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Sequential Detection of an Arbitrary Transient Change Profile by the FMA Test 用FMA试验顺序检测任意瞬态变化剖面
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-21 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2023.2171056
Fatima Ezzahra Mana, Blaise Kévin Guépié, Igor Nikiforov
Abstract This article addresses the sequential detection of transient changes by using the finite moving average (FMA) test. It is assumed that a change occurs at an unknown (but nonrandom) change point and the duration of postchange period is finite and known. We relax the assumption that the profile of a transient change is chosen so that the log-likelihood ratios of the observations are associated random variables (r.v.s) in the prechange mode. Hence, the profile of the transient change is arbitrary and it is not necessarily of constant sign for a distribution with monotone likelihood ratio. A new upper bound for the worst-case probability of false alarm is proposed. It is shown that the optimization of the window-limited cumulative sum (CUSUM) test again leads to the FMA test. Three particular transient changes are considered: in the Gaussian mean, in the Gaussian variance, and in the parameter of exponential distribution. In the first case, a comparison between the bounds for the FMA test operating characteristics and the exact operating characteristics calculated by numerical integration is used to estimate the sharpness of the bounds. In the second and third cases, special attention is paid to the calculation of the FMA distribution in the case of arbitrary profile. The method of convolution is used to solve the problem.
摘要本文介绍了使用有限移动平均(FMA)测试对瞬态变化进行顺序检测的方法。假设变化发生在未知(但非随机)的变化点,并且变化后周期的持续时间是有限和已知的。我们放宽了这样的假设,即选择瞬态变化的轮廓,使得观测的对数似然比是预变化模式中的相关随机变量(r.v.s)。因此,瞬态变化的轮廓是任意的,对于具有单调似然比的分布来说,它不一定是常数符号。提出了一个新的虚警最坏情况概率的上界。结果表明,窗限累积和(CUSUM)检验的优化再次导致了FMA检验。考虑了三种特殊的瞬态变化:高斯均值、高斯方差和指数分布参数。在第一种情况下,FMA测试操作特性的边界与通过数值积分计算的精确操作特性之间的比较用于估计边界的锐度。在第二种和第三种情况下,特别注意任意剖面情况下FMA分布的计算。使用卷积的方法来解决这个问题。
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引用次数: 2
On the exact constants in one-sided maximal inequalities for Bessel processes 关于贝塞尔过程单侧极大不等式的精确常数
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2150778
C. Makasu
Abstract In this paper, we establish a one-sided maximal moment inequality with exact constants for Bessel processes. As a consequence, we obtain an exact constant in the Burkholder-Gundy inequality. The proof of our main result is based on a pure optimal stopping problem of the running maximum process for a Bessel process. The present results extend and complement a number of related results previously known in the literature.
摘要本文建立了贝塞尔过程具有精确常数的单侧极大矩不等式。因此,我们在Burkholder-Gundy不等式中得到了一个精确常数。我们的主要结果的证明是基于一个贝塞尔进程运行最大进程的纯最优停止问题。目前的结果扩展和补充了文献中先前已知的一些相关结果。
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引用次数: 1
Asymptotic optimality of a robust two-stage procedure in multivariate Bayes sequential estimation 多元贝叶斯序列估计中稳健两阶段过程的渐近最优性
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2154364
Leng-Cheng Hwang
Abstract Within the Bayesian framework, a robust two-stage procedure is proposed to deal with the problem of multivariate sequential estimation of the unknown mean vector with weighted squared error loss and fixed cost per observation. The proposed procedure depends on the present data but not on the distributions of outcome variables or the prior. It is shown that the proposed procedure shares the asymptotic properties with the optimal fixed-sample-size procedures for the arbitrary distributions and the asymptotically pointwise optimal procedures for the distributions of a multivariate exponential family with a large class of prior distributions. Simulation results indicate that the proposed two-stage procedure is robust to misspecification of the true parameters of the prior distribution and outperforms the purely sequential procedure and the asymptotically pointwise optimal procedure in terms of robustness.
摘要在贝叶斯框架下,提出了一种鲁棒的两阶段方法来处理具有加权平方误差损失和固定每次观测代价的未知均值向量的多变量序列估计问题。所建议的程序取决于当前的数据,而不取决于结果变量的分布或先验。结果表明,该过程与任意分布的最优固定样本大小过程和具有大量先验分布的多元指数族分布的渐近点向最优过程具有相同的渐近性质。仿真结果表明,所提出的两阶段方法对先验分布真实参数的错误规范具有较强的鲁棒性,鲁棒性优于纯序列方法和渐近点优化方法。
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引用次数: 0
A restricted subset selection procedure for selecting the largest normal mean under heteroscedasticity 异方差条件下选择最大正态均值的一个受限子集选择过程
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2159042
Elena M. Buzaianu, Pinyuen Chen, Lifang Hsu
Abstract This article considers the goal of selecting the population with the largest mean among k normal populations when variances are not known. We propose a Stein-type two-sample procedure, denoted by for selecting a nonempty random-size subset of size at most m ( ) that contains the population associated with the largest mean, with a guaranteed minimum probability whenever the distance between the largest mean and the second largest mean is at least where m, and are specified in advance of the experiment. The probability of a correct selection and the expected subset size of are derived. Critical values/procedure parameters that are required for certain k, m, and are obtained by solving simultaneous integral equations and are presented in tables.
摘要本文考虑在方差未知的情况下,在k个正态总体中选择平均值最大的总体的目标。我们提出了一种Stein型双样本程序,表示为选择一个大小最大为m()的非空随机大小子集,该子集包含与最大平均值相关的总体,只要最大平均值和第二大平均值之间的距离至少在m处,就有保证的最小概率,并且是在实验之前指定的。导出了正确选择的概率和预期的子集大小。某些k、m所需的临界值/程序参数,通过求解联立积分方程获得,并在表中列出。
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引用次数: 0
Exact Inference in a Tetranomial Distribution 四项分布中的精确推断
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2123517
P. Sultana, M. Pal, B. Sinha
Abstract Sequential sampling plans for unbiased estimation of the Bernoulli parameter ‘p’ and its functions have been studied almost 70 years back. An extension of the idea to parametric function estimation in a tetranomial distribution has been considered in this paper. The cell probabilities are taken to be p 2, q 2, r 2 and 2(pq+pr+qr), satisfying p, q, r > 0, p +q +r = 1. Some illustrative examples have been studied to demonstrate the underlying concepts and the computational procedure. The emphasis is on unbiased estimation in the exact sense which makes it difficult and challenging.
摘要:对伯努利参数“p”及其函数的无偏估计的序列抽样计划已经研究了近70年。本文考虑将这一思想推广到四次分布中的参数函数估计。小区概率取为p2,q2,r2和2(pq+pr+qr),满足p,q,r > 0,p+q+r = 1.已经研究了一些说明性的例子来演示基本概念和计算过程。重点是精确意义上的无偏估计,这使得它变得困难和具有挑战性。
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic Optimality Theory for Active Quickest Detection with Unknown PostChange Parameters. 未知变化后参数的主动最快检测渐近最优理论
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-23 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2023.2187417
Qunzhi Xu, Yajun Mei

The active quickest detection problem with unknown post-change parameters is studied under the sampling control constraint, where there are p local streams in a system but one is only able to take observations from one and only one of these p local streams at each time instant. The objective is to raise a correct alarm as quickly as possible once the change occurs subject to both false alarm and sampling control constraints. Here we assume that exactly one of the p local streams is affected, and the post-change distribution involves unknown parameters. In this context, we propose an efficient greedy-cyclic-sampling-based quickest detection algorithm, and show that our proposed algorithm is asymptotically optimal in the sense of minimizing the detection delay under both false alarm and sampling control constraints. Numerical studies are conducted to show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed algorithm.

在采样控制约束条件下,研究了具有未知变化后参数的主动最快检测问题,即系统中有 p 个本地流,但在每个时间瞬时只能从这 p 个本地流中的一个进行观测。我们的目标是,一旦发生变化,在误报和采样控制的约束下,尽快发出正确的警报。在此,我们假设 p 个本地流中正好有一个受到影响,而变化后的分布涉及未知参数。在这种情况下,我们提出了一种高效的基于贪婪循环采样的最快检测算法,并证明了我们提出的算法在误报和采样控制约束条件下检测延迟最小的意义上是渐近最优的。我们还进行了数值研究,以证明所提算法的有效性和适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Designing of Variables Double Sampling Plan Under Rectifying Inspection for Consumer Protection 消费者权益保护整改检查变量双抽样方案的设计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2149804
P. Jeyadurga, S. Balamurali
Abstract Designing of acceptance sampling plans based on operating characteristics fail to prescribe the corrective action for rejected lots although they guarantee the producer’s and the consumer’s protection at their corresponding quality levels. But, rectification sampling inspection plan suggests 100% inspection for rejected lots and hence, the producer’s risk is reduced and also there is a guarantee to the consumer by restricting upper limit of the maximum expected proportion of non-conforming of the shipping lot. Although the variables single sampling plan for rectifying inspection is available, variables double sampling inspection plan under rectifying inspection has not yet been designed. Hence, in this paper, we design a variables double sampling plan for rectifying inspection indexed by acceptable quality level and average outgoing quality limit to meet the needs of the producer as well as the consumer. A non-linear optimization problem is developed to determine the optimal parameters with minimum average sample number at acceptable quality level for both cases of standard deviation are known and unknown. We investigate the validation and limitation of the proposed plan through the simulation study and industrial application of the proposed plan is also given. It can be confirmed from the investigations on the results that in many situations, variables double sampling plan designed under rectifying inspection is more economical than variables single sampling plan designed with the same conditions in providing the same protection to consumer.
摘要基于操作特性设计的验收抽样计划未能规定拒收批次的纠正措施,尽管它们保证了生产商和消费者在相应质量水平上的保护。但是,整改抽样检验计划建议对拒收批次进行100%的检验,因此,通过限制装运批次的最大预期不合格比例的上限,降低了生产商的风险,也为消费者提供了保障。虽然有整改检查的变量单抽样计划,但整改检查下的变量双抽样检查计划尚未设计。因此,在本文中,我们设计了一个以可接受质量水平和平均出厂质量限为指标的变量双抽样检验计划,以满足生产商和消费者的需求。开发了一个非线性优化问题,以确定在已知和未知标准偏差的两种情况下,在可接受质量水平下具有最小平均样本数的最优参数。通过仿真研究,研究了该方案的有效性和局限性,并给出了该方案在工业上的应用。从调查结果可以证实,在许多情况下,在纠正检查下设计的变量双抽样计划比在相同条件下设计的可变单抽样计划更经济,为消费者提供相同的保护。
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引用次数: 1
A numerical approach to sequential multi-hypothesis testing for Bernoulli model 伯努利模型序贯多假设检验的数值方法
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-10 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2023.2215825
A. Novikov
Abstract In this article, we deal with the problem of sequential testing of multiple hypotheses. The main goal is minimizing the expected sample size (ESS) under restrictions on the error probabilities. We take, as a criterion of minimization, a weighted sum of the ESSs evaluated at some points of interest in the parameter space, aiming at its minimization under restrictions on the error probabilities. We use a variant of the method of Lagrange multipliers based on the minimization of an auxiliary objective function (called Lagrangian) combining the objective function with the restrictions, taken with some constants called multipliers. Subsequently, the multipliers are used to make the solution comply with the restrictions. We develop a computer-oriented method of minimization of the Lagrangian function that provides, depending on the specific choice of the parameter points, optimal tests in different concrete settings, as in Bayesian, Kiefer-Weiss, and other settings. To exemplify the proposed methods for the particular case of sampling from a Bernoulli population, we develop a set of computer algorithms for designing sequential tests that minimize the Lagrangian function and for the numerical evaluation of test characteristics like the error probabilities and the ESS. We implement the algorithms in the R programming language. The program code is available in a public GitHub repository. For the Bernoulli model, we made a series of computer evaluations related to the optimality of sequential multi-hypothesis tests, in a particular case of three hypotheses. A numerical comparison with the matrix sequential probability ratio test is carried out. A method of solution of the multi-hypothesis Kiefer-Weiss problem is proposed and is applied for a particular case of three hypotheses in the Bernoulli model.
摘要本文研究了多假设的序贯检验问题。主要目标是在误差概率的限制下最小化期望样本量。在误差概率的限制下,我们将在参数空间中某些兴趣点处评估的ESSs的加权和作为最小化准则,目的是使ESSs最小化。我们使用拉格朗日乘子方法的一种变体,该方法基于辅助目标函数(称为拉格朗日)的最小化,将目标函数与限制结合起来,并采用一些称为乘子的常数。随后,使用乘法器使解符合约束条件。我们开发了一种面向计算机的拉格朗日函数最小化方法,该方法根据参数点的具体选择,在不同的具体设置(如贝叶斯、Kiefer-Weiss和其他设置)中提供最佳测试。为了举例说明从伯努利总体中抽样的特定情况下提出的方法,我们开发了一套计算机算法,用于设计使拉格朗日函数最小化的顺序测试,并用于对测试特征(如误差概率和ESS)进行数值评估。我们用R编程语言实现算法。该程序代码可在GitHub公共存储库中获得。对于伯努利模型,我们对顺序多假设检验的最优性进行了一系列计算机评估,在三个假设的特定情况下。并与矩阵序列概率比检验进行了数值比较。提出了一种求解多假设Kiefer-Weiss问题的方法,并应用于伯努利模型中三个假设的特殊情况。
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引用次数: 0
Detecting an intermittent change of unknown duration 检测持续时间未知的间歇性变化
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2023.2211126
Grigory Sokolov, V. Spivak, A. Tartakovsky
Abstract Oftentimes, in practice, the observed process changes statistical properties at an unknown point in time and the duration of a change is substantially finite, in which case one says that the change is intermittent or transient. We provide an overview of existing approaches for intermittent change detection and advocate in favor of a particular setting driven by the intermittent nature of the change. We propose a novel optimization criterion that is more appropriate for many applied areas such as the detection of threats in physical computer systems, near-Earth space informatics, epidemiology, pharmacokinetics, etc. We argue that controlling the local conditional probability of a false alarm, rather than the familiar average run length to a false alarm, and maximizing the local conditional probability of detection is a more reasonable approach versus a traditional quickest change detection approach that requires minimizing the expected delay to detection. We adopt the maximum likelihood (ML) approach with respect to the change duration and show that several commonly used detection rules (cumulative sum [CUSUM], window-limited [WL]-CUSUM, and finite moving average [FMA]) are equivalent to the ML-based stopping times. We discuss how to choose design parameters for these rules and provide a comprehensive simulation study to corroborate intuitive expectations.
摘要通常,在实践中,观察到的过程在未知的时间点改变统计特性,并且改变的持续时间基本上是有限的,在这种情况下,可以说改变是间歇性的或瞬态的。我们概述了间歇性变化检测的现有方法,并支持由变化的间歇性驱动的特定设置。我们提出了一种新的优化标准,该标准更适用于许多应用领域,如物理计算机系统中的威胁检测、近地空间信息学、流行病学、药代动力学等,与需要最小化检测的预期延迟的传统最快变化检测方法相比,最大化检测的局部条件概率是更合理的方法。我们采用了关于变化持续时间的最大似然(ML)方法,并表明几种常用的检测规则(累积和[CUSUM]、窗口受限[WL]-CUSUM和有限移动平均[FMA])等效于基于ML的停止时间。我们讨论了如何为这些规则选择设计参数,并提供了一个全面的模拟研究来证实直观的预期。
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引用次数: 1
Proof of a Key Inequality for Lattice Event Probabilities with Equal Odds 等奇格事件概率的一个关键不等式的证明
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2129689
B. Levin, C. Leu
Abstract Levin and Leu (2021) introduced some key inequalities that underlie the lower bound formula for the probability of lattice events when using adaptive members of the Levin-Robbins-Leu family of sequential subset selection procedures for binary outcomes. Here we provide a rigorous proof of the key inequality for each adaptive procedure in the special case of equal odds parameters. We also provide some further insight into why the key inequality holds for arbitrary odds parameters and we present a complete proof in that case for a simple yet non-trivial prototype example. Two errata in the abovementioned publication are also corrected herein.
摘要Levin和Leu(2021)介绍了一些关键不等式,这些不等式是在使用序列子集选择程序的Levin-Robbins-Leu家族的自适应成员进行二元结果时格事件概率下界公式的基础。在等优势参数的特殊情况下,我们为每个自适应过程提供了关键不等式的严格证明。我们还进一步深入了解了为什么关键不等式适用于任意赔率参数,并为一个简单但不平凡的原型例子提供了在这种情况下的完整证明。上述出版物中的两个勘误表也在本文中进行了更正。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Sequential Analysis-Design Methods and Applications
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