Pub Date : 2025-12-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103510
Yunhan Zhang , Zhixin Liu , Hao Jin
This paper examines how the interactions of monetary and fiscal policy affect the consolidation of public debt. Using data across 86 countries from 1982 to 2021 and a debt decomposition framework, we find that the adoption of inflation targeting significantly strengthens the role of primary surplus on debt consolidation, whereas the joint implementation of fiscal rules and inflation targeting further increases the relative contribution of primary surplus in debt consolidation while weakening the relative contribution of inflation. We employ a New Keynesian model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions to reconcile the empirical findings. In addition, counterfactual analyses show that the U.S. debt consolidation from 1994 to 2001 would rely more on inflation and result in worse welfare outcomes if fiscal policy dominates or if policies lack coordination.
{"title":"Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in public debt consolidation: the role of fiscal rules and inflation targeting","authors":"Yunhan Zhang , Zhixin Liu , Hao Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103510","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103510","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the interactions of monetary and fiscal policy affect the consolidation of public debt. Using data across 86 countries from 1982 to 2021 and a debt decomposition framework, we find that the adoption of inflation targeting significantly strengthens the role of primary surplus on debt consolidation, whereas the joint implementation of fiscal rules and inflation targeting further increases the relative contribution of primary surplus in debt consolidation while weakening the relative contribution of inflation. We employ a New Keynesian model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions to reconcile the empirical findings. In addition, counterfactual analyses show that the U.S. debt consolidation from 1994 to 2001 would rely more on inflation and result in worse welfare outcomes if fiscal policy dominates or if policies lack coordination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103510"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103512
Vivian M. van Breemen , Claudia Schwarz , Dennis Vink , Frank J. Fabozzi
We empirically investigated the impact of regulatory risk retention methods on credit ratings and pricing at issuance using a sample of European securitization tranches issued from 2011 to 2021. European regulation assumes that all risk retention methods homogenously align incentives and interests between originators and investors. We investigated the impact of these methods on the pricing of securitization tranches. We found that investors adjust the risk premium at issuance for tranches based on different risk retention methods. We also found that credit ratings (discrepancy) differed depending on the risk retention method. Finally, we gained a deeper insight into the risk retention methods chosen over time. We concluded that originators consider deal complexity and capital relief characteristics when selecting a specific method.
{"title":"Risk retention in the European securitization market: Skimmed by the skin-in-the-game methods?","authors":"Vivian M. van Breemen , Claudia Schwarz , Dennis Vink , Frank J. Fabozzi","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We empirically investigated the impact of regulatory risk retention methods on credit ratings and pricing at issuance using a sample of European securitization tranches issued from 2011 to 2021. European regulation assumes that all risk retention methods homogenously align incentives and interests between originators and investors. We investigated the impact of these methods on the pricing of securitization tranches. We found that investors adjust the risk premium at issuance for tranches based on different risk retention methods. We also found that credit ratings (discrepancy) differed depending on the risk retention method. Finally, we gained a deeper insight into the risk retention methods chosen over time. We concluded that originators consider deal complexity and capital relief characteristics when selecting a specific method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103512"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103509
Renzo Alvarez , Hakan Yilmazkuday
Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper investigates the effects of tariffs on the United States inflation and other macroeconomic variables, where alternative monetary policies are considered to mitigate the welfare costs of tariffs. The main innovation of the model is achieved by considering the effects of home versus foreign tariffs in an otherwise standard two-country open economy model with non-zero trend inflation that is estimated using Bayesian techniques with the United States quarterly data, including those on tariffs, inflation, policy rates, output, consumption and exchange rates covering the period between 1990 and 2024. Simulations based on the estimated parameters suggest that tariff pass-through into inflation is about when only the home country imposes tariffs and about when the foreign country retaliates against home tariffs. The counterfactual analyses further suggest that reducing the policy weight on inflation, increasing the policy weight on employment, or having an expansionary monetary policy shock could be used to mitigate the welfare costs of tariff increases.
{"title":"Tariffs, inflation and monetary policy: Implications for welfare","authors":"Renzo Alvarez , Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper investigates the effects of tariffs on the United States inflation and other macroeconomic variables, where alternative monetary policies are considered to mitigate the welfare costs of tariffs. The main innovation of the model is achieved by considering the effects of home versus foreign tariffs in an otherwise standard two-country open economy model with non-zero trend inflation that is estimated using Bayesian techniques with the United States quarterly data, including those on tariffs, inflation, policy rates, output, consumption and exchange rates covering the period between 1990 and 2024. Simulations based on the estimated parameters suggest that tariff pass-through into inflation is about <span><math><mn>9</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>%</mi></math></span> when only the home country imposes tariffs and about <span><math><mn>10</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>%</mi></math></span> when the foreign country retaliates against home tariffs. The counterfactual analyses further suggest that reducing the policy weight on inflation, increasing the policy weight on employment, or having an expansionary monetary policy shock could be used to mitigate the welfare costs of tariff increases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103509"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103508
Michail Litainas , Peter McAdam , Alberto Montagnoli , Konstantinos Mouratidis
Despite extensive research on fiscal policy, evidence on the international transmission of structural fiscal shocks remains limited and inconclusive. We address three gaps. First, we confront the perfect-foresight problem by incorporating a proxy for fiscal policy news into a multi-country VAR model—to our knowledge, the first such study to use this proxy to measure cross-border transmission of US fiscal shocks in a detailed setting. Second, we estimate a Bayesian multi-country VAR that, unlike two-country approaches, fully captures higher-order spillovers. Third, we revisit the interpretation of fiscal multipliers from New Keynesian closed-economy models. We find: (i) international spillovers operate mainly through trade (expenditure switching and boosting); (ii) transmission hinges on each recipient’s growth model; (iii) higher-order spillovers substantially amplify direct spillovers; and (iv) the exchange rate puzzle reflects omitted variables and policy regime effects.
{"title":"News and surprises: Revisiting fiscal shocks in the open economy","authors":"Michail Litainas , Peter McAdam , Alberto Montagnoli , Konstantinos Mouratidis","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103508","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103508","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive research on fiscal policy, evidence on the international transmission of structural fiscal shocks remains limited and inconclusive. We address three gaps. First, we confront the perfect-foresight problem by incorporating a proxy for fiscal policy news into a multi-country VAR model—to our knowledge, the first such study to use this proxy to measure cross-border transmission of US fiscal shocks in a detailed setting. Second, we estimate a Bayesian multi-country VAR that, unlike two-country approaches, fully captures higher-order spillovers. Third, we revisit the interpretation of fiscal multipliers from New Keynesian closed-economy models. We find: (i) international spillovers operate mainly through trade (expenditure switching and boosting); (ii) transmission hinges on each recipient’s growth model; (iii) higher-order spillovers substantially amplify direct spillovers; and (iv) the exchange rate puzzle reflects omitted variables and policy regime effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103508"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103507
Tong Fang , Peng Liu , Zhi Su
We investigate the relationship between global trade network centrality and international stock market returns. We find that trade network centrality negatively and significantly predicts future international stock market returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results also indicate that trade network centrality is priced in international stock market returns, and central (peripheral) economies have lower (higher) stock market returns. A centrality-based long-short trading strategy generates a significant centrality premium, and the risk-adjusted portfolio returns estimated by Fama-French factor models are also significant. We provide several potential explanations and empirically suggest that domestic consumption volatility, international consumption risk-sharing, conflict risk and information asymmetry shed light on the relationship between global trade network centrality and the cross-section of international stock market returns.
{"title":"Global trade network and the cross-section of international stock market returns","authors":"Tong Fang , Peng Liu , Zhi Su","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103507","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the relationship between global trade network centrality and international stock market returns. We find that trade network centrality negatively and significantly predicts future international stock market returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results also indicate that trade network centrality is priced in international stock market returns, and central (peripheral) economies have lower (higher) stock market returns. A centrality-based long-short trading strategy generates a significant centrality premium, and the risk-adjusted portfolio returns estimated by Fama-French factor models are also significant. We provide several potential explanations and empirically suggest that domestic consumption volatility, international consumption risk-sharing, conflict risk and information asymmetry shed light on the relationship between global trade network centrality and the cross-section of international stock market returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103507"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103501
Joonyoung Hur , Soyoung Kim , Yeil Lee
This paper investigates the time-varying effects of monetary policy shocks in five Asian countries—Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand—over the post-2000 period using a time-varying coefficient VAR (TVC-VAR) model. We find that the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks on output and prices have generally intensified over time, whereas the responsiveness of the policy interest rate to macroeconomic conditions has become more limited. To further explore the sectoral transmission mechanisms relevant for inclusive growth, we decompose output into external (exports) and internal (domestic demand) components. The results show that while the responses of exports to monetary policy shocks remain limited, the effects on domestic demand have gradually strengthened over time. These findings underscore the growing importance of the domestic sector in the transmission of monetary policy and highlight the need to account for sectoral asymmetries when designing effective and equitable monetary policy frameworks.
{"title":"Time-varying effects of monetary policy shocks in five asian countries","authors":"Joonyoung Hur , Soyoung Kim , Yeil Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the time-varying effects of monetary policy shocks in five Asian countries—Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand—over the post-2000 period using a time-varying coefficient VAR (TVC-VAR) model. We find that the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks on output and prices have generally intensified over time, whereas the responsiveness of the policy interest rate to macroeconomic conditions has become more limited. To further explore the sectoral transmission mechanisms relevant for inclusive growth, we decompose output into external (exports) and internal (domestic demand) components. The results show that while the responses of exports to monetary policy shocks remain limited, the effects on domestic demand have gradually strengthened over time. These findings underscore the growing importance of the domestic sector in the transmission of monetary policy and highlight the need to account for sectoral asymmetries when designing effective and equitable monetary policy frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103501"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103505
Makram El-Shagi , Steven J. Yamarik
This paper examines the impact of Federal Reserve policy on income inequality across US states. We use the local projections method of Jordà to estimate impulse response functions for each state. We find that a restrictive monetary policy increases income inequality in almost all states, but with differing magnitudes. We also use panel analysis to examine the possible transmission mechanisms that account for these differences. Our empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions – inequality is increased by higher inflation, home ownership, and earnings in the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) sector; but decreased by higher housing prices, unionization rates, educational attainment and minimum wage.
{"title":"Federal reserve monetary policy and income inequality across US states","authors":"Makram El-Shagi , Steven J. Yamarik","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103505","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103505","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of Federal Reserve policy on income inequality across US states. We use the local projections method of Jordà to estimate impulse response functions for each state. We find that a <em>restrictive</em> monetary policy increases income inequality in almost all states, but with differing magnitudes. We also use panel analysis to examine the possible transmission mechanisms that account for these differences. Our empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions – inequality is increased by higher inflation, home ownership, and earnings in the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) sector; but decreased by higher housing prices, unionization rates, educational attainment and minimum wage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103505"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103503
Amat Adarov , Ugo Panizza
This paper introduces a new index measuring the quality of public investment covering 120 economies over the period 2000–2021. It shows that scaling up public investment reduces sove-reign risk in countries with high-quality public investment but increases sovereign risk when public investment quality is low. We find that this relationship is especially pronounced in sub-investment grade countries and that the results are not driven by the possible correlation between public investment quality and overall institutional quality. We also show that scaling up public investment when its quality is high does not undermine debt sustainability.
{"title":"Public investment quality and sovereign risk","authors":"Amat Adarov , Ugo Panizza","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103503","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a new index measuring the quality of public investment covering 120 economies over the period 2000–2021. It shows that scaling up public investment reduces sove-reign risk in countries with high-quality public investment but increases sovereign risk when public investment quality is low. We find that this relationship is especially pronounced in sub-investment grade countries and that the results are not driven by the possible correlation between public investment quality and overall institutional quality. We also show that scaling up public investment when its quality is high does not undermine debt sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103503"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103500
Aariya Sen , Rudra Sensarma
Greater integration among world economies have made Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) susceptible to actions of developed countries. While the literature has studied cross-border ramifications of monetary policy decisions, the effects on financial stress and the role of policy independence of the domestic economies have been ignored. We examine the spillover effects of the US Fed’s monetary policy, including Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP) episodes, on financial stress of EMEs. We also explore the role of EMEs’ monetary policy independence by examining whether the spillover effects are moderated by the responsiveness of an EME’s interest rates to that of the US. We analyse the impact of the US Monetary Policy Shocks (MPS) on the financial stress and monetary independence of 18 EMEs during 2008–2021. The results from Pooled Mean Group estimation reveal that Fed monetary tightening is associated with higher financial stress of EMEs. Furthermore, monetary independence of the EMEs provide a buffer from these spillover effects. These findings underscore the importance of EMEs recognizing the spillover effects of global shocks on their financial markets and the need to safeguard themselves through appropriate institutional design.
{"title":"Beyond borders: spillover effects of US monetary policy on the financial stress of emerging market economies","authors":"Aariya Sen , Rudra Sensarma","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Greater integration among world economies have made Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) susceptible to actions of developed countries. While the literature has studied cross-border ramifications of monetary policy decisions, the effects on financial stress and the role of policy independence of the domestic economies have been ignored. We examine the spillover effects of the US Fed’s monetary policy, including Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP) episodes, on financial stress of EMEs. We also explore the role of EMEs’ monetary policy independence by examining whether the spillover effects are moderated by the responsiveness of an EME’s interest rates to that of the US. We analyse the impact of the US Monetary Policy Shocks (MPS) on the financial stress and monetary independence of 18 EMEs during 2008–2021. The results from Pooled Mean Group estimation reveal that Fed monetary tightening is associated with higher financial stress of EMEs. Furthermore, monetary independence of the EMEs provide a buffer from these spillover effects. These findings underscore the importance of EMEs recognizing the spillover effects of global shocks on their financial markets and the need to safeguard themselves through appropriate institutional design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103500"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103499
Antonio Fatás , Bram Gootjes , Joseph Mawejje
Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success. Using data from 116 countries between 1984 and 2015, this paper studies the dynamic effects of fiscal rule adoption. It shows that although fiscal rules generally improve the cyclically adjusted primary balance, their effects depend on the time horizon under consideration and the context of adoption. In advanced economies and countries with strong political institutions, the effects strengthen over time. Conversely, in emerging markets and developing economies—especially those with weaker institutions—their impact tends to fade as time passes. The findings highlight the critical role of economic conditions and consensus building at the time of adoption. Specifically, fiscal rules introduced in times of economic hardship or under highly concentrated political power are often less effective in the medium term. Good design of fiscal rules is important, but it is no silver bullet.
{"title":"Dynamic effects of fiscal rules: Do initial conditions Matter?","authors":"Antonio Fatás , Bram Gootjes , Joseph Mawejje","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success. Using data from 116 countries between 1984 and 2015, this paper studies the dynamic effects of fiscal rule adoption. It shows that although fiscal rules generally improve the cyclically adjusted primary balance, their effects depend on the time horizon under consideration and the context of adoption. In advanced economies and countries with strong political institutions, the effects strengthen over time. Conversely, in emerging markets and developing economies—especially those with weaker institutions—their impact tends to fade as time passes. The findings highlight the critical role of economic conditions and consensus building at the time of adoption. Specifically, fiscal rules introduced in times of economic hardship or under highly concentrated political power are often less effective in the medium term. Good design of fiscal rules is important, but it is no silver bullet.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103499"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145747969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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