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Trading Places, Trading Platforms: The Geography of Trade Policy Realignment 交易场所、交易平台:贸易政策调整的地理学
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818321000217
Bryan Schonfeld
What motivates politicians and political parties to shift their positioning on an issue? Focusing on the case of trade policy in countries with advanced economies and plurality electoral systems, I argue that the relative positioning of parties on an existing issue can change even when the preferences of the key actors (voters and politicians) are held constant, and even when party leaders continue to represent the same constituencies. In advanced plurality countries, college-educated voters support free trade, and high-density constituencies are predominantly represented by Left incumbents. As college-educated workers migrate to high-density constituencies in pursuit of higher wages, Left incumbents increasingly embrace free trade, while Right incumbents take more protectionist positions. I provide empirical support for several observable implications of my theory.
是什么促使政治家和政党在一个问题上改变立场?我将重点放在经济发达国家和实行多元化选举制度的国家的贸易政策上,认为即使关键行为者(选民和政治家)的偏好保持不变,即使政党领导人继续代表相同的选区,政党在现有问题上的相对定位也会发生变化。在先进的多元化国家,受过大学教育的选民支持自由贸易,高密度选区主要由左翼现任者代表。随着受过大学教育的工人为了追求更高的工资而迁移到人口密集的选区,左派在职者越来越多地支持自由贸易,而右派在职者则采取更多的保护主义立场。我为我的理论的几个可观察到的含义提供了实证支持。
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引用次数: 0
Council of Europe 欧洲委员会
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-06-18 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818300010936
D. Ferrari
The first part of the thirteenth ordinary session of the Consultative Assembly was held from April 24 to 28, 1961, under the chairmanship of Mr. Per Federspiel (Danish Moderate Liberal) who was unanimously re-elected to that position. Mr. Emile Liquard (French U.N.R.), rapporteur df the Bureau and Standing Committee, announced to the Assembly that pursuant to discussions at the twelfth ordinary session the Turkish Foreign Minister had been invited to participate at the thirteenth session; however, in view of the present political activity in that country the Foreign Minister had stated that he would be unable to attend. Mr. Liquard also noted that the Swiss and Israeli observers were subsequently to be seated in the Assembly hall. The Bureau and Standing Committee recommended that a draft resolution presented by Mr. Peter Kirk (British Conservative) on the situation in Spain should be referred to the Political Committee for report and to the Committee on Non-Represented Nations for an opinion; the Assembly adopted the proposal and also unanimously approved another proposal, suggested by the Committee of Ministers, that Cyprus be invited to become a full member of the Council of Europe.
协商会议第十三届常会第一期会议于1961年4月24日至28日举行,由Per Federspiel先生(丹麦温和派自由派)担任主席,他一致连任。主席团和常设委员会报告员Emile Liquard先生(法语国家联盟)向大会宣布,根据第十二届常会的讨论,土耳其外交部长应邀参加第十三届会议;然而,鉴于该国目前的政治活动,外交部长表示他将无法出席。利奎德先生还指出,瑞士和以色列观察员随后将在大会堂就座。主席团和常设委员会建议,应将彼得·柯克先生(英国保守党)提出的关于西班牙局势的决议草案提交政治委员会报告,并提交无代表国家委员会征求意见;大会通过了这项提议,并一致通过了部长委员会提出的另一项提议,即邀请塞浦路斯成为欧洲委员会的正式成员。
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引用次数: 0
Crude Calculations: Productivity and the Profitability of Conquest 粗略的计算:生产力和征服的利润
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-06-09 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000291
A. Coe, Jonathan N. Markowitz
Abstract For many centuries, conquest was commonplace, and its attractiveness was central to the character of international politics. Why has it declined? Existing theories cannot explain why powerful countries no longer conquer states with easily extractable wealth. We develop an explanation based on the relationship between a potential conqueror's economic productivity and its ability to profit from conquest. Productivity has opposing effects on conquest's profitability: it raises the opportunity cost of each asset diverted to conquest, but also reduces the quantity of assets required for conquest. The net effect is determined by the composition of investment in innovation. We document that since at least 1950 investment has been predominantly aimed at civilian, not military innovations, so that rising productivity should reduce conquest's net profitability. Using cost analyses of comparable wars, we estimate bounds on the profitability of conquering the oil and gas reserves of the Persian Gulf, a very tempting target, for the United States and Iraq, two potential conquerors of widely differing productivity. Though both mechanisms operate, we find that the net effect of higher productivity is to reduce the profits from conquest. Moreover, this net effect is large enough to render conquest generally unprofitable for contemporary high-productivity states.
摘要几个世纪以来,征服司空见惯,其吸引力是国际政治特征的核心。为什么它下降了?现有的理论无法解释为什么强大的国家不再征服拥有可轻易提取财富的国家。我们根据潜在征服者的经济生产力与其从征服中获利的能力之间的关系做出了解释。生产力对征服的盈利能力有相反的影响:它提高了被转移到征服的每项资产的机会成本,但也减少了征服所需的资产数量。净效应由创新投资的构成决定。我们记录到,至少自1950年以来,投资主要针对民用,而不是军事创新,因此生产力的提高应该会降低征服的净利润率。通过对可比战争的成本分析,我们估计了征服波斯湾石油和天然气储量的盈利能力界限,波斯湾是美国和伊拉克这两个生产力差异很大的潜在征服者的一个非常诱人的目标。尽管这两种机制都在运作,但我们发现,更高生产力的净效应是减少征服带来的利润。此外,这种净效应大到足以使当代高生产力国家的征服普遍无利可图。
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引用次数: 1
Stopping the Violence but Blocking the Peace: Dilemmas of Foreign-Imposed Nation Building After Ethnic War 止暴阻和:民族战争后外国强制建国的困境
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-05-21 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000266
Kevin Russell, Nicholas Sambanis
Abstract Can third parties build nations after ethno-sectarian war? We provide a positive theory of peace building that highlights trade-offs that are inherent in any foreign intervention, narrowing the conditions for success even when interventions are well resourced and even-handed. A “sectarian” dilemma arises because peace must rely on local leaders, but leaders who earned their reputations through ethno-sectarian conflict have no incentive to stop playing the ethnic card and will not provide public goods. Intervention can shift those incentives if it stops ethnic violence and rebuilds state institutions. But an “institutional” dilemma arises if intervention crowds out local leaders, limiting state legitimacy and constraining the pace with which state building unfolds. The window for a lengthier, slower pace of foreign-led state building will close due to its own success as the population switches from ethnic to national identification, creating a “sovereignty” dilemma that pushes third parties out. If intervention ends before institutions can deepen leader incentives for a unifying nationalism, violence will likely recur. We provide an “intervention diagnostic” that reflects these three dilemmas, which are a function of the type of intervention, local political development, and the identity of the intervener. In deciding whether to intervene, the limits of building self-enforcing peace should be weighed against the likelihood and costs of ongoing violence.
民族-宗派战争后第三方能否建立国家?我们提供了一个积极的和平建设理论,强调了任何外国干预所固有的权衡,缩小了成功的条件,即使干预是资源充足和公平的。“宗派”困境之所以出现,是因为和平必须依靠地方领导人,但那些通过民族-宗派冲突赢得声誉的领导人没有动力停止打民族牌,也不会提供公共产品。如果能制止种族暴力并重建国家机构,干预就能改变这些动机。但是,如果干预排挤了地方领导人,限制了国家的合法性,限制了国家建设的步伐,就会出现“制度性”困境。随着缅甸人民从民族认同转向国家认同,造成了一种将第三方排挤出去的“主权”困境,外国主导的国家建设进程更长、更慢的窗口期将因其自身的成功而关闭。如果在机构能够加深领导人统一民族主义的动机之前,干预就结束了,暴力可能会再次发生。我们提供了一个反映这三个困境的“干预诊断”,这三个困境是干预类型、当地政治发展和干预者身份的函数。在决定是否进行干预时,应将建立自我强制和平的限制与持续暴力的可能性和代价进行权衡。
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引用次数: 4
State Formation in Korea and Japan, 400–800 CE: Emulation and Learning, Not Bellicist Competition 公元400–800年韩日国家形成:模仿与学习,而非贝利斯特竞争
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-05-14 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000254
Chin-Hao Huang, David C. Kang
Abstract State formation occurred in Korea and Japan 1,000 years before it did in Europe, and it occurred for reasons of emulation and learning, not bellicist competition. State formation in historical East Asia occurred under a hegemonic system in which war was relatively rare, not under a balance-of-power system with regular existential threats. Korea and Japan emerged as states between the fifth and ninth centuries CE and existed for centuries thereafter with centralized bureaucratic control defined over territory and administrative capacity to tax their populations, field large militaries, and provide extensive public goods. They created these institutions not to wage war or suppress revolt: the longevity of dynasties in these countries is evidence of both the peacefulness of their region and their internal stability. Rather, Korea and Japan developed state institutions through emulation and learning from China. The elites of both copied Chinese civilization for reasons of prestige and domestic legitimacy in the competition between the court and the nobility.
韩国和日本的国家形成比欧洲早了1000年,而且是出于模仿和学习的原因,而不是好战的竞争。历史上东亚的国家形成是在战争相对较少的霸权体系下形成的,而不是在存在经常性威胁的权力平衡体系下形成的。韩国和日本在公元5世纪到9世纪之间作为国家出现,并在此后的几个世纪里一直存在着集中的官僚控制,控制着领土和行政能力,向人民征税,组建庞大的军队,并提供广泛的公共产品。他们建立这些机构不是为了发动战争或镇压叛乱:这些国家王朝的长寿证明了他们地区的和平和内部的稳定。相反,韩国和日本是通过模仿和学习中国发展国家制度的。在宫廷与贵族的竞争中,两国的精英为了声望和国内合法性而复制中国文明。
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引用次数: 8
Countering Violent Extremism and Radical Rhetoric 打击暴力极端主义和激进言论
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-05-06 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000242
Tamar Mitts
Abstract How do extremist sympathizers respond to counter-radicalization efforts? Over the past decade, programs to counter violent extremism have mushroomed around the world, but little is known of their effectiveness. This study uses social media data to examine how counter-radicalization efforts shape engagement with extremist groups in the online world. Matching geolocated Twitter data on Islamic State sympathizers with granular information on counter-extremism activities in the United States, I find that, rather than deradicalizing, these efforts led Islamic State sympathizers to act strategically to avoid detection. After counter-extremism activities, the group's supporters on Twitter who were in the vicinity of these events began self-censoring expressions of support for the Islamic State, altered profile images and screen names, and encouraged followers to migrate to Telegram, an encrypted network not viewable by the public. These findings reveal previously unknown patterns in the effects of counter-extremism programs in the digital era.
摘要极端主义同情者如何应对反激进化的努力?在过去的十年里,打击暴力极端主义的项目在世界各地如雨后春笋般涌现,但人们对其有效性知之甚少。这项研究使用社交媒体数据来研究反激进化努力如何影响网络世界中与极端组织的接触。将伊斯兰国同情者的地理位置推特数据与美国反极端主义活动的详细信息相匹配,我发现,这些努力非但没有去极端化,反而导致伊斯兰国的同情者采取战略行动,以避免被发现。在反极端主义活动之后,该组织在推特上的支持者在这些活动附近开始自我审查支持伊斯兰国的言论,更改个人资料图像和屏幕名称,并鼓励追随者迁移到Telegram,这是一个公众无法查看的加密网络。这些发现揭示了数字时代反极端主义计划的影响模式。
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引用次数: 7
Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Institutions 贸易自由化和劳动力市场制度
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-05-05 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000138
Leonardo Baccini, Mattia Guidi, A. Poletti, A. Yildirim
Abstract While the firm-level distributional consequences of market liberalization are well understood, previous studies have paid only limited attention to how variations in domestic institutions across countries affect the winners and losers from opening up to trade. We argue that the presence of coordinated wage-bargaining institutions, which impose a ceiling on wage increases, and state-subsidized vocational training, which creates a large supply of highly skilled workers, generate labor market frictions. Upward wage rigidity, in particular, helps smaller firms weather the rising competition and increasing labor costs triggered by trade liberalization. We test this hypothesis using a firm-level data set of European Union countries, which includes more than 800,000 manufacturing firms between 2003 and 2014. We find that, for productive firms, gains from trade are 20 percent larger in countries with liberal market economies than they are in coordinated market economies. Symmetrically, less productive firms in coordinated market economies experience significantly smaller revenue losses compared to liberal market economies. We show that both the presence of an institutionalized wage ceiling and the availability of subsidized vocational training are key mechanisms for reducing the reallocation of revenue from unproductive to productive firms in coordinated market economies compared to liberal market economies. In line with our theory, we find that wages and employment in liberalized industries increase differentially across both types of labor markets. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that trade liberalization triggers a differential demand for redistribution at the individual level across different labor markets, which is in line with our firm-level analysis.
虽然市场自由化对企业层面的分配后果已经得到了很好的理解,但以往的研究对各国国内制度的差异如何影响贸易开放的赢家和输家的关注有限。我们认为,协调一致的工资谈判机构(对工资增长设置上限)和国家补贴的职业培训(创造了大量高技能工人)的存在,产生了劳动力市场的摩擦。工资刚性的上升尤其有助于小企业应对贸易自由化引发的竞争加剧和劳动力成本上升。我们使用欧盟国家的企业层面数据集来检验这一假设,其中包括2003年至2014年间超过80万家制造业企业。我们发现,对于生产性企业来说,自由市场经济国家的贸易收益比协调市场经济国家的贸易收益高出20%。与之对称的是,与自由市场经济相比,协调市场经济中生产率较低的企业所经历的收入损失要小得多。我们表明,与自由市场经济相比,在协调市场经济中,制度化的工资上限和可获得的补贴职业培训是减少收入从非生产性企业向生产性企业再分配的关键机制。根据我们的理论,我们发现,在两种类型的劳动力市场中,自由化行业的工资和就业增长是不同的。最后,我们提供了启发性的证据,表明贸易自由化在不同劳动力市场的个人层面引发了对再分配的不同需求,这与我们的企业层面分析一致。
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引用次数: 5
Concealing Conflict Markets: How Rebels and Firms Use State Institutions to Launder Wartime Trade 隐藏冲突市场:反叛分子和企业如何利用国家机构开展战时贸易
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-04-29 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000205
Rachel Sweet
Abstract Although rebel groups are players on the international stage, little is known about their financial strategies at this scale. Existing research suggests that rebels succeed in cross-border trade by using informal networks that evade state authority. Yet rebels face a critical challenge: they operate in a normative environment that values state recognition and penalizes their illegitimate status. New evidence reveals that rebels can overcome this barrier and better connect to global economies not by evading the state but by infiltrating its institutions. Drawing on unprecedented data—the internal records of armed groups and their trading partners—I examine how rebels use state agencies in conflict zones to manufacture a legal cover for wartime trade. By using state agencies to provide false certification, rebels can place the stamp of state on their trade deals. This strategy of legal appropriation is a fundamentally different model of how conflict markets skirt sanctions and connect to global buyers. I develop a framework for how this strategy works that traces how international sovereignty norms and sanctions regimes create incentives for rebels, firms, and bureaucrats to coordinate around this legal veneer across the supply chain. The framework and evidence contribute theoretical and policy understandings for rebel governance, state building and fragmentation, and illicit global markets.
摘要尽管反叛组织是国际舞台上的参与者,但人们对其如此规模的财务战略知之甚少。现有研究表明,反叛分子通过利用逃避国家权威的非正式网络,在跨境贸易中取得了成功。然而,反叛分子面临着一个严峻的挑战:他们在一个重视国家承认并惩罚其非法身份的规范环境中运作。新的证据表明,反叛分子可以克服这一障碍,更好地与全球经济建立联系,而不是通过躲避国家,而是通过渗透其机构。根据前所未有的数据——武装组织及其贸易伙伴的内部记录——我研究了反叛分子如何利用冲突地区的国家机构为战时贸易制造合法掩护。通过利用国家机构提供虚假证明,反叛分子可以在他们的贸易协议上盖上国家的印章。这种合法挪用的策略是冲突市场如何绕过制裁并与全球买家建立联系的一种根本不同的模式。我为这一战略的运作制定了一个框架,追溯了国际主权规范和制裁制度如何激励反叛分子、公司和官僚在整个供应链中围绕这一法律表面进行协调。该框架和证据有助于对叛军治理、国家建设和分裂以及非法全球市场的理论和政策理解。
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引用次数: 1
Four Conceptions of Authority in International Relations 国际关系中的四个权威概念
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000230
Jorg Kustermans, Rikkert Horemans
Abstract There is increasing agreement that states and other political actors on the world stage sometimes achieve international authority. However, there is less agreement about the nature and functioning of international authority relations. What determines whether an actor will be recognized as an authoritative actor? And what are the effects thereof? In this essay, we identify four distinct conceptions of authority in the study of international relations: authority as contract, authority as domination, authority as impression, and authority as consecration. Consideration of the typology leads to two important insights. First, the phenomenon of authority has an essentially experiential dimension. Subordinate actors’ emotional experience of authority determines their response to authority and thus also has a fundamental impact on the stability of authority. Second, the emergence of forms of international authority does not entail, at least not necessarily, the weakening of the sovereignty of states, but can equally be argued to strengthen it.
人们越来越一致认为,世界舞台上的国家和其他政治行动者有时会获得国际权威。然而,对于国际权威关系的性质和运作,人们的看法却不太一致。是什么决定了一个演员是否会被公认为权威演员?其影响是什么?在国际关系研究中,我们提出了四个不同的权威概念:权威是契约,权威是支配,权威是印象,权威是奉献。对类型学的思考产生了两个重要的见解。首先,权威现象具有本质上的经验维度。下属行动者对权威的情感体验决定了他们对权威的反应,因此也对权威的稳定性产生了根本性的影响。第二,各种形式的国际权威的出现并不意味着,至少不一定意味着削弱国家主权,但同样可以说是为了加强国家主权。
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引用次数: 3
Pool or Duel? Cooperation and Competition Among International Organizations 台球还是决斗?国际组织间的合作与竞争
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000229
Richard Clark
Abstract International organizations (IOs) increasingly pool resources and expertise. Under what conditions do they pool rather than compete when their activities overlap? Drawing on elite interviews, I argue that even though many cooperation decisions are made by staff possessing high degrees of autonomy from member state principals, IOs are more likely to pool resources when their leading stakeholders are geopolitically aligned. Regardless of whether member states directly oversee the negotiation of these arrangements, staff design policies that are amenable to major stakeholders. I test this argument with regression analysis of an original data set that documents patterns of co-financing and information sharing among IOs in the development issue area. I further supplement these tests with an elite survey experiment deployed via LinkedIn to bureaucrats from various development IOs. Across the board, I find evidence consistent with my theory.
国际组织越来越多地汇集资源和专业知识。在什么情况下,当他们的活动重叠时,他们会联合而不是竞争?通过对精英的采访,我认为,尽管许多合作决策是由成员国负责人拥有高度自主权的员工做出的,但当主要利益相关者在地缘政治上结盟时,国际组织更有可能汇集资源。无论成员国是否直接监督这些安排的谈判,工作人员都要设计适合主要利益攸关方的政策。我通过对原始数据集的回归分析来验证这一观点,该数据集记录了IOs在开发问题领域的联合融资和信息共享模式。我进一步补充了这些测试,并通过LinkedIn对来自不同开发IOs的官员进行了精英调查实验。总的来说,我找到了与我的理论一致的证据。
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引用次数: 22
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International Organization
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