Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

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Climate risk and corporate debt decision

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103261

Chuyu Jiang , Yating Li , Xuan Zhang , Yang Zhao

This study investigates the impact of climate risk on firms’ debt decisions from a demand-side perspective in the Chinese market. Using data from Chinese listed companies spanning 2007 to 2022, we examine how physical climate risk influences firms’ leverage decisions. The key findings are as follows: (1) Physical climate risk is negatively associated with firms’ leverage ratios, and this relationship holds across a series of robustness checks; (2) Firm-level climate risk awareness and the geographical allocation of business activities in regions with higher climate risk exposure amplify this effect; (3) Physical climate risk reduces leverage ratios by increasing corporate financing constraints and lowering future profitability; (4) The impact is more pronounced among firms in highly competitive industries, non-knowledge-intensive sectors, and those located in economically underdeveloped regions of China; (5) Firms with greater exposure to climate risk, facilitated by lower leverage ratios, tend to demonstrate stronger sustainable development performance, prioritizing green innovation over traditional innovation. Overall, our findings provide robust empirical evidence for firms to develop sustainability strategies in response to potential climate risks. This underscores the importance of integrating climate considerations into corporate operations, particularly in the context of debt decision-making.

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引用次数: 0

CEOS’ climate risk perception bias and corporate debt structure

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103254

Shupei Huang , Xinya Wang , Yi Xue , Xinzhi Zhang

Climate risk, the biggest challenge faced by the human society, poses great complexities and difficulties to the corporate operations. Unlike previous studies focus on either the objective level of climate risks or the subjective perception for such risk, we quantify the difference between the objective level and subjective perception of climate risk and define as CEOs’ climate risk perception bias, and further explore the impact of the bias on the corporate debt structure. The empirical results reveal several key findings. First, the baseline regression results indicate that an increase in CEOs’ climate risk perception bias is positively associated with debt concentration, while simultaneously leading to a reduction in the number of debt instruments. Robustness checks confirm the stability of these findings across various model specifications and sample sets, enhancing the reliability of the observed relationships. Additionally, heterogeneity tests show that the significant effects of climate risk perception bias on debt structure are primarily present in firms with a proper understanding of climate risks, while those that underestimate or overstate such risks display non-significant changes. Mechanistically, our analysis highlights that CEOs’ climate risk perception bias significantly reduce R&D expenditures, reflecting a trade-off between immediate financial stability and long-term innovation potential. Furthermore, heightened perception biases correlate with decreased risk tolerance and increased financial constraints, limiting firms’ flexibility in adapting to changing market conditions. These findings emphasize the need for accurate climate risk assessments to inform corporate financial strategies. Policymakers should facilitate access to diverse financing options to help companies manage climate-related uncertainties while maintaining financial flexibility.

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引用次数: 0

Does extreme climate exacerbate the risk spillover in green finance markets? evidence from a multi-horizon investment perspective

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103262

Qichang Xie , Ruize Gong , Lei Yin , Xin Xu

Green finance is playing an increasingly important role in building an innovative financial system. However, faced with the growing frequency of extreme weather and external shocks, the stable operation of the green finance market is under pressure and challenge. Given the high-dimensional nature and the variation of financial risk contagion across different time scales, this paper introduces the HD-TVPVAR-BK (high-dimensional time-varying frequency domain) spillover index model to analyze the risk spillover among major financial institutions within China’s green finance market under different investment horizons. Moreover, a GARCH-MIDAS-EC mixed-frequency model is constructed to explore the multi-horizon driving impact of extreme climate on the risk spillover of the green finance market. The results show that short-term risk spillovers are the main contributors to risk contagion among financial institutions in the green finance market, far exceeding the risk spillover in the long term, and the risk spillover in the short-term is more significant in the face of external shocks, indicating a stronger immediate market response to exogenous events. Extreme weather is an important catalyst exacerbating risk spillover in the green finance market, with a more prominent impact on short-term investment horizons. Different extreme climate conditions have varying impacts on risk spillovers in the green finance market, with the long-term effects of extreme precipitation being more profound compared to extreme low temperatures and high temperatures. The results of this paper reveal for the first time the impact of different climatic conditions on cross-term risk contagion in the green finance market, providing new evidence for the effective prevention of extreme weather shocks to the financial market.

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引用次数: 0

U.S.-China trade frictions and supply chain reconstruction: Perspective from indirect links

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103256

Changyuan Luo , Ning Wang

Building on the theoretical discussions, the paper empirically investigates how U.S.-China trade frictions impact the supply chain through the perspective of indirect links. It utilizes data of U.S. listed firms from 2014 to 2022 and employs a difference-in-differences model for analysis. The baseline estimation finds that U.S. firms tend to establish supply chain relations with third country firms deeply integrated into Chinese supply chain after 2018. Mechanism analysis shows that after trade frictions occur, U.S. firms choose to maintain indirect supply chain connections with China through third countries based on considerations of procedural costs, financial costs, and relational costs. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that U.S. firms in industries directly affected by trade frictions or in industries where China has supply chain advantages are inclined to make such adjustments, tending to engage in indirect cooperation with Chinese firms through third-country firms that have pre-existing supply chain collaborations with Chinese firms. Extended analysis examines the supply chain adjustments of other countries or regions after the trade frictions. We find that Chinese firms increase their supply chain connections with third countries and increase green-field investment in these countries. U.S. allies also adjust their supply chains like the U.S., while non-U.S. allies do not make any adjustments. Hence, the paper believes that the “decoupling” strategy may be difficult to achieve, and trade restrictions only lead to U.S. firms maintaining indirect relations with China through third countries.

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引用次数: 0

Current account dynamics and saving-investment nexus in a changing and uncertain world

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103238

Menzie Chinn , Hiro Ito

We re‐examine the determinants of current account balances (CAB) and the saving-investment nexus with focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We are in a new age in terms of facing not just economic challenges but also other non-economic challenges such as global climate changes, increasing natural disasters, and wars. We face the need to reexamine the determinants of CAB along with national saving and investment. We first take an event study approach, examining how these variables have evolved historically in the wake of wars, natural disasters, and pandemics. The second is a cross‐country panel investigation of CAB, national saving, and of investment. In the presence of global financial instability, EMDEs tend to experience an improvement in CAB due to a fall in investment. A rise in oil prices increases both national saving and investment, but the change in investment is greater than the change in national saving, which worsens CAB. Contractionary monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board tends to lower both national saving and investment, but the impact on CAB is not statistically different from zero. The more frequently a country experiences wars, on average, its CAB tends to improve. When a climatological or geographical disaster happens, all of its CAB, national saving, and investment tend to improve. A rise in the level of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty leads to an improvement in CAB, mainly due to a fall in investment.

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引用次数: 0

U.S. monetary policy and portfolio spillover effects: The role of global production network

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103255

Tong Qi , Jiezhou Ying

This paper evaluates the impact of global production linkages on the transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to capital flows across countries (e.g., portfolio flows). The spatial autoregression (SAR) model is applied to separate the total influence of U.S. monetary policy into two distinct components: a direct effect and a network effect. The empirical results show that around 70 % of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on capital flows can be attributed to the network effect of global production network. Moreover, we prove that stock market returns play a significant role in the underlying mechanism. The coordination of the monetary policies between target countries and the United States could reduce the network effects. The additional analysis reveals that countries with larger size, more reliance on dollar invoicing, greater financial openness and higher levels of financial development are more susceptible to the network impact of U.S. monetary shocks.

引用次数: 0

Industry growth at the lower bound

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103283

Arsenios Skaperdas

I show that if monetary policy is constrained by a lower bound on short-term interest rates, industries typically affected by monetary policy are disproportionately negatively affected. I test for this prediction in US data over 2008-2014 using multiple data sources and measures of monetary policy sensitivity. I find little evidence that growth was negatively affected, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was not very constrained by the lower bound.

引用次数: 0

Exchange rate regime and optimal policy: The case of China

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103277

Yujeong Cho , Yintao He , Yiping Huang , Jieru Wang , Changhua Yu

This paper studies optimal financial taxes under alternative monetary regimes in a small open economy with Chinese characteristics. Entrepreneurs issue foreign currency-denominated debt but often encounter financial constraints. We focus on three types of external shocks: foreign interest rate shocks, foreign demand shocks, and exchange rate shocks. Foreign interest rate and exchange rate shocks affect the Chinese economy mainly through the financial channel, while foreign demand shocks primarily affect it through the trade channel. Either an optimal capital inflow tax or an optimal financial regulation tax, or an optimal joint policy leans against the wind due to pecuniary externalities caused by financial frictions. This, in turn, leads to more stable macroeconomic variables and higher welfare. In addition, a more flexible exchange rate regime can effectively mitigate the impact of external shocks on the Chinese economy and contribute to increased welfare.

引用次数: 0

The exchange rate elasticity of the Swiss current account

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103279

Johannes Eugster , Giovanni Donato

This paper investigates the effects of Switzerland’s real effective exchange rate (REER) on its current account. Using dynamic empirical methods, we focus on exchange rate movements that are unrelated to real and monetary developments, i.e., those more likely to be driven by the Swiss franc’s safe-haven proprieties or unexpected exchange rate policy decisions. The paper’s key result is that the Swiss headline current account has been largely inelastic to the exchange rate at the business cycle frequency. Three factors explain this somewhat counterintuitive result. A) A negative but short-lived effect on the trade balance is partly offset by a positive effect on net investment income. B) Large and often volatile net exports of nonmonetary gold blur the aggregate reaction. C) Improved terms-of-trade largely offset the negative effect on the (real) goods trade balance, as import prices tend to fall by more than export prices. The limited sensitivity of the current account, however, does not mean that the Swiss economy is insensitive to the exchange rate. Our results confirm that consumer prices, as well as corporate profits in particularly exposed sectors, decline significantly following an appreciation. These results suggest that an appreciation of the Swiss franc likely doesn’t reduce Switzerland’s current account quickly but rather tightens monetary conditions, reduces GDP, and hampers prospects in the longer term.

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引用次数: 0

Monetary policy spillovers: Is this time different?

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103278

Hongyi Chen , Peter Tillmann

Monetary policy changes in the U.S. have important cross-border effects on small open economies. Since 2022, the Fed has tightened monetary policy considerably, yet it appears that spillovers on the rest of the world are smaller than in the past. We investigate this idea by analyzing the international propagation of Fed policy using a panel of advanced and emerging economies since 1994. We distinguish the current tightening cycle from previous ones and find that international spillovers from the 2022/3 U.S. monetary tightening episode are more benign than the historical average. We estimate smooth-transition local projections in which spillovers depend on the state of the U.S. business cycle. We find that if domestic demand in the U.S. is weak, international spillovers are large. However, spillovers are absent if demand in the U.S. remains strong. Hence, a “soft landing“ of the U.S. economy makes a difference for the magnitude of international spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world.

引用次数: 0

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