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Dual Use Deception: How Technology Shapes Cooperation in International Relations 双重用途欺骗:技术如何影响国际关系中的合作
1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000140
Jane Vaynman, Tristan A. Volpe
Abstract Almost all technology is dual use to some degree: it has both civilian and military applications. This feature creates a dilemma for cooperation. States can design arms control institutions to curtail costly competition over some military technology. But they also do not want to limit valuable civilian uses. How does the dual use nature of technology shape the prospects for cooperation? We argue that the duality of technology presents a challenge not by its very existence but rather through the ways it alters information constraints on the design of arms control institutions. We characterize variation in technology along two dual use dimensions: (1) the ease of distinguishing military from civilian uses; and (2) the degree of integration within military enterprises and the civilian economy. Distinguishability drives the level of monitoring needed to detect violations. When a weapon is indistinguishable from its civilian counterpart, states must improve detection though intelligence collection or intrusive inspections. Integration sharpens the costs of disclosing information to another state. For highly integrated technology, demonstrating compliance could expose information about other capabilities, increasing the security risks from espionage. Together, these dimensions generate expectations about the specific information problems states face as they try to devise agreements over various technologies. We introduce a new qualitative data set to assess both variables and their impact on cooperation across all modern armament technologies. The findings lend strong support for the theory. Efforts to control emerging technologies should consider how variation in the dual use attributes shapes this tension between detection and disclosure.
几乎所有的技术在某种程度上都有双重用途:它既有民用用途,也有军事用途。这一特性给合作带来了困境。各国可以设计军备控制机构,以遏制在某些军事技术上代价高昂的竞争。但他们也不想限制有价值的民用用途。技术的双重用途如何影响合作前景?我们认为,技术的两重性之所以构成挑战,不是因为它本身的存在,而是因为它改变了对军备控制机构设计的信息限制的方式。我们沿着两个双重用途维度来描述技术的变化:(1)区分军用和民用的便利性;(2)军工企业内部与民用经济的融合程度。可区分性决定了检测违规所需的监控级别。当一种武器与民用武器无法区分时,国家必须通过情报收集或侵入性检查来改进探测。整合提高了向另一个国家披露信息的成本。对于高度集成的技术,展示遵从性可能会暴露有关其他功能的信息,从而增加来自间谍活动的安全风险。总之,这些维度产生了对国家在试图设计各种技术协议时所面临的特定信息问题的期望。我们引入了一个新的定性数据集来评估这两个变量及其对所有现代军备技术合作的影响。这些发现有力地支持了这一理论。控制新兴技术的努力应考虑双重用途属性的变化如何形成检测和披露之间的紧张关系。
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引用次数: 1
INO volume 77 issue 3 Cover and Front matter 国际出版组织第77卷第3期封面和封面问题
1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000164
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
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引用次数: 0
Structural covariance network of the hippocampus-amygdala complex in medication-naïve patients with first-episode major depressive disorder. 药物治疗无效的首发重度抑郁症患者的海马-杏仁核复合体结构协方差网络。
1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-15 eCollection Date: 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/psyrad/kkac023
Lianqing Zhang, Xinyue Hu, Yongbo Hu, Mengyue Tang, Hui Qiu, Ziyu Zhu, Yingxue Gao, Hailong Li, Weihong Kuang, Weidong Ji

Background: The hippocampus and amygdala are densely interconnected structures that work together in multiple affective and cognitive processes that are important to the etiology of major depressive disorder (MDD). Each of these structures consists of several heterogeneous subfields. We aim to explore the topologic properties of the volume-based intrinsic network within the hippocampus-amygdala complex in medication-naïve patients with first-episode MDD.

Methods: High-resolution T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans were acquired from 123 first-episode, medication-naïve, and noncomorbid MDD patients and 81 age-, sex-, and education level-matched healthy control participants (HCs). The structural covariance network (SCN) was constructed for each group using the volumes of the hippocampal subfields and amygdala subregions; the weights of the edges were defined by the partial correlation coefficients between each pair of subfields/subregions, controlled for age, sex, education level, and intracranial volume. The global and nodal graph metrics were calculated and compared between groups.

Results: Compared with HCs, the SCN within the hippocampus-amygdala complex in patients with MDD showed a shortened mean characteristic path length, reduced modularity, and reduced small-worldness index. At the nodal level, the left hippocampal tail showed increased measures of centrality, segregation, and integration, while nodes in the left amygdala showed decreased measures of centrality, segregation, and integration in patients with MDD compared with HCs.

Conclusion: Our results provide the first evidence of atypical topologic characteristics within the hippocampus-amygdala complex in patients with MDD using structure network analysis. It provides more delineate mechanism of those two structures that underlying neuropathologic process in MDD.

背景:海马体和杏仁核是紧密相连的结构,它们在多个情感和认知过程中共同发挥作用,对重度抑郁障碍(MDD)的病因非常重要。这些结构中的每一个都由多个不同的子领域组成。我们的目的是探索药物治疗无效的首发 MDD 患者海马-杏仁核复合体内基于容积的内在网络的拓扑特性。方法:我们采集了 123 名首发、药物治疗无效、无合并症的 MDD 患者和 81 名年龄、性别和教育水平相匹配的健康对照参与者(HCs)的高分辨率 T1 加权磁共振成像扫描结果。利用海马亚场和杏仁核亚区的体积构建了每组的结构协方差网络(SCN);边缘的权重由每对亚场/亚区之间的偏相关系数定义,并与年龄、性别、教育程度和颅内体积相匹配。计算全局图和节点图指标,并进行组间比较:结果:与普通人相比,MDD患者海马-杏仁核复合体内的SCN平均特征路径长度缩短,模块化程度降低,小世界指数降低。在节点水平上,与正常人相比,MDD 患者左侧海马尾部的中心性、分离性和整合性均有所提高,而左侧杏仁核的节点的中心性、分离性和整合性均有所降低:我们的研究结果首次利用结构网络分析法证明了 MDD 患者海马-杏仁核复合体内的非典型拓扑特征。结论:我们的研究结果首次利用结构网络分析法证明了 MDD 患者海马-杏仁核复合体内的非典型拓扑特征,并进一步阐明了这两个结构在 MDD 神经病理过程中的作用机制。
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引用次数: 0
The Fiscal State in Africa: Evidence from a Century of Growth 非洲的财政状况:来自一个世纪增长的证据
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818322000285
Thilo N. H. Albers, Morten Jerven, Marvin Suesse
Abstract What is the level of state capacity in developing countries today, and what have been its drivers over the past century? We construct a comprehensive new data set of tax and revenue collection for forty-six African polities from 1900 to 2015. Our data show that polities in Africa have been characterized by strong growth in fiscal capacity on average, but that substantial heterogeneity exists. The empirical analysis reveals that canonical state-building factors such as democratic institutions and interstate warfare have limited power to explain these divergent growth paths. On the other hand, accounting for the relationship between African polities and the international environment—through the availability of external finance and the legacy of colonialism—is key to understanding their differing investments in fiscal capacity. These insights add important nuances to established theories of state building. Not only can the availability of external finance deter investment in fiscal capacity, but it also moderates the efficacy of canonical state-building factors.
今天发展中国家的国家能力水平是什么?在过去的一个世纪里,是什么推动了发展中国家的能力水平?我们构建了一个全面的新数据集,涵盖了从1900年到2015年的46个非洲国家的税收和收入。我们的数据显示,非洲各国政策的特点是财政能力平均强劲增长,但存在巨大的异质性。实证分析表明,典型的国家建设因素,如民主制度和国家间战争,对解释这些不同的增长路径的作用有限。另一方面,考虑非洲政治与国际环境之间的关系——通过外部融资的可用性和殖民主义的遗产——是理解它们在财政能力方面不同投资的关键。这些见解为已确立的国家建设理论增添了重要的细微差别。外部融资的可获得性不仅会阻碍财政能力投资,而且还会调节规范国家建设因素的功效。
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引用次数: 12
Do Politically Irrelevant Events Cause Conflict? The Cross-continental Effects of European Professional Football on Protests in Africa 与政治无关的事件会引发冲突吗?欧洲职业足球对非洲抗议活动的跨大陆影响
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-25 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818322000261
Kyosuke Kikuta, Mamoru Uesugi
Abstract We examine whether politically irrelevant events can cause conflicts, by analyzing the effects of professional football games in Europe on protests in Africa—an unintended spillover across the continents. By expanding psychological theories, we argue that the outcomes of the football games in Europe can affect African people's subjective evaluation of domestic politicians, which in turn can trigger protests. By exploiting as-if random variation in the results of 15,102 close football games conditional on betting odds, we find that compared to draw games, close losses of African players’ teams increase peaceful protests in their original countries while not changing the likelihood of riots or armed conflicts. The effect is particularly large for non-ethnic protests targeted at a central government. Close losses also temporarily decrease people's trust in their country's leader. By contrast, close victories do not have equivalent or compensating effects on protests or public opinion. These results suggest asymmetric misattribution: people in Africa unreasonably blame domestic politicians for bad luck in European football games, prompting protests; but they do not credit politicians with football victories.
摘要我们通过分析欧洲职业足球比赛对非洲抗议活动的影响,研究了与政治无关的事件是否会引发冲突——这是一种意外的跨大陆蔓延。通过扩展心理学理论,我们认为欧洲足球比赛的结果会影响非洲人民对国内政客的主观评价,而这反过来又会引发抗议。通过利用15102场以投注赔率为条件的势均力敌足球比赛结果的随机变化,我们发现,与平局比赛相比,非洲球员球队的势均力失利增加了他们原来国家的和平抗议,同时没有改变骚乱或武装冲突的可能性。这种影响对于针对中央政府的非种族抗议活动尤其严重。势均力敌的损失也暂时降低了人们对国家领导人的信任。相比之下,势均力敌的胜利对抗议或公众舆论没有同等或补偿作用。这些结果表明了不对称的错误归因:非洲人民不合理地指责国内政客在欧洲足球比赛中运气不佳,引发了抗议;但他们并不把足球胜利归功于政客。
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引用次数: 2
How International Organizations Change National Media Coverage of Human Rights 国际组织如何改变国家媒体对人权的报道
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-25 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818322000273
Stephen Chaudoin
Abstract How do international organizations change the discussion of human rights violations, and how does their message reach the broader public? I show that national media is a key conduit. I analyze media coverage from the Philippines to show that the content of media coverage of the “war on drugs” changed after a major decision by the International Criminal Court. The ICC increased the proportion of media coverage focusing on human rights by triggering contestation between pro- and anti-human-rights actors. Original survey experimental evidence shows that this coverage shift blunts the effect of ICC actions on support for the war on drugs. This highlights an indirect role for international organizations in shaping media coverage and helps explain why they have struggled to win public opinion battles. Though their actions amplify the voices of human rights supporters, media coverage concurrently amplifies the voices of their opponents, which can crowd out coverage that might otherwise have decreased support for problematic polices.
国际组织如何改变对侵犯人权行为的讨论,它们的信息如何传达给更广泛的公众?我指出,国家媒体是一个关键的渠道。我分析了菲律宾的媒体报道,发现在国际刑事法院做出重大裁决后,媒体对“毒品战争”的报道内容发生了变化。国际刑事法院通过引发亲人权人士和反人权人士之间的争论,增加了关注人权的媒体报道的比例。最初的调查实验证据表明,这种报道范围的转移削弱了国际刑事法院行动对支持毒品战争的影响。这凸显了国际组织在塑造媒体报道方面的间接作用,并有助于解释它们为何难以赢得舆论战。虽然他们的行动放大了人权支持者的声音,但媒体的报道同时放大了他们的反对者的声音,这可能会挤掉原本可能会减少对有问题政策支持的报道。
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引用次数: 1
Costly Concealment: Secret Foreign Policymaking, Transparency, and Credible Reassurance 代价高昂的隐瞒:秘密的外交政策制定、透明度和可信的保证
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-12 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818322000248
Brandon K. Yoder, William Spaniel
Abstract This article presents a formal model that shows how states can credibly reassure each other simply by maintaining a cooperative outward narrative. The reassurance literature to date has focused largely on costly signaling, whereby benign states must distinguish themselves by taking specific actions that hostile types would not. The mere lack of overtly expressed hostility without costly signals has been considered “cheap talk,” on the assumption that this behavior is costless for hostile states and thus uninformative. In contrast, this paper argues that maintaining a cooperative façade while secretly formulating and executing exploitative policies carries inherent trade-offs, and thus constitutes a credible reassurance signal. Foreign policy planning and implementation requires communication among various individuals, groups, and organizations, which has some probability of being observed and punished by outside actors. Yet efforts to conceal the policymaking process and reduce this probability are costly—they require investments in internal monitoring and restrictions on internal communication that can substantially degrade policy outcomes. Thus, to the extent that a state's foreign policymaking process is transparent—that is, that concealing internal communications is difficult—the absence of positive signals of hostility is a credible signal of its benign intentions. The argument is illustrated with a case study of German reassurance signals during the July Crisis preceding World War I.
摘要本文提出了一个形式模型,展示了各国如何通过保持合作的外部叙事来可信地安抚彼此。迄今为止,安抚文献主要集中在代价高昂的信号上,即良性国家必须通过采取敌对类型不会采取的具体行动来区分自己。仅仅缺乏公开表达的敌意而没有代价高昂的信号就被认为是“廉价的谈话”,因为人们认为这种行为对敌对国家来说是没有代价的,因此没有信息。相比之下,本文认为,在秘密制定和执行剥削性政策的同时,保持合作的外表会带来内在的权衡,因此构成了一个可信的保证信号。外交政策的规划和实施需要各种个人、团体和组织之间的沟通,这有可能受到外部行为者的观察和惩罚。然而,掩盖决策过程和降低这种可能性的努力代价高昂——它们需要对内部监控进行投资,并限制内部沟通,这可能会大大降低政策结果。因此,在某种程度上,一个国家的外交决策过程是透明的——也就是说,隐藏内部沟通是困难的——没有积极的敌对信号是其善意的可信信号。第一次世界大战前七月危机期间德国安抚信号的案例研究说明了这一论点。
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引用次数: 0
Index 指数
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-11 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818300012819
L. Knauer, Susan W. Blank, Jessie R. Janjigian
In the following index, agenda items considered by major organizations are listed by topic rather than under the organ in which they are discussed. Committees and commissions of major organizations have been listed independently except in the case of the seven main committees of the General Assembly which are listed under the heading General Assembly. References to organs of smaller organizations have been listed under the organization. For statements of policy made by national representatives, refer to the subheadings under the representative's country. Abbreviations in parentheses following an entry indicate the larger body of which it is a part. The pagination of Volume XIX is as follows: Number 1, Winter 1965, pp. 1-162; Number 2, Spring 1965, pp. 163-366; Number 3, Summer 1965, pp. 367-846; Number 4, Autumn 1965, pp. 847-1094.
在以下索引中,主要组织审议的议程项目是按主题列出的,而不是按讨论的机构列出的。各主要组织的委员会和委员会都是独立列出的,但在大会标题下列出的大会七个主要委员会除外。提及较小组织的机关已列在该组织之下。关于国家代表的政策声明,请参阅代表所在国家下的副标题。条目后面括号中的缩写表示条目所属的较大主体。第十九卷的页码如下:编号1,1965年冬季,第1-162页;编号2,1965年春季,第163-366页;第3期,1965年夏季,第367-846页;第4期,1965年秋季,第847-1094页。
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引用次数: 0
Compensatory Layering and the Birth of the Multipurpose Multilateral IGO in the Americas 补偿分层与美洲多用途多边政府间组织的诞生
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-10 DOI: 10.1017/S002081832200025X
Tom Long, C. Schulz
Abstract International organizations come in many shapes and sizes. Within this institutional gamut, the multipurpose multilateral intergovernmental organization (MMIGO) plays a central role. This institutional form is often traced to the creation of the League of Nations, but in fact the first MMIGO emerged in the Western Hemisphere at the close of the nineteenth century. Originally modeled on a single-issue European public international union, the Commercial Bureau of the American Republics evolved into the multipurpose, multilateral Pan American Union (PAU). Contrary to prominent explanations of institutional genesis, the PAU's design did not result from functional needs nor from the blueprints of a hegemonic power. Advancing a recent synthesis between historical and rational institutionalism, we argue that the first MMIGO arose through a process of compensatory layering: a mechanism whereby a sequence of bargains over control and scope leads to gradual but transformative institutional change. We expect compensatory layering to occur when an organization is focal, power asymmetries among members of that organization are large, and preferences over institutional design diverge. Our empirical and theoretical contributions demonstrate the value a more global international relations (IR) perspective can bring to the study of institutional design. international relations (IR) scholars have long noted that international organizations provide smaller states with voice opportunities; our account suggests those spaces may be of smaller states’ own making.
国际组织有多种形式和规模。在这一机构范围内,多用途多边政府间组织发挥着中心作用。这种机构形式通常可以追溯到国际联盟的创立,但事实上,第一个多边投资担保组织是在19世纪末出现在西半球的。美洲共和国商务局最初以单一议题的欧洲公共国际联盟为蓝本,后来演变成多目的、多边的泛美联盟(PAU)。与对制度起源的突出解释相反,PAU的设计既不是出于功能需求,也不是出于霸权国家的蓝图。我们提出了历史制度主义和理性制度主义之间的最新综合,认为第一个MMIGO是通过补偿分层的过程产生的:这是一种机制,通过控制和范围的一系列讨价还价导致渐进但变革性的制度变革。我们预计,当一个组织是焦点组织,组织成员之间的权力不对称很大,对制度设计的偏好出现分歧时,就会出现补偿分层。我们的实证和理论贡献表明,更具全球性的国际关系视角可以为制度设计研究带来价值。国际关系学者早就注意到,国际组织为小国提供了发声的机会;我们的报道表明,这些空间可能是较小的州自己制造的。
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引用次数: 0
The Dark Matter of World Politics: System Trust, Summits, and State Personhood 世界政治的暗物质:体系信任、峰会和国家人格
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-08-22 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818322000169
Minseon Ku, Jennifer Mitzen
Abstract International relations theory has had a trust revival, with scholars focusing on how trust can enhance interpersonal cooperation attempts between leaders. We propose there is another type of trust at play in world politics. International system trust is a feeling of confidence in the international social order, which is indexed especially by trust in its central unit, state persons. System trust anchors ontological security, and its presence is an unstated assumption of the international relations trust scholarship. In this paper we conceptualize system trust. We illuminate its presence by flagging the production of state personhood in a familiar case in international relations trust scholarship, the 1985 Geneva Summit between Reagan and Gorbachev. Interpersonal and system trust perspectives highlight different aspects of the same summit. The juxtaposition suggests new lines of research into the production of state persons in diplomacy, the relationship between interpersonal and system trust, and the impact of the rise of personalistic/patrimonial leadership on diplomacy and international order.
国际关系理论出现了信任复兴,学者们关注信任如何促进领导人之间的人际合作尝试。我们建议在世界政治中存在另一种类型的信任。国际制度信任是一种对国际社会秩序的信心,特别是对国际社会秩序的中心单位——国家主体的信任。系统信任是本体论安全的基础,它的存在是国际关系信任研究的一个未言明的假设。本文提出了系统信任的概念。我们通过在国际关系信托研究中一个熟悉的案例——1985年里根和戈尔巴乔夫之间的日内瓦峰会——中标记国家人格的产生,来阐明它的存在。人际信任和系统信任的观点强调了同一峰会的不同方面。这种并置为研究外交中国家人物的产生、人际信任与制度信任之间的关系,以及个人主义/世袭式领导的兴起对外交和国际秩序的影响提供了新的思路。
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引用次数: 3
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International Organization
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