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On the use of different data assimilation schemes in a fully coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability analysis 不同资料同化方法在水-力全耦合边坡稳定性分析中的应用
3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2258607
Muhammad Mohsan, Femke C. Vossepoel, Philip J. Vardon
Different data assimilation schemes such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), ensemble smoother (ES) and ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) are implemented in a hydro-mechanical slope stability analysis. For a synthetic case, these schemes assimilate displacements at the crest and the slope to estimate strength and stiffness parameters. These estimated parameters are then used to estimate the system's state and factor of safety (FoS). The results show that EnKF provides an FoS estimation with a mean close to the truth and with the smallest standard deviation, with ESMDA using the largest amount of assimilation steps also providing a mean close to the truth but with less confidence. The ES and ESMDA with fewer assimilation steps underestimate the FoS approximation and have low confidence. Assimilating measurements over a longer period provides a more accurate parameter, state and FoS estimation. ES has the best computational performance, with ESMDA performing worse, with its performance dependent on the number of assimilation steps. The computational performance of the EnKF is better than ESMDA but around 50% worse than the ES. Non-linearity of the underlying problem is a key cause of the multi-step assimilation processes having a better performance.
在水力学边坡稳定性分析中,采用了集成卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)、集成平滑(ES)和多数据同化集成平滑(ESMDA)等不同的数据同化方案。对于一个综合情况,这些方案吸收了顶部和斜坡处的位移来估计强度和刚度参数。然后使用这些估计参数来估计系统的状态和安全系数(FoS)。结果表明,EnKF提供了一个接近真实值的均值和最小标准差的FoS估计,而ESMDA使用了最大的同化步骤,也提供了一个接近真实值的均值,但置信度较低。同化步数较少的ES和ESMDA低估了FoS近似值,置信度较低。在较长时间内吸收测量值可以提供更准确的参数、状态和FoS估计。ES的计算性能最好,ESMDA的计算性能较差,其性能与同化步数有关。EnKF的计算性能优于ESMDA,但比ES差50%左右。底层问题的非线性是多步同化过程具有较好性能的关键原因。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis on the volume expansion effect and influencing factors on loess landslides: a case study of the Heifangtai tableland in the Chinese Loess Plateau 黄土滑坡的体积膨胀效应及影响因素分析——以中国黄土高原黑方台塬为例
3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2257201
Jia-xu Kong, Jian-qi Zhuang, Jian-bing Peng, Peng-hui Ma, Jie-wei Zhan, Jia-qi Mu, Jie Wang, Zuo-peng Wang
ABSTRACTLandslide scale measurement and hazard risk assessment are crucial, especially since landslide deposits often have an expansion effect, and can lead to more serious secondary hazard events. In this study, we obtained substantial high-resolution terrain and orthophoto data through multiple UAV photography and field surveys. Based on GIS spatial analysis and landslide geometric models, sliding and deposit data for 42 loess landslides in the Heifangtai tableland were calculated. The results show that sliding volume and sliding area have the highest correlation with the power-law distribution (Ve=1.204A1.1360). The ratio of Hmax/Lmax increases with the increase of sliding volume and deposit volume of the landslides, with an average value of 0.306. The ratio of H/L has a higher correlation with deposit volume, and the fitting expression is Hmax/Lmax=0.187VD−0.123. The VEC of 42 loess landslides ranged from 1.05 to 2.53, while the AVEC was about 1.503. The correlation analysis show that the VEC is positively correlated with AEC, Hmov, Hmov/Lmax and Lmov/Lmax but negatively correlated with Dave. The essence of the volume expansion effect is that landslide fluidity increases, resulting in looser deposit distribution, larger pore scale in the deposit and lower overall compaction. Loess collapse in the Heifangtai tableland lack protection from the liquefaction of the sliding mass basement, resulting in large VEC values. The semi-ellipsoid model is a valuable approach for landslide volume assessment in the Chinese Loess Plateau, yielding an average error rate of restoring the sliding volume of landslides of 13.55%. This study provides a useful reference for accurate evaluations at the landslide scale.KEYWORDS: Heifangtai tablelandLoess landslidevolume expansion effectUAV surveytopography and geometry of landslide AcknowledgementsThe authors are very grateful to the anonymous reviewers and editors for their thoughtful review comments and suggestions which have significantly improved this paper. This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China: 42090053, 41922054, 42207197, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CHD, 300102262713.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Conflict of interestThe authors declare no competing interests.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China: [Grant Number 42090053, 41922054, 42207197]; the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CHD: [Grant Number 300102262713].
摘要滑坡规模测量和灾害风险评估至关重要,特别是由于滑坡堆积物往往具有扩展效应,并可能导致更严重的次生灾害事件。在本研究中,我们通过多次无人机摄影和实地调查获得了大量高分辨率地形和正射影像数据。基于GIS空间分析和滑坡几何模型,计算了黑房台塬区42个黄土滑坡的滑动沉降数据。结果表明,滑动体积和滑动面积与幂律分布的相关性最高(Ve=1.204A1.1360)。Hmax/Lmax比值随滑坡滑动量和堆积量的增加而增大,平均值为0.306。H/L比值与沉积物体积有较高的相关性,拟合表达式为Hmax/Lmax=0.187VD−0.123。42个黄土滑坡的VEC在1.05 ~ 2.53之间,AVEC在1.503左右。相关分析表明,VEC与AEC、Hmov、Hmov/Lmax、Lmov/Lmax呈正相关,与Dave呈负相关。体积膨胀效应的实质是滑坡流动性增大,导致沉积物分布疏松,沉积物孔隙规模增大,整体压实度降低。黑房台塬区黄土塌陷缺乏对滑块基底液化的保护,导致VEC值较大。半椭球体模型是黄土高原滑坡体积评估的一种有价值的方法,恢复滑坡滑动体积的平均错误率为13.55%。该研究为滑坡尺度上的准确评价提供了有益的参考。关键词:黑房台塬;黄土滑坡;体积膨胀效应;国家自然科学基金项目:42090053,41922054,42207197;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CHD, 300102262713)资助。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。利益冲突作者声明没有利益冲突。本研究得到国家自然科学基金资助:[资助号:42090053,41922054,42207197];中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金[批准号:300102262713]。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability assessment of open-source multiscale landslide susceptibility maps and effects of their fusion 开源多尺度滑坡易发性图的可靠性评估及其融合效果
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2251139
G. Mastrantoni, G. M. Marmoni, C. Esposito, F. Bozzano, G. Scarascia Mugnozza, P. Mazzanti
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引用次数: 1
Early detection of internal erosion in earth dams: combining seismic monitoring and convolutional AutoEncoders 土坝内部侵蚀的早期检测:结合地震监测和卷积自编码器
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2251128
N. Yousefpour, Farid Fazel Mojtahedi
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引用次数: 0
Deaggregation of probabilistic seismic hazard results for some selected cities in Western Mexico 墨西哥西部一些选定城市的概率地震危险性结果的解聚
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2251125
R. Sawires, J. Peláez, M. Santoyo
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引用次数: 0
Non-Stationary Flood Discharge Frequency Analysis in West Africa 西非非平稳洪水流量频率分析
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-11 DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4030018
A. Bossa, Jean de Dieu Akpaca, Jean Hounkpè, Yacouba Yira, D. F. Badou
With climate change and intensification of the hydrological cycle, the stationarity of hydrological variables is becoming questionable, requiring appropriate flood assessment models. Frequency analysis is widely used for flood forecasting. This study aims to determine the most suitable models (stationary and non-stationary) for estimating the maximum flows observed at some stations spread across West Africa. A statistical analysis of the annual maximum flows in terms of homogeneity, stationarity, and independence was carried out through the Pettitt, modified Mann–Kendall, and Wald–Wolfowitz tests, respectively, to identify the stations whose flows are non-stationary. After that, the best-correlated climate covariates with the annual maximum flows of the non-stationary stations were determined. The covariates explored are the climatic indices of sea surface temperatures (SST). Finally, different non-stationary GEV models were derived by varying the scale and position parameters of the best-correlated index for each station. The results indicate that 56% of the annual maximum flow series are non-stationary. As per the Bayes information criterion (BIC) values, the performance of the non-stationary models (GEV, generalized extreme values) is largely greater than that of the stationary models. These good performances of non-stationary models using climatic indices open perspectives for the prediction of extreme flows in the study area.
随着气候变化和水文循环的加剧,水文变量的平稳性受到质疑,需要适当的洪水评估模型。频率分析被广泛应用于洪水预报。这项研究的目的是确定最合适的模型(平稳和非平稳)来估计在西非分布的一些站点观测到的最大流量。通过Pettitt检验、修正Mann-Kendall检验和Wald-Wolfowitz检验分别对年最大流量的同质性、平稳性和独立性进行统计分析,以确定流量是非平稳的站点。在此基础上,确定了与非平稳站年最大流量相关性最好的气候协变量。研究的协变量是海温(SST)的气候指数。最后,通过改变各站点最佳相关指标的尺度和位置参数,推导出不同的非平稳GEV模型。结果表明,年最大流量序列中有56%是非平稳的。根据贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)值,非平稳模型(GEV,广义极值)的性能大大优于平稳模型。使用气候指数的非平稳模型的这些良好性能为研究区极端流量的预测开辟了前景。
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引用次数: 1
Traditional Nomadism Offers Adaptive Capacity to Northern Mongolian Geohazards 传统游牧对蒙古北部地质灾害的适应能力
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-11 DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4030019
Gabrielle L. Moreau, K. Nyland, V. Kuklina
Mongolia’s northernmost province, Khövsgöl Aimag, famous for its massive Lake Khövsgöl set among the mountainous steppe, taiga, and tundra forests, increasingly attracts both domestic and international tourists. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Mongolia received over 500,000 tourists annually. The aimag is also home to Indigenous, nomadic Dukha reindeer herders and semi-nomadic Darkhad cattle herders. Using a multidisciplinary approach, this study uses an analytical hierarchy process to map areas in Khövsgöl Aimag, where the infrastructure, including buildings, dwellings, formal and informal roads, and pastureland, is subject to geohazards. The hazards of interest to this mapping analysis include mass wasting, flooding, and permafrost thawing, which threaten roads, pastures, houses, and other community infrastructure in Khövsgöl Aimag. Based on the integrated infrastructure risk map, an estimated 23% of the aimag is at high to very high risk for localized geohazards. After a discussion of the results informed by the interviews, mobile ethnographies, and local and national land use policies, we postulate that communities exercising more traditional nomadic lifestyles with higher mobility are more resilient to these primarily localized geohazards.
蒙古最北部的省份,Khövsgöl艾马格,以其巨大的湖Khövsgöl而闻名,该湖位于山区草原,针叶林和苔原森林之间,越来越多地吸引着国内外游客。新冠肺炎疫情前,蒙古每年接待游客超过50万人次。aimag也是土著、游牧的Dukha驯鹿牧民和半游牧的Darkhad牛牧民的家园。本研究采用多学科方法,采用层次分析法绘制了Khövsgöl Aimag的基础设施(包括建筑物、住宅、正式和非正式道路以及牧场)易受地质灾害影响的区域。地图分析中涉及的危害包括大规模的浪费、洪水和永久冻土融化,这些威胁到Khövsgöl Aimag的道路、牧场、房屋和其他社区基础设施。根据综合基础设施风险图,估计23%的目标处于局部地质灾害的高至极高风险。在对访谈、流动民族志以及地方和国家土地使用政策的结果进行讨论后,我们假设,采用更传统的游牧生活方式、流动性更高的社区对这些主要是局部地质灾害的抵御能力更强。
{"title":"Traditional Nomadism Offers Adaptive Capacity to Northern Mongolian Geohazards","authors":"Gabrielle L. Moreau, K. Nyland, V. Kuklina","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4030019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4030019","url":null,"abstract":"Mongolia’s northernmost province, Khövsgöl Aimag, famous for its massive Lake Khövsgöl set among the mountainous steppe, taiga, and tundra forests, increasingly attracts both domestic and international tourists. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Mongolia received over 500,000 tourists annually. The aimag is also home to Indigenous, nomadic Dukha reindeer herders and semi-nomadic Darkhad cattle herders. Using a multidisciplinary approach, this study uses an analytical hierarchy process to map areas in Khövsgöl Aimag, where the infrastructure, including buildings, dwellings, formal and informal roads, and pastureland, is subject to geohazards. The hazards of interest to this mapping analysis include mass wasting, flooding, and permafrost thawing, which threaten roads, pastures, houses, and other community infrastructure in Khövsgöl Aimag. Based on the integrated infrastructure risk map, an estimated 23% of the aimag is at high to very high risk for localized geohazards. After a discussion of the results informed by the interviews, mobile ethnographies, and local and national land use policies, we postulate that communities exercising more traditional nomadic lifestyles with higher mobility are more resilient to these primarily localized geohazards.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85199091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Implicit modelling and dynamic update of tunnel unfavourable geology based on multi-source data fusion using support vector machine 基于支持向量机多源数据融合的隧道不良地质隐式建模与动态更新
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2239778
Binru Yang, Yuling Ding, Qing Zhu, Liguo Zhang, Haoyu Wu, Yongxin Guo, Mingwei Liu, Wei Wang
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引用次数: 1
Slope Failure and Landslide Detection in Huangdao District of Qingdao City Based on an Improved Faster R-CNN Model 基于改进更快R-CNN模型的青岛市黄岛区边坡破坏与滑坡检测
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4030017
Yong Guan, Lili Yu, Shengyou Hao, Linsen Li, Xiaotong Zhang, M. Hao
To reduce the significant losses caused by slope failures and landslides, it is of great significance to detect and predict these disasters scientifically. This study focused on Huangdao District of Qingdao City in Shandong Province, using the improved Faster R-CNN network to detect slope failures and landslides. This study introduced a multi-scale feature enhancement module into the Faster R-CNN model. The module enhances the network’s perception of different scales of slope failures and landslides by deeply fusing high-resolution weak semantic features with low-resolution strong semantic features. Our experiments show that the improved Faster R-CNN model outperformed the traditional version, and that ResNet50 performed better than VGG16 with an AP value of 90.68%, F1 value of 0.94, recall value of 90.68%, and precision value of 98.17%. While the targets predicted by VGG16 were more dispersed and the false detection rate was higher than that of ResNet50, VGG16 was shown to have an advantage in predicting small-scale slope failures and landslides. The trained Faster R-CNN network model detected geological hazards of slope failure and landslide in Huangdao District, missing only two landslides, thereby demonstrating high detection accuracy. This method can provide an effective technical means for slope failures and landslides target detection and has practical implications.
为了减少边坡破坏和滑坡造成的重大损失,科学地检测和预测这些灾害具有重要意义。本研究以山东省青岛市黄岛区为研究对象,采用改进的Faster R-CNN网络对边坡破坏和滑坡进行检测。本研究在Faster R-CNN模型中引入了多尺度特征增强模块。该模块通过深度融合高分辨率弱语义特征和低分辨率强语义特征,增强网络对不同尺度边坡破坏和滑坡的感知能力。我们的实验表明,改进的Faster R-CNN模型优于传统版本,并且ResNet50的AP值为90.68%,F1值为0.94,召回值为90.68%,精度值为98.17%,优于VGG16。与ResNet50相比,VGG16预测的目标更分散,误检率更高,但VGG16在预测小规模边坡破坏和滑坡方面具有优势。训练后的Faster R-CNN网络模型对黄岛地区的边坡破坏和滑坡地质灾害进行了检测,仅遗漏了2个滑坡,检测精度较高。该方法可为边坡破坏和滑坡目标检测提供有效的技术手段,具有实际应用价值。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental Investigation of Levee Erosion during Overflow and Infiltration with Varied Hydraulic Conductivities of Levee and Foundation Properties in Saturated Conditions 饱和条件下随堤防水力导率及地基特性变化的堤防溢入渗侵蚀试验研究
IF 4.8 3区 工程技术 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4030016
Liaqat Ali, N. Tanaka
This study investigated erosion during infiltration and overflow events and considered different grain sizes and hydraulic conductivity properties; four experimental cases were conducted under saturated conditions. The importance of understanding flow regimes during overflow experiments including their distinct flow characteristics, shear stresses, and erosion mechanisms in assessing the potential for levee failure are discussed. The failure mechanism of levee slopes during infiltration experiments involves progressive collapse due to piping followed by increased liquefaction and loss of shear stress, with the failure progression dependent on the permeability of the foundation material and shear strength. The infiltration experiments illustrate that the rate of failure varied based on the permeability of the foundation material. In the case of IO-E7-F5, where the levee had No. 7 sand in the embankment and No. 5 sand in the foundation (lower permeability), the failure was slower and limited. It took around 90 min for 65% of the downstream slope to fail, allowing more time for response measures. On the other hand, in the case of IO-E8-F4, with No. 8 sand in the embankment and No. 4 sand in the foundation (higher hydraulic conductivity), the failure was rapid and extensive. The whole downstream slope failed within just 18 min, and the collapse extended to 75% of the levee crest. These findings emphasize the need for proactive measures to strengthen vulnerable sections of levees and reduce the risk of extensive failure.
研究了入渗和溢流过程中的侵蚀,并考虑了不同粒度和水力导电性;在饱和条件下进行了4例实验。讨论了在溢流实验中了解流态的重要性,包括其独特的流动特征、剪切应力和侵蚀机制,以评估堤防破坏的潜力。在入渗试验中,堤防边坡的破坏机制是由于管道的作用而逐渐坍塌,随后液化增加和剪切应力损失,破坏的进展取决于地基材料的渗透性和抗剪强度。入渗试验表明,破坏速率随地基材料的渗透性而变化。在IO-E7-F5堤防中,堤堤中有7号砂,地基中有5号砂(渗透性较低),破坏速度较慢且有限。大约90分钟后,下游65%的斜坡坍塌,为采取应对措施留出了更多时间。另一方面,在IO-E8-F4的情况下,路基中有8号砂,地基中有4号砂(水导率更高),破坏迅速而广泛。整个下游坡面在18分钟内坍塌,坍塌幅度达到防洪堤波峰的75%。这些发现强调需要采取积极措施来加强堤坝的脆弱部分,减少大面积破坏的风险。
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引用次数: 0
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Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards
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