Abstract A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers’ forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic expectations (DE) paradigm [Bordalo et al. (2018), Journal of Finance, 73, 199–227] to capture this feature of belief formation, develop a method to incorporate DE in business cycle models, and study the implications for aggregate dynamics. First, we address (1) the theoretical challenges associated with modelling the feedback between optimal actions and agents’ DE beliefs and (2) the time-inconsistencies that arise under distant memory (i.e. when news is perceived with respect to a more distant past than just the immediate one). Second, we show that under distant memory the interaction between actions and DE beliefs naturally generates repeated boom–bust cycles in response to a single initial shock. We also propose a portable solution method to study DE in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and use it to estimate a quantitative DE New Keynesian model. Both endogenous states and distant memory play a critical role in successfully replicating the boom–bust cycle observed in response to a monetary policy shock.
大量心理学文献认为，由于选择性记忆回忆，决策者对未来的预测受到感知新闻的过度影响。我们采用诊断期望(DE)范式[Bordalo et al. (2018)， Journal of Finance, 73, 199-227]来捕捉信念形成的这一特征，开发了一种将DE纳入商业周期模型的方法，并研究了对总体动力学的影响。首先，我们解决(1)与最优行为和主体DE信念之间的反馈建模相关的理论挑战，以及(2)在遥远记忆中出现的时间不一致性(即，当新闻被感知到的是更遥远的过去，而不仅仅是眼前的过去)。其次，我们表明，在遥远的记忆中，行为和DE信念之间的相互作用自然会产生重复的繁荣-萧条周期，以响应单一的初始冲击。我们还提出了一种便携式求解方法来研究动态随机一般均衡模型中的DE，并用它来估计定量的DE新凯恩斯模型。内生状态和遥远记忆在成功复制应对货币政策冲击时观察到的繁荣-萧条周期方面都发挥了关键作用。
{"title":"Diagnostic Business Cycles","authors":"Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut, Hikaru Saijo","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers’ forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic expectations (DE) paradigm [Bordalo et al. (2018), Journal of Finance, 73, 199–227] to capture this feature of belief formation, develop a method to incorporate DE in business cycle models, and study the implications for aggregate dynamics. First, we address (1) the theoretical challenges associated with modelling the feedback between optimal actions and agents’ DE beliefs and (2) the time-inconsistencies that arise under distant memory (i.e. when news is perceived with respect to a more distant past than just the immediate one). Second, we show that under distant memory the interaction between actions and DE beliefs naturally generates repeated boom–bust cycles in response to a single initial shock. We also propose a portable solution method to study DE in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and use it to estimate a quantitative DE New Keynesian model. Both endogenous states and distant memory play a critical role in successfully replicating the boom–bust cycle observed in response to a monetary policy shock.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"295 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135030223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies a competitive model of insurance markets in which consumers are privately informed about their risk and risk preferences. We provide a characterization of the equilibria, which depend non-trivially on consumers' type distribution, a desirable feature for policy analysis. The use of consumer char-acteristics for risk classification is modeled as the disclosure of a public informative signal. A novel property of signals, monotonicity, is shown to be necessary and sufficient for their release to be welfare improving for almost all consumer types. We also study the effect of changes to the risk distribution in the population as the result of demographic changes or policy interventions. We show that an increase in the risk distribu-tion, according to the monotone likelihood ratio ordering of distribution, leads to lower utility for almost all consumer types. In contrast, the effect is ambiguous when considering the first order stochastic dominance ordering.
{"title":"Risk Classification in Insurance Markets with Risk and Preference Heterogeneity","authors":"Vitor Farinha Luz, P. Gottardi, Humberto Moreira","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad017","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper studies a competitive model of insurance markets in which consumers are privately informed about their risk and risk preferences. We provide a characterization of the equilibria, which depend non-trivially on consumers' type distribution, a desirable feature for policy analysis. The use of consumer char-acteristics for risk classification is modeled as the disclosure of a public informative signal. A novel property of signals, monotonicity, is shown to be necessary and sufficient for their release to be welfare improving for almost all consumer types. We also study the effect of changes to the risk distribution in the population as the result of demographic changes or policy interventions. We show that an increase in the risk distribu-tion, according to the monotone likelihood ratio ordering of distribution, leads to lower utility for almost all consumer types. In contrast, the effect is ambiguous when considering the first order stochastic dominance ordering.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44489943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J Klenow, Huiyu Li
Abstract Growth has fallen in the U.S. amid a rise in firm concentration. Market share has shifted to low labour share firms, while within-firm labour shares have actually risen. We propose a theory linking these trends in which the driving force is falling overhead costs of spanning multiple products or a rising efficiency advantage of large firms. In response, the most efficient firms (with higher markups) spread into new product lines, thereby increasing concentration and generating a temporary burst of growth. Eventually, due to greater competition from efficient firms, within-firm markups and incentives to innovate fall. Thus our simple model can generate qualitative patterns in line with the observed trends.
{"title":"A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents","authors":"Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J Klenow, Huiyu Li","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Growth has fallen in the U.S. amid a rise in firm concentration. Market share has shifted to low labour share firms, while within-firm labour shares have actually risen. We propose a theory linking these trends in which the driving force is falling overhead costs of spanning multiple products or a rising efficiency advantage of large firms. In response, the most efficient firms (with higher markups) spread into new product lines, thereby increasing concentration and generating a temporary burst of growth. Eventually, due to greater competition from efficient firms, within-firm markups and incentives to innovate fall. Thus our simple model can generate qualitative patterns in line with the observed trends.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"124 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135081067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Left-digit bias (or 99-cent pricing) has been discussed extensively in economics, psychology, and marketing. Despite this, we show that the rideshare company, Lyft, was not using a 99-cent pricing strategy prior to our study. Based on observational data from over 600 million Lyft sessions followed by a field experiment conducted with 21 million Lyft passengers, we provide evidence of large discontinuities in demand at dollar values. Approximately half of the downward slope of the demand curve occurs discontinuously as the price of a ride drops below a dollar value (e.g. $14.00 to $13.99). If our short run estimates persist in the longer run, we calculate that Lyft could increase its profits by roughly $160M per year by employing a left-digit bias pricing strategy. Our results showcase the robustness of an important behavioral bias for a large, modern company and its persistence in a highly-competitive market.
{"title":"Left-Digit Bias at Lyft","authors":"J. List, Ian Muir, Devin G. Pope, Greg Sun","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Left-digit bias (or 99-cent pricing) has been discussed extensively in economics, psychology, and marketing. Despite this, we show that the rideshare company, Lyft, was not using a 99-cent pricing strategy prior to our study. Based on observational data from over 600 million Lyft sessions followed by a field experiment conducted with 21 million Lyft passengers, we provide evidence of large discontinuities in demand at dollar values. Approximately half of the downward slope of the demand curve occurs discontinuously as the price of a ride drops below a dollar value (e.g. $14.00 to $13.99). If our short run estimates persist in the longer run, we calculate that Lyft could increase its profits by roughly $160M per year by employing a left-digit bias pricing strategy. Our results showcase the robustness of an important behavioral bias for a large, modern company and its persistence in a highly-competitive market.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47087725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Private efficiency of wage rigidity has taken center stage in economics. Measuring its effects has proven elusive for lack of actual wage data. Using a unique confidential labor contract level dataset matched with firm-level high frequency asset prices, we find robust evidence that firms’ stock prices and employment fluctuate more in response to monetary policy announcements the higher the degree of wage rigidity. Hand-collected information on the periods across renegotiations of collective bargaining agreements allow us to construct an accurate and predetermined measure of wage rigidity. We find that the amplification induced by wage rigidity is stronger for firms with high labor intensity, low profitability, and a large share of workers with more rigid contracts.
{"title":"The Cost of Wage Rigidity","authors":"Ester Faia, Vincenzo Pezone","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad020","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Private efficiency of wage rigidity has taken center stage in economics. Measuring its effects has proven elusive for lack of actual wage data. Using a unique confidential labor contract level dataset matched with firm-level high frequency asset prices, we find robust evidence that firms’ stock prices and employment fluctuate more in response to monetary policy announcements the higher the degree of wage rigidity. Hand-collected information on the periods across renegotiations of collective bargaining agreements allow us to construct an accurate and predetermined measure of wage rigidity. We find that the amplification induced by wage rigidity is stronger for firms with high labor intensity, low profitability, and a large share of workers with more rigid contracts.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49340036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper revisits the link between electrification and the rise in female labor force participation (LFP), and presents theoretical and empirical evidence showing that electrification triggered a rise in female LFP by increasing market opportunities for skilled women. I formalize my theory in an overlapping generations model and find that my mechanism explains one quarter of the rise in female LFP during the rollout of electricity in the United States (1880–1940), and matches the slow decline in female home-production hours during this period. I then present micro-evidence supporting my theory using newly digitized data on the early electrification of the United States.
{"title":"Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States","authors":"D. Vidart","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad021","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper revisits the link between electrification and the rise in female labor force participation (LFP), and presents theoretical and empirical evidence showing that electrification triggered a rise in female LFP by increasing market opportunities for skilled women. I formalize my theory in an overlapping generations model and find that my mechanism explains one quarter of the rise in female LFP during the rollout of electricity in the United States (1880–1940), and matches the slow decline in female home-production hours during this period. I then present micro-evidence supporting my theory using newly digitized data on the early electrification of the United States.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41594550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event-study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated. Instead of requiring that parallel trends holds exactly, we impose restrictions on how different the post-treatment violations of parallel trends can be from the pre-treatment differences in trends (“pre-trends”). The causal parameter of interest is partially identified under these restrictions. We introduce two approaches that guarantee uniformly valid inference under the imposed restrictions, and we derive novel results showing that they have desirable power properties in our context. We illustrate how economic knowledge can inform the restrictions on the possible violations of parallel trends in two economic applications. We also highlight how our approach can be used to conduct sensitivity analyses showing what causal conclusions can be drawn under various restrictions on the possible violations of the parallel trends assumption.
{"title":"A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends","authors":"Ashesh Rambachan, Jonathan Roth","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event-study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated. Instead of requiring that parallel trends holds exactly, we impose restrictions on how different the post-treatment violations of parallel trends can be from the pre-treatment differences in trends (“pre-trends”). The causal parameter of interest is partially identified under these restrictions. We introduce two approaches that guarantee uniformly valid inference under the imposed restrictions, and we derive novel results showing that they have desirable power properties in our context. We illustrate how economic knowledge can inform the restrictions on the possible violations of parallel trends in two economic applications. We also highlight how our approach can be used to conduct sensitivity analyses showing what causal conclusions can be drawn under various restrictions on the possible violations of the parallel trends assumption.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135538193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg, C. Kreiner, Stefanie Stantcheva
We link survey data on Danish people’s perceived income positions and fairness views on inequality within various reference groups to administrative records on their reference groups, income histories, and life events. People are, on average, well-informed about the income levels of their reference groups. Yet, lower-ranked respondents in all groups tend to overestimate their own position among others because they believe others’ incomes are lower than they actually are, whereas the opposite holds true for higher-ranked respondents. Misperceptions of positions in reference groups relate to proximity to other individuals, transparency norms, and visible signals of income. People view inequalities within their co-workers and education groups as significantly more unfair than overall inequality, yet underestimate inequality the most exactly within these groups. Views on the fairness of inequalities are strongly correlated with an individual’s current position, move with shocks like unemployment or promotions, and change when experimentally informing people about their actual positions. However, the higher perceived unfairness of income differences within co-workers and education groups stays unchanged. The theoretical framework shows that this can have important implications for redistribution policy.
{"title":"Social Positions and Fairness Views on Inequality","authors":"Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg, C. Kreiner, Stefanie Stantcheva","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad019","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We link survey data on Danish people’s perceived income positions and fairness views on inequality within various reference groups to administrative records on their reference groups, income histories, and life events. People are, on average, well-informed about the income levels of their reference groups. Yet, lower-ranked respondents in all groups tend to overestimate their own position among others because they believe others’ incomes are lower than they actually are, whereas the opposite holds true for higher-ranked respondents. Misperceptions of positions in reference groups relate to proximity to other individuals, transparency norms, and visible signals of income. People view inequalities within their co-workers and education groups as significantly more unfair than overall inequality, yet underestimate inequality the most exactly within these groups. Views on the fairness of inequalities are strongly correlated with an individual’s current position, move with shocks like unemployment or promotions, and change when experimentally informing people about their actual positions. However, the higher perceived unfairness of income differences within co-workers and education groups stays unchanged. The theoretical framework shows that this can have important implications for redistribution policy.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47130302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We provide a novel explanation for the empirical failure of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) despite its widespread practical use. In a rational-expectations economy in which information is dispersed, variation in expected returns over time and across investors creates an informational gap between investors and the empiricist. The CAPM holds for investors, but the securities market line appears flat to the empiricist. Variation in expected returns across investors accounts for the larger part of this distortion, which is empirically substantial; it offers a new interpretation of why “betting against beta” (BAB) works: BAB really bets on true beta. The empiricist retrieves a stronger CAPM on days when public information reduces disagreement among investors.
{"title":"The Lost Capital Asset Pricing Model","authors":"Daniel Andrei, Julien Cujean, Mungo Wilson","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We provide a novel explanation for the empirical failure of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) despite its widespread practical use. In a rational-expectations economy in which information is dispersed, variation in expected returns over time and across investors creates an informational gap between investors and the empiricist. The CAPM holds for investors, but the securities market line appears flat to the empiricist. Variation in expected returns across investors accounts for the larger part of this distortion, which is empirically substantial; it offers a new interpretation of why “betting against beta” (BAB) works: BAB really bets on true beta. The empiricist retrieves a stronger CAPM on days when public information reduces disagreement among investors.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"241 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135727140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Diego Daruich, Sabrina Di Addario, Raffaele Saggio
Abstract We combine matched employer–employee data with firms’ financial records to study a 2001 Italian reform that lifted constraints on the employment of temporary contract workers while maintaining rigid employment protection regulations for employees hired under permanent contracts. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the reform across different collective bargaining agreements, we find that this policy change led to an increase in the share of temporary contracts but failed to raise employment. The reform had both winners and losers. Firms are the main winners as the reform was successful in decreasing labor costs, leading to higher profits. By contrast, young workers are the main losers since their earnings were substantially depressed following the policy change. Rent-sharing estimates show that temporary workers receive only two-thirds of the rents shared by firms with permanent workers, helping explain most of the labor costs and earnings reductions caused by the reform.
{"title":"The Effects of Partial Employment Protection Reforms: Evidence from Italy","authors":"Diego Daruich, Sabrina Di Addario, Raffaele Saggio","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdad012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We combine matched employer–employee data with firms’ financial records to study a 2001 Italian reform that lifted constraints on the employment of temporary contract workers while maintaining rigid employment protection regulations for employees hired under permanent contracts. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the reform across different collective bargaining agreements, we find that this policy change led to an increase in the share of temporary contracts but failed to raise employment. The reform had both winners and losers. Firms are the main winners as the reform was successful in decreasing labor costs, leading to higher profits. By contrast, young workers are the main losers since their earnings were substantially depressed following the policy change. Rent-sharing estimates show that temporary workers receive only two-thirds of the rents shared by firms with permanent workers, helping explain most of the labor costs and earnings reductions caused by the reform.","PeriodicalId":48449,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Studies","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136051801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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