposing them into short- and long-term components.

关于是什么推动了金融市场的全球溢出效应，争论仍在继续。我们通过研究情绪、流动性和其他基本联系的作用来解决这个问题。投资者情绪主要驱动短期溢出效应，而长期溢出效应主要受流动性影响。此外，我们强调资本流动在调节市场流动性和引发全球溢出效应方面的重要影响。投资者情绪显著加剧了资本流动和非常规货币政策的影响，在危机期间加剧了潜在的系统性风险。此外，我们提出了一种新的方法来捕捉溢出网络的结构变化，并将其分解为短期和长期组成部分。

引用次数: 0

Post-pandemic monetary policy in Korea: toward an Integrated Policy Framework 韩国大流行后的货币政策：迈向综合政策框架

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103490

Changyong Rhee

In conducting monetary policy since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Korea (BOK) faced trade-offs among policy objectives. During the tightening cycle to curb inflation, the BOK experienced sharp currency depreciation driven by the Federal Reserve’s faster rate hikes, alongside heightened financial instability. As the BOK’s policy stance shifted, financial imbalances intensified, and political turmoil emerged thereafter. The Bank has addressed the trade-offs by employing various combinations of policy tools, which aligns with the core principles of Integrated Policy Framework developed by the IMF and the BIS. Throughout this process, the BOK has gained key lessons, including the importance of policy cooperation, the challenges of communication, and the need for flexible policy responses with long-term perspective.

自新冠疫情以来，韩国银行在实施货币政策时，面临着政策目标之间的权衡。在遏制通胀的紧缩周期中，韩国央行经历了货币大幅贬值，原因是美联储（fed）加快了加息步伐，同时金融不稳定加剧。随着韩国央行政策立场的转变，金融失衡加剧，随后出现了政治动荡。世行通过采用各种政策工具组合来解决这一权衡问题，这符合国际货币基金组织和国际清算银行制定的《综合政策框架》的核心原则。在这一过程中，韩国银行得到了重要的教训，包括政策合作的重要性、沟通的挑战、从长远角度灵活应对政策的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Climate risk and central banking in Asia: balancing price stability and financial stability 气候风险与亚洲央行：平衡价格稳定与金融稳定

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103491

Sayuri Shirai

Climate change is increasingly recognized as having material impacts on the economy and inflation. However, its integration into core monetary policy frameworks—such as inflation targeting or policy rate setting—remains limited in scope and depth. Instead, some central banks apply green considerations to peripheral tools such as lending facilities, collateral frameworks, or reserve management, whose impact can be enhanced with clear taxonomies or similar classification systems. Looking ahead, the direct integration of climate factors into monetary policy may become feasible when (a) climate risks have measurable and persistent impacts on inflation and output; (b) reliable data are incorporated into macroeconomic forecasting models, and (c) mandates explicitly allow consideration of such risks. By contrast, financial stability frameworks have been advancing more rapidly, with central banks and financial supervisors embedding climate risks into prudential reviews and conducting climate scenario analysis or stress testing. To promote banks’ further climate actions, encouraging climate-related disclosure including financed emissions and adopting common methodologies is essential.

人们越来越认识到气候变化对经济和通货膨胀产生了重大影响。然而，它与核心货币政策框架（如通胀目标制或政策利率设定）的整合在范围和深度上仍然有限。相反，一些央行将绿色考虑应用于外围工具，如贷款工具、抵押品框架或储备管理，这些工具的影响可以通过明确的分类或类似的分类系统来增强。展望未来，在以下情况下，将气候因素直接纳入货币政策可能是可行的：(a)气候风险对通胀和产出具有可衡量和持续的影响；(b)将可靠的数据纳入宏观经济预测模型，(c)任务规定明确允许考虑这种风险。相比之下，金融稳定框架的推进速度更快，央行和金融监管机构将气候风险纳入审慎评估，并开展气候情景分析或压力测试。为促进银行进一步采取气候行动，鼓励气候相关信息披露（包括融资排放）和采用共同方法至关重要。

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