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An integrated G-MACONT approach for healthcare supplier selection 医疗保健供应商选择的 G-MACONT 综合方法
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1108/gs-07-2023-0068
Santonab Chakraborty, Rakesh D. Raut, T.M. Rofin, Shankar Chakraborty

Purpose

Supplier selection along with continuous evaluation of their performance is a crucial activity in healthcare supply chain management for effective utilization of scarce resources while providing quality service at an affordable price, and minimizing chances of stock-out, avoiding serious consequences on the illness or fatality of the patients. Presence of both qualitative and quantitative evaluation criteria, set of potential suppliers and participation of different stakeholders with varying interest make healthcare supplier selection a challenging task which can be effectively solved using any of the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods.

Design/methodology/approach

To deal with various qualitative criteria, like cost, quality, delivery performance, reliability, responsiveness and flexibility, this paper proposes integration of grey system theory with a newly developed MCDM tool, i.e. mixed aggregation by comprehensive normalization technique (MACONT) to identify the best performing supplier for pharmaceutical items in a healthcare unit from a pool of six competing alternatives based on the opinions of three healthcare professionals.

Findings

While assessing importance of the six evaluation criteria and performance of the alternative healthcare suppliers against those criteria using grey numbers, and exploring use of three normalization procedures and two aggregation operations of MACONT method, this integrated approach singles out S5 as the most compromised healthcare supplier for the considered problem. A sensitivity analysis of its ranking performance against varying values of both balance parameters and preference parameters also validates its solution accuracy and robustness.

Originality/value

This integrated approach can thus efficiently solve healthcare supplier selection problems based on qualitative evaluation criteria in uncertain group decision making environment. It can also be deployed to deal with other decision making problems in the healthcare sector, like supplier selection for healthcare devices, performance evaluation of healthcare units, ranking of physicians etc.

目的 选择供应商并对其绩效进行持续评估是医疗供应链管理中的一项重要活动,目的是有效利用稀缺资源,同时以可承受的价格提供优质服务,并最大限度地减少缺货机会,避免对患者的疾病或死亡造成严重后果。定性和定量评价标准的存在、潜在供应商的集合以及不同利益相关者的参与,使得医疗保健供应商的选择成为一项具有挑战性的任务,而使用任何一种多标准决策(MCDM)方法都可以有效地解决这一问题。研究结果在使用灰色数字评估六项评估标准的重要性和备选医疗供应商在这些标准下的表现,并探索使用 MACONT 方法的三种归一化程序和两种聚合操作的同时,这种综合方法选出了 S5 作为最适合所考虑问题的医疗供应商。针对平衡参数和偏好参数的不同值对其排序性能进行的敏感性分析也验证了其解决方案的准确性和稳健性。它还可用于处理医疗保健领域的其他决策问题,如医疗保健设备供应商选择、医疗保健单位绩效评估、医生排名等。
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引用次数: 0
Quality analysis of range hood impeller automated assembly based on generalized grey relational degree 基于广义灰色关联度的抽油烟机叶轮自动装配质量分析
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1108/gs-07-2023-0067
M.A. Xianglin, Haochen Cai, Qiming Yang, Gang Wang, Kun Mao

Purpose

This paper establishes a quality model for automation assembly of range hood impeller based on generalized grey relational degree, it improves the debugging efficiency of the newly developed assembly workstation.

Design/methodology/approach

First, spot check the trial production impellers and obtain three indexes that reflect the assembly quality of the impellers. Then, analyze the parameters that affect the assembly quality of the impeller using grey relational analysis (GRA), establish a model for the assembly quality of the range hood impeller based on the generalized grey relational degree and identify the main parameters. After that, analyze the transmission structure of automation assembly workstation, identify the reasons that affect parameters and propose improvement plans. Finally, a trial production is conducted on the automation assembly workstation after adopting the improved plan to verify the quality model of impeller automation assembly.

Findings

The research shows that compared to manual assembly, the automation assembly quality of the impeller using GRA model has been improved, shortening the debugging cycle of the newly developed assembly workstation.

Practical implications

The newly developed automation equipment will have some problems in the trial production stage, which often rely on the experience of engineers for debugging. In this paper, the automation assembly quality model of range hood impeller based on GRA is established, which can not only ensure the quality of finished impeller but also shorten the debugging cycle of the equipment. In addition, GRA can be widely used in the commissioning of other automation equipment.

Originality/value

This study has developed a set of impeller automation assembly workstation. The debugging method in the trial production stage is beneficial to shorten the trial production time and improve the economic benefits.

目的 本文建立了基于广义灰色关联度的抽油烟机叶轮自动化装配质量模型,提高了新开发的装配工作站的调试效率。然后,利用灰色关系分析法(GRA)分析影响叶轮装配质量的参数,建立基于广义灰色关系度的抽油烟机叶轮装配质量模型,并确定主要参数。然后,分析自动化装配工作站的传动结构,找出影响参数的原因并提出改进方案。最后,对采用改进方案后的自动化装配工作站进行试生产,验证叶轮自动化装配质量模型。研究结果研究表明,与人工装配相比,采用广义灰色关系度模型的叶轮自动化装配质量得到了提高,缩短了新开发的装配工作站的调试周期。本文建立了基于 GRA 的抽油烟机叶轮自动化装配质量模型,既能保证叶轮成品质量,又能缩短设备调试周期。此外,GRA 还可广泛应用于其他自动化设备的调试。试生产阶段的调试方法有利于缩短试生产时间,提高经济效益。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic multi-attribute grey target group decision model based on quantum-like Bayesian networks 基于类量子贝叶斯网络的动态多属性灰色目标群决策模型
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1108/gs-08-2023-0072
Na Zhang, Haiyan Wang, Zaiwu Gong

Purpose

Grey target decision-making serves as a pivotal analytical tool for addressing dynamic multi-attribute group decision-making amidst uncertain information. However, the setting of bull's eye is frequently subjective, and each stage is considered independent of the others. Interference effects between each stage can easily influence one another. To address these challenges effectively, this paper employs quantum probability theory to construct quantum-like Bayesian networks, addressing interference effects in dynamic multi-attribute group decision-making.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the bull's eye matrix of the scheme stage is derived based on the principle of group negotiation and maximum satisfaction deviation. Secondly, a nonlinear programming model for stage weight is constructed by using an improved Orness measure constraint to determine the stage weight. Finally, the quantum-like Bayesian network is constructed to explore the interference effect between stages. In this process, the decision of each stage is regarded as a wave function which occurs synchronously, with mutual interference impacting the aggregate result. Finally, the effectiveness and rationality of the model are verified through a public health emergency.

Findings

The research shows that there are interference effects between each stage. Both the dynamic grey target group decision model and the dynamic multi-attribute group decision model based on quantum-like Bayesian network proposed in this paper are scientific and effective. They enhance the flexibility and stability of actual decision-making and provide significant practical value.

Originality/value

To address issues like stage interference effects, subjective bull's eye settings and the absence of participative behavior in decision-making groups, this paper develops a grey target decision model grounded in group negotiation and maximum satisfaction deviation. Furthermore, by integrating the quantum-like Bayesian network model, this paper offers a novel perspective for addressing information fusion and subjective cognitive biases during decision-making.

目的灰色目标决策是解决信息不确定情况下动态多属性群体决策的关键分析工具。然而,靶心的设置通常是主观的,每个阶段都被认为是独立的。每个阶段之间的干扰效应很容易相互影响。为了有效解决这些问题,本文采用量子概率论构建类量子贝叶斯网络,解决动态多属性群体决策中的干扰效应。设计/方法/途径首先,基于群体协商原则和最大满意度偏差原则,导出方案阶段的靶心矩阵;其次,利用改进的Orness测度约束来确定舞台权重,建立了舞台权重的非线性规划模型;最后,构建了类量子贝叶斯网络,探讨了阶段间的干扰效应。在此过程中,将各阶段的决策视为一个同步发生的波函数,相互干扰影响总体结果。最后,通过一起突发公共卫生事件验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。研究表明,各阶段之间存在干扰效应。本文提出的动态灰色目标群决策模型和基于类量子贝叶斯网络的动态多属性群决策模型都是科学有效的。提高了实际决策的灵活性和稳定性,具有重要的实用价值。原创性/价值为解决决策群体中的阶段干扰效应、主观靶心设置和缺乏参与行为等问题,本文建立了基于群体协商和最大满意度偏差的灰色目标决策模型。此外,通过整合类量子贝叶斯网络模型,为解决决策过程中的信息融合和主观认知偏差提供了一个新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
A novel quality risk evaluation framework for complex equipment development integrating PHFS-QFD and grey clustering 结合PHFS-QFD和灰色聚类的复杂装备开发质量风险评价框架
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1108/gs-07-2023-0065
Huan Wang, Daao Wang, Peng Wang, Zhigeng Fang

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to provide a theoretical framework for complex equipment quality risk evaluation. The primary aim of the framework is to enhance the ability to identify risks and improve risk control efficiency during the development phase.

Design/methodology/approach

A novel framework for quality risk evaluation in complex equipment is proposed, which integrates probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set-quality function deployment (PHFS-QFD) and grey clustering. PHFS-QFD is applied to identify the quality risk factors, and grey clustering is used to evaluate quality risks in cases of poor quality information during the development stage. The unfolding function of QFD is applied to simplify complex evaluation problems.

Findings

The methodology presents an innovative approach to quality risk evaluation for complex equipment development. The case analysis demonstrates that this method can efficiently evaluate the quality risks for aircraft development and systematically trace back the risk factors through hierarchical relationships. In comparison to traditional failure mode and effects analysis methods for quality risk assessment, this approach exhibits superior effectiveness and reliability in managing quality risks for complex equipment development.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the field by introducing a novel theoretical framework that combines PHFS-QFD and grey clustering. The integration of these approaches significantly improves the quality risk evaluation process for complex equipment development, overcoming challenges related to data scarcity and simplifying the assessment of intricate systems.

目的为复杂装备质量风险评估提供理论框架。该框架的主要目的是增强在开发阶段识别风险和提高风险控制效率的能力。将概率犹豫模糊集-质量函数展开(PHFS-QFD)与灰色聚类相结合,提出了复杂设备质量风险评估的新框架。采用PHFS-QFD识别质量风险因素,采用灰色聚类方法对开发阶段质量信息差的情况下的质量风险进行评价。利用QFD的展开函数简化了复杂的评价问题。该方法为复杂设备开发提供了一种创新的质量风险评估方法。案例分析表明,该方法能够有效地对飞机研制质量风险进行评估,并通过层次关系对风险因素进行系统追溯。与传统的质量风险评估失效模式和影响分析方法相比,该方法在复杂设备开发质量风险管理中具有更高的有效性和可靠性。原创性/价值本研究通过引入PHFS-QFD和灰色聚类相结合的新颖理论框架,为该领域做出了贡献。这些方法的集成显著改善了复杂设备开发的质量风险评估过程,克服了与数据稀缺相关的挑战,简化了复杂系统的评估。
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引用次数: 0
An optimal wavelet transform grey multivariate convolution model to forecast electricity demand: a novel approach 一种最优小波变换灰色多元卷积模型预测电力需求的新方法
3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1108/gs-09-2023-0090
Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Mohammed Hamaidi, Mohammad M. Hamed, Abdelhamid Issa Hassane, Jean Gaston Tamba
Purpose For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic growth and the ambitious projects underway. Therefore, one of the state's priorities is the mastery of electricity demand. In order to get there, it would be helpful to have reliable forecasting tools. This study proposes a novel version of the discrete grey multivariate convolution model (ODGMC(1,N)). Design/methodology/approach Specifically, a linear corrective term is added to its structure, parameterisation is done in a way that is consistent to the modelling procedure and the cumulated forecasting function of ODGMC(1,N) is obtained through an iterative technique. Findings Results show that ODGMC(1,N) is more stable and can extract the relationships between the system's input variables. To demonstrate and validate the superiority of ODGMC(1,N), a practical example drawn from the projection of electricity demand in Cameroon till 2030 is used. The findings reveal that the proposed model has a higher prediction precision, with 1.74% mean absolute percentage error and 132.16 root mean square error. Originality/value These interesting results are due to (1) the stability of ODGMC(1,N) resulting from a good adequacy between parameters estimation and their implementation, (2) the addition of a term that takes into account the linear impact of time t on the model's performance and (3) the removal of irrelevant information from input data by wavelet transform filtration. Thus, the suggested ODGMC is a robust predictive and monitoring tool for tracking the evolution of electricity needs.
几年来,喀麦隆的电力需求显著增加,由于目前的经济增长和正在进行的雄心勃勃的项目,这种需求必然会在未来几年内增长。因此,国家的首要任务之一是掌握电力需求。为了实现这一目标,拥有可靠的预测工具将会有所帮助。本研究提出了一种新的离散灰色多元卷积模型(ODGMC(1,N))。具体而言,在其结构中加入线性校正项,以与建模程序一致的方式进行参数化,并通过迭代技术获得ODGMC(1,N)的累积预测函数。结果表明,ODGMC(1,N)更稳定,可以提取系统输入变量之间的关系。为了证明和验证ODGMC(1,N)的优越性,本文使用了喀麦隆到2030年电力需求预测的一个实际例子。结果表明,该模型具有较高的预测精度,平均绝对百分比误差为1.74%,均方根误差为132.16。这些有趣的结果是由于(1)ODGMC(1,N)的稳定性,这是由于参数估计及其实现之间的良好充分性,(2)增加了一个考虑时间t对模型性能的线性影响的项,以及(3)通过小波变换过滤从输入数据中去除无关信息。因此,建议的ODGMC是一个强大的预测和监测工具,用于跟踪电力需求的演变。
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引用次数: 0
Memory-dependent derivative grey Bernoulli model and its application in electricity generation forecast 记忆相关导数灰色伯努利模型及其在发电预测中的应用
3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1108/gs-06-2023-0048
Yonghong Zhang, Shouwei Li, Jingwei Li, Xiaoyu Tang
Purpose This paper aims to develop a novel grey Bernoulli model with memory characteristics, which is designed to dynamically choose the optimal memory kernel function and the length of memory dependence period, ultimately enhancing the model's predictive accuracy. Design/methodology/approach This paper enhances the traditional grey Bernoulli model by introducing memory-dependent derivatives, resulting in a novel memory-dependent derivative grey model. Additionally, fractional-order accumulation is employed for preprocessing the original data. The length of the memory dependence period for memory-dependent derivatives is determined through grey correlation analysis. Furthermore, the whale optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize the cumulative order, power index and memory kernel function index of the model, enabling adaptability to diverse scenarios. Findings The selection of appropriate memory kernel functions and memory dependency lengths will improve model prediction performance. The model can adaptively select the memory kernel function and memory dependence length, and the performance of the model is better than other comparison models. Research limitations/implications The model presented in this article has some limitations. The grey model is itself suitable for small sample data, and memory-dependent derivatives mainly consider the memory effect on a fixed length. Therefore, this model is mainly applicable to data prediction with short-term memory effect and has certain limitations on time series of long-term memory. Practical implications In practical systems, memory effects typically exhibit a decaying pattern, which is effectively characterized by the memory kernel function. The model in this study skillfully determines the appropriate kernel functions and memory dependency lengths to capture these memory effects, enhancing its alignment with real-world scenarios. Originality/value Based on the memory-dependent derivative method, a memory-dependent derivative grey Bernoulli model that more accurately reflects the actual memory effect is constructed and applied to power generation forecasting in China, South Korea and India.
目的建立一种具有记忆特征的灰色伯努利模型,动态选择最优的记忆核函数和记忆依赖期的长度,最终提高模型的预测精度。本文通过引入记忆相关导数对传统的灰色伯努利模型进行了改进,得到了一种新的记忆相关导数灰色模型。此外,还采用分数阶累积对原始数据进行预处理。通过灰色关联分析确定记忆依赖导数的记忆依赖周期长度。利用鲸鱼优化算法对模型的累积阶数、功率指数和内存核函数指数进行优化,使模型能够适应多种场景。发现选择合适的内存核函数和内存依赖长度可以提高模型的预测性能。该模型能够自适应选择记忆核函数和记忆依赖长度,性能优于其他比较模型。本文提出的模型有一定的局限性。灰色模型本身适用于小样本数据,记忆相关导数主要考虑固定长度上的记忆效应。因此,该模型主要适用于具有短期记忆效应的数据预测,对长期记忆的时间序列有一定的局限性。在实际系统中,记忆效应通常表现为一种衰减模式,这种衰减模式可以有效地用记忆核函数来表征。本研究中的模型巧妙地确定了适当的内核函数和内存依赖长度,以捕获这些内存效应,增强了其与现实世界场景的一致性。基于记忆依赖导数法,构建了一个更准确反映实际记忆效应的记忆依赖导数灰色伯努利模型,并将其应用于中国、韩国和印度的发电量预测中。
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引用次数: 0
An intuitionistic fuzzy grey-Markov method with application to demand forecasting for emergency supplies during major epidemics 一种直觉模糊灰色马尔可夫方法在重大流行病应急物资需求预测中的应用
3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1108/gs-07-2023-0062
Zhiying Wang, Hongmei Jia
Purpose Forecasting demand of emergency supplies under major epidemics plays a vital role in improving rescue efficiency. Few studies have combined intuitionistic fuzzy set with grey-Markov method and applied it to the prediction of emergency supplies demand. Therefore, this article aims to establish a novel method for emergency supplies demand forecasting under major epidemics. Design/methodology/approach Emergency supplies demand is correlated with the number of infected cases in need of relief services. First, a novel method called the Intuitionistic Fuzzy TPGM(1,1)-Markov Method (IFTPGMM) is proposed, and it is utilized for the purpose of forecasting the number of people. Then, the prediction of demand for emergency supplies is calculated using a method based on the safety inventory theory, according to numbers predicted by IFTPGMM. Finally, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted between IFTPGMM and four other methods. Findings The results show that IFTPGMM demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to four other methods. The integration of the grey method and intuitionistic fuzzy set has been shown to effectively handle uncertain information and enhance the accuracy of predictions. Originality/value The main contribution of this article is to propose a novel method for emergency supplies demand forecasting under major epidemics. The benefits of utilizing the grey method for handling small sample sizes and intuitionistic fuzzy set for handling uncertain information are considered in this proposed method. This method not only enhances existing grey method but also expands the methodologies used for forecasting demand for emergency supplies. Highlights (for review) An intuitionistic fuzzy TPGM(1,1)-Markov method (IFTPGMM) is proposed. The safety inventory theory is combined with IFTPGMM to construct a prediction method. Asymptomatic infected cases are taken to forecast the demand for emergency supplies.
目的预测重大疫情下应急物资需求对提高救援效率具有重要意义。将直觉模糊集与灰色马尔可夫方法相结合,应用于应急物资需求预测的研究较少。因此,本文旨在建立一种新的重大疫情下应急物资需求预测方法。设计/方法/办法紧急用品需求与需要救济服务的感染病例数量相关。首先,提出了一种直觉模糊TPGM(1,1)-马尔可夫方法(IFTPGMM),并将其用于预测人数。然后,根据IFTPGMM预测的数量,采用基于安全库存理论的方法对应急物资需求进行预测。最后,为了证明该方法的有效性,将IFTPGMM与其他四种方法进行了比较分析。结果表明,IFTPGMM的预测性能优于其他四种方法。将灰色方法与直觉模糊集相结合,可以有效地处理不确定信息,提高预测的准确性。本文的主要贡献在于提出了一种重大疫情下应急物资需求预测的新方法。该方法考虑了利用灰色方法处理小样本和利用直觉模糊集处理不确定信息的优点。该方法不仅对现有的灰色预测方法进行了改进,而且拓展了应急物资需求预测的方法。提出了一种直觉模糊TPGM(1,1)-Markov方法(IFTPGMM)。将安全库存理论与IFTPGMM相结合,构建了一种安全库存预测方法。以无症状感染者为例,预测应急物资需求。
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引用次数: 0
Enterprise blockchain solutions for vibrant construction ecosystem: Grey Ordinal Priority Approach 充满活力的建筑生态系统的企业区块链解决方案:灰色顺序优先方法
3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1108/gs-07-2023-0060
Mahsa Sadeghi, Amin Mahmoudi, Xiaopeng Deng, Leila Moslemi Naeni
Purpose The aim of this article states that in each stage of the industrial revolution, only a few initiatives have been real game changers. In Industry 3.0, “ Internet of Information ” has transformed the business landscape via connectivity and communications. Enterprises could come together to spur innovation in a cooperative or competitive manner. In Industry 4.0, the “ Internet of Value ” has shown considerable benefits; and, blockchain technology is expected to touch all layers of a business ecosystem, and the construction industry is not an exception. Design/methodology/approach This study aims to answer the “ How do enterprise blockchain solutions contribute to the vibrancy of the construction ecosystem from social, economic, and environmental aspects? ” Following a comprehensive literature review, the Grey Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA-G) is employed in multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA). OPA-G can select functionally rich enterprise blockchain solutions that meet the needs of the future construction industry, while there is uncertainty in the input data. Findings The results from the case study show that organization under observation welcomes an enterprise blockchain solution that delivers services related to “renewable energy certificates” in the context of “smart cities and built environment”. Employing high-ranked blockchain solutions brings vibracy and sustainability to construction ecosystem in terms of “C 6 . decentralized finance and investment,” “C 3 . multi-party and cross-industry collaboration,” and “C 8 . data-driven value creation”. Originality/value At the micro level, blockchain solutions automate processes, streamline operations, and build new capacities on a new business model. At the macro level, blockchain creates a vibrant ecosystem based on transparency, decentralization, consensus-based democracy, interoperability, etc. Indeed, the capability of blockchain solutions at an enterprise scale (enterprise blockchain solutions) can shape a new construction ecosystem. The practical implications of current research are preparing executives for a fundamentally different next normal in construction.
本文的目的是指出,在工业革命的每个阶段,只有少数举措是真正的游戏规则改变者。在工业3.0时代,“信息互联网”通过连接和通信改变了商业格局。企业可以联合起来,以合作或竞争的方式刺激创新。在工业4.0中,“价值互联网”已经显示出相当大的效益;而且,区块链技术有望触及商业生态系统的各个层面,建筑行业也不例外。本研究旨在回答“企业区块链解决方案如何从社会、经济和环境方面为建筑生态系统的活力做出贡献?”在全面的文献综述之后,灰色顺序优先法(OPA-G)被用于多准则决策分析(MCDA)。OPA-G可以选择功能丰富的企业区块链解决方案,满足未来建筑行业的需求,而输入数据存在不确定性。案例研究的结果表明,所观察的组织欢迎在“智慧城市和建筑环境”背景下提供与“可再生能源证书”相关服务的企业区块链解决方案。采用高排名的区块链解决方案为建筑生态系统带来了“c6”的活力和可持续性。分散的金融和投资”,“C”。多方、跨行业协作”和“c8”。数据驱动的价值创造”。在微观层面,区块链解决方案使流程自动化,简化操作,并在新的商业模式上建立新的能力。在宏观层面上,区块链创造了一个充满活力的生态系统,基于透明度、去中心化、基于共识的民主、互操作性等。事实上,区块链解决方案在企业规模上的能力(企业区块链解决方案)可以塑造一个新的建筑生态系统。当前研究的实际意义,正让高管们为建筑业一个完全不同的下一个常态做好准备。
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引用次数: 0
A matrixed nonlinear exponential grey Bernoulli model for interval number prediction of crude oil futures prices 原油期货价格区间数预测的矩阵非线性指数灰色伯努利模型
3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1108/gs-08-2023-0073
Haoze Cang, Xiangyan Zeng, Shuli Yan
Purpose The effective prediction of crude oil futures prices can provide a reference for relevant enterprises to make production plans and investment decisions. To the nonlinearity, high volatility and uncertainty of the crude oil futures price, a matrixed nonlinear exponential grey Bernoulli model combined with an exponential accumulation generating operator (MNEGBM(1,1)) is proposed in this paper. Design/methodology/approach First, the original sequence is processed by the exponential accumulation generating operator to weaken its volatility. The nonlinear grey Bernoulli and exponential function models are combined to fit the preprocessed sequence. Then, the parameters in MNEGBM(1,1) are matrixed, so the ternary interval number sequence can be modeled directly. Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) is chosen to optimize the nonlinear parameters. Finally, the Cramer rule is used to derive the time recursive formula. Findings The predictive effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing it with five comparison models. Crude oil futures prices in Cushing, OK are predicted and analyzed from 2023/07 to 2023/12. The prediction results show it will gradually decrease over the next six months. Originality/value Crude oil futures prices are highly volatile in the short term. The use of grey model for short-term prediction is valuable for research. For the data characteristics of crude oil futures price, this study first proposes an improved model for interval number prediction of crude oil futures prices.
目的对原油期货价格进行有效预测,为相关企业制定生产计划和投资决策提供参考。针对原油期货价格的非线性、高波动性和不确定性,提出了一种结合指数积累生成算子(MNEGBM(1,1))的矩阵非线性指数灰色伯努利模型。设计/方法/方法首先,对原始序列进行指数累积生成算子处理,以减弱其波动性。将非线性灰色伯努利模型与指数函数模型相结合,拟合预处理序列。然后,对MNEGBM(1,1)中的参数进行矩阵化处理,可以直接对三进制区间数列进行建模。采用海洋掠食者算法(MPA)对非线性参数进行优化。最后,利用Cramer规则推导出时间递归公式。结果通过与5个比较模型的比较,验证了该模型的预测有效性。对2023/07 - 2023/12年库欣原油期货价格进行了预测和分析。预测结果显示,在未来6个月内,这一数字将逐渐下降。原油期货价格在短期内波动很大。利用灰色模型进行短期预测具有一定的研究价值。针对原油期货价格的数据特点,本文首先提出了一种改进的原油期货价格区间数预测模型。
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引用次数: 0
Use of AHP and grey fixed weight clustering to assess the maturity level of strategic communication management in Brazilian startups 运用层次分析法和灰色定权聚类法评价巴西初创企业战略沟通管理成熟度
3区 工程技术 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1108/gs-06-2023-0052
Thiago Rodrigues Timóteo, Gustavo Tietz Cazeri, Gustavo Hermínio Salati Marcondes de Moraes, Tiago F.A.C. Sigahi, Lucas Gabriel Zanon, Izabela Simon Rampasso, Rosley Anholon
Purpose The aim of this research was to evaluate the maturity level of strategic communication management implemented by Brazilian startups. Design/methodology/approach This study employed the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), survey and Grey Fixed Weight Clustering modeling techniques. Three experts with extensive academic and practical experience in the subject participated in the AHP process, providing their opinions on the relative importance of eight variables associated with the topic under investigation, thus enabling their prioritization. Concurrently, data were collected through a survey from 23 respondents who have extensive knowledge about the realities of Brazilian startups. The weights derived from the AHP and the survey data were utilized in the Grey Fixed Weight Clustering modeling. Findings Based on the opinions of the 23 respondents, the level of implementation of practices related to strategic management, brand management, external image management and internal communication management is superficial. In addition, according to the majority of experts, Brazilian startups exhibited a medium level of maturity to address the key challenges related to communication management. Furthermore, this study reveals that the variables “financial resources allocation,” “stakeholder relationship” and “brand management” were deemed the most significant for the model. Originality/value The contributions presented herein can be beneficial for both researchers and startup managers seeking to enhance communication strategies in their organizations. This research also contributes by highlighting how grey systems theory can be extremely useful for conducting decision-making analyses in the context of startups, which is characterized by uncertainty and imprecise information.
本研究的目的是评估巴西创业公司实施战略沟通管理的成熟度。设计/方法/方法本研究采用层次分析法(AHP)、调查法和灰色定权聚类建模技术。在该主题方面具有丰富学术和实践经验的三位专家参与了AHP过程,就与调查主题相关的八个变量的相对重要性提供了意见,从而能够确定其优先次序。同时,通过对23名受访者的调查收集数据,这些受访者对巴西初创企业的现实情况有广泛的了解。利用层次分析法和调查数据得到的权重进行灰色定权聚类建模。根据23位受访者的意见,与战略管理、品牌管理、外部形象管理和内部沟通管理相关的实践实施水平是肤浅的。此外,根据大多数专家的说法,巴西初创公司在解决与沟通管理相关的关键挑战方面表现出中等水平的成熟度。此外,本研究还发现,“财务资源配置”、“利益相关者关系”和“品牌管理”变量被认为对模型最重要。原创性/价值本文提出的贡献对研究人员和初创公司的管理者都是有益的,他们正在寻求加强组织中的沟通策略。这项研究还强调了灰色系统理论在创业公司的背景下进行决策分析时是多么有用,因为创业公司的特点是不确定性和不精确的信息。
{"title":"Use of AHP and grey fixed weight clustering to assess the maturity level of strategic communication management in Brazilian startups","authors":"Thiago Rodrigues Timóteo, Gustavo Tietz Cazeri, Gustavo Hermínio Salati Marcondes de Moraes, Tiago F.A.C. Sigahi, Lucas Gabriel Zanon, Izabela Simon Rampasso, Rosley Anholon","doi":"10.1108/gs-06-2023-0052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/gs-06-2023-0052","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose The aim of this research was to evaluate the maturity level of strategic communication management implemented by Brazilian startups. Design/methodology/approach This study employed the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), survey and Grey Fixed Weight Clustering modeling techniques. Three experts with extensive academic and practical experience in the subject participated in the AHP process, providing their opinions on the relative importance of eight variables associated with the topic under investigation, thus enabling their prioritization. Concurrently, data were collected through a survey from 23 respondents who have extensive knowledge about the realities of Brazilian startups. The weights derived from the AHP and the survey data were utilized in the Grey Fixed Weight Clustering modeling. Findings Based on the opinions of the 23 respondents, the level of implementation of practices related to strategic management, brand management, external image management and internal communication management is superficial. In addition, according to the majority of experts, Brazilian startups exhibited a medium level of maturity to address the key challenges related to communication management. Furthermore, this study reveals that the variables “financial resources allocation,” “stakeholder relationship” and “brand management” were deemed the most significant for the model. Originality/value The contributions presented herein can be beneficial for both researchers and startup managers seeking to enhance communication strategies in their organizations. This research also contributes by highlighting how grey systems theory can be extremely useful for conducting decision-making analyses in the context of startups, which is characterized by uncertainty and imprecise information.","PeriodicalId":48597,"journal":{"name":"Grey Systems-Theory and Application","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136059079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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Grey Systems-Theory and Application
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