Journal of Global Health最新文献

Background: Despite progress in reducing maternal and child mortality worldwide, adverse birth outcomes such as preterm birth, low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA), and stillbirth continue to be a major global health challenge. Developing a prediction model for adverse birth outcomes allows for early risk detection and prevention strategies. In this systematic review, we aimed to assess the performance of existing prediction models for adverse birth outcomes and provide a comprehensive summary of their findings.

Methods: We used the Population, Index prediction model, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, and Setting (PICOTS) approach to retrieve published studies from PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, African Journals Online, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library. We used WorldCat, Google, and Google Scholar to find the grey literature. We retrieved data before 1 March 2022. Data were extracted using CHecklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies. We assessed the risk of bias with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment tool. We descriptively reported the results in tables and graphs.

Results: We included 115 prediction models with the following outcomes: composite adverse birth outcomes (n = 6), LBW (n = 17), SGA (n = 23), preterm birth (n = 71), and stillbirth (n = 9). The sample sizes ranged from composite adverse birth outcomes (n = 32-549), LBW (n = 97-27 233), SGA (n = 41-116 070), preterm birth (n = 31-15 883 784), and stillbirth (n = 180-76 629). Only nine studies were conducted on low- and middle-income countries. 10 studies were externally validated. Risk of bias varied across studies, in which high risk of bias was reported on prediction models for SGA (26.1%), stillbirth (77.8%), preterm birth (31%), LBW (23.5%), and composite adverse birth outcome (33.3%). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was the most used metric to describe model performance. The AUROC ranged from 0.51 to 0.83 in studies that reported predictive performance for preterm birth. The AUROC for predicting SGA, LBW, and stillbirth varied from 0.54 to 0.81, 0.60 to 0.84, and 0.65 to 0.72, respectively. Maternal clinical features were the most utilised prognostic markers for preterm and LBW prediction, while uterine artery pulsatility index was used for stillbirth and SGA prediction.

Conclusions: A varied prognostic factors and heterogeneity between studies were found to predict adverse birth outcomes. Prediction models using consistent prognostic factors, external validation, and adaptation of future risk prediction models for adverse birth outcomes was recommended at different settings.

Registration: PROSPERO CRD42021281725.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted essential health care services worldwide, including those related to immunisation. National data from Bangladesh shows that child immunisation may have been adversely affected by the pandemic but regional evidence is limited. We therefore aimed to explore the regional differences in the indirect effects of COVID-19 on child immunisation in Bangladesh.

Methods: We extracted data from the District Health Information Software (DHIS2) spanning the period from January 2017 to December 2021. We examined three essential immunisation indicators: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), pentavalent third dose, and measles vaccinations. We examined both the yearly and monthly trends to explore fluctuations in the number of immunisations to pinpoint specific periods of service utilisation regression. Segmented regression with Poisson distribution was implemented given the count-based outcome. We reported incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in different regions in 2020 and 2021 compared to the reference period (2017-19).

Results: We initially observed a notable decline in vaccine administration in April 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic period of 2017-19 with a drop of approximately 53% for BCG vaccines, 55% for pentavalent third doses, and 51% for measles vaccines followed by May 2020. The second half of 2020 saw an increase in vaccination numbers. There were noticeable regional disparities, with Sylhet (IRR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.67-0.84 for pentavalent administration, IRR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.71-0.88 for measles administration) and Chattogram (IRR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.72-0.83 for BCG administration) experiencing the most significant reductions in 2020. In April 2020, Dhaka also experienced the largest decline of 67% in measles vaccination. In 2021, most divisions experienced a rebound in BCG and pentavalent administration, exceeding 2019 levels, except for Chittagong, where numbers continued to decline, falling below the 2019 figure.

Conclusions: Our findings highlight the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on childhood immunisation across regions in Bangladesh. Sylhet, Chattogram, and Dhaka divisions experienced the most significant reductions in immunisation services during 2020. This underscores the importance of targeted interventions and regional strategies to mitigate the indirect effects of future challenges on essential health care services, particularly childhood immunisation, in Bangladesh.

Background: Humanitarian crises frequently garner solidarity and robust volunteer recruitment among health care communities. However, a common obstacle is matching providers to those in need across geographic and other barriers. We examined the application of a decentralised governance strategy in establishing an emergency telemedicine response, TeleHelp Ukraine (THU).

Methods: Using a case study approach, we explored how global networking and technological advancements empower organisations to generate, access, disseminate, and utilise knowledge for sustainable health care delivery.

Results: Preliminary results suggest that a non-profit, decentralised model strengthened by robust team dynamics may optimise the distribution of clinical workload and scheduling procedures. Institutional and cultural diversity among health care providers and volunteers fosters the mobilisation of knowledge resources, synergistic collaboration, and tailored care standards that align with both provider and patient expectations. By integrating these diverse, distributed networks, a synergistic effect is achieved, combining effective learning mechanisms with intellectual capital.

Conclusions: Our study provides insights into the structure, implementation strategies, dissemination methodologies, and initial results of THU's operation. These findings may inform future emergency telemedicine responses in humanitarian scenarios, thereby reinforcing the practical implementation of health as a human right.

Background: Although dietary diversity (DD) has been confirmed to be associated with multiple health outcomes and longevity in older people, the related mechanisms have not been elucidated. In this study, we explored the mediating roles of physical activities and cognitive function in the relationship between DD and all-cause mortality.

Methods: We recruited 34 068 community-dwelling older adults aged ≥60 years from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study and followed them up until 2018. Dietary diversity score (DDS) was assessed by the intake frequency of nine food sources. We evaluated physical activities and cognitive function using the Katz index and Mini-Mental State Examination. We explored the mediating roles of physical activities and cognitive function between DDS and all-cause mortality using mediated analyses in Cox proportional risk regression models.

Results: A total of 25 362 deaths were recorded during 148 188.03 person-years of follow-up. Participants with physical disability and cognitive impairment had lower DDS than the normal group (P < 0.001). After controlling for all covariates, DDS, physical activities, and cognitive functioning were negatively associated with all-cause mortality. Physical activities and cognitive function mediated 18.29% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 12.90-23.10) and 27.84% (95% CI = 17.52-37.56) of the total effect of DDS on mortality, respectively.

Conclusions: Physical activities and cognitive function mediated the association between DDS and all-cause mortality. Maintaining DD may benefit early death prevention by reducing physical disability and cognitive impairment in community-dwelling older people.

Background: Historically, the US has been the largest contributor to development assistance for health (DAH), although its allocation has shifted in response to outside forces. This included, for example, the establishment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000, which emphasised child mortality, maternal health, HIV/AIDS, and malaria. This led to funds being earmarked for disease-specific interventions rather than health system strengthening (HSS). In 2007, the World Health Organization (WHO) published six health system building blocks, representing essential components of strong health systems. In 2015, the MDGs were replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which emphasised capacity-building as opposed to specific health problems. The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery, meanwhile, highlighted surgical capacity building as essential to achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Given the renewed emphasis on a comprehensive approach rather than disease-specific interventions, one might anticipate the US aligning with this rhetoric in its allocation of DAH. However, we hypothesise that this is not the case.

Methods: We queried the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) database for allocation of US DAH to low- and middle-income countries between 1995 and 2019, thereby excluding data after 2019 to avoid the influence of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. OECD entries were assigned to health systems strengthening (HSS) or disease-specific interventions categories. The WHO building blocks were used as a framework for health systems strengthening.

Results: From 1995 to 1999, US DAH allocated to HSS decreased from 42% to 34%. The allocation decreased further from 34% in 2000 to 4% in 2007; correspondingly, DAH allocated to disease-specific interventions increased from 67% to 96%. Between 2008 and 2019, the distribution of US DAH remained relatively stable, with funds allocated to HSS versus disease-specific interventions ranging from 3-12% and 88-98% respectively.

Conclusions: While total US DAH contributions in the 1990s and early 2000s were significantly lower compared to the decade that followed, the distribution of these funds was more evenly divided between HSS and disease-specific interventions. Despite attempts by the WHO and United Nations to redirect attention to HSS as the path to achieving UHC, the US continues to largely support disease-specific interventions and overlook the importance of HSS, including surgical capacity building.

Background: Addressing the problem of disabilities and disability deterioration is a key task for healthy ageing. Financial aid has been an effective measure for vulnerable groups, especially ageing people with disabilities. However, the effects of targeted financial aid on preventing disability deterioration remain unknown. The Chinese government launched a targeted financial aid programme aimed at people with disabilities. In this study, we investigated the causal effects of such targeted financial aid on disability deterioration prevention for elderly people with disabilities in China.

Methods: The data set used in this study included 36 640 elderly individuals with disabilities in China between 2016-19. We constructed a quasi-experiment approach and used a difference-in-differences (DID) method to examine the counterfactual differences between the treatment group in four cities that implemented such targeted financial aid in 2018 and the control group in three cities that did not adopt the policy over the study period. We employed propensity score matching (PSM) jointly with DID to mitigate selective bias. For sensitivity analysis, we conducted supplementary analyses on alternative samples, focusing on each of the treated cities respectively. Besides the main outcome, we also used fixed effect models to test the impact of such financial aid on rehabilitation access.

Results: The targeted financial aid significantly reduced the possibility of disability deterioration for elderly people with severe disabilities (0.26%; P < 0.001). Using PSM-DID models, the impact remained significant (0.33%; P < 0.001). Moreover, financial aid was significantly related to their access to rehabilitation services (12.71%; P < 0.001). Further analysis showed the heterogenous effects of targeted financial aid across individual demographic and socioeconomic factors, as well as communities with and without rehabilitation facilities.

Conclusions: Targeted financial aid had a positive impact on preventing disability deterioration among elderly individuals aged ≥65 years with severe disabilities. Moreover, rehabilitation care had a potential mediating role in the relationship between targeted financial aid and disability deterioration prevention. This study highlights the effectiveness of targeted financial aid in preventing disability deterioration and improving rehabilitation care for people with disabilities.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had a profound impact worldwide. In Bangladesh, the official number of deaths for COVID-19 was around 29 000. However, many countries including Bangladesh experienced substantial underreporting of COVID-19 deaths due to lack of complete national civil registration system. This study aims to estimate excess mortality in 2020, identify risk factors, and determine leading causes of death in Bangladesh.

Methods: In February 2021, we conducted a cross-sectional household survey in Sitakunda, a subdistrict of Chattogram, identifying deaths from January 2018 to December 2020. Excess mortality was quantified using the p-score and incidence rate ratio (IRR) utilising Poisson segmented regression. We employed the InterVA-5 algorithm to attribute causes of death. Proportional distribution and cause-specific mortality rates (CSMR) per 100 000 individuals were compared between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.

Results: Among 1748 deaths from 25 669 households, we found 1.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.4) times excess mortality in 2020 compared to 2018-2019. Leading causes of death in 2020 included cardiac disease (CSMR = 121.0, CI = 115.8-127.3), stroke (CSMR = 108.0, CI = 102.6-114.0), and acute respiratory infection (CSMR = 61.0, CI = 55.1-66.5), all displaying significantly higher mortality rates than in previous years. Older age (IRR = 1.6), less education (IRR = 1.8), and lower socio-economic groups (IRR = 2.1) had higher mortality rates in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic years.

Conclusion: Our study suggests high rural excess mortality during COVID-19 including cardiac disease, stroke and acute respiratory infection as the leading causes of deaths. We require targeted strategies to identify high-risk patients with comorbidity and social vulnerabilities that contribute to mortality to guide the preparedness strategy for future pandemics.

Background: Maternal mortality remains a challenge in Ghana, where 263 women per 100 000 live births die during pregnancy or childbirth. Barriers to reaching the recommended antenatal care (ANC) include poor access to quality health care, cultural factors, and lack of support for pregnant women.

Methods: We piloted two cross-randomized interventions: durbars, or local community meetings that incorporated education about ANC and supporting pregnant women, and an enhanced ANC model that added phone calls and a home visit to standard care. The study took place in 30 villages in the Upper East Region of Ghana between August 2021 and November 2022.

Results: We tracked 277 women during pregnancy, with 120 women randomly assigned to the enhanced ANC intervention and 142 women living in villages randomized to the durbar intervention. Women who were randomized to the enhanced ANC intervention were 13.2 percentage points (pp) (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.1, 24.3) more likely to have average or above average knowledge of pregnancy danger signs, 22.1 pp (95% CI = 9.1, 36.5) more likely to have a birth plan, 28.2 pp (95% CI = 13.0, 42.4) more likely to prepare the plan with their partners, and 16.4 pp (95% CI = 0.9, 29.3) more likely to pay for delivery with funds set aside in birth plan. They were also 35 pp (95% CI = 16.1, 48.1) more likely to make blood donor arrangements than control women who made birth plans. We found no impact of the durbar intervention on study outcomes.

Conclusions: Evidence from this pilot suggests that interventions that increase interactions between health providers and pregnant women outside of the health facility may substantially improve women's experience during pregnancy and maternal health outcomes. Providing structured ways for men to get engaged in ANC increased their involvement. Although we found no evidence the community meetings improved study outcomes, larger studies with repeated meetings and community-wide surveys are needed to make causal conclusions.

Registration: American Economic Association RCT Registry: 10360; ISCRNT: ISRCTN95961119.

Background: Multimodal prehabilitation and exercise prehabilitation are important processes for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. There are no reviews simultaneously analysing the effects of both types of prehabilitation for patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, ProQuest, and CINAHL Plus with Full Text for relevant randomised controlled trials on multimodal prehabilitation and exercise prehabilitation. The primary outcomes in our meta-analysis were functional capacity, hospital length of stay, postoperative complications, anxiety, and depression scores.

Results: We included 17 studies involving 1961 for colorectal surgery patients. The results of the meta-analysis suggested that multimodal prehabilitation could improve functional capacity (the 6-minute walk test) in patients undergoing colorectal surgery (mean difference (MD) = 29.00; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 26.64-31.36). In the subgroup analysis, multimodal prehabilitation improved functional capacity only preoperatively (MD = 34.77; 95% CI = 16.76-52.77) and did not improve the length of stay, postoperative complication, and anxiety and depression scores. Exercise prehabilitation did not show a positive effect on functional capacity, the length of stay, postoperative complication, and anxiety and depression scores.

Conclusions: Compared with exercise prehabilitation, multimodal prehabilitation was more likely improve the functional ability of patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Besides, the effects of multimodal prehabilitation or exercise prehabilitation on the length of stay, postoperative complications and anxiety and depression scores of colorectal surgery patients were not found.

Registration: PROSPERO: CRD42023453438.

Background: Cervical cancer is a global health threat and a manifestation of inequality, and screening is an effective intervention. However, little is known about how screening coverage and quality assurance, influence cervical cancer mortality. We aimed to investigate the association between screening coverage, screening quality assurance and cervical cancer mortality among women from countries at different developmental levels.

Methods: We obtained data on age-standardised mortality from cervical cancer from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database; coverage of cervical cancer screening from World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Observatory; and cervical screening programme settings and quality assurance from the Cancer Screening in Five Continents (CanScreen5) database. We assessed the dependency of cervical cancer age-standardised mortality on screening coverage and quality assurance by simple and multiple regression models. We also used linear regression models to identify factors that improved the screening coverage.

Results: The study included data from 53 countries. Reduced mortality was associated with increased screening programme quality assurance in 22 high-development countries. In 31 low-development countries, screening coverage in women aged 30-49 years was inversely associated with cervical cancer mortality. Political commitment (documentation of the cervical cancer screening policy as law) and financial support (treatment services provided free of charge) positively associated with screening coverage.

Conclusions: Screening programmes need strengthening commensurate with local resources and context. Priority should be given to improving screening coverage through stronger political commitment and financial support in low-development countries, and to ensuring good performance at all levels in high-development countries.