Pub Date : 2023-07-24DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2239790
Po-Hsun Cheng, L. Yong, Yuhe Zhang, Xia Liu, Shuai Yin, Kai Yao
{"title":"Numerical modelling of the keying process for a suction embedded plate anchor in spatially varying clays","authors":"Po-Hsun Cheng, L. Yong, Yuhe Zhang, Xia Liu, Shuai Yin, Kai Yao","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2239790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2239790","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42728074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-06DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4030015
Ioannis Gkougkoustamos, P. Krassakis, G. Kalogeropoulou, I. Parcharidis
On 6 February 2023, an M7.8 devastating earthquake started rupturing the East Anatolian fault system in Turkey, resulting in intense shaking that lasted over a minute. A second earthquake of magnitude 7.5 struck near the city of Elbistan a few hours later. Both of these events are associated with the East Anatolian fault system. The earthquake sequence caused widespread damage and collapse of structures in densely populated areas throughout the Southern Turkey and Northern Syria regions and a very large number of human losses. This study focuses on the correlation of the ground deformation with the critical exposure of the infrastructures of Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş cities. The estimation of the ground deformation of the affected area is achieved with the use of Copernicus Sentinel-2 products and the Normalized Cross Correlation algorithm (NCC) of image matching. The results of the East–West component show that specific sections of the region moved towards the East direction, reaching displacement measurements of 5.4 m, while other sections moved towards the West direction, reaching displacement measurements of 2.8 m. The results of the North–South component show that almost the whole affected area moved towards the North direction, with specific areas reaching displacements of 5.5 m, and a few exemptions, as some areas moved towards the South direction, with displacements reaching even 6.9 m. Regarding the cities of Kahramanmaraş and Gaziantep, their estimated movement direction is North-West and North-East, respectively, and is consistent with the movements of the Arabian and Anatolian Plates in which they are located. Important infrastructures of the study areas (education, museums, libraries, hospitals, monuments, airports, roads and railways) are superimposed on the findings, enabling us to detect the critical exposure rapidly.
{"title":"Correlation of Ground Deformation Induced by the 6 February 2023 M7.8 and M7.5 Earthquakes in Turkey Inferred by Sentinel-2 and Critical Exposure in Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş Cities","authors":"Ioannis Gkougkoustamos, P. Krassakis, G. Kalogeropoulou, I. Parcharidis","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4030015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4030015","url":null,"abstract":"On 6 February 2023, an M7.8 devastating earthquake started rupturing the East Anatolian fault system in Turkey, resulting in intense shaking that lasted over a minute. A second earthquake of magnitude 7.5 struck near the city of Elbistan a few hours later. Both of these events are associated with the East Anatolian fault system. The earthquake sequence caused widespread damage and collapse of structures in densely populated areas throughout the Southern Turkey and Northern Syria regions and a very large number of human losses. This study focuses on the correlation of the ground deformation with the critical exposure of the infrastructures of Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş cities. The estimation of the ground deformation of the affected area is achieved with the use of Copernicus Sentinel-2 products and the Normalized Cross Correlation algorithm (NCC) of image matching. The results of the East–West component show that specific sections of the region moved towards the East direction, reaching displacement measurements of 5.4 m, while other sections moved towards the West direction, reaching displacement measurements of 2.8 m. The results of the North–South component show that almost the whole affected area moved towards the North direction, with specific areas reaching displacements of 5.5 m, and a few exemptions, as some areas moved towards the South direction, with displacements reaching even 6.9 m. Regarding the cities of Kahramanmaraş and Gaziantep, their estimated movement direction is North-West and North-East, respectively, and is consistent with the movements of the Arabian and Anatolian Plates in which they are located. Important infrastructures of the study areas (education, museums, libraries, hospitals, monuments, airports, roads and railways) are superimposed on the findings, enabling us to detect the critical exposure rapidly.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74576116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-30DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4030014
Dimitris Sotiriadis, B. Margaris, N. Klimis, Ioannis M. Dokas
Greece is located in one of the most seismically active regions in Europe. Many seismic hazard studies have been performed for various sites around Greece, at a regional or local scale. However, the latest national seismic hazard map, currently used for the seismic design of buildings and infrastructure, was published in 2000 and has not been updated since then. In light of recent advances in seismic source and ground motion modeling, the present study focuses on a comparative Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the region of East Macedonia and Thrace (EMTH), located in Northern Greece. Various seismic source models are implemented and compared against an updated earthquake catalog to form the necessary source model logic tree. The ground motion logic tree is composed of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which have been proven suitable for implementation in Greece. PSHA results are presented for the most important cities of East Macedonia and Thrace in a comparative way, which highlights the variability of the seismic hazard among the various seismic source models. An updated seismic hazard map of the study area is proposed, and a comparative disaggregation analysis is performed to estimate the earthquake scenarios with the largest contribution to the seismic hazard.
{"title":"Seismic Hazard in Greece: A Comparative Study for the Region of East Macedonia and Thrace","authors":"Dimitris Sotiriadis, B. Margaris, N. Klimis, Ioannis M. Dokas","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4030014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4030014","url":null,"abstract":"Greece is located in one of the most seismically active regions in Europe. Many seismic hazard studies have been performed for various sites around Greece, at a regional or local scale. However, the latest national seismic hazard map, currently used for the seismic design of buildings and infrastructure, was published in 2000 and has not been updated since then. In light of recent advances in seismic source and ground motion modeling, the present study focuses on a comparative Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the region of East Macedonia and Thrace (EMTH), located in Northern Greece. Various seismic source models are implemented and compared against an updated earthquake catalog to form the necessary source model logic tree. The ground motion logic tree is composed of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which have been proven suitable for implementation in Greece. PSHA results are presented for the most important cities of East Macedonia and Thrace in a comparative way, which highlights the variability of the seismic hazard among the various seismic source models. An updated seismic hazard map of the study area is proposed, and a comparative disaggregation analysis is performed to estimate the earthquake scenarios with the largest contribution to the seismic hazard.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84024528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-26DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2222371
Negin Yousefpour, Oscar Correa
Scour is the number one cause of bridge failure in many parts of the world. Considering the lack of reliability in existing empirical equations for scour depth estimation and the complexity and uncertainty of scour as a physical phenomenon, it is essential to develop more reliable solutions for scour risk assessment. This study introduces a novel AI approach for early forecast of scour based on real-time monitoring data obtained from sonar and stage sensors installed at bridge piers. Long-short Term Memory networks (LSTMs), a prominent Deep Learning algorithm successfully used for time-series forecasting in other fields, were developed and trained using river stage and bed elevation readings for more than 11 years, obtained from Alaska scour monitoring programme. The capability of the AI models in scour prediction is shown for three case-study bridges. Results show that LSTMs can capture the temporal and seasonal patterns of both flow and river bed variations around bridge piers, through cycles of scour and filling and can provide reasonable predictions of upcoming scour depth as early as seven days in advance. It is expected that the proposed solution can be implemented by transportation authorities for development of emerging AI-based early warning systems, enabling superior bridge scour management.
{"title":"Towards an AI-based early warning system for bridge scour","authors":"Negin Yousefpour, Oscar Correa","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2222371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2222371","url":null,"abstract":"Scour is the number one cause of bridge failure in many parts of the world. Considering the lack of reliability in existing empirical equations for scour depth estimation and the complexity and uncertainty of scour as a physical phenomenon, it is essential to develop more reliable solutions for scour risk assessment. This study introduces a novel AI approach for early forecast of scour based on real-time monitoring data obtained from sonar and stage sensors installed at bridge piers. Long-short Term Memory networks (LSTMs), a prominent Deep Learning algorithm successfully used for time-series forecasting in other fields, were developed and trained using river stage and bed elevation readings for more than 11 years, obtained from Alaska scour monitoring programme. The capability of the AI models in scour prediction is shown for three case-study bridges. Results show that LSTMs can capture the temporal and seasonal patterns of both flow and river bed variations around bridge piers, through cycles of scour and filling and can provide reasonable predictions of upcoming scour depth as early as seven days in advance. It is expected that the proposed solution can be implemented by transportation authorities for development of emerging AI-based early warning systems, enabling superior bridge scour management.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135557030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2222366
W. Luo, J. Li, Y. H. Fan
ABSTRACT The influence of spatial variability of soils on spudcan penetration responses is found significant through numerical methods. However, due to the difficulty of preparing spatially variable soils, the penetration mechanism of the spudcan through random soils remains physically unclear. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects of the spatial variability of soils on the penetration behaviour of spudcan foundations by laboratory tests. A new method to prepare the spatially variable soils was proposed first. Then, three physical soil models with different scales of fluctuation and coefficients of variation were carefully prepared. The spudcan penetration was conducted in these three soil models and the penetration mechanism of the spudcan was investigated. The penetration resistances of the three cases were obtained and compared with that predicted by the methods suggested by ISO and SNAME standards. The results show that the predicted error of the penetration resistance can reach 50% when the soils have a large coefficient of variation and a small horizontal scale of fluctuation. The large difference is the significant spatial variability that has been ignored in the standards. This study paves the way to an accurate prediction of the spudcan penetration analysis in strong variable soil seabed.
{"title":"Experimental modelling of spudcan penetration in spatially variable soils","authors":"W. Luo, J. Li, Y. H. Fan","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2222366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2222366","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The influence of spatial variability of soils on spudcan penetration responses is found significant through numerical methods. However, due to the difficulty of preparing spatially variable soils, the penetration mechanism of the spudcan through random soils remains physically unclear. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects of the spatial variability of soils on the penetration behaviour of spudcan foundations by laboratory tests. A new method to prepare the spatially variable soils was proposed first. Then, three physical soil models with different scales of fluctuation and coefficients of variation were carefully prepared. The spudcan penetration was conducted in these three soil models and the penetration mechanism of the spudcan was investigated. The penetration resistances of the three cases were obtained and compared with that predicted by the methods suggested by ISO and SNAME standards. The results show that the predicted error of the penetration resistance can reach 50% when the soils have a large coefficient of variation and a small horizontal scale of fluctuation. The large difference is the significant spatial variability that has been ignored in the standards. This study paves the way to an accurate prediction of the spudcan penetration analysis in strong variable soil seabed.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48546704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2222392
Yu-Xin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Gang Fan, Jia‐wen Zhou, H. Xing
ABSTRACT As debris flow disasters are becoming increasingly severe worldwide, it is necessary to deepen the research on disaster losses, especially the impact and role of disaster mitigation measures. Based on the regional disaster system theory, this paper sets an influencing factor system of debris flow losses. Then, from the perspective of networked risk, the risk propagation network is established through the Delphi method. Finally, the social network analysis method is introduced to discuss the risk propagation relationship between these factors from two aspects of the overall network analysis and node centrality analysis. The results reveal the chain-like influence characteristics of factors and clarify the main points relevant departments should emphasise in disaster risk reduction. Environmental and engineering mitigation measures strongly influence other factors, thus dominating the risk propagation in forming debris flow losses. The peril of debris flow, residents’ escape ability, and emergency rescue can be easily influenced by other factors, so increasing the resistance of these sensitive factors to the source of influence would support loss reduction. The research results can be applied to risk assessment and loss reduction of debris flow disasters.
{"title":"A networked risk perspective for analysing debris flow losses factors considering mitigation measures","authors":"Yu-Xin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Gang Fan, Jia‐wen Zhou, H. Xing","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2222392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2222392","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT As debris flow disasters are becoming increasingly severe worldwide, it is necessary to deepen the research on disaster losses, especially the impact and role of disaster mitigation measures. Based on the regional disaster system theory, this paper sets an influencing factor system of debris flow losses. Then, from the perspective of networked risk, the risk propagation network is established through the Delphi method. Finally, the social network analysis method is introduced to discuss the risk propagation relationship between these factors from two aspects of the overall network analysis and node centrality analysis. The results reveal the chain-like influence characteristics of factors and clarify the main points relevant departments should emphasise in disaster risk reduction. Environmental and engineering mitigation measures strongly influence other factors, thus dominating the risk propagation in forming debris flow losses. The peril of debris flow, residents’ escape ability, and emergency rescue can be easily influenced by other factors, so increasing the resistance of these sensitive factors to the source of influence would support loss reduction. The research results can be applied to risk assessment and loss reduction of debris flow disasters.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43588493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2225165
Zheng Guan, Yu Wang
{"title":"Risk-informed adaptive sampling strategy for liquefaction severity mapping","authors":"Zheng Guan, Yu Wang","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2225165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2225165","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46957089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4030013
K. Goda
Tsunami hazard analysis is an essential step for designing buildings and infrastructure and for safeguarding people and assets in coastal areas. Coastal communities on Vancouver Island are under threat from the Cascadia megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis. Due to the deterministic nature of current megathrust earthquake scenarios, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis has not been conducted for the coast of Vancouver Island. To address this research gap, this study presents a new probabilistic tsunami hazard model for Vancouver Island from the Cascadia megathrust subduction events. To account for uncertainties of the possible rupture scenarios more comprehensively, time-dependent earthquake occurrence modeling and stochastic rupture modeling are integrated. The time-dependent earthquake model can capture a multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival time data on the Cascadia megathrust events. On the other hand, the stochastic rupture model can consider variable fault geometry, position, and earthquake slip distribution within the subduction zone. The results indicate that the consideration of different inter-arrival time distributions can result in noticeable differences in terms of site-specific tsunami hazard curves and uniform tsunami hazard curves at different return period levels. At present, the use of the one-component renewal model tends to overestimate the tsunami hazard values compared to the three-component Gaussian mixture model. With the increase in the elapsed time since the last event and the duration of tsunami hazard assessment, the differences tend to be smaller. Inspecting the regional variability of the tsunami hazards, specific segments of the Vancouver Island coast are likely to experience higher tsunami hazards due to the directed tsunami waves from the main subduction zone and due to the local underwater topography.
{"title":"Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for Vancouver Island Coast Using Stochastic Rupture Models for the Cascadia Subduction Earthquakes","authors":"K. Goda","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4030013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4030013","url":null,"abstract":"Tsunami hazard analysis is an essential step for designing buildings and infrastructure and for safeguarding people and assets in coastal areas. Coastal communities on Vancouver Island are under threat from the Cascadia megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis. Due to the deterministic nature of current megathrust earthquake scenarios, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis has not been conducted for the coast of Vancouver Island. To address this research gap, this study presents a new probabilistic tsunami hazard model for Vancouver Island from the Cascadia megathrust subduction events. To account for uncertainties of the possible rupture scenarios more comprehensively, time-dependent earthquake occurrence modeling and stochastic rupture modeling are integrated. The time-dependent earthquake model can capture a multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival time data on the Cascadia megathrust events. On the other hand, the stochastic rupture model can consider variable fault geometry, position, and earthquake slip distribution within the subduction zone. The results indicate that the consideration of different inter-arrival time distributions can result in noticeable differences in terms of site-specific tsunami hazard curves and uniform tsunami hazard curves at different return period levels. At present, the use of the one-component renewal model tends to overestimate the tsunami hazard values compared to the three-component Gaussian mixture model. With the increase in the elapsed time since the last event and the duration of tsunami hazard assessment, the differences tend to be smaller. Inspecting the regional variability of the tsunami hazards, specific segments of the Vancouver Island coast are likely to experience higher tsunami hazards due to the directed tsunami waves from the main subduction zone and due to the local underwater topography.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78403535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-19DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2225178
Xiaole Dong, Xiaohui Tan, W. Guo, Kai Zhong, Xiaoliang Hou, Haichun Ma
{"title":"Reliability analysis of pile group in spatially variable unsaturated expansive soil based on load transfer method","authors":"Xiaole Dong, Xiaohui Tan, W. Guo, Kai Zhong, Xiaoliang Hou, Haichun Ma","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2225178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2225178","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48198171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-15DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2222540
Teun van Woerkom, M. G. van der Krogt, M. Bierkens
ABSTRACT The time-dependent response of pore water pressures during floods largely determines the safety against geotechnical failure of dikes, which is deemed to be highly dependent on the uncertain shape (duration, maximum height, etc.) of the flood discharge wave. This paper derives the uncertainty of flood wave shape from a database of precalculated hydrographs (GRADE) and evaluates the effect of shape variability on probabilistic safety estimates of slope stability, using a modelling chain consisting of a transient hydrological model (MODFLOW) and a probabilistic dike slope safety assessment (FORM). Accounting for flood wave uncertainty with transient groundwater flow generally leads to higher reliability estimates for slope stability, compared to the steady-state groundwater condition and other conservative assumptions, but to lower reliability estimates compared to a single design flood wave. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the flood wave shape can be as important as the uncertainty in geotechnical properties. For landside dike slope stability, the volume of the flood wave is the most important factor, while riverside slope stability depends mainly on the total water level drop after the peak. These two waveform characteristics are thus essential uncertainties to consider in probabilistic assessments of dike safety with transient groundwater conditions.
{"title":"Effects of flood wave shape on probabilistic slope stability of dikes under transient groundwater conditions","authors":"Teun van Woerkom, M. G. van der Krogt, M. Bierkens","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2222540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2222540","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The time-dependent response of pore water pressures during floods largely determines the safety against geotechnical failure of dikes, which is deemed to be highly dependent on the uncertain shape (duration, maximum height, etc.) of the flood discharge wave. This paper derives the uncertainty of flood wave shape from a database of precalculated hydrographs (GRADE) and evaluates the effect of shape variability on probabilistic safety estimates of slope stability, using a modelling chain consisting of a transient hydrological model (MODFLOW) and a probabilistic dike slope safety assessment (FORM). Accounting for flood wave uncertainty with transient groundwater flow generally leads to higher reliability estimates for slope stability, compared to the steady-state groundwater condition and other conservative assumptions, but to lower reliability estimates compared to a single design flood wave. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the flood wave shape can be as important as the uncertainty in geotechnical properties. For landside dike slope stability, the volume of the flood wave is the most important factor, while riverside slope stability depends mainly on the total water level drop after the peak. These two waveform characteristics are thus essential uncertainties to consider in probabilistic assessments of dike safety with transient groundwater conditions.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48866101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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