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Crafting 10 Years of Statistics Explanations: Points of Significance 撰写 10 年统计解释:意义点
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034555
Naomi Altman, Martin Krzywinski
Points of Significance is an ongoing series of short articles about statistics in Nature Methods that started in 2013. Its aim is to provide clear explanations of essential concepts in statistics for a nonspecialist audience. The articles favor heuristic explanations and make extensive use of simulated examples and graphical explanations, while maintaining mathematical rigor. Topics range from basic, but often misunderstood, such as uncertainty and p-values, to relatively advanced, but often neglected, such as the error-in-variables problem and the curse of dimensionality. More recent articles have focused on timely topics such as modeling of epidemics, machine learning, and neural networks. In this article, we discuss the evolution of topics and details behind some of the story arcs, our approach to crafting statistical explanations and narratives, and our use of figures and numerical simulations as props for building understanding.
意义之点》是《自然-方法》(Nature Methods)杂志从 2013 年开始持续推出的统计学短文系列。其目的是为非专业读者提供统计学基本概念的清晰解释。这些文章倾向于启发式解释,并广泛使用模拟示例和图表说明,同时保持数学的严谨性。主题范围从基本但经常被误解的内容,如不确定性和 p 值,到相对高级但经常被忽视的内容,如变量误差问题和维度诅咒。最近的文章主要关注流行病建模、机器学习和神经网络等适时的主题。在本文中,我们将讨论一些故事弧线背后的主题和细节的演变、我们制作统计解释和叙述的方法,以及我们使用数字和数值模拟作为建立理解的道具。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical Data Integration for Health Policy Evidence-Building 卫生政策证据建设的统计数据整合
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034507
Susan M. Paddock, Carolina Franco, F. Jay Breidt, Brenda Betancourt
Health policy evidence-building requires data sources such as health care claims, electronic health records, probability and nonprobability survey data, epidemiological surveillance databases, administrative data, and more, all of which have strengths and limitations for a given policy analysis. Data integration techniques leverage the relative strengths of input sources to obtain a blended source that is richer, more informative, and more fit for use than any single input component. This review notes the expansion of opportunities to use data integration for health policy analyses, reviews key methodological approaches to expand the number of variables in a data set or to increase the precision of estimates, and provides directions for future research. As data quality improvement motivates data integration, key data quality frameworks are provided to structure assessments of candidate input data sources.
卫生政策证据的建立需要数据源,如医疗索赔、电子健康记录、概率和非概率调查数据、流行病学监测数据库、行政管理数据等,所有这些数据对于特定的政策分析都有优势和局限性。数据整合技术可利用输入源的相对优势,获得比任何单一输入组件更丰富、更翔实、更适合使用的混合源。本综述注意到在卫生政策分析中使用数据整合的机会不断扩大,回顾了扩大数据集中变量数量或提高估算精度的主要方法,并为未来研究提供了方向。由于提高数据质量是数据整合的动力,因此提供了关键的数据质量框架,以构建对候选输入数据源的评估。
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引用次数: 0
Convergence Diagnostics for Entity Resolution 实体解析的会聚诊断
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040522-114848
Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Rebecca C. Steorts
Entity resolution is the process of merging and removing duplicate records from multiple data sources, often in the absence of unique identifiers. Bayesian models for entity resolution allow one to include a priori information, quantify uncertainty in important applications, and directly estimate a partition of the records. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is the primary computational method for approximate posterior inference in this setting, but due to the high dimensionality of the space of partitions, there are no agreed upon standards for diagnosing nonconvergence of MCMC sampling. In this article, we review Bayesian entity resolution, with a focus on the specific challenges that it poses for the convergence of a Markov chain. We review prior methods for convergence diagnostics, discussing their weaknesses. We provide recommendations for using MCMC sampling for Bayesian entity resolution, focusing on the use of modern diagnostics that are commonplace in applied Bayesian statistics. Using simulated data, we find that a commonly used Gibbs sampler performs poorly compared with two alternatives.
实体解析是合并和删除来自多个数据源的重复记录的过程,通常缺乏唯一标识符。实体解析的贝叶斯模型允许我们在重要应用中包含先验信息、量化不确定性,并直接估计记录的分区。马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)采样是在这种情况下进行近似后验推断的主要计算方法,但由于分区空间的维度很高,目前还没有公认的标准来诊断 MCMC 采样的不收敛性。在本文中,我们将回顾贝叶斯实体解析,重点讨论它对马尔可夫链收敛性提出的具体挑战。我们回顾了先前的收敛性诊断方法,讨论了它们的弱点。我们为使用 MCMC 采样进行贝叶斯实体解析提供了建议,重点是使用应用贝叶斯统计中常见的现代诊断方法。通过模拟数据,我们发现常用的 Gibbs 采样器与两种替代方法相比表现不佳。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of the Bayes Factor in the Evaluation of Evidence 贝叶斯因子在证据评估中的作用
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040522-101020
Colin Aitken, Franco Taroni, Silvia Bozza
The use of the Bayes factor as a metric for the assessment of the probative value of forensic scientific evidence is largely supported by recommended standards in different disciplines. The application of Bayesian networks enables the consideration of problems of increasing complexity. The lack of a widespread consensus concerning key aspects of evidence evaluation and interpretation, such as the adequacy of a probabilistic framework for handling uncertainty or the method by which conclusions regarding how the strength of the evidence should be reported to a court, has meant the role of the Bayes factor in the administration of criminal justice has come under increasing challenge in recent years. We review the many advantages the Bayes factor has as an approach to the evaluation and interpretation of evidence.
使用贝叶斯系数作为评估法医科学证据证明价值的指标在很大程度上得到了不同学科推荐标准的支持。贝叶斯网络的应用使人们能够考虑日益复杂的问题。由于在证据评估和解释的关键方面缺乏广泛共识,例如处理不确定性的概率框架是否充分,或应采用何种方法向法庭报告有关证据强度的结论,这意味着贝叶斯因子在刑事司法中的作用近年来受到越来越多的挑战。我们回顾了贝叶斯系数作为一种评估和解释证据的方法所具有的诸多优势。
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引用次数: 0
Recent Advances in Text Analysis 文本分析的最新进展
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040522-022138
Zheng Tracy Ke, Pengsheng Ji, Jiashun Jin, Wanshan Li
Text analysis is an interesting research area in data science and has various applications, such as in artificial intelligence, biomedical research, and engineering. We review popular methods for text analysis, ranging from topic modeling to the recent neural language models. In particular, we review Topic-SCORE, a statistical approach to topic modeling, and discuss how to use it to analyze the Multi-Attribute Data Set on Statisticians (MADStat), a data set on statistical publications that we collected and cleaned. The application of Topic-SCORE and other methods to MADStat leads to interesting findings. For example, we identified 11 representative topics in statistics. For each journal, the evolution of topic weights over time can be visualized, and these results are used to analyze the trends in statistical research. In particular, we propose a new statistical model for ranking the citation impacts of 11 topics, and we also build a cross-topic citation graph to illustrate how research results on different topics spread to one another. The results on MADStat provide a data-driven picture of the statistical research from 1975 to 2015, from a text analysis perspective.Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 11 is March 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
文本分析是数据科学中一个有趣的研究领域,有各种各样的应用,比如人工智能、生物医学研究和工程。我们回顾了流行的文本分析方法,从主题建模到最近的神经语言模型。特别地,我们回顾了topic - score,这是一种主题建模的统计方法,并讨论了如何使用它来分析统计学家的多属性数据集(MADStat),这是我们收集和清理的统计出版物的数据集。将Topic-SCORE和其他方法应用于MADStat得到了有趣的发现。例如,我们确定了统计学中的11个代表性主题。对于每个期刊,主题权重随时间的演变可以可视化,这些结果用于分析统计研究的趋势。特别地,我们提出了一个新的统计模型来对11个主题的引用影响进行排序,并构建了一个跨主题引用图来说明不同主题的研究成果如何相互传播。MADStat上的结果从文本分析的角度提供了1975年至2015年统计研究的数据驱动图片。预计《统计年鉴及其应用》第11卷的最终在线出版日期为2024年3月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Manifold Learning: What, How, and Why 多元学习:什么,如何,为什么
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040522-115238
Marina Meilă, Hanyu Zhang
Manifold learning (ML), also known as nonlinear dimension reduction, is a set of methods to find the low-dimensional structure of data. Dimension reduction for large, high-dimensional data is not merely a way to reduce the data; the new representations and descriptors obtained by ML reveal the geometric shape of high-dimensional point clouds and allow one to visualize, denoise, and interpret them. This review presents the underlying principles of ML, its representative methods, and their statistical foundations, all from a practicing statistician's perspective. It describes the trade-offs and what theory tells us about the parameter and algorithmic choices we make in order to obtain reliable conclusions.Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 11 is March 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
流形学习(Manifold learning, ML),也称为非线性降维,是一组寻找数据低维结构的方法。大型、高维数据的降维不仅仅是一种数据降维的方法;机器学习获得的新表示和描述符揭示了高维点云的几何形状,并允许人们对它们进行可视化、去噪和解释。这篇综述介绍了机器学习的基本原理,它的代表性方法,以及它们的统计基础,所有这些都是从一个实践统计学家的角度出发的。它描述了权衡,以及理论告诉我们为了获得可靠的结论而做出的参数和算法选择。预计《统计年鉴及其应用》第11卷的最终在线出版日期为2024年3月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Communication of Statistics and Evidence in Times of Crisis 危机时期的统计和证据传播
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040722-052011
Claudia R. Schneider, John R. Kerr, Sarah Dryhurst, John A.D. Aston
This review provides an overview of concepts relating to the communication of statistical and empirical evidence in times of crisis, with a special focus on COVID-19. In it, we consider topics relating to both the communication of numbers, such as the role of format, context, comparisons, and visualization, and the communication of evidence more broadly, such as evidence quality, the influence of changes in available evidence, transparency, and repeated decision-making. A central focus is on the communication of the inherent uncertainties in statistical analysis, especially in rapidly changing informational environments during crises. We present relevant literature on these topics and draw connections to the communication of statistics and empirical evidence during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. We finish by suggesting some considerations for those faced with communicating statistics and evidence in times of crisis.Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 11 is March 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
本综述概述了与危机时期统计和经验证据传播相关的概念,特别关注2019冠状病毒病。在其中,我们考虑了与数字交流相关的主题,如格式、背景、比较和可视化的作用,以及更广泛的证据交流,如证据质量、现有证据变化的影响、透明度和重复决策。中心的重点是传播统计分析中固有的不确定性,特别是在危机期间迅速变化的信息环境中。我们介绍了有关这些主题的相关文献,并将其与COVID-19大流行期间和之后的统计数据和经验证据交流联系起来。最后,我们为那些在危机时期面临统计数据和证据沟通的人提出了一些考虑。预计《统计年鉴及其应用》第11卷的最终在线出版日期为2024年3月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Maps: A Statistical View 地图:统计视图
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-032921-040851
Lance A. Waller
Maps provide a data framework for the statistical analysis of georeferenced data observations. Since the middle of the twentieth century, the field of spatial statistics has evolved to address key inferential questions relating to spatially defined data, yet many central statistical properties do not translate to spatially indexed and spatially correlated data, and the development of statistical inference for mapped data remains an active area of research. Rather than review statistical techniques, we review the different ways the maps of georeferenced data can influence statistical analysis, focusing especially on maps as data visualization, maps as data structures, and maps as statistics themselves, i.e., summaries of underlying patterns with accompanying uncertainty. The categories provide connections to disparate literatures addressing spatial analysis including data visualization, cartography, spatial statistics, and geography. We find maps integrate spatial analysis from motivating questions, informing analytic methods, and providing context for results.Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 11 is March 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
地图为地理参考数据观测的统计分析提供了一个数据框架。自20世纪中叶以来,空间统计领域已经发展到解决与空间定义数据相关的关键推理问题,但许多中心统计属性并没有转化为空间索引和空间相关数据,并且对映射数据的统计推断的发展仍然是一个活跃的研究领域。我们不是回顾统计技术,而是回顾地理参考数据的地图可以影响统计分析的不同方式,特别关注作为数据可视化的地图、作为数据结构的地图和作为统计本身的地图,即对伴随不确定性的潜在模式的总结。这些分类提供了与不同文献的连接,涉及空间分析,包括数据可视化、制图、空间统计和地理。我们发现地图整合了空间分析,从激发问题,通知分析方法,并为结果提供背景。预计《统计年鉴及其应用》第11卷的最终在线出版日期为2024年3月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical Brain Network Analysis 统计脑网络分析
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040522-020722
Sean L. Simpson, Heather M. Shappell, Mohsen Bahrami
The recent fusion of network science and neuroscience has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how we study the brain and led to the field of brain network analysis. Brain network analyses hold great potential in helping us understand normal and abnormal brain function by providing profound clinical insight into links between system-level properties and health and behavioral outcomes. Nonetheless, methods for statistically analyzing networks at the group and individual levels have lagged behind. We have attempted to address this need by developing three complementary statistical frameworks—a mixed modeling framework, a distance regression framework, and a hidden semi-Markov modeling framework. These tools serve as synergistic fusions of statistical approaches with network science methods, providing needed analytic foundations for whole-brain network data. Here we delineate these approaches, briefly survey related tools, and discuss potential future avenues of research. We hope this review catalyzes further statistical interest and methodological development in the field.Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 11 is March 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
最近网络科学和神经科学的融合促进了我们如何研究大脑的范式转变,并导致了大脑网络分析领域的发展。通过对系统级属性与健康和行为结果之间的联系提供深刻的临床见解,脑网络分析在帮助我们理解正常和异常的脑功能方面具有巨大的潜力。尽管如此,对群体和个人层面的网络进行统计分析的方法仍然落后。我们试图通过开发三个互补的统计框架来解决这一需求——一个混合建模框架,一个距离回归框架和一个隐藏的半马尔科夫建模框架。这些工具作为统计方法与网络科学方法的协同融合,为全脑网络数据提供了所需的分析基础。在这里,我们概述了这些方法,简要调查了相关工具,并讨论了潜在的未来研究途径。我们希望这篇综述能催化该领域进一步的统计兴趣和方法发展。预计《统计年鉴及其应用》第11卷的最终在线出版日期为2024年3月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Relational Event Modeling 关系事件建模
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040722-060248
Federica Bianchi, Edoardo Filippi-Mazzola, Alessandro Lomi, Ernst C. Wit
Advances in information technology have increased the availability of time-stamped relational data, such as those produced by email exchanges or interaction through social media. Whereas the associated information flows could be aggregated into cross-sectional panels, the temporal ordering of the events frequently contains information that requires new models for the analysis of continuous-time interactions, subject to both endogenous and exogenous influences. The introduction of the relational event model (REM) has been a major development that has stimulated new questions and led to further methodological developments. In this review, we track the intellectual history of the REM, define its core properties, and discuss why and how it has been considered useful in empirical research. We describe how the demands of novel applications have stimulated methodological, computational, and inferential advancements.Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 11 is March 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
信息技术的进步增加了时间戳关系数据的可用性,例如通过电子邮件交换或通过社交媒体互动产生的数据。虽然相关的信息流可以汇总成横截面面板,但事件的时间顺序往往包含需要新的模型来分析受内生和外生影响的连续时间相互作用的信息。关系事件模型(REM)的引入是一项重大发展,它激发了新的问题,并导致了进一步的方法论发展。在这篇综述中,我们追溯了快速眼动的思想史,定义了它的核心属性,并讨论了它为什么以及如何在实证研究中被认为是有用的。我们描述了新应用的需求如何刺激了方法、计算和推理的进步。预计《统计年鉴及其应用》第11卷的最终在线出版日期为2024年3月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
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Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application
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