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Digital Disintegration: Techno-Blocs and Strategic Sovereignty in the AI Era 数字解体:人工智能时代的技术集团与战略主权
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101070
Stephen Weymouth

States are reshaping the global digital economy to assert control over the artificial intelligence (AI) value chain. Operating outside multilateral institutions, they pursue measures such as export controls on advanced semiconductors, infrastructure partnerships, and bans on foreign digital platforms. This digital disintegration reflects an elite-centered response to the infrastructural power that private firms wield over critical AI inputs. A handful of companies operate beyond the reach of domestic regulation and multilateral oversight, controlling access to technologies that create vulnerabilities existing institutions struggle to contain. As a result, states have asserted strategic digital sovereignty: the exercise of authority over core digital infrastructure, often through selective alliances with firms and other governments. The outcome is an emergent form of AI governance in techno-blocs: coalitions that coordinate control over key inputs while excluding others. These arrangements challenge the liberal international order by replacing multilateral cooperation with strategic—and often illiberal—alignment within competing blocs.

各国正在重塑全球数字经济,以控制人工智能(AI)价值链。他们在多边机构之外运作,采取诸如先进半导体出口管制、基础设施合作伙伴关系和禁止外国数字平台等措施。这种数字解体反映了一种以精英为中心的反应,即私营公司在关键的人工智能投入上拥有基础设施权力。少数几家公司在国内监管和多边监督范围之外运营,控制着对技术的获取,而这些技术造成了现有机构难以遏制的漏洞。因此,各国主张战略数字主权:通常通过与公司和其他政府选择性结盟,对核心数字基础设施行使权力。其结果是在技术集团中出现一种新兴的人工智能治理形式:协调对关键投入的控制,同时排除其他投入的联盟。这些安排挑战了自由主义的国际秩序,用相互竞争的集团内部的战略结盟(通常是不自由的)取代了多边合作。
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引用次数: 0
Authoritarianism, Global Politics, and the Future of Human Rights 威权主义、全球政治和人权的未来
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s002081832510101x
Rebecca Cordell, Alex Dukalskis

In the 1990s and 2000s, scholars emphasized the transformative power of international human rights and the durability of liberal global governance. Today, that optimism has faded. Human rights norms face sharper constraints, weakened institutions, and their authority challenged. We argue that rising authoritarian power—driven by more countries autocratizing, major powers gaining strength, and coordination in an emboldened bloc—poses a major challenge to the global human rights system, and that the United States’ retreat from human rights leadership is accelerating this threat. Authoritarian regimes are no longer merely resisting pressure; they are reshaping the system itself. Four strategies are driving this transformation: repression of domestic and transnational activism; refuting information and discrediting of critics; re-engineering procedures and coalitions within international organizations; and replacement of existing norms with alternative narratives that redefine human rights in illiberal terms. US disengagement amplifies each strategy by removing funding, normative leadership, and institutional backing that once raised the cost of violations and constrained authoritarian advance. Together, these developments mark a turning point. Where autocracies once played defense, liberal democracies and human rights actors are now on the defensive. If powerful authoritarian states consolidate these gains, they may emerge as models for others, attract new followers, and gravely damage liberal human rights as a global project. Yet the future is not preordained. Resilience may require liberal democracies confronting illiberal backsliding at home, and for European and other consolidated democracies to assume greater external leadership to strengthen the foundations of international human rights.

在20世纪90年代和21世纪初,学者们强调了国际人权的变革力量和自由主义全球治理的持久性。如今,这种乐观情绪已经消退。人权规范面临更严格的限制,机构被削弱,权威受到挑战。我们认为,由于越来越多的国家实行独裁,大国实力增强,以及在一个大胆的集团中进行协调,专制力量的崛起对全球人权体系构成了重大挑战,而美国退出人权领导地位正在加速这一威胁。专制政权不再仅仅是抵制压力;他们正在重塑这个体系本身。推动这一转变的有四大战略:压制国内和跨国行动主义;驳斥信息,诋毁批评者;重新设计国际组织内的程序和联盟;用不自由的方式重新定义人权的另类叙述取代现有的规范。美国的脱离通过取消资金、规范领导和机构支持来放大每一种战略,而这些曾经提高了违规行为的成本,限制了威权主义的发展。总之,这些事态发展标志着一个转折点。在专制国家曾经扮演防御角色的地方,自由民主国家和人权行动者现在处于守势。如果强大的威权国家巩固了这些成果,它们可能会成为其他国家的榜样,吸引新的追随者,并严重损害作为全球项目的自由人权。然而,未来并不是注定的。恢复力可能需要自由民主国家在国内面对不自由的倒退,并要求欧洲和其他巩固的民主国家承担更大的外部领导作用,以加强国际人权的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Weathering the Storm: US Trade Policy Beyond Trump 渡过风暴:特朗普之后的美国贸易政策
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101112
Andreas Dür, Alessia Invernizzi

The liberal international trading system has underpinned decades of unprecedented globalization. Yet the imposition of across-the-board and country- and sector-specific tariffs by the second Trump administration in early 2025 has reignited debates over the system’s survival. We challenge the notion that the regime is on the brink of collapse. Drawing on historical patterns of United States trade policy, we argue that US engagement with global commerce has mostly been eclectic, characterized by the coexistence of protectionist and liberal impulses. We show that the system has demonstrated resilience and an ability to adapt to challenges resulting from this eclecticism. While current US trade actions are unprecedented since World War II, we present three reasons to expect a return to the traditional US approach to trade policy. We therefore argue that, despite the protectionist turn and the disruptions created by current US trade policy, predictions about the death of the system underestimate its adaptive flexibility and are thus premature.

自由的国际贸易体系支撑了几十年来前所未有的全球化。然而,2025年初特朗普第二届政府全面征收针对特定国家和行业的关税,重新引发了有关该体系生存的辩论。我们质疑那种认为朝鲜政权正处于崩溃边缘的看法。根据美国贸易政策的历史模式,我们认为美国对全球商业的参与大多是折衷的,其特点是保护主义和自由主义冲动并存。我们表明,该系统已经显示出弹性和适应这种折衷主义带来的挑战的能力。尽管美国目前的贸易行动是二战以来前所未有的,但我们有三个理由认为,美国将恢复传统的贸易政策。因此,我们认为,尽管出现了保护主义倾向,且美国当前的贸易政策造成了破坏,但有关该体系消亡的预测低估了其适应性灵活性,因此为时过早。
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引用次数: 0
Information Disorder and Global Politics 信息混乱与全球政治
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101069
Julia C. Morse, Tyler Pratt

Information is a key variable in International Relations, underpinning theories of foreign policy, inter-state cooperation, and civil and international conflict. Yet IR scholars have only begun to grapple with the consequences of recent shifts in the global information environment. We argue that information disorder—a media environment with low barriers to content creation, rapid spread of false or misleading material, and algorithmic amplification of sensational and fragmented narratives—will reshape the practice and study of International Relations. We identify three major implications of information disorder on international politics. First, information disorder distorts how citizens access and evaluate political information, creating effects that are particularly destabilizing for democracies. Second, it damages international cooperation by eroding shared focal points and increasing incentives for noncompliance. Finally, information disorder shifts patterns of conflict by intensifying societal cleavages, enabling foreign influence, and eroding democratic advantages in crisis bargaining. We conclude by outlining an agenda for future research.

信息是国际关系中的一个关键变量,是外交政策、国家间合作以及国内和国际冲突理论的基础。然而,国际关系学者才刚刚开始努力应对最近全球信息环境变化的后果。我们认为,信息混乱——一个内容创造障碍低、虚假或误导性材料迅速传播、耸人听闻和碎片化叙事的算法放大的媒体环境——将重塑国际关系的实践和研究。我们确定了信息无序对国际政治的三个主要影响。首先,信息混乱扭曲了公民获取和评估政治信息的方式,对民主国家造成了特别不稳定的影响。其次,它侵蚀了共同的焦点,增加了不遵守的动机,从而损害了国际合作。最后,信息混乱通过加剧社会分裂、促成外国影响和侵蚀危机谈判中的民主优势,改变了冲突的模式。最后,我们概述了未来研究的议程。
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引用次数: 0
Allies and Access: Implications of an American Turn Away from Alliances 《盟友与准入:美国脱离盟友的影响》
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325100982
Austin Carson, Rachel Metz, Paul Poast

A defining feature of the post-1945 international system is the American network of allies and partners that has underpinned its global power. Recent developments within the United States and in the international system have severely strained that alliance network. If it collapses, what is at stake? Existing scholarship in International Relations highlights losses in aggregated military capabilities, reduced diplomatic support, and lost trade. In this essay we review these benefits and another that has been overlooked: ally-enabled access. Access refers to permission from allies and partners to engage in military and intelligence missions within their borders on their territory, through their airspace, or in their territorial waters. Access via America’s allies and security partners has enabled Washington to use foreign sovereign spaces for military logistics, military operations, and foreign surveillance to overcome the tyranny of distance. Examples include permission from allies and partners in the Middle East to allow the US Air Force to fly from their bases to strike targets in Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11, and US intelligence installations built and operated by permission from Pakistani, Turkish, and Japanese territory during the Cold War. We describe the broad functions of alliances and show how access has been key to projection of American military and intelligence power at a global scale. Perhaps limiting or ending America’s global hegemonic role is desirable; perhaps it is dangerous. We argue that accounting for the contributions of access made by allies and security partners is critical if scholars, policymakers, and publics are to properly assess what is at stake in an American turn away from alliances.

1945年后国际体系的一个决定性特征是,美国的盟友和伙伴网络支撑了其全球实力。美国国内和国际体系中最近的事态发展使这一联盟网络严重紧张。如果它崩溃了,会有什么危险?现有的国际关系方面的学术研究强调了总体军事能力的损失、外交支持的减少和贸易的损失。在这篇文章中,我们回顾了这些好处和另一个被忽视的好处:盟友支持的访问。准入是指获得盟国和伙伴的许可,在其境内、其领土、其领空或其领海内从事军事和情报任务。通过美国的盟友和安全伙伴,华盛顿能够利用外国主权空间进行军事后勤、军事行动和外国监视,以克服距离的束缚。例如,在9/11事件后,中东的盟友和合作伙伴允许美国空军从他们的基地起飞,打击阿富汗和伊拉克的目标,以及冷战期间,美国在巴基斯坦、土耳其和日本领土上建造和运营的情报设施。我们描述了联盟的广泛功能,并展示了访问如何成为美国在全球范围内投射军事和情报力量的关键。也许限制或结束美国的全球霸权角色是可取的;也许这很危险。我们认为,如果学者、政策制定者和公众要正确评估美国脱离联盟的利害关系,那么考虑盟友和安全伙伴对获取信息的贡献是至关重要的。
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引用次数: 0
Territorial Integrity As an Etiquette of Thieves: Non-conquest in Nineteenth-Century Imperialism 领土完整是盗贼的礼仪:19世纪帝国主义的不征服
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101124
Kerry Goettlich

In the contemporary era, territorial conquest has been seen as illegitimate and has taken place in only limited ways. According to an influential narrative in scholarship and public debate, this “territorial integrity norm” is a product of the post-World War II international order and contrasts with the nineteenth century, when conquest was normalized and “might made right.” This essay argues, however, that nineteenth-century European international law imposed meaningful limitations on conquest, including “territorial inviolability.” These limitations were more effective in the colonized world than in Europe, primarily because national irredentism was not thought relevant outside Europe. Europeans’ denial of non-European sovereignty contrasted with their respect for European-established colonial boundaries, and they did not fight over colonial territory between 1815 and 1914. I demonstrate the strength of this “etiquette of thieves” by examining two events where territorial conflict between colonial powers was narrowly avoided: the Panjdeh (1885) and Fashoda (1898) incidents. Viewing territorial integrity as qualitatively changing, rather than absent at one time and present later, has important implications for discussions of how recent conquests, such as those of Russia in Ukraine, will affect the principle of territorial integrity. In particular, territorial integrity may be more likely to be altered in how it is applied than eroded altogether. A specific form of territorial integrity is an integral part of the post-World War II international order, but constraints on conquest as such need not be limited to that specific version of territorial integrity.

在当代,领土征服被认为是非法的,而且只以有限的方式进行。根据学术界和公共辩论中一种有影响力的说法,这种“领土完整规范”是二战后国际秩序的产物,与19世纪形成鲜明对比,当时征服被正常化,“强权即公理”。然而,本文认为,19世纪的欧洲国际法对征服施加了有意义的限制,包括“领土不可侵犯性”。这些限制在殖民地比在欧洲更有效,主要是因为民族统一主义在欧洲以外被认为无关紧要。欧洲人对非欧洲国家主权的否认与他们对欧洲建立的殖民地边界的尊重形成了鲜明对比,他们在1815年至1914年间没有争夺殖民地领土。我通过考察两个事件来证明这种“盗贼礼仪”的力量,这两个事件是殖民列强之间勉强避免了领土冲突:1885年的Panjdeh事件和1898年的Fashoda事件。将领土完整视为一种质变,而不是在某一时期不存在,然后出现,这对讨论最近的征服(如俄罗斯在乌克兰的征服)将如何影响领土完整原则具有重要意义。特别是,领土完整更有可能改变其适用方式,而不是完全被侵蚀。某种特定形式的领土完整是第二次世界大战后国际秩序的组成部分,但对征服的限制不必局限于这种特定形式的领土完整。
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引用次数: 0
Global Climate Politics after the Return of President Trump 特朗普总统回归后的全球气候政治
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s002081832510115x
Jeff Colgan, Federica Genovese

The second Trump administration has disrupted global climate politics, turning the United States away from the clean energy and environmental policies of the Biden administration. Consequently, analytical attention is turning, inside and outside of the United States, to a family of concepts referred to as “Climate Realism” (CR), which favors long-run investments in technology and adaptation over near-term climate mitigation efforts. We critically engage with CR and argue that political science identifies four key features of climate politics that shed light on CR’s strengths and weaknesses, and which will persist even in the second Trump era. Despite CR’s flaws, we contend that its emergence in reaction to the second Trump administration highlights some important dimensions of climate politics that deserve greater attention going forward. We highlight three topics for research: the political and practical strategies of the anti-green coalition; the heterogeneity in viable national economic strategies; and the implications for IR of a turn away from meaningful climate mitigation in powerful nations.

第二届特朗普政府扰乱了全球气候政治,使美国偏离了拜登政府的清洁能源和环境政策。因此,无论是在美国国内还是国外,分析的注意力都转向了一系列被称为“气候现实主义”(Climate Realism,简称CR)的概念,该概念倾向于在技术和适应方面进行长期投资,而不是短期的气候减缓努力。我们批判性地参与到CR中,并认为政治学确定了气候政治的四个关键特征,这些特征揭示了CR的优势和劣势,即使在第二个特朗普时代,这些特征也将持续存在。尽管《社会责任》存在缺陷,但我们认为,它的出现是对特朗普第二任政府的回应,突显了气候政治的一些重要方面,值得我们在未来给予更多关注。我们重点研究了三个主题:反绿色联盟的政治和实践策略;可行的国家经济战略的异质性;以及大国放弃有意义的气候减缓对国际关系的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The New Age of Myth: Political Narratives and the Reconstitution of World Order 神话的新时代:政治叙事与世界秩序的重构
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101021
C. Nicolai L. Gellwitzki, Jeremy F.G. Moulton

Political myths, the sacred narratives that legitimize power, are at the core of all political communities and organizations. In the post–World War II era, clear myths emerged around the ordering of the world, placing democracy, order, and peace at the idealized heart of global governance. Today, the international order is markedly changed. Previously dominant myths are routinely questioned and the international order that was built on these myths is beginning to fragment. Myths traditionally change with institutions. At this unique inflection point in the 2020s, however, this is no longer the case—myths crumble while the institutions they once supported persist, creating a vacuum in which novel myths must emerge in what we refer to as the new age of myth. We argue that the global order is in a transitional moment in terms of its governing mythologies. The myths that are born out of this age will underline the institutions, ideas, and ideologies that will shape the trajectory of the international order in the coming decades. In this essay we therefore argue that the study of political myths should be central to future approaches to international relations. Such an emphasis not only provides insight into the pathways of international cooperation and politics that may emerge from the contemporary shattering of the global political order, but also highlights how these sacred narratives will shape its future trajectory.

政治神话是使权力合法化的神圣叙事,是所有政治团体和组织的核心。在第二次世界大战后,围绕世界秩序出现了清晰的神话,将民主、秩序与和平置于全球治理的理想化核心。今天,国际秩序发生了显著变化。以前占主导地位的神话经常受到质疑,建立在这些神话之上的国际秩序正开始分崩离析。传统上,神话会随着制度而改变。然而,在本世纪20年代这个独特的拐点上,情况不再是这样了——神话崩溃了,而它们曾经支持的制度却继续存在,创造了一个真空,在这个真空中,新的神话必须出现,我们称之为神话的新时代。我们认为,就其统治神话而言,全球秩序正处于一个过渡时期。在这个时代诞生的神话将突显出未来几十年塑造国际秩序轨迹的制度、思想和意识形态。因此,在本文中,我们认为对政治神话的研究应该成为未来国际关系研究的核心。这种强调不仅提供了对当代全球政治秩序破碎可能产生的国际合作和政治途径的洞察,而且还强调了这些神圣的叙述将如何塑造其未来的轨迹。
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引用次数: 0
Pushing Back or Backing Down? Evidence on Donor Responses to Restrictive NGO Legislation 反击还是退让?关于捐助者对限制性非政府组织立法反应的证据
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325100957
Lucy Right, Jeremy Springman, Erik Wibbels
As authoritarianism has spread globally, government efforts to stifle civic space have increased dramatically. Among the most alarming tactics has been the spread of restrictive laws targeting NGOs. While such laws threaten the core objectives of many foreign donors, they have become especially common in aid-dependent nations. How do foreign donors react to this assault on their local and international implementing partners? On the one hand, democracy-promoting donors might push back, ramping up support for advocacy in defiance of draconian measures. Alternatively, when aspiring autocrats make it difficult to work with local partners, donors might back down, decreasing support for democracy promotion. Testing these arguments using dyadic data on aid flows, an original data set of NGO laws, and a variety of research designs, we find that the donors most committed to democracy promotion back down in the face of restrictive NGO laws, reducing democracy aid by 70 percent in the years after laws are enacted. Our findings suggest that donor behavior creates strong incentives for backsliding governments in aid-receiving countries to use legislation to crack down on civil society.
随着威权主义在全球蔓延,政府扼杀公民空间的努力急剧增加。最令人担忧的策略之一是针对非政府组织的限制性法律的传播。尽管此类法律威胁到许多外国援助国的核心目标,但它们在依赖援助的国家变得尤为普遍。外国捐助者如何应对对其当地和国际执行伙伴的攻击?一方面,推动民主的捐助者可能会反击,加大对倡导的支持,无视严厉的措施。或者,当有抱负的独裁者难以与当地合作伙伴合作时,捐助者可能会退缩,减少对民主推广的支持。我们使用援助流动的二元数据、非政府组织法律的原始数据集和各种研究设计来检验这些论点,我们发现,面对限制性的非政府组织法律,最致力于促进民主的捐助者退缩了,在法律颁布后的几年里,民主援助减少了70%。我们的研究结果表明,捐助者的行为会强烈激励那些倒退的受援国政府利用立法来镇压公民社会。
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引用次数: 0
How Migrating Overseas Shapes Political Preferences: Evidence from a Field Experiment 海外移民如何影响政治偏好:来自实地实验的证据
IF 7.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325100842
Nikhar Gaikwad, Kolby Hanson, Aliz Tóth

Scholarship on cross-border migration and welfare state politics has focused on native-born individuals’ attitudes. How does migration affect the redistribution preferences of migrants—key constituents in host and home countries? We argue that migration causes migrants to adopt more fiscally conservative attitudes, driven not only by economic gains but also by psychological shifts toward self-reliance and beliefs in the prospect of upward mobility. We present results from a randomized controlled trial that facilitated labor migration from India to the Middle East. The intervention prompted high rates of cross-border migration and significantly reduced support for taxation and redistribution among migrants. By contrast, left-behind family members did not become more fiscally conservative despite also experiencing economic gains. While the migrants became economically confident and self-reliant, their family members grew increasingly dependent on remittances. Our results demonstrate that globalization’s impacts on welfare-state preferences depend on the pathways by which it generates economic opportunity.

跨境移民和福利国家政治方面的研究主要集中在本土出生的个人的态度上。移民如何影响移民——东道国和母国的关键组成部分——的再分配偏好?我们认为,移民导致移民在财政上采取更保守的态度,这不仅受到经济收益的驱动,还受到心理上转向自力更生和对向上流动前景的信念的驱动。我们提出了一项随机对照试验的结果,该试验促进了从印度到中东的劳动力迁移。干预措施导致跨境移徙率高企,并大大降低了对移徙者征税和再分配的支持。相比之下,留守家庭成员虽然经历了经济收益,但在财政上并没有变得更加保守。虽然移民在经济上变得自信和自立,但他们的家庭成员越来越依赖汇款。我们的研究结果表明,全球化对福利国家偏好的影响取决于它产生经济机会的途径。
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引用次数: 0
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