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Designs for Vaccine Studies 疫苗研究设计
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-033121-120121
M. Elizabeth Halloran
Due to dependent happenings, vaccines can have different effects in populations. In addition to direct protective effects in the vaccinated, vaccination in a population can have indirect effects in the unvaccinated individuals. Vaccination can also reduce person-to-person transmission to vaccinated individuals or from vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals. Design of vaccine studies has a history extending back over a century. Emerging infectious diseases, such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, have stimulated new interest in vaccine studies. We focus on some recent developments, such as target trial emulation, test-negative design, and regression discontinuity design. Methods for evaluating durability of vaccine effects were developed in the context of both blinded and unblinded placebo crossover studies. The case-ascertained design is used to assess the transmission effects of vaccines. The novel ring vaccination trial design was first used in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
由于存在依赖性,疫苗会对人群产生不同的影响。除了对接种者产生直接保护作用外,在人群中接种疫苗也会对未接种者产生间接影响。与未接种疫苗的人相比,接种疫苗还能减少接种疫苗的人与人之间或接种疫苗的人与未接种疫苗的人之间的传播。疫苗研究设计的历史可追溯到一个多世纪以前。新出现的传染病,如 SARS-CoV-2 大流行和西非埃博拉疫情,激发了人们对疫苗研究的新兴趣。我们重点讨论了最近的一些发展,如目标试验模拟、阴性试验设计和回归不连续设计。在盲法和非盲法安慰剂交叉研究中开发了评估疫苗效果持久性的方法。病例确定设计用于评估疫苗的传播效果。新型环形疫苗接种试验设计首次用于西非埃博拉疫情。
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引用次数: 0
A Statistical Viewpoint on Differential Privacy: Hypothesis Testing, Representation, and Blackwell's Theorem 关于差异隐私的统计学观点:假设检验、表征和布莱克韦尔定理
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034158
Weijie J. Su
Differential privacy is widely considered the formal privacy for privacy-preserving data analysis due to its robust and rigorous guarantees, with increasingly broad adoption in public services, academia, and industry. Although differential privacy originated in the cryptographic context, in this review we argue that, fundamentally, it can be considered a pure statistical concept. We leverage Blackwell's informativeness theorem and focus on demonstrating that the definition of differential privacy can be formally motivated from a hypothesis testing perspective, thereby showing that hypothesis testing is not merely convenient but also the right language for reasoning about differential privacy. This insight leads to the definition of f-differential privacy, which extends other differential privacy definitions through a representation theorem. We review techniques that render f-differential privacy a unified framework for analyzing privacy bounds in data analysis and machine learning. Applications of this differential privacy definition to private deep learning, private convex optimization, shuffled mechanisms, and US Census data are discussed to highlight the benefits of analyzing privacy bounds under this framework compared with existing alternatives.
差分隐私因其稳健而严格的保证,被广泛认为是隐私保护数据分析的正式隐私,在公共服务、学术界和工业界得到越来越广泛的应用。虽然差分隐私起源于密码学,但在本综述中,我们认为从根本上讲,它可以被视为一个纯粹的统计学概念。我们利用布莱克韦尔(Blackwell)的信息性定理,重点论证了差分隐私的定义可以从假设检验的角度正式提出,从而表明假设检验不仅方便,而且是推理差分隐私的正确语言。这一见解引出了 f 差分隐私的定义,它通过表示定理扩展了其他差分隐私定义。我们回顾了一些技术,这些技术使 f 差分隐私成为分析数据分析和机器学习中隐私边界的统一框架。我们讨论了这种差分隐私定义在私有深度学习、私有凸优化、洗牌机制和美国人口普查数据中的应用,以突出与现有替代方法相比,在此框架下分析隐私边界的优势。
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引用次数: 0
Reproducibility in the Classroom 课堂上的可重复性
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034436
Mine Dogucu
Difficulties in reproducing results from scientific studies have lately been referred to as a reproducibility crisis. Scientific practice depends heavily on scientific training. What gets taught in the classroom is often practiced in labs, fields, and data analysis. The importance of reproducibility in the classroom has gained momentum in statistics education in recent years. In this article, we review the existing literature on reproducibility education. We delve into the relationship between computing tools and reproducibility through visiting historical developments in this area. We share examples for teaching reproducibility and reproducible teaching while discussing the pedagogical opportunities created by these examples as well as challenges that the instructors should be aware of. We detail the use of teaching reproducibility and reproducible teaching practices in an introductory data science course. Lastly, we provide recommendations on reproducibility education for instructors, administrators, and other members of the scientific community.
科学研究结果难以再现最近被称为再现性危机。科学实践在很大程度上依赖于科学培训。课堂上教授的内容往往要在实验室、现场和数据分析中实践。近年来,可重复性在课堂教学中的重要性在统计教育中日益凸显。在本文中,我们回顾了有关可重复性教育的现有文献。我们通过访问该领域的历史发展,深入探讨了计算工具与再现性之间的关系。我们分享了可重复性教学和可重复性教学的实例,同时讨论了这些实例所创造的教学机会以及教师应注意的挑战。我们详细介绍了在数据科学入门课程中使用可重现性教学和可重现性教学实践的情况。最后,我们为教师、管理人员和科学界的其他成员提供了关于可重复性教育的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Generalized Additive Models 广义加法模型
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034249
Simon N. Wood
Generalized additive models are generalized linear models in which the linear predictor includes a sum of smooth functions of covariates, where the shape of the functions is to be estimated. They have also been generalized beyond the original generalized linear model setting to distributions outside the exponential family and to situations in which multiple parameters of the response distribution may depend on sums of smooth functions of covariates. The widely used computational and inferential framework in which the smooth terms are represented as latent Gaussian processes, splines, or Gaussian random effects is reviewed, paying particular attention to the case in which computational and theoretical tractability is obtained by prior rank reduction of the model terms. An empirical Bayes approach is taken, and its relatively good frequentist performance discussed, along with some more overtly frequentist approaches to model selection. Estimation of the degree of smoothness of component functions via cross validation or marginal likelihood is covered, alongside the computational strategies required in practice, including when data and models are reasonably large. It is briefly shown how the framework extends easily to location-scale modeling, and, with more effort, to techniques such as quantile regression. Also covered are the main classes of smooths of multiple covariates that may be included in models: isotropic splines and tensor product smooth interaction terms.
广义加法模型是一种广义线性模型,在这种模型中,线性预测因子包括协变量的平滑函数之和,而函数的形状是需要估计的。广义加法模型已经超越了最初的广义线性模型,被应用于指数族以外的分布,以及响应分布的多个参数可能取决于协变量平滑函数之和的情况。本文回顾了广泛使用的计算和推理框架,其中平滑项被表示为潜在的高斯过程、样条或高斯随机效应,并特别关注了通过模型项的先验秩缩减获得计算和理论可操作性的情况。文章采用了经验贝叶斯方法,并讨论了其相对较好的频繁主义性能,以及一些更明显的频繁主义模型选择方法。通过交叉验证或边际似然法估计成分函数的平滑度,以及在实践中所需的计算策略,包括当数据和模型相当大时的计算策略,都有所涉及。简要说明了如何将该框架轻松扩展到位置尺度建模,以及如何通过更多努力扩展到量化回归等技术。此外,还介绍了模型中可能包含的多变量平滑的主要类别:各向同性样条和张量乘积平滑交互项。
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引用次数: 0
Statistics in Phonetics 语音学统计
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034642
Shahin Tavakoli, Beatrice Matteo, Davide Pigoli, Eleanor Chodroff, John Coleman, Michele Gubian, Margaret E.L. Renwick, Morgan Sonderegger
Phonetics is the scientific field concerned with the study of how speech is produced, heard, and perceived. It abounds with data, such as acoustic speech recordings, neuroimaging data, or articulatory data. In this article, we provide an introduction to different areas of phonetics (acoustic phonetics, sociophonetics, speech perception, articulatory phonetics, speech inversion, sound change, and speech technology), an overview of the statistical methods for analyzing their data, and an introduction to the signal processing methods commonly applied to speech recordings. A major transition in the statistical modeling of phonetic data has been the shift from fixed effects to random effects regression models, the modeling of curve data (for instance, via generalized additive mixed models or functional data analysis methods), and the use of Bayesian methods. This shift has been driven in part by the increased focus on large speech corpora in phonetics, which has arisen from machine learning methods such as forced alignment. We conclude by identifying opportunities for future research.
语音学是研究语音如何产生、被听到和被感知的科学领域。语音学拥有大量数据,如语音声学录音、神经影像学数据或发音数据。在本文中,我们将介绍语音学的不同领域(声学语音学、社会语音学、语音感知、发音语音学、语音反转、声音变化和语音技术),概述分析这些数据的统计方法,并介绍通常应用于语音录音的信号处理方法。语音数据统计建模的一个主要转变是从固定效应回归模型转向随机效应回归模型、曲线数据建模(例如,通过广义相加混合模型或函数数据分析方法)以及贝叶斯方法的使用。这种转变的部分原因是语音学越来越重视大型语音语料库,而语音语料库是由强制对齐等机器学习方法产生的。最后,我们确定了未来研究的机遇。
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引用次数: 0
Hawkes Models and Their Applications 霍克斯模型及其应用
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034304
Patrick J. Laub, Young Lee, Philip K. Pollett, Thomas Taimre
The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system that exhibits the self-exciting property—that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model and its generalizations have been applied in a plethora of disparate domains, though two particularly developed applications are in seismology and in finance. As the original model is elegantly simple, generalizations have been proposed that track marks for each arrival, are multivariate, have a spatial component, are driven by renewal processes, treat time as discrete, and so on. This article creates a cohesive review of the traditional Hawkes model and the modern generalizations, providing details on their construction and simulation algorithms, and giving key references to the appropriate literature for a detailed treatment.
霍克斯过程是一种计算系统到达次数的模型,该系统具有自激特性--一次到达会增加在不久的将来再次到达的机会。该模型及其广义模型已被应用于大量不同领域,但其中两个特别发达的应用领域是地震学和金融学。由于最初的模型非常简单,因此有人提出了一些概括,如跟踪每次到达的标记、多变量、具有空间成分、由更新过程驱动、将时间视为离散等。本文对传统霍克斯模型和现代广义模型进行了全面评述,详细介绍了它们的构造和模拟算法,并提供了相关文献的主要参考文献,以便读者进行详细了解。
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引用次数: 0
Identification and Inference with Invalid Instruments 无效工具的识别和推断
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034721
Hyunseung Kang, Zijian Guo, Zhonghua Liu, Dylan Small
Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to study the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IVs require an instrument, a variable that (a) is associated with the exposure, (b) has no direct effect on the outcome except through the exposure, and (c) is not related to unmeasured confounders. Unfortunately, finding variables that satisfy conditions b or c can be challenging in practice. This article reviews works where instruments may not satisfy conditions b or c, which we refer to as invalid instruments. We review identification and inference under different violations of b or c, specifically under linear models, nonlinear models, and heteroskedastic models. We conclude with an empirical comparison of various methods by reanalyzing the effect of body mass index on systolic blood pressure from the UK Biobank.
工具变量(IVs)被广泛用于研究在存在未测量混杂因素的情况下暴露对结果的因果效应。工具变量需要一个工具,一个(a)与暴露相关的变量,(b)除了通过暴露对结果没有直接影响的变量,以及(c)与未测量混杂因素无关的变量。遗憾的是,要找到满足条件 b 或 c 的变量在实践中可能很困难。本文回顾了工具可能不满足条件 b 或 c 的研究,我们称之为无效工具。我们回顾了不同的 b 或 c 条件下的识别和推断,特别是线性模型、非线性模型和异方差模型。最后,我们通过重新分析英国生物库中体重指数对收缩压的影响,对各种方法进行了实证比较。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the Functioning Human Brain 测量功能正常的人脑
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040522-100329
Martin A. Lindquist, Bonnie B. Smith, Arunkumar Kannan, Angela Zhao, Brian Caffo
The emergence of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) marked a significant technological breakthrough in the real-time measurement of the functioning human brain in vivo. In part because of their 4D nature (three spatial dimensions and time), fMRI data have inspired a great deal of statistical development in the past couple of decades to address their unique spatiotemporal properties. This article provides an overview of the current landscape in functional brain measurement, with a particular focus on fMRI, highlighting key developments in the past decade. Furthermore, it looks ahead to the future, discussing unresolved research questions in the community and outlining potential research topics for the future.
功能磁共振成像(fMRI)的出现标志着实时测量活体人脑功能的重大技术突破。部分由于其 4D 性质(三个空间维度和时间),fMRI 数据在过去几十年中激发了大量统计发展,以解决其独特的时空特性问题。本文概述了大脑功能测量的现状,尤其侧重于 fMRI,并重点介绍了过去十年的主要发展。此外,文章还展望了未来,讨论了业界尚未解决的研究问题,并概述了未来潜在的研究课题。
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引用次数: 0
High-Dimensional Gene–Environment Interaction Analysis 高维基因与环境相互作用分析
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034315
Mengyun Wu, Yingmeng Li, Shuangge Ma
Beyond the main genetic and environmental effects, gene–environment (G–E) interactions have been demonstrated to significantly contribute to the development and progression of complex diseases. Published analyses of G–E interactions have primarily used a supervised framework to model both low-dimensional environmental factors and high-dimensional genetic factors in relation to disease outcomes. In this article, we aim to provide a selective review of methodological developments in G–E interaction analysis from a statistical perspective. The three main families of techniques are hypothesis testing, variable selection, and dimension reduction, which lead to three general frameworks: testing-based, estimation-based, and prediction-based. Linear- and nonlinear-effects analysis, fixed- and random-effects analysis, marginal and joint analysis, and Bayesian and frequentist analysis are reviewed to facilitate the conduct of interaction analysis in a wide range of situations with various assumptions and objectives. Statistical properties, computations, applications, and future directions are also discussed.
除了主要的遗传和环境影响外,基因-环境(G-E)相互作用已被证明对复杂疾病的发生和发展有重要作用。已发表的 G-E 相互作用分析主要采用监督框架,对与疾病结果相关的低维环境因素和高维遗传因素进行建模。在本文中,我们旨在从统计学的角度对 G-E 相互作用分析方法的发展进行选择性回顾。假设检验、变量选择和降维是三大主要技术系列,由此产生了三种通用框架:基于检验的、基于估计的和基于预测的。本书回顾了线性效应和非线性效应分析、固定效应和随机效应分析、边际分析和联合分析、贝叶斯分析和频数分析,以便在各种情况下根据不同的假设和目标进行交互作用分析。此外,还讨论了统计特性、计算、应用和未来发展方向。
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引用次数: 0
A Theoretical Review of Modern Robust Statistics 现代稳健统计的理论回顾
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034446
Po-Ling Loh
Robust statistics is a fairly mature field that dates back to the early 1960s, with many foundational concepts having been developed in the ensuing decades. However, the field has drawn a new surge of attention in the past decade, largely due to a desire to recast robust statistical principles in the context of high-dimensional statistics. In this article, we begin by reviewing some of the central ideas in classical robust statistics. We then discuss the need for new theory in high dimensions, using recent work in high-dimensional M-estimation as an illustrative example. Next, we highlight a variety of interesting recent topics that have drawn a flurry of research activity from both statisticians and theoretical computer scientists, demonstrating the need for further research in robust estimation that embraces new estimation and contamination settings, as well as a greater emphasis on computational tractability in high dimensions.
稳健统计是一个相当成熟的领域,可追溯到 20 世纪 60 年代初,许多基础概念是在随后的几十年中发展起来的。然而,在过去的十年中,该领域吸引了新一轮的关注,这主要是由于人们希望在高维统计的背景下重塑稳健统计原理。在本文中,我们首先回顾了经典稳健统计的一些核心思想。然后,我们以最近在高维 M 估计方面的研究为例,讨论了在高维领域对新理论的需求。接下来,我们将重点介绍近期吸引了统计学家和理论计算机科学家的大量研究活动的各种有趣课题,这表明我们需要进一步研究稳健估计,包括新的估计和污染设置,以及更加重视高维度的计算可操作性。
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引用次数: 0
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Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application
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