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Temporal and age-structured analysis of Mpox spread in the 2022 Global outbreak: data-assimilation insights for epidemic control. 2022年全球疫情中m痘传播的时间和年龄结构分析:流行病控制的数据同化见解
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01369-7
Tao Li, Xiaohao Guo, Xiaoli Wang, Tianmu Chen

Background: The global outbreak of mpox that began in 2022 caused sustained human-to-human transmission and demonstrates distinct epidemiological characteristics compared to previous outbreaks. Our aim is to quantify temporal variation of mpox transmissibility within or between age groups and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in real time.

Methods: The data used in this study is sourced from publicly available mpox confirmed cases data provided by WHO. We divided population into four age groups and constructed a transmission dynamics model with age structure of the population. And we estimated the transmissibilities of the monkeypox virus within or between age groups in real time by assimilation of global surveillance data from WHO, and performed intervention simulations in different scenarios we set up.

Results: The effective reproduction number of mpox in the 18-44 age group is significantly higher than in other age groups, and it initially experiences a rapid increase, enters a phase of steady decrease after reaching a certain point [ R 22 = 1.33 , 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.10-1.56]. Earlier implementation of interventions yields both superior effectiveness and greater cost-efficiency. Emergency vaccination for whole population initiated on June 15, 2022 reduced cumulative infections by 67.43% (95% CrI: 62.15-72.71) at only 40% coverage, whereas vaccination starting August 1, 2022 achieved only 47.86% (95% CrI: 42.70-53.01) reduction at 90% coverage. And high-risk-targeted and population-wide interventions showed limited effectiveness differences. Case management (3-day mean infectious period) initiated on July 15 achieved cumulative infection reductions of 59.84% (95% CrI: 54.28-65.40) when targeting the whole population, compared to 56.80% (95% CrI: 49.24-64.35) reduction when targeting only high-risk groups (aged 18-44 years).

Conclusions: The transmissibility of mpox within the 18-44 age group follows a distinct pattern of rapid growth-slow decline not observed to the same extent in other age groups. Real-time estimation of mpox transmissibility within or between age groups helps us to understand the dynamic process of mpox interpersonal transmission better and evaluate the effect of various interventions in real world more promptly.

背景:始于2022年的全球麻疹疫情造成了持续的人际传播,与以前的疫情相比显示出明显的流行病学特征。我们的目的是量化年龄组内或年龄组之间m痘传播率的时间变化,并实时评估干预措施的有效性。方法:本研究使用的数据来自世卫组织提供的公开可用的m痘确诊病例数据。我们将人口分为4个年龄组,并构建了人口年龄结构的传播动力学模型。我们通过同化世界卫生组织的全球监测数据,实时估计猴痘病毒在年龄组内或年龄组之间的传播,并在我们设置的不同场景中进行干预模拟。结果:18 ~ 44岁年龄组m痘有效繁殖数明显高于其他年龄组,最初呈快速上升趋势,达到一定程度后进入稳定下降阶段[R 22 = 1.33, 95%可信区间(CrI): 1.10 ~ 1.56]。尽早实施干预措施既能产生更好的效果,又能提高成本效益。2022年6月15日启动的全民紧急疫苗接种仅在40%的覆盖率下减少了67.43% (95% CrI: 62.15-72.71)的累积感染,而从2022年8月1日开始的疫苗接种仅在90%的覆盖率下减少了47.86% (95% CrI: 42.70-53.01)。针对高风险人群和人群的干预措施显示出有限的有效性差异。7月15日开始的病例管理(3天平均感染期)在针对全体人群时实现了59.84% (95% CrI: 54.28-65.40)的累积感染减少,而仅针对高危人群(18-44岁)时实现了56.80% (95% CrI: 49.24-64.35)的累积感染减少。结论:在18-44岁年龄组中,m痘的传播率遵循一个明显的快速增长-缓慢下降的模式,而在其他年龄组中没有观察到相同程度。实时估计年龄组内或年龄组间的m痘传播率有助于我们更好地了解m痘人际传播的动态过程,更及时地评估现实世界中各种干预措施的效果。
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引用次数: 0
First report of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions compromising HRP2-based malaria rapid diagnostic tests in Malawi. 马拉维首次报告pfhrp2和pfhrp3基因缺失影响基于hrp2的疟疾快速诊断检测。
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01368-8
Johnsy Mary Louis, Ernest Mazigo, Hojong Jun, Wang-Jong Lee, Jadidan Hada Syahada, Fadhila Fitriana, Fauzi Muh, Wanjoo Chun, Won Sun Park, Se Jin Lee, Sunghun Na, Feng Lu, Eun-Teak Han, Jin-Hee Han

Background: Histidine Rich Protein 2-based rapid diagnostic tests (HRP2-based RDTs) are widely used for malaria diagnosis in Malawi, but their accuracy may be compromised by Plasmodium falciparum parasites lacking the P. falciparum histidine rich protein 2 (pfhrp2) and P. falciparum histidine rich protein 3 (pfhrp3) genes. While such deletions have been reported in other malaria-endemic countries, their presence and diagnostic impact in Malawi remain unknown. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of pfhrp2/pfhrp3 gene deletions in Malawi and their effect on the diagnostic accuracy of HRP2-based RDTs relative to light microscopy and qPCR.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between December 2020 and June 2021, enrolling 1582 participants from referral hospitals in Mzuzu (n = 1186) and Lilongwe (n = 396). Malaria diagnosis was performed using RDTs, microscopy, and qPCR. A total of 391 P. falciparum positive samples were analyzed for pfhrp2/pfhrp3 gene deletions using multiplex qPCR. Diagnostic accuracy metrics, such as sensitivity and specificity, were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Spearman correlation was applied to assess associations involving log-transformed parasitemia, unpaired t-tests were used to compare diagnostic methods, and Mann-Whitney tests were used to compare symptomatic and asymptomatic groups.

Results: Malaria prevalence was higher in Lilongwe (45.2%) than in Mzuzu (22.9%). Infections in Lilongwe were predominantly asymptomatic (94.2%), whereas Mzuzu had mostly symptomatic cases (97.1%) (P < 0.0002). RDTs demonstrated higher sensitivity of 78.5% (95% CI: 74.6-82.1%) than microscopy 64.8% (95% CI: 60.3-69.1), but slightly lower specificity, with 93.6% (95% CI: 92.0-95.0%) for RDT compared to 95.4% (95% CI: 94.0-96.6%) for microscopy. Dual pfhrp2/3 gene deletions were found in 24 (15.0%) isolates from Lilongwe and 24 (10.4%) from Mzuzu. All dual-deleted samples were false negative by RDT but were positive by microscopy and qPCR.

Conclusions: This study is the first to report pfhrp2/3 gene deletions in Malawi. The presence of these deletions may compromise the performance of HRP2-based RDTs, indicating the need to reassess diagnostic strategies in affected regions.

背景:基于组氨酸富蛋白2的快速诊断试验(HRP2-based RDTs)在马拉维广泛用于疟疾诊断,但其准确性可能受到缺乏恶性疟原虫组氨酸富蛋白2 (pfhrp2)和恶性疟原虫组氨酸富蛋白3 (pfhrp3)基因的恶性疟原虫寄生虫的影响。虽然在其他疟疾流行国家也报告了这种缺失,但它们在马拉维的存在和诊断影响仍然未知。本研究旨在确定马拉维pfhrp2/pfhrp3基因缺失的患病率,以及相对于光显微镜和qPCR,它们对基于hrp2的rdt诊断准确性的影响。方法:在2020年12月至2021年6月期间进行了一项横断面研究,纳入了来自Mzuzu (n = 1186)和利隆圭(n = 396)转诊医院的1582名参与者。使用rdt、显微镜和qPCR进行疟疾诊断。采用多重qPCR对391份恶性疟原虫阳性样本进行pfhrp2/pfhrp3基因缺失分析。诊断准确性指标,如敏感性和特异性,以95%的置信区间计算。Spearman相关性用于评估对数转化寄生虫血症的相关性,非配对t检验用于比较诊断方法,Mann-Whitney检验用于比较有症状组和无症状组。结果:利隆圭市疟疾患病率(45.2%)高于姆祖祖市(22.9%)。利隆圭的感染主要无症状(94.2%),而Mzuzu的感染主要有症状(97.1%)。(P)结论:本研究首次在马拉维报道了pfhrp2/3基因缺失。这些缺失的存在可能会影响基于hrp2的rdt的性能,这表明需要重新评估受影响地区的诊断策略。
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引用次数: 0
Molecular diagnosis of suspected intestinal schistosomiasis in a non-endemic area of Yunnan Province, China. 云南省某非流行区疑似肠血吸虫病的分子诊断
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01372-y
Shiyuan Wu, Chunhong Du, Chunli Cao, Jihuang Yang, Fang Luo, Xiaolin Ma, Qing Hu, Minwei Yuan, Yun Zhang, Zongya Zhang, Zaogai Yang, Changchun Gou, Li Wang, Jizhou Han, Shizhu Li, Yi Dong, Jipeng Wang

Background: While Schistosoma japonicum is endemic in the Yangtze River Basin and parts of Yunnan and Sichuan provinces in China, Mangshi City in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province, is not recognized as an endemic area. Between 1996 and 2018, more than 20 suspected schistosomiasis cases were reported in this region. Despite clinical symptoms consistent with S. japonicum infection, no eggs were detected in feces, and the intermediate host Oncomelania hupensis was absent locally. Most patients had no travel history to known endemic areas, leaving the infections unconfirmed.

Findings: Rectal biopsy specimens from four suspected cases, preserved as formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues, were re-examined. Microscopy revealed egg-like structures resembling Schistosoma spp. in the specimens. Due to severe DNA degradation from long-term storage (6-16 years), a micro-library construction method was applied to two samples to enable next-generation sequencing (NGS). Using two independent alignment strategies, multiple sequence reads corresponding to S. japonicum were identified in both samples, providing molecular confirmation of infection.

Conclusions: This study presents the first molecular evidence confirming S. japonicum infection in a non-endemic area of Yunnan Province. The findings highlight the diagnostic potential of combining FFPE samples with NGS to resolve long-standing suspected cases lacking conventional parasitological evidence and underscore the importance of continued surveillance in regions not currently classified as endemic.

背景:日本血吸虫在中国长江流域及云南、四川部分地区有流行,而云南省德宏州芒市尚未被认定为日本血吸虫的流行地区。1996年至2018年期间,该地区报告了20多例疑似血吸虫病病例。尽管临床症状与日本血吸虫感染一致,但粪便中未检出卵,当地未见中间宿主甲型钉螺。大多数患者没有到已知流行地区的旅行史,因此感染未得到证实。结果:对4例疑似病例的直肠活检标本进行重新检查,标本保存为福尔马林固定石蜡包埋(FFPE)组织。显微镜观察发现标本中有类似血吸虫的卵状结构。由于长期储存(6-16年)导致DNA严重降解,因此对两份样品采用微文库构建方法进行新一代测序(NGS)。使用两种独立的比对策略,在两个样本中鉴定出与日本血吸虫相对应的多个序列reads,为感染提供了分子证实。结论:本研究首次提供了在云南省非疫区发现日本血吸虫感染的分子证据。这些发现突出了FFPE样本与NGS相结合的诊断潜力,以解决缺乏常规寄生虫学证据的长期疑似病例,并强调了在目前未被列为流行地区继续监测的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
An exploratory study to assess the influence of schistosomiasis on the occurrence of dengue virus in Madagascar. 评估血吸虫病对马达加斯加登革热病毒发生影响的探索性研究。
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01370-0
Jana Christina Hey, Tahinamandranto Rasamoelina, Anjarasoa Ravo Razafindrakoto, Nantenaina Matthieu Razafindralava, Zaraniaina Tahiry Rasolojaona, Stephanie Leyk, Sreejith Rajasekharan, Lucas Wilken, Tiana Randrianarisoa, Tojo Rémi Rafaralahivoavy, Jacques Hainasoa, Raphael Rakotozandrindrainy, Njary Randriamampionona, Norbert Georg Schwarz, Anna Jaeger, Aaron Remkes, Jean-Marc Kutz, Pia Rausche, Irina Kislaya, Valentina Marchese, Christa Ehmen, Christina Deschermeier, Jürgen May, Lidia Bosurgi, Rivo Andry Rakotoarivelo, Pietro Scaturro, Daniela Fusco

Background: Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent mosquito-borne virus worldwide, with approximately half of the world's population at risk of infection. Although it has been shown that parasitic infections can influence viral co-infections the role of schistosomiasis has not yet been explored. The objective of this exploratory study was to investigate the influence of schistosome infection on DENV infection in Madagascar.

Methods: Between March 2020 and October 2022 we recruited participants in the regions of Boeny and Atsinanana to assess the seroprevalence of DENV in the country using highly specific tests for the detection of IgG antibodies and investigated the influence of schistosome infections on DENV infections through a plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT). For this, additional participants were recruited in Haute Matsiatra between July 2022 and March 2023, Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of the PRNT results with schistosome infections.

Results: For the first time, we report a low seroprevalence of DENV (up to 3.3%) in areas with a high prevalence (> 50%) of schistosome infection. Additionally, we could demonstrate that sera derived from schistosome-infected individuals exert a significant antiviral activity against DENV infection (up to 27.5%). A Poisson regression analysis revealed that, among the possible factors assessed, the schistosome infection status was the only factor associated with the inhibitory effects against DENV infection in the PRNT. Finally, we could observe that highest IgE level were found in participants showing the greatest reduction in viral infection in the PRNT.

Conclusions: Our data suggest that schistosomiasis might play a protective role against DENV infections. These findings offer new perspectives regarding how chronic parasitic infections affect the dynamics of DENV infections in Africa.

背景:登革热病毒(DENV)是世界上最流行的蚊媒病毒,约有一半的世界人口面临感染风险。虽然已经证明寄生虫感染可以影响病毒合并感染,但尚未探索血吸虫病的作用。本探索性研究的目的是探讨血吸虫感染对马达加斯加DENV感染的影响。方法:在2020年3月至2022年10月期间,我们招募了Boeny和Atsinanana地区的参与者,使用检测IgG抗体的高度特异性测试来评估该国DENV的血清患病率,并通过斑块减少中和试验(PRNT)调查血吸虫感染对DENV感染的影响。为此,在2022年7月至2023年3月期间在Haute Matsiatra招募了额外的参与者,使用泊松回归模型评估PRNT结果与血吸虫感染的关系。结果:我们首次报道了在血吸虫感染高发地区DENV的低血清患病率(高达3.3%)。此外,我们可以证明来自血吸虫感染个体的血清对DENV感染具有显著的抗病毒活性(高达27.5%)。泊松回归分析显示,在评估的可能因素中,血吸虫感染状态是PRNT中唯一与DENV感染抑制效果相关的因素。最后,我们可以观察到,在PRNT中,IgE水平最高的参与者显示出病毒感染的最大减少。结论:我们的数据提示血吸虫病可能对DENV感染起保护作用。这些发现为慢性寄生虫感染如何影响非洲DENV感染动态提供了新的视角。
{"title":"An exploratory study to assess the influence of schistosomiasis on the occurrence of dengue virus in Madagascar.","authors":"Jana Christina Hey, Tahinamandranto Rasamoelina, Anjarasoa Ravo Razafindrakoto, Nantenaina Matthieu Razafindralava, Zaraniaina Tahiry Rasolojaona, Stephanie Leyk, Sreejith Rajasekharan, Lucas Wilken, Tiana Randrianarisoa, Tojo Rémi Rafaralahivoavy, Jacques Hainasoa, Raphael Rakotozandrindrainy, Njary Randriamampionona, Norbert Georg Schwarz, Anna Jaeger, Aaron Remkes, Jean-Marc Kutz, Pia Rausche, Irina Kislaya, Valentina Marchese, Christa Ehmen, Christina Deschermeier, Jürgen May, Lidia Bosurgi, Rivo Andry Rakotoarivelo, Pietro Scaturro, Daniela Fusco","doi":"10.1186/s40249-025-01370-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s40249-025-01370-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent mosquito-borne virus worldwide, with approximately half of the world's population at risk of infection. Although it has been shown that parasitic infections can influence viral co-infections the role of schistosomiasis has not yet been explored. The objective of this exploratory study was to investigate the influence of schistosome infection on DENV infection in Madagascar.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Between March 2020 and October 2022 we recruited participants in the regions of Boeny and Atsinanana to assess the seroprevalence of DENV in the country using highly specific tests for the detection of IgG antibodies and investigated the influence of schistosome infections on DENV infections through a plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT). For this, additional participants were recruited in Haute Matsiatra between July 2022 and March 2023, Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of the PRNT results with schistosome infections.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>For the first time, we report a low seroprevalence of DENV (up to 3.3%) in areas with a high prevalence (> 50%) of schistosome infection. Additionally, we could demonstrate that sera derived from schistosome-infected individuals exert a significant antiviral activity against DENV infection (up to 27.5%). A Poisson regression analysis revealed that, among the possible factors assessed, the schistosome infection status was the only factor associated with the inhibitory effects against DENV infection in the PRNT. Finally, we could observe that highest IgE level were found in participants showing the greatest reduction in viral infection in the PRNT.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our data suggest that schistosomiasis might play a protective role against DENV infections. These findings offer new perspectives regarding how chronic parasitic infections affect the dynamics of DENV infections in Africa.</p>","PeriodicalId":48820,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","volume":"14 1","pages":"97"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12465191/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145151507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ecological dynamics of field Aedes albopictus populations under Wolbachia-mediated suppression. 沃尔巴克氏体抑制下白纹伊蚊野外种群生态动态。
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01367-9
Yongjun Li, Jun-Tao Gong, Yongkang Liang, Linchao Hu, Yingyang Wei, Renxian Gan, Xiaohua Wang, Jianshe Yu, Moxun Tang, Ary A Hoffmann, Bo Zheng, Zhiyong Xi

Background: The incompatible insect technique (IIT), based on Wolbachia-induced conditional sterility, has proven highly effective in suppressing mosquito populations for dengue control. However, concerns that accidental release of infected females could drive population replacement have prompted integration of IIT with irradiation or advanced sex-separation technologies. Moreover, the broader ecological consequences of IIT-based suppression remain insufficiently understood. Here, we investigated whether standalone IIT, leveraging Wolbachia-associated fitness costs under real-world conditions, can effectively suppress Aedes albopictus populations without causing replacement, while also addressing key ecological concerns related to IIT-based mosquito population suppression.

Methods: We conducted field trials on Shazai Island, Nansha District, Guangzhou, China, releasing approximately 16,000 Wolbachia wPip-transinfected A. albopictus HC males per hectare per week from 2018 to 2019, following three years of combined IIT and sterile insect technique (SIT) application. Population suppression was monitored, with wPip infection frequency assessed to evaluate population replacement risks. Two-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations incorporating Wolbachia-induced fitness costs was established to predict population dynamics. Additionally, we assessed female mating preferences after three years of suppression and the impact on non-target Culex quinquefasciatus populations.

Results: We offer both empirical evidence and a mathematical model, demonstrating that the fitness costs associated with a Wolbachia triple-strain infection in A. albopictus, especially in adverse field conditions, empower a standalone IIT to effectively suppress mosquito populations without causing population replacement. Remarkably, reducing the previous release numbers to just 20% sustained a similar suppression level. We found no evidence of changes in female mating preferences after a three-year field suppression. The suppression of A. albopictus does not impact the population of the coexisting nontarget species C. quinquefasciatus. After stopping releases, the population rebounded partially in Year 1 and appeared to fully recover in Year 2, with the rate of this recovery likely influenced by mosquito immigration associated with population flow.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the robustness, cost-effectiveness, scalability, and ecological safety of IIT as a tool for controlling mosquito-borne diseases. These findings support the implementation of field-applicable, low-dose IIT for sustainable dengue control.

背景:基于沃尔巴克氏体诱导条件不育的不相容昆虫技术(IIT)在抑制蚊虫种群以控制登革热方面已被证明是非常有效的。然而,由于担心意外释放受感染的雌性可能导致种群更替,因此促使将IIT与辐照或先进的性别分离技术相结合。此外,基于iit的压制的更广泛的生态后果仍然没有得到充分的了解。在这里,我们调查了在现实条件下利用沃尔巴克氏体相关适应度成本的独立IIT是否可以有效地抑制白纹伊蚊种群而不引起替代,同时也解决了与基于IIT的蚊子种群抑制相关的关键生态问题。方法:在中国广州南沙区沙仔岛进行田间试验,2018 - 2019年每公顷每周释放约1.6万只感染沃尔巴克氏体wpip的白纹伊蚊HC雄蚊,采用IIT和昆虫不育技术(SIT)联合应用3年。监测种群抑制情况,评估wPip感染频率以评估种群替代风险。建立了包含沃尔巴克氏体适应度代价的二维常微分方程组来预测种群动态。此外,我们还评估了三年后雌性的交配偏好以及对非目标致倦库蚊种群的影响。结果:我们提供了经验证据和数学模型,表明与白纹伊蚊沃尔巴克氏体三株感染相关的适应度成本,特别是在不利的野外条件下,使独立的IIT能够有效地抑制蚊子种群,而不会导致种群替换。值得注意的是,将之前的发布数量减少到20%也维持了类似的抑制水平。经过3年的野外抑制,我们没有发现雌性交配偏好发生变化的证据。对白纹伊蚊的抑制对共存的非靶种致倦库蚊种群没有影响。在停止释放后,种群数量在第1年出现部分反弹,并在第2年出现完全恢复,这种恢复速度可能受到与种群流动相关的蚊子迁移的影响。结论:我们的研究证明了IIT作为控制蚊媒疾病工具的稳健性、成本效益、可扩展性和生态安全性。这些发现支持实施适用于现场的低剂量IIT,以实现可持续的登革热控制。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial-temporal risk of Opisthorchis felineus infection in Western Siberia and the Ural Region of Russian Federation: a joint Bayesian modelling study based on survey and surveillance data. 西伯利亚西部和俄罗斯联邦乌拉尔地区猫毛绦虫感染的时空风险:基于调查和监测数据的联合贝叶斯模型研究
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01363-z
Wen-Long Zhang, Yuan-Hong Zeng, Ying-Si Lai

Background: Opisthorchiasis infected by Opisthorchis felineus has represented a significant but understudied public health issue for the population residing in Western Siberia and the Ural Region of the Russian Federation. This study aimed to produce high-resolution spatial-temporal disease risk maps for guiding prevention strategy in the above region.

Methods: Data on prevalence and surveillance data reflecting reported annual incidence rate of O. felineus infection in the study region were collected through systematic review and the annual reports of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation. Environmental, socioeconomic and demographic data were downloaded from different open-access data sources. An advanced multivariate Bayesian geostatistical modeling approach was developed to estimate the O. felineus infection risk at high-resolution spatial-temporal by joint analysis of survey and surveillance data, incorporating potential influencing factors and spatial-temporal random effects. The annual spatial-temporal risk maps of O. felineus infection at a resolution of 5 × 5 km2 were produced.

Results: The final dataset included 76 locations of survey data and 303 locations of surveillance data on O. felineus infection. The infection risk was high (> 25%) in most part of central and eastern regions, and relatively low (< 25%) in most part of western region, while temporal variations were observed across the sub-regions in recent decades. Particularly, in the densely populated eastern region, there was an increased trend of infection risk from 30.46% (95% Bayesian credible intervals, BCI 10.78-53.45%) in 1980 to 53.39% (95% BCI 13.77-91.93%) in 2019 and gradually transformed into high-risk. In the study region (excluding the western region due to data sparsity), the population-adjusted estimated prevalence was 46.61% (95% BCI 15.09-76.50%) in 2019, corresponding to approximately 7.91 million (95% BCI 2.56-12.98 million) people infected.

Conclusions: The high-resolution risk maps of O. felineus in Western Siberia and the Ural Region of the Russian Federation have effectively captured the risk profiles, suggesting the infection risk remains high in recent years and providing substantial evidence for spatial-target control and preventive strategies.

背景:对于居住在西伯利亚西部和俄罗斯联邦乌拉尔地区的人口来说,由猫角绦虫感染的蛇绦虫病是一个重要但尚未得到充分研究的公共卫生问题。本研究旨在生成高分辨率的时空疾病风险图,以指导上述地区的预防策略。方法:通过系统评价和俄罗斯联邦卫生部的年度报告,收集研究区域的流行病学数据和反映年发病率的监测数据。从不同的开放获取数据源下载了环境、社会经济和人口数据。通过对调查和监测数据的联合分析,结合潜在影响因素和时空随机效应,建立了一种先进的多变量贝叶斯地统计建模方法,在高分辨率时空上对狐伊蚊感染风险进行估计。绘制了5 × 5 km2分辨率的年时空感染风险图。结果:最终数据集包括76个调查数据点和303个监测数据点。结论:俄罗斯联邦西西伯利亚和乌拉尔地区高分辨率狐伊蚊感染风险图有效地反映了该地区狐伊蚊的感染风险特征,提示近年来该地区狐伊蚊感染风险仍然较高,为制定空间目标控制和预防策略提供了重要依据。
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引用次数: 0
Area-level socioeconomic variables associated with territorial disparities in tuberculosis notification rates in metropolitan France: a Bayesian ecological analysis. 与法国大城市结核病通报率的地域差异相关的区域级社会经济变量:贝叶斯生态分析。
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01354-0
Camille Pelat, Anne Bernadou, Philippe Fraisse, Cyrille Delpierre, Yousra Kherabi, Jean-Paul Guthmann, Stéphanie Vandentorren

Background: Although France is considered a low tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, TB remains a significant public health issue in certain high-risk groups and geographic areas, potentially linked to socioeconomic determinants. This study aims to assess the associations between TB notification rates and area-level socioeconomic variables in metropolitan France.

Methods: We conducted an ecological spatial study using TB cases reported to the French national surveillance system from 2008 to 2019. Using Bayesian Poisson regression, we modeled TB case counts at the ZIP code level. Standardized notification rates were estimated through indirect standardization by age, sex, immigration status, and housing type. The model included ZIP code level socioeconomic variables and a spatial random effect to account for spatial autocorrelation and residual variations in notification rates, which may relate to territorial disparities in reporting completeness.

Results: The study included 55,330 reported TB cases across 4478 of 5534 ZIP codes in metropolitan France. All tested socioeconomic variables showed varying associations with TB. In the multivariable model, an increase in population density from 'Low' to 'High' was associated with a 30% increase [95% credible interval (CrI): 21%, 38%] in standardized TB notification rates. An increase from the first to the ninth decile in the unemployment rate among those aged 15-64 was associated with a 28% increase (95% CrI: 19%, 37%). Similarly, an increase in the proportion of overcrowded households was associated with a 19% increase (95% CrI: 11%, 28%). Conversely, an increase in median household income was associated with a 7% decrease (95% CrI: 1%, 11%).

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that TB notification rates are independently associated with material deprivation, such as unemployment and low income, as well as crowded settings, including overcrowded households and densely populated areas. Enhancing TB control in metropolitan France could involve targeted outreach programs for screening and treatment in materially deprived areas, characterized by high unemployment rates and low median incomes, and adopting a 'Health in All Policies' approach to address urban and household crowding.

背景:尽管法国被认为是结核病发病率低的国家,但在某些高危人群和地理区域,结核病仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题,可能与社会经济决定因素有关。本研究旨在评估法国大城市结核病报告率与地区一级社会经济变量之间的关系。方法:利用2008 - 2019年法国国家监测系统报告的结核病病例进行生态空间研究。使用贝叶斯泊松回归,我们对邮政编码水平的结核病病例计数进行了建模。标准化通报率通过年龄、性别、移民身份和住房类型的间接标准化来估计。该模型包括邮政编码水平的社会经济变量和空间随机效应,以解释通报率的空间自相关和剩余变化,这可能与报告完整性的地域差异有关。结果:该研究包括55,330例报告的结核病病例,分布在法国大都市5534个邮政编码中的4478个。所有测试的社会经济变量都显示出与结核病的不同关联。在多变量模型中,人口密度从“低”增加到“高”与标准化结核病通报率增加30%相关[95%可信区间(CrI): 21%, 38%]。15-64岁人群的失业率从前十分之一上升到第九十分之一与28%的增长相关(95%比值:19%,37%)。同样,过度拥挤家庭比例的增加与19%的增长相关(95% CrI: 11%, 28%)。相反,家庭收入中位数的增加与7%的下降相关(95% CrI: 1%, 11%)。结论:我们的研究结果表明,结核病通报率与物质匮乏(如失业和低收入)以及拥挤环境(包括过度拥挤的家庭和人口稠密的地区)独立相关。加强法国大城市的结核病控制可以包括在物质贫困地区开展有针对性的筛查和治疗外展项目,这些地区的特点是失业率高、收入中位数低,并采取“将健康纳入所有政策”的方法来解决城市和家庭拥挤问题。
{"title":"Area-level socioeconomic variables associated with territorial disparities in tuberculosis notification rates in metropolitan France: a Bayesian ecological analysis.","authors":"Camille Pelat, Anne Bernadou, Philippe Fraisse, Cyrille Delpierre, Yousra Kherabi, Jean-Paul Guthmann, Stéphanie Vandentorren","doi":"10.1186/s40249-025-01354-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s40249-025-01354-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Although France is considered a low tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, TB remains a significant public health issue in certain high-risk groups and geographic areas, potentially linked to socioeconomic determinants. This study aims to assess the associations between TB notification rates and area-level socioeconomic variables in metropolitan France.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted an ecological spatial study using TB cases reported to the French national surveillance system from 2008 to 2019. Using Bayesian Poisson regression, we modeled TB case counts at the ZIP code level. Standardized notification rates were estimated through indirect standardization by age, sex, immigration status, and housing type. The model included ZIP code level socioeconomic variables and a spatial random effect to account for spatial autocorrelation and residual variations in notification rates, which may relate to territorial disparities in reporting completeness.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study included 55,330 reported TB cases across 4478 of 5534 ZIP codes in metropolitan France. All tested socioeconomic variables showed varying associations with TB. In the multivariable model, an increase in population density from 'Low' to 'High' was associated with a 30% increase [95% credible interval (CrI): 21%, 38%] in standardized TB notification rates. An increase from the first to the ninth decile in the unemployment rate among those aged 15-64 was associated with a 28% increase (95% CrI: 19%, 37%). Similarly, an increase in the proportion of overcrowded households was associated with a 19% increase (95% CrI: 11%, 28%). Conversely, an increase in median household income was associated with a 7% decrease (95% CrI: 1%, 11%).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our findings suggest that TB notification rates are independently associated with material deprivation, such as unemployment and low income, as well as crowded settings, including overcrowded households and densely populated areas. Enhancing TB control in metropolitan France could involve targeted outreach programs for screening and treatment in materially deprived areas, characterized by high unemployment rates and low median incomes, and adopting a 'Health in All Policies' approach to address urban and household crowding.</p>","PeriodicalId":48820,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","volume":"14 1","pages":"94"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12447623/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145092973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the early stage Chikungunya fever outbreak in Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China in 2025. 2025年广东省佛山市基孔肯雅热早期暴发流行病学特征及传播动态
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01364-y
Meng Zhang, Yihong Li, Xiqing Huang, Man Liu, Siyang Jiang, Biao Zeng, Luxiang Ouyang, Jianhua Huang, Bing Mai, Qihua Guan, Jiazhi Zeng, Muying Fu, Bingu Zhuo, Yawen Liu, Qin Zeng, Naling Zhu, Tao Wang, Xiaojun Huang, Yimin Pan, Mingji Cheng, Penghui Jia, Xiaofang Peng, Jinhua Duan, Baisheng Li, Jianfeng He, Yanping Zhang, Lei Zhou, Min Kang, Jianpeng Xiao, Zefeng Yang, Yan Li

Background: As of July 22, 2025, the chikungunya virus transmission has been documented across 119 countries and territories of the world. In 2025, an outbreak of chikungunya fever (CF) occurred in Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. We aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics during the early stage of this outbreak.

Methods: We collected the data of CF cases in Foshan from July 8 to July 26, 2025. Case data were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. Demographics and tempo-spatial distributions of cases, incidence rates and the onset-to-report interval times were analyzed. Global spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) to assess township-level clustering; Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn's post-hoc comparisons (Bonferroni-corrected) to analyze onset-to-report intervals across four epidemic phases. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated using a maximum likelihood method, which was also compared with the R0 from the CF outbreak in Dongguan City of Guangdong Province in 2010.

Results: A total of 4,754 local cases were reported during the study period. Persons aged 65 years or above had the highest incidence (116.57 per 100,000 population). Most cases were business/service workers, homemakers, and retirees. The median onset-to-report interval decreased from 4 days to 1 day after outbreak control measures were implemented. The outbreak, initially detected in Shunde District, spread rapidly to other districts of Foshan, forming a significant spatial cluster (Moran's I = 0.152, P = 0.029). The estimated R0 was 16.3 (95% confidence interval: 15.0 to 17.5), substantially higher than the estimated R0 of 5.5 for the Dongguan outbreak in 2010.

Conclusions: This outbreak was characterized by high transmissibility, with older persons being a primary high-risk group. The rapid reduction in case reporting delay highlights the effectiveness of response interventions. Sustained, integrated and prompt response has been essential to control the outbreak.

背景:截至2025年7月22日,基孔肯雅病毒传播已在世界119个国家和地区得到记录。2025年,中国广东省佛山市暴发了基孔肯雅热。我们的目的是分析疫情早期的流行病学特征和传播动态。方法:收集佛山市2025年7月8日- 7月26日CF病例资料。病例数据来自国家法定传染病报告系统。分析病例、发病率和发病至报告间隔时间的人口统计学和时空分布。基于全局空间自相关(Moran’s I)的城镇集聚评价Kruskal-Wallis测试了Dunn的事后比较(Bonferroni-corrected),以分析四个流行病阶段的发病到报告间隔。采用最大似然法计算基本再现数(R0),并与2010年广东省东莞市CF暴发的R0进行比较。结果:研究期间共报告局部病例4754例。65岁或以上人士的发病率最高(每10万人中有116.57人)。大多数病例是商业/服务工作者、家庭主妇和退休人员。在实施疫情控制措施后,发病至报告间隔的中位数从4天减少到1天。疫情最初在顺德区发现,随后迅速向佛山其他区扩散,形成明显的空间聚集性(Moran’s I = 0.152, P = 0.029)。估计R0为16.3(95%可信区间:15.0至17.5),大大高于2010年东莞疫情估计的R0为5.5。结论:本次疫情具有高传播性,老年人为主要高危人群。病例报告延误的迅速减少突出了应对干预措施的有效性。持续、综合和迅速的应对对于控制疫情至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing community-based one health interventions implementation beyond Mpox outbreak management in Africa: insights and benefits. 在非洲利用基于社区的一种卫生干预措施实施超越麻疹暴发管理:见解和效益。
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01348-y
Ernest Tambo, Brice G Djopmo, Joelle N Djamfa, Leonel D Z Temomo, Odile Djouka, Florence Akiiki Bitalabebo, Jules C Assob

Background: Little is documented on key community-based One Health (OH) approach implementation, pro-activeness and effectiveness of interactions and strategies against Mpox outbreak public health emergency in international concern (PHEIC) in various African countries in order to stamp out the persisting Mpox outbreak threat and burden. Prioritizing critical community-based interventions and lessons learned from previous COVID-19, Mpox, Ebola, COVID-19, Rift Valley Fever and Marburg virus outbreaks revealed critical shortcomings in funding, surveillance, and community engagement that plague public health initiatives across the continent. The article provides critical insights and benefits of community-based One Health approaches implementation against Mpox outbreak management in Africa.

Main body: Our findings provides a comprehensive community and primary healthcare systems strategies essential to foster community engagement and resilience, while addressing the social determinants of health. Investing in targeted, effective and contextual community-based OH strategies implementation shows to improve immediate vulnerable communities integrated (human,animal and environment) preparedness and response and building sustainable resilience strategies against Mpox and future emergencies threats. The importance of global and regional multi-sectorial collaboration, solidarity and coordination cannot be over-emphasized, to mobilize resource, sharing knowledge and successes in enhancing local OH anticipatory and ownership programs capabilities for equitably shared benefits. Timely strengthening community empowerment and national health systems last miles, WASH and vaccination activities are essential to control, contain and sustainable recovery from the ongoing Mpox outbreak and future crises. Tackling survivors and at high risk affected populations stigma, fear and misinformation surrounding Mpox those hinder effective health communication and disease management, highlighting the need for culturally sensitive educational and empowerment strategies. A comprehensive assessment community-based one-health approaches implementation was performed to understand and prioritize key data-driven community-based OH strategies in infectious disease outbreaks beyond. Leveraging on outbreak valuable lessons learned and emerging technologies benefits in addressing the health social determinants, optimizing Mpox PHEIC implemented programs capabilities efforts, building communities resilience and sustainable solutions, and prioritizing strategies against outbreaks/pandemics threats and burden.

Conclusions: Catalyzing evidence-based community-based OH governance, leadership and domestic financing commitment serve as a critical engine connecting all stakeholders in prioritizing and optimizing unprecedented outbreaks threats preparedness and response initiatives implementation and upholding global health securi

背景:关于非洲各国为消除持续存在的Mpox暴发威胁和负担而采取的以社区为基础的“同一个健康”(OH)方法的实施、相互作用的主动性和有效性以及针对Mpox暴发国际关注的突发公共卫生事件(PHEIC)的战略的记录很少。优先考虑关键的社区干预措施以及从以往COVID-19、Mpox、埃博拉、COVID-19、裂谷热和马尔堡病毒疫情中吸取的经验教训,揭示了在资金、监测和社区参与方面存在的严重缺陷,这些缺陷困扰着整个非洲大陆的公共卫生行动。这篇文章提供了在非洲实施以社区为基础的“一个健康”方法管理麻疹疫情的重要见解和益处。主体:我们的研究结果提供了一个全面的社区和初级卫生保健系统战略,对于促进社区参与和复原力至关重要,同时解决健康的社会决定因素。投资于有针对性、有效和有背景的社区卫生保健战略的实施表明,可以改善当前脆弱社区的综合(人类、动物和环境)准备和应对,并建立针对麻疹和未来紧急情况威胁的可持续复原力战略。在调动资源、分享知识和成功经验方面,全球和区域多部门合作、团结和协调的重要性再怎么强调都不为过,这有助于提高地方卫生保健预期和所有权计划的能力,从而公平分享利益。及时加强社区赋权和国家卫生系统的最后几英里、讲卫生运动和疫苗接种活动对于控制、遏制正在发生的麻疹疫情和未来危机并从中持续恢复至关重要。应对幸存者和高风险受影响人群围绕Mpox的污名、恐惧和错误信息,这些都阻碍了有效的卫生沟通和疾病管理,突出需要具有文化敏感性的教育和赋权战略。对基于社区的单一保健方法实施情况进行了全面评估,以了解并确定传染病暴发中数据驱动的关键社区保健战略的优先顺序。利用疫情的宝贵经验教训和新兴技术有利于解决卫生社会决定因素、优化Mpox国际关注公共卫生组织实施的规划、能力努力、建立社区复原力和可持续解决方案,以及优先制定应对疫情/大流行威胁和负担的战略。结论:促进以证据为基础的社区卫生保健治理、领导和国内融资承诺是连接所有利益攸关方的关键引擎,可以优先考虑和优化前所未有的疫情威胁防范和应对举措的实施,并维护全球卫生安全回报。
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引用次数: 0
Biological characteristics and epidemiological insights into the zoonotic potential of Colpodella spp.: a scoping review. Colpodella spp人畜共患的生物学特性和流行病学见解:范围综述。
IF 5.5 1区 医学 Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-025-01361-1
Yilin Zhao, Zhanxin Cao, Shizhu Li, Chunhong Du, Jiafu Jiang

Background: Colpodella species are classified within the domain Eukaryota, specifically under the order Colpodellida, family Colpodellaceae, and genus Colpodella, which are close relative of the phylum Apicomplexa. These organisms are unicellular, predatory flagellates. In recent years, their frequent detection in animal tissues, vector insect samples, and particularly in human has garnered significant attention as an emerging zoonotic threat. This review is to scope the biological characteristics and epidemiological features of Colpodella species.

Methods: The PubMed, Web of Science, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were searched to identify studies in English or Chinese published before 4 February 2025. We searched for Colpodella-related nucleotide sequences released in the GenBank before 31 December, 2024. The literature and sequences were selected based on predefined inclusion criteria. We extracted the characteristics of Colpodella spp. from included articles and performed a phylogenetic analysis based on the included sequences.

Results: Thirty-seven records and 83 sequences were included in the study, respectively. Colpodella spp. currently comprise only two formally named species, alongside at least 11 species uncultured or unnamed in GenBank. Their life cycle includes trophozoite and cyst stages, with nutrient acquisition mediated by myzocytosis. These organisms display structural and protein similarities in their apical complexes to apicomplexan protozoa, yet with distinct differences. They are currently found in a wide range of hosts, including humans, livestock, pets, wildlife and vectors, across multiple continents, including Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Phylogenetic analyses reveal that Colpodella spp. exhibit significant genetic diversity and can be divided into seven clades, each characterized by distinct host ranges and regional distributions, and three clades posed pathogenic potential and significant risk of human infection.

Conclusions: This study systematically elucidates the broad host/vector range, genetic diversity and public health implications of Colpodella species based on comprehensive integrated genomic and epidemiological analyses. We recommend establishing active surveillance networks using clade-specific molecular markers for hosts and vectors in high-risk regions, incorporating Colpodella screening into routine diagnostics for fever cases of unknown origin with anaemia, prioritizing studies on isolation and cultivation, biological characteristics, and clade-specific in vitro invasion assays to elucidate the pathogenic mechanisms.

背景:colpodelella属真核生物,属于colpodelida目、colpodelaceae科和colpodelella属,是顶复合体门的近亲。这些生物是单细胞的掠食性鞭毛虫。近年来,它们在动物组织、病媒昆虫样本中,特别是在人类中经常被发现,作为一种新兴的人畜共患威胁,引起了极大的关注。本文综述了Colpodella属植物的生物学特性和流行病学特征。方法:检索PubMed、Web of Science和中国国家知识基础设施数据库,确定2025年2月4日之前发表的英文或中文研究。我们检索了2024年12月31日前在GenBank中发布的colpodella相关核苷酸序列。根据预先设定的纳入标准选择文献和序列。我们从纳入的文献中提取了Colpodella spp.的特征,并根据纳入的序列进行了系统发育分析。结果:共纳入37条记录和83条序列。Colpodella sp .目前只有两个正式命名的物种,在基因库中至少有11个未培养或未命名的物种。它们的生命周期包括滋养体和囊状体阶段,营养物质的获取由myzocyte介导。这些生物的顶复合体在结构和蛋白质上与顶复合体原生动物相似,但又有明显的差异。它们目前存在于广泛的宿主中,包括人类、牲畜、宠物、野生动物和病媒,分布在多个大洲,包括欧洲、亚洲、非洲和美洲。系统发育分析表明,Colpodella sp .具有显著的遗传多样性,可分为7个支系,每个支系具有不同的寄主范围和区域分布,其中3个支系具有致病性和显著的人类感染风险。结论:基于基因组学和流行病学的综合分析,本研究系统地阐明了Colpodella物种广泛的宿主/媒介范围、遗传多样性和公共卫生意义。我们建议在高风险地区建立主动监测网络,使用分支特异性分子标记对宿主和媒介进行监测,将colpoella筛查纳入未知来源的发热伴贫血病例的常规诊断,优先研究分离培养、生物学特性和分支特异性体外侵袭试验,以阐明致病机制。
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Infectious Diseases of Poverty
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