Pub Date : 2023-06-15DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2222368
Bin Li, Lianyu Zhang, Jinquan Yuan
{"title":"A simple Monte Carlo simulation method for geotechnical reliability-based design","authors":"Bin Li, Lianyu Zhang, Jinquan Yuan","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2222368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2222368","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44856032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-12DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2222369
M. Palese, Te Pei, T. Qiu, A. Zarembski, Chaopeng Shen, J. Palese
ABSTRACT Transportation corridors constructed using through- and side-cuts are susceptible to hazardous slope failures, potentially causing infrastructure damage, operational suspensions and loss of life. To monitor the stability of known geohazards at the local scale, geotechnical investigation of each slope is typically performed to calculate a factor of safety. In many corridors, however, this method is labour-intensive due to the quantity of geohazards and statistical methods are instead used to identify hazardous sections. This paper introduces a new slope failure hazard assessment technique, utilising susceptibility mapping of geospatial information and computer vision-based analysis of right-of-way videos recorded by railroad track inspection vehicles, applied to a section of railroad track near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Combining these results, an enhanced relative hazard assessment algorithm was formulated. Using the developed framework, geohazards of primary concern were determined which should be prioritised for future geotechnical investigation and remediation efforts.
{"title":"Hazard assessment framework for statistical analysis of cut slopes using track inspection videos and geospatial information","authors":"M. Palese, Te Pei, T. Qiu, A. Zarembski, Chaopeng Shen, J. Palese","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2222369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2222369","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Transportation corridors constructed using through- and side-cuts are susceptible to hazardous slope failures, potentially causing infrastructure damage, operational suspensions and loss of life. To monitor the stability of known geohazards at the local scale, geotechnical investigation of each slope is typically performed to calculate a factor of safety. In many corridors, however, this method is labour-intensive due to the quantity of geohazards and statistical methods are instead used to identify hazardous sections. This paper introduces a new slope failure hazard assessment technique, utilising susceptibility mapping of geospatial information and computer vision-based analysis of right-of-way videos recorded by railroad track inspection vehicles, applied to a section of railroad track near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Combining these results, an enhanced relative hazard assessment algorithm was formulated. Using the developed framework, geohazards of primary concern were determined which should be prioritised for future geotechnical investigation and remediation efforts.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43434388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-12DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2222383
Yu Wang, Borui Lyu, Chao Shi, Yue Hu
{"title":"Non-parametric simulation of random field samples from incomplete measurements using generative adversarial networks","authors":"Yu Wang, Borui Lyu, Chao Shi, Yue Hu","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2222383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2222383","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42712725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-08DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4020012
E. Papageorgiou, M. Foumelis, A. Mouratidis
With the increasing availability and diversity of satellite imagery, the multisensor fusion of data can more effectively address the improved monitoring of temporary water bodies. This study supports the attempt to apply well established methods to detect spatial and temporal changes in ephemeral shallow lakes in lowland karst terrain, as well as to improve the understanding concerning the dynamics of water storage and hydrological mechanisms during extreme precipitation events. Based on the joint analysis of Copernicus Sentinel SAR and optical mission data, as well as soil moisture and EO-based rainfall observations over the period of 2015–2020, we demonstrated the control of the karst system on the ephemeral lake appearances in the broader area of Chalkida (Evvia, Greece). A connection between the prolonged and extended water coverage in the ephemeral lakes and flooding in the area is documented. Our EO-supported findings may serve as indicators for flood alerts in future extreme precipitation events, improving responses in cases of emergencies.
{"title":"Earth Observation Data Synergy for the Enhanced Monitoring of Ephemeral Water Bodies to Anticipate Karst-Related Flooding","authors":"E. Papageorgiou, M. Foumelis, A. Mouratidis","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020012","url":null,"abstract":"With the increasing availability and diversity of satellite imagery, the multisensor fusion of data can more effectively address the improved monitoring of temporary water bodies. This study supports the attempt to apply well established methods to detect spatial and temporal changes in ephemeral shallow lakes in lowland karst terrain, as well as to improve the understanding concerning the dynamics of water storage and hydrological mechanisms during extreme precipitation events. Based on the joint analysis of Copernicus Sentinel SAR and optical mission data, as well as soil moisture and EO-based rainfall observations over the period of 2015–2020, we demonstrated the control of the karst system on the ephemeral lake appearances in the broader area of Chalkida (Evvia, Greece). A connection between the prolonged and extended water coverage in the ephemeral lakes and flooding in the area is documented. Our EO-supported findings may serve as indicators for flood alerts in future extreme precipitation events, improving responses in cases of emergencies.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79194826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-16DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4020011
N. Bollot, Guillaume Pierre, G. Grandjean, G. Fronteau, A. Devos, O. Lejeune
The Jacotines landslide is representative of the large mass movements that affect the Champagne vineyards. Understanding the subsurface structure of these slopes and the mechanisms leading to sliding events is of a great interest, particularly for winegrowers who produce Champagne. This knowledge is generally used to elaborate accurate hazard assessment maps, which is an important feature in land use planning. The approach presented is based on the integration of geophysical imaging (seismic wave velocity and electrical resistivity), lithostratigraphic analysis (drilling core) and geomorphological investigations (surface landforms) to reconstruct the relations between the landslide structure, surface water flow, groundwater regime and the overall slope stability. A first phase of instability resulting in a large rotational slip probably occurred during the Late Glacial Period in morphoclimatic conditions characterized by an excess of water. A second one, still active, leading to superficial reactivations and relates to present hydrogeological conditions determined by the internal structure of the landslide.
{"title":"Internal Structure and Reactivations of a Mass Movement: The Case Study of the Jacotines Landslide (Champagne Vineyards, France)","authors":"N. Bollot, Guillaume Pierre, G. Grandjean, G. Fronteau, A. Devos, O. Lejeune","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020011","url":null,"abstract":"The Jacotines landslide is representative of the large mass movements that affect the Champagne vineyards. Understanding the subsurface structure of these slopes and the mechanisms leading to sliding events is of a great interest, particularly for winegrowers who produce Champagne. This knowledge is generally used to elaborate accurate hazard assessment maps, which is an important feature in land use planning. The approach presented is based on the integration of geophysical imaging (seismic wave velocity and electrical resistivity), lithostratigraphic analysis (drilling core) and geomorphological investigations (surface landforms) to reconstruct the relations between the landslide structure, surface water flow, groundwater regime and the overall slope stability. A first phase of instability resulting in a large rotational slip probably occurred during the Late Glacial Period in morphoclimatic conditions characterized by an excess of water. A second one, still active, leading to superficial reactivations and relates to present hydrogeological conditions determined by the internal structure of the landslide.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79493253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4020010
Zhijun Wang, Zhuofan Chen, Ke Ma, Zuoxiong Zhang
In the mapping and assessment of mountain hazard susceptibility using machine learning models, the selection of model parameters plays a critical role in the accuracy of predicting models. In this study, we present a novel approach for developing a prediction model based on random forest (RF) by incorporating ensembles of hyperparameter optimization. The performance of the RF model is enhanced by employing a Bayesian optimization (Bayes) method and a genetic algorithm (GA) and verified in the Wudu section of the Bailong River basin, China, which is a typical hazard-prone, mountainous area. We identified fourteen influential factors based on field measurements to describe the “avalanche–landslide–debris flow” hazard chains in the study area. We constructed training (80%) and validation (20%) datasets for 378 hazard sites. The performance of the models was assessed using standard statistical metrics, including recall, confusion matrix, accuracy, F1, precision, and area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC), based on a multicollinearity analysis and Relief-F two-step evaluation. The results indicate that all three models, i.e., RF, GA-RF, and Bayes-RF, achieved good performance (AUC: 0.89~0.92). The Bayes-RF model outperformed the other two models (AUC = 0.92). Therefore, this model is highly accurate and robust for mountain hazard susceptibility assessment and is useful for the study area as well as other regions. Additionally, stakeholders can use the susceptibility map produced to guide mountain hazard prevention and control measures in the region.
{"title":"Machine-Learning-Based Hybrid Modeling for Geological Hazard Susceptibility Assessment in Wudou District, Bailong River Basin, China","authors":"Zhijun Wang, Zhuofan Chen, Ke Ma, Zuoxiong Zhang","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020010","url":null,"abstract":"In the mapping and assessment of mountain hazard susceptibility using machine learning models, the selection of model parameters plays a critical role in the accuracy of predicting models. In this study, we present a novel approach for developing a prediction model based on random forest (RF) by incorporating ensembles of hyperparameter optimization. The performance of the RF model is enhanced by employing a Bayesian optimization (Bayes) method and a genetic algorithm (GA) and verified in the Wudu section of the Bailong River basin, China, which is a typical hazard-prone, mountainous area. We identified fourteen influential factors based on field measurements to describe the “avalanche–landslide–debris flow” hazard chains in the study area. We constructed training (80%) and validation (20%) datasets for 378 hazard sites. The performance of the models was assessed using standard statistical metrics, including recall, confusion matrix, accuracy, F1, precision, and area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC), based on a multicollinearity analysis and Relief-F two-step evaluation. The results indicate that all three models, i.e., RF, GA-RF, and Bayes-RF, achieved good performance (AUC: 0.89~0.92). The Bayes-RF model outperformed the other two models (AUC = 0.92). Therefore, this model is highly accurate and robust for mountain hazard susceptibility assessment and is useful for the study area as well as other regions. Additionally, stakeholders can use the susceptibility map produced to guide mountain hazard prevention and control measures in the region.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81037488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-27DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4020009
Pablo Vallés, I. Echeverribar, Juan Mairal, S. Martínez-Aranda, J. Fernández-Pato, P. García-Navarro
The computational simulation of rivers is a useful tool that can be applied in a wide range of situations from providing real time alerts to the design of future mitigation plans. However, for all the applications, there are two important requirements when modeling river behavior: accuracy and reasonable computational times. This target has led to recent developments in numerical models based on the full two-dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE). This work presents a GPU accelerated 2D SW model for the simulation of flood events in real time. It is based on a well-balanced explicit first-order finite volume scheme able to run over dry beds without the numerical instabilities that are likely to occur when used in complex topography. The model is applied to reproduce a real event in the reach of the Ebro River (Spain) with a downstream reservoir, in which a study of the most appropriate boundary condition (BC) for modeling of the dam is assessed (time-dependent level condition and weir condition). The whole creation of the model is detailed in terms of mesh optimization and validation. The simulation results are compared with field data over the flood duration (up to 20 days), allowing an analysis of the performance and time saved by different GPU devices and with the different BCs. The high values of fit between observed and simulated results, as well as the computational times achieved, are encouraging to propose the use of the model as a forecasting system.
{"title":"2D Numerical Simulation of Floods in Ebro River and Analysis of Boundary Conditions to Model the Mequinenza Reservoir Dam","authors":"Pablo Vallés, I. Echeverribar, Juan Mairal, S. Martínez-Aranda, J. Fernández-Pato, P. García-Navarro","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020009","url":null,"abstract":"The computational simulation of rivers is a useful tool that can be applied in a wide range of situations from providing real time alerts to the design of future mitigation plans. However, for all the applications, there are two important requirements when modeling river behavior: accuracy and reasonable computational times. This target has led to recent developments in numerical models based on the full two-dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE). This work presents a GPU accelerated 2D SW model for the simulation of flood events in real time. It is based on a well-balanced explicit first-order finite volume scheme able to run over dry beds without the numerical instabilities that are likely to occur when used in complex topography. The model is applied to reproduce a real event in the reach of the Ebro River (Spain) with a downstream reservoir, in which a study of the most appropriate boundary condition (BC) for modeling of the dam is assessed (time-dependent level condition and weir condition). The whole creation of the model is detailed in terms of mesh optimization and validation. The simulation results are compared with field data over the flood duration (up to 20 days), allowing an analysis of the performance and time saved by different GPU devices and with the different BCs. The high values of fit between observed and simulated results, as well as the computational times achieved, are encouraging to propose the use of the model as a forecasting system.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78334617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-23DOI: 10.3390/geohazards4020008
E. Ekpo Johnson, M. Scherwath, K. Moran, S. Dosso, K. Rohr
Offshore basalts, most commonly found as oceanic crust formed at mid-ocean ridges, are estimated to offer an almost unlimited reservoir for CO2 sequestration and are regarded as one of the most durable locations for carbon sequestration since injected CO2 will mineralize, forming carbonate rock. As part of the Solid Carbon project, the potential of the Cascadia Basin, about 200 km off the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, is investigated as a site for geological CO2 sequestration. In anticipation of a demonstration proposed to take place, it is essential to assess the tendency of geologic faults in the area to slip in the presence of CO2 injection, potentially causing seismic events. To understand the viability of the reservoir, a quantitative risk assessment of the proposed site area was conducted. This involved a detailed characterization of the proposed injection site to understand baseline stress and pressure conditions and identify individual faults or fault zones with the potential to slip and thereby generate seismicity. The results indicate that fault slip potential is minimal (less than 1%) for a constant injection of up to ~2.5 MT/yr. This is in part due to the thickness of the basalt aquifer and its permeability. The results provide a reference for assessing the potential earthquake risk from CO2 injection in similar ocean basalt basins.
{"title":"Fault Slip Tendency Analysis for a Deep-Sea Basalt CO2 Injection in the Cascadia Basin","authors":"E. Ekpo Johnson, M. Scherwath, K. Moran, S. Dosso, K. Rohr","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020008","url":null,"abstract":"Offshore basalts, most commonly found as oceanic crust formed at mid-ocean ridges, are estimated to offer an almost unlimited reservoir for CO2 sequestration and are regarded as one of the most durable locations for carbon sequestration since injected CO2 will mineralize, forming carbonate rock. As part of the Solid Carbon project, the potential of the Cascadia Basin, about 200 km off the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, is investigated as a site for geological CO2 sequestration. In anticipation of a demonstration proposed to take place, it is essential to assess the tendency of geologic faults in the area to slip in the presence of CO2 injection, potentially causing seismic events. To understand the viability of the reservoir, a quantitative risk assessment of the proposed site area was conducted. This involved a detailed characterization of the proposed injection site to understand baseline stress and pressure conditions and identify individual faults or fault zones with the potential to slip and thereby generate seismicity. The results indicate that fault slip potential is minimal (less than 1%) for a constant injection of up to ~2.5 MT/yr. This is in part due to the thickness of the basalt aquifer and its permeability. The results provide a reference for assessing the potential earthquake risk from CO2 injection in similar ocean basalt basins.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84016618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-17DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2201246
K. Goda, J. Rimando, A. Peace, Navid Sirous, P. Rosset, L. Chouinard
ABSTRACT Earthquakes pose potentially substantial risks to residents in the Western Quebec seismic zone of eastern Canada, where Ottawa and Montreal are located. In eastern Canada, the majority of houses are not constructed to modern seismic standards and most homeowners do not purchase earthquake insurance for their homes. If a devastating earthquake strikes, homeowners would be left unprotected financially. To quantify financial risks to homeowners in the Western Quebec seismic zone, regional earthquake catastrophe models are developed by incorporating up-to-date public information on hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The developed catastrophe models can quantify the expected and upper-tail financial seismic risks by considering a comprehensive list of possible seismic events as well as critical earthquake scenarios based on the latest geological data in the region. The results indicate that regional seismic losses could reach several tens of billions of dollars if a moderate-to-large earthquake occurs near urban centres in the region, such as Montreal and Ottawa. The regional seismic loss estimates produced in this study are useful for informing earthquake risk management strategies, including earthquake insurance and disaster relief policies.
{"title":"Regional seismic loss estimation and critical earthquake scenarios for the Western Quebec seismic zone","authors":"K. Goda, J. Rimando, A. Peace, Navid Sirous, P. Rosset, L. Chouinard","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2201246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2201246","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Earthquakes pose potentially substantial risks to residents in the Western Quebec seismic zone of eastern Canada, where Ottawa and Montreal are located. In eastern Canada, the majority of houses are not constructed to modern seismic standards and most homeowners do not purchase earthquake insurance for their homes. If a devastating earthquake strikes, homeowners would be left unprotected financially. To quantify financial risks to homeowners in the Western Quebec seismic zone, regional earthquake catastrophe models are developed by incorporating up-to-date public information on hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The developed catastrophe models can quantify the expected and upper-tail financial seismic risks by considering a comprehensive list of possible seismic events as well as critical earthquake scenarios based on the latest geological data in the region. The results indicate that regional seismic losses could reach several tens of billions of dollars if a moderate-to-large earthquake occurs near urban centres in the region, such as Montreal and Ottawa. The regional seismic loss estimates produced in this study are useful for informing earthquake risk management strategies, including earthquake insurance and disaster relief policies.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48116222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2023.2201266
L. Gao, Limin Zhang, Yang Hong, Hong-Xin Chen, Shijin Feng
ABSTRACT Apart from the estimation of magnitudes of precipitation, floods and storm surges, modelling of storm water flows in a densely populated urban area is required for designing coping strategies and making decisions. Incorporating surface runoff and conduit flow modelling capabilities has enabled the prediction of urban flood hazards. This study synthesises methodologies for simulating flood processes and evaluating flood hazards in urban environment. Existing models and their associated uncertainties are summarised, and state-of-the-art techniques to build up a numerical model for simulating urban floods and the applications to specific cases are illustrated. A schematic framework for urban flood hazard prediction is proposed, within which multi-source observation retrieval, physics-based modelling, parameter optimisation, uncertainty estimation, model-observation fusion, evaluation of compound effects of multiple factors and digital twin techniques are included. The major challenges and uncertainties in flood process modelling originate from input data, model structures, validation processes and compounding effects. Multidisciplinary techniques for estimating the input data and enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of the flood evaluation should be developed. Great efforts are needed in understanding the process-dependent indicators, coupled modelling and data-model assimilation. Determining the probability of compound floods and understanding the driving factors are also essential for evaluating flood risks.
{"title":"Flood hazards in urban environment","authors":"L. Gao, Limin Zhang, Yang Hong, Hong-Xin Chen, Shijin Feng","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2201266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2201266","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Apart from the estimation of magnitudes of precipitation, floods and storm surges, modelling of storm water flows in a densely populated urban area is required for designing coping strategies and making decisions. Incorporating surface runoff and conduit flow modelling capabilities has enabled the prediction of urban flood hazards. This study synthesises methodologies for simulating flood processes and evaluating flood hazards in urban environment. Existing models and their associated uncertainties are summarised, and state-of-the-art techniques to build up a numerical model for simulating urban floods and the applications to specific cases are illustrated. A schematic framework for urban flood hazard prediction is proposed, within which multi-source observation retrieval, physics-based modelling, parameter optimisation, uncertainty estimation, model-observation fusion, evaluation of compound effects of multiple factors and digital twin techniques are included. The major challenges and uncertainties in flood process modelling originate from input data, model structures, validation processes and compounding effects. Multidisciplinary techniques for estimating the input data and enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of the flood evaluation should be developed. Great efforts are needed in understanding the process-dependent indicators, coupled modelling and data-model assimilation. Determining the probability of compound floods and understanding the driving factors are also essential for evaluating flood risks.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43599266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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