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Synergy of Urban Heat, Pollution, and Social Vulnerability in One of America's Most Rapidly Growing Cities: Houston, We Have a Problem 美国发展最迅速的城市之一的城市热量、污染和社会脆弱性的协同作用:休斯顿,我们有麻烦了
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001079
Andrew Blackford, Trent Cowan, Udaysankar Nair, Christopher Phillips, Aaron Kaulfus, Brian Freitag

During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, we analyze the expansion of urban land cover, urban heat island (UHI), and urban pollution island (UPI) in the Houston Metropolitan Area (HMA) using land cover classifications derived from Landsat and land/aerosol products from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Our approach involves both direct utilization and fusion with in situ observations for a comprehensive characterization. We also examined how social vulnerability within the HMA changed during the study period and whether the synergy of UHI, UPI, and social vulnerability enhances environmental inequalities. We found that urban land cover within the HMA increased by 1,345.09 km2 and is accompanied by a 171.92 (73.93) % expansion of the daytime (nighttime) UHI. While the UPI experienced an overall reduction in particulate pollution, the magnitude of change is smaller compared to the surroundings. Further, the UPI showed localized enhancement in particulate pollution caused by increases in vehicular traffic. Our analysis found that the social vulnerability of the HMA urban regions increased during the study period. Overall, we found that the urban growth during the first two decades of the twenty-first century resulted in a synergy of UHI, UPI, and social vulnerability, causing an increase in environmental inequalities within the HMA.

在二十一世纪的头二十年里,我们利用从陆地卫星和美国国家航空航天局中分辨率成像分光仪的土地/气溶胶产品中获得的土地覆盖分类,分析了休斯顿大都市区(HMA)的城市土地覆盖、城市热岛(UHI)和城市污染岛(UPI)的扩展情况。我们的方法既包括直接利用,也包括与现场观测相结合,以获得全面的特征描述。在研究期间,我们还考察了高海拔地区的社会脆弱性是如何变化的,以及超高温影响、UPI 和社会脆弱性的协同作用是否会加剧环境不平等。我们发现,高海拔地区的城市土地覆盖面积增加了 1,345.09 平方公里,同时日间(夜间)UHI 扩大了 171.92 (73.93) %。虽然 UPI 的颗粒物污染总体上有所减少,但与周边地区相比,变化幅度较小。此外,由于车辆交通量的增加,万国邮联局部地区的颗粒物污染有所增加。我们的分析发现,在研究期间,HMA 城市地区的社会脆弱性有所增加。总体而言,我们发现二十一世纪头二十年的城市发展导致了超高温影响、超高压影响指数和社会脆弱性的协同作用,造成了高纬度地区内环境不平等的加剧。
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引用次数: 0
Geographic Variations in Urban-Rural Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations in the United States, 2010–2019 2010-2019 年美国城乡颗粒物 (PM2.5) 浓度的地域变化
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000920
Daniel J. Kilpatrick, Peiyin Hung, Elizabeth Crouch, Stella Self, Jeremy Cothran, Dwayne E. Porter, Jan M. Eberth

Fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) is a widely studied pollutant with substantial health impacts, yet little is known about the urban-rural differences across the United States. Trends of PM2.5 in urban and rural census tracts between 2010 and 2019 were assessed alongside sociodemographic characteristics including race/ethnicity, poverty, and age. For 2010, we identified 13,474 rural tracts and 59,065 urban tracts. In 2019, 13,462 were rural and 59,055 urban. Urban tracts had significantly higher PM2.5 concentrations than rural tracts during this period. Levels of PM2.5 were lower in rural tracts compared to urban and fell more rapidly in rural than urban. Rural tract annual means for 2010 and 2019 were 8.51 [2.24] μg/m3 and 6.41 [1.29] μg/m3, respectively. Urban tract annual means for 2010 and 2019 were 9.56 [2.04] μg/m3 and 7.51 [1.40] μg/m3, respectively. Rural and urban majority Black communities had significantly higher PM2.5 pollution levels (10.19 [1.64] μg/m3 and 9.79 [1.10] μg/m3 respectively), in 2010. In 2019, they were: 7.75 [1.1] μg/m3 and 7.09 [0.78] μg/m3, respectively. Majority Hispanic communities had higher PM2.5 levels and were the highest urban concentration among all races/ethnicities (8.01 [1.73] μg/m3), however they were not the highest rural concentration among all races/ethnicities (6.22 [1.60] μg/m3) in 2019. Associations with higher levels of PM2.5 were found with communities in the poorest quartile and with higher proportions of residents age<15 years old. These findings suggest greater protections for those disproportionately exposed to PM2.5 are needed, such as, increasing the availability of low-cost air quality monitors.

细颗粒物 2.5(PM2.5)是一种被广泛研究的对健康有重大影响的污染物,但人们对美国的城乡差异知之甚少。我们评估了 2010 年至 2019 年期间城市和农村人口普查区 PM2.5 的变化趋势以及社会人口特征,包括种族/民族、贫困和年龄。2010 年,我们确定了 13,474 个农村普查区和 59,065 个城市普查区。2019 年,农村地区为 13,462 个,城市地区为 59,055 个。在此期间,城市地区的 PM2.5 浓度明显高于农村地区。与城市相比,农村地区的 PM2.5 浓度较低,而且农村地区的 PM2.5 浓度下降速度快于城市地区。2010 年和 2019 年农村地区的年均值分别为 8.51 [2.24] μg/m3 和 6.41 [1.29] μg/m3。城市地区 2010 年和 2019 年的年均值分别为 9.56 [2.04] μg/m3 和 7.51 [1.40] μg/m3。2010 年,农村和城市黑人占多数的社区的 PM2.5 污染水平明显更高(分别为 10.19 [1.64] μg/m3 和 9.79 [1.10] μg/m3)。2019 年则为分别为 7.75 [1.1] μg/m3 和 7.09 [0.78] μg/m3。西班牙裔多数人社区的PM2.5水平较高,是所有种族/族裔中城市浓度最高的社区(8.01 [1.73] μg/m3),但在2019年,他们并不是所有种族/族裔中农村浓度最高的社区(6.22 [1.60] μg/m3)。PM2.5水平较高与最贫穷的四分位数社区和年龄在15岁以下的居民比例较高有关。这些研究结果表明,需要为那些过多暴露于 PM2.5 的人群提供更多保护,例如增加低成本空气质量监测器的供应。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Immediate and Lasting Impacts of COVID-19-Induced Isolation on Green Space Usage Patterns 评估 COVID-19 引起的隔离对绿地使用模式的直接和持久影响。
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001062
Fengdi Ma

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly influenced urban lifestyles, particularly the utilization of green spaces. While existing studies have primarily focused on the immediate effects of COVID-19-induced isolation, less attention has been given to the enduring impacts on green space usage patterns. This study addresses this gap by conducting three comprehensive surveys in Dezhou, China—before, during, and after the first wave of social isolation (December 2019, March 2020, December 2020). These surveys assessed socioeconomic conditions, commuting habits, green space usage habits, and landscape preferences, specifically focusing on usage frequency, duration of stays, and activities undertaken. Using Mann-Whitney U tests and Spearman's rho correlations, we identified significant long-term changes, including an increase in the frequency of visits by previously infrequent users, a reduction in visit durations, and a rise in high-intensity activities. These trends persisted 9 months post-isolation, highlighting the pandemic's lasting impact on green space usage and its critical role in enhancing public health and pandemic preparedness through thoughtful urban environmental design. This study not only sheds light on behavioral adaptations during a public health crisis but also offers evidence-based strategies for urban planning to bolster societal resilience in the face of future pandemics.

COVID-19 大流行深刻影响了城市生活方式,尤其是对绿地的利用。现有研究主要关注 COVID-19 引起的隔离所产生的直接影响,而较少关注对绿地使用模式的持久影响。为了弥补这一不足,本研究在中国德州进行了三次全面调查--在第一波社会隔离之前、期间和之后(2019 年 12 月、2020 年 3 月和 2020 年 12 月)。这些调查评估了社会经济状况、通勤习惯、绿地使用习惯和景观偏好,特别关注使用频率、停留时间和开展的活动。通过 Mann-Whitney U 检验和 Spearman's rho 相关性检验,我们发现了显著的长期变化,包括以前不经常使用绿地的人访问频率增加、访问时间缩短以及高强度活动增加。这些趋势在隔离后 9 个月仍持续存在,突显了大流行病对绿地使用的持久影响,以及绿地在通过周到的城市环境设计提高公共卫生和大流行病防备能力方面的关键作用。这项研究不仅揭示了公共卫生危机期间的行为适应性,还为城市规划提供了基于证据的策略,以增强社会在未来大流行病面前的复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Association Between Prenatal Exposure to Per- and Poly-Fluoroalkyl Substances From Electronic Waste Disassembly Areas and Steroid Hormones in Human Milk Samples 产前暴露于电子废物拆解区的全氟和多氟烷基物质与母乳样本中类固醇激素之间的关系。
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001142
Qiyao Li, Yan Zhang, Chen Chen, Jianlin Lou, Shenghang Wang, Jin Guo Hang, Shoji F. Nakayama, Teruhiko Kido, Hao Feng, Xian Liang Sun, Jiancong Shan

Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), which are long-lasting environmental contaminants that are released into the environment during the e-waste disassembly process, pose a threat to human health. Human milk is a complex and dynamic mixture of endogenous and exogenous substances, including steroid hormones and PFAS. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate the association between PFAS and steroid hormones in human milk from women living close to an e-waste disassembly area. In 2021, we collected milk samples from 150 mothers within 4 weeks of delivery and analyzed them via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to determine the levels of 21 perfluorinated compounds and five steroid hormones (estrone, estriol, testosterone, progesterone, and androstenedione [A-dione]). We also performed multiple linear regression analysis to clarify the association between maternal PFAS exposure and steroid hormone concentrations. Our results indicated that PFOA and PFOS were positively associated with estrone (β, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.08–0.39) and A-dione (β, 0.186; 95% CI, 0.016–0.357) concentrations in human milk, respectively. Further, the average estimated daily intake of PFOA and PFOS were 36.5 ng/kg bw/day (range, 0.52–291.7 ng/kg bw/day) and 5.21 ng/kg bw/day (range, 0.26–32.3 ng/kg bw/day), respectively. Of concern, the PFAS intake of breastfeeding infants in the study area was higher than the recommended threshold. These findings suggested that prenatal exposure to PFAS from the e-waste disassembly process can influence steroid hormones levels in human milk. Increased efforts to mitigate mother and infant exposure to environmental pollutants are also required.

全氟烷基和多氟烷基物质(PFAS)是电子垃圾拆解过程中释放到环境中的长效环境污染物,对人类健康构成威胁。母乳是内源性和外源性物质的复杂动态混合物,其中包括类固醇激素和 PFAS。因此,在本研究中,我们旨在调查生活在电子废物拆解区附近的妇女的母乳中 PFAS 与类固醇激素之间的关联。2021 年,我们收集了 150 名产妇在产后 4 周内的乳汁样本,并通过液相色谱-串联质谱法对样本进行了分析,以确定 21 种全氟化合物和五种类固醇激素(雌酮、雌三醇、睾酮、孕酮和雄烯二酮 [A-dione])的含量。我们还进行了多元线性回归分析,以明确母体接触全氟辛烷磺酸与类固醇激素浓度之间的关系。结果表明,PFOA 和 PFOS 分别与母乳中的雌酮(β,0.23;95% CI,0.08-0.39)和 A-二酮(β,0.186;95% CI,0.016-0.357)浓度呈正相关。此外,估计全氟辛烷磺酸和全氟辛烷磺酸的平均日摄入量分别为 36.5 纳克/千克体重/天(范围为 0.52-291.7 纳克/千克体重/天)和 5.21 纳克/千克体重/天(范围为 0.26-32.3 纳克/千克体重/天)。值得关注的是,研究地区母乳喂养婴儿的 PFAS 摄入量高于建议阈值。这些发现表明,产前接触电子废物拆解过程中产生的全氟辛烷磺酸会影响母乳中的类固醇激素水平。还需要加强努力,减少母婴接触环境污染物的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Quantification of Climate Footprints of Vibrio vulnificus in Coastal Human Communities of the United States Gulf Coast 美国墨西哥湾沿岸人类群落中弧菌气候足迹的量化。
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH001005
Yusuf Jamal, Moiz Usmani, Kyle D. Brumfield, Komalpreet Singh, Anwar Huq, Thanh Huong Nguyen, Rita Colwell, Antarpreet Jutla

The incidence of vibriosis is rising globally with evidence of climate variability influencing environmental processes that support growth of pathogenic Vibrio spp. The waterborne pathogen, Vibrio vulnificus can invade wounds and has one of the highest case fatality rates in humans. The bacterium cannot be eradicated from the aquatic environment, hence climate driven environmental conditions enhancing growth and dissemination of V. vulnificus need to be understood to provide preemptive assessment of its presence and distribution in aquatic systems. To achieve this objective, satellite remote sensing was employed to quantify the association of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in locations with reported V. vulnificus infections. Monthly analysis was done in two populated regions of the Gulf of Mexico—Tampa Bay, Florida, and Galveston Bay, Texas. Results indicate warm water, characterized by a 2-month lag in SST, high concentration of phytoplankton, proxied for zooplankton using 1 month lagged chl-a values, was statistically linked to higher odds of V. vulnificus infection in the human population. Identification of climate and ecological processes thresholds is concluded to be useful for development of an heuristic prediction system designed to determine risk of infection for coastal populations.

弧菌病的发病率在全球范围内呈上升趋势,有证据表明气候多变性影响了支持致病性弧菌生长的环境过程。这种细菌无法从水生环境中根除,因此需要了解气候对促进弧菌生长和传播的环境条件,以便对其在水生系统中的存在和分布情况进行先期评估。为实现这一目标,研究人员利用卫星遥感技术对报告有弧菌感染的地点的海面温度(SST)和叶绿素-a(chl-a)的关联进行了量化。每月对墨西哥湾的两个人口稠密地区--佛罗里达州坦帕湾和得克萨斯州加尔维斯顿湾--进行分析。结果表明,以海温滞后 2 个月、浮游植物浓度高(用滞后 1 个月的 chl-a 值来表示浮游动物)为特征的暖水与人类感染弧菌的几率较高有统计学联系。因此,确定气候和生态过程阈值有助于开发启发式预测系统,以确定沿海人口的感染风险。
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引用次数: 0
Air Pollution and Mortality in India: Investigating the Nexus of Ambient and Household Pollution Across Life Stages 印度的空气污染与死亡率:印度的空气污染与死亡率:调查生命各阶段环境污染与家庭污染的联系》,《印度科学院学报》,2011 年第 3 期。
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000968
Mihir Adhikary, Nandita Saikia, Pallav Purohit, Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Wolfgang Schöpp

Air pollution in India is a foremost environmental risk factor that affects human health. This study first investigates the geographical distribution of ambient and household air pollution (HAP) and then examines the associated mortality risk. Data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration has been extracted from the Greenhouse Gas Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. HAP, mortality and socio-demographic data were extracted from the National Family and Health Survey-5, India, 2019–2021. Regression models were applied to see the difference in age-group mortality by different pollution parameters. The districts with PM2.5 concentration above the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) level of 40 μg/m3 show a higher risk of neonatal (OR-1.86, CI 1.418–2.433), postneonatal (OR-2.04, CI 1.399–2.971), child (OR-2.19, CI 0.999–4.803) and adult death (OR-1.13, CI 1.060–1.208). The absence of a separate kitchen shows a higher probability of neonatal (OR: 1.18, CI 1.074–1.306) and adult death (OR-1.06, CI 1.027–1.088). The interaction between PM2.5 levels above NAAQS and HAP leads to a substantial rise in mortality observed for neonatal (OR 1.19 CI 1.051–1.337), child (OR 1.17 CI 1.054–1.289), and adult (OR 1.13 CI 1.096–1.168) age groups. This study advocates that there is a strong positive association between ambient and HAP and mortality risk. PM2.5 pollution significantly contributes to the mortality risk in all age groups. Children are more vulnerable to HAP than adults. In India, policymakers should focus on reducing the anthropogenic PM2.5 emission at least to reach the NAAQS, which can substantially reduce disease burden and, more precisely, mortality.

印度的空气污染是影响人类健康的首要环境风险因素。本研究首先调查了环境和家庭空气污染(HAP)的地理分布,然后研究了相关的死亡风险。细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度数据来自温室气体空气污染相互作用与协同作用(GAINS)模型。HAP、死亡率和社会人口数据提取自 2019-2021 年印度第五次全国家庭与健康调查。应用回归模型来观察不同污染参数对不同年龄组死亡率的影响。PM2.5 浓度高于国家环境空气质量标准(NAAQS)40 μg/m3 水平的地区,新生儿(OR-1.86,CI 1.418-2.433)、新生儿后期(OR-2.04,CI 1.399-2.971)、儿童(OR-2.19,CI 0.999-4.803)和成人死亡(OR-1.13,CI 1.060-1.208)的风险较高。没有独立厨房的情况下,新生儿(OR:1.18,CI 1.074-1.306)和成人(OR-1.06,CI 1.027-1.088)死亡的概率较高。高于 NAAQS 的 PM2.5 水平与 HAP 之间的相互作用导致新生儿(OR 1.19 CI 1.051-1.337)、儿童(OR 1.17 CI 1.054-1.289)和成人(OR 1.13 CI 1.096-1.168)年龄组的死亡率大幅上升。这项研究表明,环境空气和 HAP 与死亡风险之间存在密切的正相关关系。PM2.5 污染大大增加了所有年龄组的死亡风险。与成人相比,儿童更容易受到 HAP 的影响。在印度,政策制定者应将重点放在减少人为 PM2.5 排放量上,至少要达到 NAAQS 标准,这样才能大大减轻疾病负担,更确切地说,降低死亡率。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Change and Health: Perspectives From Ghana 气候变化与健康:加纳的观点
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001030
Martin Gameli Akakpo, Sylvia Hagan, Hayford Alufar Bokpin

Climate change is impacting many aspects of human life in many ways. In Ghana, climate change knowledge remains low and discussions linking climate change and health are scarce. In this paper, authors contribute to the shaping of discussions about climate and health with a focus on how climate change increases certain ailments. First, the paper addresses the need for research in Ghanaian communities to link climate change and health. Second, the paper suggests the development of policies to address the link. Third, public health educators are advised in this paper to educate the public.

气候变化正在以多种方式对人类生活的许多方面产生影响。在加纳,人们对气候变化的了解仍然很少,将气候变化与健康联系起来的讨论也很少。在本文中,作者以气候变化如何增加某些疾病为重点,为形成有关气候与健康的讨论做出了贡献。首先,本文论述了在加纳社区开展研究,将气候变化与健康联系起来的必要性。其次,本文建议制定政策来解决这种联系。第三,本文建议公共卫生教育工作者对公众进行教育。
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引用次数: 0
Geographical Patterns in Mortality Impacts Due To Heatwaves of Different Characteristics in Spanish Cities 西班牙城市不同特征的热浪对死亡率影响的地理模式。
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001092
Laura Paredes-Fortuny, Coral Salvador, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Samira Khodayar

The impact of heatwaves (HWs) on human health is a topic of growing interest due to the global magnification of these phenomena and their substantial socio-economic impacts. As for other countries of Southern Europe, Spain is a region highly affected by heat and its increase under climate change. This is observed in the mean values and the increasing incidence of extreme weather events and associated mortality. Despite the vast knowledge on this topic, it remains unclear whether specific types and characteristics of HW are particularly harmful to the population and whether this shows a regional interdependency. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between HW characteristics and mortality in 12 Spanish cities. We used separated time series analysis in each city applying a quasi-Poisson regression model and distributed lag linear and non-linear models. Results show an increase in the mortality risk under HW conditions in the cities with a lower HW frequency. However, this increase exhibits remarkable differences across the cities under study not showing any general pattern in the HW characteristics-mortality association. This relationship is shown to be complex and strongly dependent on the local properties of each city pointing out the crucial need to examine and understand on a local scale the HW characteristics and the HW-mortality relationship for an efficient design and implementation of prevention measures.

热浪(HWs)对人类健康的影响是一个日益受到关注的话题,因为这些现象在全球范围内不断扩大,并对社会经济产生了重大影响。与南欧其他国家一样,西班牙也是一个深受热浪影响的地区,而且在气候变化的影响下,热浪也在不断增加。这可以从极端天气事件的平均值和增加的发生率以及相关死亡率中观察到。尽管对这一主题有大量了解,但仍不清楚特定类型和特征的高温是否对人口特别有害,以及这是否显示出地区间的相互依存关系。本研究全面分析了西班牙 12 个城市的 HW 特征与死亡率之间的关系。我们采用准泊松回归模型和分布式滞后线性和非线性模型,对每个城市进行了分离式时间序列分析。结果表明,在高湿频率较低的城市,高湿条件下的死亡风险增加。然而,这种增加在所研究的城市中表现出显著的差异,并没有显示出 HW 特征与死亡率关系的任何一般模式。结果表明,这种关系非常复杂,而且在很大程度上取决于每个城市的当地特点,这就表明,为了有效地设计和实施预防措施,亟需在当地范围内研究和了解小家电的特点以及小家电与死亡率之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Source Attribution of Health Burdens From Ambient PM2.5, O3, and NO2 Exposure for Assessment of South Korean National Emission Control Scenarios by 2050 用于评估 2050 年韩国国家排放控制方案的环境 PM2.5、O3 和 NO2 暴露的健康负担源归因。
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001042
Jinkyul Choi, Daven K. Henze, M. Omar Nawaz, Christopher S. Malley

We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS-Chem simulations, satellite-derived NO2, and ground-based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long-term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5-, O3-, and NO2-associated premature deaths and the NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2-associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5- and O3-associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP-based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution.

我们量化了与韩国环境空气污染暴露相关的人为健康负担来源,并利用联合国环境规划署(UNEP)提供的 2050 年国内排放控制方案预测了未来的健康负担。我们的健康负担估算框架使用了 GEOS-Chem 模拟、卫星衍生的二氧化氮以及 PM2.5、O3 和二氧化氮的地面观测数据。我们估计,2016 年因长期暴露于 PM2.5、O3 和 NO2 而过早死亡的人数分别为 1.9 万、3300 和 8500 人,与 NO2 相关的儿童哮喘发病率为 2.3 万。接下来,我们使用邻接敏感性分析计算了每个物种和网格单元对这四种健康负担的人为排放贡献。在与 PM2.5、O3 和 NO2 相关的过早死亡人数和与 NO2 相关的儿童哮喘发病率的边际排放贡献中,国内来源分别占 56%、38%、87% 和 88%。我们利用联合国环境规划署的国内排放情景(基准和减缓)以及韩国统计局的人口预测,预测了到 2050 年的健康负担。仅由于人口老龄化,与 PM2.5、O3 和 NO2 暴露相关的过早死亡人数就分别增加了 41,000、10,000 和 20,000,与 NO2 相关的儿童哮喘发病率则减少了 9,000 例。与基线方案相比,减缓方案将与二氧化氮相关的健康效益提高了一倍,到 2050 年可防止 24,000 例过早死亡和 13,000 例儿童哮喘发病。同时,与 PM2.5 和 O3 相关的过早死亡人数也略有下降,降幅分别为 9.9% 和 7.0%,这与基线情景不同,基线情景中这些污染物会增加。此外,我们还研究了基于 SSP/RCP 的九种情景对国外排放的影响,强调了国际合作减少 PM2.5 和 O3 污染的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Ozone Mortality Burden Changes Driven by Population Aging and Regional Inequity in China in 2013–2050 2013-2050 年中国人口老龄化和地区不平等导致的臭氧死亡率变化。
IF 4.3 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001058
Xiaokang Chen, Zhe Jiang, Yanan Shen, Shuxiao Wang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang

Air pollution exposure is closely linked to population age and socioeconomic status. Population aging and imbalance in regional economy are thus anticipated to have important implications on ozone (O3)-related health impacts. Here we provide a driver analysis for O3 mortality burden due to respiratory disease in China over 2013–2050 driven by population aging and regional inequity. Unexpectedly, we find that population aging is estimated to result in dramatic rises in annual O3 mortality burden in China; by 56, 101–137, and 298–485 thousand over the periods 2013–2020, 2020–2030, and 2030–2050, respectively. This reflects the exponential rise in baseline mortality rates with increasing age. The aging-induced mortality burden rise in 2030–2050 is surprisingly large, as it is comparable to the net national mortality burden due to O3 exposure in 2030 (359–399 thousand yr−1). The health impacts of O3 pollution, shown as mortality burden per capita, are inequitably distributed, with more severe effects in less developed provinces than their developed counterparts by 23.1% and 21.5% in 2019 and 2030, respectively. However, the regional inequity in O3 mortality burden is expected to be mitigated in 2050. This temporal variation reflects evolving demographic dividend characterized by a larger proportion of younger individuals in developed regions. These findings are critical for targeted improvement of healthcare services to ensure the sustainability of social development.

空气污染暴露与人口年龄和社会经济状况密切相关。因此,人口老龄化和地区经济不平衡预计将对与臭氧(O3)相关的健康影响产生重要影响。在此,我们对 2013-2050 年期间中国因人口老龄化和地区不平等导致的呼吸系统疾病造成的臭氧死亡率负担进行了驱动因素分析。出乎意料的是,我们发现人口老龄化估计将导致中国每年的臭氧死亡率负担急剧上升;在 2013-2020 年、2020-2030 年和 2030-2050 年期间,分别上升 56、101-137 和 298-485 千人。这反映了随着年龄的增长,基准死亡率呈指数上升。2030-2050 年老龄化导致的死亡负担上升幅度之大令人惊讶,因为它与 2030 年全国因暴露于 O3 而导致的净死亡负担(35.9-39.9 万人/年-1)相当。臭氧污染对健康的影响(显示为人均死亡负担)分布不均,欠发达省份受到的影响比发达省份更严重,2019 年和 2030 年分别为 23.1%和 21.5%。不过,预计到 2050 年,臭氧死亡率负担的地区不公平现象将得到缓解。这种时间上的差异反映了人口红利的演变,发达地区年轻人口比例较大。这些发现对于有针对性地改善医疗保健服务以确保社会发展的可持续性至关重要。
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