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Brexit Dilemmas: Shaping Postwithdrawal Relations with a Leaving State 英国脱欧困境:与脱欧国塑造脱欧后关系
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-10-14 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000412
I. Jurado, Sandra León, Stefanie Walter
Abstract How do voters want their governments to respond when another country unilaterally withdraws from an international institution? We distinguish between negotiation approaches that vary in the degree to which they accommodate the withdrawing state's demands and argue that negotiation preferences are shaped by two issues. The first is voters’ exposure to the costs and benefits of accommodation. This exposure varies across issues, and we argue that citizens will generally prefer non-accommodation on zero-sum issues, but support more accommodation on cooperation issues, where non-accommodation puts existing cooperation gains at risk. Second, withdrawal negotiations create precedents, and citizens should therefore be less willing to accommodate the more they are concerned about the ripple effects of accommodation on the institution's stability. These concerns also confront citizens with two types of dilemmas depending on how favorably they view the institution themselves. To test our argument, we use survey evidence and a conjoint experiment conducted in Germany and Spain during the Brexit negotiations. We find that respondents overall are more willing to accommodate the UK on cooperation issues than on zero-sum issues, but also find evidence that Euroskeptics and Europhiles confront different issue-specific dilemmas. Our paper contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics surrounding the challenges to multilateralism that have proliferated in recent years.
当另一个国家单方面退出一个国际机构时,选民希望他们的政府如何回应?我们区分了在适应退出国要求的程度上不同的谈判方式,并认为谈判偏好是由两个问题决定的。首先是选民对住宿成本和收益的了解。不同问题的暴露程度不同,我们认为,公民通常更倾向于在零和问题上不妥协,但在合作问题上支持更多的妥协,因为不妥协会使现有的合作成果面临风险。其次,退欧谈判创造了先例,因此,公民越担心迁就对该机构稳定性产生的连锁反应,就越不愿意迁就。这些担忧也使公民面临两种困境,这取决于他们对机构本身的看法。为了验证我们的观点,我们使用了调查证据,并在英国脱欧谈判期间在德国和西班牙进行了一项联合实验。我们发现,总体而言,受访者在合作问题上比在零和问题上更愿意迁就英国,但我们也发现,有证据表明,欧洲怀疑论者和亲欧派在具体问题上面临不同的困境。我们的论文有助于更好地理解围绕近年来激增的多边主义挑战的动态。
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引用次数: 5
The Effects of Naming and Shaming on Public Support for Compliance with International Agreements: An Experimental Analysis of the Paris Agreement 点名和羞辱对公众支持遵守国际协定的影响——基于《巴黎协定》的实验分析
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000394
D. Tingley, Michael Tomz
Abstract How does naming and shaming affect public support for compliance with international agreements? We investigated this question by conducting survey experiments about the Paris Agreement, which relies on social pressure for enforcement. Our experiments, administered to national samples in the United States, produced three sets of findings. First, shaming by foreign countries shifted domestic public opinion in favor of compliance, increasing the political incentive to honor the Paris Agreement. Second, the effects of shaming varied with the behavior of the target. Shaming was more effective against partial compliers than against targets that took no action or honored their obligations completely. Moreover, even partial compliers managed to reduce the effects of shaming through the strategic use of counter-rhetoric. Third, identity moderated responses to shaming. Shaming by allies was not significantly more effective than shaming by non-allies, but Democrats were more receptive to shaming than Republicans. Overall, our experiments expose both the power and the limits of shaming as a strategy for enforcing the Paris Agreement. At the same time, they advance our understanding of the most significant environmental problem facing the planet.
摘要点名羞辱如何影响公众对遵守国际协议的支持?我们通过对《巴黎协定》进行调查实验来调查这个问题,该协定的执行依赖于社会压力。我们对美国的国家样本进行了实验,得出了三组发现。首先,外国的羞辱使国内舆论转而支持遵守,增加了遵守《巴黎协定》的政治动机。其次,羞辱的效果随着目标的行为而变化。羞辱对部分同谋者比对那些不采取行动或完全履行义务的目标更有效。此外,即使是部分同谋者也通过战略性地使用反言论来减少羞辱的影响。第三,身份调节了对羞辱的反应。盟友的羞辱并不比非盟友的羞辱更有效,但民主党人比共和党人更容易接受羞辱。总的来说,我们的实验暴露了羞辱作为执行《巴黎协定》战略的力量和局限性。与此同时,它们促进了我们对地球面临的最重大环境问题的理解。
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引用次数: 17
The Arbitrage Lobby: Theory and Evidence on Dual Exchange Rates 套利游说团:关于双重汇率的理论与证据
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-08-13 DOI: 10.1017/S002081832100031X
R. Gulotty, Dorothy Kronick
Abstract Foundational theories of trade politics emphasize a conflict between consumer welfare and protectionist lobbies. But these theories ignore other powerful lobbies that also shape trade policy. We propose a theory of trade distortion arising from conflict between consumer welfare and importer lobbies. We estimate the key parameter of the model—the government's weight on welfare—using original data from Venezuela, where Hugo Chávez used an exchange-rate subsidy to underwrite hundreds of billions of dollars of imports. Whereas estimates from traditional models would make Chávez look like a welfare maximizer, our results indicate that he implemented distortionary commercial policy to the benefit of special interests. Our analysis underscores the importance of tailoring workhorse models to account for differences in interest group configuration. The politics of trade policy is not reducible to the politics of protectionism.
贸易政治的基础理论强调消费者福利和保护主义游说之间的冲突。但这些理论忽略了其他同样影响贸易政策的强大游说团体。我们提出了一个由消费者福利和进口商游说之间的冲突引起的贸易扭曲理论。我们使用委内瑞拉的原始数据估计了该模型的关键参数——政府对福利的权重。委内瑞拉的乌戈·查韦斯利用汇率补贴为数千亿美元的进口提供担保。尽管传统模型的估计会让查韦斯看起来像一个福利最大化者,但我们的结果表明,他为了特殊利益而实施了扭曲的商业政策。我们的分析强调了调整主力模型以考虑利益集团配置差异的重要性。贸易政策的政治不能简化为保护主义的政治。
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引用次数: 3
Chinese Power and the State-Owned Enterprise 中国电力与国有企业
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000308
R. Stone, Yu Wang, Shu Yu
Abstract China has become a leading source of outward foreign direct investment (FDI), and the Chinese state exercises a unique degree of influence over its firms. We explore the patterns of political influence over FDI using a comprehensive firm-level data set on Chinese outward FDI from 2000 to 2013. Using six country-level measures of affinity for China, we find that state-owned and globally diversified firms appear to conform most closely to official guidance. Official investment directives and state visits link investments to state policies; Taiwan recognition and Dalai Lama meetings anchor our political interpretations; and UN General Assembly voting and temporary UN Security Council membership suggest that this intervention may be systematic. The results are robust to country, year, and sector fixed effects, and most do not hold for private or small firms. The results suggest that China uses FDI by prominent state-owned enterprises as an instrument to promote its foreign policy.
摘要中国已成为对外直接投资的主要来源,中国政府对其企业具有独特的影响力。我们使用2000年至2013年中国对外直接投资的综合企业级数据集,探讨了政治影响对外国直接投资的模式。使用六个国家层面的中国亲和力衡量标准,我们发现国有和全球多元化企业似乎最符合官方指导。官方投资指令和国事访问将投资与国家政策联系起来;台湾的承认和达赖喇嘛的会晤决定了我们的政治解读;联合国大会投票和联合国安理会临时成员资格表明,这种干预可能是系统性的。结果对国家、年份和行业的固定效应都是稳健的,大多数不适用于私营或小公司。研究结果表明,中国利用著名国有企业的外国直接投资作为促进其外交政策的工具。
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引用次数: 24
European Free Trade Association 欧洲自由贸易协会
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.1017/s002081830002470x
H. Hertig
An important item of discussion during the Autumn months of 1960 among the members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) was reported to be the question of association with the European Economic Community (EEC), but the press announced in October a “lack of progress” in resolving the problems encountered. The question was said to have been included in the issues taken up at the second ministerial meeting of the Council, held in Berne, Switzerland, on October 11 and 12, 1960. Mr. Max Petitpierre, president of the Swiss Confederation, reportedly stated in an address to the Council that, even if there was little prospect of an agreement between EEC and EFTA in the immediate future, it was imperative that the two organizations work together, not only for commercial and economic reasons, but also because of the mission that Europe was called on to discharge toward the newly independent countries. Since, however, an acceptable settlement with EEC seemed impossible in the near future, the Council determined that EFTA should proceed with its own plans. In pursuance of this decision, the Ministers decided to establish a consultative committee, representative of all aspects of economic activity, including labor, to advise on all facets of the activity of the Association. Also considered at the meeting was the possibility of an additional 10 percent tariff reduction to take effect as of January 1, 1961, to keep pace with the EEC cut scheduled for that date, but the Council concluded that too little time had elapsed since the first 20 percent tariff reductions on July 1, 1960, to make any modification of the timetable feasible at this time; it resolved, nevertheless, to re-examine the question early in 1961. The Ministers noted with satisfaction that the original tariff cuts had gone into operation without difficulty, and reasserted that the object of EFTA was not the creation of an inward-looking preferential bloc—for example, no restrictions on trade with third countries had been introduced with the creation of the group. EFTA offered to all trading nations, whether producers of industrial or agricultural products, stated the Council, the opportunities of an expanding market.
据报道,欧洲自由贸易联盟(EFTA)成员在1960年秋季讨论的一个重要项目是与欧洲经济共同体(EEC)的联系问题,但新闻界在10月宣布,在解决遇到的问题方面“缺乏进展”。据说这个问题已列入1960年10月11日和12日在瑞士伯尔尼举行的理事会第二次部长级会议所讨论的问题。据报道,瑞士联邦主席马克斯·佩蒂皮埃尔先生在向理事会发表的讲话中说,即使欧洲经济共同体和欧洲自由贸易联盟在不久的将来达成协议的可能性很小,但这两个组织必须合作,不仅是出于商业和经济原因,但也因为欧洲被要求向新独立的国家履行使命。然而,由于在不久的将来似乎不可能与欧洲经济共同体达成可接受的解决方案,理事会决定欧洲自由贸易联盟应继续执行自己的计划。根据这一决定,部长们决定成立一个协商委员会,代表包括劳工在内的经济活动的各个方面,就协会活动的各个层面提供建议。会议还考虑了从1961年1月1日起再削减10%关税的可能性,以跟上欧洲经济共同体计划在该日期削减的步伐,但理事会得出结论,自1960年7月1日首次削减20%关税以来,时间太少,无法在此时对时间表进行任何修改;然而,它在1961年初决定重新审查这个问题。部长们满意地注意到,最初的关税削减已经顺利实施,并重申欧洲自由贸易联盟的目标不是建立一个内向的优惠集团——例如,该集团的成立没有对与第三国的贸易施加任何限制。欧洲自由贸易联盟向所有贸易国,无论是工业产品还是农产品生产国,提供了扩大市场的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Coming to Terms: The Politics of Sovereign Bond Denomination 达成协议:主权债券面额的政治
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000357
Cameron Ballard-Rosa, Layna Mosley, R. Wellhausen
Abstract Governments interact strategically with sovereign bond market creditors: they make choices not only about how often and how much to borrow, but also under what terms. The denomination of debt, in domestic or foreign currency, is a critical part of these terms. The “original sin” logic has long predicted that creditors have little appetite for developing-country government debt issued in domestic currency. Our novel data, including bond issues by 131 countries in 240,000 primary market transactions between 1990 and 2016, suggest otherwise. Domestic-denominated bonds have come to dominate the market, although domestic-currency issuance often is accompanied by shorter bond maturities. We argue that ideologically rooted policy preferences play an important role in this unexpected trend in denomination. All else equal, right governments choose foreign denomination as a means of mitigating currency risk and thus minimizing borrowing costs. In contrast, left governments opt for the flexibility of domestic denomination, and they are better able to act on their preferences in the presence of risk-mitigating monetary institutions and macroeconomic stability. We find support for our argument that partisanship has a robust and enduring relationship with denomination outcomes, even in a marketplace in which domestic-denominated developing-country sovereign bonds have become the norm.
摘要政府与主权债券市场债权人进行战略互动:他们不仅可以选择借款频率和金额,还可以选择借款条件。债务的面额,无论是本国货币还是外国货币,都是这些条款的关键部分。长期以来,“原罪”逻辑一直预测,债权人对以本国货币发行的发展中国家政府债务没有什么兴趣。我们的新数据,包括1990年至2016年间131个国家在240000笔一级市场交易中发行的债券,表明情况并非如此。以本国货币计价的债券已经主导了市场,尽管本币发行往往伴随着债券到期日的缩短。我们认为,植根于意识形态的政策偏好在这种意想不到的教派趋势中发挥了重要作用。在其他所有平等、正确的政府选择外币作为降低货币风险的手段,从而最大限度地降低借贷成本。相比之下,左翼政府选择了国内面额的灵活性,在有风险缓释货币机构和宏观经济稳定的情况下,他们能够更好地根据自己的偏好行事。我们的论点得到了支持,即党派之争与面额结果有着牢固而持久的关系,即使在国内计价的发展中国家主权债券已成为常态的市场中也是如此。
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引用次数: 8
Does More Equality for Women Mean Less War? Rethinking Sex and Gender Inequality and Political Violence 更多的女性平等意味着更少的战争吗?重新思考性别和性别不平等与政治暴力
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000333
D. Cohen, S. Karim
Abstract Recent world events, such as the rise of hypermasculine authoritarian leaders, have shown the importance of both sex and gender for understanding international politics. However, quantitative researchers of conflict have long relegated the study of sex and gender inequality as a cause of war to a specialized group of scholars, despite overwhelming evidence that the connections are profound and consequential. In this review essay, we demonstrate the tremendous progress made in this field by analyzing a wave of research that examines the relationships between sex and gender inequality and war. We divide this work into theories that emphasize strategy versus those that analyze structures. In addition, we focus on two aspects of this research agenda—specifying mechanisms that link sex and gender inequality to war, and leveraging data at multiple levels of analysis—to outline fruitful pathways forward for the broader international security research agenda. Ultimately, we argue that the study of the nexus of sex and gender inequality and war will enliven theoretical debates, illuminate new hypotheses, and enrich the policy discourse with robust evidence.
摘要最近的世界事件,如超级男性独裁领导人的崛起,表明了性别和性别对理解国际政治的重要性。然而,冲突的定量研究人员长期以来一直将性别和性别不平等作为战争原因的研究归为一个专门的学者群体,尽管有压倒性的证据表明这种联系是深远的。在这篇综述文章中,我们通过分析一系列研究性别、性别不平等和战争之间关系的研究,展示了在这一领域取得的巨大进展。我们将这项工作分为强调战略的理论和分析结构的理论。此外,我们还关注这一研究议程的两个方面——具体说明将性别和性别不平等与战争联系起来的机制,以及利用多个层面的分析数据——为更广泛的国际安全研究议程勾勒出富有成效的前进道路。最终,我们认为,对性和性别不平等与战争之间关系的研究将活跃理论辩论,阐明新的假设,并用强有力的证据丰富政策话语。
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引用次数: 10
Learning to Predict Proliferation 学会预测扩散
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000345
N. Miller
Abstract How effective are states at assessing and predicting the nuclear intentions of foreign countries? Drawing on close to 200 US assessments of foreign countries’ proliferation intentions between 1957 and 1966, this research note finds that close to 80 percent of testable US assessments were correct and that they shifted from highly inaccurate in the late 1950s to highly accurate in the 1960s. Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, I conclude that learning from early failures led the intelligence community to achieve higher accuracy.
各国在评估和预测外国核意图方面的有效性如何?根据1957年至1966年间美国对外国扩散意图的近200项评估,本研究报告发现,近80%的可测试美国评估是正确的,它们从50年代末的高度不准确转变为60年代的高度准确。基于定量和定性分析,我得出结论,从早期的失败中学习可以使情报机构达到更高的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Council of Europe 欧洲委员会
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818300008675
H. Canton
The second part of the ninth ordinary session of the Consultative Assembly of the Council of Europe was held from October 16 to 29, 1957, under the presidency of Mr. Fernand Dehousse.
欧洲委员会协商会议第九届常会第二期会议于1957年10月16日至29日举行,由费尔南德·德豪斯先生担任主席。
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引用次数: 0
Social Positioning and International Order Contestation in Early Modern Southeast Asia 近代早期东南亚社会定位与国际秩序之争
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Pub Date : 2021-07-06 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818321000321
Colin Chia
Abstract Identities and ideas can lead to international order contestation through the efforts of international actors to socially position themselves and perform their identities. International actors try to shape the world to suit who they want to be. To substantiate this argument, I examine the contestation of international orders in early modern Southeast Asia. The prevailing view portrays a Confucian international order which formed a consensual and stable hierarchy in East Asia. However, instead of acquiescing to hegemonic leadership, both Siam and Vietnam frequently sought to assert their equality and even superiority to the Chinese dynasties. I argue that both polities engaged in political contention to define their places in relation to other polities and the broader social context in which they interacted. I examine how international order contestation emerged from efforts to define and redefine background knowledge about social positioning, social categorization, and the political ontologies and beliefs about collective purpose on which they are based. I claim that agents seek to interact with others in ways that reify their sense of self, and challenge the background knowledge embedded in performances of other actors that threaten their ability to perform their identity. I also argue against theories that attribute international order contestation to hegemonic decline or the breakdown of a tacit bargain, which assume that orders are held together by a dominant power. One implication is that hegemony and hierarchy are based on dominant ideas, not dominant states.
抽象身份和思想可以通过国际行为者的努力来定位自己并履行自己的身份,从而导致国际秩序的争夺。国际行动者试图塑造适合自己的世界。为了证实这一论点,我考察了现代早期东南亚的国际秩序之争。主流观点描绘了一种儒家国际秩序,这种秩序在东亚形成了一种协商一致、稳定的等级制度。然而,暹罗和越南并没有默许霸权主义的领导,而是经常寻求维护他们对中国王朝的平等甚至优越性。我认为,两个政体都参与了政治争论,以确定他们与其他政体的关系,以及他们互动的更广泛的社会背景。我研究了国际秩序之争是如何从定义和重新定义关于社会定位、社会分类的背景知识,以及它们所基于的关于集体目的的政治本体论和信念的努力中产生的。我声称,特工试图以具体化自我意识的方式与他人互动,并挑战其他演员表演中嵌入的背景知识,这些知识威胁到他们表演身份的能力。我还反对将国际秩序之争归因于霸权衰落或默契交易破裂的理论,这些理论认为秩序是由一个主导大国维系的。其中一个含义是,霸权和等级制度是建立在主导思想的基础上的,而不是主导国家。
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引用次数: 0
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International Organization
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