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Deep Spatiotemporal Point Processes: Advances and New Directions 深度时空点过程:进展与新方向
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042324-040052
Xiuyuan Cheng, Zheng Dong, Yao Xie
Spatiotemporal point processes model discrete events distributed in space and time, with applications in criminology, seismology, epidemiology, and social networks. Classical models rely on parametric kernels, limiting their ability to capture heterogeneous, nonstationary dynamics. Recent advances integrate deep neural architectures, either by modeling the conditional intensity directly or by learning flexible, data-driven influence kernels. This article reviews the deep influence kernel approach, which balances statistical interpretability by retaining explicit kernels to capture event propagation, with expressive power from neural architectures. We outline key components, including functional basis decomposition, graph neural networks for encoding spatial or network structures, and both likelihood-based and likelihood-free estimation methods, while addressing scalability for large data. We also highlight theoretical results on kernel identifiability. Applications in crime analysis, earthquake aftershock prediction, and sepsis modeling demonstrate the framework's effectiveness. We conclude with promising directions for developing explainable and scalable deep kernel point processes.
时空点过程模型离散事件分布在空间和时间,与应用在犯罪学,地震学,流行病学和社会网络。经典模型依赖于参数核,限制了它们捕捉异质、非平稳动态的能力。最近的进展集成了深度神经架构,要么直接对条件强度建模,要么通过学习灵活的、数据驱动的影响核。本文回顾了深度影响核方法,该方法通过保留显式核来捕获事件传播来平衡统计可解释性,并具有神经结构的表达能力。我们概述了关键组件,包括功能基分解,用于编码空间或网络结构的图神经网络,以及基于似然和无似然的估计方法,同时解决了大数据的可扩展性。我们还强调了核可辨识性的理论结果。在犯罪分析、地震余震预测和脓毒症建模中的应用证明了该框架的有效性。我们总结了开发可解释和可扩展的深度核点过程的有希望的方向。
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引用次数: 0
The Why and How of Convex Clustering 凸聚类的原因和方法
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034107
Eric C. Chi, Aaron J. Molstad, Zheming Gao, Jocelyn T. Chi
This article reviews a clustering method based on solving a convex optimization problem. Despite the plethora of existing clustering methods, convex clustering has several uncommon features that distinguish it from its predecessors. The optimization problem is free of spurious local minima, and its unique global minimizer is stable with respect to all its inputs, including the data, a tuning parameter, and weight hyperparameters. Its single tuning parameter controls the number of clusters and can be chosen using standard techniques from penalized regression. We give intuition into the behavior of and theory for convex clustering, as well as practical guidance. We highlight important algorithms and discuss how their computational costs scale with the problem size. Finally, we highlight the breadth of its uses and flexibility to be combined and integrated with other inferential methods.
本文综述了一种基于求解凸优化问题的聚类方法。尽管现有的聚类方法太多,但凸聚类有几个不常见的特征,使其与以前的聚类方法区别开来。该优化问题不存在虚假的局部最小值,其唯一的全局最小值对于所有输入(包括数据、调优参数和权超参数)都是稳定的。它的单个调优参数控制簇的数量,并且可以使用惩罚回归的标准技术进行选择。给出了凸聚类的行为和理论,并给出了实践指导。我们强调了重要的算法,并讨论了它们的计算成本如何随问题规模的变化而变化。最后,我们强调了其使用的广度和与其他推理方法相结合和集成的灵活性。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical Aspects of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities 种族和族裔健康差异的统计方面
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042324-061403
Jay S. Kaufman
Measurement and analysis of racial and ethnic health disparities are vital functions of government and academia in diverse societies, but the statistical methods for accomplishing this work are underdeveloped. Issues of measurement, aggregation, adjustment, choice of scale, internal validity, and generalizability are all paramount. Measurement of race and ethnicity is complicated by the fact that, as identities that form through historical and political processes, they are not stable over time and place, nor are they objectively verifiable. Similarly, it is impossible to specify an optimal adjustment set, because adjustments are functions of ethical judgments, not statistical criteria. Additional complications arise when decomposing disparities in relation to measured pathways, as well as in the modeling of multiple intersectional strata. The ethical considerations in model selection imply that measurement and modeling of health disparities can never be a purely statistical activity, but instead must be conducted in relation to a theory of justice.
衡量和分析种族和族裔健康差异是政府和学术界在不同社会中的重要职能,但完成这项工作的统计方法尚不发达。测量、汇总、调整、尺度选择、内部有效性和概括性等问题都是至关重要的。种族和民族的衡量是复杂的,因为作为通过历史和政治进程形成的身份,它们不随时间和地点而稳定,也不能客观地加以证实。同样,不可能指定一个最优调整集,因为调整是道德判断的功能,而不是统计标准。当分解与测量路径相关的差异时,以及在多个相交地层的建模中,会出现额外的复杂性。模型选择中的伦理考虑意味着,健康差异的测量和建模永远不可能是纯粹的统计活动,而必须与正义理论有关。
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引用次数: 0
Operator Learning: A Statistical Perspective 操作员学习:统计学视角
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-070908
Unique Subedi, Ambuj Tewari
Operator learning has emerged as a powerful tool in scientific computing for approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. A primary application of operator learning is the development of surrogate models for the solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs). These methods can also be used to develop black-box simulators to model system behavior from experimental data, even without a known mathematical model. In this article, we begin by formalizing operator learning as a function-to-function regression problem and review some recent developments in the field. We also discuss PDE-specific operator learning, outlining strategies for incorporating physical and mathematical constraints into architecture design and training processes. Finally, we end by highlighting key future directions such as active data collection and the development of rigorous uncertainty quantification frameworks.
在科学计算中,算子学习已成为逼近无限维函数空间之间映射的强大工具。算子学习的一个主要应用是开发偏微分方程(PDEs)解算子的代理模型。这些方法也可以用于开发黑箱模拟器,以模拟系统行为的实验数据,即使没有已知的数学模型。在本文中,我们首先将算子学习形式化为函数到函数的回归问题,并回顾该领域的一些最新发展。我们还讨论了pde特定的操作员学习,概述了将物理和数学约束纳入建筑设计和培训过程的策略。最后,我们强调了未来的关键方向,如积极的数据收集和严格的不确定性量化框架的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical Methods in Aging Research: Improving Current Practices and Embracing Emerging Approaches 老龄化研究中的统计方法:改进当前的实践和拥抱新兴的方法
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042324-060005
Deependra K. Thapa, Erik S. Parker, Mounika Kandukuri, Xi (Rita) Wang, Thirupathi R. Mokalla, Olivia C. Robertson, Wasiuddin Najam, Andrew E. Teschendorff, Andrew W. Brown, John R. Speakman, Yisheng Peng, Bernard S. Gorman, Heping Zhang, Luis-Enrique Becerra-Garcia, Colby J. Vorland, David B. Allison
Aging research relies on varied statistical methods, and applying these methods appropriately is important for scientific rigor. However, proper use of these statistical techniques is a challenge. We discuss two categories of statistical methods in aging research: ( a ) emerging methods requiring further validation, including techniques to examine compression of morbidity, maximum lifespan, immortal time bias, molecular aging clocks, and treatment response heterogeneity, and ( b ) classic and existing methods needing reconsideration and improvement, such as stepwise regression, generalized linear models, methods for accounting for clustering and nesting effects, methods for testing for group differences, methods for mediation and moderation analyses, and nonlinear models. For each method, we review its relevance to aging research, highlight statistical issues, and suggest improvements or alternatives with examples from aging research. We urge researchers to refine traditional approaches and embrace emerging methods tailored to the unique challenges of aging research. This review will help researchers identify and apply sound statistical methods, thereby improving statistical rigor in aging research.
老龄化研究依赖于各种统计方法,适当地应用这些方法对科学的严谨性很重要。然而,正确使用这些统计技术是一项挑战。我们讨论了老龄化研究中的两类统计方法:(a)需要进一步验证的新兴方法,包括检查发病率压缩、最长寿命、不朽时间偏差、分子老化时钟和治疗反应异质性的技术;(b)需要重新考虑和改进的经典和现有方法,如逐步回归、广义线性模型、说明聚类和嵌套效应的方法、检验群体差异的方法、调解和调节分析的方法;和非线性模型。对于每种方法,我们回顾了其与老龄化研究的相关性,突出统计问题,并通过老龄化研究中的例子提出改进或替代方案。我们敦促研究人员改进传统方法,并采用针对老龄化研究独特挑战的新兴方法。这篇综述将有助于研究人员识别和应用合理的统计方法,从而提高老龄研究的统计严谨性。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical Learning for Functional Data 功能数据的统计学习
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-052503
Jiguo Cao, Sidi Wu, Muye Nanshan, Haolun Shi, Liangliang Wang
Functional data analysis (FDA) is a rapidly growing field in modern statistics that provides powerful tools for analyzing data observed as curves, surfaces, or more general functions. Unlike traditional multivariate methods, FDA explicitly accounts for the smooth and continuous nature of functional data, enabling more accurate modeling and interpretation. Traditional FDA methods, such as functional principal component analysis, functional regression, and functional classification, rely on linear assumptions and basis function expansions, which can limit their effectiveness when applied to nonlinear, high-dimensional, or irregularly sampled data. Recent advances in neural networks provide promising alternatives to these traditional approaches. Deep learning methods offer several key advantages: They naturally capture nonlinear relationships, scale to high-dimensional data without explicit dimension reduction, learn task-specific representations directly from raw observations, and handle sparse or irregular sampling without requiring imputation. This article reviews recent methodological developments in FDA, with a focus on the integration of deep learning techniques. Through this comparative review, we highlight the strengths and limitations of classical and modern approaches, providing practical guidance and future directions.
功能数据分析(FDA)是现代统计学中一个快速发展的领域,它为分析观察到的曲线,曲面或更一般的函数的数据提供了强大的工具。与传统的多变量方法不同,FDA明确考虑了功能数据的平滑和连续性质,从而实现了更准确的建模和解释。传统的FDA方法,如功能主成分分析、功能回归和功能分类,依赖于线性假设和基函数展开,这限制了它们在应用于非线性、高维或不规则采样数据时的有效性。神经网络的最新进展为这些传统方法提供了有希望的替代方案。深度学习方法提供了几个关键优势:它们自然地捕获非线性关系,在没有显式降维的情况下扩展到高维数据,直接从原始观察中学习特定于任务的表示,以及处理稀疏或不规则采样而不需要输入。本文回顾了FDA最近的方法发展,重点是深度学习技术的整合。通过这一比较回顾,我们突出了经典和现代方法的优势和局限性,提供了实践指导和未来的方向。
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引用次数: 0
Proper Scoring Rules for Estimation and Forecast Evaluation 评估和预测评估的正确评分规则
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-050626
Kartik Waghmare, Johanna Ziegel
Proper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules, including general characterization results and important families of scoring rules. We discuss their role in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation. Furthermore, we comment on interesting developments of their usage in applications.
适当的评分规则是近年来人们越来越感兴趣的一个主题,它不仅是评估概率预测的工具,而且是估计概率分布的方法。在本文中,我们回顾了适当的评分规则的数学基础,包括一般表征结果和重要的评分规则族。我们讨论了它们在统计和机器学习中用于估计和预测评估的作用。此外,我们还评论了它们在应用程序中使用的有趣发展。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Designs for Correlated Data 关联数据的优化设计
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042324-012947
J. López-Fidalgo, W.K. Wong
Correlated data occur naturally and frequently in small and big data, and methods for analyzing correlated data have seen great advances in recent decades. Attention to design issues typically lags behind that paid to estimation issues, and it is also true that construction of optimal designs for models with correlated data lags that for models with uncorrelated data. A key problem in constructing optimal designs for models with correlated observations is that more technical assumptions are needed than when models have uncorrelated errors. In the former case, approximations to the information matrix are needed, and there are also no general and effective algorithms for finding various types of optimal designs. In addition, there are no tools to confirm optimality of a design. This article first gives a short review of optimal designs for linear models, before we focus on a review of finding optimal designs for models with correlated data. We discuss various approaches and their difficulties in a few selected areas. Along the way, we provide examples and recommend use of nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithms to find all kinds of optimal designs for any criterion or model with or without correlated data.
关联数据在小数据和大数据中自然而频繁地出现,近几十年来,相关数据的分析方法有了很大的进步。对设计问题的关注通常滞后于对估计问题的关注,对于具有相关数据的模型的最优设计的构建也滞后于具有不相关数据的模型。建立具有相关观测值的模型的最优设计的一个关键问题是,与具有不相关误差的模型相比,模型需要更多的技术假设。在前一种情况下,需要对信息矩阵进行近似,也没有通用有效的算法来寻找各种类型的最优设计。此外,也没有工具来确认设计的最优性。本文首先简要回顾了线性模型的最佳设计,然后重点回顾了具有相关数据的模型的最佳设计。我们在几个选定的领域讨论各种方法及其困难。在此过程中,我们提供了示例并推荐使用受自然启发的元启发式算法来找到任何标准或模型的各种最佳设计,无论是否有相关数据。
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引用次数: 0
The Natural Value of Treatment and Its Importance for Causal Inference 治疗的自然价值及其对因果推理的重要性
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-110756
Aaron L. Sarvet, Mats J. Stensrud
The natural treatment value (NTV) is the value a treatment takes when it is not altered by an intervention. This observable random variable is foundational to statistical causal inference. On the one hand, identification hinges on our substantive knowledge about the NTV. On the other hand, the NTV is a defining feature of canonical estimands, like the average treatment effect in the treated, local average treatment effects, and natural effects in mediation analysis. In this article, we argue why an explicit and formal consideration of the NTV is important in statistics and related fields, and describe its role in guiding statistical analysis, formulating identification conditions, falsifying assumptions, and relating different estimands. We also review a growing literature studying estimands explicitly defined by the NTV. This allows us to highlight a subtle, often-overlooked identification issue that challenges the study of dynamic regimes that depend on the NTV. Finally, we illustrate how NTV parameters are often motivated by pragmatic concerns, and we consider the practical relevance of some of these estimands.
自然处理值(NTV)是指不受干预改变的处理值。这个可观察的随机变量是统计因果推理的基础。一方面,识别依赖于我们对NTV的实质性知识。另一方面,NTV是典型估计的定义特征,就像被处理的平均处理效应,局部平均处理效应和中介分析中的自然效应一样。在本文中,我们讨论了为什么明确和正式考虑NTV在统计学和相关领域是重要的,并描述了它在指导统计分析、制定识别条件、伪造假设和关联不同估计方面的作用。我们还回顾了越来越多的研究NTV明确定义的估计的文献。这使我们能够强调一个微妙的,经常被忽视的识别问题,它挑战了依赖于NTV的动态机制的研究。最后,我们说明了NTV参数通常是如何被实用主义的关注所激发的,并且我们考虑了其中一些估计的实际相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Statistics for Animal Tracking Data 动物追踪数据统计
IF 7.9 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034603
Vianey Leos-Barajas, Ignacio Alvarez-Castro, Juan M. Morales
Advances in technology are paving the way for researchers to remotely track wild animals and collect massive, high-resolution animal movement data sets with temporal and/or spatial structure. However, the rate at which data are becoming available is outpacing the development of statistical methodology that can adequately analyze them. In this article, we cover the most widely used modeling approaches for the analysis of animal movement data and various extensions that have been proposed for each modeling framework, as well as challenges that remain. There are several newer statistical challenges that researchers have tried to tackle in recent years, such as modeling data streams collected at vastly different temporal resolutions from multiple devices to study animal behavior and incorporating physiological processes as drivers of animal movement. We conclude with additional statistical challenges and opportunities that remain to advance the study of animal movement.
技术的进步为研究人员远程跟踪野生动物和收集具有时间和/或空间结构的大量高分辨率动物运动数据集铺平了道路。但是,获得数据的速度超过了能够充分分析数据的统计方法的发展速度。在本文中,我们将介绍用于分析动物运动数据的最广泛使用的建模方法,以及针对每种建模框架提出的各种扩展,以及仍然存在的挑战。近年来,研究人员试图解决一些新的统计挑战,例如从多个设备以不同时间分辨率收集的数据流建模,以研究动物行为,并将生理过程作为动物运动的驱动因素。最后,我们提出了更多的统计挑战和机遇,这些挑战和机遇仍然可以促进动物运动的研究。
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引用次数: 0
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Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application
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