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Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations 高债务是否制约了货币政策?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103206
Luis Brandao-Marques , Marco Casiraghi , Gaston Gelos , Olamide Harrison , Gunes Kamber
This paper examines whether high public debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing the impact of public debt surprises on inflation expectations advanced- and emerging market economies. It finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The effects are stronger when initial debt levels are already high, when inflation levels are initially high, and when debt dollarization is significant. By contrast, debt surprises have only modest effects in countries with inflation targeting regimes. Increased debt levels may complicate the fight against inflation in emerging market economies with high and dollarized debt levels, and weaker monetary policy frameworks.
本文探讨了高额公共债务是否会对抑制通胀构成挑战。为此,本文评估了公共债务意外对发达经济体和新兴市场经济体通胀预期的影响。本文发现,债务意外事件会持续提高新兴市场经济体的长期通胀预期,而发达经济体则不会。当初始债务水平已经很高、通胀水平最初很高以及债务美元化程度很高时,这种影响会更大。相比之下,债务意外对实行通胀目标制的国家影响不大。新兴市场经济体的债务水平高且美元化,货币政策框架较弱,债务水平的提高可能会使对抗通胀的斗争复杂化。
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引用次数: 0
Stress testing climate risk: A network-based analysis of the Chinese banking system 气候风险压力测试:基于网络的中国银行系统分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103207
Hai-Chuan Xu , Tai-Min Li , Peng-Fei Dai , Duc Khuong Nguyen , Wei-Xing Zhou
Assessing the impact of climate risks on the financial system is one of the most urgent issues currently. We build a network-based climate risk model to explain how a shock from climate policies translates into shocks in the banking system. Then, we conduct macroprudential stress tests on the Chinese banking system under various climate policy scenarios. We show that under the policy target of peaking the carbon in 2030 and CO2 concentration no more than 500 ppm in 2100, individual banks in China will face equity losses ranging from 1.93% to 14.03%, equivalent to an overall loss of 6.94% in 2025. When considering the electric power sector's adoption of green energy technologies, the adverse effects will be slightly mitigated. Our stress tests suggest that the implementation of climate policies should be gradual and consider potential economic impacts so that climate goals can be achieved without undue shocks to the economy.
评估气候风险对金融体系的影响是当前最紧迫的问题之一。我们建立了一个基于网络的气候风险模型,以解释气候政策的冲击如何转化为银行体系的冲击。然后,我们对不同气候政策情景下的中国银行体系进行了宏观审慎压力测试。结果表明,在 2030 年达到碳排放峰值、2100 年二氧化碳浓度不超过 500ppm 的政策目标下,中国的单个银行将面临 1.93% 至 14.03% 的股本损失,相当于 2025 年 6.94% 的整体损失。如果考虑到电力行业采用绿色能源技术,不利影响将略有缓解。我们的压力测试表明,气候政策的实施应循序渐进,并考虑潜在的经济影响,以便在实现气候目标的同时不会对经济造成过度冲击。
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引用次数: 0
From ban to balance: How agricultural climate policies reshape rural asset allocation? 从禁止到平衡:农业气候政策如何重塑农村资产配置?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103205
Dongyang Zhang
Environmental regulation on climate risk for promoting sustainable development is an important research topic that requires further attention. In response to the increasing awareness of agricultural climate and environmental protection, the implementation of the straw burning ban policy has been adopted in China. To gain a deeper understanding of the implications and effectiveness of the straw burning ban policy on rural households assets allocation behaviors, and this study utilizes China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) during 2010 to 2018 and employs the Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimation strategy to identify the causal effect. Accordingly, we draw several empirical findings. First, the straw burning ban policy has a significant impact on the assets allocation behaviors of rural households, leading to an increase in both risk and non-risk assets. Specifically, a preference for risky investments strongly exist following the occurrence of the straw burning shock. Second, we reveal significant reductions in the number of farmers and farming production costs, including expenses related to irrigation, seeds, and land usage. Conversely, we observe a significant increase in land renting and farmer machinery leasing activities. These effects are found to change the income patterns and thus affect household assets allocation behaviors. Third, the straw burning ban policy has a significant decline impact on household expenditures, specifically in total and housing expenditures, while welfare expenditure shows a positive increase as the preventive motivation. Finally, rural households affected by straw burning ban policy are significantly induced to increase allocation in short-term saving and non-financing assets, as well as in financing fixed-assets and financial investments.
促进可持续发展的气候风险环境监管是一个需要进一步关注的重要研究课题。随着农业气候环境保护意识的增强,中国开始实施秸秆禁烧政策。为深入了解秸秆禁烧政策对农村家庭资产配置行为的影响和效果,本研究利用 2010 年至 2018 年的中国家庭面板研究(CFPS),采用差分估计(DID)策略来识别因果效应。据此,我们得出了几个实证结论。首先,秸秆禁烧政策对农村家庭的资产配置行为有显著影响,导致风险资产和非风险资产的增加。具体而言,秸秆焚烧冲击发生后,农户对风险投资的偏好强烈存在。其次,我们发现农户数量和农业生产成本(包括与灌溉、种子和土地使用相关的费用)显著减少。相反,我们观察到土地租赁和农民机械租赁活动大幅增加。这些效应改变了收入模式,从而影响了家庭资产配置行为。第三,秸秆禁烧政策对家庭支出,特别是总支出和住房支出产生了显著的下降影响,而福利支出则因预防动机而出现了正增长。最后,受秸秆禁烧政策影响的农村家庭会显著增加短期储蓄和非融资性资产的配置,以及固定资产融资和金融投资的配置。
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引用次数: 0
Adjusting toward long-run purchasing power parity 向长期购买力平价调整
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103204
Kian Ong
Under purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and relative prices adjust to maintain a constant real exchange rate in the long run. Its empirical validity continues to be questioned. We use data on exchange rates and prices relative to the U.S. for a long-span (1870–2020) panel of 16 countries to examine (a) whether the long-run elasticity is one; (b) whether there is adjustment by exchange rates or prices to maintain a constant real exchange rate and (c) the time taken to adjust. We use four estimators, which increasingly restrict the model. These are country-specific vector error correction model in exchange rates and relative prices; the Johansen estimator, which has the cross-equation restriction that the long-run coefficient in the two equations is the same; the system pooled mean group estimator, which has a homogeneous long-run coefficient over countries and heterogeneous short-run dynamics, and a univariate real exchange rate equation used to obtain median unbiased estimates of the half-life.
在购买力平价(PPP)下,汇率和相对价格会进行调整,以保持长期不变的实际汇率。其经验有效性仍然受到质疑。我们使用 16 个国家的长跨度(1870-2020 年)相对于美国的汇率和价格数据来研究:(a) 长期弹性是否为一;(b) 汇率或价格是否会进行调整以维持不变的实际汇率;(c) 调整所需的时间。我们使用了四种估计方法,它们对模型的限制越来越大。它们是汇率和相对价格的国别向量误差修正模型;Johansen 估计器,它有交叉方程限制,即两个方程中的长期系数是相同的;系统集合均值组估计器,它有各国同质的长期系数和异质的短期动态,以及单变量实际汇率方程,用于获得半衰期的中位无偏估计值。
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引用次数: 0
Tax shocks, firm entry, and productivity in the open economy 开放经济中的税收冲击、企业进入和生产率
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103203
Mathias Klein , Ludger Linnemann
We examine the role of endogenous firm entry for the domestic effects and international repercussions of tax policy. We present new evidence from proxy-vector autoregressions that exogenous US tax reductions increase hourly labor productivity and firm creation domestically, and induce higher trade deficits and real depreciation with respect to the other G7 countries, with positive spillovers to foreign consumption and investment. We show that the empirical evidence is compatible with a two-country model with endogenous firm entry. The entry channel provides a strong amplification mechanism for the supply effects of tax shocks at home and leads to persistent spillovers to the foreign economies.
我们研究了内生企业进入对税收政策的国内影响和国际反响的作用。我们从代理向量自回归中提出了新的证据,表明美国的外生减税政策提高了小时劳动生产率和国内企业创建率,并导致与其他七国集团(G7)国家相比更高的贸易赤字和实际贬值,同时对国外消费和投资产生了积极的溢出效应。我们的研究表明,经验证据与内生企业进入的两国模型相吻合。进入渠道为国内税收冲击的供给效应提供了一个强大的放大机制,并导致对国外经济体的持续溢出效应。
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引用次数: 0
Energy price surges and inflation: Fiscal policy to the rescue? 能源价格飙升和通货膨胀:财政政策来救市?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103201
Christian Glocker , Philipp Wegmüller
Motivated by the fiscal policy measures taken by euro zone governments during the 2021/2022 energy crisis, we examine their ability to counter inflationary surges resulting from energy price hikes in energy-importing economies. We use a calibrated small-open economy model in which monetary policy fixes the exchange rate. Subsidies on the sale of energy and on firms' energy expenditures are among the most effective instruments. They reduce marginal costs and limit the pass-through of the price hike which attenuates inflation and stabilizes output and the current account. While inflation indexation of prices aggravates the adverse effects, it renders consumption tax cuts more effective as they attenuate the shock's domestic circulation.
受欧元区政府在 2021/2022 年能源危机期间采取的财政政策措施的启发,我们研究了这些政府应对能源进口经济体因能源价格上涨而导致的通货膨胀激增的能力。我们使用了一个经过校准的小型开放经济模型,在该模型中,货币政策固定汇率。对能源销售和企业能源支出的补贴是最有效的手段之一。它们降低了边际成本,限制了价格上涨的传递,从而抑制了通货膨胀,稳定了产出和经常账户。虽然将通货膨胀与价格指数挂钩会加剧不利影响,但它使消费税削减更加有效,因为消费税削减会减弱冲击在国内的传播。
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引用次数: 0
Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB Executive Board 用人人都能听懂的语言说话?欧洲中央银行执行董事会发言的清晰度
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103200
Lena Bjerkander , Alexander Glas
We use data on speeches held by members of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Executive Board to analyze whether the clarity of central bank communication has increased over time. Employing readability measures as proxy variables, we find that the clarity of information provision is trending upward since the inception of the ECB. The increase is gradual rather than being induced by changes in the board composition or major macroeconomic events. We also show that clarity is higher for speeches aimed at general audiences and for speeches by female speakers. Moreover, we find that higher clarity of speeches is associated with more optimistic media sentiment about the ECB and a stronger relationship between speech and media sentiment.
我们利用欧洲中央银行(ECB)执行董事会成员的演讲数据来分析央行沟通的清晰度是否随着时间的推移而提高。利用可读性指标作为替代变量,我们发现自欧洲央行成立以来,信息提供的清晰度呈上升趋势。这种增长是渐进的,而不是由董事会组成的变化或重大宏观经济事件引起的。我们还发现,针对普通听众的演讲和女性演讲者的演讲清晰度更高。此外,我们还发现,演讲的清晰度越高,媒体对欧洲央行的看法就越乐观,演讲与媒体看法之间的关系就越紧密。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty and innovation in renewable energy 可再生能源的不确定性与创新
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103202
Luca Bettarelli , Davide Furceri , Pietro Pizzuto , Nadia Shakoor
This paper empirically investigates the impact of economic and policy uncertainty on green innovation for a sample of 81 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1976–2020. Our results show that increases in uncertainty lead to a long-lasting decrease in green innovation, measured by the number of new green energy patents. This effect holds for a wide set of technologies, it is larger during recessions and periods of higher financial stress, and in countries with less stringent environment protection regulations. Importantly, the effect of uncertainty on green patents is larger than on non-green patents. Results are robust to several sensitivity tests, including an instrumental variable approach and a difference-in-differences strategy.
本文以 1976-2020 年间 81 个发达经济体和新兴市场经济体为样本,实证研究了经济和政策不确定性对绿色创新的影响。我们的研究结果表明,不确定性的增加会导致绿色创新(以新的绿色能源专利数量衡量)的长期减少。这种影响适用于多种技术,在经济衰退和金融压力较大的时期,以及在环保法规不那么严格的国家,这种影响更大。重要的是,不确定性对绿色专利的影响大于对非绿色专利的影响。结果对几种敏感性测试都是稳健的,包括工具变量方法和差分策略。
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引用次数: 0
Green vs. brown: Climate risk showdown – who’s thriving, who’s diving? 绿色与褐色:气候风险对决--谁在茁壮成长,谁在沉沦?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103198
Dongyang Zhang , Dingchuan Bai , Yizhi Wang
Increasingly complex climate change poses unprecedented risks and challenges. We attempt to analyze the strategic responses of firms in dealing with climate risk and whether green firms outperform brown firms by exploring the relationship between climate risk and firms’ cash flow. To this end, this paper uses the high-dimensional fixed-effects model for empirical analysis based on panel data of Chinese listed firms from Q1 2010 to Q4 2022. We find that firms have the motivation to hold more cash in the face of climate risk, and that brown firms will be more proactive in cash flow management compared to green firms. In addition, there are significant industry and seasonal effects of climate risk on firms’ cash flow. Mechanism tests find that climate risk prompts firms to increase cash flow by forcing them to reduce financial leverage and erode operating costs, as well as by inducing increased media attention to the firm. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect of climate risk on cash flow is more significant among low digital transformation firms, high financial constraints firms, firms with low managerial myopia, and SOEs. An analysis of the economic consequences shows that climate risk leads firms to be more aggressive in capturing market share, increasing productivity and strengthening ESG performance. The above findings help to enlighten firms on how to manage their risk exposures and adjust their internal governance structures as a way to maintain stable operations in an environment of intensified uncertainty. In brief, this paper highlights the differentiated financial decisions that green and brown firms make in response to climate risk, providing empirical evidence and policy implications for advancing the green transformation of firms.
日益复杂的气候变化带来了前所未有的风险和挑战。我们试图通过探究气候风险与企业现金流之间的关系,分析企业应对气候风险的战略对策,以及绿色企业是否优于褐色企业。为此,本文基于 2010 年第一季度至 2022 年第四季度的中国上市公司面板数据,采用高维固定效应模型进行实证分析。我们发现,面对气候风险,企业有动力持有更多现金,而且与绿色企业相比,棕色企业在现金流管理方面会更加积极主动。此外,气候风险对企业现金流还存在显著的行业和季节影响。机制检验发现,气候风险通过迫使企业降低财务杠杆和侵蚀运营成本,以及引起媒体对企业的更多关注,促使企业增加现金流。异质性分析表明,气候风险对现金流的积极影响在低数字化转型企业、高财务约束企业、低管理近视企业和国有企业中更为显著。对经济后果的分析表明,气候风险会促使企业更积极地抢占市场份额、提高生产率和加强环境、社会和公司治理绩效。上述研究结果有助于帮助企业了解如何管理风险敞口和调整内部治理结构,从而在不确定性加剧的环境中保持稳定运营。简而言之,本文强调了绿色企业和棕色企业在应对气候风险时做出的不同财务决策,为推进企业的绿色转型提供了经验证据和政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary and fiscal policy challenges in emerging markets amid elevated uncertainty 新兴市场在不确定性增加的情况下面临货币和财政政策挑战
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103199
Joshua Aizenman , John Beirne , Menzie D. Chinn , Yothin Jinjarak , Donghyun Park
This editorial discusses papers published in a special issue that focuses on monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness and challenges in emerging economies, particularly during periods of amplified global risk aversion and financial market volatility.
这篇社论讨论了发表在特刊上的论文,特刊重点关注新兴经济体货币和财政政策的有效性及面临的挑战,尤其是在全球风险规避和金融市场波动加剧的时期。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Money and Finance
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